Open Thread 12-13-2008

There is a new, non-commercial site I want to recommend everyone go check out: Loanzen.com. From the website, “Welcome to Loanzen — the community-driven mortgage information site (100% anonymous and free.) I recently applied for a loan and the broker attempted to tack on all sorts of absurd fees. I had no idea what was fair. So, I created Loanzen: A place where you can share the actual rates and fees you’re getting from lenders. By sharing your deal, you help the community and also get valuable comments back on your individual deal.”

It is exactly what it says. People anonymously submit the terms of loans they have been offered, and other people comment on whether or not it is a good deal. I think it is a fantastic way for people to help each other out. In particular, it should help people from being screwed by unscrupulous brokers pushing them into a bad loan just to make a few extra bucks. The commenters often know where the best deals can be found, and they can point the borrower to a better deal somewhere else. I think this site is a great idea, and I hope it catches on.

Loanzen.com

{book}

Have you noticed there are a large number of homes for sale in Shady Canyon? Why is that?

Of all the new neighborhoods in Irvine, I thought this one would have the least selling pressure, not because it isn’t ridiculously overpriced, but because typically in the over $2,000,000 price range, the buyers really are rich and have the reserves to weather a storm.

In a normal real estate market, new neighborhoods see almost no resale activity for at least 3 years because people buy new in anticipation of living there for many years. There are always people that need to move for unexpected reasons, but for the most part, resale activity should be very low in new neighborhoods. The fact that all of Irvine’s relatively new neighborhoods are showing high turnover speaks to a couple truths:

  1. The owners are all overextended and cannot truly afford their properties.

  2. Many bought with the intention of flipping and never intended to live there long term.

I suppose no amount of buyer/flipper/speculator stupidity during the bubble should really surprise me, but flipping multi-million dollar mansions? That is stupid. First, wouldn’t a very rich individual want to design and decorate their own place? Why would they pay a flipper a premium for something they will probably redo? Second, how many people capable of buying these homes are out there? Even in the gross stupidity of easy credit, there were not many people getting $10,000,000 loans to buy houses, and the number of people with that kind of cash is very limited. Third, how much carry cost does the flipper endure on a property like this? Can you imagine making the debt service payments on a $10,000,000 loan waiting to sell the property?

Anyway, for whatever reason, many properties are for sale in Shady Canyon, and in all likelihood, prices are going to drop there significantly. It is just a matter of time.

26 Grey Owl Inside

Beds: 5
Baths: 9
Sq. Ft.: 13,500
$/Sq. Ft.: $1,407
Lot Size: 1.73

Acres
Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Farm House
Year Built: 2008
Stories: 3+
View: Canyon, Hills
Area: Turtle Rock
County: Orange
MLS#: U8004134
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 88 days

Located within the prestigious guard gated community of Shady Canyon,
this spectacular sprawling five bedroom custom estate captures the
serene rolling hillside views of Shady Canyon. The 13,500 sq. ft.
residence features exquisite high-end finishes and reclaimed products
throughout. From the motor court entrance with reclaimed French pavers
to the subterranean wine cellar connecting the residence to the pool
house and home theater, no expense has been spared in this truly
breathtaking estate. The gourmet kitchen provides an ideal central
location for family to gather and offers Carrara marble counters, a
walk-in refrigerator, gourmet appliances, a service kitchen & large
center island with a pop-up television. A beautiful pool, pool house
and home theater provide hours of entertainment and includes an outdoor
kitchen, with barbecue, pizza oven, dishwasher & built-in heaters.
The surrounding vineyard provides two barrels of wine at harvest.

44 thoughts on “Open Thread 12-13-2008”

  1. asianinvasian

    It’s only a matter of time. How many years have you been saying that now? A broken watch is right twice a day.

    1. george8

      This mansion is overpriced at $8 million let alone $18 million in today’s market.

      Let it sit and rot.

