Room to Negotiate

Distressed sellers have no room to negotiate on price, and often these transactions have to be cleared through other interested parties. Sellers with equity have no such limitations.

Our property today is owned by motivated sellers who are not distressed. They want to get out, but they do not have to.

14872 Yucca Ave neighborhood

Asking Price: $679,900

Address: 14872 Yucca Avenue, Irvine, CA 92606

{book4}

I Want Out — Helloween

Shut your mouth and take it home
cause I decide the way things gonna be

I want out… to live my life alone
I want out… leave me be
I want out… to do things on my own
I want out… to live my life and to be free

In a normal real estate market, buyers and sellers negotiate a sale
price and close their transaction. Sellers are supposed to have equity
in the property because they put 20% down, and the property has
appreciated since they bought it. When buyers and sellers come together
to negotiate a sale, they are negotiating the amount of cash equity the
seller will be taking with them when the closing is complete. At least
that is how it is supposed to work.

During the deflation of the housing bubble, few transactions are occurring
in the normal way. It is rare to find sellers in today’s market who put 20%
down or bought early enough to have significant equity. Most homeowners
who are still in a positive equity position either do not want to sell
or do not need to sell. They are not in the for-sale market. The
properties that are available are generally distressed, and they have
their own sales dynamics.

The inventory in Irvine has been building steadily since the beginning of the year. Several of the recent additions to the market have been sellers who have significant equity. These are the sellers who were notably absent from the market over the last year. With any group of homeowners, there are those who are cautious and see reality. These homeowners are going to sell if they can because they don’t want to lose any more equity, and they live with the reality that house prices are going to continue to fall.

Sellers with equity have room to negotiate. If they become motivated, they can lower their price to sell the property. If they have a significant equity position, they can lower the price substantially. They need nobody else to approve the sale. If they want out, they can get out.

Are the owners of today’s featured property motivated enough to lower their price to find the market? At a $268/SF asking price, it looks like they might be.

14872 Yucca Ave neighborhood

Asking Price: $679,900

Income Requirement: $169,975

Downpayment Needed: $135,980

Monthly Equity Burn: $5,665

Purchase Price: $163,900

Purchase Date: 2/25/1999

Address: 14872 Yucca Avenue, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,535
$/Sq. Ft.:	$268
Lot Size:	5,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Other
Year Built:	1972
Stories:	2
Area:	Walnut
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S566384
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	1 day

This is a regular sale, NOT a short sale or reo. Seller lives out of
state and wants this sold now. Largest model in College Park with 4
bedrooms, 2.5 baths and large bonus room. Nice inside location down the
street from the park area, association pool and California
Distinguished grade school. Spanish tile roof, covered patio with rear
yard fruit trees of avocado, orange and lemon. The home needs some
updating and is a diamond in the rough. Make us an offer.

This realtor is telling the truth, and he did a decent job of writing this description, although it is a rather short. I would like to know more about the property.

This property was purchased on 2/25/1999 for $163,900. The sellers’ mortgage data isn’t available, but we can surmise they used an 80% first mortgage. There is no other mortgage activity on this property. This couple did not spend their home.

If this property sells for its asking price, this couple stands to make $475,206 after a 6% commission. They will not make that much, but since they have the ability to drop the price half a million dollars and still come out ahead, they have plenty of room to negotiate.

{book5}

So they keep talking and they never stop
And at certains point you give it up
So the only thing thats left to think is this

I want out… to live my life alone
I want out… leave me be
I want out… to do things on my own
I want out… to live my life and to be free

People tell me a and b
They tell me how I have to see
Things that I have seen already clear
So they push me then from side to side
Theyre pushing me from black to white
Theyre pushingtil theres nothing more to hear

But dont push me to the maximum
Shut your mouth and take it home
cause I decide the way things gonna be

I Want Out — Helloween

The Market Bottom Is Not a Price Point

Tonight is the night. We are scheduled to have an IHB Block Party on Monday, March 9,
2009, at J.T. Schmids at the District.

This is a special invitation to lurkers. I always enjoy meeting the silent majority who read the site but otherwise stay in the shadows. Please come out tonight.

