Open Thread 9-12-2009

I am tinkering with the post data. Help me out if you can.

118 Winslow Ln   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $499,000
Address: 118 Winslow Ln Irvine, CA 92620

(you should know better)
Dream of better lives the kind which never hate
(you should see why)
Dropped in the state of imaginary grace
(you should know better)
I made a pilgrimage to save this humans race
(you should see why)
What Im comprehending a race that long gone bye

(Ill stop the world) Ill stop the world and melt with you
(Ill stop the world) youve seen the difference and its getting better all the time
(lets stop the world) theres nothing you and I wont do
(lets stop the world) Ill stop the world and melt with you

The futures open wide

Melt With You — Modern English

Does anyone remember the movie “Valley Girl?”

English music was much more popular in the 80s.

Post Layout

I am experimenting with the post layout and information. I am only working with 3 inputs: asking price, previous sale price and
the date of previous sale, so there is a limit to what I can do.

I developed a template I use to compile the property data and display it consistently with the least amount of work. For over two years, I did every calculation by hand — that was stupid. Hopefully, there will be fewer post errors.

I am introducing a few new lines to the typical post analysis. Since the point of these posts is not always to display a shocking loss — it is hard to shock anyone who has been reading a while — I am showing the profit or loss from the transaction as part of the data. I may mention it again if it is integral to the story of the day, but the information will be there if anyone is interested.

I am also showing the percentage change during the period of ownership and the annualized rate of appreciation or depreciation as the case may be. This is calculated by (1) taking the annualized appreciation, (2) dividing by the total number of days of ownership and (3) dividing by 365.25 to convert to years.

I have been having an internal debate if it is better to calculate this based on the raw numbers or if the transaction costs should be included. The total gain or loss is net of commissions. The percentage change and the annualized appreciation is gross. This does overstate the actual return net of commissions and fees, but it is accurate to the numbers presented.

I am also thinking about tinkering with the income data. I can create a formula that changes the income requirement based on current interest rates and other assumptions. This may be more useful, and it will certainly be more accurate.

For instance, for this post, I have used an income requirement that assumes 28% of income will be going to a conventional mortgage payment at 5.25% interest rates. As interest rates go up or down, the income requirement will change accordingly. This should be a close approximation to traditional lending standards applied to current interest rates.

Let me know what you think.

118 Winslow Ln   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $499,000

Income Requirement: $94,474
Downpayment Needed: $99,800

Purchase Price: $204,000
Purchase Date: 7/24/1998

Gain (Loss) after 6% Commission: $265,060
Percent Change: 144.6%
Annualized Appreciation: 13.0%

Address: 118 Winslow Ln Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,340
$/Sq. Ft.: $372
Lot Size: 1,769 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Cape Cod
Stories: 2
View: Courtyard
Year Built: 1998
Community: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: U9003959
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day
Georgeous 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath home in prestious Northwood Pointe tract. Quiet cul-de-sac location. Dramatic high vaulted ceilings. French and dutch doors. Fire place and formal dining room. Large chefs kitchen. Custom paint and window coverings throughout. Surround sound and security system. Large master suite with large bath and walk in closet. Private brick patio. Completely finished garage with storage and work bench. Lowest priced 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath detached in Northwood.

I like the houses in this neighborhood, but the prices there are simply ridiculous.

Good Karma

Have you every done something good for no reason and watched the good flow back to you?

Today’s featured property is a Portola Springs homes struggling to find a bottom.

68 Bell Chime   Irvine, CA 92618  inside

Asking Price: $698,500
Address: 68 Bell Chime Irvine, CA 92618

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,
and I say it’s all right

Little darling, it’s been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it’s been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun
and I say it’s all right

Here Comes the Sun — The Beatles

In life there are periods of growth and expansion followed by periods of rest and consolidation.

sunshine

Spiritually, I am in a phase of reflection as has spilled over into my writing for the blog. My style is to be open and creative and filter as little as possible; it is why my writing is authentic. Like any phase, this will pass, and I will live on — hopefully at a higher level with a greater quality of life. Until then, you will see the occasional Friday post like this one.

