Home Sales Data thru 9-24-2007

Median sale price

Sales volume



Prev. 4 weeks

% change

 from ’06

Prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06









































43 thoughts on “Home Sales Data thru 9-24-2007

  1. No_Such_Reality

    On the brightside, it’s only a 28% slowdown from August.

    I wonder if October will slow another 28%.

  2. lawyerliz

    I get peeved because I check in for my moringing blog fix, and there are no postings. Duh, you are 3 hours behind!!

    Sales are up where the prices are down the most.

    Looks like you guys are approaching Miami-Dade’s drop off in sales.

    The honest realtor I referred to in previous postings got a listing that she’d gotten before. The owner had reduced the price $11,000. BFD.
    Anyway, I said she should reduce it more. She said prices on the exact same units varied from $165 to $300,000. Normally, you’d think the 165 was trashed, but this didn’t occur to either of us. I was speechless.
    The 165 wasn’t selling either. So what could she reduce it to?

    She could beat up on the seller to reduce it maybe another 10 grand to
    269. But 165?

    I think the bottom is here, and maybe overshot at 165.

    Remember we don’t make money like you do out west, tho many Cubans are wealthy. (They are the most successful immigrant group ever, making it up to parity with the rest of the population in half a generation.) They are willing to cut corners and take risks, and do what you have to do. (See the new soap Cain, actually quite accurate,
    as to Cuban family life and mores, excepto they don’t ususally hire killers to dispose of annoying people.)

    Lest you wonder, I am Irish and German and a lot of other stuff.

  3. No_Such_Reality

    “I think the bottom is here, and maybe overshot at 165.”

    In Miami-Dade? As a condo? Doubt it. $165K is the start.

    More importantly, in 2006, Miami-Dade had a 13% vacancy rate and they’re still building condos. From 2000, that’s a 50% increase in the amount of vacant units.

    Rents in condos are going to collapse. When you look at craigslist for Miami, you see all sorts of craziness for rents. Then you see the reality sprinkled in, 3/2 condos for $1050. The rest are all just wishing trying to cover their mortage. With high HOAs, they’re worth even less. To cashflow, they’re need sub-100 pricing.



  4. Irvine Soul Brother

    I can just imagine some of my favorite realtors who work 92603 spinning the recent numbers. Telling people how the median price was in the seven figures and conveniently ignoring sales volume (not to mention the glut of inventory at the lower end which isn’t selling now).

    Wouldn’t an interesting statistic be a comparison of %age of what sold that was actually on the market between 2006 and 2007? I’m sure this statistic would also see impressive drops.

    In 92603, I suspect it is some of the “Cubs” that have bought. Who are they you ask? The little bears, the ones who were willing to wait a little bit on the sideline and believe the worst is over. A little pressure from wifey who’s sick of renting also probably encourages the buying process. I think that even in the joe sixpack realm, the feeling is that a drop has taken place. “How long is the sale gonna last, honey! We need to buy now!” Whoops.

    Soul Brother’s a grizzly.

  5. Bill Jones

    Irvine Renter-

    Is there any way you could add a “total” line at the very bottom of the table? Thanks

  6. steve

    92603 is a joke. it’s filled with Newport Beach wanna be’s, all trying like crazy to ‘appear’ rich. very sad.

  7. tonye

    92603 is schizophrenic right now.

    The realtors working TRidge are indeed the bearers of very bad news.

    The realtors working Shady Canyon are in a different tier. Yes, the prices have dropped, but they are mostly dealing with people with cash.

    The realtors in TR are dealing with very few sellers. Prices have dropped somewhat, but since they weren’t so hyped and since it’s an older, more established community you don’t have that huge percentage of HELOC and ARM hell.

    I did see a number of “for sale” signs two sundays ago in TR. A number that you would normally associate with spring. But it ain’t like the deluge you see driving around TRidge.

  8. tonye

    See my response above before you open your mouth ( or unknowingly type a value judgment that is ridiculous in its ignorance).

  9. tonye

    I think the Miami market is getting ready for Castro’s death. As soon as we open the border with Cuba you’ll see a new influx of Cubans and they will need some place to live.


  10. lawyerliz

    This is a townhouse condo, not those highrises that are crashing and burning. Townhouse condos here tend to hold their value at a rate somewhere inbetween SF homes and high or midrise apts.
    Townhouse condos are only medium overbuilt and there are not scores of projects coming on line either.

    The landlords I do evictions for don’t seem to be thinking they have to lower their rents. In fact, they are thinking of raising their rents to take into account all those people who would have bought and now can’t or won’t. Most of the evictions I do are actually SF houses with small mtges, or no mtges which are a source of positive cash flow for older people. One I’m just starting is a young guy who can’t afford the payments, and the tenant is a simgle mom who thinks we can’t kick her out. Hah.

