In Irvine, the trees are always greener, and like Lake Wobegon, “the women are strong, the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.” After all, everyone wants to live here; which is, of course, why house prices will never go down in Irvine. Except maybe here…
Asking Price: $618,800
Purchase Price: $645,000
Purchase Date: 4/25/2005
Address: 4661 Green Tree Lane, Irvine, CA 92612
Beds: 3
Baths: 1.75
Sq. Ft.: 1,560
Year Built: 1969
Stories: 1
Type: Condominium
View: Other
County: Orange
Neighborhood: University Park
$/Sq. Ft.: $397
MLS#: S479186
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 105 days
Unsold in 90+ days
On Redfin, “UNBELIVERABLE PRICE , VIEW OF GREENBELT , 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OPEN CATHERAL CEILING LIVING ROOM W/ INVITED FIREPLACE, FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH VIEW OF YARD AND GREENBELT. MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE PATIO. U. C. IRVINE, UNIVERSITY HIGH SCHOOL ARE CLOSED BY. THIS HOME WILL BE SOLD IN ‘AS IS’ CONDITIONS. CALL L/A FIRST BEFORE SHOWING. THANK YOU FOR SHOWING.”
“”UNBELIVERABLE” I don’t know if I believer it either. What is an INVITED fireplace? Did the fireplace seek permission to come visit? Is it staying? Nice to know things are CLOSED by. And thank you for the ALL CAPS as it makes the description it so easy to read… not.
.
{adsense}
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The lack of a second full bathroom is a problem, but there are no other factors working against this place other than the general market environment. This property is in a nice in-tract location very close to the school, the community park, and the large community pool.
This property has been on the market for 105 days at a price lower than its 2005 purchase price. The price will need to come down further to have a sale. If this seller gets their asking price, they will still face a loss of $63,328 assuming a 6% commission. The loss will probably be closer to $100,000.
The rollbacks have clearly gone past 2005, and we are now in 2004 territory. These rollbacks are getting easier to find.
Can I have some house to go with my garage?
Ok, bad joke!
Hmmmm, why no pics of the inside? Is this a fully detached condo? If it is, then this is a pretty nice place and would be a good retirement home.
Sold “as is” huh? Chances are that about 30 to 50k in upgrades and repairs are needed.
Just another decent place in Irvine that should be selling for 350k.
—–
IF I AM GOIN 2 SPEND $600K ON A HOUS, I WOULD EXPEKT THE AGENT HOO IZ MAKING 5% COMMISSION ON THIS PLACE 2 BE ABEL 2 SPEL CORREKTLI!!!!!!
What is a .75 bath?
3/4 bath is typically an archaic reference that means sink, toilet and shower stall (not a tub/shower). Most call is just a full bath. Occasionally, a 3/4 bath will be just sink and shower.
Do agents still get paid the same percentage for transactions as they got 5 years ago? Why? Seems like if houses are selling for 50-100% more, then the agents should be taking a little less. Why should they get twice as big of a commission for doing the same amount of work?
totally agree Mr Vincent.
QFT! I’m keeping track of this beauty for the future. As soon as it reaches >400k i’ll look at it again.
-bix
Because they are greedy douchbags. I would be also if I had to support my expensive habits! ha ha!
-bix
Very true. You aren’t the first to notice.
Since there are very few barriers to entry into the profession, when you have a huge rally in prices on high volume like we just went through, a great many people become realtors. The average pay for realtors remains relatively constant at what looks like a low level. In reality, the successful agents make very large sums while the newbies and the less successful just get by. Many people try it part-time as it is free money during good times. These part timers and unsuccessful newbies disappear during a down time like we are seeing now.
As this bear market plays out, look for a dramatic decline in the number of real estate agents.
If the 3/4 bath is sink+toilet+shower stall, it works for me. I haven’t taken a bath in… um, does soaking in the jacuzzi count?
If that’s a full-sized drive way, then the home is more acceptable to me. I like the greenbelt next to it and the fact that it’s single story. This would make a great retirement home for my parents, except for the price.
Considering its age and rental potential, this home is worth maybe $350k.
