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I think this post confirms what I have long suspected: FICO scores are largely BS.
Long time reader first time poster! (Sounds like i’m on the radio) Just wanted to relate my personal experience. Bought a 1br for $270k in Santa Ana in 2006 thats been worth $110k the past couple years. (conventional loan and i put 20% down, what was i thinking) Got married and needed to move on. Had a 800 fico when I stopped making payments with plans to let it default. Squatted for about 4 months before got a bigger/better/cheaper place in Irvine. BofA canceled my credit cards (they had my countrywide loan) but no problem renting a new place and I kept current with any other payments. Score dropped to about 660 but is back up to 710 and climbing. Ended up doing a short sale which took the bank about 8 months to process while the place sat empty. It finally went through about a year ago and its the best decision I’ve ever made it my life. (although buying was far worse) I’m hoping to be able to buy a sfr in the next couple years that I can start a family in. I’ve been told though that I’ll need to wait another 2 years before I’d be able to help us get a loan.
Thank you for sharing your experience.
I wonder how many people in your circumstances are still hanging on waiting for the market to come back.
It certainly appears as if you made the right decision. Further, prices probably won’t bottom until people like you can buy again two years from now, so waiting out the decline in a rental isn’t hurting you either.
There’s another negative that could potentially be removed. A bill passed the California Assembly and is in the Senate now that would preclude employers from checking your credit score.
I know a couple people who are underwater, whose only reservation to walking is their concern about its effect on any potential employment opportunity over the next seven years.
Will not apply to positions requiring a Clearance of any level or to public positions requiring fiduciary duty or to law enforcement positions.
~Misstrial
I wouldn’t be too scared about pre-employment background checks. Most HR types (I am one) usually discount home loan defaults when reviewing credit. I would definitely, however, keep all other payments up to date and tell the HR representative about the house default after the job offer and before she sends out the reference check.
Here’s another one…remember the Real Housewife who did the short sale? Seems they’ve already found another dream home…
http://www.radaronline.com/exclusives/2011/05/alexis-bellino-real-housewives-orange-county
If the banks run out of money, Ben will just print more, taxpayers can finance another bailout. Maybe HELOC’s will make a comeback, Mama might need to upgrade the “twins”, it’s bikini season! Yay!
I ran accross this blog at http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-home-sales-rebound-but-rb-2165792017.html?x=0#mwpphu-container and thought of Irvine Renter: The “number of new houses on the market was the lowest since the 1960’s”. Funny there is no mention of the following: According to the Commerce Department, 2009 & 2010 new homes were the lowest number built since records began in 1959. The Commerce Department further states that the annualized new build rate for 2011 is 10% even lower than last year. I guess the positive spin about the number of available new homes being down is supposed to make us feel better…...until we realize it is because far fewer new homes are being built versus more homes being purchased.
Wow. I knew this would happen, but I was still a poor prophet: I figured it would be a matter of 3-5 years after default before the prodigal children would be re-admitted to the debt family.
I am kicking myself for selling my house before it dropped to less than the balance on the mortgage.
I’d only regret it if you put the proceeds into another home… otherwise, how are you better off walking away?
If Cabron sold and broke even, he would have been better off if he defaulted and saved money squatting. If Cabron sold and walked with a few thousand dollars, he could have squatted and saved more money than the few thousand.
It’s all a game of numbers. Figure 6 months at the absolute minimum of “free” rent, and then everything from there is just mo’ money. Some fortunate people (usually in the big, expensive homes, you know, the ones most of us will never ever own) get to live in them for 2 years or more.
Hey Cabron, would you have had more money saved if you got even 12 months of “free rent” versus selling?
If you are underwater, even the 6 months is at least getting *some* of your 20% down back. For the 100% loan buyers, it’s a no brainer, no money down = free rent/no loss.
I don’t wish these folks well…. just another case of greed and delusional thinking. I wish the the next buyers of their properties will get a good deal on them… which the featured property surely is not.
Maybe I’m unrealistic, but for $729K, could I get a kitchen with high-end custom cabinets and built-in appliances, instead of cheesy HD-grade white cabinets with a cheap gas range shoved into a niche? This is LUXURY? Every cheap Rogers Park, Chicago rehab is better appointed than this.. and much, much better built. And the house itself looks like it’s built out of plastic and chip-board.
2 words: debtor prisons. Let them work it off.
