IHB News 3-20-2010

Today's featured property is a Woodbridge dreamer hoping to cash out in our re-inflated housing bubble.

Irvine Home Address … 23 EMERALD Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $1,125,000

{book1}

I'll speak a little louder

I'll even shout

You know that I'm proud

And I can't get the words out

Oh I…

I want to be with you everywhere

Oh I…

I want to be with you everywhere

(Wanna be with you everywhere)

Fleetwood Mac — Everywhere

IHB News

The Irvine Housing Blog saw tremendous reader traffic this week. Four posts were picked up by Patrick.net:

Swiss Central Bank Openly Discourages Mortgage Lending (irvinehousingblog.com)

Why Do Struggling Houseowners Keep Paying Their Mortgages? (irvinehousingblog.com)

Responsible House Owners Are Hurt by Irresponsible Loan Owners (irvinehousingblog.com)

One Defaulting Owner's Free Ride: Three Years and Counting (irvinehousingblog.com)

Calculated Risk also made us a feature of the post: Squatter Stimulus: No Mortgage Payment for Three Years and Counting.

Where does IHBs traffic come from?

The numbers below are from IP addresses Clicky can identify their locations. The raw numbers do not mean much, but you get some idea of the geographic concentration of our readers.

Below is a graphic of the last 500 visitors taken on Friday evening.

Jack Otremba

When I lived in Florida, I became very close friends with Chris and Sharon Otremba. Two years ago, they nearly lost their first child as he was born prematurely at a birth weight of one pound one ounce. He was given a 10% chance of survival.

Over the last two years, I have been following this story closely. It is difficult to imagine what it is like to have your baby undergo multiple life-threatening surgeries and accept a difficult prognosis of future problems. This family knows love like few others.

Jack recently celebrated his second birthday, and he keeps defying the odds. As he continues to grow and develop, his prognosis continues to improve as well. He is poised to live a normal life but with a unique life story.

Link to Video on Jack Otremba.

Matthew John Gilmer

Since I brought up babies, I also want to congratulate my cousin Kathryn and her husband Steve who announced the delivery of their first child on March 16th. My Aunt Pat needs to master emailing photos….

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

US House Prices Decline 1.9% in January (calculatedriskblog.com)

6 SoCal Houses Showing the Continued California Housing Correction (doctorhousingbubble.com)

Florida foreclosures create logjam in courts (miamiherald.com)

Phoenix real estate agent pleads guilty in fraud scheme (abc15.com)

KB House ex-CEO tried to keep stock option scheme secret (latimes.com)

Lessons learned from 25 years of forecasting the US economy (emerginvest.com)

Greenspan On The Housing Bubble: Not My Fault (npr.org)

Former Soviet Union to blame for housing bubble: Greenspan (financialpost.com)

Federal Reserve Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely? (theeconomiccollapseblog.com)

Unusual Admission that National Debt Will Never Be Paid (thenation.com)

Land tax can reduce other taxes (kansascity.com)

Who is prospering from Prop 13? Commercial landlords. (almanacnews.com)

More houseowners are opting for 'strategic defaults' (latimes.com)

More owners opt to walk and leave mortgages behind (azcentral.com)

Free house for any deliquent CA mortgage owner (patrick.net)

Houseowner associations block guests (orlandosentinel.com)

Alameda land-use ruling could lower cost of a house in CA (sfgate.com)

How to lose $222 million in real estate (lansner.freedomblogging.com)

US mortgage demand tepid even as loan rates sink (reuters.com)

Artificially Low Interest Rates Pump Up Asset Prices (pbs.org)

Fed System Designed to Punish Savers and Encourage Debt (mybudget360.com)

The Fed To Stop Buying Mortgages? (curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com)

Housing Market Sure to Double-Dip (cnbc.com)

US Mortgage delinquencies at historic highs (moremoney.blogs.money.cnn.com)

Orange County Feb. bankruptcies highest for the decade (jan.freedomblogging.com)

Winners and losers if inflation skyrockets (finance.yahoo.com)

Misconceptions about Money and Velocity (Mish)

Foreclosure starts up nearly 20 percent in California (centralvalleybusinesstimes.com)

Central Valleys Stanislaus County tops for mortgage fraud (modbee.com)

Ex-NY bank president first accused of TARP fraud (reuters.com)

Is it time for Canadians to bottom fish for US real estate? (montrealgazette.com)

Avalanche of Maturing Junk Bonds Looms for Markets (nytimes.com)

Moodys Warns U.S. Debt Could Test Triple-A Rating (nytimes.com)

It's Official: The US Housing Downturn Has Resumed in Earnest (huffingtonpost.com)

New round of foreclosures threatens housing market (washingtonpost.com)

Houseowners take cash for keys to escape debt (msnbc.msn.com)

How Strategic Default Could Save Our Economy (blog.youwalkaway.com)

Something From Nothing (Mish)

Realtors lie about when to buy (mobile.nytimes.com)

The Foreclosure Shadow Market Grows (motherjones.com)

Kern County, CA Property Value Per Sqft Back to 2002 (kerndata.com)

Wall Street: Inside the Collapse (cbsnews.com)

Planet Money Tracks Its Very Own Toxic Asset (npr.org)

Rental investors braving a dismal apartment market (latimes.com)

The Going Gets Tougher For Borrowers (nytimes.com)