    One repeat customer has a small apt building near the airport, which was paid off long ago, and even the customer thinks the rent should be low because of the noise and plane fumes.

    Castro has, in effect, died. His bro, Raul, actually seems to be doing a slightly better job of running the country, tho he is said to be somewhat more murderous than Fidel. He has made some tentative loosening efforts, undercut by Fidel and Fidel’s supporters.

    As to another Mariel boatlift, upon Fidel’s or Raul’s death, or other fall of the regime, I think there will be a window of opportunity to leave, and then the regime here will realize that Cuba is just another poverty stricken country, and start to treat the immigrants the same as all the other said South American countries.

    Of course, you have the effect, somewhat like the Jewish, Israel effect, of a country assuming ‘way more importance than it otherwise would have because of the powerful wealthy people here who come from there.

    Anyway, most of those people won’t be buying 150,000 condos anytime soon much less 300 or 400,000. condos.

    The more interesting question is how the Cubans here have kept their Cuban land titles and will want to kick the (to their point of view) squatters out. Or, buy the country back with American dollars, which, even depreciated, are worshiped by Cubans in Cuban.

    By the way, people are continuing to sneak out; I know some, tho they are very close mouthed about how they got here. And not on boats either.

    Sorry this was so long. The muse was upon me.

  11. lawyerliz

    Cubans never say ole!

    They say AAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYY very loudly.

    Or, comemierda.

    Or, a phase which is so dirty in English, I hesitate to type it in Spanish, but which equates to dang.

  12. ocrebel

    another 2005 buyer in TR with a big loss:

    71 Canyoncrest IRVINE CA 92603
    Sale History
    08/09/2007: $685,000
    10/28/2005: $735,000

  13. 92603

    TR wishing for a $1,000,000 gain in less than 6 years


    Price: $1,899,900
    2 Rimrock
    Irvine, CA 92603
    Beds: 5
    Baths: 3
    Sq. Ft.: 3,300
    $/Sq. Ft.: $576
    Lot Size: 0.46 acres
    Type: Single Family Residence
    Style: Other
    Year Built: 1977
    Stories: Two Levels
    View(s): Hills
    Area: Turtle Rock
    County: Orange
    MLS#: S504706
    Status: Active
    On Redfin: 20 days

    Sales History
    Date Price Appreciation
    02/28/2002 $850,000
    10/09/1992 $700,000

  14. Major Schadenfreude

    “In 92603, I suspect it is some of the “Cubs” that have bought. Who are they you ask? The little bears, the ones who were willing to wait a little bit on the sideline and believe the worst is over.”


    “Soul Brother’s a grizzly.”

    I hear that my soul brotha of anotha motha! Me too!

  15. Patience

    I looked for the cheapest properties in Turtle Ridge a couple week back. Nice big condos, but no view, nothing really special. Almost $1,000,000. Why would anyone who could afford that consent to live in that limited space?

  16. JoonB

    I saw that house last Sunday at an open house. It’s all “upstairs” living- the downstairs basically has no family room. They built a loft on the second floor. And then of course the fact that the lot size is huge- but you go there, and it’s all up-slope, so it’s useless. That house is a joke.

  17. lawyerliz

    Absolutely not, tho I understand that you shouldn’t ever
    use the word madre in Mexico, because a simple madre means “mutha-f****r”

    Nothing wrong with hija or hijo anywhere I know of.

  18. anteaterscientist

    Off topic – what is The Great Park about?

    Is The Great Park going to be built where the orange helium balloon (1.9 million) is currently located?

    Any thoughts??

  19. 92603Renter

    I loved 92603 when we moved here (location, location, location). But the attitude in a good majority of the people I meet here makes me want to move out. I’m glad I’m renting.

  20. Joe

    Normally I just enjoy the dialogue here and don’t post, but it’s comments like this that bug me. Just last post you say “There never was a “High End” east of the 405 in Irvine.”

    But now you’re calling someone ignorant for making a negative comment about what I’m guessing is your own neighborhood. Somewhat hypocritical if you ask me…

  21. Also92603

    Really? I’ve ecountered a few (ex. 3 discussing their new hardwood stereo cabinet upgrades who ignored me as soon as they found out I was a lowly renter 🙂 ), but mostly people seem pretty nice.

    Of course, that could just be because I’m Asian and moved from a mostly white area (where you get the racist snub) to an area with a lot more Asians …

  22. Sue

    Can These Mortgages Be Saved?


