Two Years Through the System

Properties take a long time from the initial financial stress of the owner through foreclosure and on to sale in the open market. Today’s featured property is nearly two years into its journey.

Asking Price: $519,900

Address: 75 Burlingame, Irvine, CA 92602

How Long — The Eagles

Well I wish I lived in the land of fools,
no one knew my name
But what you get is not quite what you choose
Tell me, how long, how long

I first featured today’s property in the post Burlingame Over on July, 26, 2007. In fact, I still have the pictures from that listing, so that puts me one ahead of the listing agent. I do like his pretty REO sign out front though.

Based on the previous listing, this homeowner was either a flipper or someone who was overextended from the start and wanted to get out. The financial distress of being a loanowner finally caused them to default at the end of 2007. A formal notice of default is issued at least 90 days after missing the first payment, so we can assume by the 4/10/2008 NOD, that this owner has not made a payment since December of 2007, and maybe even further back than that.

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/06/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000052970

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/10/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2008000164962

The records show the lender took ten months from NOD to NOT. This is supposed to be a 90 day process; seven full months were added to the process. That is seven months of free rent in addition to the seven a homedebtor automatically gets in the foreclosure process.

Once the bank finally decided to foreclose, they did do it promptly. The action took place on 3/2/2009 and the H&R BLOCK BANK paid $611,036 for the property.

Based on what I am seeing, unless the foreclosure process picks up later in the real estate cycle, rather than this problem being resolved by 2013, it will probably drag out until 2016 or later. There will be no meaningful price appreciation until the foreclosure problem is behind us.

Burlingame Front Burlingame Kitchen

Asking Price: $519,900

Income Requirement: $129,975

Downpayment Needed: $103,980

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,333

Purchase Price: $712,500

Purchase Date: 5/31/2006

Address: 75 Burlingame, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,664
$/Sq. Ft.: $312
Lot Size:
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Stories: 2
Floor: 1
Year Built: 2000
Community: Northpark
County: Orange
MLS#: P689224
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day

Private Northpark guard gated location, end unit excellent location,
two bedroom and loft area close to pool and greenbelt area

Another I-don’t-give-a-shit description.

This property was purchased on 5/31/2006 for $712,500–let that sink in for a moment. Someone paid that much for a 2 bedroom 2 bath condo and thought it was rational. Anyway, the owner used a $676,875 first mortgage and a $35,625 downpayment. Since this was purchased right at the peak, there were no further refinances.

If this property sells for its current asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss will be $233,794. The property is being offered for 27% off its peak purchase price.

It is still overpriced.

BTW, I thought you might find this 20 year rollback interesting. It is a condo in Corona selling for less than its 1989 sales price. The 1989 sale was near the peak of the previous bubble, and I long suspected we would find a rollback like this one in our area. This isn’t a trashout. The only reason it has rolled back 20 years is because that is what it is worth to a cashflow investor today. If the previous bubble got 20 years ahead of current valuations, how far ahead of time was the Great Housing Bubble?

61 thoughts on “Two Years Through the System

  1. MalibuRenter

    There are plenty more 1980s rollbacks coming. By the time you get past early 2000 pricing, you are at both 1989 pricing and 1999 pricing. 1996 pricing = 1988 pricing, without any adjustments for inflation.

    Adjusting for inflation, you have to cut 2009 levels by almost half to get to 1989. Something which sold for $500k in both years is selling for about half as much in real terms in 2009.

    1. AZDavidPhx

      That’s assuming current incomes remain inflated.

      A nice little article here echoing what I have been saying awhile now:

      ————————————————
      Laid off? You’ll likely never make as much
      BY GREG BURNS – CHICAGO TRIBUNE
      Published: 06/03/09

      A former vice president caught up in a layoff eventually finds another job, but at the director level. An ex-director gets hired as a manager, and so on down the economic food chain.

      As a general rule, when you go back to work in this environment, you’re going to be making less than you did before, certainly to start with,” said Healy, regional manager of a shipping company. “Maybe you never get it back.

      If you lose your job, you’re going to have pretty big losses,” said Till von Wachter, a Columbia University economist and co-author of the study. “It’s permanent and substantial. It’s longer lasting than previously thought.”

      And it’s widespread: Less than one in 10 who lose their job in a layoff eventually come out ahead.

      The huge decline in lifetime earnings stems from two common-sense factors: For starters, it’s tough to find a good job, even if you already had one. As von Wachter puts it, “It’s hard to get lucky twice.” Also, when industries downsize, demand declines for the relevant skills, which can leave an entire work force high and dry. Ask a steelworker about it sometime.

