Category Archives: Library

Did BofA get a sweetheart deal at the expense of the US Taxpayer?

Did government bureaucrats negotiate a good deal for US taxpayers in their loan buyback lawsuits?

Irvine Home Address … 3 CERRITO Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price …… $458,000

I know baby it's hard to be strong

Just take the good with the bad

And don't think you're alone

Cause I know all your sad goodbyes

Cause I've been there before

To help you dry your eyes

Sweetheart

Who love you from the start

Who treats you like a star

Oh sweetheart

Frankie and the Knockouts — Sweetheart

Did Bank of America get a sweetheart deal with the GSEs concerning their poor mortgage origination practices?

Analysis: Bank of America's GSE deal leaves plenty unsettled

By Al Yoon and Tom Hals — Mon Jan 3, 2011 3:51pm EST

NEW YORK/WILMINGTON, Del (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp's $3 billion settlement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have brought New Year cheer to the bank's stockholders, but now comes the hard part: settling far larger and thornier claims made by private mortgage investors.

After Monday's announcement, Bank of America still faces lawsuits stemming from $375 billion of mortgage-backed bonds.

Compared with the deal with government-backed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, those legal claims will be far more difficult and costly and the latest settlement does not change that, according to legal experts and lawyers representing investors.

“It's much more difficult to settle,” Jack Williams, a professor at Georgia State University College of Law, said of the investor lawsuits. “It's going to take a long time and it's going to take a lot of information.”

In other words, investors won't tolerate being ripped off if they have to lose money. If the losses are legitimate market losses, investors may have little grounds for recovery, but if the losses can be demonstrated as stemming from problems in the banks origination pipelines, then perhaps a few lawsuits will prevail. Its an uphill battle for investors to recover anything.

The banks were able to cut a favorable deal with the government because the banking lobby pays off everyone in congress through large donations. They have significant sway with key legislation with their lobbying might. Similar to the NAR.

The deal has little to do with justice or equity. It's looting government reserves by the banks.

The Federal Reserve is the supreme example of regulatory capture. The banks got together and created their own bank and said its edicts are not subject to government pressure. Governments controlling central banks has blown up before. But the banks are now their own regulator answerable to no one, not even Congress (unless Congress revokes their charter).

Talcott Franklin, a Dallas-based lawyer representing asset managers, hedge funds and other investors who have stakes in at least $600 billion of residential mortgage bonds, said the deal might be encouraging because it shows a willingness to resolve claims.

However, he noted Bank of America was particularly eager to settle with the two government entities, which purchase nearly all home loans currently sold by mortgage originators. Investors, in contrast, do not have the same profitable relationship with the bank or its rivals, he said.

Bank of America's stock jumped 5 percent on Monday as investors greeted the settlement as a sign the company would be able to contain demands that it buy back billions of dollars in soured home loans.

I never saw this as a real problem. The contracts for origination would have contained clauses with protections to prevent buybacks. The plantiff will have a high bar to hurdle to force the banking defendant to buy back the loans. The government was never going to force this issue, and the private investors may successfully sue in some instances, but a mass bailout of investors though bank buy-backs is not forthcoming.

In fact, if you look at the subprime lending model, the main reason risky lending was done through companies like New Century Financial instead of by the major investment banks was so that the investment banks could insulate themselves from the liabilities of loan buybacks. New Century went bankrupt facing billions in loan buyback obligations it could never hope to make good on. Goldman Sachs didn't want to face that risk.

Those loans were packaged into bonds sold as top-rated investments, but their shoddy construction became apparent when the U.S. real estate market suffered its worst crash since the Great Depression.

Investors ranging from hedge fund managers to several Federal Home Loan Banks have sued Bank of America and its Wall Street rivals and most want the banks to buy back the securities or loans backing them.

Money manager BlackRock Inc and bond fund Pimco are in talks with Bank of America over $16.5 billion of mortgage bonds they purchased.

Legal experts said the investor litigation will be tougher to resolve in part because the claims stemming from the loans sold to Fannie and Freddie may have been easier to settle.

The government-sponsored enterprises often had higher standards and well-understood eligibility guidelines for the mortgages they purchased. As a result, the lower quality loans were shipped off to other investors.

The people who bought GSE debt will be covered by the government, but investors who wanted an extra fraction in their returns opted for uninsured mortgage-backed securities. The risk was underpriced. The GSE investors will lose little or nothing. The private label investors are not merely enduring a lower return, they are often losing signficant percentages of their asset valuation. They are getting hit hard.

Williams, who has been researching legal issues surrounding mortgage securities, said Monday's deal may even wear down some of the resistance of bond trustees, who have been a hurdle to investor lawsuits.

That could lead to an increase in new complaints against the Wall Street banks, but he did not think Monday's settlement would expand the range of investors considering a lawsuit.

Investors also have a bit of momentum on their side, thanks to some recent court rulings.

MBIA, a bond insurer, recently overcame objections by Bank of America to the use of sampling from loan portfolios to prove the bank breached promises about the quality of its mortgage underwriting.

Bank of America had wanted MBIA to prove its case on a loan-by-loan basis, an incredibly expensive task in a lawsuit covering more than 375,000 mortgages.

Interesting legal posturing on both sides. MBIA wants to find the least expensive way to prove its claims, and the bank counters with the most expensive way to bog down the process.

In addition, the Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh recently overcame a motion to dismiss its case against several banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co

Bank of America stockholders probably should not expect a settlement with private investors any time soon.

“It's going to take a long time, it's going to take a lot of information” to settle investor claims, said Williams.

And it will be handled one case at a time. The attorneys will be busy.

So was this a huge government rip off?

B of A Settlement, Another Taxpayer Rip-off

5 January 2011 — Greg Hunter, Creator of USAWatchdog

In case you have not heard, Fannie and Freddie (also known as Government-Sponsored Enterprises or GSE’s) settled a big lawsuit with Bank of America Monday. The case was settled for cents on the dollar, even though the GSE’s had had a strong case to force B of A to buy back billions in sour mortgage-backed securities (MBS.) I wrote about some of this in a December 1 post called “Foreclosure Bombshell.” The post was about some of the legal trouble Bank of America was having with the mortgage debacle and the possibility of the banks being forced to buy back billions in sour MBS. Here’s part of what I wrote back then, “Mortgage-backed securities have to meet what is called “contractual representation and warranties.” That basically means the MBS are required to be free of fraud and be exactly what the seller says they are. Do you think mortgage-backed securities are free of fraud? Do you think these securities are the triple-A rated risk free investment the big Wall Street banks claim?—NO WAY! The banks are going to be forced to buy back all the toxic mortgage junk they sold. (Click here to read the entire post.)