“Unbeliverable” price must be a Freudian slip – the Realtor (TM) must have been thinking undeliverable price. In other words, he can’t deliver the wishing price to the owners. Now, that’s truth in advertising.
I read “invited” as “inverted” Ha Ha ha and wondered about it , till I read the further down.
Great blog. You help keep myself sane and it has been wonderfull to read all these 2005 prices.
I live in TOaks, an area similar to Irvine. Lots of home at 700K+ and not selling at all.
In 2004 June it was sold for 531k.. so still a long way before reaching 2004 prices.
This is amazing:
From: “SOCALMLS”
Sent: Thursday, July 05, 2007 9:00 AM
Subject: SoCalMLS – IMPORTANT TEMPO CHANGE
> DOM/CDOM No Longer In Client Reports
>
> With the changing market there has been much
> discussion, contention and even litigation over
> Days on Market and Cumulative Days on Market
> figures. One view is that it hurts sellers, another
> is that it helps buyers.
>
> The bottom line is that you, the real estate
> professional are in the best position to explain to
> your customer – buyer or seller – what the true
> DOM figure is and what it means.
>
> To that end, the SoCalMLS BOD, after getting
> input from MLS Committees and other practitioners,
> have decided to remove the DOM and CDOM fields
> from all Client reports. You will still have this
> information available to you in the Agent reports,
> which also link to the history report for each
> listing. The history report gives you a much more
> precise overview of what transpired for a
> particular listing. With that ammunition you should
> be prepared to better explain to your client the
> ramifications of the DOM data.
>
> If you have any questions as to how to access the
> history please feel free to give us a call…
>
> SoCalMLS
Are you sure a 3/4 is just a sink and shower? I always thought it had to have a throne in it.
Making typo’s and grammar mistakes while journaling on a blog is one thing, but looking like an incompetent fool while representing your profession is another story.
With that said, as a sales person, I’ll take heart and desire over brains any day of the week. However, this housing bubble has invited ignorance and incompetence in to the real estate industry. So much that idiots are now listing homes on the MLS in all CAPS to shock people.
Nonetheless, nothing coming from this industry amazes me anymore. After all, what should we expect when financial prudence was thrown out the window, and drunken spending was rewarded from 2001-2005. I feel like I’ve seen it all. I’ve been desensitized.
Oh well, as the local REIC continues its nosedive, expect to see more incompetence.
I just received an email from a concerned reader who is familiar with this property. Apparently, this is a genuine hardship case as sometimes happens. The original buyer was not a flipper and intended to reside in this property for some time. An unexpected tragic event has resulted in the need to sell this property.
In neither the post nor in any of the comments so far has anyone mentioned the motivations or circumstances of the owners. Please don’t.
It is cases like these that remind me of the need for stability in housing market prices. The volatility that comes when a housing market becomes a commodities market hurts people. The owners of this property have been through enough, and it is sad they are now going to lose money on this transaction as well.
“One view is that it hurts sellers, another is that it helps buyers”
whats QFT?
The children in Lake Wobegon are like the incomes within Irvine…all above average.
-SCHB
That’s too bad when people become collateral damage of this lending/housing debacle.
I wish the financial damage only happened to the parties who profited off the nonsense of the boom
To the owners of 4661 Green Tree Lane, I am sorry about your situation and hope things turn out all right in the end.
In case you’re interested, I blatantly ripped off this blog with a similar one about Thousand Oaks. Mine is not done nearly as well, but I wanted to track some of the Thousand Oaks houses.
I suppose I should include the address:
http://crashingoaks.wordpress.com/
Quoted For Truth! – I like what he/she/they/it said! ha ha
That is COMPLETE BS, when i’m buying something I want a full disclosure of ALL details. I bet some jerk takes these people to court for nondisclosure of facts. They WILL get their asses handed to them from court. Jeeze, how lying/deceitful/cheating do you want to be?
-bix
What am I missing here? Where is the flood of foreclosures? Summer is half through!
Unforunately IR, it seems like someone always stands up to claim some special circumstances around the featured properties and hence isn’t reflective of the “true” housing market.
Frankly, I no longer believe any of the hardluck stories. IMHO, it’s equally likely to be just a cover for bad decisions as it is to be reality.