      Unfortunately, the next 20 years could be harder on those losing their jobs than the period of economic growth that followed 1982. Many experts predict that a globalized labor market will make it tough for jobless American workers to stage a financial comeback.

      In addition, the economy has become more of a winner-take-all proposition, with outsized rewards at the top and less for all others.

      The flip side: High earners suffer the most in a layoff. If factory workers lose 20 percent, investment bankers probably lose 40 percent, von Wachter noted.

      She reckons that conditions are worse now than in 1982 because the layoffs are so widespread. It’s not just the Rust Belt falling apart, she observed: “It’s everyone.”

      Edmunds sees parallels with the stages of grief, as anger and depression give way to a sad acceptance. “It is almost like a death,” she said.
      ————————————————-

      1. Chris

        I have been expecting this since the explosion of dot com mania back in late 90s even though I was trying to jack up my salary/hourly pay jumping around from one company to another since early 90s. Knowing that this won’t last forever, I diligently saved as though I was making less than 1/2 of what my salary was. The Nasdaq bomb hurt me somewhat but the housing bubble did me wonders (and the fact that I stopped believe in the stock market after the dot bomb).

        Now, happily semi-retired before age 40, I can say that success can only be achieved by what you sow.

    1. Anonymous

      Ha ha ha. Nice video. Went to the carwash today, there was a GM van with a big logo saying it was some kind of electric test vehicle. The driver and the car wash owner talked a long while, then the van had to back up – car washer wouldn’t wash it for some reason. One has to wonder if the reason was payment related …

      1. lowrydr310

        I actually like the high desert, and wouldn’t mind living there. The best part is that I’ve gotten a job offer from a big company in the area which would match my current salary; that would translate to a big decrease in cost of living.

        Unfortunately I can’t convince my wife to move there.

        I also didn’t factor in the additional utility costs for the electricity to cool a house to a reasonable level during the hot months.

        See? Who said Southern California isn’t affordable? You could easily find good deals in Palmdale/Lancaster/Riverside/San Bernardino

        1. Perspective

          “…Unfortunately I can’t convince my wife to move there…”

          I don’t think you could convince ANYONE’s wife to move there!

  2. dafox

    I truly believe we’ve seen the ‘terminal velocity’ of what banks can handle. its right around 2500 NODs/mo in OC. They just cant process any faster. The giant spike was NODs that had been processed during the moratoriums and had postage ready to go the day they were up.

    And this timeline fits perfectly with all the other NOD->REOs in OC. It takes right at about 12mo.

  3. AZDavidPhx

    ————————————————-
    Geithner faces sluggish market, rents out NY home

    NEW YORK (AP) — The real estate market’s troubles are hitting close to home for Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

    After reducing the price on his house in a tony New York City suburb to less than he paid for it, Geithner still couldn’t sell and recently rented it out instead, according to real estate agents familiar with the deal.

    A few weeks after the asking price was dropped to $1.575 million, the home was rented for $7,500 a month on May 21, said the agents, Scott Stiefvater of Stiefvater Real Estate and Debbie Meiliken of Keller Williams Realty New York.

    While that sounds like a lot for rent, it probably falls a bit short of the monthly mortgage payments on the Geithners’ two loans totaling $1.25 million, plus $27,000 a year in property taxes.

    Records show Geithner and his wife, Carole Sonnenfeld Geithner, paid $1.602 million for the home in 2004.

    The roller-coaster housing market helped spawn the recession Geithner is tasked with ending.
    ————————————————-
    Fantastic, even the members of our leadership are debtors. Buying 1.6 million dollar houses and borrowing 1.25 million – WTF? If you are buying that kind of a house then you should be well off enough to not need a damn mortgage.

    Does anyone else find this conflict of interest disturbing? It is totally in this prick’s best interest to keep housing values inflated in order to find a greater fool to buy his own house. If credit dries up; he knows that he is a bagholder.

    Isn’t a guy like this with all these bills to pay more likely to succumb to bribery and corruption? Especially now that he actually has to pay income tax like the rest of us and can’t evade it anymore now that he’s got the spotlight.

    This definitely does not raise my confidence in the government’s ability to successfully mitigate this problem and further makes me believe that they will continue to make things worse for the rest of us in order to help themselves.

    1. tlc8386

      Everyone was drinking the koolaid, Geithner is no different than anyone else making 200k-plus thinking they could afford a huge loan.

