Irvine Housing Blog

You hear that everybody?  Irvine homes are now 11% cheaper versus last year.  David I saw you flying over Irvine on your unicorn this morning.  Make sure you feed him enough magical beans to get back to AZ.

He said demand is off 11%, not prices.

Pretty shrill even for a shill like you.

PR did not read the blog post today before he started in with the astute observations I guess.  Was your favorite unicorn show on the cartoon channel this morning, PR?

It would also be nice if PR would put it into context.  Is he talking about just Irvine or is he talking county wide? Statewide? Nationwide?

Right now you have falling prices nationwide with pockets here and there still selling at bubble prices.  Is this the EXACT same scenario as PR’s inflationary 70’s?

SW, that’s right interest rates went up and house prices went up with inflation.  Look up the charts for yourself,  I’m not here to cater to your every need.

Look at the DTI chart which is of course backwards looking with DTI in the 1970s higher than the most recent bubble.  But of course inflation will never happen again and even if it did I’ve been told Irvine nominal prices will only go down… Never up, no never ever, not like they have since 2009.  Run the bubble bath, turn up the Kenny G and close your eyes.  Boy the way Glen Miller played.

SW, that’s right interest rates went up and house prices went up with inflation

Except now we have falling house prices (in most of the country) plus inflation.  Just like in your 70’s example!

Boy the way Glen Miller played
Songs that made the hit parade.
Guys like us we had it made,
Those were the days.

And you knew who you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man
Like Herbert Hoover again.

Didn’t need no welfare state,
Everybody pulled his weight.
Gee our old LaSalle ran great.
Those were the days.

“They may even hit 2% at some point in the near future!”

And Irvine may see 1999 prices in the future too.

Just believe.

Thooooose weeere the daaaaaaayyyys !!!

Dating yourself?  That might strain credibility.

Nothing to see here, right, Irvine HO?

PR is in rare form singing to himself on the blog today.  PR, are you taking requests?  How about “I’m Just A Girl” by No Doubt?

@DaveAzPhx:

Is there some drop to 1999 prices missing on your oh-so-clever jpg?

There can be miracles… when you believe...

Is there some drop to 1999 prices missing on your oh-so-clever jpg?

I like how you disingenuously insinuate that I have claimed Irvine prices will fall back to 1998.  I have corrected you on multiple occasions; stating that I personally would not pay above the ‘98 comp.  There is some wiggle-room with interest rates, but without the inflation, I would not want to get myself involved with an overpriced Irvine tract house if interest rates ever return to their 1998 levels which is where I ultimately believe they will go.  If inflation bails out the Irvine house debtors by that time - oh well it sucks for savers but will not be my problem.

You clearly don’t get it AZDavidPhx. They are not interested in debating you. They are only interested in debating the fictional version of you that makes absurd claims. It’s a fight they can actually win.

Nice revisionist history.

Are we doing to this again?

That last time you danced around this I actually quoted some of your posts where you said as much (even answering my question to you about it). And there were numerous times where I’ve mentioned 1999 prices and you did not deny it.

My claim is much stronger than your 2% interest rate claim on PR where he agreed with someone else’s post, but not specifically on 2% interest rates. Are you course-correcting now?

This reminds me of the time when you said the majority of Irvine residents game the system with their zero down loans and when I showed you evidence to the contrary that Irvine sales were upwards of 35%+ down, you changed your song to “Uh… those are equity flips”.

In between your Paint projects, use some Google here and you’ll find two things:

1. Several posts where you talk about 1999 prices.
2. Little, if any, posts directly from PR where he cites 2% interest rates.

So as long as you want to disingenuously insinuate your claims, I’ll accurately post mine.

It’s okay, you have an out… like you’ve said in the past, you don’t have to prove your stance, you just have to believe.

@BMS:

Oh really?

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-16 02:57 PM
[...]
I see no reason why Irvine could not revert back to 1999 prices but it all depends on your local incomes.  Your median income is much higher now than in 1999 if we believe Wikipedia.  The unknown lies in how much of the wealth destruction is going to impact Irvine.  I personally believe that the median income is going to decline.  How much so I cannot say.

Here’s another:

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2009-11-09 08:53 AM
[...]
I see no reason why 1997 prices could not be reached by the time this is over.
[...]

There are more but I guess those were from the fictional AZDave.

Yes, really.

I read your quotes from last month before I posted. There is no claim that prices will fall to 1999 levels. My read on the above is that you are taking his ambiguous language and casting it as an unambiguous prediction.

IHO, you have to love the bullshit that is made up.

It must be painful for people who years ago predicted rates to be 7-9+% by now.. To be proven so very wrong.  Watch for record low treasury rates as Greece, Ireland, etc finally default.

You are proving my point, Irvine HO.

The statement

“I see no reason why Irvine could not revert back to 1999 prices”

Is not equivalent to:

“Irvine prices shall revert to 1999 prices”

Likewise, the statement:

“I see no reason why 1997 prices could not be reached”

is not equivalent to

“1997 prices shall be reached”

I stand by every word in those quotes.  What do you think today’s house would sell for if interest rates went to 9% or 10%?