    2. IrvineRenter

      “A broken watch is right twice a day.”

      If I were wrong, you would not be coming here to vent your anger about overpaying for your house and watching its value consistently decline.

    3. Barren_Irvine

      I would rather say its only a matter of one or two year that everything resets itself. I hope that gives you a good idea where things are right now and where they are heading.

    1. SnowKat

      Is there ‘something’ floating in that toilet?! :bug:

      Between the floater in the toilet & the boarded up windows, I feel this property is worth every penny. HAHAHAHAHA

  3. Zulu

    Actually, if it weren’t for the large number spec homes that were built prior to the housing bust, I don’t think Shady would be different than any other neighborhood.

    The rich do tend to move around a bit more than others – maybe it is because they can, or maybe it is because they are always a bit dissatisfied with the status quo (which is usually part of the reason they are rich in the first place).

    Houses that were listed in the $7 million range have now dropped into the low and mid-$5’s. There is one a new 7,000 sf Santa Barbara just started on Boulder View which is now at $4.995m. Considering the size of the home and location, especially when you consider the alternatives in dense-pack neighborhoods like Turtle Ridge or Newport Coast at around the same price, it doesn’t seem like Shady is overpriced.

    However, with regard to the home you featured – yes $18.5 million dollars is ridiculous. It was probably built for less than half that, and the owner is clearly out of touch.

    1. IrvineRenter

      It is hard to tell which elements you added, and which ones were part of the original photo. Well done.

  6. AZDavidPhx

    I think that this is my favorite room so far of any property you have ever profiled. Hands down hilarious to think of someone actually living in a Gulag like this.

    Fantastic find. Thanks for the laughs.

    1. 26w100k+

      You are going to be shocked, but I agree. Finally, THIS is when you can say “they couldn’t pay me to live in this place”, because I’ve never seen something so ugly!

      There are houses on redfin in Shady that *look* they could at least be worth 5-6 million dollars (though it could be the cool photography and the lighting), but this thing looks like trash.

  7. alan

    If I’m reading redfin right, these flippers paid $2.8 mil for the property in 03 and spent another $3 mil building this palace on it for a total investment of $6 mil.

    If they get their asking price, it would be a profit of $13 mil.

    That would be a nice payday!

    I think “Dream On” would have been a better song choice for this one.

    1. Barren_Irvine

      I wonder how much insurance the owner has to pay for such a property? By the look of the area it looks to be on a very fire prone area. Oh well, glad I am not that rich!!!

  8. Zulu

    Too funny! I particularly like the “city lights view” of the Emerald City. Is that Irvine? Who is the real estate agent behind the curtain?

  9. periclimenes

    Can somebody explain to me why this would be a bad idea (or maybe it wouldn’t be):

    Instead of readjusting the principal of mortgages to help people who paid to much for their houses, why don’t banks look at what monthly payment the owners can actually make and then re-amortize the loan over whatever period it would take to make the payments the right size. For example, if someone signed on to pay $700,000 for a condo, but can only afford to pay $1500 a month for a mortgage, it might turn their 30 year loan into an 80 year loan. Nobody gets kicked out of their house, and people are held accountable to what they agreed to pay.

    Am I missing something?

    2. IrvineRenter

      The reason this will not work is because people cannot even afford the interest-only payment on the property. Many who are defaulting now cannot even afford the negative amortization payment they are making on their Option ARMs.

    3. freedomCM

      $700k @ 5% interest is $35k/yr of interest.

      that’s almost $3k/month.

      if they can only afford $1500/month, the math she doesn’t work captain!

      it only works at a teaser interest rate of say 2.5% for an IO loan, no amortization.

    4. Eeek

      in your example, the bank would need to change the interest rate to something 2.57% or less for the loan to EVER be paid off. At 2.57% interest rate (by my unchecked calculations) the loan pays off in just under 292 years. Seems a bit long for the bank to have to wait.

