Monthly Archives: May 2011

Foreclosure prevention legislation fails in Sacramento, fortunately

In a rare wise move in Sacramento, the California state Senate killed a bill that would have dramatically changed the foreclosure process.

Irvine Home Address … 76 PACIFIC Crst Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price …… $999,900

What Does It Matter To Ya

When You Got A Job To Do

You Gotta Do It Well

You Gotta Give The Other Fellow Hell

Paul McCartney & Wings — Live and Let Die

Each month when lenders get their dreadful delinquency reports, they make decisions on who is pushed through to auction and who is allowed to squat. The let some mortgage live and the let others die.

What is dual track foreclosure?

Foreclosure is the final act in a much longer drama. Foreclosure is akin to the river card in a game of poker or the verdict in a long civil trial. In poker many hands are decided before the river card is played, and in civil litigation most cases are settled without going to court.

Foreclosure is a threat to compel action. The lender wants the borrower to repay under the terms of the loan. Lenders don't want to get their money back and find another borrower, they would rather the borrower keep making their payments.

Dual track foreclosure is the process of reviewing loan modification application while simultaneously pursuing a foreclosure. Why do lenders do this? Well, many loan modifications get denied because the borrowers don't demonstrate hardship. In those cases, the foreclosure process should go forward unimpeded. Further, any loan modification is still a negotiation, and without the threat of imminent foreclosure, many borrowers don't recognize the weakness of their bargaining position.

Dual track foreclosure processing is necessary to prevent unwarranted delays by borrowers who seek loan modifications for which they don't qualify. If we eliminate the practice and force all lenders to “fully evaluate” borrowers for loan modifications, they merely add time to the process and allow delinquent mortgage squatters to further game the system.

California bill ending 'dual track' foreclosures faces key vote

Pursuing foreclosure even if a borrower has sought a loan modification has faced criticism. The Senate measure would require a lender to fully evaluate a homeowner for a loan modification first.

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times — April 27, 2011

A proposed law facing a key vote in Sacramento on Wednesday would require lenders in California to make a decision on mortgage modifications for delinquent homeowners before beginning the repossession process, in effect ending “dual track” foreclosures in the state.

Financial institutions commonly pursue foreclosure even if a borrower has requested a loan modification, a two-track process the lending industry has argued is necessary to protect its investments. But dual tracking is under fire from regulators and lawmakers in the wake of last year's “robo-signing” scandal, which revealed widespread foreclosure errors.

Robo-signer did not reveal widespread foreclosure errors. That false perceptions probably exists in the minds of the public because the political Left heated up the rhetoric, but the Robo-signer investigations and subsequent lawsuits have not demonstrated a pattern of wrongful foreclosure. People who make their payments do not get foreclosed on.

The California Homeowner Protection Act,

People with no equity facing foreclosure do not own anything. Their names may be on title, but the only thing they own is their loan.

authored by state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Sen. Mark Leno (D-San Francisco), is one of the furthest-reaching efforts to limit the practice. Several other states have passed requirements for third-party groups to oversee mediations between mortgage servicers and homeowners.

The California bill, SB 729, would require a lender to fully evaluate a borrower for a loan modification before filing a notice of default, the first stage in the formal repossession process, and a significant change in the way foreclosures are conducted in the Golden State.

What does it mean to “fully evaluate?” And when did it become an entitlement for borrowers to get a loan modification? Aren't these private contracts? The attorneys will generate a lot of fees fighting over the definition of “fully.” No matter what banks do, lawsuits will be filed stating they haven't done enough.

The law would give delinquent homeowners the right to sue their lenders to stop foreclosures if they believe the requirement to properly evaluate their loan modification requests had not been followed. If the sale occurs without the proper evaluation, homeowners would also be given the right to sue for damages or to void a foreclosure sale for up to a year after the sale.

Auction prices would crumble if that provision were passed. With the one-year clawback, no title insurer would touch a property for a full year after an auction. Cash buyers would be required to hold for a full year unless they wanted to sell to another cash buyer. Bank REO would be similarly encumbered.

Such a change is necessary in the state because the two-track process often leads to unintended foreclosures by mortgage servicers that “don't know what they are doing” and often bungle the loan modification process, Leno said in an interview.

“We know of folks not only entering the loan modification process, but folks who have already been accepted, and are making timely loan modification payments, and then getting a knock on their door and being told 'your home will be sold,'” Leno said. “The stories are many and horrifying.”