Maybe I’m too jaded. Or maybe, financial stress, the kind that comes from being grossly overextended as many recent buyers and speculators are, leads to a whole litany of woes ranging from heart attacks, strokes to suicides and drug abuse and hence become the ‘hard times’ that make the person ‘unfortunate’.
I don’t think anyone is suggesting this isn’t reflective of the current state of the housing market: it is.
If these owners have endured a personal tragedy, I don’t want us to callously pile on.
The foreclosures are happening, it is the banks who are choosing not to dump these properties on the market right now. Wait until this fall and winter when they go to clean up their books.
Good luck to you.
Our formula has evolved as we have gone along. If you figure out something innovative, we will probably blantantly rip off you too 😉
Powerplay by the CAR to force people into working through an agent. Typical for them really, you can’t get reliable information with or without them it seems.
Just have to had that little ditty to required documentation. DOM&CDOM for all homes within a 4 miles radius. No disclaimers for accuracy will be accepted, the combined commission is currently $30,000 at the median price. For $30,000, nearly the median national income, we should expect some pretty good work.
Yeah,
Incomes have secretly risen 100% over the last 5 years thereby justifying today’s home prices. Everyone in Irvine has some kind of special arrangement where their income is not reported in the statistics.
I don’t think anybody wants to pile on. When I hear hard times, I think of the family from Ladera Ranch whose three little children all got killed when rear ended on the freeway leaving the mother in the hospital. That, to me, is unfortunate tragedy leading to hard times.
An ailing parent, a bout with cancer, pretty much anything short of accidental death, is fairly common. If we as a society didn’t over extend ourselves and live paycheck to paycheck even when making $200K a year, these challenges become the character building travail and not instant financial catastrophy they are for most.
JM2C, but if you’re buying more house than you can afford on your long term disability payments and don’t have the capital to back it, it’s a dice shoot of timing.
2-5% of the agents make 90-95% of the deals.
See http://www.ochomereview.com/homewp/agentchart/?area=0
“What is an INVITED fireplace? Did the fireplace seek permission to come visit? Is it staying?”
LOLOLOLOL !
My thought exactly – I assumed it was a clever mixture of the words ‘unbelievable’ and ‘undeliverable’, that is, until I read the rest and discovered it was just a plain old boring misspelling.
Not if you don’t mind taking a dump in the shower.
Chuck
It does seem like a reasonable request, given the amount paid in commissions, that realtors be literate. Maybe I will code and donate some spell checking software to the CAR and put together a little diagram to teach people how to turn off their caps lock.
All the more reason for everyone to switch to something like Zip Realty and Redfin. Their systems track it separately. unfortunately, no CDOM when newly listed.
Interestingly, all this does is level the playing field. Sounds like overpriced homes with newer listing dates are going to get their A$$ handed to them without so much as a peep. Gotta show a property to get it sold. If price/square footage are the only ways to sort properties, guess which ones aren’t going to get showed?
It’s all good to hasten the fall!
Chuck Ponzi
Nice thinking there. You are completely right, if the numbers don’t like up then its going to be a no go. Have a nice day, do not pass go, see ya later…..
I can forsee Redfin becoming a pretty good bet by alot of customers, well at least informed customers.
-bix
I am curious — where do the reported income statistics come from? Does it include gifts and inheritance? What about capital gains? What about income from foreign sources, like an exec at Honda or Nissan living in OC might have? A friend of mine bought a house with inheritance money received from his grandfather. His income is less than $100k/year but the house cost $1.3m. A bitter renter might look at those two numbers and conclude that he has overextended himself, when in fact that couldn’t be further from the truth. The greatest intergenerational transfer of wealth in American history is going to happen over the next 20 years as the baby boomers retire and the WWII generation dies off — is that taken into account in the income statistics? What about the increasing wealth gap between rich and middle class (and the even greater gap between high net worth and ultra high net worth — “rich” can no longer afford in Laguna Beach, so they are settling for places like Turtle Ridge)?
Income statistics are tracked by the US Census Bureau. The Census Bureau reports income and poverty estimates from several major national household surveys and programs:
* Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS ASEC)
* American Community Survey (ACS)
* Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)
* Census 2000 long form
* Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates program (SAIPE)
You would have to research each of these programs to see their methodology and the strengths and weaknesses of their data.
