IHB News 8-28-2010

I have an extremely overpriced Turtle Rock home for you to giggle about this weekend.

Irvine Home Address … 4 SUNPEAK Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $2,745,000

One foot on the brake and one on the gas, hey!

Well, there's too much traffic, I can't pass, no!

So I tried my best illegal move

A big black and white come and crushed my groove again!

Go on and write me up for 125

Post my face, wanted dead or alive

Take my license n' all that jive

'cause I can't drive 55!

Sammy Hagar — I Can't Drive 55

IHB News

The flipping fund closes in 3 weeks. I reported two weeks ago that firm commitments were over $1,000,000. Now that number stands at $1,425,000. I still believe I will reach $2,000,000. There are still 19 Sophisticated investor spots available.

I had been falling behind in my library updates, so Zovall developed an automated system that keeps me up-to-date at all times. For those of you wanting to find a post in the archives, it is now much easier to locate what you are looking for.

Writer's Corner

I cleaned out my office at work this week. I am still doing hourly work and helping with business development, but I no longer go to an office every day. I don't know what my future will be with the land development industry. I enjoy design work, but over the last 3 years, I haven't done very much of it — and neither has anyone else. I am still seeing no green shoots in the homebuilding or development industry.

It's sad really. You spend your adult life gaining experience and increasing the depth and scope of your knowledge in a given profession, and suddenly that skill is no longer in demand. Perhaps if demand picks up, I may go back to that work, or at least do some hourly work on interesting projects. For now, I am focusing my energy on establishing a fund and creating a new professional life. I am not the only one in my industry that has been compelled to find other methods of making a living.

This new venture is very exciting. I am still mourning what may be the passing of my past career, but I am very excited about this new challenge. I feel like a sportscar that has been kept in the garage too long. In fact, last week I had a dream that I was driving a lime-green Lamborghini. I remember taking it out and fumbling with the gears and feeling a bit lost in a sea of gauges. I didn't get it up to top speed, but after a few minutes of driving, I felt like I was in control of the vehicle, and the power was exhilarating.

In my dreams, I have noticed that vehicles I drive are often symbolic of how I view my own life. I don't want to own a lime-green Lamborghini, but as a symbol of refined power with unique style, I can't think of a more appropriate automobile. If my subconscious views my new life this way, it stands in stark contrast to the sense of helplessness I felt at times during the recession. I guess part of me is more excited about the future than consciously I realize. I want to thank all the fund subscribers who have expressed their confidence in my ability to make this venture a success. I am looking forward to hitting top gear.

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

Fri Aug 27 2010

Pierce the Housing Bubble! (nytimes.com)

House Prices May Drop Another 25% (theatlantic.com)

Another Record Low for Housing (economix.blogs.nytimes.com)

Burning Down the House; New House Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, Record Low (Mish)

Rosenberg Explains Why Not One New House Priced Over $750,000 Sold In July (zerohedge.com)

Housing market continues to decline (csmonitor.com)

Lack of Jobs, Foreclosures May Keep U.S. Housing Depressed (bloomberg.com)

New Foreclosure Numbers Reverse MBA Survey's "Bright Spots" (cnbc.com)

Experts Say Housing No Longer Builds Wealth (irvinehousingblog.com)

An unsupportable American dream (nationalpost.com)

The Housing Bubble: The Economists Should Have Known (newgeography.com)

After Housing Bubble, the Dark Side of Houseowner Dreams (time.com)

Treasury Admits Program for Struggling Houseowners Just a Ploy to Enrich Big Banks (alternet.org)

The Fed's Monetary Insanity (atimes.com)

Great Firewall of China Blocks Posting To Patrick.net (patrick.net)

Commercial Property Owners Choose to Default (online.wsj.com)

Living For Free: No Mortgage Payment In 32 Months And Not Kicked Out Yet (dailybail.com)

Free Trial of Patrick's Property Finder


Thu Aug 26 2010

July new house sales fall to slowest pace on record (sfgate.com)

New-House Sales Declined Sharply Last Month (nytimes.com)

Existing-House Sales Sink to Lowest Level Ever Recorded (irvinehousingblog.com)

Slightly lower prices and rates can't slow fall in house sales (finance.yahoo.com)

