Welcome to Orange County Bubblicious Bingo! Created by our blogging buddy, OC_FlipTrack, this nifty little matrix captures a lot of the phrases and advice that we’ve been hearing from people in the ‘know’ regarding the housing market in Orange County. Grab the PDF (bubble_bingo2.pdf), print it out, and hang it in your cube!
Address: 22 Taquitz, Irvine, CA 92602 (Northpark)
Plan: 1400 sq ft – 2/2
MLS: S460930 DOM: 24
Sale History: 9/28/2005: $540,000
Current Price: $559,000
This (Plan 2 or 3?) condo is in the Monticello tract in Northpark Square. It was purchased last year and it looks like they had put 20% down! What a rarity if that’s true! If someone has better access, please let us know if you can confirm this. These flippers stayed in the home for less than a year before deciding to list the property.
Sorry, not much to say about this one. If they have really put 20% down, they have a lot of room to bring the price down if they are motivated to sell. At the current asking price, they will lose about $15,000 after 6% in selling costs.
Okay, so I admit that I’m a bit fixated on Portola Springs. It’s really very simple. I owned a nasty, pre-Brady Bunch house for 7 years in Fullerton before I moved to Tustin, and the Tustin house was a mid-90s gem. I WANT A NEW HOUSE!!!!! Portola Springs and Woodbury are the most convenient options for me, and each one comes with a brand new retail center to boot. I know there are plenty of people who disagree with me and believe that new houses and developments have no character. I just have to say, in Southern California, character means old, nasty, dirty tract houses that all look alike, as opposed to new, clean, bright tract houses that all look alike.
I posted a comment on Piggington last month about a bad experience I had with a sales guy at the KB Home Bougainvillea development in Portola Springs. I asked the guy if there were any incentives on the Plan Two and he laughed at me. He actually laughed! He then haughtily explained that they were all sold out in the current release so there was no need for any incentives. Then he looked at me like the trash that I am, all single-mother-120k/year of me – before glancing meaningfully at the door.
Well, here’s all I have to say about Bougainvillea:
Residence One August/Sept. 2006: $784,000
Residence One October 2006: $725,000
Residence Two August/Sept. 2006: $822,465
Residence Two October 2006: $775,000
Residence Three August/Sept. 2006: $872,000
Residence Three October 2006: $820,000
Right back atchya, buddy!!!
And in response to some of my fellow bubbleheads out there telling me to stop torturing myself by going to open houses and model homes, isn’t it apparent by now that this is sport for me? A girl’s gotta get a good time going in whatever way she can!
From the Press-Telegram: “Housing market’s looking positive – About 12,000 Realtors gathered in Long Beach for three days last week to hear the fate of the market at the California Realtor Expo 2006 at the convention center. A housing report delivered at the conference on Wednesday forecast the median home price to fall slightly for the first time in 10 years. But most Realtors spoken with at the conference viewed the market with optimism, as did those who compiled the numbers.”
“The experts offered mostly positive outlooks for the 2007 economy and housing market for California, despite the expected drop in the median home price and a foreclosure report issued on Wednesday that showed the number of foreclosure notices sent to Californians rose to double what it was last year. Cagan discussed a study he recently released on housing resets, which looks at the impact of adjustable mortgages resetting to a higher rate after a three or so year period of fixed rates. Cagan said foreclosures will have some effect on the market, but it won’t be anything like the gloom and doom scenario of a bursting real estate bubble.
From the OC Register: “Reporter Jeff Collins joins the record numbers taking the state’s real estate license exam and struggles to avoid becoming one of the thousands who fail.”
“The number of tests administered in this state increased from about 34,000 in fiscal year 1997-98 to more than 185,000 in fiscal year 2005-06. Of those, nearly 24,000 tests were taken this past year right here in Anaheim, the fourth-busiest of the state’s 13 test sites.”
“Orange County had the second-highest number of real estate license holders in California, second only to Los Angeles.”
From the Press Enterprise: “UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff called the recent report by Moody’s Economy.com, which forecast home prices in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to drop almost 12 percent, a bit drastic. … ‘We definitely think the real price of houses will fall, but you won’t see it in the nominal price of the home, or what’s on the price tag,’ Ratcliff said.”
“Redlands-based economist John Husing said he expects the Inland region’s steady population growth to help it bounce back from the housing slowdown before the rest of the state. ‘The Inland market is in a little bit better shape than other places because it’s still so much less expensive than the coast,’ he said. ‘The growth in Orange County is basically done.’ “
Also from the Press Enterprise: “Commuters looking for a cheaper place to live are still gazing east toward Riverside and San Bernardino counties, even though apartment rents have risen 6 percent since this time last year, according to a report released last week. Inland-area rents have risen to an average of $1,129, but that’s still cheaper than a $1,546 average monthly rent payment in Orange and Los Angeles counties, according to RealFacts Inc.”
” ‘Because house prices are high and interest rates are high, the monthly payment for homes is substantially higher than rent,’ she said ‘(Homebuyers) right now are sitting on the sidelines,’ and renting while they wait out the housing price dip, she said. Land in Los Angeles and Orange County is still expensive and sparse, which makes the Inland region more attractive for dense apartment buildings, said Jack Keyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. But many homeowners say ‘not in my backyard’ when dense rental development is proposed”
Well, it’s official – I have found the house (well, technically it’s a detached condo) that I am going to purchase. After strolling through hundreds of ugly old Brady Bunch houses, and plenty more brand new but awkwardly-designed, cheaply thrown together new construction in Irvine, all in the pursuit of feeding my addiction to watching the housing bubble explode like a Mentos in a bottle of Coke, I have fallen in love with a house. So I’m going to buy it.
In 2008.
