Making a Small Fortune in Real Estate

Mack the Knife – Frank Sinatra

The people who bought properties as flips in 2007 had to put their own money into the transaction. All of these people made a small fortune by starting out with a larger one.

One of the myths of the real estate bulls is the rich-foreigners-will-save-us fallacy. This myth has a hint of racism to it: foreigners must be culturally superior to have the money to come to the rescue of us poor Americans. Whenever I see this argument raised, I always link to a post done by Rich Toscano at Piggington.com called The Dumb Money. As stated in the article, “Far from being a positive fundamental, a sudden excess of foreign
participation in an asset market is indicative of ill-informed
speculative money at work. When the foreigners really start piling on,
it’s always a good sign that the end of the bubble is nigh.” As you might have surmised, today’s featured property was a flip attempt by someone with a non-Westernized name (as was yesterday’s.) The stupidity of this particular flip is breathtaking to me. It was purchased as REO for well over what the lender paid, and now it is being offered for much less. The entire loss is going to be the flipper’s money.

If the property looks familiar, it is because we have featured it before: Brookside Comp Killer.

Asking Price: $660,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $165,000

Downpayment Needed: $132,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $5,500

Purchase Price: $740,000

Purchase Date: 12/19/2007

Address: 4342 Brookside Street, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 4
Baths: 1
Sq. Ft.: 2,200
$/Sq. Ft.: $300
Lot Size: 5,623

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary
Year Built: 1971
Stories: 1 Level
Area: Portola Springs
County: Orange
MLS#: Y803965
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 3 days

REO! REPO HOME AT A GREAT PRICE. 4 BEDROOMS IN A GREAT AREA OF IRVINE.
SELLERS MOTIVATED SUBMITT TODAY. CALL LISTING AGENT FOR SHOWING

That description is a lie (and annoying for several reasons.) This is not REO. Do you think the seller is so embarrassed that they are losing so much money on the deal so quickly that they are pretending it is still bank owned?Knife Catcher Award

This property was REO when the bank purchased it on 12/17/2007 for $678,340. It was sold to a woman “as her sole and separate property” on 12/19/2007 for $740,000. Perhaps the husband knew it was a dumb idea? The lender had to be thankful someone was foolish enough to purchase a house for over $60,000 more than they paid at auction, particularly given the sorry state of the market last December. A lender was willing to loan 80% of the $740,000 purchase price, but the owner had to put $148,000 down. If this property sells for its asking price, the owner stands to lose $119,600 after a 6% commission. Basically, they lost $120K in 6 months. That knife was quite sharp.

I doubt a regular reader of the IHB would have made that deal. I must admit, I feel a bit of schadenfreude on that one 😉

Thus concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come back next week as we continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

🙂

.

Oh, the shark has pretty teeth, dear
And he shows ’em, pearly white
Just a jack knife has Macheath, dear
And he keeps it, keeps it way out of sight

When that shark bites with his teeth, dear
Scarlet billows, they begin to spread
Fancy white gloves though has Macheath, dear
So there’s rarely, never one trace of red

On the sidewalk, one Sunday mornin’
Lies a body oozin’ life
Someone’s sneaking ’round the corner
Could that someone, perhaps, perchance, be Mack the Knife?

From a tugboat on the river goin’ slow
A cement bag, it is dropping down
Yeah, the cement is just for the weight, dear
You can make a large bet Macheath is back in town

My man Louie Miller, he split the scene, babe
After drawin’ out all the bread from his stash
Now Macheath spends just like a pimp, babe
Do you suppose that our boy, he did something rash?

Ah, old Satchmo, Louis Armstrong, Bobby Darrin
They did this song nice, Lady Ella too
They all sang it, with so much feeling
That Old Blue Eyes, he ain’t gonna add nothing new

But with Quincy’s big band, right behind me
Swinging hard, Jack, I know I can’t lose
When I tell you, all about Mack the Knife babe
It’s an offer, you can never refuse

We got George Benson, we got Newman & Foster
We got the Brecker Brothers, and Hampton’s bringing up the rear
All these bad cats, and more, are in the band now
They make the greatest sounds, you ever gonna hear

Hey Sookie Taudry, Jenny Diver, Polly Peachum, Old Miss Lulu Brown
Oh the line forms, on the right dear
Now that Macheath, I mean that man Macheath
Yeah he’s bad, mercy mercy
Yeah he’s badder than old Leroy Brown
You better lock your door, and call the law
Because Macheath’s, that bum,
He’s back in town

