House prices expected to fall this fall and winter

Sep 8th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by carly
2011-09-08 08:34 AM

Thanks for the great post, I look forward to reading more from you in the future.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-09-08 08:38 AM

Payday loan spammer.

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-09-08 09:46 AM

I expect that my landlord’s house will be sold at a foreclosure auction in Santa Ana today. The auction has been postponed 12 times, each month since 2010.

He hasn’t paid the mortgage since 2009, but he’s paid to lawyers.

I wonder what a tenant should do after a foreclosure auction. I read that he can stay for 3 months. How can he recover the deposit?

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-08 10:01 AM

You’re right about the decision to buy being based on circumstances rather than macro economics. My husband and I would LOVE to buy a house, our children aren’t getting any younger and having a family home is important to us.  Renting with a family, although smarter financially, is a pain when it comes to having pets, keeping the kids in the same schools, etc. The only thing that has kept us from pulling the trigger on a house is the notion that we fear we’d be immediately underwater at the prices we see here in OC and stuck. I know this isn’t anything that hasn’t been said here a million times. It’s frustrating to feel we’re missing out while waiting for the market to correct.

Astute Observation by no worries
2011-09-08 10:36 AM

Yeah, same situation here. So frustrating.

It’s getting close, I think, for us. If the homes we’re looking at come down even another 10%, I think we’re happy with that value.

Whether that’s full corrected, I’m not sure, but it would put us in a home we could be happy with long term (excepting a forced relocation or some such).

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-09-08 10:43 AM

Even though it has been said before… there are many who don’t understand the difference children make when considering renting vs. owning.

We’ve been looking to buy in a different neighborhood for the last few years but now that our kids are going to our area school, we either have to stay put or have our kids become “commuter kids”.

In the past I’ve downplayed the importance of continuity when it comes to their schooling but for many it’s a very important factor.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-09-08 10:47 AM

My wife and I have contemplated moving to South County off and on over the last several years, but we don’t want to leave the Irvine school district, so we stay here.

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-08 11:07 AM

My husband and I keep (half) joking that once the kids are in college we should just pick up and move somewhere more reasonable to live with crappy schools.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-09-09 05:42 AM

Hold the presses!  Are you saying that you rented in Irvine?  Are you saying that you don’t need to buy a house for your kids to attend Irvine schools?

Astute Observation by Still a renter
2011-09-12 09:37 PM

No, you don’t have to buy a house for your kids to attend the district school. Your rented home is your primary residence, and your kids attend the school in the area of your primary residence. I am renting only because I want my kids to attend the most reputable schools in the SF Bay area, otherwhise I would buy home few blocks down (but different school attendance area).

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-08 11:02 AM

I get the feeling most (not all) of the people on these boards are older and a bit more settled so kids don’t really become a factor.

My parents were renters and I think the longest I was in a school was 2 years or so in the 80s-early 90s. My kids have been in the same schools since kindergarten and second grade and (6th and 8th now) and the idea of moving them really gets to me. They’ll survive if we move out of the area but it will weigh in heavily in any decisions we make.

I’d prefer to move into our own home rather than another rental but with things going the way they are who knows…

I don’t want to be one of those people who rants all over the board to strangers but… I can’t help but feel cheated. My husband and I are both professional people and we’ve paid our dues and would like to buy and settle. We got approved for a mortgage recently (side note: it’s insane how much banks are willing to lend. More than enough rope to hang ourselves with.) But I still can’t make the numbers work. It just doesn’t make sense to spend 3x more on a house to live in OC. I was sure that in 2011 things would have come down enough but I’m starting to believe that the squatters and banks might be able to drag this on for several more years before we get back to some sort of normal. By which time my family may be grown.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-09-08 12:11 PM

Teri, you are correct that this current generation with growing kids got the short end of the stick.  Throw in the biggest housing bubble in history and the largest recession in modern times and you have some serious challenges.

