Login
Subscribe
Recent Comments
- Lee Campbell on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Kelja on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Sylvia Walker on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Casual Observer on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Astute As It Comes on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Darin on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- Casual Observer on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- irvine_home_owner on Tustin, but Irvine Schools
Recent Posts
- Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Closed Sales from 5/10/2012-5/16/2012
- Open House Review: 52 Secret Garden
- Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Paired Living with Privacy in Woodbridge
- Beige Ruth Sisters
- Closed Sales from 5/3/2012 to 5/9/2012
- Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Investors Are Busy in Irvine’s Low-End Housing Market
- Artist in Residence: Turtle Rock Glen Townhome
Categories
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- Rest of archives
Browse Homes
Irvine Homes
- Airport Area Homes
- El Camino Real Homes
- Northpark Homes
- Northwood Homes
- Oak Creek Homes
- Orangetree Homes
- Portola Springs Homes
- Quaill Hill Homes
- Rancho San Joaquin Homes
- Turtle Ridge Homes
- Turtle Rock Homes
- University Park
- University Town Center Homes
- West Irvine Homes
- Westpark Homes
- Woodbridge Homes
- Woodbury Homes
Newport Beach Homes
- Newport Coast Homes
- Crystal Cove Homes
- Corona Del Mar / Spyglass
- East Bluff / Harbor View Homes
- Lower Newport Bay / Balboa Island
- Balboa Peninsula Homes
- West Bay / Santa Ana Heights
- West Newport / Lido Homes
Other Cities
- Aliso Viejo Homes
- Anaheim Hills Homes
- Brea Homes
- Costa Mesa Homes
- Coto de Caza Homes
- Dana Point Homes
- Huntington Beach Homes
- Ladera Ranch Homes
- Laguna Beach Homes
- Laguna Hills Homes
- Laguna Niguel Homes
- Lake Forest Homes
- Mission Viejo Homes
- Orange Homes
- Rancho Santa Margarita Homes
- San Clemente Homes
- San Juan Capistrano Homes
- Santa Ana Homes
- Tustin Homes
- Villa Park Homes
- Yorba Linda Homes
Contact
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Foreclosures
Housing
- Talk Irvine
- IHB Forum Archive
- OC Housing News
- Coto Housing Blog
- Housing Kaboom
- Patrick.net
- Housing Chronicles
- Housing Doom
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Manhattan Beach Confidential
- Burbed
- SoCal RE Bubble Crash
- Professor Piggington
- Real C'ville
- Westside Bubble
- Bubble Meter
- Portland Housing Blog
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- OC Register Blog
Econ/Finance/Other
- Calculated Risk
- The Big Picture
- Economist's View
- Mish's Blog
- Matrix
- Bakers' Stock
- ML-Implode
- Eschaton
- Best Mortgage Rates
- Crackerjack Finance
Latest REOs
- $199,900 :: 3125 Watermarke Pl, Irvine CA, 92612
- $349,900 :: 10 Greenleaf 16, Irvine CA, 92604
- $439,900 :: 61 Olivehurst, Irvine CA, 92602
- $889,900 :: 14 Upland, Irvine CA, 92602
- $429,900 :: 56 Great Lawn, Irvine CA, 92620
- $465,000 :: 212 Garden Gate Ln, Irvine CA, 92620
- $329,000 :: 1006 Terra Bella, Irvine CA, 92602
- $579,900 :: 8 Star Thistle, Irvine CA, 92604
- $458,500 :: 3 Ultimo Dr, Irvine CA, 92620
- $398,900 :: 191 Lockford, Irvine CA, 92602
I’m sorry, but WTF???
Maybe it’s the angle of the photo, but that house looks incredibly ugly. It looks like two completely different styles stuck together. Are those two houses, with just a really weird photo angle, because each style actually might work on its own. But together, FAIL!
Also, again, maybe it’s a weird photo angle, but the part in the foreground looks like it’s leaning to the right. Was it designed this way? Basically, the whole thing looks designed by a very conservative architect who had a bad acid trip. Or rather two architects.
