Address: 2 Bramblewood, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood Pointe)

Plan: 3000 sq ft – 4/4

MLS: S472587 DOM: 45

Sale History: 07/05/2006: $1,150,000

Current Price: $1,289,000

Just a quick glance at the numbers above will tell you that this flip isn’t a flop quite yet. The featured home is a Plan 3? in the Silverado tract built by California Pacific Homes in the village of Northwood Pointe. The sellers purchased this home on 7/5/2006 for $1,150,000. It was originally listed by the previous seller at $1,245,000 so it seems like the current owners tried to catch a falling knife last summer. Bad timing…

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Looking at title information, I’ve found one loan for $920k (80%), so they may have put 20% down. It’s interesting how the home is priced HIGHER than it was when it didn’t sell last year. The description on MLS says “MOTIVATED SELLERS!!!”. If they are motivated, then why are they still hoping for a nice profit here? Assuming 6% in selling costs, they are looking at a $61,000 profit if they get their asking price! I think they ARE motivated because the place looks empty on the pictures and MLS states it is vacant. 7.6% on a $920,000 loan is a lot of money going down the drain each month.

Address: 7 Green Hollow, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood Pointe)

Plan: 3004 sq ft – 5bd/4ba

MLS: S470910 DOM: 51

Sale History: 7/28/2006: $1,230,000

6/6/1997: $337,000

Current Price: $1,249,900

Here we’ve got a plan 3 in the Bainbridge tract built by California Pacific Homes in Northwood Pointe. It was purchased at the peak(?) in the summer of 2006 for $1,230,000 and subsequently listed 5 months later at $1,249,900. Ummm… prices have gone DOWN in the last 5 months, not UP. But sure, I understand that no one wants to lose money. From what I can gather, it was purchased with 20% down and in December 2006 they refinanced the 80% and took out a 10% HELOC. There’s definitely some room to bring the price down on this depending upon how motivated the sellers are.

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Is this is a greedy flip or a corporate relo? Who knows? But I do know that the pictures put up for this home on MLS are of horrible quality which is surprising since the agent is a pretty big producer in Irvine. If you are going to sell your home for $1.25mil, you need to make sure that the agent you are paying a fat commission to is spending money on marketing your property correctly – one small part of that is putting up high quality pictures on MLS.

If sold for the asking price of $1,249,900 and assuming 6% in selling costs, the sellers are looking at a $55,000 loss! Surprisingly (at least to me), another plan 3 sold for $1.35 mil in April 2006. Maybe these sellers tried to catch a falling knife when they bought this past summer.

Address: 18 Oroville, Irvine, CA 92602 (Northpark)

Plan: 2402 sq ft – 4bd/3ba

MLS: S476394 DOM: 8

Sale History: 8/1/2005: $1,039,000

12/2/2002?: $660,000

3/19/2002: $539,500

Current Price: $1,089,000

This Plan 2 in the Mendocino North tract built by Lennar Homes in Northpark was most recently purchased on 8/1/2005. It’s been about a year and a half and now the home is back on the market. From the pictures, the home looks pretty sweet but almost $1.1 mil for a 2400 sq ft house??

It looks like it was purchased with almost 35% down. Can anyone confirm or deny that? If so, these sellers definitely have room to negotiate. If sold at the current asking price and assuming 6% in selling costs, there’ll be a $15,000 loss for the seller.

The latest sale I’ve found for this plan just closed escrow on 2/14/2007:

• 19 Vacaville – Mendocino North Plan 2 – Sold for $1,050,000

$1,050,000 puts us back around the prices in summer 2005. We’ll have to wait and see what 18 Oroville ends up selling at.

