1. Preface & Introduction 2. What Is a Bubble? 3. Conservative House Financing – Part 1 4. Conservative House Financing – Part 2 5. Fundamental Valuation of Houses – Part 1 6. Fundamental Valuation of Houses – Part 2 7. Valuation of Lots and Raw Land 8. The Credit Bubble 9. The Housing Bubble – Part 1 10. The Housing Bubble – Part 2 11. Bubble Market Psychology – Part 1 12. Bubble Market Psychology – Part 2 13. Future House Prices – Part 1 14. Future House Prices – Part 2 15. Buying and Selling During a Decline 16. Preventing the Next Housing Bubble
The
Great Housing Bubble is a detailed analysis of the psychological and
mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing
prices ever recorded. This book examines the causes of the breathtaking
rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the
question on every homeowner’s mind: “Why did house prices fall?”
If you are
familiar with the Irvine Housing Blog and my writing, then you know
that I publicly called the top of the housing bubble when few believed
there was a problem. Typically, when you ask a real estate agent what
is happening with the market, they will tell you prices are going up
and that you should buy now. Most are not capable of properly analyzing
a real estate market, and even among those that can foresee problems,
most will not tell you if there is a problem because they want to make
a sale and generate a commission.
By accurately predicting the
collapse of real estate prices and authoring the book on how and why it
happened, I have established my knowledge in this area. By spending
several years pleading with people not to buy real estate for financial
reasons, I have proven my willingness to tell the truth come what may.
Read
this book, and you will have a much greater understanding of how real
estate markets work. It will help you be prepared to make brave
financial decisions and understand the folly that caused the suffering
of so many. Given the importance of the financial decision to buy a
home, you owe it to yourself to learn as much as possible about how
real estate markets really work. Far too many learned their lessons
they hard way.
You
can obtain the complete text of The Great Housing Bubble in a series of
emails by inputing your name and email address below:
Thank you again for allowing us the opportunity to present ourselves to you in this manner. We look forward to working with you.
Sincerely,
Larry Roberts
When you are ready to buy or sell a house, we are here to serve you.
End of passion play, crumbling away I’m your source of self-destruction Veins that pump with fear, Sucking darkest clear Feeding on your deaths’ construction
Taste me and you will see More is all you need You’re dedicated to How I’m killing you
Seeing the Forest (blog) – Dave Johnson – Nov 24, 2009
Have you noticed signs of “bubble mentality” in the housing market in your area? In my area the bubble is reignited by cheap credit and government subsidies …
istockAnalyst.com (press release) – Karl Denninger – Nov 24, 2009
It is the root cause of the credit bubble. It is the root cause of the housing bubble and the ridiculously-pumped pulled-forward demand curve that is now …
Jeffrey Ingham, a Jones Lang LaSalle executive vice president in charge of the firm’s Orange County office in Irvine, says commercial real estate will …
Baths 2 full 1 part baths Size 2,146 sq ft ($340 / sq ft) Lot Size n/a Year Built 2003 Days on Market 1 Listing Updated 11/18/2009 MLS Number S596456 Property Type Condominium, Residential Community Quail Hill Tract Sand
Great location .. .. ..A nice and open floor plan.. .. .. Light and bright .. .. .. Ready to move in .. .. .. Arched Entry with a gated front Courtyard .. .. .. Third Bedroom is a Den/Office Downstairs, Living Room with Fireplace, Formal Dining Room, Spacious Kitchen with lots of cabinets .. .. .. Master Suite with room for Home Office and an additional Separate Spacious Retreat .. .. .. Inside Laundry Room .. .. .. Cozy backyard .. .. .. Enjoy Resort-like Amenities of Quail Hill including pools, BBQ areas, Sports Courts, GYM , trails and etc
I like using ellipses as they convey the idea that there is more to be said or though about the subject, but the reader must think if for themselves. When I see a grammatically incorrect attempt an ellipses like above, and it conveys that the author cannot sustain a coherent thought, and the reader is floating from one idea the next.. .. .. maybe I should try it.. .. .. maybe people like to think slowly.. .. ..
