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To get strategic defaults you need (1) homes well underwater, generally 25-50% under, (2) lots of local foreclosures, (3) rents cheaper than the higher mortgage payments. Those 3 criteria are not present everywhere, and where they are present, they’ve been present for at least 2 years. Maybe there are people holding on now, but I think those that would strategically default have done so.
I don’t think your dealings with mostly multi-national, government sponsored corporations should attach the same moral code as your dealings with people. I wonder if people have a loan with their small local bank or a community credit union if they view strategic default differently?
Your friend’s situation is different than many strategic defaulters who choose to stay as long as possible and pursue legal means to prolong their stay.
Those three factors sound about right.
I think low rates are “saving” people from foreclosure right now. People who chose an option-ARM or an ARM with no gimmicks have been rewarded with lower payments.
e.g. I have a coworker who bought a $1M home in Orange in 2007 that’s probably worth ~$800K today. She used a 5/1 ARM and the fixed period just ended last month. Her new payment? Well, it’s just $1,300 less than the old payment…
Yep, I have relatives in the exact same position. If the Fed blows a bubble with printed money and holds the Fed funds rate at less then 1% for the next few years, the 5/1 OARM may work out for them. I will have some egg on my face because I have been saying the OARM bubble buy will end badly.
I finally gave up and got a short sale at 15% under market with a 4.8 30 year fixed. My cost is less then rent. I am not comfortable with the down I have been saving up sitting in cash with helicopter Ben running the show.
LOL so true, cue the devastating ARM curve update.
Look out for the tsunami of rates continuing to reset lower.
The ones that are tied to the LIBOR are resetting hysterically low: yielding payments cheaper than rent for bubble buyers.
Oh the devastation, it’s funny how so many of the bubble prediction have been so very wrong. The monster tsunami reset charts are the epitome of this comedy.
The funny one that has been going around the past year or 2 is how inflation will impact everything except housing. Good luck with that.
Excellent point, meanwhile the 10-Year continues to move even lower.
It was not the ARM part of an option-arm that was a problem, it was the option. Some reality on option arms, and why the wave of recasts won’t be a tsunami. Still, nearly 20% of option-arm loans are in foreclosure…if that’s an OK number.
Where option-arms fit into this post is how the amortized interest puts a borrower further underwater. The likelihood of strategic default is highly dependent on % underwater, so a 4-10% increase in amount underwater makes a big difference.
A big takeaway from the CR link is that many of the op-arms that would default already have and many have already been through the foreclosure grinder.
Before we get too happy with the OARM bubble buyers, they are still screwed compared to the deal I got.
I got a much better house, at a much lower price, with a 30 yr fixed. My payment stays low, while theirs will surely go up.
The difference the Fed is making is they if they struggle, they can keep the house. Without the Fed’s help, they would be snuffed out soon.
I agree.
I’m simply pointing out what should have been obvious a few years ago when the fed lowered rates: resets would be much lower. The LIBOR based resets are practically free money. Recast? Does anyone still think th banks want the houses in depressed areas?
If you had a 5-1 arm and bought in 2006, you’re going variable this year. To benefit from the lower rate, you would have had to afford the higher rate for the 5 years to now. You’d also have units nearby renting for about the same or slightly lower. You’ll also be at possibly 50% negative equity, realistically, no short-term cash at closing and probably would need a short-sale. So, do you pay a couple hundred more per month to ‘own’, or do you give up, get 12-18 months free rent, and then go from there?
1-2% movement in LIBOR doesn’t significantly impact people in those situations, and those are the situations most likely to lead to strategic default. 1y-LIBOR going up a point would make a $400k LIBOR+2.25% p&i go from $1700-1900. Do people make a decision on $200k in liabilities based on $200/mo?
gloating in the short term. enjoy it.
are we completely ignoring the interest rate subsidy via Fed purchase of treasuries?
PR - inflation is impacting housing, prices are falling less quickly due to multiple subsidies.
The Upward Slope of Real House Prices
<blockquote>I don’t think we have to choose between real prices and price-to-rent graphs to ask “how far out of line are house prices?” I think they are both showing that prices are not far above the historical lows. Prices might overshoot to the downside because of supply and demand issues; there is a large overhang of vacant housing units and many distressed properties still coming on the market, plus demand is soft with weak employment, fairly tight financing, negative home buying sentiment and some usual buyers excluded because of credit issues. But I don’t think national real prices are that far out of line.
