IHB News 11-28-2009

I hope you are enjoying your weekend. If you want to catch up on the week’s housing market developments, you can find it here.

103 VERMILLION Irvine, CA 92603 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 103 VERMILLION Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $729,900

{book1}

End of passion play, crumbling away
I’m your source of self-destruction
Veins that pump with fear,
Sucking darkest clear
Feeding on your deaths’ construction

Taste me and you will see
More is all you need
You’re dedicated to
How I’m killing you

Master of Puppets — Metallica

Housing Bubble News

Today’s Housing Bubble Post – It Ain’t Over

Seeing the Forest (blog)Dave Johnson‎Nov 24, 2009‎

Have you noticed signs of “bubble mentality” in the housing market in your area? In my area the bubble is reignited by cheap credit and government subsidies

Bubble talk HoweStreet.com

The Housing Bubble Collapse And Homeowner Tax Incentives

Gov Monitor‎Nov 22, 2009‎

This surplus was created by a surge in construction during the housing bubble, combined with a drop in household formation during the recession.

Oct. existing home sales jump record 10.1 percent

Washington PostFrank Ahrens‎Nov 23, 2009‎

Remember, the biggest foreclosure home states — that is to say, the ones that were overbuilt the most during the housing bubble — were California,

Housing: Yes, That Was (And Is) A Train Wreck

istockAnalyst.com (press release)Karl Denninger‎Nov 24, 2009‎

It is the root cause of the credit bubble. It is the root cause of the housing bubble and the ridiculously-pumped pulled-forward demand curve that is now

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

Nearly 1 in 4 Borrowers Is Underwater (Mish)
Housing threat looms in South Orange County (mortgage.freedomblogging.com)
House Sales Poised to Dip After Tax-Credit Rush (news.yahoo.com)
It’s beginning to look a lot like a ‘W’ (marketwatch.com)
Realtors dead last on list of occupation by prestige (harrisinteractive.com)
Blame the Federal Reserve (youtube.com)

More foreclosures on the way for 2010 (boston.com)

More US house “owners” at risk of losing property they did not pay for anyway (guardian.co.uk)
U.S. Housing Recovery Delayed “to 2010” (as if!) (bloomberg.com)
U.S. Housing: More Houses in Delinquency than for Sale (seekingalpha.com)
Foreclosure, Delinquency Rate Soars (courant.com)
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High (nytimes.com)
Hope for Double Dip in Housing (online.wsj.com)
Pain increasing at the VERY high end (finance.yahoo.com)

Other News

The Talented Mr. Pang

Wall Street JournalMark Maremont‎Nov 21, 2009‎

In the years after his supposed graduation, Mr. Pang worked trying to bring deals to a small real-estate development firm in Santa Ana, Calif.

1-in-4 OC offices may be empty in 2010

OCRegisterJeff Collins‎Nov 21, 2009‎

Jeffrey Ingham, a Jones Lang LaSalle executive vice president in charge of the firm’s Orange County office in Irvine, says commercial real estate will

103 VERMILLION Irvine, CA 92603 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 103 VERMILLION Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $729,900

Income Requirement ……. $134,340
Downpayment Needed … $145,980

Home Purchase Price … $672,000
Home Purchase Date …. 5/14/2008

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $14,106
Percent Change ………. 8.6%
Annual Appreciation … 5.2%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $3,135
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $4,350
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $3,320

Property Details for 103 VERMILLION Irvine, CA 92603

Beds 3

lite-brite

Baths 2 full 1 part baths
Size 2,146 sq ft
($340 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 2003
Days on Market 1
Listing Updated 11/18/2009
MLS Number S596456
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Quail Hill
Tract Sand

Great location .. .. ..A nice and open floor plan.. .. .. Light and bright .. .. .. Ready to move in .. .. .. Arched Entry with a gated front Courtyard .. .. .. Third Bedroom is a Den/Office Downstairs, Living Room with Fireplace, Formal Dining Room, Spacious Kitchen with lots of cabinets .. .. .. Master Suite with room for Home Office and an additional Separate Spacious Retreat .. .. .. Inside Laundry Room .. .. .. Cozy backyard .. .. .. Enjoy Resort-like Amenities of Quail Hill including pools, BBQ areas, Sports Courts, GYM , trails and etc

I like using ellipses as they convey the idea that there is more to be said or though about the subject, but the reader must think if for themselves. When I see a grammatically incorrect attempt an ellipses like above, and it conveys that the author cannot sustain a coherent thought, and the reader is floating from one idea the next.. .. .. maybe I should try it.. .. .. maybe people like to think slowly.. .. ..