      1. AZDavidPhx

        He may have the means to service the monthly payment, but still… Put yourself in his place – he has a personal interest in propping up the bubble.

        I would think that we would want someone in there who is neutral on the subject and capable of looking at the situation without bias.

        Walk into his office and try telling him that housing is unaffordable and prices need a 50% haircut. I wonder if he would agree…

        Not good. We can look forward to more self-serving policies.

        1. tlc8386

          There is no one neutral on the subject everyone is affected they tried and allowed housing to fall and when the numbers infected the banks with losses too big to hide out came the truth that everyone and their brother took out heloco’s–had a subprime/alt-a loan–sold MBS, CDO’s. The entire financial industry was riding the bubble in housing. Along with the entire World.

          Have a look at your money market funds–it’s affected–everything is. No one is immune from this downturn.

        2. DrakoneSmith

          Thank goodness Henry Paulson wasn’t saddled with any conflict of interest issues.

          1. tlc8386

            Don’t think you can really compare the two–quite a big difference in net worth and where it came from–

          2. DrakoneSmith

            That is indeed my point. If I get to choose between a Treasury Secretary that has an underwater house versus one that formely lead GS, it would be an easy pick.

      2. winstongator

        He made 400k while at the Fed. He was probably in the 30-40% mortgage payment to gross income range, which is stretching it.

    2. HydroCabron

      I don’t know how strict the conflict-of-interest rules are on cabinet members. If Geithner does not hold equities, fixed-income securities, or futures contracts directly, then he certainly has many friends who do, and are positioned to land him lucrative work when he leaves the cabinet.

      However his assets are held – say, in a blind trust – and whatever the allocation, even if it’s in 1 kg gold bars, he probably knows how his wealth is invested.

      His equity and fixed-income investments probably dwarf his home’s value. If he is ethically susceptible, there are much stronger motivations than his house.

      1. caloshua

        100% agreed. The regular bloggers are getting seriously paranoid. Read at your own risk.

    3. david

      Yes, though his interests as a government employee will always remain contrary to those of private taxpayers. He is a NET tax consumer not a tax payer.

      1. buster

        This is a silly – I’m sure he can make FAR more money in private industry than he can as Treasury Secretary. So factor in his “foregone” compensation that he could make in private industry and he is, in fact, in an effective tax bracket well over 90%

        1. AZDavidPhx

          I’m sure he can make FAR more money in private industry than he can as Treasury Secretary

          Why did he borrow over a million dollars for his house if he is making all this money in private industry?

          Fortunately for Timothy, I’m sure he will once he is done with his public service. There will be plenty of books to write and speeches to give the rich at the various Yacht Clubs throughout America. He’ll bring in plenty of cash to pay off his mortgage losses.

          1. tlc8386

            Take a look at who has conflict of interest here Hank Paulson was former head of Goldman Sachs–along with his net worth upwards of 700 million–just a fyi.

    4. Blueberry Pie

      Last night my wife asked me about this (specifically about Jon & Kate Plus 8), and I wasn’t sure of the answer. Do “rich” people who are buying $1 million + houses typically finance the purchase or do they pay 100% cash? And was this the same before and after the bubble?

      1. DML

        I’m sure it was an easy financial decision to make in the days of the bull market. If investing your million is going to net you more money than your real estate investment, why not borrow the money for the mortgage at a low interest rate?

        At least that is how I play it out when I dream of winning the lottery!

  4. tlc8386

    The risk of owning now is very high just thinking of some of the issues.

    1. must move-transfer
    2. loss of job
    3. surrounding foreclosures/reo’s
    4. can’t lower price
    5. need repairs
    6. large heloc/secondary

    When IR says we may not see price appreciation till 2013 till 2016 I do believe him even though I wish it were not so. To buy a house now and risk being stuck in it can be so much pain for the homeowner. I felt that pain and it was only a few months when I sold my last home.

    And why because the RE agent did nothing to help me sell my home. I printed out sheets of info telling the prospective buyers what in the last 8 years I have improved to the home. Every detail went into these fact sheets that I handed out. New water heater, new garage door opener, French drains, retaining walls, new 12 year exterior house paint, painting the garage floor–the list goes on.

    What I did was sell the house myself and I have yet to see any home listed this way. For the homeowner not only do you have to give information on the home in detail but receipts as well–warranty info was provided as well. When you bought my home you knew what you were getting.

    When I view homes in the OC they never tell you details but expect you to guess and hope the home was maintained. Those days should be gone!!!

