Irvine Housing Blog

If I was a F*cked Borrower, I certainly wouldn’t take a loan mod.

Just take a look at what the debtors are jumping for joy over…

http://www.loansafe.org/forum/success-stories-homeowners-who-fought-back-won/22045-boa-successful-permanent-mods-2.html#post307153

Then again, they were probably pretty excited when they signed the docs for that $0 down NegAM toxic loan.

Looks like post from yesterday did not get enough attention, posting again!

Treasury Drops Short Sale Requirements
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40930787/comid/1/cache/718#comments_top
Treasury, last week, decided to change the rules a bit:

HAFA no longer requires that servicers verify the borrowers finances
HAFA no longer requires servicers to determine if the borrowers monthly payment is higher than a 31 percent debt-to-income ratio.
HAFA no longer requires second-lien holders to agree to accept 6 percent of the unpaid principal balance owed them, up to $6,000. Servicers now decide who gets paid how much, with a cap still at $6000.
HAFA now requires borrowers seeking a short sale get an answer/agreement within 30 days.

What caused the bubble? NINJA loans! What will cause the collapse? NINKJA afadavits! with 30-day rule and no seller financial verification, flood of sellers will want to get out of the misery while the rule lasts. Short Sales are going to go thru the roof.

Watch housing market and prices crash hard here.

Housing bust creates new kind of declining city
A study says cities where home prices have fallen the most — including Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno — could suffer long-term deterioration similar to that of the Rust Belt.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-fi-ghost-towns-20110106,0,3388283.story

This one put 20% down and didn’t withdraw equity. Glad to see that there were at least a few responsible borrowers out there.

I feel sorry that they bought at the wrong time and that they’re going to be soaked.

I was once an irvinite.  One of the first.  Utopia in a bottle, smothered by the 405 and 5 as they choked it.  Glad to be removed.

Oh, and please,  as it may not be important to you, but would be to Mr. Altman,  Johnny Mandel wrote music for the film,  but Robert Altman’s son wrote the lyric that you credit to Mr. Mandel.

>The Federal Reserve exists to foster moral hazard by preventing banks, businesses, and consumers from feeling the ill effects of their poor financial decisions.

It seems that the Federal Reserve last efforts to ignite inflation and cover mortgage losses actually work.

http://fastfood.ocregister.com/2011/01/06/food-prices-especially-breakfast-items-soar-10-percent/84312/

“Year-over-year food prices rose 10 percent for the most popular store-bought grocery items, especially breakfast foods”

10% up for just one year. Jobs are difficult to find, salaries are going down,... but eggs and milk are getting more expensive.

To quote one successful loan mod receipient: “Giving God all the glory… will be so relieved to see the updated mortgage statement, but until then I am keeping the faith!!! “

Man, and I thought the old testament god was vengeful.  The new millenium testament god is even worse what with his loan terms!

They are upside down on mortgages and instead of principal reductions, they are getting back interest lumped onto their principal.  They have an illusion of savings because the loans terms are being stretched out and have a lower interest rate, so the payments are lower.  But they are still probaly higher than rent would be.

How long will it be before they have any equity and can sell the place for enough to pay off the loan?

So on one hand, when people default they suck and are bad people with no morals or ethics, on the other hand, if they take a mod to *try* and keep the house, they suck and are stupid asses.

I am a “success story” in regards to getting a mod, and that was with the HELP of Loansafe.org and the people that post there.

I got a 30 year fixed, years 1-5 are 2%, every year there after, it rises by 1% and caps at 5%.

Remember, I put 20% down as well and I STILL am tempted to walk because after 2012, the Mortgage Forgiveness Act goes away, and I don’t want to be held to the taxes.

Either way you look at it, I’ve been b&ttfuc;?. So for now, I watch and wait, and if things look like they will stagnate or fall further, looks like another house will go on the backs of the taxpayer. Sucks, but I will not be broke when I retire…and I *will* retire, I’ve got quite a bit of stash in my retirement account as it’s the only place the greedy bastards can’t garnish.

Wall St. made housing a casino, and for that I blame the lack of regulation which started with Saint Ronald Reagan stripping it down. Go Merril Lynch, er, I mean Donald Regan.

“In fact, home prices still must fall 23 percent if they are to revert to their long-term mean (Chart 1)”

Keep in mind that the “mean” is based on an average of many up and down market cycles. I would add that, since we are in a down market, the prices should actually fall below their “long term mean”... so, more than 23%.

I’m not claiming Irvine will fall 23+%, but those numbers have to come from somewhere.

I’m trying to make sense of this:  In today’s post IR references an entry from September 17, 2010 entitled How the Lending Cartel Disposes Their REO will Determine the Market’s Fate.  Fair enough.  Always a good idea to go back and examine one’s theses.

However toward the end of the astute observations DarthFerret references a listing in Westpark that is priced at $172/sq. ft.

“$172/sf for a 5BR SFR in Westpark?!?!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/32-Vienne-92606/home/4623407
Yep, you read that right. It’s a Westpark 5BR SFRIt will be interesting to see what this eventually sells for. This one will most certainly be flipped, but it is yet another data point on where home prices are headed in Irvine and all of The OC.”

I don’t mean to pick on Darth as I enjoy his input (I just think he got snookered on the short sale come on price as you’ll see in a moment) but he does say in a second post that this is evidence of how Irvine housing prices are being “CRUSHED.”  And perhaps many of else interpreted this the same way.

Unfortunately we were dead wrong.

Being a curious sort I googled the address and surprise surprise, the house sold less than a month later for $965,000 ($333/sq ft). http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/32-Vienne-92606/home/4623407

I understand that the $469,000 asking price was short sale horseshit from a sleezeball realtor,  but the final price makes me wonder if anyone can truly predict housing prices. Or if it even makes sense to try.  I mean it sold for more than TWICE a not altogether unreasonable price ($500,000ish), if one believes that prices are dropping, only two months ago?!  So much for the great contraction of prices.
It all seems incomprehensible to me.  Anyone know a good shrink?

Sorry should read “And perhaps many of us (not else)

Befuddled, IMHO that low ball original listing was to keep real buyers away instead of spark a bidding war. A lot of realtors who are listing agents are trying to make two commissions representing both buyers and sellers. I have encountered this on two homes that I pursued and I concluded that in this market (Aug to Dec 2010) if you want to buy, you need to partner up with Listing Agent.  I asked one of the listing agents over why they hit so low price, I was told that in short sales the bank sees what the agent shows them (which is wrong) but its done that way. By putting a low offer, it brings in pool of lower offers, much lower than the market value of home. This creates a spread between what his client offered vs what the lower offers are at, and it helps the agent close the deal with his client for below the market value, tricks the banks and lower offer folks. I would not discount the fact taht a lot of short sales have under the table money exchanges between investor buyer and agents+bank negotiators. Fraud may still be at full swing here, these folks dont ever learn and are crooks.

Well, the time has definitely changed now, with prices being lowered everywhere at pace faster than I have ever noticed. There is sense of panic out there by sellers and those who follow prices on Redfin can testify it. The fun has just begun!  And yes, Irvine is not immune!