Resale values in the mid-rise, podium and tower projects are plummeting. When will they find a bottom?
Asking Price: $200,000
Address: 2217 Watermarke Pl Irvine, CA 92612
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‘Til you learn to bend the rules
Time respects no person
And when you lift up must fall
They’re waiting outside
To claim my crumblin’ walls
When the walls Come tumblin’ down
When the walls Come crumblin’, crumblin’
When the walls Come tumblin’, tumblin’ Down
Crumblin’ Down — John Mellencamp
The mid-rise towers in Irvine and in all of Orange County are crumblin’ down. Prices there are in chaos; people are either getting bargains or catching knives, but the discounts from original purchase prices are astounding.
These towers were ahead of their time. Irvine has not reached an income level where $700,000 condos are supportable. When $700,000 condos are the norm — perhaps 25 years from now — mid-rise condos will take over areas of Orange County where people can walk around. For now, they stand as broken dreams and monuments to the folly of the Great Housing Bubble.
From a land planning perspective, I question whether or not densities greater than 25 units per acre can be properly serviced without rail to relieve the road traffic. Since these properties are completely car dependant, there are few opportunities for walking to eliminate vehicle trips. Jamboree Road may become a major traffic issue as all the people living in these properties move back and forth between home, work and shopping. Traffic problems will impact long-term desirability and value.
The resale values of these properties are falling so far so quickly for many reasons:
- It is difficult to obtain financing in certain condominium situations (e.g. GSEs have occupancy requirements).
- The HOA dues are very high. This dramatically reduces the cashflow value because a large amount of the rent goes to the HOA.
- Buyer pool is mostly cash buyers “investing” in these properties.
- Buyers are afraid of the uncertainties (potential for overshoot).
Investing in this context means different things to different buyers. Those investors who are speculating on the recovery and future increase in prices. We call them knife catchers because speculative buyers will purchase early and with the least amount of data and analysis. They are “betting” that prices will move their way. At the bottom, a different style of investor will purchase for positive cashflow and a return on investment.
For most of these towers, rental parity is nearly 50% off peak pricing. Positive cashflow for investment value is 65%-70% off peak pricing. IMO, that is where these towers find bottom.
Asking Price: $200,000
Income Requirement: $50,000
Downpayment Needed: $40,000
Purchase Price: $310,000
Purchase Date: 8/26/2005
Address: 2217 Watermarke Pl Irvine, CA 92612
Beds: | 1 |
Baths: | 1 |
Sq. Ft.: | 635 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $315 |
Lot Size: | – |
Property Type: | Condominium |
Style: | French |
Stories: | 1 |
Floor: | 2 |
View: | City, Park or Green Belt, Treetop, Trees/Woods, Has View |
Year Built: | 2003 |
Community: | Airport Area |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | S582681 |
Source: | SoCalMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 3 days |
the Greenbelt. Home includes granite counters in Kitchen and Bathroom,
crown molding, window treatments throughout. Experience a sophisticated
lifestyle in one of the best condominiums in Orange County! The
Watermarke Community provides you with a bounty of amenities such as a
concierge service, top-of-the-line fitness center, movie viewing room,
pools, spas, and tennis courts.
I’ll stay with my unsophisticated lifestyle.
This property was purchased on 8/26/2005 for $310,000. The owner used $248,000 first mortgage, a $15,500 second mortgage and a $46,500 downpayment. There is a HELOC from 2007 for $68,404. If this guy took out the money, he got is downpayment back. If he didn’t max out the HELOC, he lost $46,500 in addition to having his credit trashed.
The above property is being offered for 35% off its 2005 price.
Asking Price: $319,000
Income Requirement: $79,750
Downpayment Needed: $63,800
Purchase Price: $519,500
Purchase Date: 2/10/2006
Address: 2118 Scholarship Irvine, CA 92612
Beds: | 2 |
Baths: | 2 |
Sq. Ft.: | 1,037 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $308 |
Lot Size: | – |
Property Type: | Condominium |
Style: | Other |
Stories: | 1 |
Floor: | 1 |
Year Built: | 2006 |
Community: | Airport Area |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | P696025 |
Source: | SoCalMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 4 days |
community of AVENUE ONE! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo has the finest of
details throughout. Features include: granite kitchen and bathroom
countertops, rich dark wood cabinets, two panel doors, crown molding,
patio, very open and bright. The community ammenities include an
Olympic sized pool, Bar-B-Ques, fitness room, indoor half basketball
court and beautiful club house with full kitchen and flat screen TV.
Only built in 2006, this wonderful home and community are located close
to shopping, dining and entertainment. This is one great home you don’t
want to miss!
Another sophisticated condo!
ammenities?
I have no purchase or mortgage data for the above, but I do know than an NOD was filed in May.
That is individual capitulation. Will this become a mass movement?
The above property is being offered for 39% off its 2005 price.
Asking Price: $879,000
Income Requirement: $219,750
Downpayment Needed: $175,800
Purchase Price: $1,430,000
Purchase Date: 2/7/2006
Address: 3131 Michelson #1504 Irvine, CA 92612
Beds: | 2 |
Baths: | 3 |
Sq. Ft.: | 2,063 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $426 |
Lot Size: | – |
Property Type: | Condominium |
Style: | Contemporary/Modern, Hi-Rise/Mid-Rise Condominimum |
Stories: | 1 |
Floor: | 1 |
View: | City Lights |
Year Built: | 2006 |
Community: | Airport Area |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | S581994 |
Source: | SoCalMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 9 days |
floor to ceiling views including a view of Catalina Island. 2BR + Den,
2.5 BA offers the finest in modern appointments with stainless steel
appliances, hardwood floors, granite counter tops and more. Pamper
yourself with full time concierge services, social events, gym, media
room, board room with Wi-Fi, billiards lounge, pool and spa. This
gorgeous home is the ultimate in living! And REALLY a great deal – to
be sold as is.
And REALLY a great deal – to
be sold as is. I find the linking of those incompatible ideas disturbing.
This is a two-bedroom condo that sold for $1,430,000. WTF?
I do not have the records for this one either, but someone involved is taking a $603,740 loss — assuming they get this asking price and pay 6%.
The above property is also being offered for 39% off its 2005 price.
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Conference Call Reminder
The IHB Community has been invited to an open conference call with Daniel Young, President of Community Development for the Irvine Company. The time is 7:00 PM. The call-in number is 877 269-7289. Callers will be asked to enter a
PIN, which is 13113. That allows them to listen to the conversation.
If they want to ask a question—and Dan will remind people of this
periodically—they need to hit *3. They can also e-mail questions to
Dan at info@cardinalhq.com.
Personal Note
I am taking a few days off and visiting with family, so I will be less available in the comments this week. Judging by the upsurge in comments lately, you all will carry on without me.
Your astute observations are greatly appreciated here. It is your participation that makes this blog special.