Unfortunately, the “fraud” in these mortgage-backed securities pools was the underwriting standards often printed in bold on the front cover. The fraud was on its face. The real hurdle investors have to overcome is whether or not the losses were from loans that should not have been in an already tainted pool. A huge number of loans were going bad anyway, the lawsuit would be about the difference created by fraud.

On Monday, after news of the Fannie and Freddie settlement, I got a gloating comment from a reader named “Rick.” Rick tells me he’s retired from the “finance industry.” Here’s some of what he wrote, “I told this would be nowhere as bad as most made out. Hope you read about the settlement with the GSE’s With BofA, 1.3b, this makes BofA total exposure probably around 3b going forward, not the 50B+, everyone thought. Additionally, B of A audit by Moody’s and others has been complete and found that Loan doc’s were delivered. PIMCO will settle for very little in the coming weeks and AG’s to follow. NO Conspiracy and Fraud as you have promoted on your blogs, just very bad process. As stated in our last exchange, I hope you man up and write a new blog retracted and admitting you got a little carried away with you statements. This is what happens when you repeat from others and do not do your own homework. Just remember the fraud was committed buy the rating agencies not the Banks.” (You can read the entire exchange at the end of the Foreclosure Bombshell post.)

I’ll “man up”alright. Yes, Rick you were right, the American taxpayer got ripped-off once again. It was not that bad for B of A because it is another back door bailout for the banks that caused the mortgage mess in the first place. The headline over at Fortune/ CNNMoney.com says it all “Is Fannie bailing out the banks? Of course, the answer is YES! The report goes on to say, Monday’s arrangement, according to this view, will keep the banks standing — but leave taxpayers on the hook for an even bigger tab should a weak economic recovery falter. Sound familiar? ‘The administration is trying to weave a path between two bad alternatives,’ said Edward Pinto, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “They want to bail out the big banks without doing apparent damage’ to the sagging U.S. budget position.” (Click here to read the entire Fortune/CNN report.)

By limiting BofAs responsibility, the government has taken the remainder onto itself.

This is an outrage, especially when you consider what kind of a sweet deal B of A got. Investing expert and owner of a blog called The Big Picture, Barry Ritholtz framed the B of A settlement this way, “Bank of America settled numerous claims with Fannie Mae for an astonishingly cheap rate, according to a Bloomberg report. A premium of $1.28 billion was paid to Freddie Mac to resolve $1 billion in claims currently outstanding. But the kicker is that the deal also covers potential future claims on $127 billion in loans sold by Countrywide through 2008. That amounts to 1 cent on the dollar to Freddie Mac. Imagine if you had a $500,000 mortgage, and you got to settle it for $5,000 — that is the deal B of A appears to have gotten from Freddie Mac.” Click here for the complete Ritholtz post.)

Maxine Waters, a senior Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, also thinks taxpayers got a bad deal. The Congresswoman’s statement was included in a story from the Businessinsider.com. Representative Waters said, “. . . I’m fearful that this settlement may have been both premature and a giveaway. The fact that Bank of America’s stock surged after this deal was announced only serves to fuel my suspicion that this settlement was merely a slap on the wrist that sets a bad example for other negotiations in the future. I understand that the questions raised by fraudulent servicing practices were not addressed in these settlements, and I hope that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with their conservator, are more aggressive in pursuing banks for the fraud I documented in my Subcommittee during the last Congress.” (Click here for the complete Business Insider post.) The sad thing here is I don’t think this administration or any Republican administration will pursue the “fraud” Congresswoman Waters has documented. I envision every other major Wall Street bank that dumped its toxic mortgage-backed securities onto the GSE’s to also get a sweet deal at the taxpayers’ expense. Many more billions will be poured into the banks to prop them up when some are clearly engaged in malfeasance. Former bank regulator and professor of economics William Black has called for banks such as B of A to be dismantled in receivership. He co-wrote a piece last October called “Foreclose on the Foreclosure Fraudsters,” but what is happening here is just the opposite. Once again, incompetence and alleged crime is being rewarded. (Click here to read the William Black article.)

My only question is how long can the bailouts and spending go on? The banks will no doubt get another round of bailouts via the GSE’s, costing hundreds of billions of new dollars. In his most recent post, Jim Willie of Goldenjackass.com sums up the end result of the massive and ongoing bank bailouts in one chilling sentence. Willie writes, “The extraordinary efforts and attempts to save the big US banks will be the precise policy that leads to systemic failure and the US Treasury Bond default, all in time.” (Click here for the complete Willie post.)

Meanwhile, the Fed continues QE2 at a rate of $75 billion a month of pure money printing to finance the country. When QE2 is finished in June of 2011, how difficult will it be to get foreigners to buy our debt? QE3 anyone? I have a novel idea–the U.S will once again raise its debt ceiling. (Currently it stands at $14.3 trillion.) That will be painless for the politicians, and besides, nobody goes bust or gets punished in America anymore. We do not have leadership in this country; we have political hacks taking turns protecting their donors and cashing in—at the expense of the American people.

I think the government will continue to borrow and spend stimulus money, and the federal reserve will print money and hold down interest rates as long as it has to in order to ignite some price inflation. Hopefully, people will get many new, high-paying jobs to cover their increasing cost of living. I think it is more likely that the inevitable price inflation will pick its victims. Some will see wage increases to match the new cost of living, and some will not. What is your COLA?

Another knife catcher trapped by zero appreciation

California real estate is supposed to be a wellspring of unlimited amounts of free money. When prices don't rise and the populace cannot get their HELOC fix, the economy founders, and many borrowers get trapped in their homes.

The previous owners

The owners who went through foreclosure were typical Ponzis living the Irvine home price appreciation fantasy. They bought the property on 7/29/2003 for $399,000 with 100% financing. By 2/17/2005, about 20 months later, they managed to extract $150,000 in free money through continued refinancing.

Think about that: zero down, $150,000 in free money in 20 months. I want one of those… and so did the knife catcher.

The current owners

The bank took the property back from the Ponzis for $473,694 on 9/24/2007, and they sat on it for a full year before selling it to our current knife catcher for $390,500 on 10/1/2008. I imagine the owners thought they were getting a great deal. The house appraised for $550,000 at the peak, so they were getting a 30% discount.

Did they get an under-market steal? Or did they catch a falling knife?

