Irvine Housing Blog

That’s the million dollar question.  No one knows for sure, but it’s safe to say that local prices will continue to fall until they reach a point where the next generation of buyers can swarm in and prevent further deterioration.  Even with the govt/FED subsidizing mortgages, we still can’t find enough qualified buyers to prevent further declines.

Lee, any specifics to those areas though?

“Those two areas are gonna get crushed.”

How are these two different?

“How are these two different?”

JMHO ~ I’m generalizing here.  Those two cities experienced the price benefit of being in S Orange County, without the benefit of white collar incomes.

I remember, that time Obama printed another billion and gave it to schools in California.

Come now, David…weren’t you a children long ago?

So, because it isn’t common in the private sector, the public sector cannot have it?

It’s not offered in the private sector because it’s not sustainable. At least not for any entity that wants to be viable long term.

Just to clarify, because it doesn’t exist in the private sector means that it shouldn’t exist in the public sector?

I for one don’t mind paying them what they get. I mind not being able to get rid of incompetence. Some teachers really stink.

cruz please ponder Big C’s comment.

You’re right!  It should exist in the private sector as well.  Since, as a taxpayer, I’m paying for the public sector’s benefits, maybe the public sector can chip in and help pay for my benefits.  (But I guess that would just be returning some of my money back to me . . .)

You’re right, we should keep old cops working and on the payroll, even though a younger and more physically capable person would better serve the community in that position.

If I need someone to save my ass one day, I want the guy in the prime of his life doing it, not some 55 year old guy.  If that means we have to buy the 50 year old out (by giving him a nice retirement package) so be it.

I don’t buy that argument Cruz.  The best cops are generally the most experienced cops.

It’s a fair bet that they aren’t even retired. Just collect a pension, plus work another job. And often it is a good buddy consulting contract for public administrators, or security for ex-cops. Two incomes for some years after retiring, with one of them guaranteed. Not a bad deal. And don’t forget the health care (for the entire family).

I agree that judgment, generally, gets better with experience.  At the same time, I believe that cops need to be physically capable of doing their job.

At what age do you think cops should retire?

Anyone who risks their lives for the public for many years deserves the right to retire earlier than those of us who are safely behind a desk.

Just my opinion.

What is the difference if a cop has a gun?

Many Irvine’s cops are women. Are they “more physically capable” than a 55-year-old man?

Cruz, why do you discriminate against age?  Surely a 55 year old cop is just as capable as a 5’2 female officer.  We allow these gals with little physical capability to “serve”.

Cruz, STFU with hero card.  Not every donut eating cop is chasing down criminals.  The older, less fit guys can do paperwork and teach the younger guys.  And what the fuck is up with the excuse…I’m 50 and too old to chase criminals…maybe you need to get your fat ass shape.  There are plenty of 50+ year olds who would put a beating on guys half their age.  And that’s part of your job description (being physically fit) so don’t make any excuses.

If you can’t tell, I have had it with the people like you playing the hero card to justify raping tax payers and being able to retire at the ripe old age of 50 while you jet set around the country.  Remember, you are doing a job that requires very little education and has an endless pool of qualified applicants.  In the real world it’s called supply and demand.

How about asking…

“At what age should cops leave the force and go get jobs in the private sector?”

It’s all pure Arithmetics.

A typical person will work for 50 years contributing enough money each year to provide for 10-15 years of retired life.

It seems that public workers lobbied incredible pensions. The state spent $2 billion in 2000, now - $6 billion, it’s 200% increase. Nice!

I can’t tell if you think I’m a cop or not or if you’re just generically making statements. I’ll let you know that I’m not a cop and I’m not a public sector employee nor is anyone in my family, although I do know a few cops and other civil servants.

I have no problem paying a little extra in taxes if it means having the best teachers and police/fireman in my community. Those putting their lives on the line to keep me safe (call it the “hero” card if you want) deserve to be treated well and compensated fairly.

Cruz, there is a world of difference between being compensated fairly and raping the tax payers.  The way the system is currently set up, safety workers here in CA are raping the tax payers.  Where else can you get a job that requires at minimum a GED that guarantees well over six figures of compensation and insane retirement and healthcare benefits?  That’s right, no where else but government.  When you get their corrupt unions to bankroll corrupt politicans elections and agenda, you better bet your ass you will get overcompensated workers. 

