Early Light

O say, can you see, by the dawn’s early light,

What so proudly we hailed at the twilight’s last gleaming,

Whose broad stripes and bright stars, through the perilous fight

O’er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?

And the rockets’ red glare, the bombs bursting in air

Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there;

O say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave

O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave

Star-Spangled Banner — Francis Scott Key

Great Video (warning, you will cry)

Remember yesterday’s WTF homes where the owners paid about $1M but thought they were worth $2M? Well, today’s property is another Northwood beauty, but this seller actually wants to sell his house. After 125 days on the market, he is going to be a rollback.

31 Early Light Front 31 Early Light Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,350,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,381,500

Purchase Date: 12/29/2005

Address: 31 Early Light, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 3,640

$/Sq. Ft.: $371

Lot Size: 7,000 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Mediterranean

Year Built: 2005

Stories: Two Levels

Area: NorthwoodRollback

County: Orange

MLS#: P574241

Status: Active

On Redfin: 125 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Model perfect designer home that includes a Home Theatre plus a separate Casita with full bath! Highly upgraded with dark Mohagany wood floors, Extensive use of granite throughout, Top of the line stainless steel appliances, large great room off kitchen with built-ins, Expansive Master Suite with Jacuzzi and 2 Large walk-in closets. Professionallly landscaped including buit-in BBQ and fantastic Spa with waterfall!! Show & sell today!!”

This realtor is showing some restraint by only using two exclamation points. He still missed a few typos though…

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If today’s seller gets their asking price, they stand to lose $112,500 after a 6% commission.

I can’t help but be struck by the difference in pricing between someone who wants to sell their home and someone who doesn’t. If you look at the times and purchase prices of yesterday’s homes and today’s, you see the steady progression of prices typical of bubble appreciation. These are all comparables. Now you look at today’s home which isn’t selling as a rollback as compared to yesterday’s properties which were offered for sale at double the purchase price. The contrast is remarkable.

A New Dawn

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun,

and I say it’s all right

Little darling, it’s been a long cold lonely winter

Little darling, it feels like years since it’s been here

Here comes the sun, here comes the sun

and I say it’s all right

Here Comes the Sun — The Beatles

Link to Music Video

I love that song. When I hear it it brings me back to the feelings of peace and tranquility I would feel on a spring morning overlooking a Northwoods lake…

WAKE UP!

The bear market is over! Rapid house price appreciation has returned! The winter is over, a new day is dawning, and everything is all right.

NOT.

Kool Aid Man

Well, you would think all was well by the asking prices of today’s WTF trio. The mentality of the herd was evident during the house price rally. No price was too high because someone would always pay more. Making a million dollars on the sale of your home was not a dream, it was an entitlement.

The market is thinning the herd a bit, but there are still pockets of bullishness that display such a callous disregard for reality that one has to ask, “WTF?” Today’s grouping of three neighboring houses is one such display.

Rosegate Estates is a sub-neighborhood in Northwood Pointe which of course is a sub-neighborhood in the Village of Northwood. (When you are as elite as these people, you need to separate yourself from the riff-raff.) These homes are beautiful, and this neighborhood is very desirable. Is it $2,000,000 desirable? You decide…

1 New Dawn Front 1 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,999,800IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,075,000

Purchase Date: 4/25/2002

Address: 1 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 4,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $476

Lot Size: 9,500 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998WTF

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S491641

Status: Active

On Redfin: 73 days

From Redfin, “Stunning Rosegate Estate featuring 5BD/4.5BA, 3-Car Garage, Home Offic e, Butler’s Pantry, Custom Library & Pebbletech Pool & Spa Plus Built-in BBQ! Beautifully appointed with Dramatic Cathedral Ceilings, Custom Tile Floors, Designer Carpet, Custom Blt-Ins, Integrated Speaker System & Home Security System! Gourmet Kitchen w/ Solid GRANITE COUNTERTOPS & Center Island * Blt-In Refrigerator * Viking 6 Burner Cooktop * Blt-In Desk & Walk-In Pantry!

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They knocked $200 off of $2,000,000. Quite a marketing expense. I suppose they could have asked $1,999,999.99.

So this property has doubled in value since early 2002? I guess all the rollbacks we have been seeing didn’t impact the high end, right?

23 New Dawn Front 23 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,999,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $642,000

Purchase Date: 1/13/1998

Address: 23 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 5.5

Sq. Ft.: 5,045

$/Sq. Ft.: $396

Lot Size: 8,000 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998

Stories: 2WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S489401

Status: Active

On Redfin: 92 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Rosegate in Prestigious Northwood Pointe. Desirable plan w/ dramatic curb appeal. Living room w/ vaulted ceilings, separate dining, one bedroom down + office. Gourmet kitchen open to family room. Master suite w/ retreat, master bath highly upgraded. Three secondary bedrooms upstairs + oversized bonus with bath perfect for private suite. Four car garages, tasteful upgrades, private yard and much more. Steps to schools, parks, pool, and minutes from shopping and freeways. Opportunity knocks!”