I had a friend from High School email me recently and tell me he was beginning chemotherapy. I think about him often, as does the rest of our circle of friends. News like that makes you ask if you are (1) spending enough time with your family, (2) doing enough good in the community and (3) living your life by your own standards.

There are many reasons for my reflective moods, not the least of which is the story I am going to tell you today.

Clarity of Purpose

When I started writing for the IHB, I wanted to get the word out about the impending collapse of home prices. I wanted to save people. I still do.

I had no other motivation for writing other than to convince people not to buy; prices were not going to rise forever, and if that is why they were buying, they were making a big mistake. Each person I convinced not to buy was a person I saved from a major financial disaster. With the conviction of a religious zealot, I set out to tell the Truth about The Great Housing Bubble.

{book}

Back in March, a long-time reader came to the IHB gathering and told me his IHB story. In early 2007, this reader was contemplating buying an expensive home in Portola Springs. A colleague of his had discovered the blog and told him to check it out before making any purchase. After reading the blog, he decided not to buy right at the peak in Portola Springs.

This reader is convinced he would be hundreds of thousands of dollars underwater right now if it were not for my writing, and he is very grateful. As it turns out, he has connections with people in the land development industry, and when he became aware of a large project, he made some introductions and got me involved. When the initial planning of this project goes forward the recession will be over for me. The sun is poking through the darkness.

This reader did not have to bring me in to that project. He saw an opportunity to send some good back to me, and he made it happen, not because he owed my anything, but because he wanted to. How cool is that?

It doesn’t matter if I benefit in any way from this, it was the gesture that was so great. This is my public thank you to my anonymous friend.

Thank You

While I am thanking anonymous do-gooders, I thought I might mention a gentleman I worked with about 6 years ago when I first arrived in Irvine. He is a local developer with deals over the Southwest. When we first met, he liked me, so he offered me a chance to work with him. As it turned out, he needed someone with greater expertise in land acquisition.

Rather than sending me packing, he told me it is easier to find work when you have work, so I had 60 days to search — on his dime — and he would make some calls to help me. How cool is that?

He was going to gain nothing from doing this for me, and I was going to cost him a fair amount of money. What motivates a man like that?

I found new work quickly, and I did not need to take him up on the full term of his generous offer. I always remembered what he did.

Last year I had occasion to visit his office, and at the conclusion of our meeting, I closed the door, retold the story and thanked him for his generosity. I also told him I feel he is an outstanding human being. He is.

Maybe I make too much of this. Perhaps this is not new to you. If you have been living a life of service to others and you have seen goodness come back to you, these events would be an everyday occurrence. I have not been so saintly.

I have never been in a position to do so much good for so many people — at least that I was aware of — and I have never acted on the opportunity before the IHB. The experience has changed my life for the better.

The Connection

One of the features of my writing has always been the connection between the macro and the micro. I often tie big issues and statistics to individual properties. The owner of today’s Portola Springs property did not discover the IHB in 2007, and now they are ruined. They did not lose much money as this was a 100% financing deal, but their credit is trashed, and they are losing their home.

These issues are important, and the decisions people make have long-term impact on their lives.

68 Bell Chime   Irvine, CA 92618  inside

Asking Price: $698,500

Income Requirement: $174,625
Downpayment Needed: $139,700

Purchase Price: $790,500
Purchase Date: 3/28/2007

Address: 68 Bell Chime Irvine, CA 92618

Beds: 4
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 2,260
$/Sq. Ft.: $309
Lot Size: 3,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary/Modern
Stories: 3+
Floor: 2
Year Built: 2007
Community: Portola Springs
County: Orange
MLS#: S588030
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day

Gorgeous Remodeled Detached End Unit in Portola Springs! Beautiful Open kitchen with Huge Island complete with Granite Counters, Travertine Floors & Back Splash. Both Bathrooms up have Travertine floors including Master bath. Third Floor loft has Brazilian Cherry wood floors with Slate flooring in bathroom. Great new community recreational facility, clubhouse with Olympic size pool, spa, toddler pool, basketball and tennis courts, Irvine Unified School District. Future retail center only blocks away. Pictured home is the exact property.