FHA challenged on projected risk to taxpayers (washingtonpost.com)

The higher the price range, the worse the market (ocregister.com)

$35 million house assessed at $3.2 million (lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com)

Nicolas Cage: One-Man Real Estate Bubble (nbcnewyork.com)

Irvine Home Address … 23 EMERALD Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $1,125,000

Home Purchase Price … $650,000

Home Purchase Date …. 8/13/1993

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $407,500

Percent Change ………. 73.1%

Annual Appreciation … 3.3%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$1,125,000 ………. Asking Price

$225,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.00% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$900,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$232,942 ………. Income Requirement

$4,831 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$975 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$94 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$80 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$5,980 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1323 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1081 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$438 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$141 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$4,154 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$11,250 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$11,250 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$9,000 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$225,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$256,500 ………. Total Cash Costs

$63,600 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$320,100 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 23 EMERALD Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

4 Beds

3 full 1 part baths Baths

3,070 sq ft Home size

($366 / sq ft)

5,000 sq ft Lot Size

Year Built 1984

5 Days on Market

MLS Number U10001082

Single Family, Residential Property Type

Woodbridge Community

Tract L2

——————————————————————————

Turn Key,Remodeled and Expanded with approx.3,070 sf In desirable Woodbridge, Landing II tract. Huge Great Room w/custom Granite Fireplace,New Built in Cabinets,65' Pioneer Elite TV,is open to Kitchen and Large Eating Area Combo,French Doors & Windows.Gourmet Kitchen with Granite Counters,Custom Cabinets,Stainless Oven & Microwave,Meile Dishwasher,Reverse Osmosis. Hardwood flors,Plantation Shutters.Vaulted ceilings in Sunken Living Room.Formal Dining Room.Custom Crown Moldings,Chair Rails & Paint.Lake view Master Suite,dual sided fireplace,2 walk in closets,built in bookshelves. Separate Laundry room,washer&dryer included.Dual AC's,wired for Security System,Tankless Hot water heater,built in garage cabinets.Beautifully hardscaped w/built in BBQ,Putting green in back yard (no house backing up to this).Low tax rate (1.03544%),No Mello Roos!Among Highest Rated Schools in CA.Assoc has 23 pools,2 tennis clubs,2 lakes,bike & walking trails,parks.

I think this is cool. Of course, I get weak around nice built-in bookshelves:

Guys, do you have this much stuff? Perhaps I am too Spartan.

realtors Slammed in New York Times

I last pounded realtors back in January in Urgency Versus Reality: realtors Win, Buyers Lose. It's a subject entertaining to revisit. Today, the New York Times takes a shot.

Warning! This post has a graphic with an objectionable four-letter word… and perhaps another seven-letter word….

Irvine Home Address … 35 MORNING Vw Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $1,275,000

{book1}

Oh I should have seen the signs

Now we're falling back in time

So far from where we started

So far from what we wanted

And I'm trying to right this wrong

So I need you to be strong

So far from where we started

So far from what we wanted

State of Shock — Money Honey

As the housing bubble deflates, I am struck by how far we are from where we started, and rather than try to regain our sanity, we blow air into the bubble, we foster moral hazard, and we embrace any get-rich-quick scheme available. There is no concern for the collective good any longer. Or are we only concerned with homeowners. If so, then everyone should own a home; thus it must be a great time to buy, right?

Great Time to Buy (Famous Last Words)

By DAMON DARLIN

Published: March 12, 2010

“IT’S a great time to buy a home.”

Real estate agents were saying that in 2001, as home prices were rising. They also said it when home prices peaked in 2005 — in fact, David Lereah, former chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, published a book that year titled “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?”

And many real estate agents said it was time to buy as prices began to drop — and continued to say it over the past several years as prices fell by an average of 33 percent in America’s 20 largest cities.

Mr. Lereah would acknowledge that he had gotten it wrong. But from the perspective of many real estate agents, it is always a good time to buy.

I suppose I should be content trashing David Lereah in the Wall Street Journal, but since his name popped up in this article, I couldn't resist.

“What they are really saying is that it is a good time to be involved in a transaction that generates a commission,” says Barry Ritholtz, C.E.O. and director of equity research at FusionIQ, a quantitative research firm. He’s also author of “The Big Picture,” an irreverent blog on markets.

Barry is the man! [pictured right]

Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, is not.

“I can’t prove to you that housing prices have definitely bottomed out,” Mr. Kelman says. “I can say with a fair degree of certainty that the cost of money will go higher.” [I agree]

OF course, if rates go up, home prices tend to dampen. Borrowing $300,000 at 5 percent costs you $1,610 a month. If rates rise to 6 percent, that’s $188 a month more, or $67,680 over 30 years. Would the price of a $375,000 house fall because of a half-point rate hike? Now you are back to guessing about home prices. Don’t go there. Maintain your focus.

WTF? Don't go there? Don't think about future house prices? I thought I was going to be able to praise Redfin's guy, but then he spouted nonsense like a realtor, so I will try not to focus on that.

“People are frequently buying for the wrong reasons,” says Frank LLosa, a real estate agent working in northern Virginia. In most cases, he says, they think that they are getting an income tax break or that their home is an investment.

He points out that a buyer of a $300,000 home would have to see the house appreciate $18,000 just to cover the commission and closing costs. Then figure in the predictable costs of maintenance, the opportunity costs of the mortgage down payment and the amount one could have saved by renting a similar place more cheaply.

