Hello there. I’m a lurker. I lurk. Love the site and visit daily. It’s about the only thing that gives me hope that my wife and I may some day be able to buy a house for its actual value.
Just this week our landlord (failed flipper) re-offered to sell the beautiful old town Orange home we rent for north of $500 a square foot. After I informed her that I didn’t think she was capable of offering me a price I would be willing to consider, she informed me she will be raising the rent.
Oh joy. Keep up the good work.
Rocker
I’m renting from a floplord too, he bought at the peak but put a big down payment, probably he has high hopes for prices come back in 2H08, Ha!, he has offered me the property several times in the past, I tell him, I like the area, schools, etc. but I say some valid excuses: I have a housewife, 2 incomes are needed in OC, don’t tell him if I have savings or not, etc. the rule that I follow is: don’t disclose anything that could give him an anxiety attack.
Soapboxpolitico
Kevmo – Welcome to the blog!
If I may offer some words of advice … calmly explain to the dear floplord that she is well within her rights to raise the rent but a quick review of comparable rents would seem to dictate that she’d have a tough time re-renting the home upon your vacancy at the new rate.
If you’re willing to do a little work and rent elsewhere, I would bet dollars to donuts she reconsiders the rent increase. After all, the same rent from you is better than no rent coming in. She’s willing to bet you’re tied to the home and she still thinks she’s got leverage on you when in fact, she really doesn’t have much leverage at all. Plenty of places to rent these days … she’s still drinking the cool aid. Just my two cents.
ElricSeven
Our landlady is wanting to sell the place to us too. Too bad there’s a SFH (compared to our condo) with the same square footage listed down the street at $150K less than what she paid. I’ll probably make an offer, but she’s not going to like the number.
ShutterBug
Hi Kevin:
Great to see you here. Tell A I said ‘Hi’.
Andi
NoWow!way
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Sam
I am a lurker and dare I say- homeowner in Ladera Ranch. We are probably one of the few in our neighborhood who bought within our means (30yr fixed, 5.25%) in 2003. We actually have always lived below our means . . .oh what freedom! We were thinking about moving into larger quarters in 2006 and that is when I started to lurk at the irvinehousingblog and the housingbubbleblog every day. So you guys saved us from a really bad decision. The home we were going to buy has lost $300,000 in value already. I’d rather give that money to charity!
Keep blogging, I am addicted to this site.
colleeeen
hey, i lurk. don’t usually have much to contribute to the discussions.
bought a townhouse in Lake Forest back in ’02, then had a family and couldn’t afford an actual house (since everything doubled in price by 2005), then watched our neighbors NOT sell their places for many many long months, then decided to just rent out our place (breaking even, no profit) so that we could at least rent an actual house with a yard & garage and all that good stuff. so now we’re waiting to be able to afford a house in Lake Forest (where we work) and hoping the economy doesn’t turn into total [feces].
Ben
I live in Seattle, but like to keep track of real estate in CA and WA. The detailed investigative work on various properties, deep market analysis, postings, are very insightful and thought provoking. There’s also a Seattle real estate blog that I monitor, http://seattlebubble.com/blog/
I would be keen to understand some of the longer demographic implications when most of the baby boom generation retire and what they will do with their real estate portfolio.
Zardeenah
I’m a mostly lurker. Occasionally, I just have to comment, though…Mostly to defend denser living, since I love living in San Francisco and walking everywhere.
I finished remodeling my Seattle area home in early 2005, and got more and more nervous about the housing bubble. I didn’t want to lose money on the remodel, and knew there was a steep correction on the way. We sold at the peak of the year in 2005, and moved to a beautiful rental at half our mortgage payment (with a much easier yard to take care of and nearly no maintenance). I missed the peak of the bubble by a year, but the joys of renting made up for it.
Now we’ve moved to SF, and have high rent, but nothing compared to what the cost to buy our place would be. According to Zillow, my landlord paid 1.9 million for our 2 unit building. Yikes! My rent is nothing compared to what a mortgage payment on that would be!
I love reading IHB and watching the correction happen. There’s so much good information that I can’t get on my own — past sales, current amount owed, etc…And there is a certain element of enjoyment in seeing the housing bubble theories proved true after so many people told me there was no bubble. I also love all the commenters here. Intelligent, well thought out comments without personal attacks or wild conspiracy theories are quite refreshing.
Nice to meet everybody!
Kirk
The whole housing “bubble” is a conspiracy by the democrat party to make President Bush look bad. It’s no coincidence that the market started going flat when the democrats took the majority in Congress in 2006.
Zardeenah
Okay, an occasional conspiracy theory is fun.
(refrains from political comment here. Blog…is…about….housing!)
Kirk
Conspiracy theories may be “fun” in movies, but conspiracy facts hurt everyoneā¦ except the elitists. You cannot pretend that government actions occur in a vacuum and have no effect on markets nor can you pretend that those being foreclosed on didn’t incur a much deserved wrath for their lack of prayer.
ElricSeven
Right, like conspiracies that we never landed on the moon, the government created AIDS and that vaccines cause autism have done so much good. Our continued worship of feelings over facts in the U.S. is going to be our downfall.
LoneStarKirk
“Our continued worship of feelings over facts in the U.S. is going to be our downfall.”
The downfall of America will be anti-Christian comments like this. I find it sickening that Christians are the most persecuted majority in this country ā a country that was founded on the principle that we are a nation under God. You people will have to take Christmas from our cold dead hands. We’re not giving it up without a fight.
Minerva Figueroa
You need professional help or English classes. Last time I checked this blog is about Real Estate, and Christmas or the holiday season is still legal.
:smirk:
Minerva Figueroa
I agree with your assertions.In the meantime you and I will lurk and wait for a good deal, while they watch tv and believe drink the kool aid.
Kirk
I already have the best professional help that one can have: God. Your minimization of His role in your life, including your real estate investments, will be your doom. I angered Him by not kicking my daughter out of the house earlier and He gave my home back to the bank. We all make mistakes and I have learned from mine.
Minerva Figueroa
Like I said……….. :smirk:
Kirk
I see what you are getting at. Well, before you get all self righteous, know that after I left my daughter on the side of I37 I was able to secure a pay option loan for a slightly bigger house than the one that was taken. The neg-am payments are actually less than my previous interest-only loan. I’m not stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.
Ed Dunkle
Lurker, and bitter renter here.
Also, another persecuted Christian. ( If only we could get a Christian in the White House!)
I’m interested in markets in general, and the housing collapse is fascinating to watch. If it continues I might actually be able to afford a condo in Barstow.
quail_hill_renter
Hi Irvine renter -Thanks for recognizing us lurkers. Love the site.
Ed from Irvine
Big fan of the site. Long-time resident of Irvine, both as a renter and an owner. Never drank the Kool-Aide. Wouldn’t touch my equity EVER! Cannot believe people used their equity as an ATM.
Keep up the great work!
QuailHillRenter
Hi, I have been lurking for over a year. Have posted comments a few times, but due to my schedule, can’t seem to keep up with comments. But I still try to make it a point to read the blog every day.
IR’s blog has saved us from taking the plunge twice, and can’t thank him enough for that! Am waiting to see how things shape up at the end of the summer, although it could be next year when we are back in the housing market.
Eagerly looking forward to IR’s Housing Bubble book.
Cheers! š
IrvineRenter
Thank you all for posting. I hope some more post over the weekend.
Eric in SF
I’m one of them lurkers also. Rent in SF, but very interested in what happens down south. Seems like we are starting our downward spiral up here. IHB gives me a glimpse of the future.
Step up buyer
I bought in WestPark in 1995.Want to step up to a view property… Looking for a deal.
el dudelero
well hello there….been lurking for a while now. great site, great humor.
DC in Woodbridge
Long time reader. Fantastic blog, much thanks to the contributors.
Now that RE price decline is established, and also the huge losses to the source of this mortgage money, leading to the government trying to paper over the current and yet-to-come losses at the source end, I am curious about the potential consequences to regular folks due this ongoing attempt to paper over these huge losses. For example, would the increase in food and fuel-derived costs squeeze the household budget, resulting in fewer qualified buyers? As Alt-A and prime losses kick in, would CA have trouble kicking the revenue shortfall can down the road and be forced to increase taxes? Would the dollar continue downward, leading to increased import prices? More squeeze on buyers?
rahrahgirl
Way to bring all the lurkers out into the light.
I’m a homeowner that bought in (gasp) 2004. We moved here as first-time (read: naive) homeowners from Boston. By comparison, OC prices seemed almost reasonable. We thought we were making out like bandits because our mortgage here was less than our rent out there.
Now the house next door is vacant, recently purchased by a flipper looking to make a quick buck. No such luck. We can easily make our mortgaged, but would be at break-even or loss should we suddenly have to sell.
Like another post by a lurker, we considered attempting to “move up” in 2006, but I stumbled on this website and put the breaks on that move. Thank you IrvineHousingBlog!!
dooker7
Hi Irvine Renter et al! I’ve been lurking for a few months. Good work! I’ve learned many things here, and feel that I am now equipped to make sound decisions, if and when my family moves again.
LC
You know that Irvine Renter has his finger on the pulse of the housing bubble — the bursting forehead vein, I should say!
Dave in FL
I’ve been lurking for several months since I thought my family might move to Irvine, though now it looks like Carlsbad. IHB is the best RE blog I have found.
We’re moving from Lee County, FL, which appears to be ahead of the curve and into the capitulation phase IR is anticipating. Some listings here state “Not a short sale” to stand out from the crowd.
Another lurker here. My husband, 1 year old, and I recently moved to Orange County from Texas. We’re renting a house right now and hoping home prices keep dropping so that we can afford to buy some day. For now we’ll keep saving for our down payment.
NewToTheArea
CW,
Welcome! I’m a fellow Texan who just moved to Irvine in February. How crazy are rent and home prices out here for these little stucco boxes? It almost makes me miss the humidity. Almost…
CW
The prices are outrageous, but we are really, really enjoying the weather.
westpark-guy
Happy Lurker here. Just having fun with this site. My wife and I live in westpark II and we bought our house in 2000. Refinanced in 2004 but didn’t touch heloc or equity line. Now our mortgage is half the avg rental in the area. Thank you Irvine Housing blog for keeping us sane and happy.
numbacrunch
I’ve been lurking here like an estranged boyfriend at 2am in a trailer park.
Love the site, even though I know nothing about SoCal I feel plugged into the market because of this. Great info, and fun to read.
Jim
I haven’t lived in OC for over 10 years but I like to know what’s going on there. I read a few other housing/financial blogs also but this is the most hair-raising one.
OC is a great place, many people will pay a premium to live there, and there are a certain number of high income people, *but*, incomes have to support prices. I saw some houses with no lots in eastside Costa Mesa being advertised at over one million and there is just no way that is worth it.
I feel sorry for the people who bought responsibly at the peak and have lost a lot of money. The financial and political irresponsibility of our leadership is terrible.
The Hawk
Irvine Renter, thanks for being a sane voice during this crazy bubble. I’ve followed you from the start, and I appreciate all of the hard work and time that you and your staff have put in.
You are one of the best that I have seen at breaking down the complicated and confusing Mortgage and Real Estate Industry so that novices like me can understand.
I look forward to buying your book when it comes out.
Daddy Dog
Lurk diddy Lurkry Lurk.
Nice site.
My mother-in-law lives in Irvine and we lent her some money to buy a condo in 2004 š Believe it or not, I think she’s still at the break even point. A roof over her head keeps us all sane.
LA Lurker
Hello — been lurking on this and other bubble blogs since moving back here last October (Torrance.) Looks like I will be renting for the foreseable future, and for the first time I don’t think of that as a bad thing. And I thought there was a bubble back in Chicago!
Keep up the good work.
Ted
I’m a renter in LA County with some weird notion that I might buy a house some day. This blog has provided me with so much great information that there’s really no way to appropriately thank you – short of giving you a commission on the house I wind up buying. I’ve turned many of my friends who are looking for houses in earnest and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that by sending them to your site I’ve probably saved some of them from making the worst decision of their life. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Emma Anne
I have posted a few times, but I am mostly a lurker. I live in CO, but used to live in L.A. I vividly recall the housing crash of the early 90s, so I have been watching this one with amazement. What were people thinking??