Why nobody wants to buy a house (marketwatch.com)

Are slow housing sales always a bad thing? Hell no! (blogs.forbes.com)

It's okay to walk away (finance.yahoo.com)

Inventory Explodes Past the Worst of the Housing Crash (housingstory.net)

House Sales: Distressing Gap between new and used (calculatedriskblog.com)

The Newest Rip-Off in Housing: Builder's resale fee, forever (market-ticker.org)

Fed's Evans Says U.S. Recovery Uncertain as Housing Not Out of the Woods (bloomberg.com)

Federal Reserve Can't Do Much More to Boost Job Growth, Economy (dailyfinance.com)

Hard-nosed Fed sends global markets reeling (telegraph.co.uk)

Why does a tiny Tel Aviv flat cost as much as a house in Florida? (haaretz.com)

Foreclosures on rise in Oregon (spotlightnews.net)

Home is where the hurt is in today's housing market (suntimes.com)

Congress got loans from Countrywide in exchange for corrupt lawmaking (washingtonpost.com)

Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending (From 1999 – nytimes.com)

Free Trial of Patrick's Property Finder


Wed Aug 25 2010

Overpriced-house Sales Plummet – Which Was The Statistical Blip? (bayarearealestatetrends.com)

Existing overpriced-house Sales Plunge 27%, Worse than Every Economist Forecast (Mish)

Overpriced-house sales plunge 27 pct. to lowest in 15 years (sfgate.com)

Overpriced-house Sales at Lowest Level in More Than a Decade (nytimes.com)

Houses will still sell, but only at LOWER PRICES (poughkeepsiejournal.com)

Frightened Sellers Who Missed the Market Lower Prices in a Panic (irvinehousingblog.com)

Will Growing Rental Trends Undermine US Overpriced-house Sales? (realestatechannel.com)

The Renting Alternative Will Undermine Housing Bubble For Years (businessinsider.com)

Double-dip in housing prices may be around the corner (money.cnn.com)

Mortgage Fraud Is Rising, With a Twist (finance.yahoo.com)

Woman Wall Street Hates Most Is Suited for Job (bloomberg.com)

Economists blew the bubble (bostonherald.com)

Judges Taking Tougher Line on Bank Bailouts (blogs.nytimes.com)

The other trillion dollar bailout (mybudget360.com)

How To Be Homeless In America (patrick.net)

Free Trial of the Landlord's Property Finder


Tue Aug 24 2010

Let the Housing Market Normalize! (paul.house.gov)

How houseownership fetish hurt American dream (washingtonpost.com)

15 Signs US Housing Market Headed For Complete And Total Collapse (businessinsider.com)

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth (nytimes.com)

Housing Is No Longer An Attractive Investment, Now What? (theatlantic.com)

Now they tell us experts say housing is a lousy investment and always will be (finance.yahoo.com)

The Shills Are Still Shilling Housing (market-ticker.org)

The Ones That Gave & Took Away Your Equity (blog.youwalkaway.com)

House sales collapse in the Triangle (newsobserver.com)

Even high-end properties can't escape foreclosure wave in Palm Beach County (palmbeachpost.com)

Happy 5th Birthday Housing Crash! (bayarearealestatetrends.com)

Housing Slide in US Threatens to Drag Economy Into Recession (bloomberg.com)

Housing already in double-dip (cnbc.com)

Housing inflation ramped up starting in the 1990s (doctorhousingbubble.com)

Australia's real estate bubble (ibtimes.com)

Debt's Deadly Grip (nytimes.com)

House resale fees: latest rip-off (money.cnn.com)

Foreclosure process doesn't stop during short sales (rgj.com)

Brokers See a Rise in Clients' Hostility (nytimes.com)

Free Trial of the Landlord's Property Finder


Mon Aug 23 2010

One Couple's New American Dream: Rent, Don't Buy (npr.org)

Seven Reasons Why You Shouldn't Buy a House (dailyfinance.com)

N. Calif house sales drop 23 percent in July (sfgate.com)

SF Bay Area and Calif. continue to lose jobs in July (contracostatimes.com)

Big California Earthquake May Come Sooner Than Expected (aolnews.com)

Texas actually not immune from housing crash (Mish)