Note: usually near the end of a housing bust - after nominal prices stop falling - real prices decline slowly for a couple more years, and we will probably see that this time too. Of course, right now, nominal prices are still falling.</blockquore>
“Does anyone believe the government statistics on inflation? The cost of everything is going up—except real estate.”
I believe the statistics in that they are purposefully designed to disguise inflation as growth. Everything is going up and it will impact housing cost starting with rents.
Rents are going up in desirable and average areas of southern California. I would expect rents to increase further in the next few years as inflation takes hold. The Irvine company will start cranking on the 3% increases or more when they take out origination incentives. This definitely impacts rental parity.
Whether that is true for the Irvine company, it is not the case in all OC markets. In CDM I’m still paying the same rent that I started with in 2005. I’ve been going month to month with that arrangement since 2006.
Like it or not, what an Irvine Co. 2 BR rents for in the second year of a lease impacts the Irvine housing market.
Irvine Co can raise rents until they cant. Rising food and energy prices will put downward pressure on rent.
Can you define ‘further’ and provide some data on the “increasing rents” in SoCal (you did say SoCal, not Irvine)? Because I have done quite a bit of looking around L.A. for a 1-2 bd, and prices have actually gone DOWN since I last looked back around 2005-06. Yes, 5 years later and the places that were renting for $2000 back then are now $1600-1700. I was quite surprised at the findings. Any insight on that PR?
PR assumes we are in a robust recovery.
There is downward pressure on rents. We are in economic contraction combined with rising prices in food, energy, and other goods. this aenemic(sp?) situation is not conducive to rising rents, maybe in utopian Irvine, but not marketwide.
I am convinced that there was a “tipping point” for strategic default. This was the default by the buyers of the Cooper-Stuyvesant Village in NYC, which took place in late 2009 or perhaps early 2010 (I should have looked it up). It was very widely publicized. The defaulting buyers had planned to shift one of NYC’s last decent middle-income housing developments into condos at grossly inflated prices, a really dirty scheme that had also gotten a lot of attention. When those buyers bailed on a few billion bucks—an entirely legitimate “business decision”, according to the coverage—, I think a lot of folks looked up from the morning paper or the Today Show and said, gee. No stigma there. Why can’t I do that too???
Winston:
the comments in your linked CR article were very good.
many people take CR to task for ignoring wages and location of the remaining jobs.
Personally, I"m not buying CR’s argument that the downturn is arresting…
~0% fed funds rate and fed is juicing the demand for treasuries thus suppressing interest rates. this has nationwide repercussions, what looks positive in the short term and very negative in the medium and longer term.
This is cheap money illusion.
Of COURSE strategic defaults will become more commonplace. I defaulted and started squatting 22 months ago. While I understand the notion of squatters living for free is offensive, what difference does it make?
It has been well documented here, that banks are trying to keep home prices artificially inflated by not releasing the homes to be sold on the open market. When neigborhoods don’t show foreclosures, home values can remain high. An added benefit is that by not foreclosures, banks don’t have to recognize the losses on their books.
Squatters can stabilize communities and guard against vadalism, thus help maintain homes. The argument that others are paying for squatters is null and void, since the bailout has already been disbursed.
Squatters have been largely responsible for spending their savings, thus helping support the larger economy.
Just like a large amphibious mammal, and the scavenger-like fish that feed of it’s parasites, squatters and banks have a mutually beneficial relationship. This relationship WILL eventually end, but for now it’s working.
I say, horaay for squatters.
Just curious ... since you stopped paying, what level of interaction have you had with the bank? Did they file a NOD, have they filed (or threatened to file) a Notice of Foreclosure? Do they periodically try to reach out to you about loan mod programs or short sales? Or is it just radio silence for the last 22 months?
I tried unsuccessfully to get a load modification. The bank told me to miss several payments, after I did they told me to pay up or they would foreclosure.
No way was I going to pay them over 9K only to have them foreclose on me anyway.
The bank and I have been doing the funky foreclosure dance, which ended with the judge quashing their notice of foreslosure after he caught their attorney lying in court.
Every 4 months the bank sends me a loan mod packet, but it always has an expiration date that expires before the postmark. LOL
If the bank wanted me out, I would be out. Well, maybe not, but they don’t want me out anyways.
