Ireland’s housing bubble: like ours, only worse

Mar 17th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Moore Gage-Mullarkey
2011-03-17 04:13 AM

“I wonder if you can pick up any good cashflow properties there now that prices have crashed?”

If you’re patient and you do your homework, like Senator Dodd, the sky is the limit.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124545642440632999.html

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-03-17 07:56 AM

Thanks for posting that article. I didn’t see that one when it came out at the time. Those guys are all crooked, aren’t they?

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-03-17 12:24 PM

Good things happen to friends of Angelo…

Astute Observation by Chris
2011-03-17 11:37 PM

Did he get censured for that in the Senate? Oh well, perhaps just a slap in the wrist anyway.

And FCB thought THEIR countries are all run by crooks….<snark>

Astute Observation by lee in irvine
2011-03-17 08:47 AM

Irvine Inventory

821 = 3/17/11
545 = 3/18/10
786 = 3/18/09
919 = 3/16/08

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-03-17 09:29 AM

Homes like these sold for $300k in 1999.

Even with 9 Springbuck at $488k, that’s still 40% away.

Irvine has a long way to go to hit AZDave’s benchmark.

Course correction time:

Does anyone still think Irvine will hit $200/sf? I think even IR modified his to $275/sf.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-03-17 09:49 AM

Good point IHO,
I’m having trouble understanding the large decline predictions here.
The $275/sq.ft.prediction is based on what?
9 Spring Buck sold for $311/sq.ft and it’s over 30 years old.

Astute Observation by lee in irvine
2011-03-17 12:53 PM

26 Wayfarer sold for $669,000 on 8/26/2004 ~ Same model

24 Sweet Rain sold for $510,000 on 11/13/2003 ~ Same model

So keep telling yourself, “SEE, prices are up”.

The rest of us are watching the second stage of the decline.

Astute Observation by lee in irvine
2011-03-17 12:46 PM

“Does anyone still think Irvine will hit $200/sf? I think even IR modified his to $275/sf.”

Oh please ... Stop the bullshit!  You’re only telling part of the story!

The home home right down the street (1 Spring Buck) sold for $683,000 on June 19, 2008.  It only has 2 bedrooms, and it’s 370 sq feet smaller.

Then there’s 17 SILKLEAF, which is in the same tract, the same model, and it sold for $600,000 on May 29, 2008.

So the way I see it, homes like these in Irvine have lost about $120,000 - $150,000 in the last two and half years.  And this has happened with an unprecedented effort by the govt & Federal Reserve to prevent it.

I could easily see homes like the one mentioned above, fetching prices below 300K in the future.  The people that deny this, never thought we were in a bubble in the first place.

Astute Observation by so_scared
2011-03-17 01:51 PM

Lee, wtf are you talking about?

IHO’s claim is that people predicted $200/SF. He doesn’t see how people can predict that.

Then you quote two sales from 2008 to invalidate his claim and you say “stop the bullshit?”

He never said prices didn’t go down.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-03-17 02:20 PM

I am not saying there was no bubble. Nor am I saying that these have not dropped in price.

What I am saying is I find it hard to see all of Irvine drop to 1999 prices.

Even IrvineRenter is no longer saying that. Why are you not throwing profanity at him?

And the losses you pointed out… 20-25%. Where are the 40-50% ones that are going to be across the board in Irvine? IR says another 5% down for this year… so I guess at this rate, 2016 is when I can jump back in?

No need to be angry… just giving people a chance to clarify their stance since we’ve now seen that the gov can and will intercede.

Astute Observation by lowrydr310
2011-03-17 02:47 PM

Just give it a little more time. The only thing ‘different’ about Irvine is the desirability by people with significant amounts of cash to put down.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-03-17 03:53 PM

Irvine HO -

I have never predicted that Irvine prices will fall to 1999 prices.  What I have said is that I, personally, would not pay 1 penny over the 1998 comp.  I have the luxury of saying that as I do not live in Irvine nor do I care to live there so it is not my problem if it ever happens or not.  On a long enough time scale, inflation will catch up.  Could Irvine plateau for 20 years while that happens?  Sure, but I would not want to be making interest payments in the meantime just to catch inflation.