I also marvel at the behavior of the mortgage writers and the bad spelling of the relitters (heh) and I’m glad to learn I am not the only who doesn’t especially like granite.
edW
Connecticut lurker – bought an REO from the bank in 1995 in the debris of the 90 crash [ just to show banks have been dumb longer than you think it got no bids at auction with a $1million reserve, sold for 330 2 years later sitting empty – probable current value +/- 650]. Proud to have told my daughter NOT to buy in Baltimore summer 2007. Think this blog is a fascinating collection of wisdom combined with well earned sour grapes for the guilty. Kind of like watching the real estate equivalent of Paris Hilton meets titanic. Keep up the good work, its addictive reading.
irv
“Kind of like watching the real estate equivalent of Paris Hilton meets titanic.”
There you go, IR, a marketing blurb for your upcoming book.
matzahball
Happy passover…longtime lurker here…I love the blog, and don’t really love Irvine, but may ultimately have to suck it up and move there some day for the schools. Wish somebody would start up a Huntington Beach housing blog site. No time for me to do it though.
SCCalendarGirl
I’m a lurker, too. I love this blog even though I don’t live or plan to live in Irvine. I’m a San Clemente homeowner since 1995 watching my equity evaporate by the month. I’d really like to sell and downsize. Just trying to figure out when it makes sense to do so.
ipoplaya
Lull between playoff games so I thought I’d check out the WOT. Nice to see so many lurks posting a how-dee…
I’m a volume poster, mostly in the forums now, which are a great place to exchange ideas, humor, etc. I urge any of you that have been lurking to check out the forum threads. There is some real great stuff there.
Always much love to IR for his time and diligence.
i live in northpark and put 30% down nine months ago. had i but been reading this fine blog at the time, i might have reconsidered.
but i like my place just fine and it fits my family quite well for the moment.
i read you every day over my morning coffee.
keep up the good work.
John Schmitt
I lurk at IHB and live in Philadelphia. We bought our condo in 1999 in all cash deal with the proceeds from the sale of our house. Happy and content with our current condition.
Philadelphia certainly not in the condition of California but lots of units and homes piling up in the for-sale-inventory here.
This blog is wonderful. Much insight, even more wit. A site that shows the true potential of the Internets.
JohnS
Philadelphia, PA
Happy Renter
Hello from yet another lurker. Came across this site almost a year ago, having just sold my OC home of many years & deciding to rent. I knew we were in for a correction but had no idea just how toxic the kool-aid had gotten.
Thanks to this site (and others like it) for the invaluable information & commentary.
David
Greetings Irvine Renter…
I’ve been lurking for the past 5-6 months, and I enjoy the information and insight you provide. I especially like the analysis pieces.
I grew up in SoCal (Downey) in the ’50’s and ’60’s. Our family used to go picnic in the country — we’d go out to O’Neill Park, somewhere around El Toro MAS. We’d drive for miles through the orange groves. Are there any orange groves left? Or have they all been turned into the houses that you blog about?
I’ve lived in Seattle for the last 25 years. Now, I gotta tell ya, we’re really SPECIAL up here. Much more so than Irvine. The local market peaked last summer, with the first YOY decline in prices occuring within the last few months. Everyone thinks it’s just a pause before the spring selling season kicks in, and prices resume their upward climb. But because I’ve been reading IHB, I know better, and I tell them what’s really going on. I expect that this time next year, we’ll look just like Irvine.
Keep up the good work!
Priced_Out_IT_Guy
I’ve lived in orange county since ’88 and I’ve yet to see an orange grove š
I did however have an orange tree in my back yard as a kid….
irvinesinglemom
Hey IR – you have a staff!
LC
Sorry, but I lose it when I look at prices in Irvine. $350k for a condo? 1999 was a crazy year for the economy, lest we forget about the internet bubble, and full size houses were $350k. How people can still cling to the bitter audacious hope that they will even obtain 1999 prices is just crazy. The self-absorbed do not bother looking at what is going on next door.
Nurgle
Hi,
I lived in Irvine for over 30 years. Bought my first home there in 1997. Sold it in 2006 and moved out of state. I have fond memories of Irvine in the 80’s but it’s really not the same place it was. Much of the charm is gone, all the orange trees, and kids playing outside, etc, etc. Woodbridge used to have community buses, hauling kids to pools and such.
Everyone told me once you leave california you can’t come back. This site it making it obvious that you can. But even then I don’t know if I would want to.
DSF
Another Lurker here; I came across this website the other day when it was referenced in a slate article. In August ’07 I moved to a suburb of Dallas from Portland Oregon. I almost feel guilty reading this blog since I indirectly profited from the California real estate bubble. Most of the equity in my old house in Oregon was a result of the market prices being fueled by Californians moving north and paying cash for houses around Portland.
I do have sympathy for people who have lost all their equity in the real estate bubble but I think people were being incredibly ignorant when they burned through their equity with HELOCs and assumed that the market value on their home was going to increase at a rate of 15 or 20% a year forever and ever. I hate to see people suffer but I really don’t want my tax dollars bailing out people and banks who made reckless financial decisions.
buckeyegouger
I’m a lurker from Columbus, Ohio; I guess I just find economic disaster interesting. I really love the quality of analysis and discussion here–it’s a gem! The info proved very useful in recently avoiding an unwise home purchase, too. Thanks and keep up the good work!
-John
Johanna
Lurker here from the DC suburbs. I learned about IHB from Slate. I love me some Schadenfreude. Keep up the good work.
dilbert dogbert
Irvine Renter,
Thanks for the blog. I post every once in a while mostly to tell your readers about my little corner of the world where the coolaid is still being drunk by the gallons.
I read you because you are describing what will happen to my neighborhood sometime in the future. I don’t know when, but the wife and I would like it to be soon so the kids could afford a house near us.
I check your site and Calculated Risk’s site everyday for the interesting writing and the very interesting commenters.
Best to you and all your commenters.
MforMass
I’m a happily renting lurker. Thanks for keeping me a happy renter.
I have a suggestion to make: A friend of mine seems to be flirting with knife catching. She recently told me that she thought it was “a great time to buy — while interest rates are still low” and that she was going to start looking for starter homes in the Pacific Northwest. I then found myself trying to summarize the entire content of this site in 60 seconds or less. (Basically I said “Go read this site. It’s educational and fun! Meanwhile, compute the monthly cost of renting vs. buying and don’t buy until the two are essentially equal.” That’s a bit simplistic, but it might serve to stave off the immediate emergency.)
Would it be possible to select two or three of the most important introductory posts from this site — e.g. the explanation of what “160 GRM” means and why it’s important — and stick them in a box in the sidebar, with a heading like “Renter’s Survival Guide”? I need a simple link where I can refer people like my poor, insane friend.
former_irvine_resident
I agree that this would be a great idea. I too have referred this blog to a number of would be knife catchers. In doing so I have sent them links to several of the great articles such as the social contract. Having a consolidated spot with the most important information for first-timers would be good.
Walter
Was reading about the next wave of RE excitement soon to be arriving in OC and noticed IHB got a mention on slate.com:
Another Seattle lurker here. Can’t help watching the Irvine train wreck in slomo. Especially interested in what happens to job growth in OC — the subprime mortgage epicenter.
Thanks for the great blog!
Mark Kinne
Fellow lurker renter here in Newport Beach. I work at a local urban design and planning firm and have learned a lot about the development and finance side of the industry both from listening to clients and from this site. Although the builders and developers are trying to stay optimistic it is increasingly clear that the house of cards so well illustrated above is crashing down with vengeful speed and relentless force. Luckily our firm has been able to get its hands on some international work to keep us going, but in spite of that we’ve lost 50% of staff in the past two months… OUCH!
Waiting In the Wings
Wow! And I thought I was the only lurker! I look forward to your blog everyday. I’ve learned so much from you, especially patience. My husband and I are happily renting and will wait until prices come down further. Thank you and keep up the great work!
svrz
Hello from Irvine’s bubble sister city, Phoenix, AZ. š
I enjoy reading this site everyday. Thank you for taking the time to create such outstanding content.
I also enjoy the ‘theme songs’ that are so appropriately selected for each post. I suggest that Sign of the Gypsy Queen be considered for future posts. š
Thankful follower from near Irvine
Hi, this is Thankful Follower from near Irvine. I read Irvine Housing Blog everyday but never join any discussion whatsoever. I feel I should say something about this excellent blog from my own personal experience.
I used to be a professional flipper from 1985 to 1991 (buying in trustee sales). Many of my failed flips (or flops if you care) at that time, I just kept as investments and rent them out (still do). As I watched the prices going through the roof in 2004, I knew it cannot last (because Iāve been through a boom/bust cycle before), so I quietly gathering up my war chest and waiting patiently to make a play. Oh, how I waited and waited with seemingly no end in sight to this craziness. In the 2nd half of 2006, I decided to re-fi a few of my investment properties with 10 years very of low fixed interest rate (safety margin) and got the cash out to add to my war chest in the banks (CDs only) for a bigger play later. And because I had waited for a long time, I eventually grew inpatient and were a bit eager to make a play soon (I guess one of the āreal estate investmentā seminar I attended in May 2007 had something to do with it), I started to apply for five more HELOC on my investment properties at the beginning of the credit crunch in July 2007 (for a even bigger play later). Since I had my war chest parked safely at the banks for quite some time now and my credit is perfect, the banks had no choice but to gave me the HELOC I wanted (or I threaten to move my war chest to some other banks) at the beginning of Sept 2007. So I was naturally very excited and actively researching deals in Orange County (because home prices are āFinally Fallingā in Orange County, so to speak, and you just canāt lose in TD sales (instant equity, so I think!). Well, I guess I finally ran out of patience at that time (thatās usually not a good thing I supposed). While I was waiting for deals (not that easy for TD sale deals to come up), by accident and just a pure stroke of luck, I ran into Housing Bubbles Blog and Irvine Housing Blog. I read everything from Irvine Housing Blog all the way back to 2006 and all those information reminded me of the lessons I learned from the last boom and bust cycle but were almost totally forgotten now. I stop my original idea of āplaysā at once after I finished all those readings (by now the war chest had grown to over 10M+ and thanks to Irvine Renter, it is still there) and became a loyal (but all so silent follower) of Irvine Housing Blog ever since.
I thank Mr. Irvine Renter for all his incredible analysis and will continue to thank him in the future.
ochomehunter
I have been following this blog for a long time and I truly believed in the bubble and stayed away from the market. I tried to save few others and some didn’t listen and got burned. Funny thing here is that even after jumping into the train wreck (folks who got in around 2004 or later) are still too optimistic and constantly speak of their speculation/denial that market will rebound later this year and they will recover all their loses in couple years…wishful thinking.
I also got several hooked up to this blog and they are true followers. I truly respect Irvinerenter for devoting his quality time and bringing clarity into this mess. I do post here occasionaly however these days I am full force on Google finance discussion boards posting on DOW Jones Industrials on how this Govt. and Fed are killing Americans.
Good job everyone. I hope we continue this blog and some day in the future we report on where we ended up buying and how much we saved by waiting on the sidelines and being bitter renters and how others did who didn’t believe in us.
LurkerDownUnder
I have been reading this blog since May 2006 and have never made a contribution; Iām a true lurker. Though I am still reluctant to join in the discussion since I have no experience in real estate, I have gained immensely in knowledge and understanding. I am looking to purchase a home in the next 12 ā 15 months. Whether I can translate what I have learned on irvinehousingblog.com into a prudent buying decision remains to be seen.
When I began reading irvinehousingblog.com, I must admit that I desired for some comeuppance and retribution. Since I did not profit from the run up in house prices, I could take satisfaction in knowing that I, at the very least, did not make a poor choice. I remain a regular visitor to this site, however, because I enjoy the level of discourse. While often heated and contentious, the exchange between contributors rarely devolves into name calling. It also manages to rise above gloating and I-told-you-so commentary.