Please, keep going.  Show some more “quotes” where I have boldly stated that prices are on their way back to 1998.

@bms:

“My read on the above is that you are taking his ambiguous language and casting it as an unambiguous prediction.”

Actually, that first quote was in a response to my question directly asking him about 1999 prices. If you think that’s ambiguous but AZDave’s claim of PR’s 2% interest rate prediction is not, oh well.

@AZDave:

King of Strawman now breaks out the semantics card? Bust out the unicycle, Dave is backpedaling!

Show some more “quotes” where I have boldly stated that prices are on their way back to 1998.

I just did… you still haven’t shown me where PR directly said 2% interest rates. And quite honestly, I thought the same thing since so many people claims he did so, but when I went to look for it, I couldn’t find it. So I asked you, the proponent of “All Things PR Predicts” and you couldn’t come up with it either.

So let’s settle this now (since you didn’t last time we did this)... do you still think Irvine will go back to 1999 prices (and I may add you did say unadjusted).

I never said anything about PR’s 2% prediction. Ever. Google away. You are thinking of the fictional bigmoneysalsa.

Yeah let’s all pretend mortgage rates are 10% and play the bullshit game of what we would pay for an Irvine Home, and ignore the F out of reality.

Watch for record low treasury rates as Greece, Ireland, etc finally default.

Hey PR, let’s assume that you are right and that does happen.  How long will it last?  Days?  Weeks?  Months? Years?  Forever?  Should an Irvine House buyer get ready to take the plunge when Greece defaults?

@bgm:

“I never said anything about PR’s 2% prediction. Ever. Google away. You are thinking of the fictional bigmoneysalsa.”

No offense, but you need to read before you post a response.

Not once did I say you made that claim, just pointing out the inequity of you saying my claim is ambiguous yet AZDave’s is not.

Are you and him the same person?

David I don’t know, but the interest rate cycle is extremely long.  It could be 60 years in total, 80, 100 years who knows.  I expect this cycle to be at least another 5-10 years at a minimum. 

Though I never predicted it, 2% mortgage rates are a possibility, but I doubt that will happen.  It would take a century long interest rate cycle, or brutal deflation.  I have too much faith in the Fed’s ability to continually inflate all asset values.

It’s not backpedaling at all, Irvine HO - what you have done is taken the quote out of context.

Example:

Suppose I said to you that there is no reason that it could not rain tomorrow.  Would you go off and tell people that AZDave was predicting rain for tomorrow?  Of course not - that would be idiotic wouldn’t it?

AZDave:  “There is no reason that it could not rain tomorrow”

Irvine HO: “AZDave is predicting rain for tomorrow everybody - look, I have the quote!”

Is that the best you got?

I’ve been reading this blog for a few years and you’ve been talking about going back to 90s pricing so much, it’s why I originally asked you that question. In fact, I even found IR’s comments where he felt the same thing… but since then, he’s amended his claims and you have not. There is no “out of context”, here’s another one:

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2009-05-29 08:29 AM

A 90’s rollback as a pretty much guaranteed at this point judging by the state of the economy.

There are so many un(der)-employed people out there right now.  If any of the jobs ever do return there is going to be huge competition and the lowest bidder will win the day, driving down incomes across the board.

How are houses going to fetch these prices when everyone is earning less?

Now, I understand that things are different now so I am wondering, for the record, do you still believe that Irvine will fall to 90s pricing?

King of Strawman now breaks out the semantics card?

It’s not semantics at all - it’s just logic.  If you told me that there was no reason why it could not rain tomorrow and I went off telling everybody that you predicted rain for tomorrow - I would not call you some semantic back-pedaler for taking exception with my taking your statement out of context.  DUH.

@iho

“Are you and him the same person?”
Way to raise the level of discourse.

The fact that I haven’t criticized every falacious argument ever made on this blog doesn’t mean I can’t criticize a particular falacious argument when I see it. If that makes me guilty of “inequity”, so be it.

Yeah, because “there is no reason” is totally different. You might as well add “pretty much guaranteed at this point” to that.

You would have a point if I didn’t ask you about the rain to give it context:

IHO: Do you really think it’s going to rain tomorrow?

Dave: There is no reason that it shouldn’t.

That’s called semantics… not logic. Uh… want to try that again?

Again, answer the question:

Do you still believe Irvine will drop to 90s prices?

Or you can continue to obfuscate the obvious to throw people off the scent.

A 90’s rollback as a pretty much guaranteed at this point judging by the state of the economy.

but since then, he’s amended his claims and you have not.

Look at what the Government did to stop the free-fall, Irvine HO.  Do you think that prices stopped falling in 2009 because your local market was healthy?  On May 5 2009, it certainly looked like a guarantee that prices were on their way back to the 90’s at the height of the financial crisis and also at a time when prices were free-falling in Irvine.  What have we seen since?  The Government re-wrote the rules for banks, the Fed initiated QE, etc.