In California, we are concerned about picking the bottom because prices are so volatile. In normal real estate markets, the bottom is not a price point; it is a condition of price stability.

Formerly million-dollar properties offered at a 35% discount are pretty rare in Woodbury. It is a sign of things to come.

94 Rinaldi front 94 Rinaldi kitchen

Asking Price: $650,000

Address: 94 Rinaldi, Irvine, CA 92620

{book2}

Rock Bottom — Eminem

A-yo!
This song is dedicated to all the happy people
All the happy people who have real nice lives
And who have no idea whats it like to be broke as f@#$

I have written about the conditions and circumstances at the market bottom on other occasions including: The Market Bottom and Fundamentals at a Market Bottom. The obsession we have in California with picking market bottoms is an unusual but necessary function of the extreme volatility in our real estate market. Not long ago I wrote Timing Does Matter.
When prices are extremely volatile, as they are here in California,
proper timing of a real estate purchase is very important. However, if markets were to stabilize and remain stable, picking a bottom would be unimportant. Stable markets are always at the bottom.

A stable market, a market that is at the bottom, is a combination of psychological and technical factors. Psychologically, in a stable market, there is an absence of belief in appreciation. When people believe prices are going to rise significantly (faster than wages or other investments), markets become unstable because people buy to speculate on appreciation rather than to provide shelter for their families. This buying constitutes the self-fulfilling prophecy of irrational exuberance and kool aid intoxication. Technically, in a stable market, loan terms limit price increases to the level of wage growth. Affordability products destabilize markets by allowing prices to rise faster than wage growth.

Cause we see them dollar signs and let the cash blind us
Money will brainwash you and leave your ass mindless

Stable markets are always at the bottom. Nominal prices are going up, so it isn’t a bottom from a pure price-point perspective; however, real prices–prices adjusted for wage inflation–are not going up. When real prices do not go up, you are at the bottom, irrespective of the increase in nominal prices. In terms of the percentage of income people have to put toward housing to obtain the same quality of life, nothing changes.

For example, if you make $100,000 a year, with low interest rates and a sizable downpayment, you may be able to afford a $400,000 property (most stable markets actually trade at less than three-times income). Next year if you get a 3% cost-of-living adjustment raise, you would be making $103,000, and you would be able to afford a property that is 3% more expensive. You could finance a $412,000 property instead of a $400,000 one putting the same percentage of your income toward housing. This effect of increasing bids with increasing wages is why house prices rise with wage inflation in a stable bottoming market.

In California, our real estate markets are not stable. Prices often rise here in excess of wage inflation. This occurs because irrational exuberance takes over and people become convinced prices will rise forever. When this cultural pathology is enabled by lenders through affordability products, lowered lending standards, higher allowable DTIs, and other methods, our prices take flight.

As I mentioned in another post Affordability Mortgage Products Make Prices Unaffordable, Lenders enable people to bid up pricing. Increasing prices engage the cultural pathology of kool aid intoxication, and an unsustainable rally begins. Since affordability products result in high default rates and foreclosures, these products are withdrawn from the market, prices crash, and psychology turns bearish.

If we eliminate affordability products–something the financial markets are doing anyway–our real estate market will be stable. Of course, we still have to endure the price crash down to stable bottoming price levels; although, once we are there, if affordability products are not brought back again, houses will be affordable, and the market will always be at the bottom.

The real estate cycle is an interrelated series of changes in credit availability and market psychology. Affordability products are the root of the problem because they are inherently unstable. When financing is unstable, market pricing is unstable. Our recent experiment with affordability products was a failure. This isn’t our first attempt; we tried in the late 80s and, and we failed. I hope this most recent failure seals the fate of these loan programs. When you consider how painful the second strike against these products has been, if we take a third swing, there will be no joy in California–the mighty Homedebtor will strike out.

My life is full of empty promises
And broken dreams
I’m hoping things will look up
But there ain’t no job openings

Today’s featured property is a hugely discounted and relatively new home in Woodbury.