It may be the perception of many who get foreclosed upon that the bank didn't give them the loan modification they deserved. However, the foreclosure may also be the bank's way of saying no, particularly if the borrower is hiding assets or otherwise gaming the system.

Groups representing lenders said the legislation overreaches and would only inhibit the state housing market's recovery by slowing down an already drawn out foreclosure timeline.

Yes, it would slow down the foreclosure process and deepen the ongoing crash in house prices. BTW, the housing market recovery meme needs to die now that we took out the 2009 lows.

California's comparatively streamlined foreclosure system, which allows for a home to be taken back without a court order, has helped the state work through a foreclosure glut relatively quickly and recover faster than other hard-hit states.

Nothing has recovered in California. The crash is ongoing.

“It is just not good for the housing market, which is not good for the state economy, especially when we are at 12% unemployment,” said Dustin Hobbs, a spokesman for the California Mortgage Bankers Assn. “It is a reaction, an overreaction, to procedural mistakes,” he continued, “and this doesn't really get at solving any of those problems.”

My disdain for lenders is widely known, but sometimes they are right. This is a dumb idea at the wrong time that solves none of the problems with the housing market.

The bill also would make it more difficult for investors to purchase, renovate and resell bank-owned properties to first-time buyers because it gives foreclosed-on homeowners a year to sue after a foreclosure sale, critics said. Home buying by investors has been a significant driver of California home sales since the housing market hit bottom two years ago.

Yes, this would seriously impact the auction market and the resale market within a year thereof.

“It's unlikely that any prospective home buyer would want to buy these properties with that lingering uncertainty hanging over their heads,” said Beth Mills, a spokeswoman for the California Bankers Assn. The bill also would require mortgage servicers to:

• Prove they have a right to foreclose;

• Adhere to new timelines when evaluating borrowers for possible loan modifications;

• Provide an explanation letter detailing why a mortgage modification was not granted if a borrower is denied;

• Make a declaration of compliance with the law each time a notice of default is filed.

The bill also would allow a state banking regulator or the state attorney general to take action against lenders if the law isn't followed. …

So how much cost would those provisions add to the process? Who is paying that bill? Lenders? Taxpayers?

Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed.

Foreclosure prevention legislation fails in Sacramento

A proposed law that would have ended “dual track” foreclosures in California failed to win a key vote in Sacramento on Wednesday.

The California bill, SB 729, would have required a lender to fully evaluate a borrower for a loan modification before filing a notice of default, the first stage in the formal repossession process.

Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima) abstained from voting following a hearing in the state Senate's Banking and Financial Institutions Committee and the bill failed 3-3.

The California Homeowner Protection Act, authored by state Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Sen. Mark Leno (D-San Francisco), was one of the furthest-reaching attempts to limit dual tracking, a common practice among financial institutions in which they pursue foreclosure even if a borrower has requested a loan modification.

The two-track process is one the lending industry has argued is necessary to protect its investments. But the practice is under fire from regulators and lawmakers in the wake of last year's “robo-signing” scandal, which revealed widespread foreclosure errors.

The most cowardly way politicians kill a bill is to let it die in a committee without a nay vote. It's sad what they have to go through in order to do the right thing. I suppose its the price they pay for pandering the rest of the time.

Ordinarily, I wouldn't rejoice when the banks win one, but this was a bad bill that deserved to go down to defeat.

A 2003 high-end rollback

First and ONLY Showing Wednesday at 6pm May 4th! CORPORATE OWNED REO; NOT A SHORT SALE

Today's featured property is a previously rare 2003 rollback at Irvine's high end. With weak sales and prices reaching 2003 levels across much of Irvine, properties like this will be more common.

  • The owner paid $1,015,000 on 12/15/2003. He used a $761,250 first mortgage and a $253,750 down payment.
  • On 1/29/2004 he opened a $150,000 HELOC.
  • On 2/13/2004 he got a second $150,000 HELOC with a different lender.
  • On 1/25/2005 he obtained a $418,750 HELOC.
  • On 3/28/2008 he took out a $100,000 loan from Anaheim General Hospital. Perhaps that is the Corporate owned reference in the description. The owner on title is the individual who HELOCed himself into oblivion and quit paying the mortgage.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/28/2011

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/21/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

I think the description is likely bullshit. From what my records show, this is likely to be a short sale unless a bidding war happens this afternoon at 6PM and the offered price makes this borrower whole. In this market, I don't see that happening.

