Prices rose in March in Orange County for the first time in nearly two years. Don’t worry, it won’t last. This is not the bottom, although several of our prominent local bottom-callers may come out and say so.

Asking Price: $1,279,900

Address: 57 Eaglecreek, Irvine, CA 92618

{book2}

The Song Remains The Same — Led Zeppelin

California sunlight, sweet calcutta rain
Honolulu starbright–the song remains the same.
Here we go!

In most price declines there are false rallies. Prices become oversold and look inexpensive relative to previous pricing. These bear rallies often bring new money into the market as buyers do not want to miss the bottom, so they buy and drive prices higher. This can go on for a while, but eventually bear rallies fizzle out because prices are inflated and not supported by fundamentals, so prices fall back to where they started from.

I originally added the annotations to the chart below in early 2007 for the post, What is Past Is Prologue. We did have a spring rally in 2007, but we skipped the second year rally entirely in 2008.

The price rally, if you want to call it that, is a mere uptick in the Orange County median from $375,00 to $380,000 from January to February. With all the artificial props to the housing market being engineered in Washington, it would not surprise me to see a spring rally, but given the state of our economy, it seems more likely that prices will continue to plummet.

What makes a price rally in these circumstances so seductive is the residual kool aid intoxication among market participants. How much of a rally would it take before people start to worry about being priced out forever? How much do prices need to go up before greed starts buying to capture appreciation? Of course, without loose-money financing to propel prices higher, the rally will go nowhere, but not before it sucks in a new round of knife catchers.

Bear rallies bring out another phenomenon: overhead supply. When prices drop, people who may want to sell do not because they cannot get the price they want. This pool of would-be sellers do not appear in the inventory statistics, but they are out there. Once prices start to rise, these sellers come out of hiding and list their properties for sale. Most will list their properties at a breakeven price hoping to get out without a loss. Of course, the cummulative impact of all these new sellers in the market is the death of the rally.

Today’s featured property is a WTF listing in Oak Creek. Apparently it has gone up in value since late 2005. It is listed at a price that provides a little negotiating room to get out at breakeven. It might not be a bad strategy if it were not about $350,000 overpriced in today’s market.

Asking Price: $1,279,900

Income Requirement: $319,975

Downpayment Needed: $255,980

Monthly Equity Burn: $10,665

Purchase Price: $1,160,000

Purchase Date: 10/28/2005

Address: 57 Eaglecreek, Irvine, CA 92618

PRESITGIOUS?

ALL CAPS.

This property was purchased on 10/28/2005 for $1,160,000. The owner used a $870,000 first mortgage and a $290,000 downpayment. If this property sells for its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the owner stands to make $43,106. Perhaps he left himself some negotiating room to get out at break even.

I get a kick out of the Cyberhomes estimate of $612,702. Perhaps Cyberhomes does not appreciate the special qualities of this property.

{book3}

I had a dream
Oh, yeah
Crazy dream, uh-huh.
Anything I wanted to know
Any place I needed to go

Oh!

The Song Remains The Same — Led Zeppelin

The weekend post generated many comments and plenty of controversy. If you have an opinion on the subject go to that thread to express it. Do not pollute this thread with those comments as I will delete them.

I can understand people’s concerns, and I can take negative comments, but there is a limit to what I will put up with.

The comments were an interesting study in mob mentality (I deleted many of the worst of them). It is amazing the things people will say anonymously if they feel the collective approval of the mob. In all the posts we have done on properties, we have never used names or made it personal. Many people on that thread did make it personal. Their conduct was shameful. Many said they would never come back. I hope they keep to their word.

This experience has been a cause of reflection for me. In life you tend to attract people to you that think and behave the way you do. I would like to think the comments were provided by good people who succumbed to the lynch mob; however, if these comments are a reflection of who these people really are, and if that is a reflection of who I am, then I perhaps the IHB really does need to change. As Shakespeare said, “The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in our stars, but in ourselves…”

I want to thank all of those who left positive comments and offered their support. It is for you that I keep writing. BTW, some people do support our efforts.

There will be no open thread this weekend. Instead, I want to announce the establishment of Irvine Housing Brokers.

Irvine Housing Brokers

What? Have we lost our minds? What makes us think we could sell real estate?