94 Rinaldi front 94 Rinaldi kitchen

Asking Price: $650,000

Income Requirement: $162,500

Downpayment Needed: $130,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $5,416

Purchase Price: $1,010,000

Purchase Date: 8/27/2006

Address: 94 Rinaldi, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds:	4
Baths:	3
Sq. Ft.:	2,104
$/Sq. Ft.:	$309
Lot Size:	3,000 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	French Country
Year Built:	2006
Stories:	2
View:	Hills, Mountain
Area:	Woodbury
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S565927
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	3 days

NEVER LIVED IN SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED MODEL HOME located directly
across from one of the beautiful parks in The Woodbury Commons. Not
only is the home loaded with builder upgrades it is also in one of the
best locations in Stone Tree Manor. This four-bedroom, three full bath
home has decorator hardwood floors throughout. The livingroom has a
great fireplace, large viewing windows and oversized french doors. The
designer kitchen has a wonderful office nich, breakfast bar,lots of
counter space and another two sets of french doors. There is a main
floor bedroom with custom built-ins and full bath. Upstairs there is a
nice sized laundry room, the spacious master bedroom has a private bath
and separate shower with a large walk-in closet complete with
organizers. Another full bath upstairs with two additional bedrooms,
one with a mountain view. This ‘never lived -in home’ is located in the
village of Woodbury, walking distance to schools,shopping and dining in
the Commons.

Never lived in? Unfortunately, I cannot locate the property records on this property. Is this the builder dumping it? It this a flipper bailing after two years of bleeding cash? I don’t know.

According to Redfin, the owner paid $1,010,000 on 8/27/2006–right at the peak. I do not know who owns it or what financing they have in place. Given the $360,000 discount of its purchase price, if there is financing, it is likely a short sale. If this sells for its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss will be $399,000; let’s call it $400,000. Ouch!

For as painful as this loss is going to be, the people who must really be freaking out are the comparable properties. If you look at the list at the bottom of the sales page on Redfin, you see all the similar properties in the neighborhood that are for sale. The asking prices range from $775,000 to $888,000 with an average cost per square foot of $396. Today’s featured property is undercutting them by over 15%, and the asking price is $309/SF. Those other sellers just witnessed their own doom. Any potential buyer is going to have great difficulty obtaining financing with this new low comparable in the area.

The crash of the high end is gaining momentum.

{book3}

A-yo!
This song is dedicated to all the happy people
All the happy people who have real nice lives
And who have no idea whats it like to be broke as f@#$

I feel like I’m walking a tight rope, without a circus net
I’m popping percocets, I’m a nervous wreck
I deserve respect; but I work a sweat for this worthless check
Bout to burst this tech, at somebody to reverse this debt
…
Cause we see them dollar signs and let the cash blind us
Money will brainwash you and leave your ass mindless
Snakes slither in the grass spineless

That’s Rock Bottom
When this life makes you mad enough to kill
That’s Rock Bottom
When you want something bad enough to steal
That’s Rock Bottom
When you feel you have had it up to here
Cause you mad enough to scream but you sad enough to tear

My life is full of empty promises
And broken dreams
I’m hoping things will look up
But there ain’t no job openings

Rock Bottom — Eminem

Open Thread 3-7-2009

Irvine Renter — Authors@Google

I go on for over an hour about The Great Housing Bubble. I hope I kept it interesting.

We are scheduled to have an IHB Block Party on Monday, March 9,
2009, at J.T. Schmids at the District. Come out and meet with everyone
from the IHB.

In this weekend’s open thread, I have a brief analysis how the government is selectively nationalizing certain companies to provide a means for pumping cash into the economy to make up for the losses caused by asset price deflation.

Also, I would like to share with you some interesting blog posts I read this week at The Housing Chronicles Blog, and at the site of local realtor, Shevy Akason, who has been profiling OC properties at or below rental parity.

Ring of Fire — Johnny Cash

I fell in to a burning ring of fire
I went down,down,down
and the flames went higher.
And it burns,burns,burns
the ring of fire
the ring of fire.

The Housing Chronicles Blog

How many people would actually walk away from mortgages?

