Today we will review two identical properties in the Guard-gated village of North Park. Both of them have the same floor plan, same HOA dues, and same schools. But one of them is classified as an attached condo, and one of them is detached. One of them is a regular sale, and the other is a short sale by Bank of America. Which one would you buy? Let’s compare the properties side-by-side.

	41 BURLINGAME Irvine, CA 92602	73 BURLINGAME Irvine, CA 92602
Listing Price	$425,600	$425,000
Beds/ bath	2 Beds + 2.5 Baths	2 Beds + 2.5 Baths
Area	1475	1500 SF
Price/ SF	$289	$283
Levels	Two Levels	Two Levels
Year Built	2000	2000
Previous sale	$339,000 in May 2002	$545,000 in 2005 $257,000 in 2000
Floor Plan	Builders Tract Name: Brisbane Builders Tract Code: BRIB Builders Name: Greystone Builders Model Code: A DETACHED CONDO	Builders Tract Name: Brisbane Builders Tract Code: BRIB Builders Name: Greystone Builders Model Code: A ATTACHED CONDO
Type of Sale	Bank of America Short Sale	Standard Sale
Elementary School	Hicks Canyon Elementary (K-5) Address: 3817 Viewpark, Irvine CA 92602 API rank 10, and API Score of 942 for 2011. For more information: http://hickscanyon.org/
Middle School	Orchard Hills (Middle School 5-7 for 2011, K-8 planned) Address: 11555 Culver Dr, Irvine CA 92602 API rank not available (new school), API score of 952 for 2011. For more information: http://ohhawks.org
High School	Arnold Beckman High School (9-12) Address: 3588 Bryan Ave, Irvine CA 92602 API rank 10, API score of 866 for 2011. For more information: http://beckman.tustin.k12.ca.us/ SAT Scores for 2011: Critical Reading 548 Math 588 Writing 571
Down payment	$85,120	$85,000
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 3.875%	$1601.00 Monthly	$1599.00 Monthly
Home Owner’s Dues	$155 + $203 = $358	$155 + $203 = $358
Mello-Roos	$1388.49 Annually $115.70 Monthly	$1388.49 Annually $115.70 Monthly
Property Tax (1.03383%)	$4505.82 Annually $375.48 Monthly	$4499.48 Annually $374.95 Monthly
Fixed Monthly Cost of owning	$2450.18	$2447.65

About the Floor-plan:

This is a two level plan. Each level has a full-size bedroom with an attached bathroom and a walk-in closet. The entry door opens into the foyer, and from the foyer you can access the independent bedroom, laundry room, porch, garage, and the staircase to the living spaces and the other bedroom upstairs. Upstairs, there is a combined living/ dining room, kitchen, and Master bedroom.

41 Burlingame is a Bank of America Short sale. I have dealt with Bank of America + Countrywide before, and it was a mess. At least it used to be. Every email gave us a hope that we would close the deal in a week, but it took almost four months to close the deal. Past four years of foreclosure experiences must have translated into better management, I hope.

The property is classified as a detached condominium. That means none of the walls of the structure are shared with the neighbors. The pictures on the MLS listing show that the fixtures, counters, flooring and cabinets need to be updated.

73 Burlingame is a standard sale, and it is an attached condominium. It shares walls with neighbors. The pictures on the MLS listing show that the house is in a move-in condition with Euro cabinetry, wood flooring and updated fixtures.

A little history of the same floor plan over the past six years…

23 Burlingame was sold in May 2006 for $625,000.

53 Burlingame was sold in March 2006 for $600,000.

63 Burlingame was sold in March 2007 for $645,000.

7 Burlingame was sold in June 2008 for 510,000.

63 Burlingame was sold in May 2008 for $500,000.

1 Burlingame was sold in October 2009 for $460,000.

15 Burlingame was sold in May 2011 for $505,000.

25 Burlingame was sold in November 2011 for $450,000.

30 Burlingame was sold in December 2011 for $450,000.

2012 has brought the prices down by $25,000. Over the period of six years, this floor plan has dropped by a whopping $175,000. What is next? Will the “Foreign Cash Buyers” save the condominiums of Irvine? What would you do?