People are buying right now, and many of them are doing so despite being told that prices will drop further. Jim Klinge runs the blog bubbleinfo.com, and he is the realtor behind North San Diego County Real Estate. He was recently featured in the LA Times article “The Hunter S. Thompson of real estate”. Mr. Klinge has operated much like the IHB. The LA Times noted “Klinge has skewered brokers on the blog, calling them names like
“clown” and “cherry-picking cheerleader” for not admitting that the
housing market had tumbled.” He has done this while maintaining a successful real estate practice.

Jim Klinge’s motto is “You Can Handle The Truth.” I think he is right.

Why has the IHB been successful?

There are many reasons the IHB has drawn so many regular readers, but telling the truth is the most important of them. The entire Realtor community is united in serving bullshit to buyers. Much of what realtors say to buyers during the sales process is not true, particularly with regards to current and future real estate values; some of the duplicity is intentional, and some of the deceit is offered in ignorance. Whatever the cause, realtors lie to buyers, and buyers know it.

Instructing
Home
Buyers

One of the primary focuses of the IHB has been to educate buyers. If you go to a typical realtor site, they pretend to educate buyers, but what they are really doing is attempting to indoctrinate them. At the IHB, we tell the truth, and we tell a Truth nobody else is willing to reveal. We explain to people how to correctly value houses, and we provide an impartial analysis of where market prices are heading. Right now, houses are overvalued, prices are going down, and prices will continue to drop for quite some time.

Why should buyers come to us?

We have been writing about the housing market at the IHB since September of 2006. We accurately predicted the deflation of the housing bubble. By being accurate and truthful about the direction of housing bubble, we have established credibility and trust. Many of you have been reading this blog for over 2 years; you know us. What do you make of our character?

We also add value to the buying experience. Based on the work developed for the IHB, we provide buyers profiles of the properties they want to bid on. We provide a report showing (1) recent sales comps, (2) maximum cashflow value, (3) rental parity value (with rental comps) (4) cashflow investor value, and (5) the complete cost of ownership. To our knowledge nobody else is doing this. As a buyer, wouldn’t you like to have an objective and accurate report on what the property is worth and what it will cost you to own it? I would.

I
Help
Buyers

Many people have thanked me personally for my writing at the IHB. Many more have told me that they will buy when I do. I am not ready to buy yet, and if you have patience to wait for better pricing, you shouldn’t either; however, when you are ready to buy, if you really want to thank me, come to the IHB and let us be your buyer’s broker. Someone is going to make a buy-side commission on the transaction. I would like it to be me.

🙂

Why should sellers list with us?

We must be joking, right? With as many sellers and realtors as we have lampooned, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone would list with us, does it? Well, consider this analogy:

Why do night clubs run a happy hour and serve women free drinks? It isn’t because they are generous. If a night club can fill the bar with women, men will show up. The readers of the IHB are overwhelmingly potential buyers, and if there are lots of potential buyers around, sellers will want to show up.

Not all of the women who show up to a night club for happy hour are available, and many want to be left alone, but there are enough available women in the crowd for men to be interested. It is better for men to go where women are if they want a chance to meet one. Similarly, not all of the readers of the IHB are currently in the market to buy (at least the ones who have been paying attention to what we are writing), but there are enough buyers in the crowd for sellers to be interested. It is better for sellers to go where the buyers are if they want a chance to sell their house.

So how many potential buyers are we talking about?

Most of the readers of the IHB are from Irvine or the surrounding areas (although I did get an email from a reader in the Czech Republic this week). Most readers are interested in Irvine real estate, or they would not be at the Irvine Housing Blog. Here are some interesting statistics for you:

• 4,500 average daily visitors
• 3,300 unique IP addresses (these are often shared)
• 2,300 bookmarked visitors (daily readers)
• 1,800 readers via daily email

What other medium has the promise to deliver your listing to more potential buyers than the IHB?

Do a Google search for Irvine Real Estate; that is what your buyers would be looking for. You will find the IHB (and the article on me in the OC Register) near the top of the list. Do any Google search you can think of concerning Irvine housing, and we will be on the first page.

Other reasons to list with the IHB

We reach more buyers than anyone else. That is reason enough to list with us, but there are other factors to consider as well.