Black Friday

Is everyone out shopping today? Our retailers certainly hope so.

120 TALMADGE Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 120 TALMADGE Irvine, CA 92602
Resale Home Price …… $421,900

{book1}

When Black Friday comes
I’ll stand down by the door
And catch the grey men when they
Dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I’ll collect everything I’m owed
And before my friends find out
I’ll be on the road

Black Friday — Steely Dan

The news headlines with green shoots sprouting from Government bullshit indicates retailers are hoping this season will be better. Wishful thinking is not a great business plan, or so I have read.

Pinched us Retailers Started Their Black Friday on Thursday

Black Friday may top last year’s Washington Post

120 TALMADGE Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 120 TALMADGE Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price … $421,900

Income Requirement ……. $87,359
Downpayment Needed … $84,380
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $645,000
Home Purchase Date …. 9/22/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(248,414)
Percent Change ………. -34.6%
Annual Appreciation … -9.9%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $1,812
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,620
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $2,150

Property Details for 120 TALMADGE Irvine, CA 92602

Beds 2
Baths 2 baths
Size 1,479 sq ft
($285 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 2002
Days on Market 3
Listing Updated 11/17/2009
MLS Number S596312
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Northpark
Tract Aubr

According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.

BEAUTIFULLY UPGRADED HOME IN THE PRESTIGIOUS, GUARD-GATED COMMUNITY OF NORTHPARK! HIGH CEILINGS W/ LOTS OF WINDOWS. OPEN FLOOR PLAN W/ PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. DESIGNER PLUSH CARPET & CUSTOM PAINT THROUGHOUT. GOURMET KITCHEN FEATURES GRANITE TITLE COUNTERTOPS, BREAKFAST BAR, & LOTS OF CABINET SPACE. PRIVATE OVERSIZED MASTER BEDROOM OFFERS VERY GENEROUS CLOSET. LARGE SECOND BEDROOM W FULL-SIZE BATHROOM. OPEN LOFT CAN BE USED AS A LIBRARY OR OFFICE. BALCONY GREAT FOR ENTERTAINING. LAUNDRY ROOM ON MAIN FLOOR. PLENTY OF STORAGE SPACE IN 2 CAR TANDEM GARAGE. QUIET INTERIOR LOCATION, WALKING DISTANCE TO POOLS, SPAS, BBQS, CLUB HOUSE, SPORTS COURTS, TENNIS, TOT LOTS, WALKING TRAILS & MORE. EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING, DINING, ENTERTAINMENT & FREEWAYS. COME & MAKE THIS YOUR PERFECT HOME!

ALL CAP

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 09/01/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/10/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 03/17/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default

At least this one was processed quickly….

Irvine Housing Blog No Kool Aid

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing
the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since
September 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

🙂

Thankful for Irvine

Today, I am going to tell you a story that makes me thankful for Irvine and all it has to offer.

127 GREENMOOR 53 Irvine, CA 92614 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 127 GREENMOOR 53 Irvine, CA 92614
Resale Home Price …… $299,900

{book1}

I don’t want to rent a house from you
I don’t know how you can expect me to
I ain’t moving ’cause I know my rights
Too many homeless on the streets at night
You own a street and a block of flats
You earn your living like the other rats
You’ve no morality, what do you care
You deal in poverty, you buy despair
I ain’t moving ’till the baliff comes

Landlord — The Police

Back in 2004, I was working as a Senior Planner for Danielian Associates. We were working with URBI, a large Mexican homebuilding company, to plan about 40,000 acres of land they had purchased east of Tijuana. Part of the process was a site visit and tour of their other projects to fully understand the product that we were planning for. I was unprepared for what I saw that day.

To the good, my perception of the URBI organization is that they genuinely wanted to improve the quality of life for the average Mexican family. The houses they were building were entry level in the Tijuana market, so you can imagine the level of opulence. This new home represented a big move up for a typical family.

We started at one of their “cookie cutter” developments. Let’s just say they bring repetition of form to a new level in residential architecture. After seeing one of their neighborhoods, you never complain about Westpark again.

Do you think that grass was Photoshopped in? I can’t imagine it living long with your car parked there… there is no garage in these units.

We went to one of URBI’s subdivisions, and it was well kept and looked much nicer than the old run-down houses we passed driving there. In many ways it was like a drive through the old suburbs of Los Angeles, but one or two notches down.

We toured the model homes, and I was intrigued by a 288 SF detached home they were selling. Imagine a small garage 18′ by 16′. Inside that garage cut out a small bathroom, shower and closet. The smaller area left over is for a bed, and the larger space contains a kitchen wall and a small nook-like space that functioned as your living room, kitchen, dining room, basically every other function of the house occurs there. If you put a chair or a TV in this space, you are done; space filled.