Irvine House Address … 76 PACIFIC Crst Irvine, CA 92602

Resale House Price …… $999,900

House Purchase Price … $1,015,000

House Purchase Date …. 12/15/2003

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($75,094)

Percent Change ………. -7.4%

Annual Appreciation … -0.4%

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$999,900 ………. Asking Price

$199,980 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.72% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$799,920 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$178,213 ………. Income Requirement

$4,158 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$867 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$283 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$208 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$100 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$5,617 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1003 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1012 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$358 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$145 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$4,104 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$9,999 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$9,999 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$7,999 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$199,980 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$227,977 ………. Total Cash Costs

$62,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$290,877 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 76 PACIFIC Crst Irvine, CA 92602

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 3456

$289/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Mediterranean

View: Park/Green Belt, Yes

Year Built: 2001

Community: Northpark

County: Orange

MLS#: 11-523255

Source: TheMLS

Status: Active

——————————————————————————

First and ONLY Showing Wednesday at 6pm May 4th! CORPORATE OWNED REO; NOT A SHORT SALE; PRICED FOR QUICK SALE; RARE AND PRIVATE DOUBLE SIZE LOT(12,000 SQ FT). BEAUTIFUL HOME IN NORTH PARK SQUARE WITH A LARGE FLOWING FLOOR PLAN WITH A GOURMET KITCHEN WITH GRANITE COUNTERS THAT OPENS TO LARGE FAMILY ROOM WITH COZY FIREPLACE. ONE BEDROOM DOWN AND THREE UP INCLUDING A GRAND MASTER SUITE WITH A SPA LIKE BATH + BONUS ROOM + COMPUTER CENTER. .. 3 CAR GARAGE. .. LIMITED SHOWINGS WITH 24 HOUR(OR MORE) NOTICE BUT WELL WORTH IT. .. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANTS

Foreclosure lawyer loses his California law license

A foreclosure advocate crossed the line between civil disobedience and criminality, and the State Bar Court took away his law license.

Irvine Home Address … 4111 BLACKFIN Ave Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $895,000

Has he lost his mind

Can he see or is he blind?

Can he walk at all,

Or if he moves will he fall

Is he live or dead?

Has he thoughts within his head?

We'll just pass him there

Why should we even care?

Black Sabbath — Iron Man

Writing about real estate rarely leads me to the California Bar Journal. The housing bubble has spawned a number of attorney abuses including up-front payments for loan modifications, bogus foreclosure delay tactics like the deficient Notice of Default, and other practices. However, with as bad as some of these behaviors are, nobody gets censured for going over-the-top crazy. That is until foreclosure attorney, Michael T. Pines, managed to lose his mind.

Carlsbad foreclosure lawyer loses his license

Declaring that he poses a substantial threat of harm to the public, the State Bar Court lifted the law license of MICHAEL T. PINES, the Carlsbad attorney who made national headlines by advising clients to break into their foreclosed homes and start living there again. He was placed on involuntary inactive status May 1.

The court acted at the request of the bar’s Office of Chief Trial Counsel, which asked March 11 that Pines be prohibited from practicing. Under the State Bar Act, an attorney who causes substantial harm to clients or the public can be swiftly removed from practice when the evidence suggests the harmful behavior is likely to continue and when it is likely the bar will prevail on the merits of the case. The court’s action is an interim measure pending a hearing on disciplinary charges.

The State Bar is very gratified that the court has agreed with us that Pines poses an imminent threat of harm to the public and therefore has removed him from active practice,” said Chief Trial Counsel Jim Towery. “Lawyers have an obligation to follow the law, not to break it. There are proper ways and improper ways for a lawyer to protest a court order. Taking the law into one’s own hands is an improper way and will subject the lawyer to discipline.

Pines [#77771], 51, has been unapologetic about encouraging – and often physically helping – clients hire a locksmith to get into their foreclosed homes despite warnings from the court and police to stop the illegal activity. He has argued that the foreclosures themselves are illegal, so his clients have a right to repossession since they are still the legal owners of the homes.

Has this guy lost his mind? Before he set out on a zealous mission to keep delinquent mortgage squatters in homes they have no right to, did he bother to think through the ramifications of what he was doing?

Let's say he was successful, and foreclosures are declared illegal. What would happen? At first, we would have millions of happy squatters. Shortly thereafter, all mortgage lending would stop because banks would essentially be giving away homes. Why would anyone pay their mortgage if they couldn't lose the house in foreclosure?

If Michael T. Pines would have been successful on his crusade, it would have signaled the end of lending in the real estate market.