When it’s all said and done, after I move into my new rent-free digs, I’ll be sure to file a motion to compel the bank to foreclose. My response will be that I was harmed after the bank took way too long to foreclose.
They may come after me in a deficiency. Until then, I’ll ride this out into the sunset using only cash in order to suppress my credit score.
In the end, I’ll file bankruptcy. I really don’t want this hanging over me…..........
Chicago:
Thanks for sharing. Love the pre-expired mod packs.
If you plan a walkaway, the best advice is to talk to both a RE lawyer and tax accountant who understand the nuances in your state.
Here is a link to the current IRS rules (note the 2012 expiration):
Do You Owe the IRS for the Difference After a Short Sale?
Your article says that Obama signed the mortgage debt relief act in Dec 2007. He must have a magic time-travelling pen or was a very powerful Senator.
There is a disconnect for many with regards to bailout or assistance programs crafted and signed by Bush vs. Obama. Who bailed out Fannie/Freddie? Not Obama.
what new rent-free digs??
ChicagoWalkaway is the unintended consequence of “saving the housing market”
the word mutiny comes to mind
Every time I hear a justification for squatting I get very angry because when you buy something for a set price you should not get a chance to get a cheaper price because it totally upsets the balance of pricing. And I’ll explain you buy stocks and they drop down in value do you get to go back to the company and say I bought it for 10 grand now I want it for less. What we loose is our balance of free markets when we want to set a value for everyone based on new value. Do we want to support Communism where all the prices are the same? If we lose our job and can’t afford our home we should rent or sale our home.
Banks can give a lower interest rate but to re- modifying the price lower because of forced squatting does not mean the property is taken care of. The one I view recently stopped cleaning the pool, cutting the grass and allowed the rest of the house to decay naturally and after 2 years of doing nothing to the home shows need of plaster repairs, rusting fences, over growth in plants, leaking sinks and in need of painting.
The banks allowed the owner to live for free even paid their taxes only to have them tell me they will declare bankruptcy and live there a few more years for free.
What does this do to the entire neighborhood? What they should be doing is forcing the banks to reduce their interest so they can keep their home and their loaned amount so the real value does not drop so low.
But this is the biggest mistake the bankers have made instead of doing the right thing they are being forced to lose more and thus take larger losses off their taxes that we the consumer pays for. They have shifted their loss to us the American Government who has picked up the losses by reducing interest paid on money market accounts and all outstanding cash.
They have taken income money out of the hands of those with cash the largest sector being retires. Those folks living off of interest are the one losing their homes as well as the trickle of those that overpaid seep into every crack and crevice of every homeowner. Thus reducing all home values.
Hitting a bubble in home prices should not have caused a depression for everyone and thus mistakes of those who overpaid and for bankers who wanted more income with mortgage backed securities being forced upon with free/no doc loans to entice those to overpay was doomed for failure for all of us.
Regulations are needed to correct this massive failure in greed.
The newest way to collect profit tax liens—-
http://huffpostfund.org/stories/2010/12/wall-street-quietly-creates-new-way-profit-homeowner-distress
When Florida retiree Gladys Walker fell behind in paying taxes on her modest Pompano Beach home, she had no idea one of America’s biggest banks and a major Wall Street hedge fund engaged in frenzied bidding for the right to collect her debt—all $768.25 of it.
“I just couldn’t come up with the money,” said Walker, 67, a former hotel worker who makes do on a monthly Social Security check.
Barely more than a year after a taxpayer bailout of major financial institutions, Bank of America and the hedge fund, Fortress Investment Group, spotted a fresh money-making opportunity – collecting the tax debts of tens of thousands of people like Walker. The bank and hedge fund can add interest charges and fees, and they bundled the debts as securities for investors.
http://huffpostfund.org/stories/2010/05/other-foreclosure-menace
more owners forced out of free and clear mortgages over taxes—
You’re right…..............
So what.
We do not live in a world of what “should” happen. THIS is happening. As long as prices fall people will walk away in droves. Homes are places to live as well as assets.
Banks should not engage in deceptive practices to get people to stop paying their mortgages, only to find out is has problems with the very same mortgage origination documents it wanted to use as evidence to evict homeowners. This is laughable at best.
If we as Americans were not so stupid, we would have rioted in the streets against politicians and corprations that act against, and lie to us to vote against our own self interests.
