Out of Hell

The sirens are screaming and the fires are howling

Way down in the valley tonight

Theres a man in the shadows with a gun in his eye

And a blade shining oh so bright

Theres evil in the air and theres thunder in the sky

And a killers on the bloodshot streets

And down in the tunnel where the deadly are rising

Oh I swear I saw a young boy

Down in the gutter

He was starting to foam in the heat

Oh baby you’re the only thing in this whole world

Thats pure and good and right

And wherever you are and wherever you go

Theres always gonna be some light

But I gotta get out

I gotta break it out now

Before the final crack of dawn

Bat Out of Hell — Meatloaf



From the land of kool-aid, pretense, and noveau-riche nonsense, Turtle Ridge, we have a new race to the bottom, and they are going like a bat out of hell. This neighborhood first began to implode back in August when the credit crunch hit. We documented the troubles in the post Crimson and Clover. The property at 30 Crimson Rose went to auction at $1,400,000. Apparently the neighbors did not believe that was where the market stood for their houses. In their race to the bottom, they are almost there, and they still are not selling.

46 Crimson Rose Front 46 Crimson Rose Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,499,999IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $374,999

Downpayment Needed: $299,999

Purchase Price: $1,384,000

Purchase Date: 9/28/2005

Address: 46 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 3
Baths: 3.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,863
$/Sq. Ft.: $524
Lot Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary, Spanish
Year Built: 2005
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Hills
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S514390
Status: Active
On Redfin: 53 days

Gourmet Kitchen Award Dazzling ultra-luxury masterpiece perched on oversized lot in exclusive gated community of highly sought after Turtle Ridge. Dramatic curb appeal thanks to sharp contemporary styling. Remarkable entertainers floorplan complete w/ formal dining room, great room & guest house/casita. Magnificent European style gourmet kitchen w/ enormous granite island, slab countertops, full backsplash & breakfast nook. Huge master suite w/ retreat & lavish bath. Massive entertainers’ yard w/ fireplace. WOW!



This property has already been sold to the lender, they just don’t know it yet. On 2/28/2007, this owner refinanced for $1,425,000, and three months later, they opened a HELOC for $284,990. For the lender’s sake, let’s hope they haven’t taken all this money out and spent it. Assuming this seller gets their asking price and pays a 6% commission, they will need to come out-of-pocket $15,000 to avoid a short sale. Of course, if they spent the HELOC money, then they have a different problem…

47 Crimson Rose Front 47 Crimson Rose Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,699,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $424,750

Downpayment Needed: $339,800

Purchase Price: $1,647,000

Purchase Date: 1/25/2006

Address: 47 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 3
Baths: 3.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $586
Lot Size: 7,800 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean
Year Built: 2005
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S487879
Status: Active
On Redfin: 258 days

Unsold in 90+ days

One of the LARGEST LOTS in Ledges * * * * * * * * * 7800 feet * * * * * * PRIVACY PLUS * * * * with huge wrap around yards. This home has it all with hundreds of upgrades. Rod iron stair case, front door with iron, travertine floors, upgraded cabinets thru-out, Wolf range and upgraded thru builder master retreat!!Total turn-key home. CORNER LOT LOCATION. You will not be disappointed !!!!!!!!!!!!!

What is the deal with all the ALL CAPS, asterisks and exclamation points? I count 13 exclamation points to end the description.



These people have fallen $200,000 behind in the race to the bottom. At 258 days on the market, they don’t seem particularly motivated sellers. Perhaps the fact that any lowering of the price would make them lose money has something to do with their reluctance to lower it. I have news for them — they are more than $250,000 over market, and they are losing more every day !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Remember the property from the post Desperation? It appears that giving away the free Mercedes was not successful, and now they have reduced their price $200,000. Unfortunately, they are losing their race to the bottom, and they are already a rollback.

37 Crimson Rose Front37 Crimson Rose Inside

Asking Price: $1,799,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $449,750

Downpayment Needed: $359,800

Purchase Price: $1,860,500

Purchase Date: 12/12/2005

Address: 37 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 3
Baths: 3.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $620
Lot Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Mediterranean, Spanish
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): City Lights, Ocean, Panoramic
Area: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S495046
Status: Active
On Redfin: 209 days

Unsold in 90+ days

Rollback FORMER MODEL HOME with PANORAMIC CITY LIGHTS/OCEAN VIEWS!One of the BEST and highest view lots in The Summit at Turtle Ridge; Over $500K in designer upgrades; Provencial Style Home; Casita with Bath, custom hardwood flooring/wainscoating walls, faux paint, stone walls and stone flooring, spa-like master bath; covered loggia with outdoor fireplace.