Opportunity knocks? For what, to be a greater fool or a bagholder? I will pass. Oh, wait, It has a gourmet kitchen. Where could I find another one of those in Irvine?

I wonder if the neighbor at 1 New Dawn used this property as a comparable for pricing. Notice the price is $100 lower? I guess neither one wants to give it away…

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This owner only wants to triple their money for 9 years of ownership. That makes sense. Houses should triple in value every nine years, after all wages did — oops, maybe not. Perhaps I will buy it and sell it for $6,000,000 in 2016. A $4,000,000 profit could fund my retirement.

As always, I have saved the best for last…

46 New Dawn Front 46 New Dawn Kitchen

Asking Price: $2,400,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $1,150,000

Purchase Date: 1/10/2003

Address: 46 New Dawn, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 4,600

$/Sq. Ft.: $522

Lot Size: 10,000 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1998

Stories: 2WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

View: Trees/Woods

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: P587715

Status: Active

On Redfin: 47 days

From Redfin, “Magnificent home in elegant Rosegate Estate with beautiful architectur e featuring 5beds+home office & custom library, 4 car garage, and more! Soaring ceiling, wrought iron staircase, lime stone flooring & custom built-ins throughout the house give it a dramatic personality. gourmet kitchen with granite counter tops & center island over looks beautifully land scaped back & side court yard. Come and Show this stunning beauty of this home!”

Found another gourmet kitchen…

Do you think that justifies the $400,000 higher price?

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So this house has more than doubled in price since 2003?

So are these WTF prices? Can you create a reasonable set of circumstances which justifies these prices? I can’t. I am completely dumfounded. The only conclusion I can reach is that all of these owners are participating in a massive greed off:

How high can we set our prices without embarrassing ourselves? Wait, we have no shame, how high can we set these prices — period. Maybe if all three of us set our prices this high somehow it won’t be as ridiculous?

I am still wondering if 23 New Dawn is angry with 1 New Dawn for undercutting their asking price by $100? After all, this is a race to the top, not a race to the bottom…

Brio New World

Another home falls by the wayside

A few old cushions stuffed with pride

A hand is shaking from the rubble

This spirit is still alive

A servant bares his occupation

Breaks his back just growing old

Never mind his views were taken

Just saw by the rules of old

Less Cities More Moving People — The Fixx

Link to Music Video

Happiness and self-esteem are bi-products of self-discipline and the formation of character; character is forged from habits; habits develop through conscious repetition; conscious repetition only happens through self-discipline; self-discipline emanates from motivation and commitment; motivation and commitment comes from an understanding and appreciation of the benefits of character: happiness and self-esteem. The formula for happiness — life’s virtuous circle — is not difficult to understand, it is just difficult to implement.

Smiley FacePrevious generations had a formula for a “normal,” happy life. You used to save your money until you had a 20% downpayment, then you bought a house, and if you had increases in income, you could move up to a nicer place. Home ownership was a symbol of success. It proved you could save to reach a goal; it proved you were responsible; it made you happy. It was also a ticket to financial security as your home equity would become a savings account you could use to fund your retirement when you downsized to smaller accommodations. These were the rules of old.

The lending industry changed all of that. They eliminated all measures of responsibility including honesty with “liar loans,” integrity with low FICO scores, and accountability with 100% financing. When homes can be purchased by people who lie, cheat and steal, the prestige of home ownership is diminished — no make that eliminated. Home ownership no longer symbolizes sacrifice and success, instead it now is synonymous with greed and gambling in the commodities market. Welcome to our Brave New World.

Enough of my sermonizing…

Today’s properties are all from the Brio community in Westpark. The village of Westpark has held up better than some of the other neighborhoods in Irvine. We have not featured many distressed properties there; however, with the continued deterioration of the low end of the market, even Westpark is showing signs of distress.

2204 Ladrillo Aisle Front 2204 Ladrillo Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $469,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $473,500

Purchase Date: 2/22/2005

Address: 2204 Ladrillo Aisle #72, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $378,640

2nd Mtg. $47,330

Downpayment $47,530

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $392

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1994

Stories: 2

Type: CondominiumRollback

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S498744

Status: Active

On Redfin: 16 days

From Redfin, “Quiet & Private Corner Location. Centrally Located. Upstairs Unit. Gre at Room Open Floorplan. Highly Upgraded with Designer Wall-to Wall Carpet, Tile Kitchen Counters, White Cabinets & White Appliances, Microwave, Dishwasher & Oven Included, Wood Window Blinds, Mirrored Wardrobes, Ceiling Fans, Central Air Conditioning, Custom Interior Paint, Vaulted Ceilings, Recessed Lighting, Fireplace in the Living Room, Cozy Balcony, Rollup Garage Door and Central Fire Sprinklers.”