    Buyers are in charge now and we should demand more!

    1. tacoshark

      So what are you going to do? Wait unti 2016 to buy a house at the “bottom” and be stuck renting for the next 7 years while throwing away $100k’s of dollars away. Or will you find a reasonable priced house in the near future and have it half-way paid off in the next 7 years?

      My point is, you are either never stuck or always stuck. It all depends on how you look at the glass.

      1. tlc8386

        Everything depends what you do with that cash if you make more money in another investment vehicle that pays you more than that is what you do.

  5. newbie2008

    AZDavidPhx,
    Who says TG and wife must pay for the loss on the house? You may be living in a dream world where the powerful pay their debts.

    Lots of them get the appreciation on the house they didn’t own and/or someone else covered their loss on the house or property that they did own.

    Follow the money on who won and who lost, pre- and post- election.

    IR, With all the delays with FC mortoriums, modification, lazy banks and creatative book, when will the REO be actually on the market in Irvine and other locations closer to the job centers?

    How much agricultural land or forest area (50 plus Acres) is in the overextended in a sea of debt?

  6. ozymandias

    someone is going to have to explain to me why the inventory is down, down, down on the chart IR posts here. i’m not sure I understand how price and inventory are working at this time.

    1. IrvineRenter

      The actual for-sale inventory is very low, and prices are holding steady or actually rising in some areas because of it. The shadow inventory of properties held off the market or entering the foreclosure process is very large, so future inventories suggest prices will decline moving forward, probably not until fall and winter.

  7. San Diego Homes

    Todays San Diego Union Tribune has a report that says San Diego home prices are more than 21% UNDERvalued. The financial analysis company Global Insight shows that the first-quarter 2009 median price of $327,300 is 21.2 percent below the “normal” value which should be $415,300 based upon historic trends for affordability, household income, and appreciation. And if that sounds remarkable, then consider that San Diego is ranked as only the 61st most undervalued metropolitan area in the US. The most undervalued is Vero Beach, which is 42.5% below historical norms.
    If you’re thinking, “what hacks”, consider that this company has been consistently rated as one of the most accurate forecasting companies in the world.
    The forecast calls for a return to normal prices.
    This analysis “makes sense” says Norm Miller, housing professor at the University of San Diego. Professor Miller says to use caution for all economic models, but “This is an excellent indicator.” He confirms that the house values in San Diego have overshot to the downside. “They will head up.”

    1. Geotpf

      Your link goes nowhere and does nothing.

      In any case, this report’s “historic trends” probably only go back a decade, instead of a century.

      1. San Diego Homes

        I put the link and href tags in there correctly… It must have gotten blocked by the blog spam filter. It will probably get put up by the moderator later. Or you can Google “Global Insight forecast”

    2. lowrydr310

      Do their ‘nominal value’ estimates take into consideration the state of the economy?

      This is just a guess, but those nominal values are probably correct if you assume an economy that is growing every year; in that case employment is high and incomes rise year over year.

      Things are a bit different now; unemployment is rising and incomes are decreasing. It can’t go on forever like this, but exactly when things turn around is anyone’s guess at this point.

    3. IrvineRenter

      “Todays San Diego Union Tribune has a report that says San Diego home prices are more than 21% UNDERvalued.”

      Whenever a forecaster tells you an asset is undervalued, they are either relying on a bad economic model, or they are shills for a group who wants to see values being higher.

      “He confirms that the house values in San Diego have overshot to the downside. “They will head up.””

      The first statement is debatable, and the second statement is true if given enough time. It implies a great deal more urgency than is really there. The combined effect of these two half-truths is to create the fear of missing the deal or being priced out forever. It is a typical realtor scare tactic.

      Did the NAR pay for this article?

      1. AZDavidPhx

        “Todays San Diego Union Tribune has a report that says San Diego home prices are more than 21% UNDERvalued.”

        Sounds like they are using the same logic that the banks are using to value their toxic assets at a King’s ransom.

    4. alan

      Once again, read “The Black Swan”, there is a whole chapter about how horrible economists are at forecasting the future and the author goes on to say that there are many people who want economics moved out of the Science Dept. and over to Humanities. Economists are very good at explaining past events, they are horrible at predicting the future, worse than weathermen. Our media gives way too much time to these hacks.

    5. USCTrojanCPA

      What is the basis of their valuation? Prices from 2000-2008? If so, that’s a joke. I would bet that most SD are at least 10-20% away from rental parity. Call me when owning a home in SD is cheaper than renting it. kthankxbye

      1. ignorantoutsider.