This property is already underwater. If they get their asking price and pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $169,440, and the same house across the street asking $300,000 less, so I think this asking price is a bit too high. OK, it is a WTF, and these sellers are probably going to lose $500K.

Turtle Ridge — a little HELOC abuse, a stubborn seller praying for breakeven, and a desperate seller who is both overpriced and underwater. Another day in hell for those who want to leave…


BTW, if you didn’t see this great post at South OC Real Estate Tracker, go check it out. Let’s play…Match Game.

114 thoughts on “Out of Hell

  1. Genius

    $1.5 mil to have a house that looks just like your neighbors’. No thanks. Didn’t anyone build anything custom in Irvine, or all they all tract homes? The interiors seem nice, I suppose, but dayum that’s a lot of money for a little house.

    The bed in one of the pictures of 46 is awesome. I want it.

  2. ice weasel

    One might opine that these “higher end” sellers are the ones that could absorb a bit financial (as opposed to the poor schlub with the $400K house).

    Apparently ability isn’t the issue, it’s a matter of willingness.

    And while I am sure there are wonderful parts to this neighborhood, if that the area, yard and view that $1.5 buys in turd-dull ridge, I’ll pass. That’s not what I would consider to be a $1.5M area, yard or view. Not unless it was perched on a bluff overlooking the ocean (or say, Lake Tahoe).

    $524 per square foot is laughable.

  3. AZDavidPhx

    What were the original down payments on these houses?

    Can today’s sellers afford their own homes in “today’s market”?

  4. awgee

    “From the land of kool-aid, pretense, and neuvo-riche nonsense, Turtle Ridge, we have a new race to the bottom, and they are going like a bat out of hell.”
    My prediction: After the all is said and done and homes become affordable, IR’s career will have changed and he will be a full time writer/author.

  5. mav

    This part of the Irvine market is really interesting. There are not too many people currently living here who don’t already own a home who can afford these…… these are for people to live in, not invest in… the people selling are most likely selling because they can’t afford them. Their only hope is some executive transferred to Irvine with an attractive corporate subsidy… with equity loss provisions….. looks like they are all competing for a handful of such people.

  6. irvinesinglemom

    Meatloaf – yay, IR, great choice! I know it’s cheesy but I have always loved this guy’s music. And “For Crying Out Loud” is always guaranteed to give me goose bumps. “Bat out of Hell” is such a classic, and fits here perfectly.

  7. IrvineRenter

    You got me on that one. Fortunately, I am willing to correct my mistakes whereas the realtors tend to leave them for posterity.

  8. JoonB

    These models are going to be very hard to sell- essentially a 2 bedroom with 1 casita limits families to basically a family with 1 kid or someone without kids.

  9. AZDavidPhx

    It would be interesting to see how much of these sellers original down payments are going PFFF!

  10. AZDavidPhx

    By then, we will all be selling each other some other form of Tulip.

    You can start up the “Irvine Tulip Blog”.

  11. mav

    It’s hard to imagine anyone living in homes like these long term. The psychology of the type of people who can afford to live in these homes is to have the newest and nicest place. In this regard, I don’t think there is an emotional value to buying these homes versus renting. I think these types of communities will be absurdly transient over the next decade, even after the foreclosures are flushed out.

  12. Condor

    Hmmm…I can’t afford to buy these places, and I don’t think I really want to pay $4,500/month to rent them, or any place, without some type of white water views. But then I don’t live in Irvine, where people pay a lot of money renting for the convenience of being by the freeways, Spectrum, schools, jobs, etc. I still don’t understand it, but to quote Martha Stewart, maybe that’s a good thing.

  13. Alan

    Using a gross rent mutilplier of 200 for these properties gives a true market value of $900k. And that assumes they can find a willing renter to pay $4,500, the available renter pool thins out considerably after rents pass $3,000/month.

    You would have to be an insane idiot to buy at these prices. My crystal ball says expect these properties to drop back to $800-900k by 2011.

  14. mav

    I don’t understand it either…. but I don’t expect it to change…. there will always be a premium. Plenty of more affordable areas around Irvine that don’t reek of flat urban sprawl.