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

The following is a list of some recents statistics for Irvine housing by neighborhood. These numbers are provided by Redfin.

Area	List Price / # of Homes Listed	Sold Price / # Homes Sold	List Per SF	Sold Per SF	% Chg M-O-M Sold Price/SF	% Chg Y-O-Y Sold Price/SF
Airport/IBC	$374K/52	$327K/18	$332	$317	15.90%	-17%
Columbus Grove	n/a
El Camino	$462K/28	$389K/6	$322	$267	-10.10%	-28.40%
Northpark	$465K/91	$412K/19	$290	$277	-3.10%	-20.90%
Northwood	$489K/78	$518K/17	$286	$292	3.90%	-7.60%
Oak Creek	$350K/33	$249K/9	$308	$261	-8.10%	-20.40%
Orange Tree	$216K/12	$205K/5	$252	$249	-4.20%	-13.50%
Portola Springs	$623K/43	$570K/7	$321	$293	16.70%	1.40%
Quail Hill	$560K/20	$512K/8	$324	$326	-5%	-13.30%
Rancho San Joaquin	n/a
Turtle Ridge	$1,672K/32	$532K/4	$493	$355	-13.80%	-25.30%
Turtle Rock	$974K/40	$545K/8	$458	$295	-20.30%	-14.20%
Shady Canyon	$5,980K/23	$2,670K/5	$720	$534	n/a	24.20%
University Park	$595K/14	$420K/7	$289	$281	-15.10%	-10.80%
University Town Center	$467K/10	$480K/1	$330	$315	-4%	n/a
West Irvine	n/a
Westpark	$552K/20	$695K/2	$331	$356	-6.60%	-11.20%
Walnut	$600K/11	$596K/4	$298	$259	-9.80%	-12.80%
Woodbridge	$435K/93	$402K/15	$317	$273	-13.10%	-6.20%
Woodbury	$611K/44	$460K/8	$314	$292	-2%	-16.80%

Note: These numbers are for January 2012. Right after I finished this chart, Redfin came out with the February numbers. I’ll update this chart with the February numbers in a few weeks.

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

31 Kelsey is a 4 bedroom, 2.5ba detached home in the Kelsey Lane tract in Oak Creek.

Kelsey Lane is a tract in the southern most part of Oak Creek and is bounded by the 405, Sand Canyon Ave, Alton Parkway, and Valley Oak. Click the picture below for a closer view.

There are 3 main floor plans in Kelsey Lane:

• Plan 1: 3 bedrooms / 2.5 baths / 1653 square feet
• Plan 2: 3-4 bedrooms / 2.5-3.5 baths / 1910-2379 square feet
• Plan 3: 4-5 bedrooms / 2.5-3.5 baths / 2079-2546 square feet

Plans 2 and 3 have a third floor option which explains the extra bed/bath/space.

In addition to 31 Kelsey, there are a couple of Plan 3s that have not quite closed:

– 82 Millbrook is bank owned, listed at $659,000, and the status is Hold Do Not Show. They are accepting offers and will submit offers to the bank on 3/5/12.

– 104 Millbrook is a short sale listed at $600,000 and the status is Backup Offers Accepted.

I didn't come across any Plan 3s that had closed recently. The closest I could find in the tract is a Plan 2x (3rd floor model) – 66 Ivywood which sold for $749,000 on 2/7/2012.