By the way, I currently live in Melbourne, Australia (I used to live in southern Cal). There are signs that the housing prices here may fall. Like Californiaās, housing prices have increased tremendously in the last 6 years. Today, Melbournians pay about 38% of their monthly take-home in mortgage on average. While the economy is strong due to commodities exports to China, Australia has traditionally suffered when the U.S. suffers economically. For these reasons and the potential impact of global credit squeeze, some World Bank economists and national economists warn that house prices could fall by 30 ā 40 percent.
Thank, Irvine Renter, for your dedication and hard work. Does anyone know of a good real estate blog like irvinehousingblog.com for this part of the world?
G in INdiana
Lurker in Indiana but we used to live in El Toro Lake Forest area in the late 80’s. We sold our house way back then and now live on 22 acres in Indiana. We won’t ever move back (too crowded, too noisy, too many people) but I have learned a lot about real estate from this blog. The main thing, which I’ve always known, is something is worth only whatever someone else will pay for it. No amount of sentiment, cash down, or other intangibles make it worth more or less.
Dude
I’ve lurked since Mar 2007. I lived in the Solano county area of California from 2003 to 2005, and I’m going back this summer. The bubble was obvious in 2003, and I rented. Now, the cost to buy in that area is nearing the cost to rent. I’m using your “How Much a House Really Costs” article to help. This probably my next to last assignment before retiring.
Carl
I mostly lurk too. I sold my house in Turtle Rock in 2006 and moved out to Raleigh, NC, and literally got twice as much house for half the price. Raleigh is a really nice place to live, but I do miss OC sometimes and I toy with the idea of coming back someday so I like to keep track of what is going on.
It looks like Turtle Rock is the last village to the party. I am so curious as to what will happen there… I couldn’t BELIEVE some idiot bought my zero-lot-line, leaky-ass flat room, 5000 sq-foot lot, stucco box for almost a million bucks!
Carl
Chris from Concord
Delurking – I lived in Minnesota for most of my life, and owned the houses I lived in for most of my adulthood. When my wife and I relocated to the Bay Area in 2006, we saw the obvious disconnect between real estate prices, rental prices and incomes. The decision to rent was a no-brainer.
Two years later, the situation in Contra Costa County is pretty bad. There are houses in my neighborhood that have displayed “for sale” signs for the entire time we’ve lived here! At present, 45% of housing sales in Contra Costa County are of properties in some stage of foreclosure.
I first encountered irvinehousingblog by following a link from Atrios. I was deeply impressed by your combining the charts and graphs of the overall picture with specific examples of what’s happening in Orange County. That really helps drive home the message.
I’ve used what I have learned here to research what’s going on with the property where we live. Sure enough, the landlord bought the property at the height of the bubble for about $180,000 more than the property is actually worth. I sincerely doubt that our rent is covering his cost of ownership.
Anyway, thanks for providing an enlightening resource and it’s a pleasure to read comments from other lurkers.
Minerva Figueroa
Hi! Also a lurker, and glad to have found this site. Keep up the good work.
M
ShutterBug
I’m a lurker currently living in Long Beach aiming to move back to Huntington Beach in 18 months- 3 years.
My husband and I will be first time homebuyers and this site gives us hope that we will be able to buy something reasonable in the near future.
In the meantime we are saving and paying down student loans.
Thanks for starting this site. Great work!
brea
I grew up in Irvine in the 70’s and early 80″s, then moved out to Riverside to buy. Lots more house for the money and the traffic wasn’t too bad back then. I am lucky to live in a greenbelt which feels like the Irvine I grew up in.
My husband still works in Irvine, and since the last kid is going off the college this year, we could actually move. I found IHB while trying to refamiliarize myself with the area. I now see that I will probably not be buying until 2011 or later. That is assuming that my husband’s job survives the economic blood bath and I still have a downpayment (I have been reading alot of other blogs too). I am just looking for a small condo with low HOA dues and no Mello Roos that I will use as a weekday home. I am currently debt free and like it that way.
Now I still have to convince my husband that this is a good plan. He is telling me that the drive isn’t that bad. Some people just hate change.
Thanks Irvine Renter and for all the work you do. And also, thank you to the regular bloggers for all your contributions. I am addicted to your blog.
HomeSchooled
I rent a house in Irvine, and until I found this blog, I was embarrassed for not owning.
While I’m not longer embarrassed, I’ve grown a bit bitter about having been priced out of the market by the kool-aid drinkers and by the irresponsible mortgage industry folks.
My husband works for a company that counts big banks among their clients, and needless to say his company is now struggling because the banks can’t pay for their services anymore. This adds to my bitterness.
Toronto luxury condos
I mostly lurk too. I sold my house in Turtle Rock in 2006 and moved out to Raleigh, NC, and literally got twice as much house for half the price. Raleigh is a really nice place to live, but I do miss OC sometimes and I toy with the idea of coming back someday so I like to keep track of what is going on. Toronto condos for sale
factor
Lurker here from NY. Prices not as inflated here as they are there.
Love to read the snarky comments. Don’t know why anyone would want to live in Irvine, however.
Thankful follower from near Irvine
Hi, this is Thankful follower near Irvine again. I thought the responses on my e-mail address are all notifications only so I deleted them all before even reading them. So sorry, but my only defense is that because this is the first time I ever posted in Irvine Housing Blog (and probably the last time too), I promise I will not delete the e-mail notifications again should I get any more responses before reading them and I apologize here for not replying. Again, sorry and wish everyone have a great weekend.
hopeful 1st time buyer
I guess you can add me to the list of lurky loos. I watch the blog even though my husband and I will likely buy in Mission Viejo – Irvine is close so the trends tend to be similar.
My husband and I are ready (financially) to buy our first house/condo, but we’re waiting until it doesn’t look quite as risky to buy. Last year, it looked like we could only afford a condo (sad given our income and downpayment status); this year we’re starting to become hopeful that if we wait it out, we may be able to buy a modest sized SFR in a decent neighborhood. So far, Irvine Renter has been right on – hoping he’s right all the way to the bottom!
Even with the prices the way they’re at, it seems unfair that a family with 20% down and over 100K in annual income is pushed into crackerboxes. Housing prices are way out of line with income and we’re hoping to see this ratio stabilize at a much healthier level, as has been predicted on this blog.
Happy Renter
Hopeful 1st time buyer – don’t buy yet, the time is not right. My husband & I got caught up in the same thing back in the 90s downturn (as 1st time buyers). Prices fell, so it was a good time to buy. Sound familiar? But, prices plunged even more & we got burned. Be patient, prices are not going up.
Lucky Lucker
Hi, I’ve been lurking for about 1 year. Your site is awesome. I sold my homes in 2001 after 9/11 mostly b/c I was an out of town landlord but partly b/c even back them prices rose so far so fast… I was an early bear. In any case, I have been renting since then and will buy when owning makes more sense for my family than renting does. I consider myself “lucky” to have gone through a real estate crash in Boston and Phoenix in the 90s. I was actively involved in the internet bubble and crash too so I was able to learn that bubbles burst. Many people never learn that. My hope is that everyone reads your blog at least once (and I often tell people to read it) so that 10 years from now, when the next bubble happens (eg solar, China, India, Brazil?) they will get out before it pops. Great job IHB!
Alan
Another lurker …
I owned a small house for about 5 years in Holland (I used to live in California, but moved away “temporarily”) about 15 years ago, when I noticed that the mortgage payments would be less than what I was paying in rent. Made a small profit when I moved again and sold it. Just luck really, I didn’t know how to evaluate the investment.
Since then I’ve always rented, though I periodically think about buying, generally when reading about prices going up-up-up and homeowners apparently getting rich.
So, lurking and learning as much as I can, in case the day comes when I need to own a place, or it becomes worthwhile from an investment standpoint.
Is there somewhere on the site where you explain what is meant by and goes into “equity burn”?
IrvineRenter
Equity burn is just the amount a property is declining in value each month assuming it will drop 10% a year for the next 2 years.
Alan
Thanks.
I am currently living in Germany, and will soon be moving to a different (German) city. The rent or buy question comes up as always. Of course the markets and tax situations are very different from Irvine, but the fundamental evaluation is the same I think. Lots of adjustments at the margins for the local conditions, but black does not change into white.
I started to look into a purely investment purchase in Toronto at one time too, but realized I didn’t have nearly enough idea of what I’d be doing, to do it. Of course thought about California too from time to time (I’ve lived in both northern and southern Cal) but prices were too crazy.
Thanks for this site, and I look forward to your book!
Forbear
Greetings all, Iāve been lurking here for a month or so and have enjoyed the educational experience and realization that Iām not the only one waiting patiently. Looks like Iāll be waiting a bit longer while enduring the pain of the IAC.
Shouldnāt be long before we see folks in Irvine on street corners holding signs like āWill work for HELOCā.
badcandy
I’ll take the opportunity to say thank you for the site, I have learned so much in such a short time. It came in handy the other night, as it happens a few of my guildies in WoW have lost their homes (or are in the process of), and IHB has taught me the lingo and given me a reasonable grounding in the subject. It allowed me to empathize and understand on a level that they weren’t expecting.
As for me, I was soured on house shopping while living in England, the surveyor’s report opened with an apology saying he could see how easy it would be to fall in love with such a unique house, but that there were problems *in every area*.
I grew up on a farm in New Hampshire, and have since lived in New York, Boston, Seattle, and Nottingham. It’s been wild, the culture shock of moving to England gave me some preparation for the culture shock of moving to Irvine, but… wow. Conspicuous consumerism. Thank you for the blog and letting me know that there ARE cool people in Irvine.
Nude
I <3 IHB
mk
I’ve been lurking for 6 months.
My wife and I bought our first place (a condo) in April 07 in Boston, MA. Little did I know that I bought in the death-throes of the great bubble. Afterwards, I started reading and seeing whether or not we got a good deal. I stumbled across this site and have been reading ever since.
I wish that there was a BostonRenter ;] But from all indications things aren’t even remotely as crazy here as they were out West. The verdict is out on whether we got a good deal, I’ve been trying to do research and monitor comps – and my layman’s analysis is that in our area there is a shortage of cash. Expensive units (400k+) remain untouched in my area, even after a year on the market. One of the developers of my condo building stated that the people who would buy these expensive units cannot find buyers to unload their existing house in the burbs – which sounds pretty plausible.
The real question becomes, will the shortage of money translate to lower prices? It seems like it has to, but the developers I’ve seen here refuse to budge on price and they are starting to rent to survive the storm.
Its a interesting question because if the East coast was not over-inflated during the Bubble, yet the huge cash vortex out West is taking money away from everyone – will that cause the “fairly priced” houses/condos out East to drop below their “fair price”?
-M
Major Schadenfreude
Happy Patriot’s Day tomorrow!
Go Boston marathoners!
small
I’ve been reading this site everyday for about a month or so now. I’ve never owned a property, but I’ve lived within my means and am saving up for a down payment for a house. I’m quite glad I found this site as I’ve learned:
1. I can really afford to wait
2. If I wait too long and “miss” an opportunity…well gee, I guess I can go on renting.
I have lots of newbie questions but I’ll be learning and absorbing…for the next year or two before I make my move.
Gustaf Erikson
Hi from Sweden. I found this site from the Slate article and wasted half a day at work reading through it. Fascinating stuff! The market in Stockholm is nowhere near as crazy as in California, but we’ll get caught in the fallout anyway.
Thanks for a great resource. Keep up the good work!
dcn
I’ve been lurking for about a year now after moving back from Chicago. I thought prices in Chicago (Lincoln Park) were high but the OC market is much worse.
Keep up the great work Irvine Renter. Thanks to you (plus a dad & a brother in the RE market) I will keep saving for the next several years and enjoy watching prices decline š
r_h
I’ve been lurking here for a few months now. IHB is my first read after coming home from work.