Mansion squatters return in a big way (seattletimes.nwsource.com)

Housing Double Dip Is Not Just Tax Credit Hangover (cnbc.com)

Your House Might Be Underwater for Years (bloomberg.com)

Housing affordability through LOWER PRICES not even considered by govt (theautomaticearth)

Ireland to make house sale prices public by law (Irish with subtitles – tg4.ie)

Government Robs Working Renters to Subsidize Unemployed Homedebtors (irvinehousingblog.com)

Banks want federal guarantee of mortgage profits (contracostatimes.com)

How Pimco Is Holding the American Houseowner Hostage (minyanville.com)

Treasury yields fall to 17-month lows amid economic woes (money.cnn.com)

Interest rates 'may hit 8pc' in two years (telegraph.co.uk)

Commercial Real Estate Price Index declines 4% in June (calculatedriskblog.com)

Rising pay, benefits drive growth in military towns (usatoday.com)

"National Security Letter" Makes You Disappear (sott.net)

'John Doe' Who Fought FBI Spying Freed From National Security Letter After 6 Years (wired.com)

Irvine Home Address … 4 SUNPEAK Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $2,745,000

Home Purchase Price … $1,679,000

Home Purchase Date …. 1/2/2008

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $901,300

Percent Change ………. 53.7%

Annual Appreciation … 18.3%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$2,745,000 ………. Asking Price

$549,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.50% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$2,196,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$536,471 ………. Income Requirement

$11,127 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$2379 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$229 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$269 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$14,004 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1716 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$2892 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$915 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$343 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$10,654 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$27,450 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$27,450 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$21,960 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$549,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$625,860 ………. Total Cash Costs

$163,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$789,160 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 4 SUNPEAK Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

Beds: 5

Baths: 4 full 1 part baths

Home size: 4,782 sq ft

($574 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 8,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1996

Days on Market: 70

Listing Updated: 40416

MLS Number: S621933

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Turtle Rock

Tract: Cust

——————————————————————————

HUGE PRICE DROP. Live at the pinnacle in the hills of Turtle Rock. Beautiful custom home, tastefully remodeled in the last 3 years. On a coveted street where homes rarely come of the market, this jewel estate enjoys panoramic views of rolling hills of Shady Canyon by day & twinkling city lights by night. Classic exterior architecture is complemented with elegant interiors. The one of a kind floorplan is ideal for multi-generational living and provides flexibility with 3 potential master suites, including one downstairs! The grand entry foyer greets you w/a sweeping staircase, 2 story high ceilings adjoining to the immpresive formal great room. Entertain in the huge family room which includes an oversized built-in bar w/granite counters and seating for 6, walk in wine closet, built-in entertainment center, even room for a game table! A chef's dream kitchen has it all & includes 2 islands. Dine in the sunny nook or intimate dining room. Ideal dwnstrs home office/den. Even 4 fireplaces!

immpresive?

HUGE PRICE DROP? LOL! This property is at least a $1,000,000 overpriced. It desperately needs a huge price drop.

realtors Treated as Lackeys and Maids Grovel for 6%

A little Friday schadenfreude for you. Apparently, realtors have to work for their 6% these days.

Irvine Home Address … 37 PLYMOUTH Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $649,000

There's a new game

We like to play you see

A game with added reality

You treat me like a dog

Get me down on my knees

Depeche Mode — Master and Servant

Schadenfreude: joy in the misfortune of others. We all know we shouldn't do it, but sometimes we just can't help ourselves. As I noted in The Reservoir of Schadenfreude:

Schadenfreude is not a spiritually uplifting response. Most religious traditions would counsel us against it. In Buddhist teaching, people are taught to cultivate feelings of compassion for the misfortune of others — feeling empathy and sadness for the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune when they impact another. The near enemy of compassion is pity: it masquerades as compassion, but it has an element of separateness which detracts from the sense of Oneness with all things. Joy is good: Sympathetic joy, the joy in the happiness of another, is another pillar of a spiritual existence. However, joy in the misfortune of another — schadenfreude — is not a skillful behavior leading to happiness. Even knowing that, many of us feel this joy anyway. Why is that?