31 Kelsey is listed at $699-$739k. For the analysis below, I'll use a purchase price of $675k.

Purchase Price	$675,000
Closing costs	$20,250	3%
Total price	$695,250
Down payment	$155,250	20%
Loan Amount / Percentage Of Price	$540,000	80%
Interest Rate / Period (months)	4.25%	360
	Monthly	Yearly
Mortgage Payment	$2,656	$31,878
Interest Component	$1,913	$22,950
Property Tax	$582	$6,978	1.03%
Special Assessments	$247	$2,969	0.44%
Effective Tax rate			1.47%
Insurance	$50	$600
HOA 1	$59	$708
HOA 2	$79	$948
Cash Out	$3,673	$44,081

There are some possible adjustments that may apply to your situation. Be sure to also consider how long you may own the property (average is around 6 years), what kind of financing you actually qualify for, how much you put down, the effect of giving up the standard deduction, potential price declines, costs to sell the property, etc. The NY Times Buy or Rent calculator is a great tool that helps with some of these.

Possible Adjustments
Interest paid		$22,950
Property tax		$6,978
Total deductible		$29,928
Tax benefit	$624	$7,482	25%
Opportunity cost of down payment	-$259	-$3,105	2%
Principal paid in mortgage payment	$744	-$8,928

As far as rents, I found a couple Plan 3x models (third story option) that leased for $3300 (52 Kelsey on 11/3/2011) and $3250 (35 Pembroke on 9/3/2011). I also found several Plan 2 models that leased between $2700-$3195. I'd guess 31 Kelsey might fetch a rent of $3100/month.

So, would you buy 31 Kelsey for $675k or rent it for $3100/month?

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

Two properties that we will compare today have a lot in common. They have similar floor plans. They have the same square feet area. They are situated in two beautiful villages of Irvine. Their schools have the desirable range of API and test scores. Both have two Home Owner Association dues. The similarity doesn’t end here, they are both extremely close to ‘Eastern Transportation Corridor’. Shopping districts, proximity to freeways and hospitals is also a tie. Still, there is a price difference of $129,000. Which one would you buy?

	68 Hedge Bloom	97 Sapphire
Village	Woodbury	West Irvine
Area	1503 SF	1500 SF
Bedrooms/ Bathroom	3 Beds/2.5 Bathrooms	3 beds/ 2.5 Bathrooms
Listing Price	$495,000	$366,000 (Sold on 02/17/2012)
Price/ SF	$329	$244
Elementary School	Woodbury Elementary API Rank 9, K-6 API Growth Score 918 Language Arts 75% Math 90%	Myford Elementary API Rank 10, K-5 API Growth Score 951 Language Arts 81% Math 92%
Middle School	Sierra Vista Middle School API Rank 10, 7-8 API Growth Score 948 Language Arts 86% Math 79%	Pioneer Middle School API Rank 10, 6-8 API Growth Score 939 Language Arts 83% Math 73%
High School	Irvine High School API Rank 10, 9-12 API Growth Score 881 CAHSEE Math 95% CAHSEE Language Arts 95%	Arnold Beckman High School API Rank 10, 9-12 API Growth Score 866 CAHSEE Math 92% CAHSEE Language Arts 92%
Home Owner’s Dues	$174 + $134 = $308	$170 + $55 = $ 225
Mello Roos	$2836.12 annually 236.34 monthly	$847.63 annually $70.63 monthly
Mortgage assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 3.875%	$1862 monthly	$1376 monthly
Property Tax (Excluding Mello Roos)	$5240 annually $437 monthly	$3874.48 annually $323 monthly
Fixed Cost of owning	$2843 Monthly	$1995 Monthly

If you buy 97 Sapphire instead of 68 Hedge Bloom, and make an extra payment of $848 per month (monthly difference in fixed cost of owning), you will be paying off the loan sixteen years early. Also, there is an option of going with a 15 YR Fixed mortgage. But going by the state of economy and the housing market, would you pay off your mortgage early or build an extra savings fund with the same amount?