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/newguidance.html
Generally, these sources would include the sources you listed above with the possible exception of inheritance. I don’t think it includes mortgage equity withdrawals — which has been a huge source of spending here lately — as this is borrowed money and not real income. Ultimately, that would show up at a capital gain (if the house sells for a profit).
The reality is house prices were not driven upward by increased income, they were bid higher because people were able to borrow much more money with the income they had. As this trend reverses and credit tightens, house prices will fall.
A bitter owner might look at the contraction of credit lowering home prices and conclude it is better to be a bitter renter.
I wouldn’t underestimate the inheritance effect.
The inheritance effect does impact older, wealthier communities like Santa Barbara, but many of these people still have high incomes due to their investments. Measurements of income still include those sources.
It may be somewhat different in California, but my observation from living in Florida for several years was that people do not keep inherited real estate. Mostly, they sell it for cash.
I wouldn’t overestimate it either.
There is a massive tidal wave coming our way that dwarfs anything that could be gained from a generational transfer of wealth. The tidal wave is made up of the huge percentage of people who purchased homes with no money down and adjustable rate mortgages.
This has been well documented here and elsewhere. The primary reason that prices have remained sticky on the way down is because those who need to get out can’t. They didn’t put any money down, and they can’t absorb the cost of selling at a loss, so they lock down on their wishing prices until the bitter end.
Eventually, the banks will reach a point where they are no longer willing to hang onto their huge amounts of inventory, and the prices will drop like a stone. The banks aren’t totally motivated yet, but they will be soon.
There is really only one thing that can save all the FB’s out there, and in most cases it’s not inheritance. It’s massive inflation. Massive inflation makes our budget deficit easier to pay down, it makes our money worth significantly less, thereby making it easier to make the payments on those super-inflated housing prices. Massive inflation also erodes savings and would be terrible for those on fixed incomes. It would also be terrible for those expecting a windfall from their rich parents. I wouldn’t wish that kind of inflation on anyone…it would be a disaster for our country, but I could see us heading down that road.
Couldn’t agree more, Mr. Vincent. I am not a Southern California Native. I just thought the Realtor took a picture of the most important part of the property. I mean your not going to park your BMW ( in which you spend many of your waking hours ) just anywhere!
I couldn’t have said it better.
Bubbles are not good for homeowners and would be homeowners.
Wonderful idea! Please, please do.
“I wouldn’t underestimate the inheritance effect.”
WaWaWeeWah made a good point. The largest transfer of wealth is about to happen as the greatest generation dies off and the retiring baby boomers inherit the wealth.
These inheritors will be looking at the current RE trend, which is just now starting a very protracted contracting cycle, and will probably place the wealth in conservative market funds. This wealth injection will certainly help the stock market and make it an even more attractive investment verhicle compared to RE.
So, the bitter renter who has watched his portfolio grow the past few years, while his homeowner counterpart’s wealth has been shrinking, will have all the more reason to just sit tight in his apartment and get wealthier and wealthier as the performance between the stock market and RE market continue their progression in opposite directions.
Cool!
great to see the thousand oaks blog!! I read lots about Irvine and WLA and Bakersfield, but I don’t live there, I live in the west San Fernando Valley so I am happy to read more about the housing in areas like woodland hills and calabasas, and the east Ventura County like Agoura/Oak Park/T.O./Newbury Park. keep it up, patience!!
btw, any other blogs covering the west San Fernando valley and Conejo Valley? I know a couple blogs in those areas shut down a few months back.
There are VERY few Nissan jobs left in LA/OC. They moved to TN to lower costs!
That leaves Toyota in Torrance, Hyundai in Fountain Valley, Kia in Irvine/Lake Forest and Ford/Mazda in Irvine.
Aside from Toyota none of them are paragons of profitability.
Inflation, (increase in money supply), by itself will not help. Bernanke has to find a way to get the currency into the hands of the debtors. That may not be as easy as it sounds.