Kudos to IR, can’t wait for the book.
maureen
I love this blog! It has great graphics, visuals and pictures. The bloggers here are usually more professional than on the other ones I lurk (and laugh at). I love the way you tie in the music videos to the theme of the housing market, Irvine Renter. Most importantly though, I would like to thank you for the hope that you have given this 35 year old school teacher. It is nice to know that I soon will be able to buy a home at a reasonable price. All my life I have been a saver who has payed off debt (ie student/car loans) quickly. In this culture of seemingly endless indulgence by use of credit, I sometimes wondered why I maintained such prudence with my finances, and if it would ever pay off. I almost drank the Kool Aid in 2004. It is amazing to think that prices are now back at that level again, and dropping! Thanks Again! š
chill
I live practically in Berkeley, and prices in neighborhoods worth living in either have remained very high and not declined nearly into affordability, or have simply kept increasing. This is true of East Bay neighborhoods as well as neighborhoods in San Francisco.
By “neighborhoods worth living in” I mean not putting yourself at risk from gun violence, and being close enough to public transportation to compensate for lack of parking.
Moving further out to purchase for more money is nonsensical given my current rent.
“Everybody says” SF peninsula is “immune” and so far, outside of a few neighborhoods (that gun violence thing), “everyone” is correct.
It’s disheartening at times.
Minerva Figueroa
can you elaborate on good neigborhoods in the city?
bruins@oc
I’ve been lurking here for 6+ months and have learned quite a lot from this blog / forums.
My wife and I have owned a starter home in Oakcreek since 99 and looking to move up when the time / price is right.
Some highlights off the top of my head in no particular order:
– various analysis posts on the workings and pitfalls of creative mortgages.
– community profiles and photos of various villages / enclaves of Irvine.
– links to other sites of interests including calculated risk, redfin, monster munching blog.
– “money as debt” video link and awgee’s discussion on “Au”.
– “The MOST IMPORTANT POST ever” – seeing the mortgage meltdown in progress.
– bkshopper’s marketing research on Asians
– ISM’s mention of Settler park. My kids love that place, thanks.
Many thanks to IR and various other contributors that make this site so enjoyable and educational.
IrvineRenter#988
My husband and I love reading this blog…so entertaining and informative. Sometimes I can’t stop laughing about some of the things that are posted. We’ve been renting in Irvine for 3 years and waiting for the right time to buy, along with a lot of other people, which I was pleasantly surprised to discover. I’m glad we’re not the only ones in this boat. It sure felt like we were the only ones when my sister kept pressuring me to buy a house just because we have 2 kids. But ever since the whole subprime mess started, she hasn’t said anything again. Anyways, I’ll just say hi and thanks for posting the blogs, IR. š
mark
Hi. Visit the site regularly and I have learned from the blogs and the discussions. Without knowing anything about re, I almost bought at the top in Vegas, and glad I didnt. The rent vs monthly payment just didnt make sense to me. I also couldnt figure out why one broker quoted $4k more than the other, so I was suspicious. Now I am waiting for further declines and want to purchase a condo in SM, but the prices are more stubborn here.
By the way, why am I called a lurker or troll? LOL. Kinda harsh name for someone observing a discussion/debate about a topic that one does not understand to learn.
fred
Redondo Beach here – I enjoy IHB — so I keep getting all this Portola Springs email lately – Portola is your playground – oh please – I’ve yet to see a black person in any of the brochures.
Andrea
Geez, itās probably been close to a year that Iāve been lurking ā¦ I mean reading ā¦ these posts! Theyāve been educational, entertaining, and most of all, have helped me keep my sanity. My husband and I have been waiting to buy for what seems like forever. I thought we were in a bubble back in 2003, and prices just continued to rise. Everyone thought I was crazy, and I was starting to wonder if they were right. It was a relief to find a community of like-minded people on this site.
I bought my first place in Burbank in 1989. Within 2-3 years I had lost my entire 20% down payment. The interest rate was around 10%, and I couldnāt refinance for years because I didnāt have enough equity. It was painful. I had lost all of my savings and with a hefty mortgage I couldnāt even afford to take a vacation. If I hadnāt put my life savings down on the place, would I have walked away? Iām sure I would have — just as Iām sure everyone with zero down financing and negative equity will eventually do.
Well, Iāve since relocated to San Jose and my condo in Burbank is now a rental (finally have a positive cash flow). Itās been a drag renting all these years, but I just couldnāt bear to go through that again. The drop in property values up here seems to be accelerating, particularly in the fringe communities. We actually saw an $800K house in Gilroy drop by $100K in one ārollbackā, and it wasnāt the first. Itās just amazing to watch this market unwind.
Anyway, a special thanks to Irvine Renter. I canāt wait to learn your true identity and hopefully read your new book. I know itāll be a best seller!
jprice vincenz
I came here on an Atrios link, I think, about six months ago, and this and calculated risk are my newest non-politics blogs for daily reading. Three thousnad miles away, I still use your info as food for thought while I watch a former colleague, who has lost her job try to sell her house (bought for 320, trying to sell for 380, but comps in the vicinity are 260). Thanks for the great daily posts!
Jprice
PS–I love open comments on a blog. One of the things that most pisses me off about, say, Glenn Greenwald’s move to Slate is that comments are only for registered users. That inconvenience is fatal for me.
Kak
Another daily lurker (native San Franciscan, now renting in Santa Monica). I followed a link from Kevin Drum’s site 4 – 5 months ago and am now a regular reader. I find the information here (and also at Calculated Risk) fascinating and informative — not only because I hope to purchase a house within the next few years, but also because it suggests that it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Will certainly purchase your book when it comes out.
Thanks!
idaho
delurking to say—I love this blog. One of the six or seven blogs that I check on a regular basis.
beardds
I’m a regular reader, and I even posted once or twice, though under a different name which I can’t remember. I’m an Irvine resident; purchased in Westpark (Aventura tract) in December 2005 – not quite at the peak price for my particular model, but darned close. Most days I don’t feel badly about my decision to purchase; I like my house, I was happy to escape from Ladera Ranch, and I’m not going anywhere anytime soon. Love this blog!
Melissa Fox
Outed lurker – re professional, former Irvine resident – moved South a freeway exit to Lake Forest and purchased a much-too-expensive house in Summer ’05. I enjoy your take on the market.
Nurk2
Another long-time lurker here. I remember coming across this blog a couple years back when I was looking at real-estate on line. The recent Slate article reminded me of it.
As a person with mortgages on two properties in Syracuse NY, reading this blog is like reading about life on the planet Mars. Fascinating and very foreign–$400K for a 1,200 sf condo? Bizarre. Then I go to the listings and see the satellite photos. I enlarge and enlarge them and all I see is more and more densely-packed homes sitting on top of densely packed homes and I keep thinking, who would want to live in the middle of all of that AND shell out 3K/mo for the privilege? Like I said, it’s both fascinating and foreign.
Here’s a home in the greater Syracuse area for $440K.
What’s that? The best school district in the area for about 100 a square-foot? It’s not even the same planet.
Back to lurking….
audio
Love the site.
Great for lurking.
kwh9
I don’t live anywhere near Irvine, but was puzzled for years about how you Californians could afford to purchase houses on salaries that weren’t much (if at all) bigger than those in other parts of the country. IHB explained all that with really neat graphs and thorough analysis. I come back repeatedly just for reaffirmation that it wasn’t me who was crazy!
The OC
Been a lurker for about a year – sometimes add a comment. I’m a daily reader; between this blog & patrick.net (awesome collection of articles) & housingpanic.com (hysterical postings, but sometimes a little over the edge), I’ve learned about avoiding being a ‘knife-catcher’. Sold a condo in South OC in ’07 (but which had been purchased in ’90 & no HELOC withdrawals, so 350K profit) — post bubble, but still at a price that, within a year, will list for $100K less than my sales price. Parked the $$ in a 5% CD, where its just sitting. Have been renting in one of the ‘very special’ beach communities. My rent is actually higher than my former combined monthly P%I, taxes, HOA fees, but the condo development where I formerly owned is aging, falling apart & no longer in a thriving community. I’m still very glad I got out when I did, and that the new purchase I otherwise would have made never happened (new mortgage, BTW, in Ladera Ranch or Talega would have been even higher than my current rent in the fancy beach community). Now that I study these blogs daily, I’ll continue to check in with the collective wisdom. I’ve been most impressed with the financial backgrounds of alot of people who post comments, and get a sense that they seem to know what they’re talking about. Housingpanic.com covers alot of banking & global finance issues. Have definitely had eye-popping lessons there. I probably would have bought an amount of gold, but definitely had second thoughts, given alot of the chatter.
I think many of us are very grateful to you for taking so much time for this. It almost seems like its a full time job. And, best regards with respect to getting your book published! :coolsmile:
califax
Hi, here’s califax from germany. Just in case I keep writing comments here – please excuse my lousy english. I might sometimes miss the right tune, rape english grammar or choose the wrong words. But I ain’t here to cause trouble. I’m just reading the blog. š
bananatree
Another Lurker…
I mainly follow this site as I expect it to be earlier and more honest in its reporting of the next mortgage writedown wave than any mainstream media.
Having no mortgage and a lot of liquidity I see the current situation as an opportunity, although I am done with real estate for a while (except my own home).
For those who thought they had missed the home-ownership opportunity several years ago there will be some great opportunites this year and next. All it takes is patience, peserverence, financial honesty, a long term strategy, realistic expectations and ruthlessness at the right time to make real estate a great financial opportunity. Those who lacked these over the last decade are receiving their reward – in more than just the housing market.
Bananatree
Rob
Greetings… I’m a reader from Boulder, Colorado, in a neighborhood where 1000 sq. ft. houses are still being regularly bought for ~$400K, demolished, and replaced with 3000+ sq. ft. mansions (which are selling in the $1.5 million+ range). I have relatives in Orange County, and I also come from a family of ethical realtors. Enjoying the site on many levels.
-Rob.
cara
not entirely lurking, I’ve made a few comments
Came here from the link in Slate. My husband and I live in the D.C. metro area and are saving up for a down payment finally after years of what I call “under-employment” of one or the other of us being in graduate school. Given that the prices started rising out of affordability two years before I got my PhD, it’s been a blessing in disguise to have to move from post doc to post doc in the years since so as to have avoided the permanency that would have prompted me to buy at exactly the wrong time.
This blog does an amazing public service by educating people as to the real value of real estate in a thorough, concrete and understandable manner. Regular news outlets still talk as if the problem is declining home prices, not the real issue of un-affordable housing.
What I’m most grateful for from this blog however is how much of a dent its made in rooting out the thoroughly in-grained beliefs about home ownership that NAR and the culture as a whole had built up in me over the years. The feeling of “if you don’t buy now you’ll be priced out forever” was the first one to go, as it was demonstably not true given the falling market, but it took reading IHB’s historical graphs of how slow past recoveries start up to truly get rid of that idea. The connections to all the various real estate myths such as “around here everyone is rich, that’s why prices are high” was a epiphanal moment for me. People really do say this shit. And in fact, that one? I’ve said that one. My next hurdle is getting past my lower expectations for reasonable housing in the northeast. It’s still hard for me to believe that condos will fall below rental parity, because it’s been so long that all I’ve set my expectations for in a first home buy is a 2-3 bedroom condo, preferably 2 stories. And prices near one metro station outside D.C. have reached within 10% of rental parity, making it hard not to buy now and be a knife catcher. But IHB is helping me keep my sanity, so that this summer when we have $50k saved and start looking I hold out for some place I truly feel I can call home for 5-10 years, and if I don’t find it, buck up to the fact that we’re going to have to move 2 years in a row and rent one more year (we HAVE to move to get shorter commutes, staying where we are now is NOT an option).
But I do wonder whether in the markets with smaller bubbles, if things will really fall as far as they “should”. I mean, if I, who read this blog daily, have a tough time getting rid of my preconceptions about real estate, the bulk of buyers in “hot” markets may never wake up.
Oh, and I think zillow needs to add a feature “make me buy” instead of make me move. Then I could list my requirements and price point and let some one offer me their house. Turn-about is fair-play right?
Irvine Cyclist
A little late to post but I’m a regular IHB lurker. Love IHB!!! Always a great topic of discussion among my wife and friends. Irvine renter please don’t ever stop writing.