97 Sapphire sold for $307,500 in 2001. The owner sold it for $579,000 in 2005. Within four years, he was able to make a profit of $249,600. The house earned $62,400 each year of ownership. But it wasn’t a lucky investment for the next owner. In June 2011, the property was listed for $420,000 and the numbers were chopped off on a monthly basis trying to keep in tune with the market trends. In the end, it was a Short Sale for $366,000. The owner lost $213,000 in six years. That is a loss of $35,500 per year.

68 Hedge Bloom hasn’t built an extensive history yet, it was built in 2010. But, 148 Hedge Bloom, another version of the same floor plan, a little smaller can be a good comparison. It was sold at $436,000 in August 2010. But by August 2011 it was on the market, listed at $449,000. The house sold for $410,000 in September 2011. That’s a loss of $26,000 within a year. Another property, 35 Peony was listed for $549,000 in August 2011, and the listing price is revised to $515,000 now. The house is still on the market with a $34,000 discount. According to a listing description, a thousand people registered to buy these Woodbury homes. No takers for barely two year old houses now?

A decade ago, people used to share stories of lining up all night at the builder’s office to register for a new home, and buy the best floor plan before it was sold out. These days people share stories of the ‘good deals’ they got, or the ‘good deal’ they are waiting for. Sure, things aren’t as bad as for the rest of the country, but Irvine wasn’t immune to the discounts and price cuts as the Realtors of the Bubble predicted. All of us who toured an open house in 2008 were told that that was the worst Irvine would ever see. Recently Dow Jones climbed to 13,000. The last time it was at 13,000 was in 2008. The stock market has showed signs of improvement and so have other markets. But the same cannot be said about the housing market. The worst might be over, but it isn’t seller’s market yet. Here is a quick comparison of facts from the ‘worst Irvine could ever see’ to the ‘state Irvine is in now’.

	2008	2011
Median List Price	$500,000	$422,000
Median Sold Price	$480,000	$400,000
Median List Price/SF	$370	$309
Median Sold Price/ SF	$349	$284

What do you think about the summer this year? Will it be a buyer’s paradise, or will the seller cash in on low inventory and buyer desperation?

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

There are 22 homes for sale currently. The median sold price is $810,000 and the median sold price per square foot is $319. With inventory down by 2% on a month-to-month basis, and down 30% on a year-to-year basis, and sale-to-list price at 97%, is it time to buy in the 92602 zip code of Irvine?

Maybe, or maybe not, depending on where you want to buy in the zip code. It covers houses of West Irvine, North Park and North Park Square. Part of West Irvine and North Park Square are gated, some of North Park is guard gated. All of them have Tustin Unified School District Schools with Irvine addresses. All of them are close to Marketplace shopping. All of them have trails and parks in the neighborhood.

But still, there is as much as $75/SF price difference based on their location within 92602.

Today we will see what we pay for a 2500 SF single family residence in these three areas.

North Park:

Property Address: 14 Oroville Sts, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $895,000

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Area/ Lot Size: 2500/4709 SF

Price/ SF Area: $358

Bedrooms/ Bathrooms: 4 Bedrooms/ 2.25 Bathrooms

Down payment (20%): $179,000

Mello Roos and Special Assessments: $3167.38 annually

Mortgage assuming 20% Down payment, 30 Year Fixed @ 3.75%: $3316.00 monthly

Property Tax: $9397.50 annually (@1.05% Purchase Price)

HOA: $155

Monthly Fixed Costs: $4518

This house has been on the market for 30 days. The house is in the guard gated community, and it is within bike-able/walk-able distance to Hicks Canyon Elementary School, Orchard Hills Middle School and Arnold Beckman High School. All schools have a perfect 10 API, and great test scores. Even though the listing says the address falls under Irvine Unified School District, the schools for this area fall under Tustin Unified School District.

More information about these schools can be read here: Irvine addresses served by Tustin and Santa Ana.