    But borrower advocates who work with a broad array of lenders say that none make it harder to modify loans than Countrywide, the nation’s largest mortgage originator and loan servicer. Countrywide deploys a 2,700-member unit, called the HOPE Team, that it says helps borrowers modify their loans and hold onto their homes. HOPE is an acronym for “Helping homeowners, Offering solutions, Preventing foreclosures and Envisioning success,” but some Countrywide borrowers say the company’s practices have left them hopeless.

  23. tonye

    I assume that you mean “hijo de puta”? It’s not nice but not so bad in Castilian. Even Cervantes used it in Don Quijote:

    “hide puta”

    In medieval Castilian, “hijo de” (son of) was often shortened to “hide”

    I dunno much about Mexico even though I live in SoCal… they get upset about strange things, like “pendejo” and “buey”.

    Now “cabron”… now that’s a different story.

    Besides, all of those high rise condos en Meeahmee soon will be so cheap that they will become nice projects for the influx of post Castro cubans.

    “come mierda”…. what an uncivilized thing to say.

  24. tonye

    Nope…. my own neighborhood is TR, not TRidge nor Shady Canyon.

    And, although I sort of agree with the Newport Wannabe comments, this actually applies to all of Newport Coast. Us old timers remember when all we had was TR and Corona del Mar linked by a fun two way road with a trash dump in between.

    If anything, the ignorant comment was yours. Because the truth is that as Irvine is laid out, the interesting geoghaphical areas are West of the 405 and now in Portola too. The rest is as flat as it gets. Hence, the “high rent” district has always been on the hills (ergo TR) and the few homes around the lake in Woodbridge.

    Now, since I’ve lived in Irvine for more than 20 years, and as many of my neighbors moved in in ’69 when this was just part of the county, I guess my institutional memory of Irvine is deeper and broader than most. Eh?

    Never have the homes East of the 405 matched the prices West. Only during the last bubble did you see new homes outstrip prices in an absurd race to the top. This happened both East and West. The established villages did not experience such a nose bleeding race. Hence, you will see a return to the norm soon where all of those overpriced new homes will dive to the “standard median” for their area. This means that 1.5 MIL homes in places east of the Santa Ana Fwy will drop like rocks until they hit $250 per square foot.

    Some areas will drop more. Specially when you have a geographically uninteresting development with tons of condos and a few “High End” homes in the perimeter.

    And that, bub, is a history lesson, not a value judgment.


  25. tonye

    Well, the location of this house is excellent but I don’t think it has a view because it’s on the inside of the street. OTOH, it has a very private and useful backyard.

    As far as the price is concerned it does seem steep. In fact the price back in ’02 seems very low because those homes were pushing 300 bucks per square foot then and that would put this house at just around a MIL then.

    It’s likely then that the house has been remodeled extensively, in which case the “gain” is not a MIL because you have to subtract the cost of building. It could be that the house was indeed in 70s condition then.

    Another point to take into account is that the house has a three car garage and true five bedrooms. The five bedrooms are very rare and the three car garage and backyard size are non existent in TRidge and rare in TR even, so this house that those things going for it.

    As far as the layout, this could be true. Sometimes people build and don’t think they layout through. So that could be a detriment.

    As far as the comments about an “old” house, this is just BS. Get a life.

    The bottom line is that you can not tell what the profit is on a house based upon the previous sale. There can be factors such as the condition of the house in previous and current sale and construction/renovation that need to be taken into account.

    In the current market condition, the house does seem a bit overpriced in absolute terms.. but then at 500 bucks per square foot, given its location and its size it may not be that far off from a real price.

  26. Stupid

    92603Renter – which 92603 neighbourhood are you in?

    Also, interesting 92603 listing – that’s quite a loss in a year and half


    Price: $624,500
    Redfin Savings: $12,490
    111 Tall Oak
    Irvine, CA 92603
    Beds: 3
    Baths: 3.5
    Sq. Ft.: 1,607
    $/Sq. Ft.: $389
    Lot Size: –
    Type: Condominium
    Style: Contemporary/Modern
    Year Built: 2004
    Stories: Three or More Levels
    Area: Quail Hill
    County: Orange
    MLS#: S507462
    Status: Active
    On Redfin: 1 day
    New Listing (24 hours)
    Detached condo, most popular floor plan. Granite counter top, shutter, berber carpet, wood flooring, stainless appliances, new paint courtyard location, move in ready. The best looking short sale property. Lender approved short sale. 45 days escrow. Bank said just submit offer.

    Sales History
    Date Price Appreciation
    03/09/2006 $723,000 —

    Taxable Value
    Land $284,988
    Additions $213,352
    Total $498,340

    Taxes paid in 2006: $7,217

  27. tonye

    Yes. The Broadmoor.

    I’m also a realistic homeowner. I don’t think my house is a mansion, just my little chateau where we park our stuff, make dinner, sleep and play cards on New Years Eve.

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