The Home Price Story

We all complain about the prices in Irvine — which are ridiculous and will continue to fall — but many of these overpriced properties are very attractive homes and beautiful places to live.

8 New Dawn   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,849,000
Address: 8 New Dawn Irvine, CA 92620
{book7}

Pretty woman walkin down the street
Pretty woman, the kind I like to meet
Pretty woman, I dont believe you
Youre not the truth
No one could look as good as you
Mercy

Pretty Woman — Roy Orbison

Today, as we look over this beautiful Irvine home, I thought I would tell you the history of Irvine home prices in pictures.

The Home Price Story

Once upon a time, a prospective homeowner sought his dream home. It is a fearful and daunting task.

Irvine Home Story 1

After much deliberation and bidding wars which forced him to overpay, our intrepid home owner paid a price in the clouds, but he is happy and enjoying life.

Irvine Home Story 2

A wicked recession hits and the support for this homeowner’s resale home price begins to erode.

Irvine Home Story 3

After a time, there is no support, and all the sustains prices is the air from The Great Housing Bubble.

{book3}

Irvine Home Story 4

Everyone in the industry thought it would go on forever…

David Lareah's book covers

How do you think it will turn out?

8 New Dawn Irvine, CA 92620

8 New Dawn   Irvine, CA 92620  pool1 8 New Dawn   Irvine, CA 92620  inside

This is a great home….

8 New Dawn   Irvine, CA 92620  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,849,000

Income Requirement: $350,066
Downpayment Needed: $369,800

Purchase Price: $1,000,000
Purchase Date: 5/31/1999

Gain (Loss) after 6% Commission: $738,060
Percent Change: 84.9%
Annualized Appreciation: 8%

Address: 8 New Dawn Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 4
Baths: 5
Sq. Ft.: 4,600
$/Sq. Ft.: $402
Lot Size: 10,277 Sq. Ft.
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Stories: 2
View: Pool
Year Built: 1999
Community: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S588025
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 8 day

One of the finest homes ever to be offered in the prestigious community of Rosegate. Built by Taylor Woodrow, this spectacular former model home creates an atmosphere of casual elegance while providing ultimate privacy. Designed with an easy flow through out the home, this versatile floor plan will suit any lifestyle. Appointed throughout with the finest of upgrades, no detail has been overlooked. In addition to four bedrooms there is an office on the main level and a bonus room on the upper level. Soaring ceilings and plenty of windows allow for an abundance of natural light throughout the home. Fireplaces are found in the family room and formal living room as well as the master bedroom. Enjoy the ultimate in outdoor living. Oversized lot with salt water pool and spa, covered loggia with custom kitchen, built in barbeque, ceiling fans, heaters, mist system and fireplace. Outdoor shower completes this amazing resort style backyard.

One of the finest homes ever to be offered… Give me a break.

These owners are leveraged, but not to the degree their buyer likely will be. Do you think there are many people making $350K+ in this economy?

.

And so concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog, chronicling the Irvine home market since September of 2006.

Have a great weekend.

😉

41 thoughts on “The Home Price Story

  1. Freetrader

    Nice house. This is an intersting one — I didn’t know there were houses this expensive in Irvine. Both zillow and eppraisal value this house at $2 million. It’s a nice house but — I don’t know — $2 million is a different category than most houses in Irvine, I just can’t see the market for it or what would drive those kind of numbers. Put another way, the current asking price represent an 8% annualized return on the original price from 1999. Now, 1999 was also a boom –the internet bubble– period, but it was before the RE bubble of 2003- are there any assets which, purchased in 1999, have appreciated at an 8% annualized rate since then? If so, can I have some?

    Also, it has a pretty huge yard for Irvine, but the overhead shot makes the lot look tiny. Is it really 10300 sq ft?

    1. E

      I think that the internet boom also contributed to inflating house prices before the toxic loans did. Cruising around the neighborhood on Zillow, it appears that the homes there sold in 1998 for about 800k. At the peak it looks like they were commanding 2.1-2.2M.

      Agree with you on the lot sizes. That’s a whole lotta house for a little lot. I think that lots should be at least 3x the square footage of the house.