Because it feels good! Why do we eat garbage that we know isn't good for us? Because it tastes good! Schadenfreude is one of life's guilty pleasures, and today, we get to enjoy a healthy does at the expense of realtors.

Client to Broker: Clean My Windows!

By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY

Published: August 23, 2010

Even in the strongest economies, New Yorkers of sound mind find that talking with a real estate broker can result in rolled eyes, raised voices and a New York version of “taking it outside” by threatening litigation. But now, as the sales market whimpers along in the languid last days of summer, some brokers say they have never been met by so many demands from their clients, or so much hostility.

Victoria Shtainer, a Prudential Douglas Elliman broker, said one current client had asked her to arrive two hours before open houses to clean for her. Another client, a group of corporate executives from Texas, insisted on being driven around the city at various times for five weeks.

“The behavior goes from good to bad very quickly,” said Chris A. Randolph, a Barak Realty agent who has worked with two recent clients who gave him the brunt of their anger. One client would only grunt and acted so morose in front of brokers that they called Mr. Randolph to ask what they had done to offend his client.

“I feel like the waitress where I get blamed for everything that happens,” he said.

Pressure comes from all sides. Renters want the perks their friends negotiated. Buyers, hearing about drops in prices, think they should pay far less than the asking price. Sellers are angry because they are not getting the prices they once expected, and are wondering why, when the Internet has made it easier to market their own apartments, they should have to pay a 6 percent commission, or whether brokers ought to be doing more to earn it — for instance, cleaning.

The pressure from both sides of the transaction is what makes brokerage challenging. If it were easy, we wouldn't need realtors at all…. I won't pursue that thread much further.

And brokers who remember when their advice was eagerly welcomed are having to adjust their egos as clients take all of these feelings out on them.

Since realtors are trained to tell both buyers and sellers whatever they want to hear, it isn't surprising that realtors became accustomed to having their poor advice eagerly welcomed. It isn't until the general public realizes that realtors are self-serving and their advice is bullshit that people no longer find it valuable.

“They treat us like we’re starving and we need to do them all kinds of favors to possibly make some money,” said Michele Conte, a Corcoran Group broker who was recently asked by one former client to help her sell her apartment without a commission. She agreed to help, in hopes that the former client might eventually hire her.

Of course, these complaints are unlikely to bring tears to the eyes of the numerous New Yorkers who have dealt with unsavory brokers. The New York Department of State is receiving, on average, about 80 complaints a month about brokers. That is down from 100 a month last year and 110 in 2006, but it is not clear whether brokers are behaving better or whether the slower market means fewer opportunities for them to butt heads with clients.

A decline in complaints is undoubtedly the result of fewer transactions. Has anyone noticed an increase in the quality of realtors lately?

One broker who complained to this reporter about a demanding client provided e-mails that showed her own comments were actually more hostile. “It is not your way or no way,” one of the messages said.

How stupid is that? Turning over incriminating emails without realizing it isn't very bright.

Still, brokers want it known that they are members of the human race who need to eat and will bleed if pricked.

I suppose this is where we stop to feel compassion… not.

Sarah Parsons, a Halstead agent, said that in the 11 years she had worked as a broker, she had never encountered so many unrealistic clients as in the past year.

One buyer demanded that she limit his co-op board interview to 30 minutes. Another demanded that she negotiate 30 percent off the price of a distressed apartment in Williamsburg, Brooklyn, then grew angry at her when he had trouble getting financing. She says more sellers are micromanaging her as well.

“The buyers got more demanding, and the sellers got more frightened,” Ms. Parsons said.

Elyse Goldstein, an Upper East Side psychologist, said she had heard from brokers that clients were taking out their frustrations on them.

“When people are anxious, it stirs up their primitive defense mechanisms,” Dr. Goldstein said. She added that New Yorkers were faced with “disillusionment about what they can buy,” which she said “freaks them out.”

Ms. Shtainer, a broker who is also a lawyer, said she had been enlisted by executives of a Texas company that wanted to buy two furnished apartments for as much as $5 million — a deal that could have brought her up to $100,000, after she divided the commission with the selling brokers and with her firm.

So she acceded to demands that she considered to be excessive: that she pick them up at the airport when they came to visit, that she drive them around, that she photograph every detail of apartments they visited and that she speak with them in conference calls late into the night.