While you might feel cheated by the events that transpired, there are plenty of people who are in much worse shape (trust me).  My best friend is about to lose his house that he bought back during the bubble.  He and his wife both took big cuts in pay and their house is about 150K underwater.  All this and two young kids.  I have to say this generation got SCREWED!  These are professionals who just wanted to enjoy the dream of owning a house and raising a family…their future is far from certain.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-09-08 12:20 PM

Teri,
Welcome to the club.
Doing the math, it doesn’t make sense to buy, unless you calculate another Ponzi/inflation schemes occurring.  I’ve been renting and saving for many years.  Was living in a “almost a million dollar McMansion” new house for $2600/month for 4 years (2004-2008).  The house did go up in price, but the payments would of been a killer.  I should have bought, but that was only in that city.  Other neighboring cities, which co-workers purchased, were killed (dropped 35% $1.2million to under $800k and still dropping).  I did run into some honest realtors that said those towns were unsuitable for my kids’ education.  I just don’t see buying a small shack for over $800k and having high HOA to boot.

Schools are a main factor for me, so that’s why I’m renting and not throwing my money away by buying an overpriced Ponzi house.

Astute Observation by Brian
2011-09-09 09:32 AM

Yes, I’m sure your generation has had it rough as well.  Don’t forget the generation limbo too though.  The kids who are graduating today that can’t find a job and are having to move back in with parents.  They probably won’t even have enough for a down payment even after the crash does correct the prices.  Hopefully prices will stay sane for awhile though.

Astute Observation by alex
2011-09-09 02:55 PM

if you blame banks or squatters for lost time, you do not get it.

you should have really blamed the enablers, that’s our elected official, that’s right President, congressmen and senators.

They’ve enabled lenders(suspended mark to market) to delay foreclosures and slowed down house prices reaching the bottom by giving help and hope to homeowners while nothing to renters.

so it is your Government you and your kids should really thank for that.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-09-09 05:41 AM

We rented for six years in the same neighborhood where we recently bought.  Renting made absolutely no difference in the schools or school district.  What a load of hooey!

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-09-09 10:05 AM

Granted, there are many people who find it easy to rent for extended periods of time, but there are certain areas where it’s not that simple, at least in Irvine.

We rented for about a year but it was very expensive and comparable properties were the same. Like Teri, it’s tough to find quality SFR rentals that allow pets, especially in the range we were looking. At the monthly we were paying, it didn’t make sense to continue renting because it wasn’t a significant savings over buying. We could rent a smaller place, but in this neighborhood, 3/2 condos were going for $3200… bleh. And while it was our preferred school (which was closed to enrollment from other neighborhoods), we just couldn’t find a rental (or purchase) that was financially reasonable for us. In addition, the rental we were in was not only expensive, but the owner stopped paying his property tax so that’s another issue we had to worry about (not to mention after we moved out we had problems with getting our deposit back).

Renting does work for many people (IR himself has been a longtime renter) but for many others, it’s difficult (esp in Irvine with some areas still inflated in both home prices and rental rates and a stricter boundary enforcement of schools).

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-09 11:31 AM

Right now I could buy the house 2 doors down from my rental at full asking price and pay $500 less a month than my rent. Same floor plan and they have a slightly larger yard. In a lot of decent areas rents are really expensive IF you can find a house to rent in the first place. It’s annoying to me that people seem to think renting is always so much cheaper. I’m no snob and I’ve yet to find house for less than I am paying now that’s comparable.

Could I rent cheaper? If I move to a crappier neighborhood (I’m in an OK but not fancy neighborhood) Honestly I wouldn’t want to buy here. I am thinking about moving up to a bigger house with a larger yard in a nicer neighborhood for near what I am paying now.

My landlord may be foreclosing on the home they currently live in so renewing my lease is very much up in the air. (they may move back in to my place) Everything is coming to the point where we have to start making some decisions.