12% of all mortgages and 48% of sub-prime mortgages in default

Inman News suggests 10 ways to reform buying/selling of real estate

Shevy Akason’s Site

Laguna Hills Investment Opportunity

Costa Mesa Condo

Costa Mesa 3/4 luxury home— Value buyer opportunity!

{book1}

Our economy is a mess. The Federal Government and the Federal Reserve have to find a way to put out a fire burning through $3,000,000,000,000 (that is three trillion dollars).

So how do they plan to do it? Their partial nationalization of several banks (including CITI), AIG and the GSEs provide them with 3 major conduits into the national economy. By pumping money directly into the banks through disguised purchases of common or preferred stock, they can shore up the balance sheets of these institutions and put them on a solid footing to lend once asset valuations have fallen to cashflow sustainable levels.

AIG is the ultimate backstop. Since AIG insured everyone’s bonds, it is the counterparty that is going to absorb the majority of the losses in our financial debacle. By taking over AIG, the government can cover these losses instead of spreading the pain to bondholders that include most banks. In the opinions of those in charge, the losses are too big to be passed on to the bondholders without causing a meltdown of several other large financial institutions.

It is easier to cover these losses through AIG than it is to engineer 20 more government bailouts. It is easier to endure the public outrage over huge losses at one firm than it is to endure moderate size losses at 20. Either way, the government is going to have to pick up the tab because the losses are simply too large. At least that is the thinking in Washington. The are probably right.

All of these losses were triggered by the housing market. Controlling mortgage interest rates and terms by taking over the GSEs is the only way to prevent a complete meltdown of the housing market (think 60% – 80% declines rather than the 40%-50% declines we will see). The recently engineered bailout of homeowners–which will not help Irvine–would not have been possible if the Federal Government did not own the GSEs.

Each of the institutions taken over by the government (CITI, AIG, GSEs) provide a conduit for the direct infusion of cash to make up for the losses in our economy. Without these cash infusions, things would likely get much worse. Many will disagree with this assessment, particularly those who believe in unfettered free markets; however, whether you agree or not, this is the unstated policy our officials are following. Let’s all hope it works.

{book2}

Love is a burning thing
and it makes a firery ring
bound by wild desire
I fell in to a ring of fire…

I fell in to a burning ring of fire
I went down,down,down
and the flames went higher.
And it burns,burns,burns
the ring of fire
the ring of fire.

The taste of love is sweet
when hearts like our’s meet
I fell for you like a child
oh, but the fire went wild..

I fell in to a burning ring of fire

Ring of Fire — Johnny Cash

Two Years and 20% Later

Market chasers are at odds with their own emotions. Do they want to sell? Or do they want to get rich? It is quite a quandary.

Our featured property was first for sale 2 years ago at a price 20% higher.

1 Fern Cyn inside

Asking Price: $564,800

Address: 1 Fern Canyon, Irvine, CA 92604

{book5}

Chasing Pavements — Adele

Should I give up,
Or should I just keep chasing pavements?
Even if it leads nowhere,
Or would it be a waste?

Chasing the market is an interesting psychological phenomenon. It is the battle between wanting to sell and wanting to get more money. These desires are at odds with one another. In order to sell, the asking price must be lowered until it reaches market bids. In order to get more money, asking prices must be raised. What to do?

In a rising market, these problems resulting from these conflicts are minimal. In time, rising prices will reach almost any asking price, so if a seller is particularly greedy, it just means they have to wait longer to sell. However, in a declining market, the conflict between these two desires becomes a real problem.

Greed compels sellers to ask too much. Since the market is moving away from their asking price rather than toward it, they do not sell the property. After a while, the desire (or need) to sell becomes more urgent, and they overcome their greed (temporarily) and lower the price. If they are still too greedy, they will set another price above the market, and they will continue to chase it down.

This seesaw between wanting to sell and wanting to profit can go on indefinitely. Today’s featured property was originally for sale in March of 2007 for $711,800. It was also for rent for $2,550. I know because I went and toured this house in early 2007. The owner was a floplord who tried to stop the cash bleeding. Unfortunately, this property is only worth about $400,000 ($2,500 * 160), instead of the $640,000 the owner paid or the more ridiculous $711,800 she was asking.