The tiny house I just described… it sells for a premium! Remember, it is detached. Some of their attached product — the very bottom of the entry level — was very tiny and cramped. I remember feeling like a gerbil bedding in a shoebox.

It is easy to be elitist when living in Irvine, but this kind of housing represents a big step of the shanty where these people are moving in from. The pictures below are from Peru, but these shantytowns look like the ones in Tijuana.

I can remember vividly seeing the water trucks delivering fresh water to these stone huts. It was the only drinking or bathing water they were going to get, they had to pay for it in cash to get any, and they had to be there when the truck happened by. At the time, my son had just been in the hospital for dehydration with an illness. He would have died in the Tijuana slums. Realizing that, I became overwhelmed by the death and misery these people endure. I still tear up thinking about it.

I am thankful every day for my life in Irvine, and although I may slam today’s crappy condo like an elitist pig, I know somewhere there is a nice family for whom this property is “arriving” at some magical destination: Irvine.

127 GREENMOOR 53 Irvine, CA 92614 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 127 GREENMOOR 53 Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $299,900

Income Requirement ……. $55,198
Downpayment Needed … $10,497
3.5% Down FHA Financing

Home Purchase Price … $460,000
Home Purchase Date …. 5/12/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(178,094)
Percent Change ………. -34.8%
Annual Appreciation … -11.2%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $1,554
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,230
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $1,810

Property Details for 127 GREENMOOR 53 Irvine, CA 92614

Beds 2
Baths 2 baths
Size 1,056 sq ft
($284 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 1984
Days on Market 3
Listing Updated 11/16/2009
MLS Number L31423
Property Type Condominium, Townhouse, Residential
Community Woodbridge
Tract Lr
According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.
**BANK OWNED** Charming Cape Cod style townhome. Light, bright, and airy. Great open floorplan. Large brick patio in the front yard. Fireplace in the living room. Tile counters.

Look at the financing for this property; someone making $55,198 per year with a little over $10,000 saved up could afford to buy this property. That puts a market property at about 60% of median income in the area. That is good by historical standards. The bottom of the market will stabilize if interest rates stay this low.

Twiggy

Today we have a beautiful high-end home short selling for a significant loss.

35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $1,250,000

{book1}

You’ve been walking,
You’ve been hiding,
And you look half dead half the time.
Monitoring you, like machines do,
You’ve still got it I’m just keeping an eye.

Headlock — Imogen Heap

This beautiful home sits empty (like the heads of many supermodels or any of the Real Housewives). There are no occupants, nobody paying on the note, and no particular urgency on the part of lenders to change the status quo. The resources poured into this structure are sitting idle. It is a complete waste to society, yet here it is along with hundreds of thousands of properties nationwide.

I recently attended the Building Industry Show. Several of the seminars were very bearish, and there was much discussion about what the banks are going to do with all the defaults. The discussion was interesting because it wasn’t focused on whether or not there is a massive inventory problem coming — everyone accepted that — the discussion focused on what the lenders were going to do about it.

There was much frustration in the room because most industry watchers believe the banks are managing their foreclosure inventory by failing to initiate foreclosure proceedings; in other words, lenders are managing the problem by creating shadow inventory. Whenever there is a problem with a loan: defer. Their entire strategy is to delay dealing with the problem until appreciation bails them out.

There is a big problem with the solution of waiting for appreciation; since the shadow inventory is very large, and the holders of it are competitors in a cartel, there will be a huge incentive for the healthiest banks with the least amount of toxic mortgages to foreclose and take their losses while prices are still inflated. Those sellers that wait for higher prices will find lower prices instead. This will go on until the inventory of toxic mortgages is purged from the system.

Can lenders hold up prices by withholding inventory? Or will the instability of the cartel arrangement break down our current support?