      1. OC_Boston_Bay

        I have a customer who hit big in 99 and paid ~$6M cash for a home in Hillsborough (near SF). Zillow shows a slight decline in value from 99.

        1. E

          There’s an area in Seattle called “The Highlands” where I’ve seen some multi-million dollar behemoths sell in the last year for around their 1999 prices also.

        2. Freetrader

          For the Bay Area in general, housing prices are still much higher than in ’99. I bought a house in 95148 in ’98 for $525k, 95120 in ’01 for $790k, and a house in Uni Park Irvine for in Nov ’04 for $795k. Zillow currently values the houses at $800k, $950k, and $725k respectively. So I think what I am suggesting is that the market for very expensive — >$2 million — houses is probably more individualistic and less tied to the overall pricing — at least, that is my theory as a way of explaining how the Hillborough house might have declined in value over the past 10 year. Fewer internet millionaires probably, but the Bay Area economy is still fairly robust.

      1. Freetrader

        I wonder. I noticed the same thing. It might be partly under the eaves? It doesn’t look like a 10.4k lot to me.

  2. winstongator

    I know a couple people making around 350k, mostly MDs, and none own million dollar homes. For that price your monthly payment is in the ‘hood of $10k, for around $120k/yr. After taxes you won’t have a lot left over.

    At what price point do people start funding homes more out of wealth (stock options, etc) and less out of income?

    At least in FL, one reason many people load up on as much home as possible is the shielding of primary residences from lawsuits. At that point the home is serving a function other than purely housing.

    1. thrifty

      I’ve often wondered how those people who stash most of their net worth in their home in Florida and then get wiped out by a lawsuit or bankruptcy are able to pay the property taxes, insurance and upkeep when there’s nothing left. Sounds like a wonderful safety net but the details…

  3. Fire Sale

    http://www.crackthecode.us/images/Dumb_Dumber_Burn_House.jpg

    Police: Owner set fire
    Newbury mansion on marsh deemed a total loss

    By Katie Curley
    Staff writer

    NEWBURY — A Newbury woman has been charged with arson after she admitted to setting her million-dollar mansion afire Wednesday night.

    Police say as flames tore through the house, Nancy Moore, 65, admitted to setting the fire, using rags she had placed on the stove. Police say she told them she was “sick of the house.”

    The house at 108 Pine Island Road had been for sale for more than 500 days, and recently the price had been dropped to $1.45 million. It had been originally listed at $2 million.

    “I observed a female party identified as the [fake]homeowner approach the home,” Detective Aaron J. Wojtkowski wrote in his report, noting Moore smelled of an alcoholic beverage. “She was identified as Nancy Moore. She was crying and hugging an unknown party. As I approached that area, I overheard her making statements to the party that she has burned down the house.”

    “Ms. Moore told officers she had burned it down,” prosecutor Maura Bailey told Doyle yesterday. “She said she was ‘sick of the house’ and wanted to ‘let it burn.’

    Doyle released Moore to her family to transport her to a Worcester-based treatment program. In addition, Moore is to remain alcohol and drug free, submit to random screens and go nowhere near her Pine Island Road home.

    Moore was taken from the scene by Newbury police and booked at the Newbury police station. Attorney Michael Costello arrived at the station to speak with Moore.

    1. No Brainer

      http://www.crackthecode.us/images/uncle-sam-carrot.jpg

      Fight looming on tax break to buy houses
      Can the market function without $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers?

      DALLAS – When Congress passed an $8,000 tax credit for first-time home [suckers]buyers last winter, it was intended as a dose of shock therapy during a crisis. Now the question is becoming whether the housing market can function without it.

      As many as 40 percent of all home buyers this year will qualify for the [carrot]credit. It is on track to cost the government $15 billion, more than twice the amount that was projected when Congress passed the stimulus bill in February.

      In the view of the real estate industry and some economists, all that money is well spent. They contend the credit is doing what it was meant to do, encouraging a recovery in the housing market that is gathering steam. Analysts say the credit is directly responsible for several hundred thousand home sales.