      Also, the 1500 has to go to P&I and they’ll have to pay anything else on top of that. Mello Roos, if any, taxes, insurance, maintenance (and a heck of a lot of it for 292 years of wear and tear) and all the other little details and expenses that make owning homes such a delight.

      If the bank sets interest to 2.5%, of course, it gets paid off much sooner (144 years or so, I think).

      For an 80 year payout, the interest rate is about 2.08%

      Even if the bank changes it to 1% interest the payoff still takes almost 50 years.

      Finally, if the bank is willing to really bite the bullet, the loan pays off at 0% interest in just under 39 years.

    5. No_Such_Reality

      If the squatter can only afford $1500, why would we as a society even want to help them stay in a $700,000 condo?

      1. Mikee

        That’s what they do over in Europe. They give out 50 or 80 year loans at a low interest rate.
        Of course here, they buy a home and pass it on to the next generation. They also don’t allow houses to be built unless the population really grows.
        In the area I’m in, I was wondering how people afford the housing. I pay 2,400 for a 4/2.5 with 2,700 SF. It would sell for 800K at least. I was trying to the math, and then someone told me about the mortgage terms here.
        It’s all relative I guess.

  10. Chris

    $18 million dollar house profile is not what an average person visiting your site would care about, IR.

    We’re not all Hannah Montanas, ya know 🙂

    So suffice to say that my previous comment yesterday is starting to take hold. Ipoplay must be gleeful right now….

    Oh well 🙁

      1. Equitymind

        Close, his is on Golden Eagle, down the hill and on the golf course and on a two lot site. This is also a two lot site and a virtual compound and extremely private but belongs to a former Dodger.

  13. tonyE

    I wonder who this home is being marketed to anyhow.

    IMHO, the owner of an $18M, 15K sq foot house won’t give much of a rat’s ass about visiting the kitchen ’cause he’d better have a cook and some help.

    OTOH, the underground, err… dungeon, would be very useful to whip the chef when the souffle is not puffy enough, or when the tenants in Newport Beach fall in arrears and need some re-education.

    Seriously, a lot of these homes represent a “nouveau rich” attitude. They still reflect a lower upper/high middle class lifestyle and hence are difficult to sell. After all, for a house this large, I don’t really want to see the kitchen, the laundry room nor the “operations” parts of the house. I just want my office, my toys and the ability to cook and BBQ if I feel like it.

    Otherwise, I would want an industrial quality kitchen and food storage so my chef can prepare “tournados de beauf au cognac et champignons” whenever I feel like it.

    Also, I don’t see a proper library/smoking room… nouveau rich indeed.

  15. cosmo kramer

    Is there much shade in shady canyon? LOoks kinda bleak; the deal on the other hand certainly conforms to the definition.

    Is that Amish recycled barn siding on the interior? Nice touch.

  16. Priced_Out_IT_Guy

    I’m not sure why anyone would blow this much cash in Shady. I’d rather get an oceanfront home on the coast or a spectacular view in a private community in Laguna or Newport. More temperate weather and your changes of getting on MTV are much much higher.

  19. .

    I’m curious about the “the surrounding vineyard provides two barrels of wine at harvest”. Where can I sample some of this wine? Do you think they will offer weekend wine-tasting events?

    I never knew that Irvine was a prime grape growing region. The Irvine Company really missed out on this. They could have turned the hills of Shady Canyon into the next Napa.

    1. tlc8386

      The Irvine Company would rather turn all of Irvine into apartments–one big apt. complex–disgusting–

      I have never seen more apts. in one city except NY. Maybe they thought they could be NY City—LOL

      And now what will Irvine sell, produce–JOBS??

      Anything would have been nicer than apt. complexes

  20. John-John

    The Loanzen site looks kind of cool. I see how this could be super helpful if more people used it.

    The Shady house is a joke. Never, ever, will it see anything close to that LP. Then again in the future bubble of 2067 maybe.

Comments are closed.