  15. William Jones

    This is what I do not understand. Who had the brilliant idea to build expensive homes with only two bedrooms? What is the point of that? Even if the second and third bedrooms are small it is still preferable to have three bedrooms than two bedrooms. It just seems so stupid to me. Even if the third bedroom is small, it still has a high level of utility – home office, guest bedroom, even storage space for all the junk people accumulate.

    Paying $700K or more for a small house is an insult. Paying that much for a house with only two bedrooms adds insult to injury!

  16. American-Screamer

    And what’s the deal with all the exclamation points..

    “I have news for them — they are more than $250,000 over market, and they are losing more every day !!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    Unless, of course, you were being facious.

  17. American-Screamer

    I drive the 73 occassionally and I see that some builder is putting up units across from TRidge on the other side of the Bonita Canyon Rd. Maybe 2 dozen or THs or SFH, don’t know. But I have to wonder what kind of wacked out builder would even attempt this right now?

    Also, I have noticed that the construction by Jamboree is going incredibly slowly, the windows on the high rise seem to frozen in place and I never actually see anyone working.

  18. Iblis

    For $1m+ I want 10 rooms, including a gift wrapping room, sewing room and craft room. Oh yeah, I want a pony too.

  19. awgee

    “You would have to be an insane idiot to buy at these prices.”
    “You would have to be an insane idiot to buy at these prices.”
    “You would have to be an insane idiot to buy at these prices.”

  20. surfing in newport

    My understanding is that those units are subsidized for UCI professors.

    The residential nature of the campus includes a
    subsidized housing community (University Hills)
    with more than 400 faculty homes, five
    educational/child-care centers for infants through
    kindergarten age children, an after-school program
    for K-6 children, and a laboratory elementary
    school on campus.

    (from a UCI job posting)

  21. Kim

    I think those are part of UCI’s addition to University Hills. They are building 92 homes for faculty and staff. From what I hear, at least some of them will be ready for a March move-in.

  22. skek

    The casita is one of the worst design innovations I’ve seen. You can’t put a kid in there — it’s separate from the rest of the house. There’s too much space wasted with closets and bathrooms, so it doesn’t make a good office. Despite their pretensions, these houses are too small to justify a live-in nanny. At best it’s a guest room or M-I-L quarters, but what guest wants to be banished to an outhouse? Every time we walk into a house with a casita, we groan. Terrible design.

  23. tealeaf

    If you’re looking for a good place to rent in Woodbury (under $3k for a 4br place in STM), check out this thread in the IHB forums.

    Sorry for the spam.

  24. Land of Delusion

    “Rod iron stair case”

    You think they meant “WROUGHT iron staircase”?

    For such a significant upgrade, you’d think they would IRON out that detail.

  25. Stupid

    Yep. Why pay that when for $408 sq./ft. can get 5 bedrooms and 5.4 baths in 3050 sq. ft for $1,245,000 in Quail Hill?


    143 Weathervane
    Irvine, CA 92603
    Price: $1,245,000
    Buy with Redfin and Save $24,900*
    Beds: 5
    Baths: 4.5
    Sq. Ft.: 3,050
    $/Sq. Ft.: $408
    Lot Size: 4,212 Sq. Ft.
    Type: Single Family Residence
    Style: Mediterranean
    Year Built: 2004
    Stories: Two Levels
    View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain
    Area: Quail Hill
    County: Orange
    MLS#: S519568
    Status: Active
    On Redfin: 3 days

    Rare chance to obtain one of the best quality homes in one of the best new areas of Irvine, near Irvine Spectrum. This is tremendous value for such a large home and great location. REO: Real Estate Owned by a Regulated Institution direct sale.

  26. FairEconomist

    No race to the bottom yet. They’re all still asking 2005 prices. This is just a bunch of delusional sellers.

  27. caliguy2699

    Thanks for the link. I’ve repeatedly found the last RE downturn to be very interesting to study, since many of the same predictions, issues and factors are all back in play again today.

  28. IrvineRenter

    That is why I liked your post so much. People need to realize none of this is new. It is not different this time.

  29. tenmagnet

    No kidding, never heard of Meatloaf, but the Bob character was very funny. BTW, Do not talk about “fight club”.

  30. ipoplaya

    Adjustable mortgage rates dropped a big chunk thanks to the boys at the Fed. Long/fixed rates, stuck in the mud…

    I’m about ready to lock me up a 3/1 interest-only refi at 4.5%. Just need an eighth of a point improvement. A big sell-off in stocks would be nice right about now.