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This is the only seller with any skin in the game. If they get their asking price, they will lose $31,994 after a 6% commission. In all likelihood, they will lose their entire downpayment, and this might even become a short sale.

2301 Ladrillo Aisle #54

Asking Price: $386,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $319,850

Purchase Date: 7/13/2007

Address: 2301 Ladrillo Aisle #54, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 784

$/Sq. Ft.: $493

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: P589581

Status: Active

On Redfin: 33 days

Fixer-upper

From redfin, “HERE IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN IN WESTPARK, NEEDS SOME TLC BUT WORTH A LOOK, BRING INVESTORS OR FIRST TIME BUYERS, FIREPLACE, ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE, GOOD SIZE BEDROOM W/ WALK-IN CLOSET, DUAL SINKS.”

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This is an interesting property. The previous owner bought in 2001 for $207,500 and HELOCed himself into oblivion. On the way out the door, the previous owner trashed the place. Based on the $/SF, I would estimate Wells Fargo will be lucky to get their foreclosure price. We will see.

These next two properties were recently pulled from the market, but here is the old data…

2401 Landrillo Aisle Fron 2401 Landrillo Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $470,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $515,000

Purchase Date: 1/19/2006

Address: 2401 Ladrillo Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $412,000

2nd Mtg. $103,000

Downpayment $0

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,186

$/Sq. Ft.: $396

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1996

Stories: 1

Type: CondominiumRollback

View: Trees/Woods

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S483934

Status: Active

On Redfin: 115 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Immaculate move in condition property located in the heart of Irvine. Spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. Granite kitchen counter with new stainless steel appliances. Private location with a two car direct access garage. Great association with pools, spa and tennis. Formal dining and living room with a cozy fireplace. Just a short walk to the Plaza vista elementary school and shopping and entertainment.”

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At over 100 days on the market, this property is clearly overpriced, but if this seller manages to get their asking price, minus a 6% commission, they (or the bank) stand to lose $73,200. In reality, they will lose closer to $100,000. Do you think they will just walk away? I do.

1504 Solvay Aisle Front1504 Solvay Aisle Kitchen

Asking Price: $399,999IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $390,000

Purchase Date: 7/30/2004

Address: 1504 Solvay Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

1st Loan $400,000

Downpayment $-10,000

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 800

$/Sq. Ft.: $500

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1

Type: CondominiumRollback

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

MLS#: S498790

Status: Active

On Redfin: 16 days

From Redfin, “Motivated Seller-Great location for UCI Student or Executive. Very cle an and ready for you to move in. Large Kitchen over looking the Dining and Living Rooms. Enjoy this great floor plan with it’s large Master Bedroom with a walkin closet and Private Bath. All on one level Plus Attached Garage Directly into your home.”

With the deterioration in the financing picture, I imagine this seller is even more motivated…

I have to laugh at these asking prices with $999. I guess the seller still wants to squeeze every last dollar out of this sale. Maybe we will have houses priced like gasoline soon with the 9/10 of a cent added on.

Not technically a rollback, but we are looking at a summer 2004 price, and after a 6% commission, this seller still stands to lose $14,000.94. The property records show a $400,000 first mortgage. I don’t know how this came to be as generally a 100% financing deal is an 80/20. Perhaps it reflects the outstanding value on their negative amortization loan, or perhaps they financed through a private party. If they actually got $10,000 back at closing, I don’t see them hanging on and weathering the storm. As Steve Miller would say, “Take the Money and Run.

The low end of the market is being decimated. Everywhere we look we see rollback after rollback. Some neighborhoods hold out longer than others, but all are showing signs of stress. With the further tightening of credit, look for this deterioration to continue, and most likely get much, much worse.

$15,000,000 in Irvine?

How do you value very high end homes? I don’t know. The person who is buying a $15,000,000 property probably isn’t getting a subprime option ARM with 100% financing and a 1% teaser rate. In fact, people who buys homes at these price levels often don’t use financing at all.

I do have to wonder, would you pay $15,000,000 to live in Irvine?

72 Golden Eagle Front 72 Golden Eagle View

Price: $15,000,000

72 GOLDEN EAGLEIrvineRenter

IRVINE, CA 92603

Beds: 6

Baths: 6.5

Sq. Ft.: –

Lot Size: 0.94 acres

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 2007

Stories: Three or More Levels

View(s): Golf Course

Area: Shady Canyon

County: Orange

MLS#: U7001252

Status: Active

On Redfin: 156 days

Unsold in 90+ days

A pleasing departure from other Shady Canyon custom homes. This uniquely elegant 6 bedroom, 6 and 3 half-bath residence, modeled after the famed La Suvera in Tuscany, boasts a dramatic 3-level sunken central courtyard and the area’s best views. Theater, library, 9 car garage, wine cellar, pool, spa and best golf course view. Home to be completed in early 2008.