But State Bar Court Judge Richard Honn found that Pines’ conduct harmed his clients, the public and the legal profession. “Although Pines is a seasoned attorney, he seems to have lost his ability to distinguish between zealous advocacy and lawlessness,” Honn wrote. “Legal decisions are to be made by the courts, not the litigants. (Pines’) unwillingness or inability to obey court orders and follow the laws of this state has tarnished the reputation of other attorneys and the legal community as a whole.

With all due respect to the fine and upstanding attorneys who read this blog, this guy managed to make ambulance chasers and civil litigation banditos look bad. That's a pretty low standard. Perhaps he can work as a realtor or used car salesman in his next job. In his crusade he met some upstanding citizens like Danielle Earl upon which he could build his new business.

The bar has 45 days to file formal charges. Towery said he expects the bar to seek Pines’ disbarment.

In the application for inactive enrollment, Deputy Trial Counsel Brooke Schafer noted that in none of the cases in which Pines advised his clients to re-enter their homes in Carlsbad, Newport Beach and Simi Valley did they have a legal right to do so. Pines “acts with calculated purpose,” Schafer wrote in the petition. “He is harming both his clients and the public by advising clients to take the law into their own hands, and he uses his law license as a weapon. By his behavior, actions and freely offered statements he is a clear – and ongoing – danger both to his clients and to the public.

The petition, which notes that Pines has been cited for contempt as well as criminally cited three times in less than a week, referred to three serious incidents involving break-ins and other criminal acts between October 2010 and February 2011.

On Feb. 18, he was arrested for making threats against occupants of a house that used to be owned by one of his clients, cited for trespassing on the property the following day and cited for violating a temporary restraining order at the site four days after that. He told a court his clients may break into the property again.

In October, Pines gave Newport Beach police advance notice that he and a client were going to take possession of a house the client had lost in foreclosure. Pines had claimed the foreclosure was illegal even though his client had not prevailed in court. For five hours, Pines “kept approximately seven police officers and an assistant city attorney wrapped up in his media circus” until Pines and his client were arrested, Schafer wrote in the petition.

Also in October, Schafer wrote, Pines accompanied his clients to their foreclosed Simi Valley home and advised them to break in despite a court ruling forbidding such an action. The family remained in the house for several days until the new owner got another writ of possession.

In an 18-page ruling, Honn said Pines views himself as a modern-day Henry David Thoreau, “who encouraged civil disobedience to effect universal societal benefits, including ending slavery and war. But (Pines) is not Thoreau; his cause is not slavery or war.

He “sought a few minutes of fame in front of reporters or the television cameras while he violated the law, or encouraged his clients to do so,” Honn wrote. “He used his clients as tools to accomplish these goals.”

I can appreciate this gentleman is passionate about helping people with real estate, and he is obviously an intelligent man. However, he lacks the wisdom to guide that passion and intelligence toward something which contributes to the greater good. As I pointed out above, success for him would have caused the housing market to cease functioning, and our banks to become undeniably insolvent.

Perhaps he didn't care? Maybe he just wanted his 15 minutes of fame? He got it.

At least some of it went toward improvements

Most of the HELOC abuse cases I profile show few if any improvements to the property. This leaves most readers, me included, asking “where did you spend all the money?”

At least with today's featured property, some of it was spent improving the property.

  • My property records don't go back to the 1988 purchase for $327,000, but it is likely the owners used a 20% down payment.
  • By 6/27/2001 through sophisticated financial management, the owners grew their mortgage to $384,000.
  • On 1/15/2002 they obtained a $96,000 HELOC.
  • On 7/30/2004 they got a $650,000 first mortgage. The listing says they tore the property down to the studs in 2005. I doubt it. This $170,000 increase in their mortgage is the largest of their serial refinances.
  • On 10/5/2004 they opened a $135,700 HELOC, perhaps to finish paying for the renovation.
  • On 3/28/2007 they refinanced with a $784,000 first mortgage.
  • On 5/14/2007 they opened a $116,000 HELOC.
  • On 11/19/2009 they either paid down the mortgage, or obtained some principal forgiveness as their final mortgage amount is shown as $696,000.
  • Peak mortgage equity withdrawal is over $600,000.