Inheritance effect? Savings in this country are negative. Home equity as a percentage of worth is at a historical low. The average amount saved for retirement by those over fifty won’t support the average for even one year. And you think there will be an inheritance effect? Yea, the next generation is going to inherit outrageous government debt and deficits.
LOL. If the bitter renter had rich parents/grandparents from whom to inherit then he wouldn’t be a bitter renter!
Which brings me to another point — the effect that the growing wealth disparity is having on real estate prices in certain markets should not be underestimated. The rich are gaining wealth at a much faster rate than the middle class and poor, a trend which shows little sign of slowing, due largely to globalization — returns on capital will continue to outpace returns on labor. If you think the notion of being “priced out” of a certain real estate market forever is nonsense, well, you can continue working away in your average income job plunking away 10% of your income into a savings account and thinking happy thoughts about buying your dream house in Laguna Beach or Newport Coast one day — but unfortunately, it’s not going to happen.
Hey… sunsetbeachguy…. you better stay off the sun because I think you’re brain is fried.
If you want to talk about Real Estate fine, but when it comes to automotive companies your opinion is a useful as a screen door in a submarine and the depth of your knowledge is shallower than the water in my kid’s turtle tank.
For your information, American Honda, aka AHM, based in Torrance, and they are MORE PROFITABLE per vehicle than Toyota Motor Sales USA, aka TMS. AHM has what is possibly the highest ROI of any large automotive company in the planet.
AHM is a very profitable automotive company.
Huyndai is huge and also hugely profitable.
TMS and Toyota in Japan are profitable because of volume but they have some serious issues with managing their growth and they’re not as profitable per unit vehicle. Their ROI is not fantastic. TMS is also based in Torrance.
Kia has had issues with the ethical and legal behavior of some of their top management in Korea. Strictly personal behavior. I would not count them out so off handed as you did.
Nissan moved to Tennessee because Carlos Ghosn is an egomaniac that has no idea of how to run a company. He convinced himself that moving would saving him lots of money and that he could replace the Datsun/Nissan people with folks from GM and Ford if needed. The Nissan move to Tennessee is worse than anything Chainsaw Dunlap ever did and the company is losing money and talent because of the move.
PARAGONS of profitability they are -with the exception of the self inflicted wounds at Nissan.
And many of the employees in those companies live in OC.
Jeez…
A PARAGON of useful and reliable information you sure are not.
WaWaWeeWah,
It has been several months since we had anyone post here who seems to truly believe all the myths of the bubble:
1. We are running out of land.
2. You can be priced out forever.
3. Everyone really makes more money than is reported.
4. Rich foreigners will save our housing market.
5. (insert fallacy here) will save our housing market.
6. People who didn’t buy are “bitter renters” who missed the rally.
Many of your posts have a certain vitriol that suggests you are “bitter” about what is happening in the housing market. So be it.
I hope you continue to keep posting as your posts stimulate good conversation in the comments.
Thank you for your condescending remarks.
As for the “myths:”
1. In OC this is true (and I’m surprised that you’re disputing it — had you been a resident of OC 15 years ago you wouldn’t have dreamed that there would be high rise condo towers popping up in Irvine).
2. In certain markets, hell yes you can. If you earn the average wage of an Orange Countian and do not have a million dollars in the bank, you cannot buy a home in Crystal Cove. Not now, not ever.
3. I would agree that the earnings of most wage earners are fairly reported, but I would caution that if you’re relying on government statistics for income data, it is likely to severely undercount incomes of certain people (e.g., small business owners, people who inherit, people who make money from invested capital instead of wages).
4. I never said this, nor do I believe it. I simply asked if your income data accounted for foreign earnings. (Your response did not provide much clarity.)
5. (Again, thank you for the condescending remarks.)
6. People who didn’t buy are not necessarily “bitter renters.” However, I cannot think of a better term for people who spend every waking moment posting on a blog about the impending doom of the housing market while gloating about how much money they save by renting (and about how their families still love them, despite renting). Maybe “jealous renters?”
WaWa
how is the koolaid, cold I hope, esp in this heat.
Response to WaWaWeeWah
1. Arguably the land upon which to easily build houses may be gone in the OC. However, look at any of the hills. Where there is a will, there is a way. Also, the high rise condos are a little before their time as flippers and builders are now finding out.