I do have one question that I often ponder. What will happen when Irvine Renter buys a home?
Thanks to Irvine Renter and all who post such great stuff.
Shanscho
:cheese:
Costa Mesa lurker here.
I read the blog every day. Fortunately bought in 1999 and seem to be the only one I know that owns my house outright. It makes it a lot harder to take the plunge back into debt for the sake of more space. I have no sympathy whatsoever for the people that bought “stucco boxes” they couldn’t afford. The old adage is true: If it seems to good to be true, then it probably is.
Thanks Irvine Renter~ I’m waiting for my upgrade, on my own terms, thanks to you!
Interesting article on OC woes.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/apr2008/db20080415_242666.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
Hello there. I’m a lurker. I lurk. Love the site and visit daily. It’s about the only thing that gives me hope that my wife and I may some day be able to buy a house for its actual value.
Just this week our landlord (failed flipper) re-offered to sell the beautiful old town Orange home we rent for north of $500 a square foot. After I informed her that I didn’t think she was capable of offering me a price I would be willing to consider, she informed me she will be raising the rent.
Oh joy. Keep up the good work.
I’m renting from a floplord too, he bought at the peak but put a big down payment, probably he has high hopes for prices come back in 2H08, Ha!, he has offered me the property several times in the past, I tell him, I like the area, schools, etc. but I say some valid excuses: I have a housewife, 2 incomes are needed in OC, don’t tell him if I have savings or not, etc. the rule that I follow is: don’t disclose anything that could give him an anxiety attack.
Kevmo – Welcome to the blog!
If I may offer some words of advice … calmly explain to the dear floplord that she is well within her rights to raise the rent but a quick review of comparable rents would seem to dictate that she’d have a tough time re-renting the home upon your vacancy at the new rate.
If you’re willing to do a little work and rent elsewhere, I would bet dollars to donuts she reconsiders the rent increase. After all, the same rent from you is better than no rent coming in. She’s willing to bet you’re tied to the home and she still thinks she’s got leverage on you when in fact, she really doesn’t have much leverage at all. Plenty of places to rent these days … she’s still drinking the cool aid. Just my two cents.
Our landlady is wanting to sell the place to us too. Too bad there’s a SFH (compared to our condo) with the same square footage listed down the street at $150K less than what she paid. I’ll probably make an offer, but she’s not going to like the number.
Hi Kevin:
Great to see you here. Tell A I said ‘Hi’.
Andi
š
I am a lurker and dare I say- homeowner in Ladera Ranch. We are probably one of the few in our neighborhood who bought within our means (30yr fixed, 5.25%) in 2003. We actually have always lived below our means . . .oh what freedom! We were thinking about moving into larger quarters in 2006 and that is when I started to lurk at the irvinehousingblog and the housingbubbleblog every day. So you guys saved us from a really bad decision. The home we were going to buy has lost $300,000 in value already. I’d rather give that money to charity!
Keep blogging, I am addicted to this site.
hey, i lurk. don’t usually have much to contribute to the discussions.
bought a townhouse in Lake Forest back in ’02, then had a family and couldn’t afford an actual house (since everything doubled in price by 2005), then watched our neighbors NOT sell their places for many many long months, then decided to just rent out our place (breaking even, no profit) so that we could at least rent an actual house with a yard & garage and all that good stuff. so now we’re waiting to be able to afford a house in Lake Forest (where we work) and hoping the economy doesn’t turn into total [feces].
I live in Seattle, but like to keep track of real estate in CA and WA. The detailed investigative work on various properties, deep market analysis, postings, are very insightful and thought provoking. There’s also a Seattle real estate blog that I monitor, http://seattlebubble.com/blog/
I would be keen to understand some of the longer demographic implications when most of the baby boom generation retire and what they will do with their real estate portfolio.
I’m a mostly lurker. Occasionally, I just have to comment, though…Mostly to defend denser living, since I love living in San Francisco and walking everywhere.
I finished remodeling my Seattle area home in early 2005, and got more and more nervous about the housing bubble. I didn’t want to lose money on the remodel, and knew there was a steep correction on the way. We sold at the peak of the year in 2005, and moved to a beautiful rental at half our mortgage payment (with a much easier yard to take care of and nearly no maintenance). I missed the peak of the bubble by a year, but the joys of renting made up for it.
Now we’ve moved to SF, and have high rent, but nothing compared to what the cost to buy our place would be. According to Zillow, my landlord paid 1.9 million for our 2 unit building. Yikes! My rent is nothing compared to what a mortgage payment on that would be!
I love reading IHB and watching the correction happen. There’s so much good information that I can’t get on my own — past sales, current amount owed, etc…And there is a certain element of enjoyment in seeing the housing bubble theories proved true after so many people told me there was no bubble. I also love all the commenters here. Intelligent, well thought out comments without personal attacks or wild conspiracy theories are quite refreshing.
Nice to meet everybody!
The whole housing “bubble” is a conspiracy by the democrat party to make President Bush look bad. It’s no coincidence that the market started going flat when the democrats took the majority in Congress in 2006.
Okay, an occasional conspiracy theory is fun.
(refrains from political comment here. Blog…is…about….housing!)
Conspiracy theories may be “fun” in movies, but conspiracy facts hurt everyoneā¦ except the elitists. You cannot pretend that government actions occur in a vacuum and have no effect on markets nor can you pretend that those being foreclosed on didn’t incur a much deserved wrath for their lack of prayer.
Right, like conspiracies that we never landed on the moon, the government created AIDS and that vaccines cause autism have done so much good. Our continued worship of feelings over facts in the U.S. is going to be our downfall.
“Our continued worship of feelings over facts in the U.S. is going to be our downfall.”
The downfall of America will be anti-Christian comments like this. I find it sickening that Christians are the most persecuted majority in this country ā a country that was founded on the principle that we are a nation under God. You people will have to take Christmas from our cold dead hands. We’re not giving it up without a fight.
You need professional help or English classes. Last time I checked this blog is about Real Estate, and Christmas or the holiday season is still legal.
:smirk:
I agree with your assertions.In the meantime you and I will lurk and wait for a good deal, while they watch tv and believe drink the kool aid.
I already have the best professional help that one can have: God. Your minimization of His role in your life, including your real estate investments, will be your doom. I angered Him by not kicking my daughter out of the house earlier and He gave my home back to the bank. We all make mistakes and I have learned from mine.
Like I said……….. :smirk:
I see what you are getting at. Well, before you get all self righteous, know that after I left my daughter on the side of I37 I was able to secure a pay option loan for a slightly bigger house than the one that was taken. The neg-am payments are actually less than my previous interest-only loan. I’m not stupid enough to make the same mistake twice.
Lurker, and bitter renter here.
Also, another persecuted Christian. ( If only we could get a Christian in the White House!)
I’m interested in markets in general, and the housing collapse is fascinating to watch. If it continues I might actually be able to afford a condo in Barstow.
Hi Irvine renter -Thanks for recognizing us lurkers. Love the site.
Big fan of the site. Long-time resident of Irvine, both as a renter and an owner. Never drank the Kool-Aide. Wouldn’t touch my equity EVER! Cannot believe people used their equity as an ATM.
Keep up the great work!
Hi, I have been lurking for over a year. Have posted comments a few times, but due to my schedule, can’t seem to keep up with comments. But I still try to make it a point to read the blog every day.
IR’s blog has saved us from taking the plunge twice, and can’t thank him enough for that! Am waiting to see how things shape up at the end of the summer, although it could be next year when we are back in the housing market.
Eagerly looking forward to IR’s Housing Bubble book.
Cheers! š
Thank you all for posting. I hope some more post over the weekend.
I’m one of them lurkers also. Rent in SF, but very interested in what happens down south. Seems like we are starting our downward spiral up here. IHB gives me a glimpse of the future.
I bought in WestPark in 1995.Want to step up to a view property… Looking for a deal.
well hello there….been lurking for a while now. great site, great humor.
Long time reader. Fantastic blog, much thanks to the contributors.
Now that RE price decline is established, and also the huge losses to the source of this mortgage money, leading to the government trying to paper over the current and yet-to-come losses at the source end, I am curious about the potential consequences to regular folks due this ongoing attempt to paper over these huge losses. For example, would the increase in food and fuel-derived costs squeeze the household budget, resulting in fewer qualified buyers? As Alt-A and prime losses kick in, would CA have trouble kicking the revenue shortfall can down the road and be forced to increase taxes? Would the dollar continue downward, leading to increased import prices? More squeeze on buyers?
Way to bring all the lurkers out into the light.
I’m a homeowner that bought in (gasp) 2004. We moved here as first-time (read: naive) homeowners from Boston. By comparison, OC prices seemed almost reasonable. We thought we were making out like bandits because our mortgage here was less than our rent out there.
Now the house next door is vacant, recently purchased by a flipper looking to make a quick buck. No such luck. We can easily make our mortgaged, but would be at break-even or loss should we suddenly have to sell.
Like another post by a lurker, we considered attempting to “move up” in 2006, but I stumbled on this website and put the breaks on that move. Thank you IrvineHousingBlog!!
Hi Irvine Renter et al! I’ve been lurking for a few months. Good work! I’ve learned many things here, and feel that I am now equipped to make sound decisions, if and when my family moves again.
You know that Irvine Renter has his finger on the pulse of the housing bubble — the bursting forehead vein, I should say!
I’ve been lurking for several months since I thought my family might move to Irvine, though now it looks like Carlsbad. IHB is the best RE blog I have found.
We’re moving from Lee County, FL, which appears to be ahead of the curve and into the capitulation phase IR is anticipating. Some listings here state “Not a short sale” to stand out from the crowd.
We’ve been renting for several years due to frequent moves; I hope I can convince my wife to wait at least a year before we buy in CA. It’s hard for her to argue with plots of housing prices going down 1% per month. I use the ones at http://voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/11/23/toscano/860hpitiersreal112307.txt
Another lurker here. My husband, 1 year old, and I recently moved to Orange County from Texas. We’re renting a house right now and hoping home prices keep dropping so that we can afford to buy some day. For now we’ll keep saving for our down payment.
CW,
Welcome! I’m a fellow Texan who just moved to Irvine in February. How crazy are rent and home prices out here for these little stucco boxes? It almost makes me miss the humidity. Almost…
The prices are outrageous, but we are really, really enjoying the weather.
Happy Lurker here. Just having fun with this site. My wife and I live in westpark II and we bought our house in 2000. Refinanced in 2004 but didn’t touch heloc or equity line. Now our mortgage is half the avg rental in the area. Thank you Irvine Housing blog for keeping us sane and happy.
I’ve been lurking here like an estranged boyfriend at 2am in a trailer park.
Love the site, even though I know nothing about SoCal I feel plugged into the market because of this. Great info, and fun to read.
I haven’t lived in OC for over 10 years but I like to know what’s going on there. I read a few other housing/financial blogs also but this is the most hair-raising one.
OC is a great place, many people will pay a premium to live there, and there are a certain number of high income people, *but*, incomes have to support prices. I saw some houses with no lots in eastside Costa Mesa being advertised at over one million and there is just no way that is worth it.
I feel sorry for the people who bought responsibly at the peak and have lost a lot of money. The financial and political irresponsibility of our leadership is terrible.
Irvine Renter, thanks for being a sane voice during this crazy bubble. I’ve followed you from the start, and I appreciate all of the hard work and time that you and your staff have put in.
You are one of the best that I have seen at breaking down the complicated and confusing Mortgage and Real Estate Industry so that novices like me can understand.
I look forward to buying your book when it comes out.
Lurk diddy Lurkry Lurk.
Nice site.
My mother-in-law lives in Irvine and we lent her some money to buy a condo in 2004 š Believe it or not, I think she’s still at the break even point. A roof over her head keeps us all sane.
Hello — been lurking on this and other bubble blogs since moving back here last October (Torrance.) Looks like I will be renting for the foreseable future, and for the first time I don’t think of that as a bad thing. And I thought there was a bubble back in Chicago!
Keep up the good work.