Mr. LLosa thinks that many people — including him — would be better off renting. People ought to buy a house for what he calls “warm and fuzzy feelings,” but they shouldn’t try to predict home prices. Nor should real estate agents, who aren’t much wiser.

“I don’t think real estate professionals should be in the business of telling people when it is a great time to buy,” he said.

I like this guy. Might he be a Realtor with a capital R? "An alternative perspective on Real Estate… the truth." Wow! This is promising. Check out some of these posts: Go FSBO! Save $20,000! Agent Tells All!; Agent Rebates. Free Money or Expensive Savings?

A good time to buy?

Bulls celebrate massive government intervention as a good thing, as if we are rescued from a temporary downturn and prices are set to head to the moon. Personally, I think that is crazy, particularly locally and closer to the coast, but I am just an opinionated blogger.

What do you think? Do you believe this is a good time to buy?

Irvine Home Address … 35 MORNING Vw Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $1,275,000

Home Purchase Price … $695,000

Home Purchase Date …. 8/28/2001

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $503,500

Percent Change ………. 83.5%

Annual Appreciation … 7.0%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$1,275,000 ………. Asking Price

$255,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.00% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$1,020,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$264,001 ………. Income Requirement

$5,476 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$1105 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$106 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$376 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$7,063 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1476 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1226 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$496 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$159 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$5,016 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$12,750 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$12,750 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$10,200 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$255,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$290,700 ………. Total Cash Costs

$76,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$367,500 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 35 MORNING Vw Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

3 Beds

2 full 1 part baths Baths

2,415 sq ft Home size

($528 / sq ft)

5,000 sq ft Lot Size

Year Built 1979

3 Days on Market

MLS Number S608552

Single Family, Residential Property Type

Turtle Rock Community

Tract Rp

——————————————————————————

35 Morning View is the home that you have been waiting for.Sit and look out at spectacular views of Shady Canyon,Strawberry Farms Golf Club,the lake/reservoir, mountains and city lights.This secluded home is located at the end of a cul da sac with a large landscaped island. As you enter the courtyard,with bubbling fountain,through the Dutch Entry doors you are in the homes entry and formal dining room,with vaulted ceilings and wood floors. A few steps up and you are in the formal living room with it marble fireplace,handcrafted mantle and panoramic,sit down view.The master bedroom is on this level with a walk in closet,built-ins,French Doors to the deck and views,views, views.Downstairs is a family room with another fireplace,built-ins,a door to the large patio and more views. There are also two bedrooms and a full bath downstairs.The kitchen is on the main level and is light and bright with an oversized skylight,built in refrigerator and an eating area. Don't miss this fantastic home.

Did the agent forget to mention THIS IS A DUPLEX!!! $1,275,000 for a duplex that needs an updated kitchen. Hmmm… No bubble here.

Nice view…

I am not sure if these owners deserve a B for mortgage management. They refinanced their mortgage in 2003 with a lower balance and lower interest rate, so it appears they may have even accelerated their payoff which would earn an A, but there is no way to be certain. There are two HELOCs that appear later which would earn them a C, but there is no other evidence that they took out the money.

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

Why Do Struggling Homeowners Keep Paying Their Mortgages?

With the housing entitlement firmly in place, borrowers have little incentive to continue making mortgage payments, particularly if they have difficulty with the payment or if they are underwater. [image content warning]

Irvine Home Address … 1 West ALBA Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $675,000

{book1}

You can get just so much from a good thing

You can linger too long in your dreams

Say goodbye to the "Oldies But Goodies"

Cause the good ole days weren't always good

And tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems

Billy Joel — Keeping the Faith

Homedebtors are struggling borrowers who cannot afford their payments or are deeply underwater. They are keeping the faith in appreciation and dutifully making their payments — for now. Homedebtors are the lynchpin holding together the housing market; if they lose faith in appreciation, as they have in subprime markets, then they may strategically default in large numbers.

The banking cartel in cahoots with the US government created a huge problem for themselves. They provide borrowers an attractive alternative to paying their mortgage; borrowers who strategically default and properly game the system can take advantage of the loan owner housing entitlement and squat in the property indefinitely. Over the last few days, I profiled HELOC abusers in Irvine and Riverside County who are living in homes they don't own and are not paying for, squatting by virtue of signing loan documents — if only lease documents were so advantageous…

It really makes me pause and wonder why any struggling homeowners make their payments. They have much to gain and little to lose. If they stop paying, it frees up thousands of dollars of income each month. That is, after all, why people want to pay off their house, so they don't have a payment. If homeowners simply stop paying now, they will still have a house, and they will not have a payment. It is just as useful as having the house paid off, it is much easier to accomplish, and it requires no patience or discipline — we wouldn't want to burden mortgage holders with that.

Absent false hope and faith in the miraculous recovery, there isn't much reason to hold on. Many homedebtors simply can't afford the properties they have. If they stop paying, the lender will not boot them out; they can dance with lenders indefinitely, and when those ploys run out, they can game the system further. If enough people dance at the same time, lenders will fear stopping the music, and shadow inventory will cover the land.