35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $1,250,000

Income Requirement ……. $258,825
Downpayment Needed … $250,000
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $1,441,000
Home Purchase Date …. 11/8/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(266,000)
Percent Change ………. -13.3%
Annual Appreciation … -3.3%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $5,368
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $7,190
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $5,270

Property Details for 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620

Beds 4
Baths 4 full 1 part baths
Size 3,833 sq ft
($326 / sq ft)
Lot Size 7,166 sq ft
Year Built 2005
Days on Market 8
Listing Updated 11/11/2009
MLS Number S595753
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Woodbury
Tract Wdjb

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

This Beautiful Juliet’s Balcony Home will Capture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them. The Entry Features a Custom Made, Cast Iron Gate leading to an Open Courtyard. Entry Foyer leads to Formal Dining Room and Living Room. Living Room French Doors, opens onto a Peaceful Loggia. Gourmet Kitchen with Too Many Upgrades, include Viking Professional Series Stainless Steel Appliances, Dual Ovens, Dishwasher, Center Island with Extra Sink, Euro Designer Cabinets and Granite Coutertops. Kitchen overlooks the Morning Room and Family Room. Tranquil Master Bedroom with Ceiling Fan, includes His and Hers Walk-in Closets. All Other Bedrooms, each have their own Bathrooms. Upgraded Flooring includes Travertine, Distressed Hardwood Floors and Berber Carpets. Details from Plantation Shutters, to the Crown Mouldings, are Spectacular. Professionally Landscaped with Built-in BBQ.

Gourmet Kitchen AwardCapture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them… Flowery flatulence.

Why Title Case?

This property was purchased on 11/8/2005 for $1,441,000. The owner used a $1,008,650 first mortgage, a $288,000 second mortgage and a $144,350 downpayment. The downpayment is gone, and the second is going to be shorted.

Happy Thanksgiving

Turkey

I want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving Holiday. The IHB will have posts as usual, so if you are looking for your real estate fix, you can find it here.

Enjoy your Holiday weekend.

$3,000,000 Irvine Tract Home?

Do tract homes in Irvine go for more than $3,000,000? Well, they used to…

16 PRAIRIE GRASS Irvine, CA 92603 back

Irvine Home Address … 16 PRAIRIE GRASS Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $2,975,000

{book1}

Soft spoken with a broken jaw
Step outside but not to brawl
Autumn’s sweet we call it fall
I’ll make it to the moon if I have to crawl and

(I’m) With the birds(sharing) I’ll share
(this lonely) This lonely view
(I’m) With the birds(sharing) I’ll share
(this lonely)This lonely view
(I’m) With the birds(sharing) I’ll share
(this lonely)This lonely view

Scar Tissue — Red Hot Chili Peppers

Should “Sycamore Plan Two” and $2,975,000 go together? Can tract homes today really be worth $3,000,000 in Irvine? Owners still think they are worth that much, so many of them are offered for sale; unfortunately, buyers do not agree. Much of our high-end inventory sits there in an overpriced fantasy world hoping for loose financing to save them. It isn’t going to happen.

Can you identify the lot with the most negatives in this picture?

I will give you a hint. It is the only lot that has no view, backs on to the side of a higher property, is not on a corner, and is not pie shaped to give any additional area.

If this home is a $3,000,000 tract home, then the inside must be finished with gold, or every home in this neighborhood is worth more than $3,000,000. Since neither seems likely, since recent comps on Vernal Springs went for $2,400,000, and since the high end is ridiculously inflated, I don’t think this house will sell for $3,000,000. If they lower it to $2,400,000 they might get out before prices go lower.

16 PRAIRIE GRASS Irvine, CA 92603 back

Irvine Home Address … 16 PRAIRIE GRASS Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $2,975,000 WTF

Income Requirement ……. $547,558
Downpayment Needed … $595,000
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $3,125,000
Home Purchase Date …. 3/13/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(328,500)
Percent Change ………. -4.8%
Annual Appreciation … -1.3%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $12,776
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $16,850
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $12,290

Property Details for 16 PRAIRIE GRASS Irvine, CA 92603

Beds 5
Baths 5 full 1 part baths
Size 4,820 sq ft
($617 / sq ft)
Lot Size 15,790 sq ft
Year Built 2004
Days on Market 3
Listing Updated 11/17/2009
MLS Number U9004951
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Turtle Rock
Tract Shsm

Exceptional Sycamore Plan Two with Main Floor Master Suite situated in the exclusive residential golf preserve of Shady Canyon. A very functional floor plan with 5 bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms, including detached guest casita. With Spanish Revival influences of the early 20’s and 30’s, this gracious home creates an authentic sense of a true California style. Amenities include an entry library, wine alcove, formal living room and dining room with cathedral two story ceilings, a chef’s kitchen that opens to the family room and breakfast nook. Nestled in the foothills, this private lot boasts numerous outdoor courtyards, a sparkling pool and spa, built-in-barbeque and inviting outdoor fireplace.

These owners have a $2,000,000 mortgage, but it isn’t likely this will be a short sale. Since there will be no loan modifications at that loan amount, the owners are on their own — which is probably why they are selling.

If you had $3,000,000 to spend on a house, would you spend $3,000,000 for a tract home in Shady Canyon?