Mack the Knife – Frank Sinatra

A Foolish Flip

Sugar Shack — Jimmy Gilmer and The Fireballs

There were people attempting flips in 2007. There were looking for their own Sugar Shack to sweeten their lives. Prices in our area were still at or near the peak, but all the signs were pointing to a downturn which was already underway in many markets. Residential real estate markets are dominated by amateurs because professionals do not bother with the headaches of what is generally a poor investment. Non-professionals by and large have no idea what they are doing, and they only make money when they get lucky because the emotions of speculators always lead them astray (remember Speculation or Investment?) Today’s featured property was purchased after the collapse of subprime was front page news in March of 2007. Our would-be Donald Trump either wasn’t watching the news, or he truly believed the subprime containment BS put out by the media. This guy actually put some of his own money into the deal, so it wasn’t just gambling with the lenders money. You would think if someone was going to put their own money in the deal they might have a clue about what he was doing: apparently not.

36 Gillman Street Outside

Asking Price: $699,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $174,750

Downpayment Needed: $139,800

Monthly Equity Burn: $5,825

Purchase Price: $850,000

Purchase Date: 4/4/2007

Address: 36 Gillman Street, Irvine, CA 92612

Short Sale

Beds: 5
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,294
$/Sq. Ft.: $305
Lot Size: 5,220

Sq. Ft.

Property Type Detached, Single Family Residence
Year Built: 1965
Stories: 2 Level
County: Orange
MLS#: S08079260
Source: MRMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

You would love this beautiful home in this college community. Motivated
Seller needs to sell quickly. Short Sale subject to lender???s
approval. Please contact showing agent for details. Please do not
disturb occupants.

Is this another example of a house being sold or foreclosed with an unwitting renter inside? Anyone think this landlord is skimming the rent?

The property was purchased for $850,000 with a $637,500 first mortgage, a $170,000 second mortgage, and a $42,500 downpayment. The 5% downpayment evaporated even before he closed as he overpaid for the house. When the credit crunch hit in August, the property values really plummeted, and now he is asking $699,000. If this house sells for its asking price, the total loss on the property after a 6% commission will be $192,940. The seller will lose his $42,500, and the second mortgage holder will lose $150,440. The lesson for our speculator will not be as tough as it is for the lender, but losing $42,500 along with trashing your credit cannot be a good time.

.

Theres a crazy little shack beyond the tracks
And evrybody calls it the sugar shack
Well, its just a coffeehouse and its made out of wood
Expresso coffee tastes mighty good
Thats not the reason why Ive got to get back
To that sugar shack, whoa baby
To that sugar shack.

Theres this cute little girlie, shes aworkin there
A black leotard and her feet are bare
Im gonna drink a lotta coffee, spend a little cash
Make that girl love me when I put on some trash
You can understand why Ive got to get back
To that sugar shack, whoa baby
To that sugar shack, yeah honey
To that sugar shack, whoa yes
To that sugar shack.

Now that sugar shack queen is amarried to me, yeah yeah
We just sit around and dream of those old memories
Ah, but one of these days Im gonna lay down tracks
In the direction of that sugar shack
Just me and her yes were gonna go back
To that sugar shack,
Whoa uh ohT
o that sugar shack, yeah honey
To our sugar shack

Sugar Shack — Jimmy Gilmer and The Fireball

My House Is Worth More

Luxurious — Gwen Stefani

Some people still have not figured out there is an epic price crash taking place. When you look at the asking prices in Irvine, people are still of the opinion their houses are worth at or above peak prices. The fact is that prices have dropped more than 20% and they continue their downward descent. Even when confronted with neighboring properties selling for less, people lapse into denial and believe “my house is worth more.” I guess $15,000 in pergraniteel can add $150,000 in luxury value to a property. Who knew?