Prices in my neck of the woods are closer to 1998 than yours and I suspect they will get there before inflation catches us.  I understand that Irvine is among the flavor du jour with real estate gamers in Southern California and maybe they will keep you guys pumped up for longer than other areas.  What I am saying is that I as someone who is looking at buying will avoid areas like that - the gamers can have them.  I have no intention of paying a windfall to some baby boomer who benefited from the years of falling interest rates and now feels entitled to sponge off the younger generation.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-03-17 05:28 PM

@AzDave:

What do you call this… “moving the goalposts”?

From what I remember I specifically asked you if Irvine could get to 1999 non-inflated prices and you said yes. I’ll find it when I have the time.

But, since you are capitulating… what is your prediction for Irvine now?

BTW: I recall you saying if a price on a certain home drops to $250k, you’ll buy… is that going to be all cash?

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-03-18 09:27 AM

It’s not moving the goal posts at all.  I would not pay a dime over the ‘98 price and I stand by that.  That is not “capitulating”.  You are doing your usual strawman argument by setting up an argument that I supposedly made and claiming that I am not capitulating against something that I did not say.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-03-18 10:41 AM

You really need to read more carefully.

The “moving” part is in reference to your claim that prices in Irvine would go back to 1999. Now you are saying you never made such a claim. You have not denied it before this but now you are saying otherwise… that’s the capitulation.

Here you go:

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2010-06-16 02:31 PM

@AZDave:
[...]
You’ve said prices should get back to 1999 non-inflation adjusted numbers. In 1999, a brand new 4/3 home in Irvine went for a little more than $300k. Do you honestly think that a brand new 4/3 home in Irvine will go that low in 2010? 2013? 2020? Even if we adjust for inflation over 15 years, in 2014 you’re looking at $450k. That math doesn’t seem right either.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-16 02:57 PM
[...]
I see no reason why Irvine could not revert back to 1999 prices but it all depends on your local incomes.  Your median income is much higher now than in 1999 if we believe Wikipedia.  The unknown lies in how much of the wealth destruction is going to impact Irvine.  I personally believe that the median income is going to decline.  How much so I cannot say.

Here’s another:

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2009-11-09 08:53 AM
[...]
I see no reason why 1997 prices could not be reached by the time this is over.
[...]

Whoah… 1997?!?

No straw man here… it is you that is bailing the hay.

Maybe when I have free time, I’ll find the comment where I asked you about inflation adjusted or actual prices.

Astute Observation by nefron
2011-03-17 05:58 PM

Dave, do you have absolutely ANY evidence that baby boomers are the large majority of sellers, to make this claim that they are “sponging” off of the younger gen?  Sounds pretty irrational to me.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-03-18 09:30 AM

Yes, ask yourself how many people who are 25 years old today were buying houses in the 80’s and early 90’s.  Look at the sales prices and compare them to what they ask for in today’s market.  Look at the trend in interest rates from the early 90’s to today and ask yourself which generation is benefiting over the other.  Use your brain, go ahead, try it - it won’t hurt.

Astute Observation by theyenguy
2011-03-17 10:16 AM

You write: “Savings will provide the internal capital for Ireland to prosper again.”

I respond that I do not see Ireland propering ever again.

In my blog article … European Financials Fall Turning The Euro Lower … As Exhausting Quantitative Easing Turns The Nasdaq, Technology And World Shares Shares Lower … I relate European shares, VGK, fell 3.1% lower on falling European Financials, EUFN, -3.6%.

The falling European Financials turned the Euro, FXE, 1.8% lower. Germany, EWG, -3.6%, Italy, EWI, -4.3%, Spain, EWP, -4.1%, The United Kingdom, EWU, -3.2% and Sweden, EWD, -3.1%.

Competitive currency devaluation is now underway as the US Dollar,$USD, is rising and most all currencies except the Yen and the Franc are falling.

The failure of quantitative easing is specifically seen in the trading lower of the distressed Fidelity mutual fund FAGIX, which approximates the value of the US Federal Reserves’ assets taken in under TARP, and which together with Excess Reserves, serves as the basis of Neoliberalism’s seigniorage.