2. Homes in Newport Coast, Corona Del Mar, Crystal Cove, etc. have and always will be expensive. I don’t think anyone here disputes that. We are disputing the prices people have been paying for homes everywhere during this last boom.
3, 4, 5 No comment.
6. I think we are all a bunch of bitter renters. Also, I think I spend too much time reading this blog. However, I LOVE reading about Price Rollbacks, WTF pricing, and the interesting Discussions. There’s no denying I’m learning.
Every day for the past couple of months I have woken up in the morning and have felt like I won the lottery. The lottery being that I called “bull” on the market way back when and now my gamble is starting to pay off and may pay off bigger than expected. I definitely have an extra bounce in my step.
On that note, this renter, and I’m sure all the other renters too, are changing from “bitter” to “grinning” – and that is a beautiful thing!
Don’t forget Mitsubishi in Cypress!
I think that’s the 300th time I’ve seen a “kool-aid” comment on this blog. Never gets old. LOL.
Sunsetbeach guy… you forgot Honda in Torrance also. I am considering heading down to Nashville to work for the many big companies that are relocating their because the costs to do business in that state are dramatically lower than others.
Also for WaWa, and any bitter homedebtors out there:
Some of us renters used to be homeowners and crunched the numbers, convinced that 2006 was a good time to get out of all forms of real estate for a while.
As we comfortably and joyfully rent, some of us never have been and never will be bitter. Our financial positions are ideal, we have fantastic returns on sound investments around the globe, and we watch the spectacle. The worst feelings I have are neither “bitter” nor “jealous,” they are heart wrenching agony for complete strangers who I see struggling because they are in over their heads, underwater with a home they cannot afford.
As was eloquently said above, the real tragedy is the “collateral damage of this lending/housing debacle.” Some honest, intelligent people are being manipulated by unscrupulous realtors, lenders, and sellers and have now been stuck with a depreciating asset. That is agonizing to witness. I’m just glad a few warning voices are trying to protect folks from that heartache.
The homedebtors are in slavery, and their labor is not being repaid, it is being robbed as the home prices hold stagnant and begin what will be a painful descent.
I have never minded the smug debtors extracting equity with less mathematical competence than many high school students and less creativity than many middle schoolers. I never gave a second thought to the kids who thought they were geniuses and creating vast legacies for their families or buying the world for their hedonistic delights with homes that provided more money than honest work ever could. When you have an attitude of abundance, you can be happy for other people’s successes, even when they are unmerited, and find joy in watching them reach their goals, even if their goals are far different from your own and their goals are not linked to real happiness.
I will say that anyone committing any of the many frauds that propped up the market run for far longer than it should have continued should spend a good part of their adult lives rotting in maximum security jails and providing service for those families who over the next three years will lose their shirts in real estate, but that is an issue for another day.
My heart goes out to the homedebtors. If theirs do not go out to renters who, unlike me, are renting because they were not the right age or not from a wealthy family, and came to the housing market when fraud, greed, and the subprime crime had destroyed the market, that is a flaw in their characters and primary reason their hedonism will never lead them to happiness.
Major S,
Just so. I am in a much better mood in the last month or so since I began to get confirmation from Piggington and IrvineRenter and Calculated Risk of real changes in the RE market. For nearly 10 years, I’ve had to limit my exposure to RE, because all I could see was myself getting priced out of worse and worse places.
Finally, I am now seeing my goal of owning a decent place to live, without destroying my other financial goals, begin to come closer. I’m still way far away, but the fact that my situation is improving day by day instead of relentlessly getting worse is thrilling. I feel like I’m 6 years old again and it’s the week before Christmas.
Wow! Well said.
I will respond to WaWa’s #1 myth of no more land in OC. Having lived here for twice as long as him and having knowledge of the homebuilding industry makes this myth is laughable and exactly what the homebuilders want you to believe.
You seem to forget that there are many many projects on the builders’ books that we don’t know about or even when they were bought. Did you know the Brightwater project was originally bought in 1970 and is now finally going to start selling? How about Marblehead in San Clemente? If you’ve been living here for 15 years you know about The Lusk Co.