When you read these property descriptions each day here at the IHB, doesn’t it make you cringe? Do you want your property represented like that? By now, we have probably embarrassed most of the realtors in town. You would think that after a while, the writing would improve. Wouldn’t you be ashamed if your property were presented this poorly? At a recent IHB gathering, a former homeowner told us the realtor he was using wouldn’t change his ALL CAPS description despite being asked to. He had written descriptions that way for 20 years, so he thought it was the proper way to do it. Yikes!

Let us present your property in the best possible way. Every property has positives.

We will also show you what your property is worth based on current comps to help you price it to sell. If you do not agree, or if you want to list at a fantasy price, there are plenty of realtors in town who will take your listing; however, if you really want to sell your home, and if you are willing to price it accordingly, we want to help you.

Who is the IHB?

Lawrence Roberts

Most of you already know who I am; my name is Lawrence Roberts. I made the OC Register last November in case you missed it. I am the Director of Planning for a local engineering firm, Mayers and Associates. That is what I still do.

I have a Masters degree in Land Development from Texas A&M University, and I have been working in the real estate field for over 15 years. For a complete bio, check out The Great Housing Bubble. Suffice it to say, I have an understanding of real estate.

My function in this venture is to keep writing for the IHB and keep our traffic counts high. I am also responsible for all other marketing efforts like setting up a newsletter and email program similar to the one I created for the book.

The Irvine Housing Blog is my hobby, and it will continue to be just a hobby. I did not realize the marketing potential of this hobby until I met the young man who is taking on the responsibility of making sales happen, Shevy Akason.

Shevy Akason

I first met Shevy several months ago. I was immediately impressed with his understanding of real estate, and his complete lack of kool aid intoxication. He understood exactly what was going on in the market and why it was all happening. He shared with me an email exchange he had with representatives of the National Association of Realtors. He is not impressed with the conduct of his industry, and he is idealistic enough to think he might be able to change things. I hope he is right.

Part of what got me interested in starting this venture now is the properties Shevy has been showing me in other areas around Southern California. The price crash hasn’t made the valuations attractive for Irvine real estate, but it certainly has made for good deals in other areas. When Shevy and I talk about good deals, we are talking about good cashflow deals. We will not sell fantasies of endless appreciation.

Seeing good deals in the rental cashflow investment market, I knew that I could honestly endorse a deal in today’s market. This is the first time in seven or eight years I have seen prices on property in California that have true investment value. Once prices drop to price levels where ownership makes sense, I turn bullish. I am still bearish on most Irvine real estate, but I am bullish on select properties in other markets. As the price crash grinds on, I will become even more bullish, and so will Shevy.

Shevy owns rental properties himself. He purchased several positively-cashflowing properties out-of-state before the bubble began to inflate. He understands cashflow investment, and he puts his money where his mouth is.

Shevy is the new public face of the Irvine Housing Brokers. When you want to buy or list a home with us, Shevy will be the man who takes care of you–unless you overwhelm him with work (please do) and he needs to get other agents. For now, you can reach him at:

shevy@findmylandmark.com

949.769.1599

Contact him to discuss how the IHB can serve your real estate needs.

Zovall

Zovall, or Zack Ovall as he is sometimes known, is the glue that holds the IHB together. Our mystery man is choosing to remain hidden in the shadows. If you want to meet Zovall, you will have to come to an IHB gathering.

What’s next?

Most people will not notice anything has changed. I will continue to write daily posts with market analysis and property profiles. Occasionally, you will see our listings mixed in the property profiles (You should be able to distinguish them by the higher quality pictures and written descriptions), but the blog will go on as before. We are not about to change the very thing that has made us successful.

Over the next few weeks, we will introduce enhancements to the website to integrate it with the brokerage:

• We will be updating our logo, and we may do some other visual enhancements. We all like the simple look of the IHB, so we will not turn it in to a cheesy realtor website.
• The “analysis” section will be replaced with a “learning” section, and I will update some of my writings on real estate valuation, and we will add more content about the buying and selling process.
• We are going to add a second calculator that calculates the proper value for a property as a cashflow investment.
• We will add a few new pages for buyers and sellers with much of the information contained in this post.
• We will add a more detailed “about us” section.

Conclusion

We are excited about this new venture. It will be interesting to read the comments over the weekend and gauge the reaction of the IHB community. We are particularly interested in hearing from any potential buyers or sellers.

Would you use the IHB for you next real estate transaction? Why or why not?