      Skeptics argue that most of the money is going to people who would have bought a home anyway. And they contend that unless it is allowed to expire on schedule in late November, the tax credit is likely to become one more expensive government program that refuses to die.

      The real estate industry, including the powerful 1.1 million-member National Association of Realtors, wants Congress to extend the credit at least through next summer[BIG F-ING SHOCKER! GASP!]. The group hopes to expand the program to $15,000 and to allow all buyers, not just those who have been out of the market for at least three years, to qualify. The price tag on that plan: $50 billion to $100 billion.

      ‘A no-brainer’
      Joseph and Chassity Myers are among the two million [no-brain] buyers eligible for the credit this year. The newlyweds heard they could get money from the government for something they were tempted to do anyway.

      “It was a no-brainer,” said Mr. Myers, a commercial underwriter.

      “Owning something is the American family dream.”

      http://www.crackthecode.us/images/koolaidpainting.jpg

      The couple bought a two-bedroom condominium here in the spring for $171,000 and amended their 2008 taxes immediately, receiving their windfall by direct deposit a few weeks later.

      Their home is now a monument to the government’s generosity. They bought a leather couch, a kitchen table, a bed, television stand, china cabinet, kitchen table, coffee table, grill and patio set.

      “We [foolishly] did exactly what the government wanted us to do,” said Ms. Myers, a third grade teacher. “We stimulated the economy.”

      The National Association of Realtors estimates that about 350,000 sales this year would not have happened without the lure of the tax credit.

      1. E

        Wasn’t it a “condo-conversion” that they bought?

        I’ll bet all the furniture was made in China too.

        Way to stimulate the Chinese economy Mizz Meyers!

        1. No Brainer

          Do these ignoramuses not stink of naivety? Too dumb to figure out that 1 second after the carrot goes away – median prices in their neighborhood are going to decline by 8000.00$.

          It’s like the guy at the poker table who doesn’t realize that he is sucker – smiling and having a dandy of a time with his “pals” who are just there to clean him out.

          It’s pathetic. And to think that the idiot actually used the word “No Brainer” – LOL! I could not have said it better myself.

          These are the same kind of people you see being paraded around on House Hunters, Property Virgins, etc – acting like they are grown ups and being fleeced by everyone around them while being congratulated by their pretend-house-owner family members for joining the scheme.

          We can only hope that we keep the flow of stupid people going long enough to pay for our retirements.

    2. bill shoe

      I have a bit of sympathy for the pyro woman. She decided to recognize the problem and take action instead of passively sitting around her house waiting for something to happen.

      1. Fire Sale

        I have no sympathy for this prick of a woman and her idiot family.

        They could have easily sold the house by lowering the price. There is no reason it had to sit unsold for 500 days at their wishing price.

        Nope. This bagholder was not prepared to just “give it away” and made a conscious (albeit hilariously impaired) decision “if I can’t have you nobody can“.

        Going to the extreme of burning down their McMansion is nothing but some rage by a foolish buyer realizing that she is the bag holder and taking it out on the house and preventing anyone else from buying it for a cheaper price.

        However! I bet the local builders are already lining up with their McMansion schematics in hand – ready to volunteer their overpriced services to the community and erect and even bigger and better monument to bubble credit.

        At least some jobs will be created out of this for a couple months. Perhaps we can rebuild our economy by having everyone torch their houses and then go into the house building business.

        JOBS! JOBS! JOBS! YEE-HEA BAY-BEE!

        1. funny thoughts

          “Perhaps we can rebuild our economy by having everyone torch their houses and then go into the house building business.”

          For those in our gov’t who were capable of dreaming up the whole “cash for clunkers” scheme, they might just decide to continue the saga by going for a “cash for torching the old house” sequel.

        2. Freetrader

          Nice to have you back, AZDave.

          I agree. It reminds me of one of those horrible crimes where morons murder their children subsequent to a divorce — he’s MINE and you can’t have him.

  4. dafox

    I had heard something along the lines of “$10M is the new $1M” during the bubble.
    Meaning that everyone was all excited that their house was finally worth $1M and they were ‘rich’. But they didnt realize that the old $1M homes of the rich were now $10M (an exaggeration to make a point).

