Ordinary Oakdale

And every Saturday we work in the yard
Pick up the dog do
Hope that it’s hard (whaf whaf)
Take out the garbage and clean out the garage
My friend’s got a Chrysler
I’ve got a Dodge
We’re just ordinary average guys
Ordinary average guys

Ordinary Guys — Joe Walsh

Link to Music Video

Today’s featured property is extraordinary in its ordinariness. Another home in Irvine selling for a loss. This is no longer the exception, it is the rule.

Is that Joe Walsh’s ordinary car in the driveway?

Asking Price: $620,000

Income Requirement: $155,000

Downpayment Needed: $124,000

Purchase Price: $685,000

Purchase Date: 10/21/2005

Address: 9 Oakdale, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,440
$/Sq. Ft.: $431
Lot Size: 4,800 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1977
Stories: One Level
Area: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: P604325
Status: Active
On Redfin: 29 days

From Redfin, “Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 full baths, 1440 Sq Ft, single story home in highly desireable Woodbridge area. Very Quiet, Inner loop location. Remodeled kitchen with newer appliances. Newer concrete tile roof. Very convenient location for shopping, entertainment and excellent schools. Very private back yard with a covered patio. Great woodbridge association ammenities with low HOA Dues ($69.00) and NO MELLO ROOS. PRICE REDUCED TO SELL! Not a short sale.”

Can you find the misspelled word? No description on the MLS is complete without one.

Today’s seller stands to lose $102,200 after a 6% commission, if they get their asking price. An ordinary house and an ordinary seller taking what has become an ordinary $100K+ loss.

Dogs of Rampage

Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don’t discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone
Hell opened up and put on sale
Gather ’round and haggle
For hard cash, we will lie and deceive
Even our masters don’t know the webs we weave

One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world … One world

Invisible transfers, long distance calls,
Hollow laughter in marble halls
Steps have been taken, a silent uproar
Has unleashed the dogs of war
You can’t stop what has begun
Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion
We all have a dark side, to say the least
And dealing in death is the nature of the beast

One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world … One world

The dogs of war don’t negotiate
The dogs of war won’t capitulate,
They will take and you will give,
And you must die so that they may live
You can knock at any door,
But wherever you go, you know they’ve been there before
Well winners can lose and things can get strained
But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.

One world, it’s a battleground
One world, and we will smash it down
One world … One world

Dogs of War — Pink Floyd

Link to Live Music Video

Link to Video from The Wall

Attention all homedebtors: The lender is coming for your house. Steps have been taken, a silent uproar, Has unleashed the dogs of war. You can’t stop what has begun. Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion.

Do you think they care about you? Hollow laughter in marble halls

Is the lender more concerned about you or about themselves? They will take and you will give, And you must die so that they may live.

Do you think you can work something out with them? The dogs of war don’t negotiate. The dogs of war won’t capitulate,

Do you think your mortgage broker is responsible? For hard cash, we will lie and deceive, Even our masters don’t know the webs we weave.

Do you think the problem is widespread? You can knock at any door, But wherever you go, you know they’ve been there before.

Do you think those with good credit are unaffected? Well winners can lose and things can get strained. But whatever you change, you know the dogs remain.

Asking Price: $719,900

Income Requirement: $179,975

Downpayment Needed: $143,980

Bank Purchase Price: $782,000

Bank Purchase Date: 10/11/2007

FB Purchase Price: $815,000

FB Purchase Date: 3/20/2006

Address: 4032 Rampage, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 5
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,700
$/Sq. Ft.: $267
Lot Size: 8,400 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1970
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Northwood
County: Orange
MLS#: S511527
Status: Active
On Redfin: 4 days
Fixer-upper

From Redfin, “Great Opportunity! Bank owned single family home with pool on huge lot. Located in a cul de sac close to park in the Northwoods area of Irvine. Added family/game room. Living room w/ fireplace, formal dining room, kitchenw /nook, one bedroom and bath downstairs. Needs some TLC “

If you submerged this house in water, it would make a great ski jump.