She said the executives had alienated sellers by moving slowly during negotiations and demanding that a furnished apartment include the seller’s personal effects like a coffee maker, a fax machine and pillows.

Then, after all that, they fired her.

And for the client who wanted her to arrive two hours before the open house to scrub the windows and tables? Ms. Shtainer came only one hour early, but she scrubbed.

“I have three kids to feed,” she said.

Why am I annoyed with realtors?

I am involved with real estate transactions, so why do I find realtors so distasteful? For the record, I am not a realtor. I have MLS access as an independent broker. I chose not to become part of their organization because it is too rotten to reform from within.

Bank in January I wrote Urgency Versus Reality: realtors Win, Buyers Lose, the Ideal Home Brokers manifesto. In short, I am bothered by realtors because they have a disregard for the truth. It isn't that they are liars — although some of them knowing dispel inaccurate information — it is that they just don't care. When a realtor tells a buyer that prices are going up, they may be right, but right or wrong they really don't care, they only want to tell the buyer what the buyer wants to hear to facilitate a sale. I think this behavior is deplorable, and I am openly hostile toward those who engage in it.

So every once in a while, when I see a juicy article like the one above, I will take my shots at realtors. Perhaps after three years of greatly reduced incomes, I should feel more compassion for their plight. I need to hear the NAr come out an apologize to everyone they pushed into buying homes they could not afford with emotional ploys and ridiculous financial claims. I need to see them stop their endless bullshitting and attempts to create a false sense of urgency in buyers. I need to know they are truly sorry that their actions lead people into the foreclosure meat grinder. Then I may feel their pain. Until then, I will feel the schadenfreude I shouldn't allow myself, and I will make no apologies for it.

She was there for the money

The property records do not reflect that this property was purchased by the current owner in 2004. The sales price and initial mortgage information is not provided. There was a sale in 1998, but that owner sold to the current owner on 8/26/2004. In any case, the woman who bought this property was an equity stripping spender.

  • On 3/4/2005 she borrowed $35,000 from a private party — and probably had a great private party with the money.
  • On 7/21/2005, the money she borrowed long gone, she refinanced the first mortgage for $535,000.
  • On 5/8/2006 she refinanced again with a $676,000 first mortgage.
  • On 11/7/2006 she found a subprime lender to give her another $16,305.
  • She defaulted in late 2009.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/11/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 04/14/2010

The property is scheduled for auction on September 9, 2010.

I would consider this one

If there were a realistic chance of this short-sale property selling, I would consider buying it. At 4.51% interest rates, the payment is lower than rent — unless someone can show me a link to a 2,500 SF 4/2 with a pool that rents for less than $2,600. If anyone can find a better rental, please post the link, I am looking.

This property as priced with our current interest rates is clearly below rental parity. Properties selling for less than rental parity are the kind of deals we can expect to see more of over the next few years, particularly as prices roll over in the fall and winter of 2010-2011.

Irvine Home Address … 37 PLYMOUTH Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $649,000

Home Purchase Price … $295,500

Home Purchase Date …. 6/9/1998

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $314,560

Percent Change ………. 106.5%

Annual Appreciation … 6.2%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$649,000 ………. Asking Price

$129,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.51% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$519,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$126,987 ………. Income Requirement

$2,634 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$562 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$54 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,250 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$440 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$682 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$217 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$81 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,426 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,490 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,490 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,192 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$129,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$147,972 ………. Total Cash Costs

$37,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$185,072 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 37 PLYMOUTH Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 2,498 sq ft

($260 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,300 sq ft

Year Built: 1978

Days on Market: 11

Listing Updated: 40406

MLS Number: S629181

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Northwood

Tract: Pl

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Fantastic Opportunity to Live in Northwood! Large 4 Bedroom 3 Bathroom Pool Home with Additional Large Bonus Room Which Could Also Be Used As a 5th Bedroom. Huge Downstairs Master Bedroom with Walk-in Closet and Wet Bar. Elegant Formal Dining Room Plus Bright Breakfast Nook in Kitchen. Home Also Features Marble-Like Italian Ceramic Tile Floors, Vaulted Ceilings, Recessed Lighting, and a Gorgeous Marble Tiled Fireplace with Custom Wood Mantle. Pool, Spa, 3 Car Garage, Concrete Tile Roof, AND… **NO HOA DUES & NO MELLO ROOS!** This One Will Not Last Long. HURRY!!