  31. American-Screamer

    Ah. Yes, a former UCI grad, I should have known. Interesting thing about UCI prof homes is that they only get 3-4% appreciation which would actually be great now, but I remember my prof grumbling that his “house” wasn’t appreciating the rest of the area and that he was essentially stuck with UCI in his home. Not sure that is entirely true but made some sense since it is UCI land afterall.

  32. tonye

    Meatloaf. ;-D

    We walked through the models in this neighborhood years ago and we thought the layout was ridiculous. Besides, they have a two car garage only and despite the depth of some of these lots, the homes are packed tight.

    The view behind will be contentious going forward if some neighbor below the hill in another HOA decides to let their trees grow tall.

    And, only a three bedrooms with a tiny living room and a lot of wasted space inside.

    These homes are all sizzle and little meat. As family homes they don’t cut it and as entertainment homes they are too small.

    Perhaps a single guy might use the den as a stereo room with a big set of speakers to crank out Meatloaf with the volume knob set at 11 o’clock?

    But then, the homes are too tight and who wants to have a kitchen from the far wall of your Genesis towers? And everytime your buddies turn on the margarita blender your Krell Amps will brownout and your Linn table will slow down.

    Naw… these homes were a triumph of marketing into a bubble, but otherwise they are nonsensical. They do not offer enought bedrooms.

    My gut feeling is that these homes will drop well below their original selling pride and their fadish Italianate design will age just as Westpark did.

    (Oh!.. that’s so 80s…. Oh! that’s so Y2K..)

    I’ll go on a limb. These homes will bottom at under 400 per square foot.

  33. tonye

    You really think that long term rates will be lower in three years?

    Aren’t you playing with fire with an interest only loan?

  34. Alan

    Market value based on asking rent of $4500/month is $320/sq foot. I don’t think your out on a limb at below $400 per sq foot, I think your not even in the ballpark yet for the bottom.

  35. IE_Priced_Out

    I don’t really care about prices in the OC… can’t really buy even a mobile home really. Me and my gal both went to college, have decent jobs (im a hs teacher and she’s an auditor), earn over 90k per year combined, and can’t buy anything even in the IE. Hahaahah.. wow… American dream my ass. Wow, bitter me. We’re renting a one bedroom apartment, paying off our student loans (we don’t have rich parents). We were looking for a home in the IE, the realtor told us for first time buyer “look near the UCR area… oh my god… gangs.. and gangs… and more gangs.. lol.. what do I know.. im just some 25 years old loser… hahahaha. cant even afford to buy in Riverside. What.. they all make 200k a year ??? (as a teacher, my cap is 80k) hahahhaahah.. anyone can help me get a 200k job ?? become a realtor?

  36. 25w100k+

    Its funny, these have views, yet their price per sq ft is WAY below what Shady Canyon is asking.

    I certainly think the houses look nicer there though. But can the build quality really justify that much of a premium over these places?

  37. 25w100k+

    I have a feeling houses in the IE are going to come down even more then they will in Irvine. Watch for another 30% drop and keep saving for a down payment.

    I’d assume you can get a smaller detached condo for 400k right now in the IE, no? It’ll get to 300 before long.

  38. skek

    400K for a condo in the IE? You can get a SFR in Redlands (which is NOT Riverside) for under $350k, even under $300k. And that’s list price — knock off 10-20% for the sale.

    Although you are right — they will continue to decline.

  39. tonye

    I think the asking rent and wide availability for rent right now reflects an element of panic and desperation.

    Going forward, once the market settles down these homes will seldom be available as rentals. Thats’ why I think these homes will eventually settle for 1.2 MIL.

    That will make them comparable in price per sq. foot with similar homes in TR with a view ( those homes are similar in size but have 4d/3ba, 3 car garage and FAR better packaging ).

    Homes in the better areas always reflect that in their pricing.

  40. Alan

    I shook my head at all home prices after 2000 as WTF. I think were going to go back to 98-99 pricing 5 years from now when all is said and done. Irvine doen’t have large numbers of high paying jobs and industry to support this nonsense. Google’s headquarters aren’t here. Sure you have Toshiba systems but how much is that. In my opinion, the economy has been a lot of smoke and mirrors up till now and the glasses are about to come off. I’ll bet these properties drop down to as low as $750K.