$267/SF: This is a new low in Irvine. It wasn’t long ago that finding a property under $300/SF was difficult, now we are on our way back under the $200/SF mark, particularly for the larger properties. Based on the 20% off the peak we have been seeing, this property is still $60,000 overpriced, so we will likely see the $250/SF barrier fall. If the bank manages to get the full asking price, they stand to lose $105,294 assuming a 6% commission, and assuming the auction price did not already cause a loss on a second mortgage.

For those of you offended by some of my selections of fine art, please do not look below.

DANTE ET VIRGILE AUX ENFERS by William Bouguereau

Dogs of war and men of hate
With no cause, we don’t discriminate
Discovery is to be disowned
Our currency is flesh and bone

Tainted Market

Sometimes I feel I’ve got to
Run away I’ve got to
Get away
From the pain that you drive into the heart of me
The love we share
Seems to go nowhere
And I’ve lost my light
For I toss and turn I can’t sleep at night

(chorus)
Once I ran to you (I ran)
Now I’ll run from you
This tainted love you’ve given
I give you all a boy could give you
Take my tears and that’s not nearly all
Oh…tainted love
Tainted love

Tainted Love — Soft Cell

Link to Music Video

Does this song describe every homeowner’s and speculator’s relationship with the housing market? Everyone was so enamored with real estate during the bubble. However, now the fickle real estate market has turned, and speculators are losing money, losing sleep, and losing their love of real estate: tainted love.

Today, I am going to continue the great work done by Effenheimer (formerly OC Fliptrack) on the Brio Community. Nowhere is the silliness of the bubble more apparent than the pricing of 1 bedroom units in this development. Sorry if this post is a little long, but it is worth reading. Carry on.

Asking Price: $319,000

Income Requirement: $79,750

Downpayment Needed: $63,800

Purchase Price: $232,000

Purchase Date: 11/21/2002

Address: 2304 Ladrillo Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606
Beds: 1
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 800
$/Sq. Ft.: $399
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Mediterranean
Year Built: 1994
Stories: One Level
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S505561
Status: Active
On Redfin: 52 days

From Redfin, “PRICE REDUCED TO SELL FAST!!!, Rare direct access to Garage, Newer Carpet, Central A/C, Ceiling Fan, Cozy Fireplace, sandstone color paint, Lighting under Kitchen Cabinets, and Water Purifier/Filter system. Very QUIET inside location, peaceful neighborhood, close to shopping, Association POOL and TENNIS courts for Brio only. Also, access to two other Master association pools and 5 tennis courts. Will go Quickly!!!! Entertaining ALL reasonable offers.”

Will go Quickly!!!! There’s an optimist. Is the four exclamation points a manifestation of wishful thinking?

INTERMITTENT caps LOCK again.

There were several transactions on these units in 2006 for over $400,000, despite the fact that the rental value is about $150,000. Prices have held up reasonably well in Brio, although the transaction volume has dropped off considerably.

So why is this seller dropping their price so radically to sell it? Perhaps the REO has something to do with it…

Asking Price: $353,310

Income Requirement: $88,327

Downpayment Needed: $70,662

Bank Purchase Price: $319,850

Bank Purchase Date: 7/13/2007

FB Purchase Price: $141,000

FB Purchase Date: 5/28/1999

Address: 2301 Ladrillo Aisle #54, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 784
$/Sq. Ft.: $451
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1995
Stories: One Level
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: P589581
Status: Active
On Redfin: 109 days
Unsold in 90+ days
Fixer-upper

From Redfin, “BEST VALUE IN ALL OF WESTPARK, GREAT LOCATION, SELLER MOTIVATED, HERE IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN IN WESTPARK, NEEDS SOME TLC BUT WORTH A LOOK, BRING INVESTORS OR FIRST TIME BUYERS, FIREPLACE, ATTACHED ONE CAR GARAGE, GOOD SIZE BEDROOM W/ WALK-IN CLOSET, DUAL SINKS.”