Irvine Home Address … 3 CERRITO Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price … $458,000

Home Purchase Price … $390,500

Home Purchase Date …. 10/1/2008

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $40,020

Percent Change ………. 10.2%

Annual Appreciation … 6.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$458,000 ………. Asking Price

$16,030 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.86% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$441,970 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$93,328 ………. Income Requirement

$2,335 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$397 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$76 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$384 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,192 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$383 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$545 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$30 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$57 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,352 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$4,580 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,580 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,420 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$16,030 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$29,610 ………. Total Cash Costs

$36,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$65,610 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 3 CERRITO Irvine, CA 92612

——————————————————————————

Beds : 2

Baths : 2 baths

Home size : 1,463 sq ft

$0,000

Lot Size : n/a

Year Built : 1975

Days on Market : 204

Listing Updated : 40548

MLS Number : S621727

Property Type : Condominium, Residential

Community : Rancho San Joaquin

Tract : Jh

——————————————————————————

This absolutely charming top level end unit is located in the prestigious golf course community of Rancho San Joaquin and has a large entry foyer that opens into the great room which has high ceilings and a custom fire place. This model has two master suites. Remodeled master bath and floors. For your enjoyment and entertaining this home has two balconies with quiet and serene views of tree lined streets. Near University of Califronia Irvine, Airport, freeways and great shopping. This is a great place to live, why not make it home.

Foreclosures rising as banks move to process shadow inventory

Banks are giving up on alternate delinquency remedies and processing foreclosures in earnest.

Irvine Home Address … 17 BRILLANTEZ Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $798,800

Take me out tonight

Where there's music and there's people

Who are young and alive

Driving in your car

I never never want to go home

Because I haven't got one anymore

Oh please don't drop me home

Because it's not my home, it's their home

And I'm welcome no more

The Smiths — There Is a Light That Never Goes Out

Foreclosure is a painful but necessary part of the real estate cycle. Lenders have tried to delay this process as long as possible, but it is now going forward with renewed vigor.

US mortgage foreclosures rise sharply

By Suzanne Kapner in New York

Published: December 29 2010 20:33

US mortgage foreclosures jumped in the third quarter as fewer borrowers qualified for loan modifications that would have reduced their monthly payments, bank regulators have said.

The rise in repossessions and decline in loan modifications are further signs that problems in the US housing market are persisting, in spite of forecasts by some analysts of a recovery before the year-end.

The number of homes entering foreclosure rose 31 per cent compared with the second quarter and 3.7 per cent compared with the year-earlier period, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision.

2011: The Year of Foreclosure? Loan modifications failed. Short sale programs are proving ineffective, and cure rates are near zero. Foreclosure is the only remaining option to clean up this mess.

These newly foreclosed homes will add to a growing backlog of 1.2m properties in some stage of repossession, a 4.5 per cent increase over the second quarter and 10 per cent more than the previous year.

As of the end of the third quarter, 187,000 homes completed the foreclosure process, a 14.7 per cent increase on the second quarter and a 57.5 per cent jump from the same period a year ago.

As these properties come on the market, they are expected to depress home prices by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent during the next year.

That is a widely held position among real estate market watchers.

The regulators also found that home retention actions, such as interest and principal reductions, had fallen 17 per cent from the year earlier, mainly because of a sharp drop in modifications run by the government’s home affordable modification programme (Hamp).

Hamp modifications totalled 504,648 as of November, well short of the government’s 3m target.

Failure. Unqualified, unmitigated failure. Loan modification programs were a bad idea from the start. The only served to give false hope to people for a while and get a few more payments from zombie borrowers.

Even when borrowers receive loan modifications, they are redefaulting at high rates. According to a report by the Congressional Oversight Panel, 40 per cent of borrowers who receive a Hamp modification are expected to redefault over the next five years.

Bruce Krueger, the OCC’s head mortgage expert, said the decline in Hamp modifications was partially caused by the smaller pool of loans eligible for change.

The real problem is that so many people simply don't qualify because they aren't willing to cut back on their entitlements to make a mortgage payment. Remember, for 5 years, the house paid you to live in it. Paid handsomely. People became adjusted to that level of spending and now they must adjust. No fun.

But Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said that explanation told only part of the story. The problem, he said, was the “inadequacy of loan modification programmes”.

Hamp must compete with private modification programmes offered by banks, which tend to provide borrowers with smaller reductions in interest and principal, thus making them more attractive to lenders and less helpful to distressed homeowners.

Competing with private loan mods? Is he kidding? Banks don't want to modify loans. Banks want to get all their money back plus interest. They need to make enough on the good customers to pay off the bad debts of the others. The created many Ponzis who are by definition, bad customers.

Banks want the government to take responsibilty for these bad loans under the HAMP program. The entire program was developed to take the garbage off the lender's books. Lenders are not offering better deals than HAMP except perhaps for a few choice customers. The riff-raff in the MBS pools can fend for themselves.

Another problem, said Mr Zandi, were second-lien holders. Many first mortgage lenders will write down the loan principal only if the balance on the second mortgage is also reduced.

But borrowers continue to make payments on second mortgages, which tend to be smaller and therefore more affordable, even when they fall behind on the first. As a result, second-lien holders had been unwilling to take part in modifications, creating a “big impediment”, Mr Zandi said.

The Treasury Department recently increased cash payments to mortgage servicers and lenders to encourage them to complete more modifications. But analysts said the government had so far done little to address the problems presented by second liens.

So why are the banks finally starting to foreclose? Higher loss severities will force lenders to resolve bad loans and liquidate REO.

Foreclosures jump 31% in third quarter: OCC

by JON PRIOR — Wednesday, December 29th, 2010, 3:34 pm

Large banks and thrifts foreclosed on 382,000 homes in the third quarter, a 31.2% spike from the previous quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Foreclosures increased 3.7% from a year ago, and more are coming. There are 1.2 million homes in the foreclosure process as of the end of the third quarter, up 4.5% from the previous quarter and an increase of 10.1% from a year ago.

The OCC, which oversees the largest banks and absorbs the Office of Thrift Supervision in 2011, said lenders have picked up the pace of foreclosures to get through their backlogs.

The banks are finally picking up the pace to clear their books via foreclosure. Two thousand eleven will be the year of the foreclosure.

Still, 87.4% of the 33.3 million loans in the banks' portfolios were current and performing at the end of the quarter, which held unchanged from the previous quarter. While the amount of borrowers in 60-plus day delinquency dropped 6.4% from the previous quarter, mortgages between 30- and 60-days delinquent increased 4.3%.

The 60-day plus delinquency rate can go down as properties enter foreclosure. This is the backlog. The increase and new 30-day and 60-day delinquencies is troubling. The pipeline is getting larger.

But servicers reported more home retention actions than foreclosures in the third quarter. More than 470,000 borrowers received either a trial modification, permanent modification or shorter-term payment plans.

Of the modifications completed in the third quarter, 88% included a principal reduction to go with the interest-rate decrease, and more than 54% reduced monthly payments by at least 20%.

More recent modifications are performing better than earlier ones, too. For those completed in the fourth quarter of 2009, 20.2% were seriously delinquent after six months. For those made in the second quarter of 2009, 33.5% were seriously delinquent after the same amount of time.