206 Tuberose Inside

Asking Price: $800,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $200,000

Downpayment Needed: $160,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $6,666

Purchase Price: $556,000

Purchase Date: 7/24/2003

Address: 206 Tuberose, Irvine, CA 92603

Kool Aid Man

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,500
$/Sq. Ft.: $533
Lot Size: 999

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 2003
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: P639605
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

Gourmet Kitchen Award Fabulous home at corner lot. Catheral elegant living room, formal
dining room with beautiful columns. Cozy family room with gold package
surround sound. Gourmet kitchen with walk-in pantry. Maple cabinets
with stainless steels. Double Oven, Top of The Line Granite Countertops
with Full Back Flash. Beautiful Custom Designed Draperies, Wood Blinds,
& Shutters. Two Tone Paint with Designer Touch Travertine on 1st
Floor & all Baths. French doors to private courtyard. Master suite
with walk-in closet. All Baths are Beautifully Upgraded W/Granite
Countertops, Maple Cabinets, Hardware Fixtures and Designed Travertine
Floor

What is that picture supposed to show me? The flash of the photographer? The adjacent house through the window? Are they that proud of the cabinets and window treatments? Perhaps its the plants?

Catheral elegant living room? Do you go there for a catheter? Maybe it will cure your Tuberose?

gold package
surround sound? Now I see where the value comes from. They have gold buried in the speaker system.

Full Back Flash?

Title Case, or Random capital Letters?

Notice the pergraniteel is mentioned several times.

Does that description scream “pretentious bull$hit?”

Here is the bullet-point recap:

WTF

  • The property was purchased in 2003, and the owner put 20% down.
  • On 10/20/2004 they refinanced with a 1% Option ARM for $650,000 taking out their downpayment money plus an additional $96,000.
  • On 4/29/2005 they refinanced with another 1% Option ARM for $650,000 and took out a stand-alone second for $90,000.
  • On 6/30/2006 they refinanced for $750,000 and opened a HELOC for $137,000.
  • On 10/31/2006 they refinanced again for $749,000 and opened a HELOC for $142,200.
  • On 2/26/2007 they refinanced one last time for $750,000 and opened a HELOC for $100,000.

It isn’t clear whether or not this last HELOC has been tapped. It is clear that with the $750,000 first mortgage that these people have taken out their initial equity plus an additional $196,000. If they have tapped the HELOC, then their total mortgage equity withdrawal is closer to $296,000. If this property sells for its WTF asking price, the first mortgage will be paid off which is why this asking price is what it is.

I had to laugh at the listing price history. This property was listed for $750,000 and then raised to $800,000 a few days later. I guess they didn’t want to give it away with all this frantic spring buying activity. This price is ridiculous at $533/SF in a neighborhood plummeting under the $400/SF mark. So what would this place successfully sell for in today’s market? The neighbor at 210 Tuberose recently sold for $715,000. Another neighbor at 224 Tuberose just went into escrow for $649,900. This is a major comp killer. It is an identical floorplan about 100′ away. For today’s seller to get their asking price, they must find a buyer stupid enough to pay $150,000 over recent comps, and do it with a large amount of cash. Lenders will only loan 80% of the recent $649,900 comp price, so the remainder will need to be cash. I hope their place is very luxurious.

.

Gwen StefaniWorking so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Champagne kisses hold me in your lap of luxury
I only want to fly first class desires, you’re my limousine
So elegant the way we ride, our passion it just multiplies
There’s platinum lightning in the sky
Look I’m livin’ like a queen

This kind of love is getting expensive
We know how to live baby
We’re luxurious like Egyptian cotton
We’re so rich in love we’re rollin’ in cashmere
Got it in fifth gear baby
Diamond in the rough is looking so sparkly

Working so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Sugar, honey, sexy baby
When we touch it turns to gold
Sensitive and delicate kinda like a tuberose
You know you are my treasure chest
It’s pure perfection when we kiss and
You’re my Mr.. I’m your Miss
Gonna be until we’re old

This kind of love is getting expensive
We know how to live baby
We’re luxurious like Egyptian cotton

Working so hard every night and day
And now we get the pay back
Trying so hard saving up the paper
Now we get to lay back

Luxurious — Gwen Stefani

There Goes the Neighborhood

Walnut Tree — Keane

Do you remember our recent discussion on Financing in a Declining Market? This REO is going to obliterate the neighborhood comps. Any property the lender considers comparable to this one will not get good financing (it doesn’t matter what we might think is comparable, it only matters what the lender thinks.) Remember our optimistic seller one block over on Sweetan Street? Any lender is almost certainly going to consider today’s featured property to be a comparable, and with a $400,000 lower asking price, anyone looking to buy the property on Sweetan Street is going to have to come up with almost $500,000 cash to close the deal (Those sellers are pwned.) This is the first real jaw-dropping price buster we have seen here in Irvine. It is happening everywhere else, and now it is happening here as well.