This appears to be a HELOC implosion. The former owner took the money, trashed the place, and left. Nice.

It looks to me that our featured seller has seen the light. This REO was purchased for $319,850 which coincidentally is the asking price of our featured property. The seller knows the bank is going to reduce their price until this unit is sold, and they know that $319,850 is where the market is at (actually if the bank bought it at auction the market is probably lower.) I think this is a smart move by our featured seller. If they can get in front of the bank, they may get the only buyer in the market. They still have some equity left, so if they move quickly, they might actually see some of it.

There are a few other sellers in this neighborhood who will not be too happy because of the properties profiled above…

Asking Price: $390,000

Income Requirement: $97,500

Downpayment Needed: $78,000

Purchase Price: $339,000

Purchase Date: 2/19/2004

Address: 3105 Ladrillo Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 800
$/Sq. Ft.: $488
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1995
Stories: One Level
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: P598440
Status: Active
On Redfin: 62 days

From Redfin, “* * * * HIGHLY desirable and upgraded ground level in exclusive neigborhood with direct access garage. White fireplace highligts cozy living room. Beatiful laminate flooring througout the house. Designer paint, new crown moulding and baseboards. Association pool, tennis courts, and parks. Close to shopping, movies, restaurants, parks. THIS IS A MUST SEE!!!

neigborhood, highligts, Beatiful, througout, moulding: I count 5 misspelled words in that description. Doh! BTW, what does this realtor have against the letter “h” after a “g”?

Do you like how they got the flower in the corner of the picture? Of course, it throws off their exposure and makes for an awful photo, but it has a flower in it.

This is going to be a rollback. The competition is already under their 2004 purchase price. This isn’t good for them, but others have it worse…

Asking Price: $389,000

Income Requirement: $97,250

Downpayment Needed: $77,800

Purchase Price: $390,000

Purchase Date: 7/30/2004

Address: 1504 Solvay Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 784
$/Sq. Ft.: $496
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1995
Stories: One Level
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S505997
Status: Active
On Redfin: 48 days

From Redfin, “This unit in BRIO is exceptional. Recently refurbished and super clean. Well-designed floorplan offers super living space that is easy to maintain. Idyllic walkway offers a somewhat secluded home that is nevertheless walking distance from shops and eateries! Well managed complex offers great amenities without the sky-high fees (as in local highrises) Motivated seller can respond to offers quickly. Make it yours today!”

This seller is in a world of hurt.

Think about their state of mind. They were in a state of apprehension and denial hoping to get out near breakeven. Their competition was priced in the same general range, so they hoped they could convince a buyer that their place was “better” and somehow they would get out from under.

Then the REO happened, but this was just one property, so it shouldn’t be a big problem, they would just have to be patient while the bank got rid of the competition. Then, suddenly, the featured property drops their price 20%. Talk about a disaster. They just lost $80,000! Yikes!

With two properties selling for $320,000, it is no longer an aberration, it is the new neighborhood property value.

Asking Price: $405,000

Income Requirement: $101,250

Downpayment Needed: $81,000

Purchase Price: $330,000

Purchase Date: 2/20/2004

Address: 203 Tropea Aisle, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 1
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 800
$/Sq. Ft.: $506
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1996
Stories: One Level
Area: Westpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S482836
Status: Active
On Redfin: 209 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “BEAUTIFUL TURNKEY CONDO!! This condo has it all. Entrance has designer tile leading to beautiful laminate wood floors. Glass block divider between kitchen and living adds a distinctive touch. Modern track lighting in kitchen with new designer ceiling fan in dining room. Soft designer colors throughout. Bathroom has new cast iron tub & glass slider. Designer tile in bath/dressing area. New hot water heater. Direct entry to garage from kitchen. Beautiful home!!!”