The future of Portola Springs is uncertain. The Irvine Company has stated it plans to build out Woodbury East before it returns to Portola Springs and Woodbury. When they start building again in the new neighborhoods, it will be interesting to see what price points they are getting. If they can maintain a $300/SF price, then these communities will not be severely disrupted by the new product. It will bring down prices on units like this one further, but it will be easier on the resale market than if they restart at $240/SF — which is where the market might be in 2011.

There is a risk when writing a post like this one that readers will think the worst of me. I can’t control the thoughts of others, nor would I care to try. I don’t wish to say or imply that anyone who reads the blog owes me anything; expectation and obligation are paths to the Dark Side. I have no expectation, and you have no obligation. I wanted to share this story because it is represents a major event in my life, and I thought the reason it occurred was fascinating.

I write for the joy of giving and the belief I am doing good in the world, and I will continue as long as that is true.

If you want to share your stories of goodness, I would be delighted to read them….

.

And so concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog, chronicling the Irvine home market since September of 2006.

Have a great weekend.

🙂

Corporate Relocation Sales

What would you do if you were underwater and you were offered a great new job out-of-state?

66 Eclipse   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,499,000
Address: 66 Eclipse Irvine, CA 92620

I think it’s high time you knew
Whenever I think of you
My mind blows a fuse
When I look in your eyes
My meter starts to rise
And I become confused
My motor cranked electric goes
When I’m sitting next to you
Electricity starts to flow
And my indicator starts to glow

I, I, I’m just a love machine and I won’t work for nobody but you

Love Machine — The Miracles

To be quite frank, if you pass this up, you will be missing not only
the boat, the limo and party, BUT LIFE ITSELF!!! Buy it and let the
love begin!

I give the realtor credit for having the courage to put that in the description. He just landed some free exposure for his listing…

Corporate Relocation Sales

MalibuRenter emailed me recently and posed the following question:

Imagine you have a house in Irvine. You are offered a good job out of state, making considerably more than you do now. You want to accept the job, but you have a $900,000 mortgage on a home with a market value of $700,000 at most, and you are current on the payments. As far as you can tell, your current job is secure.

What would you do?

The answers have started a lively thread in our forums.

Calculated Risk noted the Housing Bust Impacting Labor Mobility.

According to the Census Bureau,
from 2005 to 2006 (the most recent data), approximately 1.7 million
owner-occupied households, moved to a different county or state. If
approximately 1 in 8 households (the same proportion as with negative
equity) will not accept a transfer now because of depressed home values
that would be about 200,000 households per year that will be reluctant
to accept job transfers.

This will not only impact the earning
potential of these households, but this could also impact the
performance of various companies. A significant majority of households
that migrate have incomes above the median – and negative equity
situations will limit the ability of companies to transfer these senior
employees.

One of the strengths of the U.S. labor market has been the flexibility
associated with labor mobility – households could easily move from one
region to another for better employment. The housing bust is now
limiting this flexibility.

That is the macro view, but what of the micro? What would you do in the circumstances above?

Today’s featured property owners are doing what many before them have tried; ask for a breakeven exit and see what happens….

66 Eclipse   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: 1,499,000

Income Requirement: $374,750
Downpayment Needed: $299,800

Purchase Price: $1,438,000
Purchase Date: 5/30/2006

Address: 66 Eclipse Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 6
Baths: 6
Sq. Ft.: 3,700
$/Sq. Ft.: $405
Lot Size: 8,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Stories: 2
View: City Lights, Coastline, Greenbelt, Panoramic, Park or Green Belt, Trees/Woods, Has View
Year Built: 2005
Community: Woodbury
County: Orange
MLS#: S588282
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 day