They want a million dollars for THIS??? Good luck with that.
Henry
What is the deal with the half stone half tinder box look? This is an actual design?
Oh, that is easy to explain. Since this is a two bedroom dwelling, then one bedroom resides in the stone part while the the other bedroom resides in the tinder box part of the “house”.
I think they are actually two different houses built right next to each other. The builders realized that they could shoehorn another Irvine tract house onto the lot if they did away with the traditional 5 feet between neighboring houses.
How about that warm stone look straight of The Shawshank Redemption?
They ran out of stone that day. They also ran out of windows for the kitchen.
“She expects private mortgage lenders to step in and fill that space when the government backs down.”
Yes, one private lender already has re-entered the true Jumbo Market (Astoria):
740 FICO, no cash-out, no investment/2nd homes, no condos. 30% down. Limited DTI. AND 20% reserves (after down). NOT 6 months PITI, 20%.
So to buy a million dollar home, one needs $300,000 down AND $200,000. That is a very narrow target of borrowers…
Congratulations on being one of many blowing this way out of proportion. I’ve only seen calculated risk accurately analyze this.
In Irvine the vast majority of houses are purchased with a loan 417 or less and a large down payment. Even most of the more expensive homes are purchased with less than 417k when a third have no loan at all. Even excluding all of those purchaes which probably represent greater than 90% of Irvine transactions…the minuscule higher rate is cushioned by the tax deduction… In this tax bracket that reduces a 0.5% rate increase to more like a 0.35% rate… And even then most have the capability to pony up more cash to the deal if it makes sense.
Since this has such a minimal impact, why don’t we go back to the pre-2008 level of $417,000? You don’t want your tax dollars going to waste on a subsidy that doesn’t impact the housing market, do you? After all, there is an endless supply of heavy cash buyers eagerly snapping up every Irvine home. Have you seen the stellar sales rates?
I’m fine with it going back to $417k.
This was mostly done to have you the tax payer pay for the bubble debt in government backed modifications. Now that poison pill was transferred to the tax payer there is no use for it.
The time to blow this out of proportion was 4 years ago, when the tax payer was bent over a barrel.
This will have almost no impact on the current Irvine market.
I’m not sure that it will have almost no impact, but I too don’t see a significant impact due to this change. Houses where this change might have impact on buyer decisions represent only about 10% of total houses on the market in Irvine. So if we extrapolate that about 65% of these represent 20% or less down buyers (and therefore would be impacted by the lower cap), we’re looking at about 6% of homes impacted. And then how many will actually curtail their decision because rate is .5% higher?
I can see some trickle down/up effect on other price points because of this, but again I think we’re looking at a fairly insignificant impact. It makes sense that the price may be driven down slightly due to this, barring any other factors. But I think other factors in economy will have much greater impact on Irvine home prices than this change.
I… must… stop… agreeing with PR…
Haven’t chimed in a while but I’m third with this notion… Absolutly go back to $417k conforming loans… The Goverment should absolutly not be in the business of backstopping high dollar homes for the upper middle class.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_housing_battle#mwpphu-container
agreed loans will be much more difficult to get because the risk is greater for the banks/mortgage firms.
Especially if Freedie and Fannie go away.
The federal reserve has a site on credit conditions:
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditionsmap/
You can go to jumbo loans in the mortgage section and it will tell #loans/1000 housing units. For the OC it is 87, or 8.7%. Rough measure.
The other option banks have is a first at $417k, and a second to get to 10-20% down. Sell the first to the GSE’s and hold the 2nd.
Don’t be surprised when the banks start doing this again in volume.
It will start with only stellar credit scores and high asset levels.
You should now how the story goes from there.
It will be more likely that the second will be repackaged then sold to the GSE. When the default comes, the GSE/taxpayer can take the total hit.
History proves that people never learn from history.
One thing has puzzle me: Being called a “Turtle” is a very big insult for ABC’s and OBC’s.
If that is the case then it would be bad. I thought it OK if the originator held a chunk in first loss position. Do you have any evidence that (repackaging the 2nd’s) is what is happening?