I’m a renter in LA County with some weird notion that I might buy a house some day. This blog has provided me with so much great information that there’s really no way to appropriately thank you – short of giving you a commission on the house I wind up buying. I’ve turned many of my friends who are looking for houses in earnest and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that by sending them to your site I’ve probably saved some of them from making the worst decision of their life. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
I have posted a few times, but I am mostly a lurker. I live in CO, but used to live in L.A. I vividly recall the housing crash of the early 90s, so I have been watching this one with amazement. What were people thinking??
I also marvel at the behavior of the mortgage writers and the bad spelling of the relitters (heh) and I’m glad to learn I am not the only who doesn’t especially like granite.
Connecticut lurker – bought an REO from the bank in 1995 in the debris of the 90 crash [ just to show banks have been dumb longer than you think it got no bids at auction with a $1million reserve, sold for 330 2 years later sitting empty – probable current value +/- 650]. Proud to have told my daughter NOT to buy in Baltimore summer 2007. Think this blog is a fascinating collection of wisdom combined with well earned sour grapes for the guilty. Kind of like watching the real estate equivalent of Paris Hilton meets titanic. Keep up the good work, its addictive reading.
“Kind of like watching the real estate equivalent of Paris Hilton meets titanic.”
There you go, IR, a marketing blurb for your upcoming book.
Happy passover…longtime lurker here…I love the blog, and don’t really love Irvine, but may ultimately have to suck it up and move there some day for the schools. Wish somebody would start up a Huntington Beach housing blog site. No time for me to do it though.
I’m a lurker, too. I love this blog even though I don’t live or plan to live in Irvine. I’m a San Clemente homeowner since 1995 watching my equity evaporate by the month. I’d really like to sell and downsize. Just trying to figure out when it makes sense to do so.
Lull between playoff games so I thought I’d check out the WOT. Nice to see so many lurks posting a how-dee…
I’m a volume poster, mostly in the forums now, which are a great place to exchange ideas, humor, etc. I urge any of you that have been lurking to check out the forum threads. There is some real great stuff there.
Always much love to IR for his time and diligence.
http://www.ipoplaya.com
i lurk as well.
i live in northpark and put 30% down nine months ago. had i but been reading this fine blog at the time, i might have reconsidered.
but i like my place just fine and it fits my family quite well for the moment.
i read you every day over my morning coffee.
keep up the good work.
I lurk at IHB and live in Philadelphia. We bought our condo in 1999 in all cash deal with the proceeds from the sale of our house. Happy and content with our current condition.
Philadelphia certainly not in the condition of California but lots of units and homes piling up in the for-sale-inventory here.
This blog is wonderful. Much insight, even more wit. A site that shows the true potential of the Internets.
JohnS
Philadelphia, PA
Hello from yet another lurker. Came across this site almost a year ago, having just sold my OC home of many years & deciding to rent. I knew we were in for a correction but had no idea just how toxic the kool-aid had gotten.
Thanks to this site (and others like it) for the invaluable information & commentary.
Greetings Irvine Renter…
I’ve been lurking for the past 5-6 months, and I enjoy the information and insight you provide. I especially like the analysis pieces.
I grew up in SoCal (Downey) in the ’50’s and ’60’s. Our family used to go picnic in the country — we’d go out to O’Neill Park, somewhere around El Toro MAS. We’d drive for miles through the orange groves. Are there any orange groves left? Or have they all been turned into the houses that you blog about?
I’ve lived in Seattle for the last 25 years. Now, I gotta tell ya, we’re really SPECIAL up here. Much more so than Irvine. The local market peaked last summer, with the first YOY decline in prices occuring within the last few months. Everyone thinks it’s just a pause before the spring selling season kicks in, and prices resume their upward climb. But because I’ve been reading IHB, I know better, and I tell them what’s really going on. I expect that this time next year, we’ll look just like Irvine.
Keep up the good work!
I’ve lived in orange county since ’88 and I’ve yet to see an orange grove š
I did however have an orange tree in my back yard as a kid….
Hey IR – you have a staff!
Sorry, but I lose it when I look at prices in Irvine. $350k for a condo? 1999 was a crazy year for the economy, lest we forget about the internet bubble, and full size houses were $350k. How people can still cling to the bitter audacious hope that they will even obtain 1999 prices is just crazy. The self-absorbed do not bother looking at what is going on next door.
Hi,
I lived in Irvine for over 30 years. Bought my first home there in 1997. Sold it in 2006 and moved out of state. I have fond memories of Irvine in the 80’s but it’s really not the same place it was. Much of the charm is gone, all the orange trees, and kids playing outside, etc, etc. Woodbridge used to have community buses, hauling kids to pools and such.
Everyone told me once you leave california you can’t come back. This site it making it obvious that you can. But even then I don’t know if I would want to.
Another Lurker here; I came across this website the other day when it was referenced in a slate article. In August ’07 I moved to a suburb of Dallas from Portland Oregon. I almost feel guilty reading this blog since I indirectly profited from the California real estate bubble. Most of the equity in my old house in Oregon was a result of the market prices being fueled by Californians moving north and paying cash for houses around Portland.
I do have sympathy for people who have lost all their equity in the real estate bubble but I think people were being incredibly ignorant when they burned through their equity with HELOCs and assumed that the market value on their home was going to increase at a rate of 15 or 20% a year forever and ever. I hate to see people suffer but I really don’t want my tax dollars bailing out people and banks who made reckless financial decisions.
I’m a lurker from Columbus, Ohio; I guess I just find economic disaster interesting. I really love the quality of analysis and discussion here–it’s a gem! The info proved very useful in recently avoiding an unwise home purchase, too. Thanks and keep up the good work!
-John
Lurker here from the DC suburbs. I learned about IHB from Slate. I love me some Schadenfreude. Keep up the good work.
Irvine Renter,
Thanks for the blog. I post every once in a while mostly to tell your readers about my little corner of the world where the coolaid is still being drunk by the gallons.
I read you because you are describing what will happen to my neighborhood sometime in the future. I don’t know when, but the wife and I would like it to be soon so the kids could afford a house near us.
I check your site and Calculated Risk’s site everyday for the interesting writing and the very interesting commenters.
Best to you and all your commenters.
I’m a happily renting lurker. Thanks for keeping me a happy renter.
I have a suggestion to make: A friend of mine seems to be flirting with knife catching. She recently told me that she thought it was “a great time to buy — while interest rates are still low” and that she was going to start looking for starter homes in the Pacific Northwest. I then found myself trying to summarize the entire content of this site in 60 seconds or less. (Basically I said “Go read this site. It’s educational and fun! Meanwhile, compute the monthly cost of renting vs. buying and don’t buy until the two are essentially equal.” That’s a bit simplistic, but it might serve to stave off the immediate emergency.)
Would it be possible to select two or three of the most important introductory posts from this site — e.g. the explanation of what “160 GRM” means and why it’s important — and stick them in a box in the sidebar, with a heading like “Renter’s Survival Guide”? I need a simple link where I can refer people like my poor, insane friend.
I agree that this would be a great idea. I too have referred this blog to a number of would be knife catchers. In doing so I have sent them links to several of the great articles such as the social contract. Having a consolidated spot with the most important information for first-timers would be good.
Was reading about the next wave of RE excitement soon to be arriving in OC and noticed IHB got a mention on slate.com:
http://www.slate.com/id/2188982/pagenum/all/#page_start
Congrats IHB.
Another Seattle lurker here. Can’t help watching the Irvine train wreck in slomo. Especially interested in what happens to job growth in OC — the subprime mortgage epicenter.
Thanks for the great blog!
Fellow lurker renter here in Newport Beach. I work at a local urban design and planning firm and have learned a lot about the development and finance side of the industry both from listening to clients and from this site. Although the builders and developers are trying to stay optimistic it is increasingly clear that the house of cards so well illustrated above is crashing down with vengeful speed and relentless force. Luckily our firm has been able to get its hands on some international work to keep us going, but in spite of that we’ve lost 50% of staff in the past two months… OUCH!
Wow! And I thought I was the only lurker! I look forward to your blog everyday. I’ve learned so much from you, especially patience. My husband and I are happily renting and will wait until prices come down further. Thank you and keep up the great work!
Hello from Irvine’s bubble sister city, Phoenix, AZ. š
I enjoy reading this site everyday. Thank you for taking the time to create such outstanding content.
I also enjoy the ‘theme songs’ that are so appropriately selected for each post. I suggest that Sign of the Gypsy Queen be considered for future posts. š
Hi, this is Thankful Follower from near Irvine. I read Irvine Housing Blog everyday but never join any discussion whatsoever. I feel I should say something about this excellent blog from my own personal experience.
I used to be a professional flipper from 1985 to 1991 (buying in trustee sales). Many of my failed flips (or flops if you care) at that time, I just kept as investments and rent them out (still do). As I watched the prices going through the roof in 2004, I knew it cannot last (because Iāve been through a boom/bust cycle before), so I quietly gathering up my war chest and waiting patiently to make a play. Oh, how I waited and waited with seemingly no end in sight to this craziness. In the 2nd half of 2006, I decided to re-fi a few of my investment properties with 10 years very of low fixed interest rate (safety margin) and got the cash out to add to my war chest in the banks (CDs only) for a bigger play later. And because I had waited for a long time, I eventually grew inpatient and were a bit eager to make a play soon (I guess one of the āreal estate investmentā seminar I attended in May 2007 had something to do with it), I started to apply for five more HELOC on my investment properties at the beginning of the credit crunch in July 2007 (for a even bigger play later). Since I had my war chest parked safely at the banks for quite some time now and my credit is perfect, the banks had no choice but to gave me the HELOC I wanted (or I threaten to move my war chest to some other banks) at the beginning of Sept 2007. So I was naturally very excited and actively researching deals in Orange County (because home prices are āFinally Fallingā in Orange County, so to speak, and you just canāt lose in TD sales (instant equity, so I think!). Well, I guess I finally ran out of patience at that time (thatās usually not a good thing I supposed). While I was waiting for deals (not that easy for TD sale deals to come up), by accident and just a pure stroke of luck, I ran into Housing Bubbles Blog and Irvine Housing Blog. I read everything from Irvine Housing Blog all the way back to 2006 and all those information reminded me of the lessons I learned from the last boom and bust cycle but were almost totally forgotten now. I stop my original idea of āplaysā at once after I finished all those readings (by now the war chest had grown to over 10M+ and thanks to Irvine Renter, it is still there) and became a loyal (but all so silent follower) of Irvine Housing Blog ever since.
I thank Mr. Irvine Renter for all his incredible analysis and will continue to thank him in the future.
I have been following this blog for a long time and I truly believed in the bubble and stayed away from the market. I tried to save few others and some didn’t listen and got burned. Funny thing here is that even after jumping into the train wreck (folks who got in around 2004 or later) are still too optimistic and constantly speak of their speculation/denial that market will rebound later this year and they will recover all their loses in couple years…wishful thinking.
I also got several hooked up to this blog and they are true followers. I truly respect Irvinerenter for devoting his quality time and bringing clarity into this mess. I do post here occasionaly however these days I am full force on Google finance discussion boards posting on DOW Jones Industrials on how this Govt. and Fed are killing Americans.
Good job everyone. I hope we continue this blog and some day in the future we report on where we ended up buying and how much we saved by waiting on the sidelines and being bitter renters and how others did who didn’t believe in us.
I have been reading this blog since May 2006 and have never made a contribution; Iām a true lurker. Though I am still reluctant to join in the discussion since I have no experience in real estate, I have gained immensely in knowledge and understanding. I am looking to purchase a home in the next 12 ā 15 months. Whether I can translate what I have learned on irvinehousingblog.com into a prudent buying decision remains to be seen.
When I began reading irvinehousingblog.com, I must admit that I desired for some comeuppance and retribution. Since I did not profit from the run up in house prices, I could take satisfaction in knowing that I, at the very least, did not make a poor choice. I remain a regular visitor to this site, however, because I enjoy the level of discourse. While often heated and contentious, the exchange between contributors rarely devolves into name calling. It also manages to rise above gloating and I-told-you-so commentary.