Originally posted November 6, 2006

Address: 61 Chantilly, Irvine, CA 92620 (Woodbury)
Plan: 1824 sq ft – 2/2.5
MLS: U6603358 DOM: 25
Sale History: 7/25/2005: $689,055
Prior Listing: 06/20/06 — $832,000 (64 DOM – MLS U6601754) – Reduced to $799,000
Prior Listing: 08/24/06 — $765,000 (48 DOM – MLS U6602644)
Current Price: $749,000

Here we’ve got a Plan 1 condo in the Treo tract built by Brookfield Homes in 2005. The Treo tract is located in the village of Woodbury. It looks like this condo was purchased from the builder on July 25, 2005. The flipper couldn’t wait even a year before trying to sell the home (hoping to make an easy $142k)!

The funny thing here is that the seller is playing the infamous Re-List game. The current listing is actually the 3rd listing since June. If you add up all the DOMs, you realize that this home has been on the market for 137 days (as opposed to the 25 days you might be led to believe).

At the current price (and assuming 6% in selling costs), our flipper stands to make about $15,000 in profit.

It might be a little tricky for our flipper to unload this property as there are another FOUR plan 1’s for sale:

• 87 Chantilly – $699,000 from the Builder?
• 75 Chantilly – $705,000
• 49 Concierto – $725,000
• 61 Concierto – $769,900

We’ll get a better sense of the motivation in the weeks ahead 😉

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UPDATE #1 – February 20, 2007

The featured home in this post (61 Chantilly) was taken off the market on 12/1/2006. But that’s not much of an update, so let’s see what is going on with the other Plan 1’s in the Treo tract:

• 87 Chantilly – Status is Accepting Backup Offers – $659,000
• 75 Chantilly – $675,000
• 49 Concierto – $699,000
• 61 Concierto – Pending sale – Price shows $769,900
• 50 Townsend – $724,900
• 56 Townsend – $668,800

Once again, the builder is leading the way down (40k less than just a few months ago). Who else in this tract can afford to sell for $659k? The pending sale at 61 Concierto seems a little strange. Either the agent hasn’t yet updated the pending price or some GF is paying WAY too much for this home.

It’s February and there are already 6 Plan 1’s here. I wonder how many Plan 1s were built by Brookfield Homes. If 61 Chantilly decides to play the relist game again, they are going to have an even harder time selling now.

Originally posted: January 4, 2007

Address: 108 Mosaic, Irvine, CA 92603 (Quail Hill)
Plan: 3500 sq ft – 5/4.5
MLS: S466112 DOM: 51
Sale History: 4/24/2006: $1,725,000
2/17/2004: $1,043,500
Current Price: $1,749,000

The Sienna tract built by Standard Pacific is one of the higher end neighborhoods in the village of Quail Hill. As you can see from the Sales History, the original owners made a killing thanks to a little bit of luck.

The new owners listed the home about 6 months after they bought it. The notes say the seller is relocating. That’s just gotta suck. They are facing a loss of about $80,000 (assuming 6% in selling costs) if they get their asking price. Is this home worth more (even $24,000 more) than it was in April 2006? I don’t think so. 🙁

UPDATE #1 – January 23, 2007

This is pretty quick for an update but I just noticed the price on this home has already been lowered twice:

Price Reduced: 01/16/07 — $1,749,000 to $1,729,000
Price Reduced: 01/22/07 — $1,729,000 to $1,693,000

The new asking price will inflict the seller with a loss of over $133,000! Will the $56k price drop help sell this property? Time will tell. New home pricing in the Serra tract in Portola Springs starts at about $1.4mil for similar square footage.

The private remarks state: “Seller is relocating…submit offers. Special financing incentives available on this property through SIRVA Mortgage SELLER EXTREMELY MOTIVATED…SUBMIT ALL OFFERS…MUST SELL BY FEB. 5TH.“

From the info I have, it looks like they put 50% down. If that’s true, all I can is WOW! In this case, the sellers will lose a lot of their own money (as opposed to situations like this or this).

UPDATE #2 – February 20, 2007

Another quick update.

Price Reduced: 02/07/07 — $1,693,000 to $1,667,000

With 6% in selling costs, the loss will be over $158,000!

Discuss here