That’s the game plan for later.
Currently most are GSE backed loans on the first with low down. If the borrower has high down, the bank will use their own money on the first.
The repackaging of bad seconds will occur once the economy picks up and memory fades with time and new financial inovations (i.e., new Ponzi or loan modifications).
i suspect it will have a very noticeable impact.
everyone is analyzing it from a financial perspective.
no one is looking at it from a psychological point of view.
the $8k home buyer’s tax credit very significantly affected the more expensive homes (case shiller shows prices went up for all tiers). not because people buying the expensive homes were saving a huge amount but because in the frenzy of the $8k credit, everyone caught the fever and created an environment that made it seem like it was a great time to buy whether it was a $100k house or a $1M house.
similarly, i believe it’s possible that the lowering of the mortgage limit will make it harder for people to buy dampening an already depressed market. as the sales numbers drop more than usual, more people will become cautious, fewer people will want to buy.
Well put, *. I completely agree. The 8K credit is the reason that we SOLD our house. And there is no way I’m buying an $800+ house in Irvine after the loan limit announcement. Those things will go down $100K or so in the next year based on that impact alone. (Other government interventions nonwithstanding).
By Oct 1, in Irvine we will likely see $5 gas, higher food prices and no real income growth.
Somehow I just don’t see a stampede into the private mortgage market, irregardless of terms offered.
another factor…
private bank lending is back with a vengeance. Virtual no covenant business loans (literally no exam required, no reviewed statements, no monthly reporting required for multiple $M lines of credit) and leveraged buyout loans for PE firms all the rage again.
the competition for risk is back. They hopefully won’t as crazy but don’t fool yourself into thinking bank lending is at 2009 criteria for any kind of lending.
So scared, exactly.
Just like the first move up was done for the banks to create a market to unload bad loans on tax payers, this move down is for the banks to create a profitable market for banks.
so_scared, go apply for your million dollar credit line. Tell them you are starting up a new Hog Washing business. Let us know how it turns out.
Dave,
not hog washing exactly but that is exactly how it turned out…multiple banks competing..result was covenant light and more line than originally requested by $Ms.
Don’t tell me, you are going to post that you don’t believe it. or this case is somehow special. I guess.
It is what is. As for LBO, you can read for yourself on how buyout deals are getting financed. Of course, you don’t believe those either.
I’m serious. Washing Hogs for Dollar-Dollar Bills is a viable business. Get out there and make those banks compete to give you millions. Hurry while the idea is still original!
This type of free money for all is limited mostly to public companies. If you are a small private company, I doubt you will find the money so freely flowing.
I am working with small private companies to get commercial RE loans and it is no easy matter. Possible, but not easy.
I work with many SMBs and their credit lines are opening up. Not at same levels of 2005 but definitely easier to do business. These companies are in the tech industry.
Yeah baby ...
cnn.com: Home prices in ‘double dip’
Prices will likely fall for awhile. Conditions will start to improve once the economic recovery gains traction and job growth improves
Here we go again - some wonk equating increasing house prices as an “improvement” who completely misses the point that house prices shall continue to fall until prices are inline with salaries. “Job Growth” means nothing if the only jobs for growth are in burger flipping. I think it is safe to say that 100K Mortgage Pimping jobs are not going to be nearly as abundant going forward.
As a renter, I see conditions improving daily as house prices continue to fall and look forward to future improvements as affordability returns.
The house in the picture seems highly impractical…to pay that kind of money for a TWO BEDROOM house seems outrageous.
It has “Turtle” in the name of the community. That’s at least a 20% premium bump in Irvine.
Will obviously does not have children and if he did, they would most likely be attending 9/10 Star Schools - preparing for their hard lives ahead all because dad would not pay whatever was required for a piece of Irvine California.
AZDave - I understand how ridiculous it is for people to say they leveraged themselves up for their children’s education but the current buyers in Irvine aren’t highly leveraged. They are bringing 40%+ down. Also, the premium between 9/10 school cities near Irvine and Irvine with its 10/10 schools is about 10-20%...its much greater premium when compared to neighborhoods with lower scored schools.