When Black Friday comes I’ll stand down by the door And catch the grey men when they Dive from the fourteenth floor When Black Friday comes I’ll collect everything I’m owed And before my friends find out I’ll be on the road
The news headlines with green shoots sprouting from Government bullshit indicates retailers are hoping this season will be better. Wishful thinking is not a great business plan, or so I have read.
Beds 2 Baths 2 baths Size 1,479 sq ft ($285 / sq ft) Lot Size n/a Year Built 2002 Days on Market 3 Listing Updated 11/17/2009 MLS Number S596312 Property Type Condominium, Residential Community Northpark Tract Aubr
According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.
BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED HOME IN THE PRESTIGIOUS, GUARD-GATED COMMUNITY OF NORTHPARK! HIGH CEILINGS W/ LOTS OF WINDOWS. OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/ PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. DESIGNER PLUSH CARPET & CUSTOM PAINT THROUGHOUT. GOURMET KITCHEN FEATURES GRANITE TITLE COUNTERTOPS, BREAKFAST BAR, & LOTS OF CABINET SPACE. PRIVATE OVERSIZED MASTER BEDROOM OFFERS VERY GENEROUS CLOSET. LARGE SECOND BEDROOM W FULL-SIZE BATHROOM. OPEN LOFT CAN BE USED AS A LIBRARY OR OFFICE. BALCONY GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING. LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIN FLOOR. PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE IN 2 CAR TANDEM GARAGE. QUIET INTERIOR LOCATION, WALKING DISTANCE TO POOLS, SPAS, BBQS, CLUB HOUSE, SPORTS COURTS, TENNIS, TOT LOTS, WALKING TRAILS & MORE. EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING, DINING, ENTERTAINMENT & FREEWAYS. COME & MAKE THIS YOUR PERFECT HOME!
ALL CAP
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 09/01/2009 Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 07/10/2009 Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 03/17/2009 Document Type: Notice of Default
At least this one was processed quickly….
I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing
the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since
September 2006.
I don’t want to rent a house from you I don’t know how you can expect me to I ain’t moving ’cause I know my rights Too many homeless on the streets at night You own a street and a block of flats You earn your living like the other rats You’ve no morality, what do you care You deal in poverty, you buy despair I ain’t moving ’till the baliff comes
Back in 2004, I was working as a Senior Planner for Danielian Associates. We were working with URBI, a large Mexican homebuilding company, to plan about 40,000 acres of land they had purchased east of Tijuana. Part of the process was a site visit and tour of their other projects to fully understand the product that we were planning for. I was unprepared for what I saw that day.
To the good, my perception of the URBI organization is that they genuinely wanted to improve the quality of life for the average Mexican family. The houses they were building were entry level in the Tijuana market, so you can imagine the level of opulence. This new home represented a big move up for a typical family.
We started at one of their “cookie cutter” developments. Let’s just say they bring repetition of form to a new level in residential architecture. After seeing one of their neighborhoods, you never complain about Westpark again.
Do you think that grass was Photoshopped in? I can’t imagine it living long with your car parked there… there is no garage in these units.
We went to one of URBI’s subdivisions, and it was well kept and looked much nicer than the old run-down houses we passed driving there. In many ways it was like a drive through the old suburbs of Los Angeles, but one or two notches down.
We toured the model homes, and I was intrigued by a 288 SF detached home they were selling. Imagine a small garage 18′ by 16′. Inside that garage cut out a small bathroom, shower and closet. The smaller area left over is for a bed, and the larger space contains a kitchen wall and a small nook-like space that functioned as your living room, kitchen, dining room, basically every other function of the house occurs there. If you put a chair or a TV in this space, you are done; space filled.
The tiny house I just described… it sells for a premium! Remember, it is detached. Some of their attached product — the very bottom of the entry level — was very tiny and cramped. I remember feeling like a gerbil bedding in a shoebox.
It is easy to be elitist when living in Irvine, but this kind of housing represents a big step of the shanty where these people are moving in from. The pictures below are from Peru, but these shantytowns look like the ones in Tijuana.
I can remember vividly seeing the water trucks delivering fresh water to these stone huts. It was the only drinking or bathing water they were going to get, they had to pay for it in cash to get any, and they had to be there when the truck happened by. At the time, my son had just been in the hospital for dehydration with an illness. He would have died in the Tijuana slums. Realizing that, I became overwhelmed by the death and misery these people endure. I still tear up thinking about it.