OC currently has over 9000 acres of available land for infill projects which depending on density would be able to add 70,000 units. That is just infill.
The Irvine Co. has about 20,000 units that are known in their pipeline and that doesn’t include the 9500 units in east Orange. The “airport area” of Irvine has over 6000 units that are being built, approved or up for approval. The Tustin air base has about 2500 units and the El Toro air base has 9500 coming up. If the city keeps going back to Lennar saying you have to build us another school, community center, tai chi park etc. then Lennar will go back to Irvine and say we need nore homes. Marblehead has 2500 units. Platinum Triangle has 16,000 units and Lennar went back to the city to add more. The area south of Ladera Ranch has 13,000 plus they will be developing. I don’t know how many units there are for sure but I think it is over 3000 for Costa Mesa at the arts center and the surrounding area. If you would like to know of more let me know.
Granted OC may not be Kazakhstan but we have plenty of land. Did you know that there are 13,000 less people working in OC since the begining of the year?
Hmmm…I wonder why we need all those new homes? Especially the infill projects and high rise developments? To say we’re running out of land is completely different than saying there aren’t more housing developments on the way. I said the former; you attributed me with the latter. Try to read more carefully.
You also mistakenly state that you have lived here twice as long as I have, even though I’ve never posted how long I’ve lived here. Try to read more carefully.
Speaking of smug…
“had you been a resident of OC 15 years ago” – This sounds as if you are implying you have been here for 15 years. If not oh well my mistake and maybe it should have been written it more carefully.
IrvineRenter said “1. We are running out of land.”
And you responded with your high rise comment. If we need them so badly why don’t you go ask how well Lennar’s Central Park West is selling? You’re right we aren’t running out of land but the builders keep building. Do you know what net migration is and its impact on the economy? From the OC Business Council report:
“Much to the dismay of their parents, their employers,
and government leaders, increasing numbers of young
people are leaving Orange County and its high cost of
living. Recent research has documented that the trend is
widespread and that housing is a catalyst. In 2006, an
Orange County Register article reported on the recent
trend of young adults fleeing the county—a 13 percent
drop in residents between the ages of 25 and 34.5 More
recently, a May 2007 Public Policy Institute of California
(PPIC) report6 found that “fewer than 10 percent of
adults moving to other states cited housing as the primary
reason they moved out of California in 1997. By
2006, the percentage had jumped to 31.”
Recent Census data show that the number of residents
between the ages of 25 and 34 dropped by nearly 12.7
percent between 2000 and 2005, or nearly 59,000 people
in five years. This rate of loss is nearly four times
the state average.”
“Between 2005 and 2030, Orange County’s population is expected to grow by 11 percent, to 3,266,000.”
With that last statement they estimate 200,000 more people here in the next 25 years. I can find you plenty of homes for all these people and I can find you another 118,000 units to add to the 82,000 I already gave you. Let me tell you something whether you have lived here 15 or 30 years if you have been here that long you know what is coming. I can post an article about a guy who wrote the Register in the 90s about complaining how he wish he could read one positive article on housing and all the people coming here.
Instead of trying to point out how I misunderstood your points why don’t you back up your points with facts? Since you claim we are just a bunch of people with opinions then bring us some facts that say otherwise. This will be the fourth time now that I have asked you to add some facts to back your “opinion” up.
Oh by the way NODs were up in June and so were foreclosures. The rate of increase from 06 to 07 is over four times that of 91 to 92 and that is a fact.
What are you so angry about? Why are you constantly trying to put folks down? I don’t know if you realize it, but you sound very bitter.
Speaking of smug…
Have you looked in a mirror lately…
Thanks! That’s an awesome link. I had no idea the http://www.ochomereview.com/ site existed, some really facinating stuff there.
What’s the banks rationale for waiting?
Thanks for the quote! Found the original article, and it’s facinating reading.
http://www.ocbc.org/documents/HousingScorecard2007Final_000.pdf
“This year, Orange County’s population has surpassed 3 million, making it the most densely populated county and metro area in California after San Francisco. Occupying an area of less than 800 square miles, Orange County’s economy would rank higher than all but 36 countries.”