Millions of defaulting borrowers are occupying homes without paying. Few are saving this money. Some don't save because they are unemployed and don't have it, and some don't save because it is a four-letter word. Much of the money that went into mortgages is being spent by squatters and propping up the economy. Here in California the economy is not showing many signs of life — improvement yes, but activity is not robust. Those that are unemployed are not contributing to the economy, and those that are over leveraged are not either because so little of their income is available to spend.

How Strategic Default Could Save Our Economy

… So what’s the answer? Less debt. Also known as de-leveraging. Not more stimulus and bailout paid for by taxpayers… which partly ends up in the bankers bonus check. The answer is also in getting back to freedom. Our country was founded on freedom and we have betrayed ourselves by thinking it’s ok to owe thousands of dollars to other people. This has robbed our freedom and caused us to be so dependent upon working long hours and doing everything to just “get by”. I am sick of just “Getting by”.

Since the government can theoretically spend only what it takes from the people (taxpayers), its increased spending will drive the people to poverty. We are allowing this to happen to our country.

After 2 and a half years of listening to YouWalkAway.com customers and seeing time after time that by defaulting, they feel freedom again, they can afford a normal life again, I am convinced that a strategic default could possibly save our economy…and much quicker than any other solution that I’ve seen thus far. Let’s look at a real life example.

In the WSJ, there is an article titled: American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent

“It’s just a better life. It really is,” says Ms. Richey. Before defaulting on her mortgage, she owed about $230,000 more than the home was worth. People’s increasing willingness to abandon their own piece of America illustrates a paradoxical change wrought by the housing bust: Even as it tarnishes the near-sacred image of home ownership, it might be clearing the way for an economic recovery.

In the WSJ, there is an article titled: Americans Pare Down Debt

“The speed of the adjustment is lightning fast because it’s happening through debt destruction,” said Joseph Carson, director of global economic research at AllianceBernstein in New York. “It puts us closer to the point where the consumer can start making a stronger contribution to recovery.”

I guess I’m not alone in my thinking. In essence, you are taking back the power from the bank by saying I don’t care about my credit score right now, I care about my economic future. You are creating your own stimulus package by following the law and staying in the home until the bank takes it back. There is a breakdown of how it works here.

“A rapid and cost-efficient mark to market”. consider: Snow Job: Strategic Defaults in an Era of Negative Equity

Strategic walkaways employ laws established to protect them from predatory or avaricious lending practices. They create an efficient, rapid, cost-efficient mark to market, stripping away inaccurate and illusory pricing practices that lenders cling to. Solving the mortgage crisis is going to take more than nibbling away at the edges of valuation, tweaking monthly loan payments through interest rate adjustments and loan extensions.

Being protected from crisis may simply be doing nothing more than preventing and delaying a true healthy economic recovery. Strategic defaults are paving the way for true home values, responsible lending practices and allowing for homeowners that once felt trapped…to be free again.

Jon Maddux, CEO

More homeowners are opting for 'strategic defaults'

Borrowers are certainly sending a message to lenders.

March 17, 2010

[Wynn Bloch bought her Palm Desert house for $385,000 in 2006. Now she says it will never be worth anywhere near the amount of her mortgage, so she stopped paying on her loan and moved out. (Bret Hartman / For The Times / March 4, 2010). Not pictured right?]

Wynn Bloch has always dutifully paid her bills and socked away money for retirement. But in December she defaulted on the mortgage on her Palm Desert home, even though she could afford the payments.

Bloch paid $385,000 for the two-bedroom in 2006, when prices were still surging. Comparable homes are now selling in the low-$200,000s. At 66, the retired psychologist doubted she'd see her investment rebound in her lifetime. Plus, she said she was duped into an expensive loan.

The way she sees it, big banks that helped fuel the mess all got bailouts while small fry like her are left holding the bag. No more.

"There was not a chance that house was ever going to be worth anywhere near what my mortgage was," said Bloch, who is now renting a few miles away after defaulting on the $310,000 loan. "I haven't cheated or stolen."

Ms. Bloch is right. Her and her lender entered into a contract; they loaned her money, and she agreed to to give up her house if she failed to pay the money back. She is exercising her contractual right. It just annoys me that the lender is passing the loss on to us.

Many homeowners are just coming to grips with the idea that prices will take years to reach the pre-crash peak: as long as 14 years in California, according to economist Chris Thornberg.

Stuck with properties whose negative equity won't recover for years, and feeling betrayed by financial institutions that bankrolled the frenzy, some homeowners are concluding it's smarter to walk away than to stick it out.

"There is a growing sense of anger, a growing recognition that there is a double standard if it's OK for financial institutions to look after themselves but not OK for homeowners," said Brent T. White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who wrote a paper on the subject.

People who conclude it is wiser to default are generally correct. Financially, it is not in their best interest to hang on.

To some homeowners those consequences are a small price to pay to gain a measure of revenge against the financial institutions whose loose money helped fuel the crisis.

Joseph Shull, a 68-year-old marketing professor, said he's planning to walk away from the town house he bought in Moorpark in June 2006.

"I'm angry, and there are a lot of people like me who are angry," he said.

He purchased the home for $410,000 and spent $30,000 renovating. Now the house is worth around $225,000.

Shull admits he overpaid for his property. But he said it fell in value in part because of "regulatory mismanagement."

"The bank stabbed me, but at least I got in a pinprick back," he said. "This is the new economy. The old rules don't apply any more."

As people realize they were screwed by lenders, they default and send their lenders a strong message.