Absent that, all the missed payments + HELOC default should really have a bigger effect than this, unless some of these cited are unusually special cases. I’d expect an initial 804 to rebound a bit more quickly than someone who had say, a 725 starting out. But one would think a double hit would have a pretty good effect regardless, absent of any “special tricks” attempted by web companies like these, or lawyers touting they can get your score back up there again in no time.
Downside if things are truly going to be like this (for most defaulters), then nothing’s going to significantly improve on the lending side of things for a while. In which case, I hope the banks enjoy their new default rates they’ve brought upon themselves until at least 2013.
Although, in 2012 the CRAs could decide to revise to handle walkaways completely differently, which would make this article somewhat invalid. And the whole IRS situation post ‘12 should take care of the rest. I suspect bankruptcy would be no remedy there either, though offer & compromise deals always seem to exist at least the first time around.
Debtor’s prison eh? Well good brianguy, you may just be getting your wishes granted, but it will be for the next generation and it will be called “student loans”. These are “unforgivable” just like you want mortgage loans to be, just like the old royalty wanted it to be. Slaves to the ones who control the money (i.e. banksters).
Student loans are “unforgivable” because you can’t forclose on a college degree like you can on a house or car. If people could run up big student loan debts and discharge them by bankrupcy right after graduation, the whole program would fall apart. Right after graduation is when people typically have the least assets of their professional life.
Its not a conspiracy by the man to keep people in debt slavery. You can choose to get student loans or not, no one is victimizing people with student loans.
“Student loans are “unforgivable” because you can’t forclose on a college degree like you can on a house or car. If people could run up big student loan debts and discharge them by bankrupcy right after graduation, the whole program would fall apart.”
The sooner the student loan program falls apart, the better. You have listed EXCELLENT reasons to let people who cannot pay bankrupt AND to shut down the entire student loan program. It never really was workable, and it has been the major factor in inflating college tuition.
No creditor should be protected from his mistakes, and no one should be in debtor’s prison for life.
I don’t know how the govt goes after ex-students who don’t pay. Garnish their wages? The old debtor prisons, the govt would need to feed the prisoners, except in LA and foreign prisons.
The BK route was exactly what many lawyers and MD’s did pre-1982. Many MD’s that did pay were very resentful that the deadbeat ones were getting away with it and showing off with their new borrowed wealth and larger disposible income (no more loan to payback). Some just know who to milk the system and had no qualms about it.
Most of the welfare/entittlements in this country goes to the large corporations and SS. It the same old story with the lending collapse, blame it on the red-lining lending laws, i.e., the blacks. No law forced the banks to make multi-million negative equility loans to NPB borrowers.
Big deal. They already have been for my generation.
At least it makes the whole education game slightly less rigged. People need to pay their bills. Can you imagine going to school for 3 years, dropping out because your job prospects sucked, and then deciding to stiff the bank (with most loans government guaranteed)? And actually getting away with it?
That’s why the student loan programs should be shut down, brianguy.
No category of debt should be treated differently than any other. All we have done by A)supplying students with easy money for whatever bullshit course of study at whatever diploma mill accepts them; and B)guaranteeing lenders against the risk of lending for such a purpose on such terms, as well as giving them the privilege to employ collection tactics that were outlawed for every other type of debt more than 40 years ago, is to create a permanent debt-serf class of people who will be condemned to poverty and instability for all their living days, and create yet another mountain of debt that cannot be paid back.
Because there’s no way most of these people stand a chance of being able to repay 6-digit loans. Consider a law student who borrowed $200K, figuring that law is such a high-paying profession that he would have no problems paying off the loan. Well, even given the most optimistic case, this is crushing load. Even were the kid to be fortunate enough to start at $125K a year as all the TTT schools promise he will, $200K worth of debt with interest that can be raised at any time, he will be staggering under a crushing load relative to his income.
But he is really more likely to start at $40K a year (if even). How will he make payments of $1300 a month or more and still remain housed and fed, let alone pay for transportation and any essential medical care, or medical insurance (which he probably wont get at his first job).
Since our population is by and large financially illiterate, and extremely delusional as well, there is no solution to this problem but to cut our losses and move on. We’ll just have to accept that the bulk of the existing college debt will most likely never be repaid, and do what we have to do to prevent recurrence of the problem, which is to shut the loan programs down forever and for good. We simply have to allow that we made a massive mistake and stop making it.. and absorb the hit as best we can, just as we have the monstrous losses to the housing bubble.
Maybe we will finally get it through our heads that any social program that tries to do more than provide minimally for people who absolutely cannot take care of themselves, is a social program that will end up causing many more social problems than it cures.