Corporate relocation foreces sale – this is your good fortune – ONLY LOCATION OF ITS KIND on the Irvine Ranch.The most SPECTACULAR LOCATION in Woodbury! End of cul de sac with sunset, Disneyland fireworks and city lights view on SINGLE LOADED street. The safest family location on the planet. Fantastic for family block parties with plenty of guest parking. Seperate casita with bathroom and own HVAC system. 6th bedroom is huge playroom. Each bedroom has its OWN bathroom. Upgrades galore with wood floors, imported granite counters, stainless steel appliances, extra recessed lighting, custom designer paint,custom stone hardscaping and facade. To be quite frank, if you pass this up, you will be missing not only the boat, the limo and party, BUT LIFE ITSELF!!! Buy it and let the love begin!

foreces? Seperate?

ONLY LOCATION OF ITS KIND?

Is isn’t even the only (1) southeast side property (2) on the boulevard (3) at the end of a cul-du-sac. What makes this property unique?

Coincidentally, this property is listed at 3% over its purchase price — the cost of a buyer’s agent in the transaction. Do you think they will get 3% more than their purchase price? (Hint: they bought at the peak.)

I Want That One

I am a fan of the single-story homes built in the 70s. When I am ready to buy, I will take a good look at properties like this one.

29 Morning Dove   Irvine, CA 92604  inside

Asking Price: $659,000

Address: 29 Morning Dove Irvine, CA 92604

{book4}

Adventure seeker on an empty street,

Just an alley creeper, light on his feet

A young fighter screaming, with no time for doubt

With the pain and anger can't see a way out,

It ain't much I'm asking, I heard him say,

Gotta find me a future move out of my way,

I want it all, I want it all,

I want it all, and I want it now,

I want it all, I want it all,

I want it all, and I want it now,

I Want It All — Queen

As I have stated before, I do not plan on buying in this market environment, but I see properties I would like to own all the time. Today's featured property has many of the characteristics I want in a home in Irvine.

I like Woodbridge, particularly the north side inside the loop near the lake. This property is outside the loop, but it is in one of the few areas outside the loop built out as single-family detached homes. The walk to a really nice park with a large pool is less than 100 yards (there is a path between two houses).

The house is on a corner lot, and although it is near enough to get road noise from the arterial streets, it does not back onto them (Woodbridge has more road noise from the arterials than other Villages because there is no wall. The hedge is useless.) I give it a "B" for location within Irvine.

I like this single-story floorplan. At a little over 1,500 SF, it isn't huge, but it is large enough to comfortably accommodate a family. This floorplan and the many variations of it have been built in Woodbridge and the communities to the north that were constructed in the 70s.

I am not sure when the plan was last built, but it isn't likely to ever be built again because it probably does not meet current fire codes. The exit from the master bedroom is a window onto an atrium space. These spaces are often enclosed by later construction leaving no secondary point of egress from the master bedroom. I doubt this is still allowed.

Single-story homes become more desirable with age. There are not many retired people living in the three-story condos popping up in the new Villages. A smaller home like this one can accommodate a young family as well as a retired couple. If you go through your life cycle without buying the McMansion, you could live in a house like this for life.

One of my favorite features in the house is this seating area off the main living room. I would use this space. I don't watch much TV, but I do read many books and work on the computer. In the evenings, I would hang out in here with a book or a laptop and be very comfortable. Late night, when the house is quiet, this would be a great place to unwind and enjoy the fire.

29 Morning Dove   Irvine, CA 92604  fireplace area

I must be a throwback to the 70s. I find utility in this space that disappeared from home design 30 years ago. Perhaps if I get one of these houses, we can have an IHB fondue party on my new whisky barrel table.

70s Fondue

After dining, we can kick back in the groovy living room.