Hurry! Sign up for your loan modification while they are giving away free money! Does is seem plausible to you that 88% of loan modifications had principal reductions?

Appreciation provides mobility

Housing market participants will endure long-term mobility problems as a direct result of the policies enacted in Washington to save the housing market. Rather than letting prices fall to their natural level and then begin to rise, government policy has engineered a false bottom that will delay sustained appreciation for 1 to 3 years trapping every debtor in their properties for an additional one to three years.

Today's featured property was purchased at the false bottom in early 2009. This owner has marked up the property to cover the commissions and pay for a renovation. Do you think they will get it?

Irvine Home Address … 17 BRILLANTEZ Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $798,800

Home Purchase Price … $685,000

Home Purchase Date …. 2/13/2009

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $65,872

Percent Change ………. 9.6%

Annual Appreciation … 8.0%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$798,800 ………. Asking Price

$159,760 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.86% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$639,040 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$162,773 ………. Income Requirement

$3,376 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$692 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$133 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$97 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,298 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$820 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$788 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$298 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$100 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,089 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$7,988 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,988 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,390 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$159,760 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$182,126 ………. Total Cash Costs

$47,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$229,426 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 17 BRILLANTEZ Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 3 baths

Home size: 2,178 sq ft

($367 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1978

Days on Market: 5

Listing Updated: 40549

MLS Number: S642876

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Northwood

Tract: Ws1

——————————————————————————

Opportunity knocks, better than a brand new model home. Owners just spent $160,000.00 upgrading this gorgeous home and have to relocate. Cul-de-sac location with four bedrooms and 3 bathrooms. Main floor bedroom and bathroom. Private backyard next to the greenbelt. Brand new kitchen with thermador stainless steel appliances, Ceasarstone countertops, custom cabinetry. Brand new millwork windows and sliding doors with custom plantation shutters. New tile roof. Gorgeous hardwood floors. Crown moldings and built in office closet on the main floor bedroom. Brand new custom bathrooms. New Drywalls with bull nosed corners. Brand new water heater. And the list goes on. Just a short walk to shopping and restaurants, close to Northwood high school. No mello roos tax and low monthly association fee.

Mass. Supreme Court rules US Bancorp, Wells Fargo foreclosure invalid

A new ruling my the Massachussets Supreme Court will render two foreclosures invalid and force the banks to foreclose again on the same property.

Irvine Home Address … 14 LACONIA Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $669,500

The small victories

The cankers and medallions

<<<The little nothings>>>

They keep me thinking

That someday

I might beat you

But I'll just keep my mouth shut

Faith No More — A Small Victory

The decision reached by the Massachusetts Supreme Court will make exciting headlines, but the case is not setting any precedent that will allow delinquent borrowers to keep their homes without repaying the loan. We get a look at the bank's dirty laundry, but no groundbreaking new interpretation of law where people are given free houses by the judiciary. The activists in Massachusetts haven't set aside basic principals of law. IMO, this will provide false hope for a few news cycles, and the wheels of justice will slowly turn.

Mass. Supreme Court rules against US Bancorp, Wells Fargo in foreclosure case

by CHRISTINE RICCIARDI — Friday, January 7th, 2011, 1:36 pm

[Update 2: Adds comment form Wells Fargo; adds trade group commentary.]

In a case that could cause many others to be reviewed, the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled against U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo Friday saying the banks were not the mortgage holders when they foreclosed on two separate homes.

The ruling upheld a lower court's ruling after the two banks appealed.

Let's be very clear on what the court did and did not rule. First, the judge found that the banks did not have the mortgage at the time of the foreclosure. That is not to say that they can't file the proper paperwork to become the mortgage holder and foreclose. It merely states that the paperwork was so shoddy that they could not be established as owners in the records to the court's satisfaction. The bank will merely have to restart the foreclosure process and do it over again. No free houses here.

“We agree with the judge that the plaintiffs, who were not the original mortgagees, failed to make the required showing that they were the holders of the mortgages at the time of foreclosure,” Justice Ralph Gants wrote in the court's opinion. “As a result, they did not demonstrate that the foreclosure sales were valid to convey title to the subject properties, and their requests for a declaration of clear title were properly denied.”

To keep their good names, the banks are quick to point out that it isn't their problem, its MBS investors who are getting wiped out. Of course, this doesn't make their servicing departments look good.

U.S. Bancorp said the judgment has no financial impact on the firm, and that the bank's role in the case is solely as a trustee, since the mortgage is owned by a securitization trust.

“As trustee, U.S. Bancorp has no responsibility for the terms of the underlying mortgage or the procedure by which they were transferred to the trust and has no ownership interest in the underlying mortgages,” the bank said.

Wells Fargo said it did not own, organize, service or foreclose upon any of the loans at issue with this case, and that it expects the entities who do services these loans to abide by all applicable state laws.

The case began as two separate events that took place at the same time. U.S. Bank foreclosed on Antonio Ibanez and purchased his home in a foreclosure sale on July 5, 2007. That same day Wells Fargo foreclosed on Mark and Tammy LaRace and sequentially purchased their home at a sale.

In late 2008, both banks filed actions in a lower court to affirm the right, title and interest of the mortgagor in the property were extinguished by the foreclosure — an action “to quiet or establish the title to land situated in the commonwealth or to remove a cloud from the title thereto,” the slip opinion said.

When neither Ibanez or the LaRaces answered the complaint, both banks filed a default judgment against the former homeowners. On March 26, 2009, judgment was entered against U.S. Bank and Wells Fargo.

“The judge ruled that the foreclosure sales were invalid because … the notices of the foreclosure sales named U.S. Bank (in the Ibanez foreclosure) and Wells Fargo (in the LaRace foreclosure) as the mortgage holders where they had not yet been assigned the mortgages,” the lower court ruled.

So the banks have to go back and properly refile paperwork and go through the process all over again. I suppose the former owners are celebrating their extra year or two of squatting.

The judge in the case said the banks acquired the mortgage notes only after the foreclosure sale. That decision was upheld by the Supreme Court ruling.

Later Friday, the American Securitization Forum said it agrees with the Supreme Court ruling, which unlike the lower court allows assignment of mortgages in blank, and “is confident securitization transfers are valid and fully enforceable.”

Finding securitization transfers to be invalid would create chaos in the housing market. The court did not do that.

Tom Deutsch, executive director of the ASF, said the group of more than 330 financial firms is pleased the Massachusetts Supreme Court “validated the use of the conveyance language in the securitization documents as being sufficient to prove transfers of the mortgages under the unique aspects” of the state's mortgage laws.

“In this particular case, however, the executed documents with the loan schedules were not introduced in the lower court and so the (Supreme) Court ruled that an otherwise valid confirmatory assignment was not sufficient to prove right to foreclose,” Deutsch said.