        My home is definately more than 20% undervalued. My only problem is that the willing buyers are undervisible. [ These shills are probably friends of the moron who complained that the market was being distorted by the foreclosures which were not really “willing sellers”.]

    6. thrifty

      The S.D. Union Tribune article states that the records on which the stated “normalized” vaiues are based started in 1985 – and that San Diego has never had a down year since 1985. Guess it didn’t participate in the r.e. price drop starting in 1990 and bottoming in 1995.

  8. Blueberry Pie

    Someone paid that much for a 2 bedroom 2 bath condo and thought it was rational.

    I really think the lenders aren’t getting enough blame. At least a “buyer” can claim that they don’t know anything about real estate, and just wanted to buy a house. The lender is supposed to be in the industry and understand economics. The fact that somebody would write a loan for way more than a property is really worth is crazy.

    Borrower and lender are both idiots for this purchase.

    1. AZDavidPhx

      It’s because the mortage hustlers masked the purchase price by bamboozling the schmuck-buyer with an obfuscated monthly payment price using financial and economic voodoo.

      $712,500 sounds like a lot of money, but when it can be broken down into 60 EASY PAYMENTS OF $3000.00 to $4000.00&*@^%#&FORAWHILE;&@&%%@^@FOLLOWED&^%BY*^@^%@%^300^@%$@BONE*@&^@%#CRUSHING*^@%KILL*&%@YOURSELF**TODAY$@%$PAYMENTS&*@*^@%BUT!@#DONT**&%@WORRY***&@^%#BE&&^@%@&HAPPY;&*@&@&# – it doesn’t seem like all that much unless you bother trying to decipher all the hidden mumbo jumbo.

      They want monthly payment buyers; people who look at the bottom line and hesitate are just a big waste of time to them.

      Try walking into a car dealership looking to pay cash and you’ll find out real quick how they lose interest in you when they realize they won’t be able to make you dance like a silly debtmonkey for them.

      1. Dean

        AZ — You ask about paying cash for a new car. I actually just did that. A very interesting, and succinct, experience. As soon as they saw I was not interested in dealer add-ons or financing we got down to the meat of the transaction:

        How much they wanted vs. how much I’d pay. Check, please.

        I was out of there in about 55 minutes – on my terms.

        God, that felt great.

        1. AZDavidPhx

          At the dealerships that I went to about 6-7 months ago, it was business as usual:

          “What can I do to get you to buy today?”

          “You don’t want to spend that much? Just finance the rest – we’ve got low rates”

          “I can’t go asking my boss to sell X for Y unless I know you are serious. Why don’t you give me a deposit so I can go fight for you.”

          Maybe they are more desperate now.

          1. OC Progressive

            The last couple vehicles we bought, we never walked into a showroom. Do the research, pick the color, find out the dealer’s price, and send emails to the fleet/internet departments.

            The last vehicle we even priced out the extended warranty and offered out best price on that, knowing we could buy the factory warranty on-line from another dealer.

            The showroom almost is the place where the chump sellers and chump buyers meet.

            There seemed to be a lot more cars moving through the side of the dealership where the internet buyers came in, picked up their cars, handed over their checks, and finished a little paper work.

          2. tacoshark

            “I can’t go asking my boss to sell X for Y unless I know you are serious. Why don’t you give me a deposit so I can go fight for you.”

            Lol. For some reason this cracked me up.

  9. San Diego Homes

    Do you have statistics to back up your assertions? Isn’t that what you require?

    1. ignorantoutsider.

      Why do I feel as if I just fell out of time warp and its mid 2006? Is GWB ready for the midterms??

    2. Dan in FL

      Statistics…ok.

      Year to date, in San Diego County there have been 31,754 Notice of Trustee Sales recorded (took less than 10 mins to find that data.) Pray tell, how many sales of properties appear for the same time on your MLS for San Diego County?

      Supply and demand trumps historic pricing data. Unless you think that demand is actually greater than that supply.