Lenders brought this on themselves

It is difficult to make a case for continuing to pay on oversized mortgages. It is financially crippling to the borrower, and this limitation hurts the local economy because so much borrower money goes elsewhere. If continuing to pay too much is harmful to the borrower and harmful to the borrower's community, and if there are no repercussions for stopping payment with our new housing entitlement, why should borrowers continue to struggle with burdensome debt-service payments? Why should any borrower continue making payments? Why not rely on entitlement? Squat?

I hope you picked up on the subtle sarcasm throughout this post. But my tongue is only slightly in cheek because lenders, enabled by our government, created a situation loaded with moral hazard that encourages people to default in larger numbers. If the entire mortgage system falls apart, you and I as taxpayers will pay for it. Even now, we pick up the unpaid mortgage bills.

You are paying the bills of squatters everywhere.

Irvine Home Address … 1 West ALBA Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $675,000

Home Purchase Price … $674,000

Home Purchase Date …. 12/10/2009

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(39,500)

Percent Change ………. 0.1%

Annual Appreciation … 0.4%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$675,000 ………. Asking Price

$135,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.00% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$540,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$139,765 ………. Income Requirement

$2,899 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$585 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$56 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$79 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,619 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$709 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$649 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$263 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$84 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,608 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,750 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,750 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,400 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$135,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$153,900 ………. Total Cash Costs

$39,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$193,800 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 1 West ALBA Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

4 Beds

2 full 1 part baths Baths

2,266 sq ft Home size

($298 / sq ft)

4,320 sq ft Lot Size

Year Built 1980

58 Days on Market

MLS Number S602198

Single Family, Residential Property Type

Northwood Community

Tract Ps

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.

Private Location at the End of a Cul-De-Sac. Sides to Greenbelt, No Homes Behind. Expanded Master Bedroom with Fireplace, Dual Vanities, Walk-In Closet, Seperate Shower and Tub. Fireplace in Family Room. Attached 2 Car Garage with Direct Access. Private Spa in Back Yard. Side Yard on Both Sides of Home, Breakfast Nook, Formal Dining. It does need some minor repairs, but at this price it's worth it.

That description is a bit austere, but I appreciate the truthful observation in the final sentence.

Who lived here?

Gaming the System

How many loan modifications are we going to give this borrower?

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 11/12/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/07/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/30/2008

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/04/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/14/2008

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 06/11/2008

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/06/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 11/05/2007

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 07/02/2007

Document Type: Notice of Default

Who do you think is absorbing the last three years worth of missed payments?

Now we are paying the piano man.

Responsible Home Owners Are Hurt by Irresponsible Loan Owners

Responsible homeowners are not losing their homes, but they are forced to pay a price for the foolish irresponsibility displayed around them.

Irvine Home Address … 43 SANTA COMBA Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price …… $799,990

{book1}

Dance with me

I want to be your partner

Can't you see the music is just starting

Night is calling and i am falling

Dance with me

Fantasy could never be so giving

I feel free I hope that you are willing

Pick the beat up and kick your feet up

Dance with me

Let it lift you off the ground

Starry eyes and love is all around us

I can take you if you want to go

Oh oh

Orleans — Dance With Me

Lenders and borrowers dance with disaster. Borrowers have the lead in the amend-pretend-extend fandango, but as the economy improves, along with lender balance sheets, lenders will take the lead. As the default shuffle plays out, wallflowers who chose not to cha-cha are wilting under the economic distress caused when the music stopped. Dancers are short on chairs.

Walking One Block Damaged By The Housing Crisis

by Tamara Keith

Dana Lane doesn't look devastated.

It's part of a California subdivision built in the late 1980s, a mix of stucco and wood siding with mismatched fences. It looks like so many working-class suburban blocks.

But since the foreclosure crisis started, Riverside County, Calif., has ranked near the top of the list for its rate of homes being taken back by banks. This is a county that has long attracted Los Angeles refugees who drove east until they could afford to buy, then had to commute hours every day. Neighborhoods are hurting. Even people who didn't get swept up in the bubble have been hurt by the bust.

Dana Lane is one particularly hard-hit block in the city of Moreno Valley. There are hints of what its residents have been through — a broken window, for-sale signs and brown lawns.

More than two years into the housing bust, 20 percent of the homes on Dana Lane have gone into foreclosure, and residents here wonder who will be next.

It is difficult for us to relate in our elitist bubble here in Irvine, but prices have been crushed in neighborhoods where borrowers in default have been foreclosed from their homes. Many more foreclosures are yet to come.

Fall from entitlement

Anita Sandoval stopped paying her mortgage five months ago. …

The house across the street just went for $75,000 in a foreclosure sale.

"And I bought mine for $260,000, and it's the exact same home," Sandoval says. "I've been in the house. It's the exact same home." [Ouch!]

But that's not why Sandoval stopped making her mortgage payments. Her savings ran out, and she was finally hit with the painful reality that she and her husband really couldn't afford this house. They never could.

Isn't that a textbook example of The Unceremonious Fall from Entitlement?

HELOC Abuse Riverside County Style

The Bubble Mindset

"Like everybody else, I'm in an upside-down loan," says Brenda Moore, who owes more than $300,000 on her mortgage. This is remarkable considering she bought her house in 1989 for $80,000. A search of public records reveals that Moore, a retired nurse, has refinanced her home eight times since 1998.