Trust me, if home values drop to zero, the government will find a new way to extract money through real estate maintenance taxes, or some other made up crap.
The home is loan is secured by the property itself. If the bank wanted to kick out squatters, they would. This is all part of the albiet corrupt, maket.
By the way, regulations allowed this to happen, and this is why no one has been prosecuted in the greatest criminal destruction of wealth in history.
Just sayin’
so you didn’t sign these loan origination documents then, yet they still gave you the keys? Is that what I’m supposed to be hearing? You must be very convincing!
Jesus here we go with regulation debate. Good point Chicago.
I just watched Inside Job and the first 5 min about Iceland they harp on “this was all caused because the banks were privatized” and continued banging the “deregulation caused this” drum.
Fucking propaganda never blames prior to privatization as being a problem. nobody every blames the moron investor at one end, or the moron borrower at the other. who both need to lose big. oh no, they fail to mention the effect of keynesian policy and manipulation of interest rates. oh and conveniently fail to mention the effect of a socialized mortgage market. Just keep repeating “deregulation” and “down with wall st” while simultaneously justifying keeping them afloat and justify continued central economic planning. I expect nothing more from those that feel the gov can protect us from our own stupidity.
I feel like picketing the squatters at their “homes.” I wonder how long it would take for people to move out if the neighborhood got together and showed the squatters how much they stunk.
That is a great idea.
Too bay most of your picketing buddies are underwater, and many of them are thinking of defaulting and squatting too.
Besides, when the squatters, leave, ________________ will come. (Just fill in the blank with whatever unsavory thing that you don’t want in the home next to you.)
Then after picketing them away cupcake, you’ll wish your former neighbors, you know the ones that looked out for each other still lived next to you.
The problem isn’t the squatters, it is the banks for not following through and foreclosing.
Until the bank takes title to the property the “owner of record”, even if they are not paying the mortgage, are still responsible for the property. For instance, if someone is injured on the property they hold title to, they are liable. if the city fines the property for being unkempt, they are liable. The squatter is protecting themselves by staying until the ownership transfers.
I agree that once banks take title, the squatters should move immediately, but until then, not.
You are absolutely right, it’s not only the squatters playing the game. Irvine Renter has talked about the issues of moral hazard before and in the bigger picture, that’s what I’m railing about.
Back in the day I chose NOT to buy, because I was prudent and realized I couldn’t afford what I wanted. If someone had told me I could purchase with zero down, then stop paying and live rent free while continuing to build my own nest egg—I might have said no anyway. Why? Because it was wrong. It goes against all the principles I was taught as a child.
But, here I am, the one paying rent while others live for free. Heck, this activity is getting easier and easier to justify as I see people (yes, corporations too) getting away with egregious behavior. There are absolutely no consequences to those that bought and are now squatting irresponsibly and no consequences to those that lent irresponsibly. Never, in a million years, would I have EVER thought this would happen in America. What a disillusion.
And I confess, I have no moral high ground to stand on, because even in my anger, I can say that if an opportunity presented itself to me again in a different form - I might go against what I was taught and simply benefit myself with little thought to what is morally right. What’s the difference anyway? That Chicagowalkaway-DB doesn’t care, the bankers paper-pushing loan mods they know aren’t going to close don’t care, so why should I?
—on a tangent: after the tsunami in Japan, when people were standing in long lines to get food at the grocery store, there were no restrictions. The only requests made from employees was that you should take what you need and leave some for your neighbor. That is a culture known for returning CASH to lost and found, for crying outloud. I used to think America was that way, but I guess I’m growing up, because this country is not living up to my expectations.
And Chicago-mud-pie: I do live in Irvine, which thankfully has plenty of families chomping at the bit wanting to buy a reasonably priced home, so I don’t fear a lot of riffraff at the moment. But those families can’t buy because squatters haven’t been forcibly removed by the banks. So, you #win. Feel smug all you want about walking away from your debt and living rent free—cheers to you.
this loser can’t pay a $108,000(!) mortgage on a 6(!)BR in Irvine after 13 years, and now all these years later somehow owes more than it’s worth?
no wonder it’s been featured on this blog 3 times. F indeed.
> House Purchase Price … $105,000
> House Purchase Date .... 7/24/1998
IR:
Nice pad for $105k in 1998 ...
I’m not sure that price is right ... $250,000 would make more sense for 1998?
Anybody know?