    I believe the homes that were valuated at $1-2M+ during the bubble will come back down to being expensive homes, just not million dollar+ homes.

    1. tonye

      The LA Times carried an article like that around two years ago. It was about the cost of homes. Some real estate broker off hand made the comment that “$10M is the new $1M”.

      As I recall the broker sounded pretty smug, as he should be since he was collecting TONS of money.

      Let me introduce a talking point here… I know several RE agents/brokers.

      Most of the are on rollercoasters. When the money is good they live off the hog, but when the money is bad it’s BK time. The tend to over leverage themselves in RE -they drink their own KoolAid spiked with Vodka- and saving money for a rainy day is a foreign concept to them.

      Most of them, of course. Some are smart and well off.

      I wonder what is it about that profession that attracts such individuals? Snake oil salespeople?

      1. Freetrader

        It’s the gold rush mentality. Combine low barriers to entry with the small possibility of making a lot of money and you will get a flood of uneducated, not-necessarily-too-bright individuals into the market place. Of course, most sales jobs have low barriers to entry, but they aren’t usually in industries with such an obvious boom-and-bust cycle. Compounding this, in California you have a lot of smart and educated people who come from places like Taiwan and who don’t speak or write English perfectly, which is required for most professional jobs. These two factors probably explain, also, the fact that 95% of RE listings read as if they were written by fourth graders on crack.

    1. E

      I was wondering the same thing so I googled pictures of castles. Don’t think it was real but some of the castles around Europe are INSANE!

      One article I read said that it was not uncommon for the money to run out before completion.

      Sounds familiar.

      1. tonye

        But in those days if you ran out of money you got your troops, promised them 25% of the cut and invaded the warlord/prince/duke over the next valley.

        Simple.

        1. newbie2008

          Tonye,
          The new model is invade another country overseas and spend billion on the other country, pay congress’ relative hundred of millions for their war effort and contracts and give the taypayers will trillions of debt. I think something is wrong with the new model.

    2. Alan

      Pretty sure it is fake – the island looks like one of the ones off the coast of Thailand (near Phuket) and the house looks decidedly European.

      Nicely done though.

  5. newbie2008

    Looks like a nice $450,000 in the mid-west.

    E, Many of the European Castles owners are selling tour tickets to meet expenses. Even the extremely wealth can get over extended.

    Bubbles are systems to transfer wealth away from the many to the few. Then the many will want the govt to stabilize the system by creating another bubble.

    I’m waiting for Irvine house prices to become reasonable, but getting very tired. CA seems to be especially prone to bubbles. Mining and Fishing boom, Lumber boom, Agric boom, Hollywood boom, Oil boom, WWII intrastructure and general industrial boom, Aerospace boom, Higher Education boom, High Tech boom, Biotech boom, Internet boom, another Higher Education boom. They all had a bust and a RE boom associated and govt expansion boob with them.

    1. Talent

      This is a great point.

      It reminds me of one of the chest-thumping kool-aid guzzlers over on the IHB forums. I will not mention his name but he is about 26 years old and he is very proud of himself for having a 100K+ job in Irvine.

      He regularly strokes himself and pontificates about how there is so much great talent running around out there. This is (in his view) why he is overpaid – because he is so talented. It has nothing to do with the fact that the minimum wage is 100$ an hour because of a bubble economy. No sir, it is all about talent.

      All of this wonderful talent – great at starting the booms, getting everyone else going along with them, and then busting at the expense of the rest of the country.

      A Kool-Aid toast to you, my proud friend. To your amazing talent!

      1. newbie2008

        Con artists have lots of talent, but not the kind I would like my children to have.

        How’s the Kool-Aid drinker doing now.

        Lots of that in any culture. Lots of Worker bees, Fewer Attack bees to keep the worker bees in line, and a queen bees or two, one king bee.

  6. HydroCabron

    Most of the earners in the 250K and above bracket fall into three categories:

    (A) Will definitely remain in this bracket through retirement. Specialist physicians and trust-funders with diverse fixed-income holdings probably make up the majority of this class.