I am thankful every day for my life in Irvine, and although I may slam today’s crappy condo like an elitist pig, I know somewhere there is a nice family for whom this property is “arriving” at some magical destination: Irvine.
Beds 2 Baths 2 baths Size 1,056 sq ft ($284 / sq ft) Lot Size n/a Year Built 1984 Days on Market 3 Listing Updated 11/16/2009 MLS Number L31423 Property Type Condominium, Townhouse, Residential Community Woodbridge Tract Lr According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property. **BANK OWNED** Charming Cape Cod style townhome. Light, bright, and airy. Great open floorplan. Large brick patio in the front yard. Fireplace in the living room. Tile counters.
Look at the financing for this property; someone making $55,198 per year with a little over $10,000 saved up could afford to buy this property. That puts a market property at about 60% of median income in the area. That is good by historical standards. The bottom of the market will stabilize if interest rates stay this low.
You’ve been walking, You’ve been hiding, And you look half dead half the time. Monitoring you, like machines do, You’ve still got it I’m just keeping an eye.
This beautiful home sits empty (like the heads of many supermodels or any of the Real Housewives). There are no occupants, nobody paying on the note, and no particular urgency on the part of lenders to change the status quo. The resources poured into this structure are sitting idle. It is a complete waste to society, yet here it is along with hundreds of thousands of properties nationwide.
I recently attended the Building Industry Show. Several of the seminars were very bearish, and there was much discussion about what the banks are going to do with all the defaults. The discussion was interesting because it wasn’t focused on whether or not there is a massive inventory problem coming — everyone accepted that — the discussion focused on what the lenders were going to do about it.
There was much frustration in the room because most industry watchers believe the banks are managing their foreclosure inventory by failing to initiate foreclosure proceedings; in other words, lenders are managing the problem by creating shadow inventory. Whenever there is a problem with a loan: defer. Their entire strategy is to delay dealing with the problem until appreciation bails them out.
There is a big problem with the solution of waiting for appreciation; since the shadow inventory is very large, and the holders of it are competitors in a cartel, there will be a huge incentive for the healthiest banks with the least amount of toxic mortgages to foreclose and take their losses while prices are still inflated. Those sellers that wait for higher prices will find lower prices instead. This will go on until the inventory of toxic mortgages is purged from the system.
Can lenders hold up prices by withholding inventory? Or will the instability of the cartel arrangement break down our current support?
Beds 4 Baths 4 full 1 part baths Size 3,833 sq ft ($326 / sq ft) Lot Size 7,166 sq ft Year Built 2005 Days on Market 8 Listing Updated 11/11/2009 MLS Number S595753 Property Type Single Family, Residential Community Woodbury Tract Wdjb
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
This Beautiful Juliet’s Balcony Home will Capture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them. The Entry Features a Custom Made, Cast Iron Gate leading to an Open Courtyard. Entry Foyer leads to Formal Dining Room and Living Room. Living Room French Doors, opens onto a Peaceful Loggia. Gourmet Kitchen with Too Many Upgrades, include Viking Professional Series Stainless Steel Appliances, Dual Ovens, Dishwasher, Center Island with Extra Sink, Euro Designer Cabinets and Granite Coutertops. Kitchen overlooks the Morning Room and Family Room. Tranquil Master Bedroom with Ceiling Fan, includes His and Hers Walk-in Closets. All Other Bedrooms, each have their own Bathrooms. Upgraded Flooring includes Travertine, Distressed Hardwood Floors and Berber Carpets. Details from Plantation Shutters, to the Crown Mouldings, are Spectacular. Professionally Landscaped with Built-in BBQ.
Capture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them… Flowery flatulence.
Why Title Case?
This property was purchased on 11/8/2005 for $1,441,000. The owner used a $1,008,650 first mortgage, a $288,000 second mortgage and a $144,350 downpayment. The downpayment is gone, and the second is going to be shorted.
Happy Thanksgiving
I want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving Holiday. The IHB will have posts as usual, so if you are looking for your real estate fix, you can find it here.