Remember what I said, regarding supply and demand.  There are literally hundreds if not thousand of qualified candidates to fill each cop/firefighter position.  Why is that?  Because anybody with an IQ greater than 50 realizes its a giant gravy train.  Nepotism, favoritsm usually figures big in the hiring for these positions.

Since this country/state/city is broke, you will be seeing more outrage at the compensation packages that many of these public employees have.  They are ludicrous and UNSUSTAINABLE.  And the way Calpers is set up is the tax payer will make up for any bad investments if the well runs dry.  I guess you won’t have a problem paying more taxes so the heroes and retire at 50 with 90% of their salary.  Do me a favor, you can pay my portion also.  You are blind if you don’t realize what is going on!

A couple of questions that I don’t know the answer to but I’m willing to look at with an open mind:

1) what is the average pension for a cop in CA? I don’t know the answer to this but I feel like you are taking an extreme example and making it the norm?

2) what % of the overall budget do pensions make up? If it is a small %, I hardly see how it is “bankrupting” the state.

Cruz, google SB 400, this essentially let the flood gates open for the 3@50 rip off.  These pensions were retroactively gifted and pretty much guaranteed that any safety worker making a career out of it would have a six figure pension.  Do the research yourself!

Stanford released a study showing that the unfunded liability of these pensions in CA is 500B, yes that’s half a trillion dollars.  That’s no small chunk of change.

Like I said, educate yourself and you might change your opinion!

Big difference - unemployment benefits are much, much less, and don’t come with free health care as well. I don’t think you are actually going to find anyone willingly choosing to go on unemployment vs. keep a job.  And that under the table job is going to be sub-minimum wage, not a $120k per year easy street. But feel free to try it!

I was merely indicating the gaming which exists regardless of socioeconomic strata.

Yet, we are still suprised to learn of the gaping black hole that government has become, a mockery really.

My surprise is the lack of public willingness to argue for MAJOR spending cuts and accept reality.  Are we that bad at arithmetic?

You gotta be kidding me, you are asking that question!  Damn right there are people who would rather sit on their lazy asses and collect a check than go get a job. 

The last time UE checks almost ran out I heard a news story on a local all-news radio station - the reporter on the street interviewed some UE folks on the street how tough it was finding a job.  Two of the three interviewees said that they weren’t looking until their check ran out.  Yeah, not the PC story they were looking for.  Heard it once, and the story vanished off the air.

What exactly is wrong with these guys collecting their pensions and then working.  IF you saved $ for 25 years, retired from that job, went and got another job and drew down your savings from the first job, would that be wrong?  They put in their 25 years.  The deal was that they get a pension when they retired.  What are you complaining about?  I agree, 90% is overly generous.  But they have a right to the pension, that was the contact.

be careful making fun of AZDave’s wild predictions. we are a long way from the bottom and interest rates moving North might make 1999 prices in real terms, and maybe even nominal, a reality.

Who’s making fun? You’re the one calling it “wild”.

I’m just remarking that if Irvine is behind the curve and eventually gets to 1999 pricing, does that mean the other OC cities will be selling at early 1990s pricing?

A Lake Forest 3CWG 3000sft home selling for $300k? Is that possible?

I am a wild guy, what can I say.

I can’t say where Irvine is going to bottom out.  I know what I believe most of these houses are worth and I personally would not pay 1 penny above the 1998 price tag.  That doesn’t mean there are not legions of lemmings out there who will.  I just refuse to live the rest of my life in servitude to bankers.  If someone else wants to do it, I don’t care - just do it with your own money.  I am glad that at least now we are seeing the majority of buyers bring money to the table.  I believe that the majority of the money being brought though is from older buyers who still have equity in circa ‘90’s or prior purchases.  We’ll see how long this keeps going as interest rates rise and or prices stay flat for years and years.  I predict a decline is coming, but inflation is coming as well.  Maybe Irvine will hold out until inflation catches it?  We’ll see.  At least here in AZ, I’ll be ready to buy at ‘98 prices in the next couple of years.  Irvine is not my problem but it is interesting to watch.

There is no housing bubble in Irvine, the numbers prove it.

go talk to an old german person who had savings, or parents who had savings, post WWI.

do we just completely ignore purchasing power?