      1. San Diego Homes

        Since January 1 2009 there have been 24,351 listings on the San Diego MLS. Of those, 12,983 are Sold or Pending escrow. There are 8,089 Active listings that have been listed this year, or 10,344 total Active listings, so 2,255 of the Active listings must have been listed before January 1, 2009. From this I figure there have been about 4,000 Expired, Cancelled, Withdrawn, or Rented rather than sold this year. The 10,344 Active listings is down from around 14,000 at the beginning of the year. As I recall, the number of active listings peaked at around 20,000 when no one was buying anything in 2007. These numbers are not guaranteed, but it’s the best I can do.
        I don’t think there is a way to get a number for the current demand, except judging by the lines of prospective buyers at the front door of just about every house that comes on the market in San Diego, plus the multiple offers and backup offers on the distress sales. Most non-distress sales are selling almost as quickly as the REOs. There appear to be more than enough willing buyers at these reduced price levels. If they release the REO properties gradually there should be plenty of demand to absorb the supply. If they sit on them and then dump them all at once they are fools… and that’s certainly not out of the question at this point. Rising interest rates are obviously another potential problem.
        Unfortunately the Global Insight forecast notes that Orange County is only 10.9 percent below its historic norm, and LA County only 6.4 percent. You’ll likely be feeling the pain up there for longer than we will in San Diego. We got a head start down here where the air is clean and the surf is up in “America’s Finest City.” May God continue to bless all of you.

  10. Dan in FL

    SD, you might want to consider arguing for your statistics, instead of just stating the numbers, then trying to dismiss them with anecdotes and hyperbole.

    Here’s what your numbers say to me.

    12,983 homes sold in SD County this year vs.
    8,089 active listings so far this year vs.
    31,754 Notice of Trustee sales so far this year.

    Let’s assume that all 8k of your current listings are REOs, and all of those 8k listings were from NOS filed so far this year. This would be a best case scenario from your point of view, as it assumes no other pesky organic sales to get in the way. Using these assumptions, then we have approximately 23k of foreclosures waiting to come onto the market (31k NOS – 8k listings so far this year). That’s approximately 9 months worth of inventory at your current sale rate of 12.9k sales per 5 months. So in our napkin-math world, there’s at least 9 months worth of inventory in REOs alone sitting on the sidelines in SD.

    Add that 9 months worth of shadow inventory to the already existing 2.5 months worth of listings, and you close to a years worth of inventory. And that’s not including a lot of other bad news. Factor in the organic shadow inventory (the private homeowners who are “waiting for the market to rebound” before they sell). Then factor in the NODs that have not been issued a NOS.

    So, based on those numbers, how is this a good time for people to buy a home in SD?

    1. Dan in FL

      Right on time…Mr Mortgage has an assessment of SD housing he just posted in his new post “Beware Real Estate False Bottoms”

      A couple of little tidbits for you…

      “But sales are nowhere near robust in a historical context especially when considering that median house prices are down 44% from the peak and rates are at historic lows. If this market was truly on the mend, sales would be much higher especially now, during the peak season. Sales actually dropped 10% from April to May.”

      “But even with foreclosure-related sales running at only 15%-20% of total sales in this market, they will still influence prices. And the shift in the value mix of properties entering the REO resale pool to higher priced properties will influence median and average house prices going forward.”

  11. San Diego Homes

    Dan in FL – As you sit and sweat in the humid swampland of that sophisticated southern state, I’m sure it is difficult for you to understand what’s going on in California. First, if you read my post, I never said that this is a “good time” for people to buy… but since you mention it, you may be right. I also didn’t attempt to analyze those numbers because it would be useless. I was responding to your ‘pray tell’ request for the number of listings vs the number of notices of default. The number of active listings don’t reflect is the actual level of demand. There are 8,000+listings right now, but that number would be lower if there were fewer short sales (most with multiple backup offers) that are still showing as active on the MLS. Also, a good number of sellers who still have equity in their homes are holding out for higher prices, and if they lowered their prices the properties would sell right away. So it’s impossible to tell from the active inventory how much new foreclosure inventory we could absorb. The foreclosures come on low and sell quickly. There’s a good chance that all 31,000 of the new foreclosure listings that you’re so smug about would sell within a few months… who knows, that’s only hypothetical anecdote and hyperbole.
    Hang in there Dan… there are a lot of baby boomers just itching to retire in your fine state.

    1. grabasnorkel

      “Dan in FL – As you sit and sweat in the humid swampland” and blah blah blah

      LOL – Just can’t keep a good dirtbag under the rock, can you?

      Hey SD don’t tell your trailer trash mom and step sister you’re stinking up the joint at the IHB. LOL

      1. San Diego Homes

        Did it take you a long time to come up with that witty retort? You’ve left out several family members. Nothing to say about my pimp father or bastard children? Thanks for coming out from under your rock long enough to make your very small presence known. I’ve never found such a sorry group of malcontent whiners in my life. I think it’s hilarious entertainment. Back to work…

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