    In my book, $750k is an still an awfull lot of money, people seem have forgotten that little fact.

  41. Alan


    I’m with Tonye on this one, while no-one really knows where interest rates are going, I’d put my money 3 to 1 that rates 4 years from now will be much higher than what you’d get locking in a 30 year note today.

  42. ipoplaya

    Heck, most likely we’ll be buying before the end of 2008, or at the very latest 2009. I’m just getting a new loan to protect me a little against my rate reset in August. Although, with the 1-year CMT down to 2.3% now, and probably headed down at least another 50 bps, my reset would be to 5.05 or lower. Going to a 3/1 at 4.50% is probably unncessary, but just in case we end staying in our current house for a couple more years and short rates shoot up in late 2008 or 2009 I should probably do it. I fully expect the majority of the depreciation in home prices to occur over the next 36 months…

    With regards to the I/O, I’d rather put that $500/month that we’ve been paying into principal into the the wife’s 403b plan and catch the tax break. Why not save more on a tax deferred basis if you can?

  43. Priced_Out_IT_Guy

    Hang on man and keep paying down your debt and saving for your down payment. I’m in the same position as you are at 26. If professionals like us can’t afford the cost of living, either the cost of living has to come down, or we need to move the hell out of California (many of my professional and financially minded friends already did in ’05-’06).

    I am thoroughly convinced that if we wait the storm out for a few years we will be able to pick up a nice socal home on our salaries because people like us are what really support the housing market in the long run.

  44. CapitalismWorks

    Shady Canyon is its own animal. Its not just the build quality that differentiates the two areas.

    1) Gate with a guard, not one of the garage door opener things
    2) Private golf course (exclusivity)
    3) large lots (by Irvine standards)
    4) large setback (by Irvine and Newport standards) to ensure that you can’t shake hands with you neighbor out the living room window.
    5) All single loaded lots, creating a feeling of space, improving views, and increasing the cost (you are paying for someone to not live across the street)

    That said, Shady Canyon is exceedingly expensive. I marvel that these homes can command prices similar to ocean view properties. Then again have you seen the home prices in the nice communities in Palm Desert. Talk about absurd.

    The very high end of the market has held up far better than all other sectors. I am not sure if that is sustainable. My gut tells me its not.

  45. ipoplaya

    Totally agree Alan. Rates 3-4 years from now will probably be much much higher.

    I’ll be in a different home between now and then though so paying a premium for a 30-year fixed is not in my best financial interest. I don’t want to be a landlord so there is a 0% chance I hold my place longer than a few years.

  46. IrvineRenter

    I will add my 2 cents worth: Interest rates will very likely rise, and although their may be some benefit in the short term, the long term outlook would suggest locking in a long-term fixed rate mortgage. What Assuming you have a low enough loan balance, I would invite you to consider refinancing at a fixed rate with cost of ownership fitting under a 160 GRM. This would allow you to either sell the place in a few years or keep it as a rental and know you are at least breaking even. You will pay more over the next 3 years, but it will give you the option of keeping the property 3 years from now rather than being forced to sell when you will need to refinance. As it stands now, you are limiting yourself to selling and moving to a new property in 3 years. If you refinance with a long-term fixed mortgage, you will have 3 options: sell and move as you plan, stay in the house longer, or keep it as a rental. The additional flexibility has value.

  47. shhhhh

    A little OT, I’m enjoying the new font that Redfin is using. Much more pleasing to the eye. Anyone else notice?

  48. Alan

    If your only planning on staying put for 3-4 years, why are you in a deprectating assest. You need to sell and rent!

  49. tenmagnet

    Actually, I’m a fan of the casita for the exact reasons you mentioned.
    It makes for a nice guest room while restricting access to the main house.
    Not like I’m Howard Hughes, but I value my privacy and would not want my guests staying/sleeping over in the main house.
    Mille Fleurs in Woodbury offers an excellent home with a casita, if it weren’t for the high price, I’d be a buyer.

  50. ipoplaya

    Refinancing today into a 5.875% 30-year interest only would mean a total monthly spend of approximately $2500 on interest, taxes, hoa, and insurance. I pulled $100K off our HELOC last week that is now sitting in cash. The total of the refi would be for $375K…

    Toss in maintenance of at least a couple hundred per month and the spend is more like $2700-2800. That is exactly equal to current rental prices so it would be a break-even on a cashflow basis at that interest rate and current rent rates. As there is a possibility rents could head down, it very well could be a net loser each month on a cashflow basis… Couple that with the fact that I would have to finance more on the move-up house because I have left equity in my current home, the potential for negative monthly cashflow becomes even greater.