He also said the ruling would have been substantially different had those documents been introduced in the original case.

Write to Christine Ricciardi.

Follow her on Twitter @HWnewbieCR.

The where's-my-note idea will die slowly. The one or two freak cases are the exception not the rule. However, they do serve a valuable purpose. False hope. Loan owners must be given some reason to carry on, and the hope of hitting the lost-note lottery will keep some slogging away at those huge mortgages just a little longer.

Some commentary from Friday's astute observations:

One thing nice about this blog is that people with special expertise often stop by and offer informed commentary. The two gems below were found in Friday's astute observations.

Astute Observation by scottinnj

2011-01-07 11:24 AM

Here is an extract from the Mass ruling. I think words like ‘utter careleness’ ascribed to the bank by a state Supreme Court judge is language that wouldn’t be lightly used. The ruling does make reference to the fact that the title transfers need not have taken place before the foreclosure, but they do need to be done.

I concur fully in the opinion of the court, and write separately only to underscore that what is surprising about these cases is not the statement of principles articulated by the court regarding title law and the law of foreclosure in Massachusetts, but rather the utter carelessness with which the plaintiff banks documented the titles to their assets. There is no dispute that the mortgagors of the properties in question had defaulted on their obligations, and that the mortgaged properties were subject to foreclosure. Before commencing such an action, however, the holder of an assigned mortgage needs to take care to ensure that his legal paperwork is in order. Although there was no apparent actual unfairness here to the mortgagors, that is not the point. Foreclosure is a powerful act with significant consequences, and Massachusetts law has always required that it proceed strictly in accord with the statutes that govern it. As the opinion of the court notes, such strict compliance is necessary because Massachusetts is both a title theory State and allows for extrajudicial foreclosure.

The type of sophisticated transactions leading up to the accumulation of the notes and mortgages in question in these cases and their securitization, and, ultimately the sale of mortgaged-backed securities, are not barred nor even burdened by the requirements of Massachusetts law. The plaintiff banks, who brought these cases to clear the titles that they acquired at their own foreclosure sales, have simply failed to prove that the underlying assignments of the mortgages that they allege (and would have) entitled them to foreclose ever existed in any legally cognizable form before they exercised the power of sale that accompanies those assignments. The court’s opinion clearly states that such assignments do not need to be in recordable form or recorded before the foreclosure, but they do have to have been effectuated.

Astute Observation by Honcho

2011-01-07 01:13 PM

I’m slightly amazed but, after quickly reading the decision, it isn’t terrible. Here are my quick thoughts:

Long story short, the bank has to go back and do the foreclosure over. They didn’t submit proper evidence to the initial trial court to establish their standing to foreclose.

In the short term, this may create a few headaches in Massachusetts where similar shoddy evidence was submitted of the loan’s ownership (the court actually does a pretty good job of laying out the evidence that would be sufficient and it conforms with the standard industry practice of assigning and securitizing loans as I understand it). Owners who defaulted and lost their homes after shoddy evidence was submitted may be entitled to be foreclosed on again after having a prior foreclosure set aside (what a waste of resources for all involved). This might be a problem if you now owned one of these homes that you bought after a foreclosure. If this decision is bad for anyone, it is bad for title insurers.

Good luck sorting this one out, Massachusetts.

Good luck indeed.

Where's my loan mod? is more common than where's my note?

I have talked with many people experienced with negotiating cash for keys. These people are the first responders making contact between the new owner and the holdover tenant whether that person be a renter or a former owner. One thing most former owners have in common is one last moment of denial. The final legal protection they were hoping to use as sanctuary and fend off their foreclosure: their loan modification application.

Most former owners when contacted about moving out of the property (or in some cases to stay in the property) have the same reaction: They thought the foreclosure was supposed to be postponed again and again as long as they were trying to work with the bank, which in their mind was a loan modification in process with someone somewhere. As if this is a foreclosure-proof shield, and banks must give you a free house if they foreclose while a loan modification is in process. What are people thinking?

A loan modification in process means nothing. An approved loan modification means nothing if the two departments at the bank don't communicate in time. Once the sale is done, it is done. Although a lawsuit on that technicality may force banks to buy a few houses back. Just because a delinquent borrower has a loan modification in process, even if they are making some reduced payment, if they are not making the full payment and had their debt rescinded, they have no legal protection and no legal recourse against the lender if they foreclose. It is completely at the lender's discretion once the borrower is delinquent.

Those who believe a loan modification in process is any shield against foreclosure are mistaken.

When did they last pay the mortgage?

April 2008?

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 07/01/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Did they make a few payments and attempt a loan modification?

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/09/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 01/05/2009

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/09/2008

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/25/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 07/01/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Is this evidence of the amend-extend-pretend dance? Will this loan owner suddenly start making payments and everything will be okay?

The bank is likely being so cooperative because the borrower has equity. These borrowers paid $408,500, and although they have increased their mortgage, they owe less than they paid for the property. There is substantial equity.

These are the borrowers they most want to delay the day of reckoning because each month this borrower falls behind, the bank is going to eat up 1.5% of his equity in missed payments, penalties, junk fees, compound interest, and so on. These loans are cash cows because the bank can recognize income from a non-performing mortgage. As long as their expected recovery is 100%, which it is on loans with substantial equity, then permitting these borrowers to remain delinquent benefits the bank. At least until the loan balance gets within a realtor's commission of fair market value, then lenders will start to proceed in earnest while they still have 100% recovery.

The amend-extend-pretend policy is a moneymaker for banks when the delinquent borrower has equity. The subclass of shadow inventory composed of delinquent borrowers with equity will be the last group to have their loans resolved as the foreclosure mess is mopping up 3 to 5 years from now.

Irvine Home Address … 14 LACONIA Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $669,500

Home Purchase Price … $408,500

Home Purchase Date …. 2/22/2002

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $220,830

Percent Change ………. 54.1%

Annual Appreciation … 5.5%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$669,500 ………. Asking Price

$133,900 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.86% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$535,600 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$136,425 ………. Income Requirement

$2,830 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$580 ………. Property Tax

$63 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$112 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,584 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$481 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$660 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$250 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$84 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,776 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,695 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,695 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,356 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$133,900 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$152,646 ………. Total Cash Costs

$42,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$195,146 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 14 LACONIA Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 3 baths

Home size: 1,800 sq ft

($372 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 3,083 sq ft

Year Built: 1988

Days on Market: 5

Listing Updated: 40546

MLS Number: S642933

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Westpark

Tract: Othr

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

3 BEDROOMAND 3 BATHROOM HOME LOCATED IN SAN CARLO PARK.HARDWOOD FLOORING AND BERBER CARPET.

Couple faces three years in prison for squatting without a mortgage

Occupying houses without paying for them is an American pastime. Why are we jailing some people for it?