Here we are two years later, and the seller has relisted the property with a 20% discount from her original asking price. IMO, it is still overpriced for today’s market, and it is 30% over its bottoming price. For her sake, I hope she finds a knife catcher before it drops all the way back to $400,000.

1 Fern Cyn inside

Asking Price: $564,800

Income Requirement: $141,200

Downpayment Needed: $112,960

Monthly Equity Burn: $4,706

Purchase Price: $640,000

Purchase Date: 6/9/2004

Address: 1 Fern Canyon, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds:	3
Baths:	2
Sq. Ft.:	1,689
$/Sq. Ft.:	$334
Lot Size:	4,800 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Garden Home
Year Built:	1974
Stories:	1
View:	Trees/Woods
Area:	El Camino Real
County:	Orange
MLS#:	S565843
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	1 day
New Listing (24 hours)

Rare to see on the market, and in an excellent cul-de-sac location,
this is a great opportunity to own a single-level detached home in
Irvine. On a good-sized level prime corner lot, and a short walk to
elementary school, association pool, spa, playground and large
greenbelt. Sparkling white kitchen, private patio just off the living
room and master bedroom. Large master with walk-in closet and skylight
in master bath. The private backyard features a newer patio that is
perfect for enjoying the great Southern California weather. The home
also offers newer AC and furnace, cathedral ceilings, wood flooring,
and a fireplace in the spacious living room.

This is not a bad description.

This owner paid $640,000 for this property on 6/9/2004. She used a $510,000 first mortgage and a $130,000 downpayment. On 9/22/2005 she refinanced with a $521,000 first mortgage. She still has $119,000 in the property.

If this property sells for its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss on the property will be $109,088. After she pays off the loan, she will be left with $10,000 of her $130,000 investment. That is not a particularly good return on investment.

I sometimes feel sad for owners like this one because she is losing so much of her own money. I only feel sad to a point because someone who was investing that much money should have had a better grasp of the fundamental valuations of the asset they were trading. It is hard to feel a great deal of compassion for speculators that lose money. There is always risk in speculation, and speculators knowingly assume that risk for the potential rewards. Unfortunately, with the free-flowing kool aid, many had no concept of the risks they were taking on; however, does that mean we should feel compassion for their ignorance? I don’t have those answers. You tell me.

I hope you have enjoyed this week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come back next week as we
continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

🙂

{book6}

Should I give up,
Or should I just keep chasing pavements?
Even if it leads nowhere,
Or would it be a waste?
Even If I knew my place should I leave it there?
Should I give up,
Or should I just keep chasing pavements?
Even if it leads nowhere

I’d build myself up,
And fly around in circles,
Waiting as my heart drops,
And my back begins to tingle
Finally could this be it

Chasing Pavements — Adele

Aren't You Ashamed?

How do owners react when REOs devastate the comps? How about listing their houses at WTF asking prices and hoping for the best. They really should be ashamed of themselves.

Today’s property is one of two recent listings on the same street as last week’s distressed property. The only difference is a doubling of the asking price. WTF?

35 Crimson Rose inside

Asking Price: $2,195,000

Address: 35 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603

We are scheduled to have an IHB Block Party on Monday, March 9, 2009, at J.T. Schmids at the District. Come out and meet with everyone from the IHB.

Shame — Evelyn King

It’s a shame
Ooh, I wouldn’t want to live with the pain
Gonna stay forever
Oh, it’s a shame
Shame

Sellers in Turtle Ridge obviously have no shame. They should. Some of their asking prices are embarrasing. We are in the depths of a global economic recession rivaling the Great Depression, asset prices of all kind are dropping, the stock market is trading at 1996 levels, unemployment is rising, and yet, despite all these problems, houses in Turtle Ridge have continued to appreciate.

WTF?