    If long-term fixed rates got closer to 5% I might think about holding it as a rental. The problem is that with jumbo rates so high any dollars left stranded and not applied to a new home, cost inordinately more. I just don’t think the economics are there. Leaving $100K stranded in my current home would cost me $400 per month on my move-up house mortgage. Even going with a 5% 30-year I/O and a sell/rent scenario, it might be just only be a wash…

    I will have obtained a nice long-term mortgage, but exchanged that for a rent rate risk and all the time and energy involved in managing a rental. If I can’t make a handy profit for absorbing that risk and extra work, why do it?

  51. ipoplaya

    That’s been well chronicled here on the IHB. My wife would rather lose the equity vs. selling, moving and renting. She is in love with home ownership…

  52. Alan

    Having done the renting thing, I would advise against it. Too much work.

    If you stay three years your wife will be too nested and you will be stuck and then get a cabin in Mammoth instead of trading up. I’d buck up now and fix the interest rate to take yourself out of the refinancing game three years from now.

  53. ipoplaya

    Question re: mortgage rates. I get that fixed rate mortgages are tied more to long bond yields… With a likely 50 bps cut coming from the at the next meeting, should I expect that shorter term mortgages, say the 3/1 and 5/1 ARMS, should be at lower rates come March? I assume the ARMs are tied to CMT rates but don’t know for sure.

  54. Alan

    Your asking the wrong person, I’d be guessing here.

    All I know is that long term interest rates are tied to percieved risk and future expectations. If AMBAC and the bond insurers go under, lenders loose their shirts and to compensate will demand higher rates to percieved long term risk and to recover losses. Short term fed action doesn’t affect long term rates. 3 years from now long term rates could easily be back up to 8%, the OC economy in the tank and you could be looking back at that 5.75 fixed thinking, *^”! should have taken it.

  55. ipoplaya

    That’s why I’ll buy bigger between now and then. Let houses depreciate another 20% or so and still be able to finance with a long-term mortgage in the 6’s…

  56. tonye

    Are you sure? Some of those homes are really crowded and I think I saw some attached homes there too.

  57. tonye

    I guess I don’t understand what Irvine’s job situation has to do with the price of homes in Irvine.

    Most people I know live in Irvine but work elsewhere.

    Everyday, as I leave the City, I see a lot of folks coming into Irvine to work. So I would say that if there are less jobs in Irvine, then Corona, Riverside, Tustin, Santa Ana, etc… are gonna be hosed.

    Jobs are regional. So, just because those RE mortage companies based in Irvine went south and took their jobs with them it doesn’t mean (1) that all their employees lived in Irvine and (2) people working in Huntington Beach, LA, etc.. will be affected.

    Only when you have region wide work problems will you see price pressure due to job losses.

  58. tonye

    The reason for La Casita is that El Zorro needs a place that he can get in and out fast whenever Los Federales come up the arroyo.

  59. tonye

    IR- Time to start mining some “hippie music:”

    How about The Grateful Dead?

    Slipknot ( an instrumental trip )
    Going down the Road Feeling Bad
    Casey Jones
    Friend of the Devil

    Dude, we’re talking a treasure trove. And the Irvine cops chased them out from the Irvine Meadows on account of “those dopers”.

    Hell, I think what the Deadheads were smoking was a hell of a lot mellower than the stuff that a lot of folks were shooting between ’03 and ’06.

    Well, it’s back to listening to hippie music. Does wonders at work. 😉

  60. mmg

    Irvine is different :mrgreen:

    Get pounded it will, I agree with Alan, they will drop to around 750k if not lower.

    for 1 mil you can get a brand new house in San juan capistrano, nicer layout, ocean view, and use the toll road to get to irvine, will cost about 150 per month to use the 73.

    Irvine was a bubbe city, a product of the bubble. sure it will be more expensive than other places but watch out below.

  61. squareround

    Hi, Irvinerenter,

    Can you find out what happened to thei house in quailhill.

    143 Weathervane, Irvine, Ca.

    It was sold at 1.45 million on 01/15/2008. Now it was asking for 1.25 million. It is strange.