What do you think of the glass block divider? I don’t get it. Wouldn’t you rather just have it be open? Glass block is great for letting exterior light into bathrooms, but I am not so sure about its use as an interior dividing wall.

Here is the last of our dreamers holding out for over $400,000. It is not going to happen.

Can you see the disaster playing out? Today’s series of properties illustrates exactly how a price collapse proceeds. We are witnessing the first leg down of price drops: 20% off the top, and folks, we aren’t even half way there yet…

Link to another music video

Some closing thoughts on California’s love affair with real estate from the J. Geils Band:

I’ve been through diamonds
I’ve been through minks
I’ve been through it all
Love stinks

(Love stinks)
Love stinks yeah yeah
(Love stinks)
Love stinks yeah yeah
(Love stinks)
Love stinks yeah yeah
(Love stinks)
Love stinks yeah yeah

Hit Me

I’ve been thinking ’bout what you have done to me
The damage is much deeper than you’ll ever see
Hit me like a hammer to my head
I wonder were you pushed or were you led?

Why did you do it? Why did you do that thing to me?
Why did you do it? Why did you do that thing to me?
The only one who knows the truth,
Man it’s him, me and you.

Why Did You Do It? — Stretch

Link to Music Video

People who bought during the rally must feel like they have been hit in the head. Do you think anyone who bought in 2004 thought they would be selling at a loss? Since most people are adverse to taking responsibility for their own decisions, many will blame the market itself. They wonder, why did you do it? That evil market, who can predict it?

On September 22, I wrote a post titled the Lowest Priced 3/2s in Irvine. I thought it might be interesting to see where we are now.

Our new low price leader…

Price: $389,999

93 Tarocco
Irvine, CA 92618
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,000
$/Sq. Ft.: $390
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1983
Stories: One Level
Area: Orangetree
County: Orange
MLS#: S503783
Status: Active
On Redfin: 63 days
Located adjacent to Irvine Valley College this unit with three bedrooms is ideal for investors as the areas location makes it attractive for student leasing. Originally a two bedroom unit, the owner added a very nice third which increases the income potential. The property is close to all major roads and convenient for the post office, parks, golfing, eating and entertainment.

Notice how they are trying to sell this as investment property. Unless this is getting about $3,500 a month rent to turn a positive cashflow, only a speculator betting on appreciation would pay this price. It is worth about $180,000 to an investor demanding positive cashflow.

.
Sales History
Date Price

05/03/2004 $395,000

As you can see, this is another 2004 rollback. In the race to the bottom, this property has surpassed the competition.
From the old post…

Old Price: $425,000

New Price: $395,000

177 Briarwood, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,150
$/Sq. Ft.: $370
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1978
Stories: One Level
Area: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: S486749
Status: Active
On Redfin: 139 days
Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “* * FANTASTIC BUY * * 3 BR 2 BA single level with HUGE backyard, come see the rose garden. Great Location. Everything has been upgraded, from the neutral tiled floors to the granite counters, kitchen cabinets & appliances. 3 Large bedrooms & 2 upgraded bathrooms also with granite & newer cabinets . Newer mirror closets with organizer. It is very lite and brite and definately a 10++ Newer water heater. Walk to all the fantastic amenities, pool, spa, park, tennis, basket & volleyball, schools & shopping.”

HUGE backyard. It is a freakin’ patio! Give me a break.

A 10++? Maybe on a scale from 1 to 100.

” lite and brite and definately” Three misspellings in 5 words, congratulations. I hope she is thankful for the word “and.”

How can realtors say stupid things like this?