Irvine House Address … 4111 BLACKFIN Ave Irvine, CA 92620

Resale House Price …… $895,000

House Purchase Price … $327,000

House Purchase Date …. 10/24/1988

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $514,300

Percent Change ………. 157.3%

Annual Appreciation … 0.1%

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$895,000 ………. Asking Price

$179,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.72% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$716,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$159,517 ………. Income Requirement

$3,722 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$776 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$186 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,684 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$898 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$906 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$320 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$244 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,444 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$8,950 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$8,950 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$7,160 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$179,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$204,060 ………. Total Cash Costs

$52,700 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$256,760 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 4111 BLACKFIN Ave Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 5

Baths: 4

Sq. Ft.: 2800

$320/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1971

Community: 0

County: Orange

MLS#: S657149

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 2 days

——————————————————————————

ARE YOU THINKING NEWER HOME IN IRVINE? – THIS IS A MUST SEE!! Home has been completely rebuilt from the studs in 2005. Over $400,000 invested in unimaginable upgrades. BETTER THAN NEW- YET, NO MELLO ROOS, NO HOA, LOW TAX RATE. All natural materials used in every inch. 4 Bed & 3 bath upstairs + one bed & bath downstairs. Chef Kitchen, Top of the line Blue Star gas range and oven, industrial grade, Heated Marble Floors, Home Theater System w/ pull down screen from the ceiling, Sky lights, Modern recesses lights throughout, Whole house fan, triple pane windows, Water Softener and reverse osmosis water filter systems, Smart Home Electric System let you control the entire home from a remote or from your smart phone, Salt Water Pool and Spa, Private Yard, Open and Specious- Interior design was reconfigured to have the kitchen opened to both Living /Dining Room and to the family room. Unreal Master Bath with Jacuzzi Tub and Much Much more * * see full list in Media section * *

There are many ways to spend $400,000 for improvements. Do you think it was money well spent?

House price double dip accelerating: bottom follows capitulation

The decline in house prices is pickup up speed. The market will find a bottom when sellers holding out for higher prices capitulate and sell in despair.

Irvine Home Address … 33 LAKEPINES Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $225,000

Break me off, tie me down, tear me down

Make me feel like a little dog

We're a waste, we're a waste, we're a waste

And we're going down the drain, down the drain, down the drain

‪Lilly Wood & The Prick – Down The Drain‬

Far from getting better, the housing market in the United States is accelerating its swirling decent into the crapper.

Housing Crash 2.0 Is Accelerating

Published: Tuesday, 26 Apr 2011 — By: John Carney, Senior Editor, CNBC.com

House prices are falling again—and the decline is accelerating.

Today’s big housing numbers comes from the Case-Shiller home price indexes. The indexes, which measure how prices have changed over the previous three months, show prices falling in every major metropolitan area (except, weirdly, Detroit). The 20-city average declined 3.3 percent from a year ago, and 1.1 percent from the previous three-month average.

This is the seventh successive month of widespread price declines.

Last week we took a look at how the NAr spins data with bullshit. How do you think they would spin that uncomfortable series of data points?

The housing recovery began to stall last spring, after the government’s home-buyer tax credit expired. The three-month moving average of the Case-Shiller 20-city index showed that gains in home pricing slowing to a crawl in early summer and actually reversing in July and August. By September, it was clear that home prices were going into a serious decline.

The November numbers (which are actually the three-month average of September, October and November) showed a 1 percent decline over the previous month. Prices kept dropping by 1 percent in December and January.

February’s data shows that the decline is actually accelerating a bit.

This is the opposite of a recovery—it’s a crash building steam.

We’ve become almost passé about home price declines. A 3.3 percent year-over-year decline doesn’t seem all that shocking anymore. But prior to the recent housing crash, such a steep decline was unheard of.

The housing market is performing much worse than expected. In 2009, the Mortgage Bankers Association predict home prices would rise by 3 percent in 2011. Last year, the consensus among economists interviewed for the MacroMarkets LLC September survey was that home prices would fall by just 0.8 percent in 2011. A month ago, the economists were gloomier, estimating that housing prices would fall 1.38 percent by the end of the year. That estimate now looks overly optimistic.

I predicted that prices would fall between 2% and 5% this year. The consensus estimates are finally catching up to me. My detractors have inaccurately labled me as bearish. I do believe prices are going to fall, particularly locally, but I am only bearish when and where conditions suggest real estate is overpriced and likely to fall in value.

I am very bullish on Las Vegas real estate, despite the fact prices will continue to fall there. When cashflow becomes very positive, as it has in Las Vegas, the benefits of ownership outweigh the short-term loss in value. With low interest rates, even if prices fall further, it is entirely possible that the cost of ownership may actually go up when interest rates rise.

In Las Vegas, real estate is hated by everyone who owns. Prices are at 15-year lows and still falling. Most owners are underwater on their mortgages, and being a recourse state, they can't just walk away from their obligations.