Irvine Home Address … 5322 PLUM TREE Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price …… $490,000

No stop signs

Speed limit

Nobody's gonna slow me down

Like a wheel

Gonna spin it

Nobody's gonna mess me 'round

Hey Satan

Paid my dues

Playin' in a rockin' band

Hey momma

Look at me

I'm on my way to the Promised Land, wooh

I'm on the highway to hell

Highway to hell

I'm on the highway to hell

Highway to hell

AC/DC — Highway to Hell

Couple accused of squatting in vacant Newport homes

By EUGENE W. FIELDS — Published: Jan. 6, 2011 — Updated: 3:04 p.m.

THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

NEWPORT BEACH – A husband and wife were arrested Thursday morning and face charges of illegally living in homes as squatters.

Chris Wayne Duncan, 42, and Robin Ann Duncan, 36, both of Newport Beach, were each charged with one felony count of conspiracy to commit second-degree burglary, second-degree burglary and unauthorized entry of a dwelling, according to the Orange County District Attorney's Office.

If some enterprising attorney wants to take on this case, I will give plenty of free press coverage here. How can we convict these people of anything given how much legal squatting goes on today? Delinquent loan owners are also occupying real estate they are not paying for. The only difference is that loan owners got a lender to give them purchase money on the false promise that the borrower would pay them back. The only difference between these people who might go to jail and delinquent borrowers is that the borrowers signed some papers and made promises of repayment that they did not keep. At least the squatters were open about their theft.

Chris Duncan is accused of finding properties that were in foreclosure and vacant. In September 2010, prosecutors allege, the Duncans drafted a fraudulent lease of 10 Hidden Pass – a foreclosed and vacant property in Newport Coast – and then broke in and illegally moved in.

It takes nerve and style to squat in a Newport Coast house. They probably could have gotten away with it in Riverside County. BTW, 10 Hidden Pass is a perfect example of shadow inventory.

According to the District Attorney's Office, the couple claimed to be renters of the property and had utilities turned on in their names to give the appearance of legitimate tenancy.

In October, when an appraiser went to the property as part of the process of short sale, the Duncans changed the locks and kept the appraiser from entering the home, prosecutors said. The couple is accused of telling the appraiser that they were legal renters and that the owner should contact the Duncans directly.

According to the District Attorney's Office, the owner then contacted the Newport Beach Police Department, which investigated the claim and arrested the Duncans.

The Duncans are each being held in lieu of $25,000 bail. An arraignment date is pending.

If convicted, the couple faces up to three years in state prison.

Is it harsh to call out the people living in homes they aren't paying for? Are these poor, downtrodden homeowners who are struggling to meet their obligations deserving of my compassion? Were these squatters duped into taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in mortgage equity withdrawal?

I say no. These people made a promise to either pay back the loan or give back the house. I have no problem with them not paying back the loan. They are exercising a contractual right if they strategically default. There are legitimate family hardships that justify defaulting on the mortgage. However, after people default, they need to get out of the house. They need to stop squatting and make room for a family that can afford the house. The squatting is far more irritating than the mortgage default.

Family home of 22 years lost to pre-foreclosure borrowing

IRVINE, Calif. — The Spendthrift family of Irvine Village University Park lost their family home. A house they owned since 1989 when they bought the property for $232,100.

The Spendthrifts enjoyed twenty-two years of the ups and downs of the housing market. They bought in the middle of the second irrational price rally to hit California real estate. The floated on the froth of equity vapor the held the Irvine market up from 1990-1997. They had learned by the late 1990s how to serial refinance to raid their home equity whenever they needed it.

Apparently they needed it quite regularly.

  • On 4/14/1989 they paid $228,500. Their mortgage information is not known, but it was likely an 80% loan with 20% down, $182,800 and $45,700 respectively.
  • On 5/14/1998 they refinanced with a $169,500 first mortgage.
  • On 7/15/1998 they obtained a stand-alone second for $45,200, and the Ponzi scheme began.
  • On 11/30/1999 they obtained two stand-alone second mortgages for $36,570 and $25,500.
  • On 10/30/2000 they obtained another subordinate mortgage for $46,000.
  • On 8/15/2001 they refinanced the first mortgage for $256,000.
  • On 9/7/2001 they opened a HELOC for 64,000.
  • These refinancings go on and on and on….
  • On 6/10/2003 they refinanced with a $322,700 first mortgage.
  • On 12/22/2003 they obtained a $100,000 HELOC.
  • On 9/18/2004 they opened a $150,000 HELOC.
  • On 6/28/2005 they got a $200,000 HELOC.
  • On 3/8/2006 they refinanced one last time with a $508,000 first mortgage and a $85,000 stand-alone second.
  • Total property debt is $593,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $410,200.
  • They stopped paying in mid-2009, so they have been squatting for about 18 months so far.

Somewhere along the way, do you think those borrowers realized they were Ponzis? Did their blind faith in contiinued house price appreciation make their borrowing appropriate? Do you think they will feel any guilt about taking all that money? Or does the pain of losing their house wipe their conscience clean?

During the Great Housing Bubble, when prices more than doubled in about 5 years, the Spendthrifts went back to the housing ATM over and over to satisfy their growing level of entitlement.

Then prices went down, their payments came due, and nobody would extend them another loan to make those payments. Their personal Ponzi scheme collapsed. It's over. They lose the house.

Twenty-two years after buying the property, these loan owners are going to leave penniless, their credit in tatters, and their faith in California real estate appreciation being put to the test. They will not own again for a while, nor will they get the free money ownership entails. It must suck for them to live within their means after not having to for so long. Are you tearing up for them?

Irvine Home Address … 5322 PLUM TREE Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price … $490,000

Home Purchase Price … $228,500

Home Purchase Date …. 4/14/1989

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $232,100

Percent Change ………. 101.6%

Annual Appreciation … 3.5%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$490,000 ………. Asking Price

$17,150 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

5.07% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$472,850 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$102,269 ………. Income Requirement

$2,559 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$425 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$82 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$209 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,274 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$424 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$561 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$34 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$61 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,384 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$4,900 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,900 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,729 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$17,150 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$31,679 ………. Total Cash Costs

$36,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$68,179 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 5322 PLUM TREE Irvine, CA 92612

——————————————————————————

Beds: : 3

Baths: : 2

Sq. Ft.: : 1372

Lot Size: : 1,500 Sq. Ft.