While I personally might choose to save $100K and pick a 9/10 area, I wont choose to save $400K and pick a 6 or 7 area. Am I wasting my money? Maybe but it is truly my money - I don’t need a loan to buy the house.
You comment a ton on this children part - what would you pay if any more for better schools?
Renters have access to the same schools.
An off topic question for astute observers:
Last year Gov Schwarzenneger vetoed sb1178 which would have extended non-recourse protection to refinanced mortgages which many people obtained for the lower interest rates. It’ been stated that the essence of this bill has been re-introduced this year as sb458. My reading of 458 is that it applies only to short sales and requires the written approval of the bank or note holder; I find nothing addressing refi deficiency protection.
Anyone have any info on this?
Those two Shade Tree properties sure show how Agents really have no idea how to price a tract home these days. 52 Shade Tree is a comp killer no matter if it was distressed or an equity sale.
As another side note, at a recent area Realtor preview meeting an Agent got up to pitch his new listing. Practically verbatim: “Come and see my new listing. Please hurry as it’s just now on the market and the seller want’s it sold, so much so that they may have a price reduction in place next week”. Hurry????
Anyhoo. If you want a preview of what the $625k conforming jumbo market will do to sales prices, look no further than Riverside/San Bernardino. The Max Conforming an FHA loan amount out there is $500k. If in Chino, drive 6 miles to Walnut and the max is $729,750. Most higher end home prices in the IE have stabilized in a price range close to what borrowers can finance with 20% down - $625,000. Anything higher than that and you’ve got to put much more cash down. Financing in areas like Indian Wells or Palm Springs is another animal with either cash sales or private jumbo financing with a 1/2 percent higher rate than standard conforming. Outside of this desert community, you cannot use these jumbo loans without a much higher down payment - 25 to 30% - simply due to zip code restrictions.
The OC market may run down that same pathway. Specialized jumbo financing for NPB/QH/TR etc with $625k only for areas outside of those zip codes.
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People.
Can anybody confirm the square footage of 52 Shade Tree? That is, the listing says it’s exactly 2,000 square feet and also says “Square Footage Source: Estimated”, both big red flags that state “Square footage number pulled out of my butt”. In reality, it could be 1,704 square feet or something, which would affect the comps significantly.
If it is a Canyon’s Edge Plan B, the floorplan says 2000sft.
The listing doesn’t say what model it is but the pictures match up with the floorplan too.
Well, if there is a floorplan that matches, then the number is probably accurate. It’s just when you build a house, it’s rare for the square footage to come out to a round number, IMHO.
I kinda like that if you want a super expensive house, you would need to put 25 to 30 down. It’s a luxury that people should pay out of pocket to obtain.
Las Vegas High End Approaching Capitulation. Rest of market partying like it’s 1999.
If you are a Vegas renter, your moment is at hand.
Yes, if you are still employed, it’s time to move to some place with a better future.
Hey PR -
Have you been to Mandalay Bay recently? It’s like freakin Christmas (Even on Wednesdays!) over there! So much for the “crash”.
Hopefully Wednesday nights are so good they will need to hire even more high school drop out hourly workers.
Yes! They could be just like that New Century Financial in Irvine then!
Or the typical crop of RE agents in Planet Realty!
Hey, I worked at New Century! I was in IT, I pushed the button that shut down retail lending. It was a fun crazy place to work. Too bad it was even more of a basket case then I imagined.
Ah, that’s more like it! I knew it couldn’t last!
You’ll have to explain why you think it would be a good idea for someone who IS gainfully employed in now-dirt cheap Vegas would be motivated to get out to somewhere with a “better future”, like… Detroit?
Steady income, houses at bargain, rental surplus to keep prices down… I don’t get it. Though I have to admit the restaurant prices are now astronomical! What happened to $3.99 Circus Circus buffet? Okay, now I’m dating myself…
That classic Medieval-Mediterranean-Cathedral-cum-Fortress style….beeeeaaauuuutiful!