The loans are from a who's who of subprime lenders. With each loan she took out more equity, and each time the loan terms got worse.

"Hey, I had a lot of equity, so I would just go in there using it and having a lot of things done — outside and inside," Moore says.

Please, help me with the HELOC abuse grade. Based on her statement — and the fact that she quadrupled her mortgage — would you characterize her spending as thoughtless? She clearly rationalizes spending appreciation, so the grade is at least a D. But do you think she maintained her delusion that she was not spending her house? Or did she cross the line to earn an E?

Moore replaced a sagging fence. She put in new carpet and a tile floor in the kitchen. But that doesn't explain where all the money went. Most of it didn't go to tangible things; it went to raising her five grandchildren and two great-grandchildren even after she was no longer able to work.

At one point, Moore had just pulled out a chunk of equity when a family member passed away. She used the money to help pay for the burial.

"So that was a blessing because I had just — about a week [ago] — had just did the refi and was going to do some more work around the house, and that happened," Moore says.

Who are we kidding here? She blew the money on her entitlements. Even her justifications are weak. This woman spent the money obtained from her home through mortgage equity withdrawal as if this money were earned income. She carelessly managed her finances and created a Ponzi Scheme of debt. Her theft was enabled by her victim, so it is difficult to apportion blame, but there is plenty of guilt to go around. Is that character deserving of sympathy? And your tax money? Not that you have much choice in the matter….

When it got to the point that she could no longer make her mortgage payments, Moore thought about walking away.

But she says the Lord intervened. A nonprofit group helped her get a loan modification. Her payments have been cut in half. When a reporter tells her about the Betts family down the street, she seems a little surprised that there's anyone on the block who didn't refinance.

She is surprised her moral bankruptcy wasn't shared by her neighbors. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds documents this behavior over the centuries; it's nothing new.

The Lord is now fostering moral hazard? The Lord wanted to bail this woman out rather than see her experience the consequences of her decisions? That isn't the Being I revere. A 50% reduction in payment means her modification is acting like an Option ARM, and this woman will be in foreclosure once banks stop dancing. I wonder if she will feel blessed then?

"So that's good they didn't have to," Moore says. "But then, too, I look at it this way: You're sitting on a bank, so if you can use it, use it because you can't take it with you, so enjoy it while you can."

Any of you that thought she earned a HELOC abuse grade of D rather than an E because you thought her spending was not thoughtless, do you want to rethink your grade?

My Heroes

[William and Laura Betts live on Dana Lane in the community of Moreno Valley, Calif. The couple stand out because they actually paid off their mortgage in 2005. William, who lost his job in November 2009, is glad they don't have to worry about making payments on their house.]

The bubble mindset here was infectious, but it didn't affect everyone.

William and Laura Betts stand out on Dana Lane. They've actually paid off their mortgage. They made their last payment in 2005 at the height of the refinance frenzy. It was a goal from the moment they moved in back in 1986.

This couple made paying off a mortgage a goal and a priority just as I recommend in Time to Payoff and Accelerated Amortization.

"Payment was $750, I think, and the very first payment we sent in 10 extra dollars, and they sent it back because we had to pay at least a whole month's principle, and that was $15 or something — I forget the exact number, but it was more than we had sent in," says William Betts.

Resisting Temptation

Every month they sent in a little extra. They are Mormon and say their faith guided them to be fiscally responsible. Sure, they got calls from mortgage brokers who were eager to help them turn their home into an ATM. But they resisted. They weren't even tempted.

"I'd hear the commercials on the radio about OK, 'This is the ultimate refinance.' And then three months later, the same company and the same radio host was [saying], 'This is the ultimate final refinance,' " William Betts recalls. "And you know that things just can't keep going like they're going without something happening. You think, this is crazy, this is insane. These people — they're foolish." …

It didn't take a PhD in economics to realize the housing bubble was wrong. In fact, that is perhaps the most upsetting element of the entire injustice: anyone could have seen this coming if they chose to open their eyes.

When William Betts thinks about what's happened to this street, he doesn't resent his neighbors' choices or the nice furniture and granite countertops they bought with imagined equity. He just feels bad for them.

"How do I say this?" Betts asks. "Most of our neighbors, I think, sold their inheritance for a bowl of pottage. The Jet Skis are gone, and so is their house." …

I have stated the same many times; conspicuous consumption can be viewed with pity and astonishment rather than envy and jealousy.

Back in November, Betts lost his job. It's the second time in four years he and his wife have had to live off of savings and unemployment. But at least they don't have to worry about their home.

"I just remember the day that we signed the papers that the house was now ours," Betts recalls. "You know, I've slept pretty good every night since then, 'cause when you own your house, you never have to worry about where you're going to live."

That is inner peace emanating from true financial freedom, and it is this family's reward for showing fiscal discipline, ignoring the Joneses, and living a virtuous life. It is sad that they are getting punished for the insanity around them; worst of all, they are being forced to pay for it in taxes as well.

Home prices in this neighborhood may have bottomed — nobody knows. The Bettses' home is now worth little more than it was when they bought it 25 years ago — not much of a reward for doing everything right.

But that's not how the Bettses see it: "Be it ever so humble," says William Betts, "it's ours."

I respect everything these people thought, said, and did.

These are financial titans worthy of much more respect than fools like the Emperor of Irvine. Net worth isn't the value of assets you control, it's the difference between asset value and debt. Debt subtracts from wealth. Debt does not make people rich.