  62. tonye

    No. Every where was a bubble. Irvine is not different.

    San Juan is cheaper, always has been, because it’s a longer drive. And even then, there are very expensive homes there too.

    Besides, SJC is a far smaller city too. You’re numbers are anecdotal.
    Besides, that home in SJC at 1mil will be worth like 600K in two years too. I’ve seen that happen before and surely it will happen again.

  63. 25w100k+

    Almost positive there aren’t attached homes in Shady. They are not all custom though, some are tract homes. I believe Taylor Woodrow built there.

  64. CapitalismWorks

    Looking on Redfin the answer is no. I seems to remember some smaller tract units being put during the build out. These are the Villas. Checking with google these homes range in size from 4000-5500 sq ft. and are definitely not attached.

  65. ipoplaya

    Square, read the MLS description on Weathervane:

    “Rare chance to obtain one of the best quality homes in one of the best new areas of Irvine, near Irvine Spectrum. This is tremendous value for such a large home and great location. REO: Real Estate Owned by a Regulated Institution direct sale.”

    The 1/15/08 transaction was the property going back to the lender. Now its owned by the bank and they are selling it…

  66. ipoplaya

    Why in the world anyone would pay well over $1M for 3000sf on a 4200sf lot that close to the 405 is totally beyond me…

  67. muffdaddy

    It’s an REO – bank owned. I presume the lender (or one of them) repoed the house in some manner (auction?) and now wants to get rid of it.

  68. awgee

    It seems like a good sign that the lender is willing to take an immediate and realistic $200,000 hit immediately upon listing. It doesn’t seem like too long ago that REO was being listed for more than amounts owed.
    Wait for blood in the streets.

  69. muffdaddy

    So the $1.45 Mil price was the full amount the former owner paid back whenever he/she bought the house? I suppose the owner could have put down $200k in equity and the bank would be breaking even on the sale minus closing costs – Nah.

  70. mmg

    I agree with you about SJC falling that much, but so will Irvine (40% as you mentioned) is my point.

    I just used SJC as an example as I just toured some of the new homes in SJC, around 3000 sf, nice layouts. I agree its far away but if you are buying in that price range 600-1000k, then you are making somewhere between 200-300k and can afford the toll road. still, I expect those home will fall to the 600-700k range. those new communities were like ghost towns, one site was closed till the spring, the other site had only 2 employes for the whole thing as opposed to many more people last year(iirc, they had a few in the sales office and about 4-5 in each of the three models).

    Irvine is a very nice city, but there are many other nicer cities, as safe, with nicer homes within 15-20 minute drive to irvine.

  71. Kim

    True, they get a small appreciation rate, the point of which is to keep the houses affordable for the next set of UCI buyers. They also get to tack onto the selling price the full cost of any renovations they’ve done.

    Your professor is right about UCI being in his home forever, but that probably didn’t bother him when UCI offered him a house for a below-market price, the UC mortgage program gave him a mortgage at a below-market interest rate, and his department gave him considerable down payment assistance as part of his employment package. And then he also wanted to make a boatload of money on the house?

  72. Boston2TheBay

    irvine meadows 88. First show. Walked across the strawberry fields through old lion country safari after parking off moulton. I’ll never forget it.

    If this was an L.A. blog you’d have the obvious choice: West L.A. Fadeaway.

  73. ipoplaya

    I’m not going to argue with her too hard… She gets up in the middle of the night to tend to the baby when he cries, does a full day of work to bring home her nearly $80K, and trieds to make dinner most nights. If she wants to own a darn home, we’re going own a darn home!

  74. Law_Student

    This is my favorite neighborhood to watch for implosion.
    This area is guaranteed a massive drop in value.

    I just know that it is filled with pretentious assholes as well.
    All the better.

  75. Lost Cause

    Forget the beach areas, forget the west side. Irvine takes the cake when it comes to insane real estate prices. This is an ordinary tract home, nothing more.

  76. tonye

    Thing is that even when they implode the SFHs will still go for about 1MIL because the area is desirable ( great views ) and there are not that many homes.

    Of course, as the pendulum swings, the bottom of the market may see lower prices, but, I think TRidge will be out of the doldrums much sooner than Northpark and every out there.

    Stilll two years or so, though. When was the last new home sold? ’06? Then we gotta wait until the last 100LTV three year adjustable resets. And that would be around 09 plus six months for the REO.

