Monthly Archives: October 2006

Kelsey Lane – Another Oak Creek Flip Gone Wrong

Address: 61 Edgewood, Irvine, CA 92618 (Oak Creek)

Plan: 1910 sq ft – 3/2.5

MLS: S462503 DOM: 6

Sale History: 2/15/2006: $819,000

8/02/2000: $347,000

Current Price: $849,000

This Plan 2 in the Kelsey Lane tract built by California Pacific Homes was purchased with 5% down earlier this year for $819k. 8 months later and it’s back on the market for only $30k more. Apparently, these guys think prices have increased in the last 8 months (even though the same plan at 30 Pembroke sold for $825k on 6/16/2006). Or maybe they are just trying to recoup some of the commissions they’ll have to pay. They obviously missed the peak summer period for listing their home. We’ll have to wait and see how motivated these sellers are. Assuming selling costs of 5% (since the agent is related to the seller), our flipper will be in the hole at least $12,000.

California Foreclosure Activity Highest Since 2001

From abc7: “In Orange County, there was a 101.9 percent jump in default notices sent to homeowners over the same quarter last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.”

“It was much the same story across Southern California, with foreclosure notices increasing 104.8 percent in the six-county region in the third quarter, DataQuick reported. San Diego County saw a nearly 160 percent jump in foreclosure notices over the same quarter last year, while Riverside saw a 140 percent rise.”

From the OC Register: “Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, is projecting a ‘modest’ price decline following years of price gains in the double digits.”

“Young projected that the median California home price will fall to $550,000 next year from this year’s projected median of 561,000. Sales will tumble to 447,500 homes changing hands in 2007, compared to 481,200 home sales expected this year.”

UPDATE #1 – Here’s the link to the foreclosure info from DataQuick

UPDATE #2 – Some nice charts from the OC Register

The Ranch – Flip Flop Go the Agents in El Camino Real

Address: 15361 Seine Cir., Irvine, CA 92604 (El Camino Real)

Plan: 2982 sq ft – 5/3.25

MLS: S457284 DOM: 41

Sale History: 7/5/2006: $897,000

Price Reduced: 10/06/06 — $1,100,000 to $999,000

Current Price: $999,000

This home in The Ranch tract in El Camino Real was sold by a real estate agent/homeowner and sold to a real estate agent/flipper. The real estate agent/flipper put the home back on the market exactly 2 months after they bought it AND they expected to find a GF (as in Greater Fool) to pick it up so they could make the $203,000 profit they worked so hard for. A month went by with absolutely no interest and they lowered the price by 100k, deciding that they would be okay with a measely $102,000 profit.

If they do find a GF to pay the $1 million asking price for this home, they’ll actually make considerably less than $102,000. The seller is offering a 4% commission for someone to bring a GF so I’ll assume a total of 6% in selling costs (4% plus a little in closing costs plus a little to their broker). That reduces the potential profit to $42,000. The home is also listed as vacant and is also available for rent for $3600/month. Being the nice guy that I am, I’ll assume carrying costs of only $4000/month (10% down, 6% IO on the other 90%). It’ll be at least 5 months of carrying costs by the time this home is sold. That reduces the potential profit to $22,000. In all likelihood, the home will sell for less than $1 million and the flipper agent may be in the hole.

It’s pretty surprising for me to see someone leg into a flip right now. When the summer started, things had obviously slowed down. How could anyone, especially someone in the business, decide they were going to buy a home this summer with the intention of flipping it?!?

Home Sales Observe Largest Decline Since 1996

From CBS 2: “The unsold inventory of new homes in Orange County is at the highest level since 1996, according to an economic forecast released Friday in Irvine.”

“The report noted that what usually happens when a real estate market bubble bursts “is that sales just dry up” because buyers won’t buy homes at the listed price and sellers are unwilling to cut their prices. It described the result as “the economic equivalent of Chinese water torture” — with the decline in prices starting slowly but lasting a long time.”

“The economists said they do not expect a major decline in home prices this year.”

From the OC Register: “Orange County’s home prices continued to soften last month as sellers weathered the slowest September in 14 years, new housing figures released Thursday show.”

“The median price of an Orange County home sold last month was $626,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems.”

“Although the median price is up $16,000, or 2.6 percent, from 12 months ago, it’s the third monthly decline in a row.”

“In addition, the median price of an existing condominium fell from year-ago levels for the first time since June 1997. Last month, the median condo price was $440,000, down 3.3 percent from September 2005.”

From the LA Times: “Sellers who aren’t keeping pace with buyers’ expectations are growing discouraged and withdrawing their listings.”

“That’s exactly what Kurt Freck did. His Anaheim Hills home was on the market at the same price of $849,000 for three months. But after no nibbles, and seeing price reductions at comparable homes for sale in his neighborhood, he decided to cancel his listing agreement when it expired Tuesday.”

“‘I’m fortunate because I don’t have to sell,” said Freck, who purchased his home three years ago and believes that it has since doubled in value. “But as a homeowner, you got so used to watching homes sell quickly in the last couple of years.'”

“‘The market hasn’t gone into that desperation mode yet, but we see it as in the earliest stage of the downward pressure on prices,’ said Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange.”

Irvine Sales Trends

Finding accurate and detailed information on Irvine housing sales over a period of time has always been a challenge for me. I wish I had kept each Real Estate/Business section of the Sunday OC Register since the beginning of time. 😉 It would be great to analyze sales numbers and trends at the zip code level and have the actual numbers to work with. Until then, I’ve found some charts created by RE Report that I found at the Orange County Report that I think you might enjoy as well:

Short Term Trends – Irvine SFR

Short Term Trends – Irvine Condo

Long Term Trends – Irvine SFR and Condo