5228 Walnut Kitchen

Asking Price: $351,500IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $87,875

Downpayment Needed: $70,300

Monthly Equity Burn: $2,929

Purchase Price: $475,000

Purchase Date: 7/30/2004

Address: 5228 Walnut Ave #10, Irvine, CA 92604

REO

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,460
$/Sq. Ft.: $241
Lot Size: 1,700

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Condominium
Style: Contemporary, Townhouse
Year Built: 1980
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: El Camino Real
County: Orange
MLS#: S534553
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 3 days

Wow!**Bank Owned REO this Is The One You’ve Been Waiting For**great
Floorplan**terrific Price**3 Bedrooms + Office/Loft Deck With View Of
Newport Hills**light, Open Floorplan**cozy Fireplace** Large Sliding
Glass Door Leads To Huge Rear Yard**plenty Of Room For A Family,
Entertaining, Gardening**priced To Sell Now!! No Mello Roos!

5228 Walnut GardenWow!** The realtor had fun with punctuation. and Random capital Letters.

Bank Owned REO? Bank owned real estate owned?

Plenty of room for Gardening? Looks like they need to weed the bricks they are growing.

Did you notice that this is also the first 3/2 listed for sale under the median income in Irvine?

So what is this property worth? It is selling near breakeven for an owner-occupant. An astute observer from yesterday, C. Cammack, rents nearby for $2,065. There are also nearby properties going for $1950. Let’s say this place rents for $2,000. With a 160 GRM, the value is $320,000. Some knife catcher will probably bid near $400,000 for this place today, but the asking price is getting very close to the owner-occupant breakeven. Of course, many would not want to own and occupy this dwelling, but prices in Irvine are nearing the range where they are affordable again.

Those of you who have been wondering why I have been showing so many low-end properties lately can find your answers in the graph below I borrowed from Calculated Risk:

The low end of the market is where the action is with properties like todays. It is leading the race to the bottom. The lender who foreclosed actually had $520,200 in debt on the property due to a refinance in late 2005. The people who lost the property in foreclosure walked away with their downpayment plus an additional $45,000. If this property sells for its asking price, the lender is going to lose $189,790. If there are 4,365 distressed properties in OC under $500K, and if the lenders are losing an average of $100,000 per unit, there is $4,365,000,000 in losses just at the low end in Orange County, California. Do you think the lenders have already written this off? I doubt it…

.

Once there was a great storm,
Pushed my head beneath the waves,
I was gone.
Underneath the walnut tree,
Where you said you’d wait for me,
And I waited a long, long time
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time.
Why, why do I come here?
Seeking out the memories I hold dear,
‘Cause you put your spell on me,
Made me live in memory,
And im frozen in just the wrong time.
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time,
I waited a long, long time.

Walnut Tree — Keane

The Place You Rent is For Sale

Life for Rent — Dido

Attention occupant of today’s featured property: it is for sale. From the MLS description, “Driveby Only Please! Do Not Disturb Occupant. No Sign, Tenant not aware Property is For Sale.” Well, they are now. If any of you know this renter, please go tell them what is going on — the power of the internet.

Today is a great case study in what a property is really worth. We have both an asking price and a statement of what the unit currently rents for. That should eliminate most of the conjecture concerning rent. I am going to show the calculations for cost of ownership and calculate the breakeven amount for an owner occupant.

437 Deerfield Kitchen

Asking Price: $515,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $128,750

Downpayment Needed: $103,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,291

Purchase Price: $495,000

Purchase Date: 4/16/2004

Address: 437 Deerfield #130, Irvine, CA 92606

Rental

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,367
$/Sq. Ft.: $377
Lot Size:
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Cape Cod
Year Built: 1985
Stories: 2 Levels
Area: Walnut
County: Orange
MLS#: U8002422
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 5 days

Driveby Only Please! Do Not Disturb Occupant. No Sign, Tenant not aware
Property is For Sale. Sale Subject to existing Lease $2,150./Month
(Expires Nov. 2008). Ideal End Unit Location with Direct Garage Access
(1 Car) plus 1 space across driveway. Charming Windwood Townhome. 2
Story, 2 Master Suites, Remodeled Tiled 2 Baths and 1/2 Guest
downstairs with 3rd bedroom Den/Office down. Inside laundry. Open
Kitchen, Eat at Bar and large Diningroom. Vaulted Ceilings, Slate
Fireplace with slider opens to large L-shaped Patio. Lovely
neighborhood with parks, Trails, Tennis&Sports Courts, Community
Pool/SPA. Walking distance to shopping center, bus station, school and
easy access to freeways. Washer, dryer and refrigeratior included. Call
Audrey with Questions 714-612-9557. Interior Inspection ONLY with
Accepted/Qualified Offer.

refrigeratior?