Today’s rising Dollar is evidence of quantitative easing failure and also the end of neoliberalism.

Junk bonds, JNK, manifested massively bearish engulfing today providing even more evidence of the failure of neoliberalism’s seigniorage.

Failed neoliberalism means there will not be economic growth.

Failed neoliberalism also means the world is passing into The Age of Deleveraging which will be characterised by inflation destruction, debt deflation, credit ill-liquidity, instability, economic contraction and austerity.

The European Leaders are effecting a bloodless political economic coup which draws out an important concept that the rule of the sovereigns replaced neoliberalism and democracy in February and March of 2011.

The rule of the sovereigns is now the governing political and economic regime and construct.

Neoliberalism was the political and economic regime that governed mankind from the time that the Free To Choose economic theory of Milton Friedman replaced the gold standard in the early 1970s, to the exhaustion of Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing 1 and 2 on February 22, 2011, which was reflected in the fall in value of the distressed securities, which underwrote quantitative easing, and which are approximated by the Fidelity Mutual Fund FAGIX.

It was on February 22, 2011 that the value of FAGIX, and world stocks, ACWI, both fell lower.

Under the rule of the sovereigns, leaders meet in task groups such as the Pact for Euro, that is the Pact for Competitiveness, to develop Framework Agreements.

Then leaders meet in summits to formally announce Framework Agreements, which set forth regional political and economic governance which replace treaty, constitutional and historic rule of law. The Leaders’ Agreements waive national sovereignty. One is no longer a resident of a sovereign nation state; rather one is a resident living in a region of global governance, as called fro the Club of Rome in 1974.

Government minsters and business leaders appoint stake holders who effect the mandate of the leaders which promotes global corporatism, that is combined state corporate rule. Policies are enacted which promote the security and prosperity of corporations, and enforce austerity for the people.

Neoliberalism and democracy are replaced by the rule of the sovereigns, where the word will and way of the leaders is law.

The European sovereign crisis will intensify, and out of Götterdämmerung, an investment flameout, a Sovereign, and a Seignior an Old English term for top dog banker who takes a cut, will emerge to establish a common EU Treasury with fiscal sovereignty, as well as a new seigniorage replacing the currently failing US Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing seigniorage; and the Bank of Japan’s failed Yen Carry Trade seigniorage.

These two will assure the security and prosperity for select corporations while providing austerity for all people. Global Corporatism and the Rule of the Sovereigns will replace Neoliberalism as the world’s economic and political regime.

Banks will become even more integrated with government; and leased property living like that presented in the 1973 movie Solyent Green will be the norm

Astute Observation by MovinToOC
2011-03-17 02:33 PM

Ummm, the YEN has been getting stronger since the disaster and the BoJ has been trying to prevent that.

3/17/11 78.89   JPY
3/16/11 79.59   JPY
3/15/11 80.72   JPY
3/14/11 81.63   JPY
3/11/11 81.84   JPY
3/10/11 82.98   JPY
3/ 9/11 82.74   JPY
3/ 8/11 82.67   JPY
3/ 7/11 82.24   JPY
3/ 4/11 82.32   JPY
3/ 3/11 82.45   JPY
3/ 2/11 81.87   JPY
3/ 1/11 81.86   JPY
2/28/11 81.78   JPY
2/25/11 81.68   JPY
2/24/11 81.89   JPY
2/23/11 82.51   JPY
2/22/11 82.77   JPY
2/21/11 83.14   JPY

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-03-17 01:55 PM

I guess I wanna hear from those who insisted that inflation can not occur without a concurrent rise in wages.

Astute Observation by so_scared
2011-03-17 02:35 PM

what do you want to hear? that services represent 40% of overall GDP?

Even for durable(10% of gdp) and non-durable goods(20%), wages represents about half the COGS?

That raw materials/inputs for food products (such as wheat for cereal) represents less than 5% of the final product cost?

That the majority of government spend (20% of GDP) is also the purchases of services?

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-03-18 05:02 AM

And yet, prices of food and energy are increasing while wages are not.

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