Home Sales Data thru 4-25-2007

It looks like the sellers in 92612 figured out the formula for increasing sales: lower the price!

18 thoughts on “Home Sales Data thru 4-25-2007

  1. Mark

    92612 is the zip with Avenue One and The Plaza selling 800 sq ft condos for the last year+ for $500k+. We may continue to see this zip’s median value decline harder and faster than other Irvine zips ’cause of all the condos in it.

    Also being built in this zip is Central Park West. These townhomes’ pricing started excessively high. e.g. A very similar townhome in Camden Place Columbus Square built by the same developer Lennar, goes at a 20%+ discount to CPW. The mello roos in Columbus Square accounts for some of that price difference, and so does the location, but it’s still only three miles away!
    —–

  2. IrvineResident

    It took 20.7% price reduction to improve the volume in 92612. It will take even more price cut for othter zips such as 92620 to move the inventory. Watch for Zip 92606 (mostly asian owners) to see when they give up.

  3. Ecmo

    Can someone kindly explain why 92603 is heading in the opposite direction? Looks like prices are significantly up.

  4. Johnny Utah

    92603 is the zip of higher end homes in Quail Hill, Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon. The high end is insulated from the subprime problems that plague the lower end of the market.

    BTW, I know this will entice the renters to lecture us about about the “plankton theory,” i.e., problems in the lower end result in less move up buyers, eventually causing the higher end homes to come down in price. While this theory has some merit, it is largely limited to “move up” buyers — people dependent on the sale of their current home to move up to a higher end home. I don’t fully subscribe to this theory, because unlike in the ocean’s food chain, there are plenty of buyers at the high end of the market than can afford to buy regardless of whether they sell another home (you’re mistaken if you think most people living in Shady Canyon have only one home).

  5. awgee

    Ecmo – I would speculate that a very few $4 mil dollar home sales in Shady Canyon skew the median home price in an upward direction, especially when those high dollar sales are included in a declining number of properties sold in that zip. We drove through and looked at a few homes in Shady Canyon and the biggest impression I got was the large amount of graded, vacant lots, and spec homes for sale. I am no expert, but the thought that kept coming to my mind was how much monthly expense the developer and builders must have to have so many vacant lots and vacant homes for sale. And I got the same impression in the custom lot area of Covenant Hills.

  6. fumbling

    The San Diego high rise condo market (see http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/ ) is tanking with most properties now going for less than developer pricing. Yet the Irvine high rise condo market still seems to be magically immune to what’s going on in other high rise markets and the actual data (down 20% from last year) from what I can see on Redfin and Realtor.com with the 1500 sq Marquees and Plazas going for over $1m. Redfin shows supposed prices for prior sales at the Plaza, but the prices don’t seem to be accurate. Would be really nice if someone with firsthand info could post developer pricing for the Plaza units that are on the market.

  7. fumbling

    The San Diego high rise condo market is tanking with most properties now going for less than developer pricing. Yet the Irvine high rise condo market still seems to be magically immune to what’s going on in other high rise markets and the actual data (down 20% from last year) from what I can see on Redfin and Realtor.com with the 1500 sq Marquees and Plazas going for over $1m. Redfin shows supposed prices for prior sales at the Plaza, but the prices don’t seem to be accurate. Would be really nice if someone with firsthand info could post developer pricing for the Plaza units that are on the market.

  8. Justin

    Wow.. even thou a lot of those condos in 92612 aren’t worth it, they are getting cheaper by the day. If you can get a 1bedroom for 300k I would jump all over it.

  9. crucialtaunt

    What’re you smokin’ – I want some of that! $300k for a 635 sq ft shoe box – that’s $472/sq ft. This is not NYC, it’s Irvine!

  10. No_Such_Reality

    92603 is the zip of higher end homes in Quail Hill, Turtle Ridge and Shady Canyon. The high end

    high end? Hmmm, Corona del Mar, Coto, Laguna Beach, Dana Point.

    Shady has some nice areas, but get a reality check, Irvine, all of Irvine, is Middle class. Built for the middle class by the upper class, The Irvine Family’s Corp, The Irvine Company.

  11. Sue

    Walked the upper end of Quail Hill homes last weekend – lots for sale, seemed like over half was vacant. Some of the upper end homes (listed and not listed on Redfin) had construction inside and others were unlandscaped. Looks like lots of inventory … but how much is selling?

  12. Thisblogsavedme$100,000

    I almost went after 28 Climbing Vine in the 92603.
    How much did it sell for? What did they buy it for in 2004?
    How much would I have lost by buying on the way down?
    It was listed at 1,499,990, by a “real estate appraiser “when I looked at it a few months ago.
    I see others are now at 1,430,000 or less.
    I figured buy finding this blog I saved several 100K!!!!!!!!
    I found this blog 3 days, before I was to put in a bid. No Joke.

    Or am I wrong?

  13. mark in irvine

    Answer: New homes. 92603 has homes built in 2007 . Some are listing in the 7 million range. Notice that the median is $1,060,000. just a few new homes sold will skew the median. here is one in the area :
    Price: $7,795,000
    Redfin Savings: $155,900
    22 BLACK FALCON
    IRVINE, CA 92603
    Beds: 6 On Redfin: 92 days
    Baths: 6 Year Built: 2007
    sqft: 7,700 Lot Size: 20,327
    $/Sqft: $1,012 MLS#: U7000745
    Status: Active on market
    Last Sale: -.
    Check out redfin. 92604 ,However, does not have new construction just resale activity and it is showing a 14.9% drop in median price.

  14. Johnny Utah

    Sorry to burst your bubble No_Such_Reality, but Shady Canyon is one of the wealthiest enclaves in Orange County. When lots were first sold 3 or 4 years ago they were going for upwards of $1 million for the dirt alone. Mark Langston, John Campbell, Shawn Green, Mark McGwire, Jim Rome, and Lindsay Davenport all have homes there, and I would hardly call any of them “middle class” or subject to the “plankton theory.”

    But, you do point out something important — many communities in OC are filled with high end homes, and high net worth individuals and families, who are largely immune from the plankton theory.

  15. ozajh

    The median is the price point where 50% of the houses sold for more and 50% for less.

    A $7 million dollar sale will not move the median any further than a $1.2 million dollar sale, on the current 92603 numbers.

    Mark you, a house listed at $7 million could take an enormous haircut and still lift the median if it actually sold.

  16. No_Such_Reality

    There’s nice homes in there, just like Kings Rd, Emerald Cove and other places. The kicker, is 95% of 92603, like the rest of Irvine, is just tract homes, townhomes and condos.

    The “Money” isn’t going to save the tract homes, and just like the 90s, whether La Jolla, Corona del Mar, or Kings Rd. They’ll come down, basically the same percentage, they’ll come down last, they’ll come faster once they do, and they tend to rebound faster, but they come down.

    The reason is simple, when the bottom end is gone, and the middle follows suit, the ‘money’ realises that the million dollar price tag difference, buys a lot of upgrades.

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