For those of you who read from out-of-state, you can see that a crappy 3/2 in Irvine still rents for more than $2,000. This property is borderline on whether or not an owner-occupant would want to live here long term.

The following are calculations for the cost of ownership. If you want a refresher course on these costs, see the post Rent Versus Own:

$ 359,590 Purchase Price
$ 71,918 Downpayment @20%
$ 287,672 Mortgage @ 80%
$1,818.28 Mortgage Payment @ 6.5%
$ 299.66 Property Taxes @ 1%
$ 74.91 Homeowners Insurance @ 0.25%
$ 74.91 Special Taxes and Levies @ 0.25%
$ 176.00 Homeowners Associate Dues or Fees @ $176
$ 149.83 Maintenance and Replacement Reserves @0.5%
$2,593.60 Monthly Cash Cost
$1,558.22 Interest on First Payment
$ (408.28) Tax Savings @ 25% of mortgage interest and property taxes
$ (260.06) Equity hidden in payment
$ 224.74 Lost Downpayment Income @ 5% of Downpayment
$ 2,150 Total Cost of Ownership

As you can see from the calculation above, this property is only worth $359,590 to an owner-occupant to break even on the cost of ownership. I included for reference the cost of private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you put less than 20% down. Of course, this would reduce the breakeven price even further.

$ 325,440 Purchase Price
$ 9,763 Downpayment @3%
$ 315,677 Mortgage @ 97%
$1,995.30 Mortgage Payment @ 6.5%
$ 271.20 Property Taxes @ 1%
$ 67.80 Homeowners Insurance @ 0.25%
$ 67.80 Special Taxes and Levies @ 0.25%
$ 135.60 Private Mortgage Insurance @ 0.5%
$ 176.00 Homeowners Associate Dues or Fees @ $176
$ 135.60 Maintenance and Replacement Reserves @0.5%
$2,849.30 Monthly Cash Cost
$1,709.92 Interest on First Payment
$ (444.43) Tax Savings @ 25% of mortgage interest and property taxes
$ (285.38) Equity hidden in payment
$ 30.51 Lost Downpayment Income @ 5% of Downpayment
$ 2,150 Total Cost of Ownership

People using FHA financing to put only 3% down have a higher cost of capital, and they have to pay PMI, so their breakeven is lower than someone putting 20% down.

The above analysis is exactly what I will look at when I consider buying a home. As you can see, prices are still too high for me. This property has to fall 30% from its 2004 purchase price before I would show any interest in it at all (not that I want to live in today’s property.) This owner used 100% financing, so she has been running a negative cashflow on this property for 4 years now. I doubt she cares what it sells for because even at her fantasy asking price of $515,000, she will still not get enough out of the property to pay off the loans. Some knife catcher may pay between $450,000 and $475,000 today because they will not do the analysis above, or they will not do it properly. I am constantly amazed at the level of ignorance among buyers. In the past, you could buy at almost any price, and the market would always bail you out. Unfortunately, sometimes prices do not come back for a very long time. The Great Housing Bubble is one of those times.

.

I haven’t really ever found a place that I call home
I never stick around quite long enough to make it
I apologize that once again I’m not in love
But it’s not as if I mind
that your heart ain’t exactly breaking

It’s just a thought, only a thought

But if my life is for rent and I don’t lean to buy
Well I deserve nothing more than I get
Cos nothing I have is truly mine

I’ve always thought
that I would love to live by the sea
To travel the world alone
and live my life more simply
I have no idea what’s happened to that dream
Cos there’s really nothing left here to stop me

It’s just a thought, only a thought

But if my life is for rent and I don’t learn to buy
Well I deserve nothing more than I get
Cos nothing I have is truly mine

While my heart is a shield and I won’t let it down
While I am so afraid to fail so I won’t even try
Well how can I say I’m alive

If my life is for rent…

Life for Rent — Dido