By the way, I currently live in Melbourne, Australia (I used to live in southern Cal). There are signs that the housing prices here may fall. Like Californiaās, housing prices have increased tremendously in the last 6 years. Today, Melbournians pay about 38% of their monthly take-home in mortgage on average. While the economy is strong due to commodities exports to China, Australia has traditionally suffered when the U.S. suffers economically. For these reasons and the potential impact of global credit squeeze, some World Bank economists and national economists warn that house prices could fall by 30 ā 40 percent.
Thank, Irvine Renter, for your dedication and hard work. Does anyone know of a good real estate blog like irvinehousingblog.com for this part of the world?
Lurker in Indiana but we used to live in El Toro Lake Forest area in the late 80’s. We sold our house way back then and now live on 22 acres in Indiana. We won’t ever move back (too crowded, too noisy, too many people) but I have learned a lot about real estate from this blog. The main thing, which I’ve always known, is something is worth only whatever someone else will pay for it. No amount of sentiment, cash down, or other intangibles make it worth more or less.
I’ve lurked since Mar 2007. I lived in the Solano county area of California from 2003 to 2005, and I’m going back this summer. The bubble was obvious in 2003, and I rented. Now, the cost to buy in that area is nearing the cost to rent. I’m using your “How Much a House Really Costs” article to help. This probably my next to last assignment before retiring.
I mostly lurk too. I sold my house in Turtle Rock in 2006 and moved out to Raleigh, NC, and literally got twice as much house for half the price. Raleigh is a really nice place to live, but I do miss OC sometimes and I toy with the idea of coming back someday so I like to keep track of what is going on.
It looks like Turtle Rock is the last village to the party. I am so curious as to what will happen there… I couldn’t BELIEVE some idiot bought my zero-lot-line, leaky-ass flat room, 5000 sq-foot lot, stucco box for almost a million bucks!
Carl
Delurking – I lived in Minnesota for most of my life, and owned the houses I lived in for most of my adulthood. When my wife and I relocated to the Bay Area in 2006, we saw the obvious disconnect between real estate prices, rental prices and incomes. The decision to rent was a no-brainer.
Two years later, the situation in Contra Costa County is pretty bad. There are houses in my neighborhood that have displayed “for sale” signs for the entire time we’ve lived here! At present, 45% of housing sales in Contra Costa County are of properties in some stage of foreclosure.
I first encountered irvinehousingblog by following a link from Atrios. I was deeply impressed by your combining the charts and graphs of the overall picture with specific examples of what’s happening in Orange County. That really helps drive home the message.
I’ve used what I have learned here to research what’s going on with the property where we live. Sure enough, the landlord bought the property at the height of the bubble for about $180,000 more than the property is actually worth. I sincerely doubt that our rent is covering his cost of ownership.
Anyway, thanks for providing an enlightening resource and it’s a pleasure to read comments from other lurkers.
Hi! Also a lurker, and glad to have found this site. Keep up the good work.
M
I’m a lurker currently living in Long Beach aiming to move back to Huntington Beach in 18 months- 3 years.
My husband and I will be first time homebuyers and this site gives us hope that we will be able to buy something reasonable in the near future.
In the meantime we are saving and paying down student loans.
Thanks for starting this site. Great work!
I grew up in Irvine in the 70’s and early 80″s, then moved out to Riverside to buy. Lots more house for the money and the traffic wasn’t too bad back then. I am lucky to live in a greenbelt which feels like the Irvine I grew up in.
My husband still works in Irvine, and since the last kid is going off the college this year, we could actually move. I found IHB while trying to refamiliarize myself with the area. I now see that I will probably not be buying until 2011 or later. That is assuming that my husband’s job survives the economic blood bath and I still have a downpayment (I have been reading alot of other blogs too). I am just looking for a small condo with low HOA dues and no Mello Roos that I will use as a weekday home. I am currently debt free and like it that way.
Now I still have to convince my husband that this is a good plan. He is telling me that the drive isn’t that bad. Some people just hate change.
Thanks Irvine Renter and for all the work you do. And also, thank you to the regular bloggers for all your contributions. I am addicted to your blog.
I rent a house in Irvine, and until I found this blog, I was embarrassed for not owning.
While I’m not longer embarrassed, I’ve grown a bit bitter about having been priced out of the market by the kool-aid drinkers and by the irresponsible mortgage industry folks.
My husband works for a company that counts big banks among their clients, and needless to say his company is now struggling because the banks can’t pay for their services anymore. This adds to my bitterness.
I mostly lurk too. I sold my house in Turtle Rock in 2006 and moved out to Raleigh, NC, and literally got twice as much house for half the price. Raleigh is a really nice place to live, but I do miss OC sometimes and I toy with the idea of coming back someday so I like to keep track of what is going on.
Toronto condos for sale
Lurker here from NY. Prices not as inflated here as they are there.
Love to read the snarky comments. Don’t know why anyone would want to live in Irvine, however.
Hi, this is Thankful follower near Irvine again. I thought the responses on my e-mail address are all notifications only so I deleted them all before even reading them. So sorry, but my only defense is that because this is the first time I ever posted in Irvine Housing Blog (and probably the last time too), I promise I will not delete the e-mail notifications again should I get any more responses before reading them and I apologize here for not replying. Again, sorry and wish everyone have a great weekend.
I guess you can add me to the list of lurky loos. I watch the blog even though my husband and I will likely buy in Mission Viejo – Irvine is close so the trends tend to be similar.
My husband and I are ready (financially) to buy our first house/condo, but we’re waiting until it doesn’t look quite as risky to buy. Last year, it looked like we could only afford a condo (sad given our income and downpayment status); this year we’re starting to become hopeful that if we wait it out, we may be able to buy a modest sized SFR in a decent neighborhood. So far, Irvine Renter has been right on – hoping he’s right all the way to the bottom!
Even with the prices the way they’re at, it seems unfair that a family with 20% down and over 100K in annual income is pushed into crackerboxes. Housing prices are way out of line with income and we’re hoping to see this ratio stabilize at a much healthier level, as has been predicted on this blog.
Hopeful 1st time buyer – don’t buy yet, the time is not right. My husband & I got caught up in the same thing back in the 90s downturn (as 1st time buyers). Prices fell, so it was a good time to buy. Sound familiar? But, prices plunged even more & we got burned. Be patient, prices are not going up.
Hi, I’ve been lurking for about 1 year. Your site is awesome. I sold my homes in 2001 after 9/11 mostly b/c I was an out of town landlord but partly b/c even back them prices rose so far so fast… I was an early bear. In any case, I have been renting since then and will buy when owning makes more sense for my family than renting does. I consider myself “lucky” to have gone through a real estate crash in Boston and Phoenix in the 90s. I was actively involved in the internet bubble and crash too so I was able to learn that bubbles burst. Many people never learn that. My hope is that everyone reads your blog at least once (and I often tell people to read it) so that 10 years from now, when the next bubble happens (eg solar, China, India, Brazil?) they will get out before it pops. Great job IHB!
Another lurker …
I owned a small house for about 5 years in Holland (I used to live in California, but moved away “temporarily”) about 15 years ago, when I noticed that the mortgage payments would be less than what I was paying in rent. Made a small profit when I moved again and sold it. Just luck really, I didn’t know how to evaluate the investment.
Since then I’ve always rented, though I periodically think about buying, generally when reading about prices going up-up-up and homeowners apparently getting rich.
So, lurking and learning as much as I can, in case the day comes when I need to own a place, or it becomes worthwhile from an investment standpoint.
Is there somewhere on the site where you explain what is meant by and goes into “equity burn”?
Equity burn is just the amount a property is declining in value each month assuming it will drop 10% a year for the next 2 years.
Thanks.
I am currently living in Germany, and will soon be moving to a different (German) city. The rent or buy question comes up as always. Of course the markets and tax situations are very different from Irvine, but the fundamental evaluation is the same I think. Lots of adjustments at the margins for the local conditions, but black does not change into white.
I started to look into a purely investment purchase in Toronto at one time too, but realized I didn’t have nearly enough idea of what I’d be doing, to do it. Of course thought about California too from time to time (I’ve lived in both northern and southern Cal) but prices were too crazy.
Thanks for this site, and I look forward to your book!
Greetings all, Iāve been lurking here for a month or so and have enjoyed the educational experience and realization that Iām not the only one waiting patiently. Looks like Iāll be waiting a bit longer while enduring the pain of the IAC.
Shouldnāt be long before we see folks in Irvine on street corners holding signs like āWill work for HELOCā.
I’ll take the opportunity to say thank you for the site, I have learned so much in such a short time. It came in handy the other night, as it happens a few of my guildies in WoW have lost their homes (or are in the process of), and IHB has taught me the lingo and given me a reasonable grounding in the subject. It allowed me to empathize and understand on a level that they weren’t expecting.
As for me, I was soured on house shopping while living in England, the surveyor’s report opened with an apology saying he could see how easy it would be to fall in love with such a unique house, but that there were problems *in every area*.
I grew up on a farm in New Hampshire, and have since lived in New York, Boston, Seattle, and Nottingham. It’s been wild, the culture shock of moving to England gave me some preparation for the culture shock of moving to Irvine, but… wow. Conspicuous consumerism. Thank you for the blog and letting me know that there ARE cool people in Irvine.
I <3 IHB
I’ve been lurking for 6 months.
My wife and I bought our first place (a condo) in April 07 in Boston, MA. Little did I know that I bought in the death-throes of the great bubble. Afterwards, I started reading and seeing whether or not we got a good deal. I stumbled across this site and have been reading ever since.
I wish that there was a BostonRenter ;] But from all indications things aren’t even remotely as crazy here as they were out West. The verdict is out on whether we got a good deal, I’ve been trying to do research and monitor comps – and my layman’s analysis is that in our area there is a shortage of cash. Expensive units (400k+) remain untouched in my area, even after a year on the market. One of the developers of my condo building stated that the people who would buy these expensive units cannot find buyers to unload their existing house in the burbs – which sounds pretty plausible.
The real question becomes, will the shortage of money translate to lower prices? It seems like it has to, but the developers I’ve seen here refuse to budge on price and they are starting to rent to survive the storm.
Its a interesting question because if the East coast was not over-inflated during the Bubble, yet the huge cash vortex out West is taking money away from everyone – will that cause the “fairly priced” houses/condos out East to drop below their “fair price”?
-M
Happy Patriot’s Day tomorrow!
Go Boston marathoners!
I’ve been reading this site everyday for about a month or so now. I’ve never owned a property, but I’ve lived within my means and am saving up for a down payment for a house. I’m quite glad I found this site as I’ve learned:
1. I can really afford to wait
2. If I wait too long and “miss” an opportunity…well gee, I guess I can go on renting.
I have lots of newbie questions but I’ll be learning and absorbing…for the next year or two before I make my move.
Hi from Sweden. I found this site from the Slate article and wasted half a day at work reading through it. Fascinating stuff! The market in Stockholm is nowhere near as crazy as in California, but we’ll get caught in the fallout anyway.
Thanks for a great resource. Keep up the good work!
I’ve been lurking for about a year now after moving back from Chicago. I thought prices in Chicago (Lincoln Park) were high but the OC market is much worse.
Keep up the great work Irvine Renter. Thanks to you (plus a dad & a brother in the RE market) I will keep saving for the next several years and enjoy watching prices decline š
I’ve been lurking here for a few months now. IHB is my first read after coming home from work.
Kudos to IR, can’t wait for the book.
I love this blog! It has great graphics, visuals and pictures. The bloggers here are usually more professional than on the other ones I lurk (and laugh at). I love the way you tie in the music videos to the theme of the housing market, Irvine Renter. Most importantly though, I would like to thank you for the hope that you have given this 35 year old school teacher. It is nice to know that I soon will be able to buy a home at a reasonable price. All my life I have been a saver who has payed off debt (ie student/car loans) quickly. In this culture of seemingly endless indulgence by use of credit, I sometimes wondered why I maintained such prudence with my finances, and if it would ever pay off. I almost drank the Kool Aid in 2004. It is amazing to think that prices are now back at that level again, and dropping! Thanks Again! š
I live practically in Berkeley, and prices in neighborhoods worth living in either have remained very high and not declined nearly into affordability, or have simply kept increasing. This is true of East Bay neighborhoods as well as neighborhoods in San Francisco.