Most student loans are are “unforgivable” . The law was changed in the 1980’s to prevent newly minted lawyers and MD’s from declaring BK to rid the burden of the loans. Even after BK, the bands were eager to loan new lawyers and MD with a BK on their credit history. The are a few programs to get reduction of the student loans through govt service, which can pay very well.
“Strategic default” is just a euphemism to make something very unethical sound palatable. Foreclosure is a safety net set up to protect those who truly can’t pay. It was never meant as a payment option for those who simply don’t want to pay what they agreed to. You are abusing a public safety net and you are breaking your promise to pay. As distasteful as the banks are in other areas, they upheld their portion of the deal with you when they paid for the house originally. Also, given that your mortgage has likely been repackaged and resold, your “strategic default” is probably also stealing from somebody’s retirement, not to mention from taxpayers who are also left to clean up your mess. Shame on you all.
If you can’t stand the risk, don’t make the investment. What? You thought there was no risk lending money to someone?
Walking away next month ($130K underwater). Estimated time to equity recovery? Over 79 years. I can live with a couple years of bad credit vs “renting” my own home and being tied to it for the rest of my life.
Suckers are the ones who *don’t* walk away. The deal says you can hand the keys back, get a black mark on your credit score, and lose
your down payment. Sounds fair to me.
Am I correct that a debt written off will be taxed as income received? So walking off a 750K loan, say the bank releases obligation? Sounds pretty BRUTAL of a tax bill to me. Sure, these California suckers who fell into such a trap are now broke but in that type scenario then where do they run? It just sounds like a vicious cycle of abuse and distaster to me.
Hi Thom.
The IRS is foregoing taxing that from 2007 through 2012:
The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act and Debt Cancellation
Not sure about states.
Irvine Renter,
You start this post with the astute observation that punishment for SD is “likely to lessen as lenders need customers in the future.”
In addition, there is a growing amount of evidence that strategic defaulters are in fact some of the very best borrowers. They have higher credit scores (before onset of default). They have higher incomes. They qualified for larger mortgages. They manage their debt better. And, they are more informed. There are a number of articles and research papers, but here are two recent ones.[1][2]
In fact, I started my company to specifically extend credit to families with severe negative equity but who have decided strategic default is in their family’s financial best interest. This is not because we need to find customers, but simply because they are good borrowers.
Just don’t put them in a contract that is against their best interest.
Mark Moore, CEO
HomeLiberty, Inc.
Not sure what happened to the two papers I linked…
The first is from Morgan Stanley titled “Understanding Strategic Default” by Tirupattur, Chang, and Egan.
The second was results announced in a press release from FICO, April 12, 2011.
[1] http://www.transunion.com/docs/rev/business/financialservices/FS_MorganStanleyStrategicDefaultResearch.pdf
[2] http://www.fico.com/en/Company/News/Pages/04-21-2011.aspx
How pathetic has this country become? Promoting a strategic default as the new American way of life shows just how close to the bottom we are.
Sure, let’s get everyone who didn’t have enough common sense when they made their purchase but can still afford their mortgage payments to just stick it to the investors that provided the loan.
While we are at it, let’s also do this to the banks who issue credit cards along with anyone else stupid enough to grant someone credit.
Face it, the entire USA is nothing more than a nation of bankrupt, incompetent, corrupt individuals and entities and it gets worse every single day.
So let’s just keep this pile of crap rolling until this deadbeat country finally comes to an abrupt stop and the riots and total chaos that are coming, can take over.
Most of you idiots can’t see the handwriting on the wall and what it says is your days are numbered. In the end you usually get what you deserve and that will surely be the case when this fiasco finally ends.
Not sure where to start with your rant, but frankly, you’re wrong.
The US does so well specifically because its easier to discharge debt than other countries. You come to the US and start a business and it doesn’t work out? You can get your debt wiped clean. Not so in other countries.
If we preventing the discharge of debt, it would hamper risk-taking and innovation. Not all risk-taking is bad, just the excessive, uncontrolled sort perpetrated by the investment banks during the real-estate go-go era we just experienced.
Exactly what part of what I said am I wrong on? Sounds like to me you’re one of those who probably already defaulted or is thinking about it.
So is it your take is there is an everlasting eternal game going on in this country where debt will just keep getting washed away with no major repercussions? Have you ever heard of a Ponzi scheme which always crashes and took down Bernie Madoff? Did you catch the interview Madoff did when he said the whole US government was nothing but a Ponzi scheme?
I don’t know what planet you are from but you need to get your head out of the fog, wake up and enter reality. This game is about to come to an end and sooner rather than later.