Everyone in Las Vegas who owns wishes they didn't. The market is experiencing widespread despair. These are the best possible conditions to acquire good cashflow properties with a potential for future rebound.

Housing Bottom Comes When People Swear Off Houses

Neither housing nor employment show any sign of recovery. Nearly four years after the collapse of Countrywide, the nation’s biggest subprime lender, housing is still going down.

How far will it go? A. Gary Shilling says it will take another 20% drop in housing prices to bring them in line with their historical trend. Housing usually rises with the economy. Not more. Not less. To get back on track with the economy now, house prices have to go down.

What about over-shoot? Yes, that’s a risk too. Bubble markets don’t tend to go back to “normal” levels right away. Instead, they tend to go below normal.

Whether or not Mr. Shilling is correct with regards to Orange County, the harsh decline in prices with downside overshoot has certainly occurred in Las Vegas and a number of other subprime markets.

At first, homeowners think it is just a temporary break in an upward trend. They hold on, hoping to catch another move to the upside. Then, they gradually resign themselves to a long slump, but still believe that “you can’t go wrong on real estate, not over the long term.” Then, housing prices continue to sink. More homeowners give up. Some sell. Some default. More foreclosures depress prices even further.

The double dip is causing many real estate bulls to finally see their error in judgment. Bulls waited for three long years of serious declines to reach the illusory bottom of 2009. Now that prices are falling and gaining downside momentum, loan owners who less than a year ago thought they might be back above water soon are now faced with the reality of several more years waiting for a recovery that may never come.

The peak in foreclosures is not expected until March of 2012. When it comes – five years after the crisis began – most homeowners will be ready to throw in the towel. “Housing may go up in the long run,” they’ll say to each other, “but this downturn could last longer than I do.”

Prices are likely to drop below their historical trend. Homeowners will tell their children: “Don’t bother to buy a house. Rent. Housing is a losing proposition. It never goes up.” Then, with housing prices perhaps 25% to 40% lower than they are today, the market will have found its bottom.

When? Housing markets move slowly. It could happen by 2015, maybe 2020.

2003 rollback

Many people who bought in 2002 and 2003 believed they were buying in a normal market. In reality, they were buying into a housing bubble. Jon Lansner at the OC Register began talking about the housing bubble in 2002. Despite his early call, he was correct in his analysis. House prices were too high in 2002 and 2003 relative to incomes and historic norms. He can't be faulted for failing to anticipate just how stupid borrowers and lenders would become.

Few in real estate were seriously concerned about prices being too high in 2003. Few believed it was possible for prices to go down. Obviously, the bulls were wrong — not just a little wrong, but completely and totally wrong on all counts.

The owners of today's featured property bought on 12/23/2003, and they are paying the price for buying into the housing bubble frenzy. After nearly seven and one half years of ownership, they are going to sell for a loss.

They were conservative in their mortgage management, not that they are being rewarded for their prudence. They borrowed most of the money using a $188,000 first mortgage, a $35,250 second mortgage, and a $11,750 down payment. Despite the insanity which followed, they did not add to their mortgage, and if they get their current asking price, this will not be a short sale.

These owners did not find the pot of gold in California real estate, but through prudent management of their mortgage, they will escape with a small loss and their credit still intact.

Irvine House Address … 33 LAKEPINES Irvine, CA 92620

Resale House Price …… $225,000

House Purchase Price … $235,000

House Purchase Date …. 12/23/2003

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($23,500)

Percent Change ………. -10.0%

Annual Appreciation … -0.6%

Cost of House Ownership

————————————————-

$225,000 ………. Asking Price

$7,875 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.72% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$217,125 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$48,373 ………. Income Requirement

$1,129 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$195 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$47 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$250 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$295 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$1,915 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$105 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$275 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$14 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$48 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,598 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$2,250 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$2,250 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$2,171 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$7,875 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$14,546 ………. Total Cash Costs

$24,400 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$38,946 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 33 LAKEPINES Irvine, CA 92620

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Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 934

$241/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level, Other

Year Built: 1977

Community: 0

County: Orange

MLS#: P779013

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 6 days

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EQUITY SELLER. This beautiful 1 bedroom, 1 bath condo is located in picturesque Lakepines. This home features high smooth ceilings, warm paint and carpet colors, walk in closet, private washer/dryer hookups and a spacious fenced patio. Association amenities include 2 pools, a spa and tennis court. Great square footage and floor plan. No one above or below. No Mello Roos.