By “neighborhoods worth living in” I mean not putting yourself at risk from gun violence, and being close enough to public transportation to compensate for lack of parking.
Moving further out to purchase for more money is nonsensical given my current rent.
“Everybody says” SF peninsula is “immune” and so far, outside of a few neighborhoods (that gun violence thing), “everyone” is correct.
It’s disheartening at times.
can you elaborate on good neigborhoods in the city?
I’ve been lurking here for 6+ months and have learned quite a lot from this blog / forums.
My wife and I have owned a starter home in Oakcreek since 99 and looking to move up when the time / price is right.
Some highlights off the top of my head in no particular order:
– various analysis posts on the workings and pitfalls of creative mortgages.
– community profiles and photos of various villages / enclaves of Irvine.
– links to other sites of interests including calculated risk, redfin, monster munching blog.
– “money as debt” video link and awgee’s discussion on “Au”.
– “The MOST IMPORTANT POST ever” – seeing the mortgage meltdown in progress.
– bkshopper’s marketing research on Asians
– ISM’s mention of Settler park. My kids love that place, thanks.
Many thanks to IR and various other contributors that make this site so enjoyable and educational.
My husband and I love reading this blog…so entertaining and informative. Sometimes I can’t stop laughing about some of the things that are posted. We’ve been renting in Irvine for 3 years and waiting for the right time to buy, along with a lot of other people, which I was pleasantly surprised to discover. I’m glad we’re not the only ones in this boat. It sure felt like we were the only ones when my sister kept pressuring me to buy a house just because we have 2 kids. But ever since the whole subprime mess started, she hasn’t said anything again. Anyways, I’ll just say hi and thanks for posting the blogs, IR. š
Hi. Visit the site regularly and I have learned from the blogs and the discussions. Without knowing anything about re, I almost bought at the top in Vegas, and glad I didnt. The rent vs monthly payment just didnt make sense to me. I also couldnt figure out why one broker quoted $4k more than the other, so I was suspicious. Now I am waiting for further declines and want to purchase a condo in SM, but the prices are more stubborn here.
By the way, why am I called a lurker or troll? LOL. Kinda harsh name for someone observing a discussion/debate about a topic that one does not understand to learn.
Redondo Beach here – I enjoy IHB — so I keep getting all this Portola Springs email lately – Portola is your playground – oh please – I’ve yet to see a black person in any of the brochures.
Geez, itās probably been close to a year that Iāve been lurking ā¦ I mean reading ā¦ these posts! Theyāve been educational, entertaining, and most of all, have helped me keep my sanity. My husband and I have been waiting to buy for what seems like forever. I thought we were in a bubble back in 2003, and prices just continued to rise. Everyone thought I was crazy, and I was starting to wonder if they were right. It was a relief to find a community of like-minded people on this site.
I bought my first place in Burbank in 1989. Within 2-3 years I had lost my entire 20% down payment. The interest rate was around 10%, and I couldnāt refinance for years because I didnāt have enough equity. It was painful. I had lost all of my savings and with a hefty mortgage I couldnāt even afford to take a vacation. If I hadnāt put my life savings down on the place, would I have walked away? Iām sure I would have — just as Iām sure everyone with zero down financing and negative equity will eventually do.
Well, Iāve since relocated to San Jose and my condo in Burbank is now a rental (finally have a positive cash flow). Itās been a drag renting all these years, but I just couldnāt bear to go through that again. The drop in property values up here seems to be accelerating, particularly in the fringe communities. We actually saw an $800K house in Gilroy drop by $100K in one ārollbackā, and it wasnāt the first. Itās just amazing to watch this market unwind.
Anyway, a special thanks to Irvine Renter. I canāt wait to learn your true identity and hopefully read your new book. I know itāll be a best seller!
I came here on an Atrios link, I think, about six months ago, and this and calculated risk are my newest non-politics blogs for daily reading. Three thousnad miles away, I still use your info as food for thought while I watch a former colleague, who has lost her job try to sell her house (bought for 320, trying to sell for 380, but comps in the vicinity are 260). Thanks for the great daily posts!
Jprice
PS–I love open comments on a blog. One of the things that most pisses me off about, say, Glenn Greenwald’s move to Slate is that comments are only for registered users. That inconvenience is fatal for me.
Another daily lurker (native San Franciscan, now renting in Santa Monica). I followed a link from Kevin Drum’s site 4 – 5 months ago and am now a regular reader. I find the information here (and also at Calculated Risk) fascinating and informative — not only because I hope to purchase a house within the next few years, but also because it suggests that it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Will certainly purchase your book when it comes out.
Thanks!
delurking to say—I love this blog. One of the six or seven blogs that I check on a regular basis.
I’m a regular reader, and I even posted once or twice, though under a different name which I can’t remember. I’m an Irvine resident; purchased in Westpark (Aventura tract) in December 2005 – not quite at the peak price for my particular model, but darned close. Most days I don’t feel badly about my decision to purchase; I like my house, I was happy to escape from Ladera Ranch, and I’m not going anywhere anytime soon. Love this blog!
Outed lurker – re professional, former Irvine resident – moved South a freeway exit to Lake Forest and purchased a much-too-expensive house in Summer ’05. I enjoy your take on the market.
Another long-time lurker here. I remember coming across this blog a couple years back when I was looking at real-estate on line. The recent Slate article reminded me of it.
As a person with mortgages on two properties in Syracuse NY, reading this blog is like reading about life on the planet Mars. Fascinating and very foreign–$400K for a 1,200 sf condo? Bizarre. Then I go to the listings and see the satellite photos. I enlarge and enlarge them and all I see is more and more densely-packed homes sitting on top of densely packed homes and I keep thinking, who would want to live in the middle of all of that AND shell out 3K/mo for the privilege? Like I said, it’s both fascinating and foreign.
Here’s a home in the greater Syracuse area for $440K.
http://tinyurl.com/449gm9
What’s that? The best school district in the area for about 100 a square-foot? It’s not even the same planet.
Back to lurking….
Love the site.
Great for lurking.
I don’t live anywhere near Irvine, but was puzzled for years about how you Californians could afford to purchase houses on salaries that weren’t much (if at all) bigger than those in other parts of the country. IHB explained all that with really neat graphs and thorough analysis. I come back repeatedly just for reaffirmation that it wasn’t me who was crazy!
Been a lurker for about a year – sometimes add a comment. I’m a daily reader; between this blog & patrick.net (awesome collection of articles) & housingpanic.com (hysterical postings, but sometimes a little over the edge), I’ve learned about avoiding being a ‘knife-catcher’. Sold a condo in South OC in ’07 (but which had been purchased in ’90 & no HELOC withdrawals, so 350K profit) — post bubble, but still at a price that, within a year, will list for $100K less than my sales price. Parked the $$ in a 5% CD, where its just sitting. Have been renting in one of the ‘very special’ beach communities. My rent is actually higher than my former combined monthly P%I, taxes, HOA fees, but the condo development where I formerly owned is aging, falling apart & no longer in a thriving community. I’m still very glad I got out when I did, and that the new purchase I otherwise would have made never happened (new mortgage, BTW, in Ladera Ranch or Talega would have been even higher than my current rent in the fancy beach community). Now that I study these blogs daily, I’ll continue to check in with the collective wisdom. I’ve been most impressed with the financial backgrounds of alot of people who post comments, and get a sense that they seem to know what they’re talking about. Housingpanic.com covers alot of banking & global finance issues. Have definitely had eye-popping lessons there. I probably would have bought an amount of gold, but definitely had second thoughts, given alot of the chatter.
I think many of us are very grateful to you for taking so much time for this. It almost seems like its a full time job. And, best regards with respect to getting your book published! :coolsmile:
Hi, here’s califax from germany. Just in case I keep writing comments here – please excuse my lousy english. I might sometimes miss the right tune, rape english grammar or choose the wrong words. But I ain’t here to cause trouble. I’m just reading the blog. š
Another Lurker…
I mainly follow this site as I expect it to be earlier and more honest in its reporting of the next mortgage writedown wave than any mainstream media.
Having no mortgage and a lot of liquidity I see the current situation as an opportunity, although I am done with real estate for a while (except my own home).
For those who thought they had missed the home-ownership opportunity several years ago there will be some great opportunites this year and next. All it takes is patience, peserverence, financial honesty, a long term strategy, realistic expectations and ruthlessness at the right time to make real estate a great financial opportunity. Those who lacked these over the last decade are receiving their reward – in more than just the housing market.
Bananatree
Greetings… I’m a reader from Boulder, Colorado, in a neighborhood where 1000 sq. ft. houses are still being regularly bought for ~$400K, demolished, and replaced with 3000+ sq. ft. mansions (which are selling in the $1.5 million+ range). I have relatives in Orange County, and I also come from a family of ethical realtors. Enjoying the site on many levels.
-Rob.
not entirely lurking, I’ve made a few comments
Came here from the link in Slate. My husband and I live in the D.C. metro area and are saving up for a down payment finally after years of what I call “under-employment” of one or the other of us being in graduate school. Given that the prices started rising out of affordability two years before I got my PhD, it’s been a blessing in disguise to have to move from post doc to post doc in the years since so as to have avoided the permanency that would have prompted me to buy at exactly the wrong time.
This blog does an amazing public service by educating people as to the real value of real estate in a thorough, concrete and understandable manner. Regular news outlets still talk as if the problem is declining home prices, not the real issue of un-affordable housing.
What I’m most grateful for from this blog however is how much of a dent its made in rooting out the thoroughly in-grained beliefs about home ownership that NAR and the culture as a whole had built up in me over the years. The feeling of “if you don’t buy now you’ll be priced out forever” was the first one to go, as it was demonstably not true given the falling market, but it took reading IHB’s historical graphs of how slow past recoveries start up to truly get rid of that idea. The connections to all the various real estate myths such as “around here everyone is rich, that’s why prices are high” was a epiphanal moment for me. People really do say this shit. And in fact, that one? I’ve said that one. My next hurdle is getting past my lower expectations for reasonable housing in the northeast. It’s still hard for me to believe that condos will fall below rental parity, because it’s been so long that all I’ve set my expectations for in a first home buy is a 2-3 bedroom condo, preferably 2 stories. And prices near one metro station outside D.C. have reached within 10% of rental parity, making it hard not to buy now and be a knife catcher. But IHB is helping me keep my sanity, so that this summer when we have $50k saved and start looking I hold out for some place I truly feel I can call home for 5-10 years, and if I don’t find it, buck up to the fact that we’re going to have to move 2 years in a row and rent one more year (we HAVE to move to get shorter commutes, staying where we are now is NOT an option).
But I do wonder whether in the markets with smaller bubbles, if things will really fall as far as they “should”. I mean, if I, who read this blog daily, have a tough time getting rid of my preconceptions about real estate, the bulk of buyers in “hot” markets may never wake up.
Oh, and I think zillow needs to add a feature “make me buy” instead of make me move. Then I could list my requirements and price point and let some one offer me their house. Turn-about is fair-play right?
A little late to post but I’m a regular IHB lurker. Love IHB!!! Always a great topic of discussion among my wife and friends. Irvine renter please don’t ever stop writing.
I do have one question that I often ponder. What will happen when Irvine Renter buys a home?
Thanks to Irvine Renter and all who post such great stuff.
:cheese:
Costa Mesa lurker here.
I read the blog every day. Fortunately bought in 1999 and seem to be the only one I know that owns my house outright. It makes it a lot harder to take the plunge back into debt for the sake of more space. I have no sympathy whatsoever for the people that bought “stucco boxes” they couldn’t afford. The old adage is true: If it seems to good to be true, then it probably is.
Thanks Irvine Renter~ I’m waiting for my upgrade, on my own terms, thanks to you!