Okay, let me back up a little. First of all, sorry for my long absence. Our brilliant and generous Irvine Housing Blog host Zovall kindly invited me to write posts on his blog whenever I wanted to do so, in order to provide a different voice and perspective on the local housing market. I have neither the access nor the smarts that my colleague possesses, to be able to find and post about the fascinating listing situations that he has been able to find. However he has assured me that my “out and about” commentaries provide a good balance to his blog, and I hope that you, our friends in the Irvine bubble-watching community, agree. So my intent was, and still is, to write a witty, interesting post every couple of days to spark discussion on this blog. However, life kind of gets in the way sometimes. And so all I’m going to say in summary is, look at my name. That’s my excuse!
So, getting on with my story about Paloma by Brookfield Homes in Portola Springs. Today I actually did my hair and put make-up on (an unusual occurrence for me on a Saturday; usually it’s ponytail or hat and sweatpants!) to attend an Open House that the nice folks at Paloma had invited me to attend, complete with a snail-mailed invitation that had requested my RSVP. I had actually called the 800 number on the card in a moment of weakness this week when I felt the need to be sucked up to. Sure enough, the greeting I received on the phone, as well as today at the Paloma office, made me feel quite special indeed. None of that soooooooo-2005 sales office attitude, no indeed, ma’am! How wonderful of you to come visit our community on this lovely fall day today! Would you like some cider and cookies? Can I explain our new community to you? Please feel free to take a look at our models and let me know if you have any questions! Big, wide, sincere smile.
Gee, I guess I didn’t even have to get all dressed up to be treated with a modicum of respect this time! Again, a complete 180 from the not-so-distant past.
I was given a list of 10 available homes, already built and ready to move into, of which one was marked “SOLD.” That was Residence 2C, 2,235 sq feet, 3/2.5/2. $863,000. Plus Paloma HOAs of $185 a month, Portola Springs HOAs of $175 a month, and an effective tax rate (including Mello Roos) of 1.8%.
Yikes.
So I go into the first model, and I fall in love. This is a one-story, 1723 sq foot, detached home. I generally don’t like one-stories. (I’m more of a two-story, bedrooms upstairs kind of a gal). Anyway, this place just really sucked me in. First of all, Brookfield Homes, in my humble opinion, gets it right when it comes to design of floor plans and materials of construction. No strange room angles, no squashed or truncated rooms, etc. Just lots of bright, airy, roomy space. Plus, the kitchen opens up (as does the master bedroom) into a central courtyard that could be bigger, but is not cramped. It is beautifully decked out with an outdoor fireplace and furniture that made me want to open a bottle of wine and invite friends and family over for dinner. The kitchen works, the laundry room works, the bedrooms (all two of them) just WORK for me. Granted, I could use one more bedroom, but at 1723 sq feet, it’s plenty big enough for me and my little guy.
The community is a semi-circle around the lovely Lomas Valley park, complete with a huge grassy area, basketball court, beautiful beckoning playground, and a gorgeous pool. So what that my son wouldn’t have a back yard, with this great common area so close?
I could just LIVE here!
The only hitch is the price tag. It was not possible to tell from the pricing sheet what the exact starting price was for the Residence 1 model since there are four Residence 1’s to choose from (1A, 1BR, 1C, and 1ARX) and 1BR is the model but is not listed on the price sheet. I could get enough of an idea, however, based on the pricing that was provided. The cheapest Residence 1 was listed for $774,300, and the most expensive was $824,070. Mind you, that’s for the 2BR model. The other models were beautiful as well, and were all 2-story and 3 or 4 bedroom. Prices went up to $987,500 to start.
The community of Portola Springs was hosting a Fall Festival while I was there, at Lomas Valley Park. I had also received a lovely snail-mail invitation for this event as well. There were several pretty fancy food booths including funnel cake, a harvest area with lots of pumpkins and hay bales, and it looked like they were prepared to do some games and activities for the kids. Festive music was playing over loudspeakers and there were balloons and happy, smiling people set up at information tables. It was not empty – there were some families there, perhaps 50-75 people as a rough guess? However, they appeared to be set up to have handled many, many times that many people. If the host of this party had been a 16-year-old girl having a birthday party, there’d have been some tears involved as the hours went by.
This is a beautiful community, well-designed, family-friendly, and less than 10 minutes away from my job on local roads. It feeds into Northwood High School and will have its own, brand-new elementary school opening in 2008. It is just up the road from the brand new Woodbury Town Center which will have tons of shops and restaurant including, importantly, a Trader Joe’s! And it will have its own, smaller retail center within walking or biking distance. In short, this is EXACTLY what I want for me and my son. I just don’t want to cash in my 401k and lay awake at night worrying about my finances in order to be able to live this dream!
I went into one more “open house” at Paloma today in addition to the models. It was an unfinished home (no flooring, no landscaping, lots of finishing work yet to occur) that was having a “one-day financing special” according to the sales agent camped out in the future kitchen. Brookfield Homes would pay down the interest rate, he said to me with a big, wide smile. “Oh, really? For the duration of the mortgage?” “No, for the first five years. You save more than $98,000 over that time through this exciting program!”
So I responded, “Yeah, and then after five years, you’re screwed.”
He just looked at me. Guess he didn’t like my attitude very much. I guess he figured that I must be one of those bitter renters, holding out for a bargain. I need to change my psychology! Realize it’s a buyer’s market! Jump off the fence and just go for it!
Helllooooooo????!!! I only earn $120k; i only have $130k in a CD to use as a downpayment. I am among the working poor trash of Irvine!
But seriously, the only way I could afford an $800,000 house is to either find a rich man to marry (no, thanks, I like being on my own!) or to take out a toxic mortgage.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Hence, my decision to purchase. In 2008. When prices are several hundred thousand dollars lower.
Thanks for reading. Have a great day!