We can play some albums or spin a few 45s…

Then play video games…

29 Morning Dove   Irvine, CA 92604  inside

Asking Price: $659,000

Income Requirement: $164,750

Downpayment Needed: $131,800

Purchase Price: unknown

Purchase Date: 8/21/1984

Address: 29 Morning Dove Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,538

$/Sq. Ft.: $428

Lot Size: 5,452 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary, Ranch

Stories: 1

Year Built: 1977

Community: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: S587361

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 7 day

This is the home you have been waiting for . Beautiful single level home in a fabulous corner location with upgrades galore…new paint, carpet, scraped ceilings, wide crown mouldings, recessed lights, new steel roof and the list goes on. The kitchen has been totally remodeled with white cabinets, granite counters, stainless steel sink and added pantry with pull out shelves. The family room is adjoining the kitchen and has wall of glass and built-in entertainment center with frosted glass fronts. The back yard is very private and features flagstone laced patio with patio cover and built-in BBQ. Run, dont walk… this home wont last long!!!

Run, dont walk… this home wont last long!!! Silly me, I was going to drive, but if running is better…

These homeowners have been in this house for 25 years. Do you think they paid off their mortgage? The property records show $544,000 worth of first and second mortgages — no HELOCs. They already spent their house.

I want that one — Little Britain

I want that one — Little Britain

Flippers Add Liquidity

Today’s featured property was purchased by the lender at a significant discount to its current asking price. What does it mean?

21 Orangetip kitchen

Asking Price: $729,900
Address: 21 Orangetip Irvine, CA 92604


And just…Flipper
Let her cry…if the tears fall down like rain
Let her sing…if it eases all her pain
Let her go…let her walk right out on me
And if the sun comes up tomorrow
Let her be…let her be.

Let Her Cry — Hootie and the Blowfish

Flipper… Dolphin… Blowfish… Get it?

elle and flipper

Don’t you want to be that flipper? Make a pile of money trading stucco boxes, and you too can swim naked with supermodels — or whatever it is you want.

Flippers Add Liquidity

The real value flippers add to a market is liquidity. The flippers who have been successful lately are those who buy at auction and sell for more in the resale market. Given the near certainty of a large amount of supply coming on the market, flipping is a risky proposition. The good flippers know this, and many have been pulling back.

When flippers become cautious, it reduces liquidity and lowers auction prices. Lenders must lower their bids significantly to avoid purchasing the property, and even then, there are times when no flipper can be enticed to buy.

The bank the purchased today’s featured property paid $525,147 on 7/7/2009. If it really is worth $200,000 more in the resale market, some flipper missed a great deal. This will entice them back into the game.

Flipping in a declining market is a game for the quick and the dead. It you get in and out quickly enough, you can profit from the trade. However, if you pay too much or get greedy and ask for too much — well, then you are a knife catcher.

knife-catcher

Flippers add liquidity to the market through keeping home prices high as well. As I noted last week, when flippers drive up home prices, it provides higher appraised values for all properties, and in a kool-aid world, more HELOC money for every homeowner to spend. That is the liquidity every homeowner can appreciate.

21 Orangetip kitchen

Asking Price: $729,900

Income Requirement: $182,475
Downpayment Needed: $145,980

Purchase Price: $525,147
Purchase Date: 7/7/2009

Address: 21 Orangetip Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,300
$/Sq. Ft.: $317
Lot Size: 3,877 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Stories: 2
Year Built: 2005
Community: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: P701125
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 7 day

Gourmet Kitchen Award

MOVE IN CONDITION – FRESH PAINT, NEW FLOORING. Gourmet kitchen with granite countertops, island counter, stainless steel appliances. Dual pane windows throughout. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet; master bath with double sinks, separate shower and jacuzzi tub. Fireplace in living room. Bonus loft. Laundry Room. Dual pane windows. Private courtyard. Must see!

Must see! Really? Why must I see it? Why do realtors say this? Are people really motivated to action by this statement in a description?

This one has been in the foreclosure pipeline since at least last July, depending on how long between the first missed payment and the notice of default. This must be at least 90 days, so the previous owner quit making payments at the latest in July of 2008. It is taking just over a year to process properties like this one.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/03/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000048159

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 10/31/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000500578

The lender will not actually make $200,000 if they get this asking price as they are just trying to get their original loan amount back. Good luck with that.

http://www.crackthecode.us/images/IWantYouToCatchThisKnife.jpg