  77. tonye

    Yeah…. OC is beginning to sound more like Lou Reed:

    You hit me with the flower
    You hit me every hour
    You’re so vicious

  78. tonye

    Ay Caramba Maria!

    Chu never tohld mee dat chour Mamacita was mooveeng with us!

    OK, wee put mamacita en La Casita.


  79. tonye

    Yes, yes, yes…. but this post is talking about a home in Turtle Ridge. In this part of OC, you don’t have that many hill homes with city views. You got TRidge and Turtle Rock with outstanding city views ( some of TR also has ocean/Catalina views ). Then you got those homes in the hills behind Tustin (Cowan and Lemon Heights) and Anaheim Hills.

    And that’s it. I don’t count the stuff north of the 91 like Yorba Linda and Fullerton as that’s a different country pretty much.

    So many of the homes in TRidge do have fantastic views of the mountains and still are close to the ocean.

    When people start to talk about about Irvine in general they need to understand that the City is actually pretty large and generalizations fail because the villages are actually quite distinct.

  80. Lost Cause

    Funny how the top of the market gets hammered the hardest, and prices get much closer to the rest of the market. People on this blog are way too optimistic. It is different this time. Things went up a lot higher, so they will fall a lot farther.

  81. ex-Tangelo

    Some financial media:

    New Debit Card Borrows Against 401k
    The director of Reserve Solutions says there are a number of advantages to the program including:
    * Young contributors are more likely to open accounts, knowing they can access the money in an emergency
    * Since people can withdraw as they need, Reserve Solutions says its clients take out 35% less than traditional 401ks


    Repaying a loan with after tax dollars and getting taxed on that same dollar when you withdraw at retirement, costs you $0.48 of each borrowed dollar.

    Or, you could get a Roth 401k or a Roth IRA. Contributions may be withdrawn tax-free.

  82. ex-Tangelo

    I’ve only ever seen one “outbuilding” and it was brilliant. It was a converted free-standing 2-car garage with a room over it. The downstairs was used by the previous owner as a dance studio, so it had a hardwood floor. The upstairs was used by the new owner’s life partner to paint in.

  83. ex-Tangelo

    Don’t panic. All those other people who got homes are mortgaged to their eyeballs. And just think, you could have been one of the people Irvine Renter features on this site.

    I lived in Irvine in my 20’s in the early 1990’s, was priced out of real estate in the middle of a boom, then wham, the Peace Dividend crushed So Cal housing market. Actually I didn’t even buy a house then, I waited, rented, saved for another 11 years. Especially the saving part. You’ll need it.

    Estimated median household income in 2005: $82,827 (it was $72,057 in 2000)
    Irvine $82,827
    California: $53,629

    Estimated median house/condo value in 2005: $683,400 (it was $316,800 in 2000)
    Irvine $683,400
    California: $477,700

    Median gross rent in 2005: $1,528.

  84. tonye

    I base my claim because of sheer numbers. There will be possibly a couple of thousand homes for sale on the East part of Irvine while at most there may be a few tens in TRidge.

    It will be down to supply and demand in this case. And I wager that there will be enough buyers when these homes it the 1MIL price point.

    After all, these homes, as idiotically designed for a family as they are, are otherwise perfect for a childless couple or a “downsizing” couple or a even a single. They have a really good location and a great view. And the small yards mean that your gardener won’t be too expensive.

  85. tonye

    OK… there’s a myth.

    When you’re working that dollar is getting taxed at almost 42% or 33%. Let’s say that after your other deductions you are still facing the 28% fed and 9% state rates, or worse.

    Once you retire, your income should be far lower. You should have paid off your mortgage and your kids are off the house. So, you money needs are lower.

    Hence, that dollar will be taxed at perhaps 28%.

    And this all assumes that the money you borrow is to spend. What about borrowing to “hedge” your 401K principal? What if your options are so bad that you see that your principal is gonna go down? So by borrowing you lock yourself into paying yourself a positive dividend. Sure it may not be great, but it’s positive even after paying taxes.

    Much better that watching your 401K principal go down because your plan options are loaded by Wall Street types -“that know better than you because they’re professionals”- with all kinds of toxic CDOs?

  86. American-Screamer

    I was there…I was there!!
    I remember mobs of people running up the back slope of the Amplitheater (sp) and jumping the fence…We actually camped for the three shows in the parking lot. Insane.

    Brokedown Palace or China Doll.

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