Reason I still haven’t bought? I think prices may come down a bit more and in this economy I am worried about not being able to sell if something happened. In the nicer neighborhoods the monthly nut on a house is starting to become on par with renting with interest rates as low as they are.
It’s not as black and white as some of you seem to say.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-09-09 05:21 PM

I never said that renting was always cheaper than owning.  I said that the school issue is a BS!  You can rent a home anyplace you can buy a home.  You can rent a home in any school district that you can buy a home.  IHO’s soliloquy is a long winded strawman argument which does not tell the truth, which is that you can rent a home anyplace you can buy a home, so the school issue is a bunch of hooey!

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-09-09 05:28 PM

I notice that you constantly feel the need to defend/rationalize your purchase of your home.

We just bought a home; closed today.  Ya know why?  Cuz we wanted to own a home.  Will home prices continue to decrease?  Is renting still cheaper than owning, generally speaking?  Yes to both.  Would renting still be cheaper than buying for us.  YEAH!  WAY!  Do I care?  Only a little bit.

Astute Observation by zovall
2011-09-09 06:35 PM

Congrats awgee!

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-09 06:39 PM

Awgee, who said you couldn’t rent in the area your kids were going to school? The only thing that was said is that it’s a drag to try and find a rental in the same area as you’ve been living. Either way this is a subject that evidently gets your blood going.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-09-09 08:25 PM

We had less difficulty finding a rental than we did a purchase in the neighborhood we were looking in. 

Thanks Zov.

Astute Observation by westirvine_loaner
2011-09-08 12:20 PM

I bought late last year very well knowing the risks. Similar houses are now selling for about 5% less and probably will sell for even less coming winter. In my opinion there is no question that anybody who buys know will be underwater for a while.

That said, my family has really enjoyed the house so far. My young son really enjoys the space and the yard. My wife and I have been able to accommodate large numbers of guests during various occasions with ease now. We are free to do what we want with home improvements etc.

So, my feeling is it makes sense to buy if
1)You do not stretch yourself crazy and buy around rental parity
2)You are certain that you would not mind trading the benefits that ownership brings with potential loss of downpayment.

If you cannot stomach a loss of downpayment (hopefully temporarily) then do not buy.

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-08 01:49 PM

We might head down that road if we can’t renew our lease. I’m glad your family is enjoying your home. That’s what is should all be about. smile

Astute Observation by westirvine_loaner
2011-09-08 03:02 PM

I agree, owning a home is really about customizing it to your tastes and lifestyle and then enjoying it with your family.

I think where a lot of people got into trouble was
1) Stretching themselves too much and/or ignoring rental parity.
2) Putting all their savings into down payment

I really believe you must make reasonably conservative financial decisions so that it does not affect your enjoyment of your home.

After all what is the point in buying a nice house if all you can think about is next month’s mortgage or the vanishing downpayment.

Astute Observation by SanJoseRenter
2011-09-08 02:39 PM

Same old rationalizations for overpaying for a house.

Mental note: skip the annual BBQ with so-called friends and save 65% on housing by renting.

Astute Observation by westirvine_loaner
2011-09-08 03:07 PM

As long as you can get something around or under rental parity it is at least worth considering purchasing.

I am not advocating buying overpriced houses which Irvine and San Jose probably have in plenty

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-09-08 12:30 PM

My sister locked in a 4 year lease.
I’ve been living in the same place for 3 years.  Prior place was for 4 years.

My renters have been renting from me for 6+ years.  Just because you rent, doesn’t mean you need to keep moving.  But it does allow you to move it needed.

Astute Observation by socalappraiser
2011-09-08 11:29 AM

I hear loud and clear the comments regarding kids and school.  Today was the first day for my kids (2nd grade & Kgarten) in Irvine Unified.  Due to the economy and work changes we were in Sherman Oaks last year.  Last year my wife called me crying about the situation she encountered (even after some decent research) there when dropping our oldest for her first day of 1st grade.  Today she called me happy - the complete opposite. 