Old Price: $429,000

New Price: $419,000

133 Oval RD #2, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,110
$/Sq. Ft.: $386
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 1972
Stories: Two Levels
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S495498
Status: Active
On Redfin: 78 days

From Redfin, “BEST PRICED & MOST REMODELLED UNIT ON THE MARKET. BRAZILIAN CHERRY WOOD FLOORS, RECESSED LIGHTING, REFURBISHED CABINETS, NEW APPLIANCES, MAYTAG STOVE, SCRAPED CEILINGS, NEW PAINT, BRAND NEW GORGEOUS DECORATIVE BATHROOM HAS TILES/BORDER ON WALLS & GRANITE SINK. SURROUND SYSTEM IN LIVING ROOM, MASTER WITH WALK IN CLOSET & CLOSET ORGANIZERS. SPACIOUS LAUNDRY ROOM. EXTRA STORAGE OUTSIDE. BEAUTIFUL SLATE FLOORS IN LARGE BACK PATIO. OPEN FLOORPLAN. SEE THE VIRTUAL TOUR!! PRICE REDUCED”

WHY THE ALL CAPS? I find all caps to be very hard on my eyes. It is painful to read that description.

Are any of you impressed by Brazilian Cherry Wood floors? Sounds rare and exotic, doesn’t it?

As you can see, we are now below the $400,000 barrier for 3 bedroom 2 bath homes in Irvine. Another milestone on our journey to the bottom.

Mortgage Magma: The Coming Eruption of Option ARM's

“Now, I don’t know, I don’t know where I’m a gonna go
when the volcano blow.
Let me say it now,
I don’t know, I don’t know where I’m a gonna go
when the volcano blow.”

Jimmy Buffett – Volcano video.

You could hear women lamenting, children crying, men shouting. There were some so afraid of death that they prayed for death. Many raised their hands to the gods, and even more believed that there were no gods any longer and that this was one unending night for the world.” —Pliny the Younger, circa A.D. 97 to 109, describing the Vesuvius eruption.

Ancient Pompeians, “poured their savings into their houses. Wealthy people enriched their homes with elegant courtyard gardens decorated with frescoes of plants and flowers and an abundance of modern conveniences…” Similarly, denizens of the O.C. take much pride in their modern day villas.

Herculaneum has been described as, “…a dream town. Overlooking the Bay of Naples, it was the aristocratic dwelling of a wealthy elite, a cluster of fabulous villas and gardens.” The residents there must have felt lucky and privileged, not unlike residents in some modern day Irvine Ranch villas…with option ARMs…the dream will end suddenly…

I posted about the ugliness of the option ARMs in the forums, but it was suggested that I post about it on the blog as well. I think this is the most misunderstood loan in the industry which makes it even more misunderstood by the ~~victims~~ borrowers. Worse yet, the lenders who made these loans failed to properly assess the interest rate risk by overdosing on Kool Aid.

Most borrowers thought that short term interest rates wouldn’t increase 2%-3% in less than three years. This loan has a mandatory recast in year five, but if rates increase at a faster rate that recast happens sooner. A recast is when the loan will reset and the borrower will have to start paying principal and interest. It also will be amortized over 25 years if the recast happens in year five.

Lenders thought it was a good idea to let anyone sell this loan… and sell it on the fact that they can make 3% yield spread premium on the back end. Yield spread premium is paid by the lender to the broker. The amount is determined by the broker by adjusting the rate higher or lower. The higher the rate the more YSP the broker will make. However, with option ARMs it is how high the margin is. The real interest rate is the margin plus the index. Option ARMs use many different indexes, but a common index it the MTA.

Like volcanologists, who ask, “…How large will the eruption be? We ask, how big will the option ARM disaster be? Explosive, like Vesuvius, or effusive like Kilauea?

Volcanologists believe that technology will enable them to predict when an eruption is about to occur. But, they are still unable to pinpoint the eruption’s likely size or character. However, the impending Option Arm disaster is quite easy to predict…

These data point towards a Vesuvius sized disaster…

For the first example, I used a $500k loan amount, 2.75% margin, 1% minimum start payment and calculated the approximate MTA index with the first payment starting in January 2005.