The floor plan (Mendocino North, Plan C) is nice, downstairs the garage-kitchen-nook-family room-pantry are all tied in, and in all possibilities this area will be the most used area of the house. The formal dining room and living room might find very little use, ending up only as spaces for entertaining. Upstairs, the secondary bedrooms/optional loft are tied in together, and Master bedroom is private. Coming to the Master bathroom, I have a strong feeling that the architect didn’t believe in gender equality. There are two walk-in closets, one bigger than the other. There are two sinks, one with a longer counter than the other. The owner has put in a lot of work in choosing unique colors and wall papers for the walls. That might or might not appeal to an average buyer. If I want to sell a house in near future, I would choose neutral shades and finishes just to be on the safe side.

The lowest price for this house was in 2001 when it was built: $514,000.

West Irvine:

Property Address: 18 Hidden Brook, Irvine, CA 92602

Listing Price: $735,000

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Area/ Lot Size: 2478/3957 SF

Price/ SF Area: $297

Bedrooms/ Bathrooms: 4 Bedrooms/ 2.25 Bathrooms

Down payment (20%): $147,000

Mello Roos and Special Assessments: $1312.48 annually

Mortgage assuming 20% Down payment, 30 Year Fixed @ 3.75%: $2723.00 monthly

Property Tax: $7717.50 annually (@1.05% Purchase Price)

HOA: $78

Monthly Fixed Costs: $3553

This house has been on the market for 92 days. The house is not in a gated community. It is within walk-able distance to Myford Elementary School, bike-able distance to Pioneer Middle School. Arnold Beckman High School will be at a driving distance. All schools have a 10 API, and they are comparable to Irvine Schools in test scores. Once again the listing agent says that it has “Irvine Schools”. Two schools have Irvine addresses, but all of them fall under Tustin Unified School District.

More information about these schools can be read here: Irvine addresses served by Tustin and Santa Ana.

This is a custom built house. There is no tract or builder information on the MLS. But a quick look at the pictures will tell you that it might need some upgrades. Also, the house is on a “sale-pending” status.

The lowest price for this house was in 1999 when it was built: $360,000

The highest price for this house was in 2005 during the housing bubble: $770,000

The house was foreclosed in 2011 for $614,000.

It is almost close to its bubble price even though the houses in West Irvine are depreciating faster than the houses in North Park.

North Park Square:

Property Address: 36 Whitford, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $938,000 (Listing removed on 02/07/2012)

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Area/ Lot Size: 2450/6634 SF

Price/ SF Area: $376

Bedrooms/ Bathrooms: 3 Bedrooms/ 2 Bathrooms

Down payment (20%): $187,600

Mello Roos and Special Assessments: $3508.00 annually

Mortgage assuming 20% Down payment, 30 Year Fixed @ 3.75%: $3473.00 monthly

Property Tax: $9849 annually (@1.05% Purchase Price)

HOA: $140 + $74

Monthly Fixed Costs: $4800

This house has been taken off the market on 02/07/2012. The house is in a gated community, and it is within bike-able/walk-able distance to Hicks Canyon Elementary School, Orchard Hills Middle School and Arnold Beckman High School. All schools have a perfect 10 API, and great test scores. Even though the listing says the address falls under Irvine Unified School District, the schools for this area fall under Tustin Unified School District.

More information about these schools can be read here: Irvine addresses served by Tustin and Santa Ana.

The floor plan (Triana Plan A) is a single story house. Master Bedroom is private, and has a view of the backyard too. But the secondary bedroom layout leaves a lot to be desired. One of the bedrooms has a bathroom close by, but the optional third bedroom/ office space has a foyer between the bedroom and bathroom. The house backs to Bryan Avenue. It might not be the busiest street in Irvine, but it definitely gets busy around school time. Arnold Beckman High School is on the other side of the street.

The lowest price for this house was in 2003 when it was built: $527,500.

The highest price for this house was in 2009 during the housing bubble: $920,000.

Which one of these three houses would you buy?

Which floor plan appeals the most to you?

Would you buy a house with “statement” finishes on the wall and floor?

Discuss below or in the Talk Irvine thread.