Last week I profiled 46 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603 asking $1,215,000. This is a house on the same street as the two we have today. The house at 46 Crimson Rose can’t sell at $1.2 million, so surely asking over $2,000,000 isn’t going to work. Well, the neighbors think asking $2M+ will work just fine. The vacant property at 48 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603 is asking $2,295,000. Are you kidding?

Perhaps these listings were on the market for a while and the distressed listing just came on the market and is making them look bad. Nope. The distressed property has been on the market over 60 days, and these two new listings just came on the market this week. Both of these homeowners, both of whom are supporting empty houses, just listed these properties for a million dollars more than their neighbor.

WTF?

I cannot even imagine the thought process these people must have gone through. The both must know their neighbor has been for sale for over 60 days at $1.2 million. Perhaps they just pretend the short sale isn’t there. They must reason it isn’t part of the “real” market. And surely their houses are much superior to that other one. I can’t get my mind around it. For that reason, it is a WTF award winner.

35 Crimson Rose inside

Asking Price: $2,195,000

Income Requirement: $548,750

Downpayment Needed: $439,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $18,291

Purchase Price: unknown, approximately $1,950,000

Purchase Date: 3/17/2006

Address: 35 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds:	5
Baths:	6
Sq. Ft.:	3,100
$/Sq. Ft.:	$708
Lot Size:	5,891 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:	Single Family Residence
Style:	Tuscan
Year Built:	2005
Stories:	2
View:	Catalina Island, City Lights, City, Coastline, Harbor, Mountain, Ocean, Panoramic, Has View
Area:	Turtle Ridge
County:	Orange
MLS#:	U9001013
Source:	SoCalMLS
Status:	Active
On Redfin:	2 days

1 OF A KIND! Former Model w/approx $500K in ‘Top of the Line’ designer
& builder upgrades. Located in prestigious Summit @ Turtle Ridge,
this property boasts phenomenal panoramic views from ocean, coastline
& city lights to mountains. Abundance of decorator features
including wood, travertine & stone floors throughout, beamed
ceilings,wrought iron accented front entry doors, gates & stair
rail, decorative chandeliers, casita with full size wine refrigerator
& storage area, closet organizers + lots of built-ins &
bathroom upgrades. Flexible floorplan has 3 bedrooms on main
level,(including casita) each with own bath,designer gourmet kitchen
with 2nd laundry area. Upstairs includes Master Suite with picturesque
views from bedroom & bath area, 5th Bedroom with own bath,+
convenient spacious laundry room. Summit @ Turtle Ridge is a
guard-gated community with world class amenities including community
parks, playgrounds, resort-like pools, fitness center and walking
trails.

Oh, the upgrades must make it worth so much. I get it now… not.

Located in prestigious Summit @ Turtle Ridge. I think he means the pretentious Summit at Turtle Ridge.

This property has all the signs of a pure speculative flip. The owner set up a corporation to buy the property. There is a $1,575,000 first mortgage, and the rest was a downpayment. The corporation would get to write off the interest over $1,000,000 whereas an individual cannot. Plus, there may be some additional liability and credit protections if the owner did not have to personally guarantee the loan. In any case, the property does not appear to be lived in, so this flipper has been bleeding cash since he bought it in early 2006. Perhaps he lived in it for a while and has since moved. I don’t know.

If this property sells for its asking price, the owner will make money on his flip. Of course, for that to happen, someone with more money than brains is going to have to put down a lot of cash to buy this place, and this property will have to have appreciated in value while every other property in the United States has not.

This seller isn’t the really greedy one. The owner of 48 Crimson Rose, Irvine, CA 92603 is asking $2,295,000. He thinks he is going to make $500,000.

WTF are these people thinking?

{book7}

Shame
Burning, you keep my whole body yearning
You got me so confused
It’s a shame
Sometimes I think I’m going insane
But still I want to stay

Wrapped in your arms
Is where I want to be
I want to be, want to be
Wrapped in your arms
That’s my high, my high
Only love can be to blame
If we lose our love
It’s a shame
Ooh, I wouldn’t want to live with the pain
Gonna stay forever
Oh, it’s a shame
Shame

Shame — Evelyn King