I certainly have amended my claims since May 5 2009 as is evidenced by my 2011 quotes.  The game changed from free market to socialism.

Here is my question for you -  Do you believe that your current prices would have not gone back to 90’s levels if the Government had not intervened?  I think that if you answer honestly then my quote is not that far-fetched.

IHO: Do you really think it’s going to rain tomorrow?

That’s called semantics… not logic. Uh… want to try that again?

Actually, it is logic.  A semantic difference implies 2 ways of saying the same thing.  Example:

AZDave: “I see no reason why it could not rain tomorrow”

Irvine HO: “AZDave says it might rain tomorrow!”

AZDave: “I never said it might rain - I said there was no reason that it could not”

That’s a semantic difference there.  You would agree that saying “it might rain” is not logically equivalent with “it will rain” (I hope).

Do you still believe Irvine will drop to 90s prices?

Or you can continue to obfuscate the obvious to throw people off the scent.

This is actually a good question.  In the context of today’s environment, my bet is that inflation is going to hit before house prices in Irvine decline nominally to 90’s prices.  However, I do believe that pricing in Irvine will ultimately reflect 90’s prices in “real” Dollars even though a 90’s rollback in nominal Dollars is not likely given the actions taken by the Government.

Keep digging for more quotes.  You found a pretty good one from 2 years ago but given the context of the environment at the time combined with the rather unorthodoxed Government intervention, I don’t think it is as crackpot as you insinuate.

I certainly have amended my claims since May 5 2009 as is evidenced by my 2011 quotes.

So are you finally admitting you made those claims… or is there some semantics/logic I’m not seeing here? Can you please show me a 2011 quote where you made such an amendment so that I’m not taking something out of context?

Do you believe that your current prices would have not gone back to 90’s levels if the Government had not intervened?

Yes… they would have not. I would hope closer to 03 but definitely not the 90s. Unlike you, I’ve lived in Irvine for quite a bit of time and have seen where prices have gone in the last TWO bubbles. The one prior to this, Irvine housing did not get back to pricing pre-bubble so there aren’t many reasons why it should have done it this last time. This is why I always ask you about it because I cannot see 4br SFRs that currently trade at over $600k+ now go back down to the $300k they were selling for in the 90s. If your dream home in AZ is going to go for $250k (which I assume to be a 3br SFR), that’s very unlikely to happen in Irvine.

And I still stand by my quote that there is no reason that Irvine prices could not return to 90’s prices.  We have seen it in other parts of the country.  If interest rates jump high enough, prices could easily go back to 90’s.  However, if the Government can keep the low interest rate trick going long enough and create a lot of inflation then prices may not fall back to 90’s in your market.

this fight is like edhne vs indiedev. so funny.

So are you finally admitting you made those claims

Finally admitting?  You are saying as though I remember every post that I made going back to 2009.  If you had to dig that far back to find a single quote that was made before the Government rode in on their white knight, that’s a pretty big stretch.

It did look like a guarantee in 2009 and I stand by the quote given the context of what was going on at the time.  Had the Government allowed the banks and Fannie Mae to fail and had they not engineered the massive life support for the housing market - Yes, I believe your house prices would be in the 90’s today.

But that is just one quote from 2009.  Surely you have many more from 2010 and 2011.

Look at what the Government did to stop the free-fall, Irvine HO
—

So why late 1999’s pricing for las vegas, miami etc, but not irvine?

Does Bernanke own around here? It must be the fact he he fears all those PIMCO employees who live around here so they saved Irvine and newport specifically with only 20% falls while letting others fall 60%.

So why late 1999’s pricing for las vegas, miami etc, but not irvine?

Higher frequency of speculation purchases, shoddier lending standards, higher rates of foreclosure, less squatting, economies that rely more on tourism etc are going to fall first.  I don’t think that is a big secret although your Bernanke theory is much more entertaining even though you were just being stupid.

Dave,

Why do you debase yourself with the he-said-she-said game with these jokers? Please don’t feed the trolls.

Sure, it’s fun to toss a sarcastic comment their way from time to time, but why lower yourself by engaging them in a prolonged argument? That sort of attention is exactly what they want. It makes them feel like someone is taking their nonsense seriously.

-Darth

Somebody’s old.

“It did look like a guarantee in 2009 and I stand by the quote given the context of what was going on at the time.  Had the Government allowed the banks and Fannie Mae to fail and had they not engineered the massive life support for the housing market”

but the government (aka bush, paulson and co.) bailed out fannie and freddie in 2008… so you knew that the government had already bailed out the housing market… so your prediction was predicated on that fact.

Nice try - the Government did not flip a magic switch and everything changed over night.  Notice how the Irvine house prices did a freefall into 2009 before credit started loosening up again.

Yeah it was the right time to predict higher rates LOL.