More than a year ago, I wrote Responsible Homeowners are NOT Losing Their Homes. This couple proves it.

Responsible homeowners are NOT losing their homes.

To see the truth in this statement, one needs to have a clear definition of “responsible homeowner.”

A “responsible homeowner” is a buyer who, if they utilized financing, did not stray from the conservative parameters set forth by lenders (prior to the bubble) and financial planners. This includes using a maximum 28% debt-to-income ratio on the mortgage, at least a 20% down payment and fixed-rate conventionally amortizing financing.

Few who fit this definition are going to lose their homes; although, some of them may chose to walk away from the debt because they are hopelessly underwater. The only ones who fit the above definition who are in danger of losing their homes are those who lose jobs; they are the truly sad casualties of the housing bubble. Unfortunately, this is becoming more common due to the financial crisis caused by all the homeowners who borrowed irresponsibly.

Responsible borrowers are not the ones defaulting on their mortgages; irresponsible homeowners are.

If “responsible homeowner” is defined as a buyer who believed they could manage their monthly payment and did so until the loan terms changed, then by this definition, many responsible homeowners are going to lose their homes.

Almost everyone who signed up for a toxic loan thought they could make the payment; most did for a while. Many were convinced they could make the payments by a predatory lender out to make a few bucks on the origination. Many more believed they could supplement their incomes with the rapid appreciation they would enjoy as their house values rose to infinity. Does ignorance to their inability to sustain their housing payments make them responsible?

With so many Californians believing and acting like the irresponsible loan owners at the beginning of this profile, and with so few Californians believing and acting as our heroes, it becomes very difficult to foresee what the future holds. Contrary to popular belief that the housing bust is behind us, we are only in the 4th inning. The consequences of the bust — millions of foreclosures — have been delayed and deferred but not avoided. Will California kool aid survive the bust resulting in permanently inflated prices?

Irvine Home Address … 43 SANTA COMBA Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price … $799,990

Home Purchase Price … $680,000

Home Purchase Date …. 2/9/2010

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $71,991

Percent Change ………. 17.6%

Annual Appreciation … 101.6%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$799,990 ………. Asking Price

$159,998 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.00% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$639,992 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$165,646 ………. Income Requirement

$3,436 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$693 ………. Property Tax

$250 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$67 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$47 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,493 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$840 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$769 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$311 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$100 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,295 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$8,000 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$8,000 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,400 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$159,998 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$182,398 ………. Total Cash Costs

$50,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$232,898 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 43 SANTA COMBA Irvine, CA 92606

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4 Beds

2 full 1 part baths Baths

2,300 sq ft Home size

($348 / sq ft)

6,005 sq ft Lot Size

Year Built 1996

8 Days on Market

MLS Number S608182

Single Family, Residential Property Type

Westpark Community

Tract Mon

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Remodeled and Customized 4/5 Bedroom Home at End of Cul De Sac. Entry to Sunny Living Room with High Ceilings and Custom Modern Flooring. Kitchen with Nook Opens to Family Room with Cozy Fireplace and Sliders to Large Backyard with lots of grass. Kitchen is upgraded with Stainless Steel Oven, Dishwasher and Sink, Glass Back Splash and Modern Decor European Cabinets. Main Floor Bedroom Now Used as Den, could be office of converted to 5th Bedroom. Master Suite Has Dual Vanity Sinks, Shower Stall, Tub and Large Walk-in Closet. Large drive-way, and only 4 homes at the end of the Cul de Sac, so great for children to play.. Apx 42 Acre Irvine Memorial Park Nearby with Tennis courts, Soccer Fields, Softball Diamonds, Batting Cages, Outdoor Amphitheatre, Gardens, Fountains, Large Playground, Tot Lot and Gazebo with Picnic Tables. THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE OR A BANK REO, EQUITY SELLER CAN CLOSE QUICKLY.. OPEN HOUSE MARCH 13 – 12:00 TO 4:00

The flipper spent money well on staging.

Location, Location, Location:

Do you think this site may have some sound and air quality issues?

In the post, Do We Owe Baby Boomers Their Imagined Home Equity for Retirement? I profiled 55 Castillo which was also a corner property. I speculated then as I do now, "Do you think asset managers are disposing of their worst properties first?"

Previous Owners

I am not sure how to grade these owners as HELOC abusers; the choices are D, E, or F. Please help me out.

They purchased the property on 4/29/2005 for $865,000. They used a $692,000 first mortgage, an $86,500 second mortgage, and an $86,500 downpayment. On 12/11/2007 they refinanced with an ARM for $852,000 which withdrew all but $13,000 of their downpayment that was subsequently lost. They defaulted about a year later:

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/10/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/04/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

When these owners took out the new loan and withdrew most of their downpayment, what was going through their minds? If there were merely setting up a routine practice of equity extraction to fuel consumer spending, then they earn a D. If they took this money out carelessly, then they earn a E, but if they took this money out knowing they were likely to go under, then they gamed the system and earn an F.

One Defaulting Owner's Free Ride: Three Years and Counting

Freeloaders enjoying the entitled life are not confined to subprime areas. Today's featured property may be the worst case of housing entitlement in the country, and it is right here in Irvine.