Property Type:: Residential, Single Family

Style:: One Level, Ranch

Year Built: : 1974

Community: : University Park

MLS#: : S599118

Source: : CARETS

Status: : Pending

——————————————————————————

Upgraded University Park Home With Remodeled Kitchen, Recessed Lights, French Doors, Skylights And Much More. Bright And Open Floor Plan Featuring Large Living Room With Fireplace, Sunny Kitchen With A Bay Window, Two Large Private Patios. Tract Is Like No Other With Huge Parks, Lots Of Trees, Private Driveways, Assoc Maintained Front Lawns And Landscaping, Pools/spas/clubhouse.

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

The fallacy of a painless housing market recovery

The economists at the Federal Reserve take an honest look at the inefficacy of their policies.

Irvine Home Address … 12 PLEASONTON Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $660,000

The only way to win is cheat

And lay it down before I'm beat

and to another give my seat

for that's the only painless feat.

That suicide is painless

It brings on many changes

and I can take or leave it if I please.

Johnny Mandel — Suicide is Painless

Most people try to avoid pain, physical, emotional, financial. Anyone focused on playing in the California housing market Ponzi scheme, there is only one painless feat: pass the debt off to another person. Give them your seat and let them own the mortgage. Think about the windfall received by those few that sold in 2005-2007 and rented. Those left owning loans are feeling major pain.

The Federal Reserve exists to foster moral hazard by preventing banks, businesses, and consumers from feeling the ill effects of their poor financial decisions. The Federal Reserve has purchased $1,200,000,000,000 in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to lower interest rates and make the sky-high prices of the bubble affordable. They have printed money through two rounds of quantitative easing, and they help lenders dodge regulation that might expose their insolvency or hinder their business. Given the mission and behavior of the Fed, it is surprising when they publish a fact-filled paper with careful analysis, particularly when that paper is critical of government policy.

The Fallacy of a Pain-Free Path to a Healthy Housing Market

December 2010

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

by Danielle DiMartino Booth and David Luttrell

In the mid-1990s, the public policy goal of increasing the U.S. homeownership rate collided with a huge leap in financial innovation. Lenders shifted from originating and holding mortgages to originating and packaging them for sale to investors. These new financial products enabled millions of Americans who hadn’t previously qualified to buy a home to become owners. Housing construction boomed, reaching a postwar high—9.1 million homes were built between 2002 and 2006, a period when 5.6 million U.S. households were formed.

That is a huge supply imbalance. And like Ireland, much of this supply exists in areas where there is little or no demand. Second home communities are inundated with houses that nobody can finance at prices several times what local incomes can support.

The resulting oversupply of homes presents policymakers with a formidable challenge as they struggle to craft a sustainable economic recovery. Usually a driver of economic recoveries, the housing market is foundering as an engine of growth.

Generations of policymakers since the 1930s have sought to increase the homeownership rate. By the late 1960s, it had reached 64.3 percent of households, remaining there through the mid-1990s, in apparent equilibrium with household formation during a period of sustained U.S. economic growth. A fresh push to increase ownership drove the rate up 5 percentage points to its peak in the mid-2000s. Home price gains followed the rate upward.

Reverting to the Mean Price

As gauged by an aggregate of housing indexes dating to 1890, real home prices rose 85 percent to their highest level in August 2006. They have since declined 33 percent, falling short of most predictions for a cumulative correction of at least 40 percent.[1] In fact, home prices still must fall 23 percent if they are to revert to their long-term mean (Chart 1). The Federal Reserve’s purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac government-sponsored-entity bonds, which eased mortgage rates, supported home prices. Other measures included mortgage modification plans, which deferred foreclosures, and tax credits, which boosted entry-level home sales.

Chart 1: U.S. Real Home Prices Returning to Long-Term Mean?

Adjusting for inflation, prices almost certainly will fall. The relationship between inflation and house price that have been stable for over a century doesn't suddenly break down and fail to limit home prices. If we manage to ignite inflation, we may get prices to hold up on a nominal basis, but adjusting for inflation, prices will fall significantly.

Measuring the success of these efforts is important to determining the trajectory of the economic recovery and providing policymakers with a blueprint for future action. New-home sales data, though extremely volatile, are considered a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Since expiration of the home-purchase tax credit in April, sales have fallen 40 percent to an average seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 283,000 units. This contrasts with the three years through mid-2006 when monthly sales averaged 1.2 million on an annual basis. Before the housing boom and bust, single-family home sales ran at half that pace. Because current sales are at one-fifth of the 2005 peak, new-home inventories—now at a 42-year low—still represent an 8.6-month supply. An inventory of five to six months suggests a balanced market; home prices tend to decline until that level is achieved.

One factor inhibiting the new-home market is a growing supply of existing units. The 3.9 million homes listed in October represent a 10.5-month supply. One in five mortgage holders owes more than the home is worth, an impediment that could hinder refinancings in the next year, when a fresh wave of adjustable-rate mortgages is due to reset. The number of listed homes, in other words, is at risk of growing further. This so-called shadow inventory incorporates mortgages at high risk of default; adding these to the total implies at least a two-year supply.[2]

As predicted, the recasting of Option ARMs and interest-only ARMs is causing many borrowers to stop making payments. Many of those borrowers used that financing because they were in an inflated market. Many of those markets have crashed leaving the borrower deeply underwater and facing a much larger loan payment.

The surprise with the mortgage resets is the lack of foreclosures and foreclosure inventory to push prices lower. Mostly, this is due to amend-extend-pretend and the massive buildup of shadow inventory. These bad loans are out there, and this inventory will eventually make it to the market. How The Lending Cartel Disposes Their REO Will Determine the Market’s Fate.

The mortgage-servicing industry has struggled with understaffing and burgeoning case volumes. The average number of days past due for loans in the foreclosure process equates to almost 16 months, up 64 percent from the peak of the housing boom. One in six delinquent homeowners who haven’t made a payment in two years is still not in foreclosure.[3] Mounting bottlenecks suggest the shadow inventory will grow in the near term.

Notably, not all homeowners in arrears suffer financial hardship due to unaffordable house payments. Those with significant negative equity in their homes may choose to default even though they can afford to make the payments. Such “strategic default” is inherently difficult to measure; one study found 36 percent of mortgage defaults are strategic.[4] Though the effect is not readily quantifiable, the growing lag between delinquency and foreclosure provides an added inducement for this form of default.

Thinking About Accelerated Default? The Average Squatting Time Is Up to 449 Days.

Mortgage Modification Limits

One set of policies to aid home-owners in dire straits involves mortgage modifications, though these efforts have only minimally reduced housing supplies. The most far-reaching effort has been the Making Home Affordable Program (previously the Home Affordable Modification Program, or HAMP), in effect since March 2009. After only one year, cancellations—loans dropped from the program before a permanent change was completed—eclipsed new modifications (Chart 2). Since March, the number of cancelations has continued to exceed new trial modifications, which involve eligibility and documentation review, and successful permanent modifications.