“Lest there be any reluctance toward action on housing, consider that 10 years ago the median price of an Orange County home was $185,000.3 Despite the recent cooling of the housing market, the median price for a single-family home in Orange County at the time of this writing is $634,000.”
Until the lender actually takes the home back, they can include all non paid interest as earnings. Once, the lender takes the home, they have to subtract all the accumulated accounts receivable, due to that property, from earnings. Ouch.
Thanks for the reply.
BTW – found an article that talks a bit about the bank REO problem
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/article_1753263.php
Foreclosures soar, casting a pall over real estate
Owning property weighs heavily on banks. But if they unload homes at low prices, the bottom falls out of the housing market.
Smart Money,
Count yourself in as one of those deserving of pain and hellfire. Don’t you know you are responsible for the crash? You are, apparently, one who profited from others’ pain, and there is a special place reserved for you in hell. Nice friends you have here!
LOL!
You mean “Coño Valley”?
LOL
The interesting thing is they do have room for lots of new housing units, but the real problem seems to be the lack of infrastructure to support it.
The highways are already clogged beyond belief and I am sure the city sytem there is already taxed to the max.
I am not sure it is possible to profit in this world without some pain somewhere. I am an attorney and among other things often handle bankruptcies for publically trading companies, which is probably the very epitome of profiting from the pain of others. But I see fundamental philosophical difference between providing a desperately needed, highly specialized, completely legal skill, while sharing in every once of my clients’ agony as officers and directors of these global industry leaders weep in fear and frustration versus the people who fraudulently talk up a market while simultaneously unloading their holdings and then mocking the very people they have exploited.
Do you see a difference there, LoveMeSomeTurtleRock?
I do not blame anyone who gets out of this market. I encourage any intelligent, financially responsible person to do so. But I do hold responsible anyone who profits through fraud, who deceives his fellow man, who ignores or delights in their pain, or who intentionally blinds himself to reality.
I’m pretty sure that’s a philosophically consistent and noble position. If you would like to show me otherwise through a Socratic elenchus, I’m all ears . . .
Yes and I saw a very handsome man!
LOL! Good comeback.
I was being sarcastic. You are in the minority here in that you do not delight in others’ pain. Funny, how the assumption here is that the homes profiled always involve flippers, scammers, fraudsters, etc. That they all involved option arms, I/O, stated income, 100% LTV, etc., etc. It’s always “other”, never us. Oh, I know, here come the “I feel sorry for this owner” when it is shown that they do not fit in with the above profile.
A Socratic elenchus? WT_
And with ears? Boy, do I feel stupid.
Don’t feel stupid. Until reading SmartMoney’s comment I wouldn’t have believed that a bankruptcy attorney could have spelled “publicly” incorrectly.
Nice one. I also mispelled “ounce.” Can’t fix your typos in the comments section. Oh well.
Here you go, awgee: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elenchus
It’s the fancy name for the Socratic Method.
Even “The Socratic Method” sounds like the fancy name to me.
But that only happens when someone is standing next to him.
yeah, the Socratic method, that’s how lawyers are trained.
Makes other people cringe when you use it on non-lawyers. I just love it myself.
By the way, we seem to feel some good on others’ pain, still it does not help. Prices need to go down faster if we want to be able to enjoy a Christmas tree in our new homes!
Friend of mine working for KB Homes is telling me that they dropped their prices 100K$, still sell however min. income needs to be 80k$ and 10k$ down.
I cannot resist…
“I am not sure it is possible to profit in this world without some pain somewhere.” — Well I do it everyday, If one is a producer or contributor it is possible.
“But I do hold responsible anyone who profits through fraud, who deceives his fellow man, who ignores or delights in their pain, or who intentionally blinds himself to reality.” —— You must be a rare breed of attorney.
Well, on point 1 (profit without pain somewhere), I disagree. Even producers and contributers see some pain some where. “In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground; for out of it wast thou taken: for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return.” Genesis 3:19 (KJV)
On point 2 (that I’m a rare breed of attorney), I’m will you 100% . . . 😉
*with you 100%
Can I get permission to fix my typos, IR? I’m not used to seeing my mistakes . . . 🙂