Courtside in Northwood

Address: 50 Fillmore, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)

Plan: 1538 sq ft – 3/2

MLS: S481925 DOM: 11

Sale History: 8/19/2005: $680,000

8/20/1993: $260,000

Current Price: $719,000

This Plan 1 home in the Courtside tract in the village of Northwood was purchased by investors in August 2005 for $680,000 with what looks to be about 50% down. Perhaps it was a 1031 exchange?

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Anyways, it’s currently occupied by tenants and the description says ‘Taking Backup…. and Sold as is‘. The private remarks state ‘Some TLC needed‘. Just a few days on the market and they’ve already got an offer? That’s surprising.. Assuming 6% in selling costs, the investors will lose about $3k if they get their asking price. No big deal..

I only found a couple sales for this floorplan:

  • 7 Buchanan sold for $670,000 on 1/26/2006

  • 2 Shelby sold for $690,000 on 9/26/2006

2 Shelby closed not that long ago after sitting on the market for 123 days. After taking a look at the old listing for 2 Shelby I noticed that it had a few things done to make it easier to sell (new roll up garage door, new exterior paint, etc.). If the decent condition house at 2 Shelby took 123 days to sell at a price of $690,000, when and at what price do you think the In Need of TLC house at 50 Fillmore will sell?

OC Real Estate Forum on 4/12/2007

Just a quick blurb. I’ve posted about this group before. They have their April meeting tomorrow at 7pm at the Double Tree Hotel at 90 Pacifica in Irvine.

One of the presentations is about how to access real estate records for Free. Here is the description of the presentation: “Accessing all real estate property records, including owner names, address, title history, previous purchase prices, current loan amounts and comparative market analysis–FREE. Doug Thompson of Lawyers Title Company, Irvine, will demonstrate how to access the system and use the information. The OCRE Forum in collaboration with Lawyers Title will be providing a FREE Costumer Service Account to all OCREs registered members.“

Many of our readers have asked how to get this kind of information. If I go to this meeting, I’ll report back on what I find out. If you end up going, please let us know how it went.

The Inside Scoop – 1

As I mentioned in my first post I am IrvineRenter (Inventory Cholesterol), I sometimes have access to information not widely known to the general public. Today I came across something I thought would be of interest to the board. In a conversation with a City Councilman from a city in Riverside County, I was told the following:

  • New home permits (and associated fees) are down by 64% this year.

  • Sales tax revenues are down 6% – 8% this year.

  • As a result, the City is going to slash its budget by 10% which will likely result in layoffs.

It’s different in Riverside County, you know. What is going on there?

IMO, the drop in new home permits is just a sign of the deepening crisis in the housing market. Where is the spring rally? What about all the foot traffic we have been hearing about? If the builders were anticipating renewed strength in the housing market, wouldn’t they be starting on new homes?

IMO, the 6%-8% decline in sales tax revenue is even more alarming. If unemployment is low and everyone is working, why would consumer spending fall off so dramatically? Were the builders and sub-contractors activities accounting for that much of they local economy? What role does the decline in mortgage equity withdrawal have in this decline? Is everyone tapped out? Many of the housing bears have stated the economy is too dependent on real estate and continued Ponzi Scheme borrowing and it is due for a crash. Are they right? A 10% drop in economic activity sounds like a pretty hard landing to me.

On a related but lighter note, my bearish outlook is starting to take a toll on my spiritual life. Last night I had a dream in which I prepared my family for disaster. I outfitted everyone with lead jackets, and we hunkered down behind a thick wall of reinforced concrete. Not long thereafter a nuclear bomb detonated in our proximity. We witnessed the destruction from ground zero. We were the only survivors.

Anybody want to analyze that one? Pardon me while I refit my tin-foil hat…

Where are the Sheeple?

Shepard Living

Asking Price: $1,829,000

Purchase Price: $1,429,000

Purchase Date: 3/10/2006

Address: 34 Shepard, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5 IrvineRenter

Baths: 5.5

Sq. Ft.*: 3,800

Lot Sq. Ft.*: 6,000

Year Built: 2005

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Woodbury

$/Sq. Ft.*: $481

MLS: S472326

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 83 days

Redfin, Zillow

Here we have a shepard who needs a sheep to fleece. It seems many of the sheeple didn’t get the memo about continual double digit price appreciation in Irvine. They haven’t shown up for 83 days to buy our shepard’s home for $400,000 more than he paid for it one year earlier. If this isn’t an example of Southern California’s Cultural Pathology I don’t know what is? The mentality that believes you should make $400,000 a year for simply owning your home. Unbelievable!

SheepleFrom Redfin “Most popular elevation in this JB plan 1. Long Driveway, porte cochere leads to rear/attached 2 car garage. Hardwood flrs down, carpet/tile, many upgrades: intercom, surround sound, security syst. , ceiling fans custom window coverings, central vaccum, sound attenuation insulation. Superb home. Completely landscaped, BBQ, lampposts in rear, attention to detail and quality. Walking distance to parks, Woodbury’s Commons, Shopping center, new elementary school.”

Personally, I would not like the porte cochere driveway. Every day I would be worried that either me or my wife was going to smash into the house while backing out. Although, it does make for a nicer front elevation when the house isn’t rear loaded (most of Woodbury is).

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It would appear the price will need to fall before it will generate any buyer interest. Another 5 bedroom in the neighborhood at 11 Ingleside is asking $427 SF or $1,325,000. A nearby 3 bedroom at 105 Mission is asking $370 SF or $724,800, and it has been on the market for 85 days, so it is probably priced too high as well. If our flipper reduces the price to $370 SF, we are back to his purchase price. Will he do it? I guess it depends on whether or not he really wants to sell it.

Short-Sale in Northwood

ticonderoga kitchen

Asking Price: $925,000

Purchase Price: $940,000

Purchase Date: 11/07/2005

Address: 4 Ticonderoga, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5 IrvineRenter

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.*: 3,029

Lot Sq. Ft.*: 5,300

Year Built: 1980

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Northwood

$/Sq. Ft.*: $305

MLS: P561270

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 52 days

We have written a great deal about the coming foreclosure tsunami which will drive prices lower. This is just the beginning. This house is going to sell for less than its 2005 purchase price because the owner has to sell. Must-sell inventory lowers the comps in the entire neighborhood. Right now, these sales are more the exception than the rule, but the stress of mortgage resets has not hit the market yet, so more of these sales are coming.

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From Redfin: “SHORT SALE, PRE-FORECLOSURE, UNDERMARKET OPPORTUNITY. A bright home in desirable Northwood Village of Irvine. Walking distance to elementary & middle schools and community park. One bedroom and bath in main floor. Low maintenance backyard with fruit trees. Large 5th room may be used as library, gameroom or office. No association and No Mello Roos fees. House is sold AS-IS w/ no Warranties of any kind implied or not.”

Assuming a 6% commission, and assuming this wasn’t a negative amortization loan, this lender will lose $70,500 on this FB. What is worse is the impact on the neighborhood. If Zillow is any indication, this sale will reduce the property values in the entire neighborhood about 10%. So it begins…