Chart 2: HAMP Modifications Ramping Down

In short, to the surprise of no one, the government run loan modifications programs have been a total failure by any performance metric.

The fact that many mortgage holders have negative equity in their homes stymies modification efforts. In the case of HAMP, the cost of carrying a house must be reduced to 31 percent of the owner’s pretax income. Even if permanent modification is achieved, adding other debt payments to arrive at a total debt-to-income ratio boosts the average participant’s debt burden to 63.4 percent of income. In many cases, the financial innovations of the credit boom era, enabling owners to monetize home equity, encouraged high aggregate debt.

You have to love academic writing. Note the euphemism “enabling owners to monetize home equity” when they meant that banks were giving out free money under the guise of “innovation.” The Fallacy of Financial Innovation.

A study found that in a best-case outcome, 20 to 25 percent of modifications will become permanent.[5] In 2008, one in three homeowners devoted at least a third of household income to housing; one in eight was burdened with housing costs of 50 percent or more.[6] Failed modifications suggest that, without strong income growth, the bounds of affordability can be stretched only so far.

Let's stop for a moment to ponder the math: if best-case scenario is for 20% to 25% of loan modifications to work, then at least 75% will fail. With around 10 million distressed loans, at least 7.5 million of them will not cure through loan modification. Far fewer will cure through paying back the loan balance, so that leaves short sale and foreclosure. Since most short sales fail, that leaves only foreclosure. We will see a lot more foreclosures than pundits are willing to admit.

Without intervention, modest home price declines could be allowed to resume until inventories clear. An analysis found that home prices increased by about 5 percentage points as a result of the combined efforts to arrest price deterioration.[7] Absent incentive programs and as modifications reach a saturation point, these price increases will likely be reversed in the coming years. Prices, in fact, have begun to slide again in recent weeks. In short, pulling demand forward has not produced a sustainable stabilization in home prices, which cannot escape the pressure exerted by oversupply (Chart 3).

Chart 3: Payback Effects Follow Tax Credit Expiration

The data clearly shows the fake prosperity of the tax credit, and the devastating impact of its expiration.

Lingering Housing Market Issues

About 3.6 million housing units, representing 2.7 percent of the total housing stock, are vacant and being held off the market. These are not occasional-use homes visited by people whose usual residence is elsewhere but units that are vacant year-round. Presumably, many are among the 6 million distressed properties that are listed as at least 60 days delinquent, in foreclosure or foreclosed in banks’ inventories.

Recent revelations of inadequately documented foreclosures and the resulting calls for a moratorium on foreclosures—what was quickly coined “Foreclosuregate”—threaten to further delay housing market clearing. While home price declines may be arrested as foreclosure paperwork issues are resolved, the buildup of distressed supply will only grow over time.

Lenders are hoping the inventory problems will simply resolve themselves as a resurgent economy sparks a great deal of household formation and sparks demand for a huge inventory of empty houses. It isn't going to happen.

Perhaps less obviously, some lenders with the means to underwrite new mortgages will remain skeptical about the underlying value of the collateral.

This is the real problem with delaying the bottom. Other than the FHA or the GSEs which are backed by the government, who else is confident enough about the stability of home values to take risk with new home loans? Nobody is. That's why the combined government programs now account for about 99% of the housing market. It is also why very few jumbo loans are being originated.

With nearly half of total bank assets backed by real estate, both homeowners on the cusp of negative equity and the banking system as a whole remain concerned amid the resumption of home price declines.[8] This unease highlights the housing market’s fragility and suggests there may be no pain-free path to the eventual righting of the market. No perfect solution to the housing crisis exists.

Fix the Housing Market: Let Home Prices Fall.

The latest price declines will undoubtedly cause more economic dislocation. As the crisis enters its fifth year, uncertainty is as prevalent as ever and continues to hinder a more robust economic recovery. Given that time has not proven beneficial in rendering pricing clarity, allowing the market to clear may be the path of least distress.

May be the path of least distress? The band aid analogy is best. We should have ripped the band aid off and been done with the pain. Instead, we have gone through heroic efforts to prop up prices and merely spread out the pain over a longer timeframe. The insolvent bankers undoubtedly like the path we chose. I, for one, think it was a mistake.

Peak buyer trying to save what she can

As people abandon hope of another market rally to save them and their finances, they take a hard look at their expenses and ask, “Why are we paying so much for this mortgage?” If there is no additional return on their investment, many will lose faith in rapid appreciation and sell out. It's all part of the capitulation process.

Today's featured property was purchased on 4/20/2007 for $673,000. The owner used a $538,400 first mortgage and a $134,600 down payment. If she gets her asking price and pays commission, she loses about $50,000. So for the last four years, she has been paying far more in cost of ownership than the cost of rental, and she is going to lose another $75,000 to the market. I imagine she thinks that sucks.

Irvine Home Address … 12 PLEASONTON Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $660,000

Home Purchase Price … $673,000

Home Purchase Date …. 4/20/2007

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(52,600)

Percent Change ………. -7.8%

Annual Appreciation … -0.5%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$660,000 ………. Asking Price

$132,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$528,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$136,971 ………. Income Requirement

$2,841 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$572 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$110 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$70 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,593 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$487 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$632 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$258 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$83 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,815 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,600 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,600 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,280 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$132,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$150,480 ………. Total Cash Costs

$43,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$193,580 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 12 PLEASONTON Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 1,703 sq ft

($388 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 4,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1985

Days on Market: 209

Listing Updated: 40540

MLS Number: S620211

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Northwood

Tract: Othr

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EQUITY SALE!! NOT REO!! NOT Short Sale!! Beautiful Northwood area. NO MELLO ROOS! LOW tax rate. HOA $70/mo. Single Family Detached Former Model Home. Bright open floor plan, lots of windows, plantation shutters, custom cabinets & crown molding. Beautiful hardwood floors. Living Rm & Dining Rm w/ vaulted ceiling. Family Rm w/ fireplace, custom computer center & sliding French door. Kitchen w/ custom cabinets & Italian tile floor. Master Bedrm w/ walk-in closet & vaulted ceiling. Jetted Tub. Brick patio w/ patio cover, 2 car garage w/ roll-up garage doors & cabinets. Laundry Rm w/ custom cabinets. Across Assoc bbq, tot lot, swimming pool/spa & Orchard Park w/ basketball courts, playground, bbq, picnic area, baseball/soccer field. Walk to tennis courts, parks, aquatic center, library, stores, schools. Great Irvine Unified School District Award Winning Schools. Minutes from OC beaches, museums, Irvine Spectrum, District, Tustin Marketplace, Fashion Island, South Coast Plaza & Great Park.

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