    (B) Will be permanently leaving the bracket, never to return: non-partner lawyers, some independent business owners, many corporate directors and vice presidents, and many real estate types.

    (C) Will be temporarily drop into the lowest six-figure ranges, to return within 7-8 years. I’m not sure how many, but some people are certainly earning large amounts because they have rare skills which will once again benefit them later on.

    How fat do categories (A) and (C) look in comparison to (B)? And are there enough in category (A) to forestall a collapse in high-end prices, particularly when the sum total of $250K+ earners at the peak could not sustain these prices?

    I have no figures, but my own anecdotal experience suggests that fewer than 20% of skilled workers earning that much were truly indispensable. I met a guy who earned $450 an hour and could not be replaced at any lesser price.

    How does the high end survive the return to non-insane financing?

    1. tonye

      General Charles deGaulle once remarked that the “cemeteries are filled with people who once were indispensable”.

      In my experience, once someone becomes indispensable: (a) the technology or (b) the product or (c) the process changes and the person is no longer needed. Typically they become so specialized and costly that it makes sense to replace them.

      So, yeah, the fellow could charge $450 an hour but for how long? Same thing with high priced attorneys, there’s a lot of competition for those jobs.

      Irvine wise, though, I think what’s important is FAMILY income. With so many two earner families, both professionals, $200K+ a year is not a uncommon.

      1. HydroCabron

        “So, yeah, the fellow could charge $450 an hour but for how long?”

        Worked for about 60 years, made that hourly for about the last 40 of his career – adjusting backward for inflation, of course. I picked him because he is an extreme outlier, and the only person I have met who had only a half-dozen peers, all of whom charged the same amount. You would not know his name, but you, and everyone you know, has heard his work.

        But we end up at the same place: Who is indispensable? Many medical specialists are tough to replace, if only because there seem to be so few who are trained, perhaps due to the AMA restrictions.

        Having had many college classmates who are now in medicine, I can vouch for the high intelligence of most of them, but such people are not rare, just a minority. My last two landlords, for example, both MDs, and both highly capable, but with a much higher opinion of their own capacities than was borne out by their day-to-day lives: truly absent-minded recording of payments, crazy marriages to insane women, etc.

        Reading Supreme Court opinions and dissents bears this out further. I enjoy the writing, but I usually find myself thinking “What one fool can do, another can.”

        In which field are the top earners really rare individuals? Nuclear physics?

        As one overpaid fellow once emphasized to me, when I was younger and wondering where I fit in in life: “There’s room at the top.”

  7. tlc8386

    I could of sworne this was priced and sold a few months ago at 1.5??? Maybe it was on the market taken off and upped the price. Or maybe a flipper picked it up?
    The homes for sale in the same neighborhood want the same price without the pool.

    Very overpriced–1.3 is my best price for this one.

  8. Lee in Irvine

    This is a beautiful home … too bad it’s surrounded by delinquent home-debtors, and I mean surrounded:

    4 Entrada W, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $600,000 3 bed 2.5 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure

    Gardenia, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $678,744 3 bed 1 bath
    “This is a Notice of Foreclosure

    1 Alba W, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $600,000 4 bed 2.5 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    Alba W, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $600,000 4 bed 2 bath
    “This property is a Notice of Default.

    3 Alba E, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    3 bed 2.5 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    75 Trailwood, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $1,040,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    32 Mt Vernon, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $618,750 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    4 Tiempo, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $170,000 4 bed 2.5 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    3 Candlewood, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $755,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    8 Descanso, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $503,000 3 bed 2.5 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    16 Sunnyvale, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $750,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    23 Trailwood, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $310,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    5 Clear Creek, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $53,000 0 bed 0 bath

    75 Rockport, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $784,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    10 Lenera, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $471,200 3 bed 2 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    15 Walnut Creek, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $1,000,000 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    20 Abeto, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $405,000 4 bed 3 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

    55 Castillo, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $263,000 3 bed 2 bath

    23 Walnut Creek, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $1,085,000 0 bed 0 bath

    27 Walnut Creek, Irvine, CA? – more info »
    $1,237,500 0 bed 0 bath
    “This property is a Pre-Foreclosure.

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