Year 1:

As you will notice, the minimum payment only goes up 7.5% a year. That is, in year two, the payment went from $1608.20 X 7.5% = $1728.82 but the real interest rate increased nearly a full 1% higher. The minimum payment doesn’t even cover the interest and this deferred interest has added over $9200 to the loan balance.

Year 2:

Year 3:

Year 4… the OMFG year:

In August 2008, the payment recasts because the loan has reached the maximum negative amortization of 110% of the original $500k loan amount. Now the ~~victim’s~~ borrower’s payment more than doubles from $1997.86 to $4132.53 because they are forced to pay principal and interest on the new balance of $550k.

I don’t know about you, but if my house payment were to double it would be one hell of shock. Some in the business will say that some of these loans had a max of 115% of negative amortization. Great! That only delays the pain until December of 2009– one month before the mandatory five year recast. However 115% means the balance is now $575k and the payment will be $4393.27 and that is assuming interest rates do not change.

Here is what the loan looks like after 30 years. As if someone would actually be able to keep it:

{adsense}

In January, of 2005 it would be fairly easy to get a 30 year fixed rate loan for 5.75%. The total interest paid would be $550k for a total of $1.05mil. The option ARM loan costs about $336k more than the 30 year fixed over the life of the loan. However, that is if interest rates stayed the same as they are now. Of course, it could go down but it can just as easily go up over that time frame.

Some will argue that they will sell or refinance before any problems arise. I say good luck with either right now, but that is another story. If the home could be sold for $625k this December, the option ARM owner has a loan balance of roughly $540k and has made payments of roughly $62k. This would equal (excluding fees and commissions) a net of $23k. The the thirty year fixed owner would have a loan balance of roughly $479k and made payments of roughly $105k. This would equal (excluding fees and commissions) a net of $41k.

Now here is what this loan looks like when the ~~victim~~ borrower got whacked. To get the 3% YSP (this is the $15k rebate the lender pays the broker for the loan and has to be disclosed) the broker needs to up the margin to about 3.85% and stick them with a three year prepayment penalty. I cannot even begin to tell you how many chop shop brokers that used the 3% YSP as motivation for their “loan officers” to sell this loan. I moved the first payment up to July 2005 because this is when people really started to sell this loan. It also shows a more accurate adjustment of the MTA index.

The first six months and 2006:

Take a look at when the loan recasts. I wouldn’t want to be at their house for Christmas:

This is what it must look like when that reset hits:

Now here is the rub. Let’s pretend this ~~victim~~ borrower bought this place for $625k, put 20% down, and today it still is worth $625k. I know it’s pure fantasy, but play along with me. Since December is month 30 they still have their three year prepayment penalty of about $25k, $5k of loan fees and $50k added to the balance making the LTV 93%. Anyone know a lender doing jumbo cash out refi’s up to 95% LTV?

Of course, they could wait until July when their prepay is up and pay $26k+ in monthly payments but their loan balance hasn’t changed much and they still would be at 90% LTV. Anyone know of a lender doing jumbo rate an term refi’s at 90% LTV and do you think they will be doing it in July 2008? What happens if the price of the home goes down 5% or 10%?

Worse yet, what if they only put 10% down? Then they would be upside down right now. If the price went down 10% they would owe $50k more than the home is worth. Get the jingle mail ready, because the only other choice here is to pay more than everyone else for a depreciating asset.

This is just the beginning of a scenario that is about to get a lot worse. I think that after reading this you will think that this chart underestimates how soon the option ARMs are going to start recasting.

{adsense}

Also, for some more info on the acceleration in the default rates Calculated Risk has a great post on the subject and as usual some great charts. All I can say when I see those charts is:

“Ground, she movin’ under me.
Tidal waves out on the sea.
Sulphur smoke up in the sky.
Pretty soon we learn to fly.”

Irvine Housing Blog

Established September 2006

Ordinary Oakdale

Dogs of Rampage

Tainted Market

Hit Me

Mortgage Magma: The Coming Eruption of Option ARM's