Through some foresight and good luck we sold our OC home in 2005.  We rented in Irvine the following year while the kids were infants and toddlers.  During that time I liked Irvine, found it convenient, etc. but never thought I would want to own here.  We’ve since been out of state and back.  Unfortunately, I am now more dependent on my employer than they are on me.  The outlook for jobs in my industry is OK but the need to relocate always looms in order to get an equivilent or better position.  The outlook for CA, in general, is not too good.

So while I would like to buy, the factors mentioned in previous posts as well as the job situation keep me renting and moving when necessary.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2011-09-08 12:26 PM

Same here.
My last 3 employers’ HR asked if I owned or rented a home.  Neither.  I just rent a house.  I think they had a bias in hiring someone who owned and needed to commute back on weekends to home.

Renting and not throwing my money away by buying an overpriced Ponzi house.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-09-08 05:51 PM

O.C. homes still triple the U.S. cost
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/09/08/o-c-homes-still-triple-the-u-s-cost/122181/

Astute Observation by *
2011-09-08 07:32 PM

good to see buyers are realistic about future housing prices.

in 2005, it was a bunch of people claiming prices never fall.
in 2007/2008, huge argument over whether it was a slight dip before prices would shoot up again.
in 2009, people calling bottom.

finally, after 5 long years, people have a sense of where prices should be. some are even predicting price declines which is refreshing.

of course many sellers are still in denial, but that doesn’t matter since the buyers won’t touch those overpriced properties.

took long enough for people to catch on.
people are slow (and many sellers are even slower).

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-09-09 04:26 AM

The idea of people taking a while to catch on is critical to the understanding of bubbles.  There is a large group of economists that believe that prices on assets are correct all the time.  Markets use available information to make on aggregate accurate price decisions.  A fundamental flaw to this is that nothing happens instantaneously.  Look at delinquencies and foreclosures.  Someone stops paying on their mortgage and it is many months to over a year before the property becomes available to someone else, pushing prices down.  Also those bonds linked to bad mortgages.  Were they instantly downgraded when their payment stream started to trickle?  You should notice when a stream has less volume, not just when it runs dry.

The psychology behind bubbles is interesting and not getting the attention it deserves.

Astute Observation by PasadenaGal
2011-09-09 08:57 AM

I am SO glad that I’m childfree by choice!

Astute Observation by Teri
2011-09-09 11:40 AM

I’m sure you’re childfree by choice for better reasons than saving on your housing costs smile

Astute Observation by PasadenaGal
2011-09-09 12:56 PM

Yes, much better reasons, lol! Kids are great but not for me. Luckily, my childbearing years are behind me and I don’t have to worry about an “oops!”

Astute Observation by Not child Free
2011-09-09 11:50 AM

I have eight children and I couldn’t think of life without them.  No kids by choice?  Sounds like a lonely life. Every year our children enrich our lives and we have new experiences that we never would of had without children.  Yes, some experiences are challenging but most are rewarding and uplifting.  28 years of marriage and eight children, life is not only good it is great!

Astute Observation by PasadenaGal
2011-09-09 12:55 PM

Lonely? Bullshit. I have a great life with my partner, friends and family, traveling whenever I want, got an advanced degree, etc. Glad you enjoy your children, but they are not for everyone! Don’t you dare pull a Bingo on me. Plus, don’t you think eight children is a little irresponsible in this day and age?

Astute Observation by Not child Free
2011-09-09 08:06 PM

You are right, children aren’t for everyone. Having eight children isn’t irresponsible if you can afford and plan for them as we did. I haven’t asked you or anyone else for money.  No oops in our family.
Best to you and yours. smile

Astute Observation by darms
2011-09-11 02:20 PM

Another child-free person here. If what the 8-child breeder calls a ‘a lonely life’ is a life without screaming children or fearing for their future, then bring it on! I’m 55 and have no regrets preferring cats over kids.

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