Irvine Home Address … 14 BLUEBELL Irvine, CA 92618

Resale Home Price …… $469,900

{book1}

The mountain is high, the valley is low

And you're confused 'bout which way to go

So I flew here to give you a hand

And lead you into the promised land

So, come on and take a free ride (free ride)

Come on and take it by my side

Come on and take a free ride

All over the country, I'm seeing the same

Nobody's winning, at this kind of game

The Edgar Winter Group — Free Ride

If people get to have free rides, don't you want to be one of them? Looks like great fun to me. I can see why everyone wants to own a house in California; you get a nice entitlement during the rough times, and you get free money during the good times. Where do I sign up?

Recently, I exposed The Face of Housing Entitlement Today.

… from the LA Times article Many borrowers in default live for free as lenders delay evictions:

Despite being months behind, many strapped residents are hanging on to their homes, essentially living rent-free. Pressure on banks to modify loans and a glut of inventory are driving the trend.

[Patricia and Eugene Harrison, who bought their Perris home seven years ago, have lived there since October 2008 without making any payments on their mortgage. (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times / February 19, 2010)]

Do you think any unemployed renters who are failing to pay rent are living that well? Full dinner plates, a solid roof, mementos and permanent storage, comfortable surroundings; we endow these entitlements on those who own. …

If you can sign your name to a mortgage, you no longer have to fear homelessness, and your level of entitlement increases significantly. …

[Pictured above: Unemployed renter and family who failed to sign loan documents and squat in a house]

Many people astutely observed that squatting is more common in Riverside County, mostly due to higher levels of unemployment, but Irvine is not immune to its effect. In fact, people squat in Irvine houses just as they do in the valley of the dirt people, and in the case of today's featured property, it is much, much worse.

Irvine's Housing Entitlement

I first profiled today's featured property back in September of 2009 in the post Bluebell, a shocking example of gaming the system here in Irvine.

  • The owner of today's featured property paid $465,000 on 10/23/2003. She used a $372,000 first mortgage, a $93,000 second mortgage, and a $0 down payment.
  • On 12/30/2004 she refinanced into an Option ARM for $486,500.
  • Two months later on 2/3/2005 she opened a HELOC for $67,000.
  • Total property debt is $553,500 plus 3 years of missed payments, negative amortization, and fees.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $88,500.

Consider what this woman accomplished:

  1. She put no money into the transaction. None.
  2. She extracted $88,500 in just over one year. That is nearly the median income in Irvine, and that money came to her without tax withholding.
  3. She has lived in the property since 2003, and in the full term of ownership, she has not made payments totaling what she pulled from the property.

I admit to feeling foolish. I looked at property in late 2003, and I deemed it too expensive. It never occurred to me that anyone could accomplish what this woman has done, or I might have followed in her footsteps. I feel like an idiot struggling to actually pay for my housing costs when I could have obtained a free ride for the last seven years. I hope lenders know that California borrowers are learning their lessons well.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/08/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/03/2008

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/28/2008

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/08/2007

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/25/2007

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 01/24/2007

Document Type: Notice of Default

As I noted six months ago:

The owner of this property stopped making payments sometime in late 2006. It has been over two and one-half years [now three years] since this owner stopped paying, and she is still listed as the property owner, so one can assume she still occupies the property. That is two and one-half years without a housing payment—a bill we will all pick up as taxpayers at some point. How does that make you feel? Did you pay for your housing since 2006? I did.

The place looks very lived-in. Despite not paying a mortgage or rent, the owner looks in no hurry to leave.

It is a mess but not a packing mess…

How many of you who have been paying for your housing are living this well?

Irvine Home Address … 14 BLUEBELL Irvine, CA 92618

Resale Home Price … $469,900

Home Purchase Price … $465,000

Home Purchase Date …. 10/23/2003

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(23,294)

Percent Change ………. 1.1%

Annual Appreciation … 0.1%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$469,900 ………. Asking Price

$16,447 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

5.00% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$453,454 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$97,297 ………. Income Requirement

$2,434 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$407 ………. Property Tax

$150 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$39 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$114 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,145 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$402 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$545 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$32 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$59 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,289 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$4,699 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,699 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,535 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$16,447 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$30,379 ………. Total Cash Costs

$35,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$65,379 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 14 BLUEBELL Irvine, CA 92618

——————————————————————————

2 Beds

1 full 1 part baths Baths

1,508 sq ft Home size

($312 / sq ft)

2,000 sq ft Lot Size

Year Built 2000

4 Days on Market

MLS Number S608286

Condominium, Residential Property Type

Oak Creek Community

Tract Acac

——————————————————————————

LIVE THE DREAM IN THIS MAGNIFICENT 2 BEDROOM PLUS LOFT/OFFICE, 2.5 BATHROOM OAK CREEK HOME. SOME OF THE MANY FEATURES INCLUDE RICH, STRESSED HARDWOOD FLOORS THRU-OUT MAIN LEVEL, 2 MASTER SUITES, CUSTOMIZED WINDOW TREATMENTS, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, LARGE CENTER ISLAND WITH BAR TOP, TILE COUNTERS, PLUS A PRIVATE BACKYARD, WALKING PAVERS AND LUSH, MATURE SOFTSCAPE. DON'T MISS OUT ON THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME!

Live the dream? Yes, my dream is to live in this house for several years at no cost. Can you do that for me?

BTW, what is this picture supposed to show me? And are you tilting your head to the left?