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Nice place. What do you think?

The Grand Illusion

So if you think your life is complete confusion

Because your neighbors got it made

Just remember that it’s a Grand illusion

And deep inside we’re all the same.

We’re all the same…

The Grand Illusion — Styx

Link to Music Video

I find pretense very distasteful. There is a large subculture in Southern California that expends a great deal of money and energy trying to make other people think they are happy and successful. It is an illusion they cultivate within themselves.

Status is an internal perception about what people believe other people think about them. It has nothing to do with what other people actually do think about them (as if that mattered anyway).

For instance, I think the women on the Real Housewives of Orange County are soulless, gold-digging slags. My derision is only eclipsed by my disrespect for the way they live, what they believe, and what they represent. However, they think I, and everyone else who knows them through the show, believes they are something special, something to envy as if they really have it “going on.” They have status. Not because people regard them highly, but because they think people do. But I digress…

For people who don’t have the internal strength to base their self worth on what they believe about themselves, they end up basing their self worth on their perceptions of what other people think about them. Once they have given their power away to others in this manner, people will expend tremendous amounts of time, energy and money in a vain attempt to influence other people — hence we have fancy cars, opulent houses, designer clothing, and all the other trappings of conspicuous consumption. In my opinion, this is a sickness (their mind control fails on me.) It is a consuming disease which fed on the borrowed money made available during the housing/credit bubble.

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Southern California’s prosperity over the last 7 years has been The Grand Illusion. Our entire economy has been built on borrowed money; our collective self worth has been built on borrowed money. As the credit crunch takes hold and our economy contracts, it will not just be difficult on people financially, it will also be difficult on them emotionally because many people will be forced to abandon their illusions of wealth, prosperity and happiness. One day with their vanity stripped from them, some of the most pretentious will look in the mirror and see how pathetic and insecure they really are.

14222 Matisse

Asking Price: $624,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $572,040

Purchase Date: 5/29/2007

Address: 14222 Matisse Avenue, Irvine, CA 92606

Sales History

Date Price

05/29/2007 $572,040

03/11/2004 $535,000Matisse 1

04/18/2003 $410,500

06/07/1990 $231,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,381

$/Sq. Ft.: $452

Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.

Year Built: 1974

Stories: 1

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Walnut

MLS#: U7003278

Status: Active

On Redfin: 39 days

From Redfin, “THREE BEDROOM TWO BATH HOME IN THE SOUGHT TRACT OF ‘THE COLONY’ THIS HOME IS IN ONE OF THE VERY BEST CITIES IN ORANGE COUNTY, IRVINE!! GREAT SCHOOLS, PARKS, CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT, TRANSPORTATION AND ALL THE GOOD STUFF. ASSOCIATION POOL AND MORE. THIS HOME IS BEING SOLD ‘AS-IS’ AND ‘WHERE-IS’ WITHOUT WARRANTY. COME HOME TO IRVINE TODAY AND START LIVING THE ‘O. C. ‘ LIFESTYLE TODAY!”

Even the banks seem to have a CAPS LOCK problem.

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As you have probably noticed, we are starting to see an increased activity among banks to liquidate their REOs. Unfortunately, they are getting them faster than they are selling them. This is a trend that will likely continue.Matisse 2

Think back to the mass delusion that was the bubble: it was the Grand Illusion. People accepted the absurd as unquestioned truth. Does it seem reasonable that banks would continually offer negative amortization loans with 1% teaser rates; that it would be possible to refinance from one to another as each teaser rate period expired? Is it logical to think serial refinancing could go on forever? I had people tell me this was the new paradigm.

Is it logical to think that real estate can only go up in value? Do you remember the thought experiment in this post: How Sub-Prime Lending Created the Housing Bubble? Does it make sense that you could live off the appreciation of your house; that none of us would actually have to produce anything; that all we would have to do is own real estate to make a living? How can such silly beliefs make it into our collective consciousness? Are we so enamored with our fantasies of wealth that common sense can be ignored?

I don’t have any answers for you. I never did drink the kool aid, so I cannot fully empathize with this system of belief. Each of you that suffered from these delusions, even for a brief time, will have to answer those questions for yourself.

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You will have to pardon my ranting and sermonizing today. Sometimes the insanity of it all builds up inside of me until it finds an outlet — generally on this blog. Remember, I still have my Reservoir of Schadenfreude I am trying to empty.

This concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. My motivation is strong, and my energy level is high, so I will keep on keeping on. I hope you come back next week as we continue to Chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

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The artwork was by Henri Mattise as a reference to the street name. I don’t know who designed the cover of the Styx album, but the similarities in styles was an interesting coincidence.