Title Case, asterisks, ALL CAPS, multiple exclamation points, typical realtorspeak. Need I say more about the false sense of urgency?

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

Experts Say Housing No Longer Builds Wealth

Sentiment toward owner-occupied housing is changing, and people are starting to accept that housing is not the great investment they thought it was.

Irvine Home Address … 18 BAHIA Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $594,900

From the darkness, I walk into the light

From the day, I walk into the night

From the shadows, I will appear

With a message, for all who will hear

For the weak of heart, I will be strong

To the defenders of faith, I will belong

To the last of us, fight till we die

Till the keys, of the kingdom, are mine

Manowar — I Believe

Kool aid intoxication is an unshakable belief in real estate appreciation. As I wrote in Losing My Religion:

Baptism into the real estate religion is a metaphorical drinking of kool aid. The fundamental belief of this religion is a belief in the "higher power" of market forces — real estate values always go up. Once you accept this fundamental belief, the dogma of real estate can take over. The dogmatic practices of real estate include buying at any price and borrowing any sum you can. Since real estate always goes up, it doesn't matter how much you pay because you can always sell later for more money. Value has no meaning. Also, since you can pay back any borrowed sums when you sell, it doesn't matter how much you borrow or under what terms. Fabricating income on a mortgage application to qualify for a larger loan is perfectly acceptable behavior. Debt is something to be serviced not retired. It is foolish to borrow under terms which pay down a mortgage because equity appears through appreciation. There is no need to build equity through retiring debt. Besides, paying down debt is a slow process, and building equity through appreciation is much faster and requires less sacrifice. The lure of kool aid intoxication is very strong. It appeals to our fantasies of unlimited wealth and spending power.

People who accept religious tenets often face a crisis of faith at some point in their lives. John Spong wrote a book titled "Why Christianity Must Change or Die" in which he devotes a chapter to the Jewish exile to Babylon. It was a cultural crisis of faith where many of the fundamental beliefs of Judaism were challenged. California's religion of real estate is facing a similar crisis. The fundamental belief in endless house price appreciation is being challenged, and all the associated beliefs are similarly being called into question. Right now, most people are still in denial clinging to their faith in the forces of the housing market. Many will come to lament the Day the Market Died, many will continue to cling to Southern California's Cultural Pathology, and many will bargain for a renewal of the The California Social Contract.

Any core religious idea that can be empirically tested will face its ultimate challenge. The collapse of The Great Housing Bubble will prove that real estate values do not always go up, and in fact, real estate values can decline significantly. All of the associated beliefs built on this fundamental premise are equally false. People will be forced to examine the beliefs which guide their purchase decisions and their relationship to debt financing. Like any other crisis of faith, the loss of comforting and secure beliefs is emotionally painful, and the cleansing process will take time. Will kool aid intoxication survive? Probably, but there will be fewer faithful until meaningful appreciation returns and the army of realtors missionaries sets out to convert a new generation.

The article for today's post calls into question some of the basic beliefs Californians have about real estate. Some may lose their religion, but some will decide that despite the obvious contradictions, they still believe.

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say

By DAVID STREITFELD

Published: August 22, 2010

Housing will eventually recover from its great swoon. But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg.

The wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming.

More than likely, that era is gone for good.

I have written on many occasions about Our HELOC Economy. California is built on a foundation of borrowed money. We continually build Ponzi Schemes, and when they collapse and lenders no longer give us money, the entire economy grinds to a halt.

I believe it will take many years for lenders to repeat their mistakes of the bubble. The Ponzi era may not be gone for good, but unless the government starts backing cash-out refinancing and HELOCs, it is gone for the foreseeable future.

Of course, most current California home buyers don't see it that way. They believe HELOC riches are right around the corner, and banks will be willing to finance the profusion of personal Ponzi Schemes Californians are so fond of creating. It isn't going to happen.

“There is no iron law that real estate must appreciate,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate site Zillow. “All those theories advanced during the boom about why housing is special — that more people are choosing to spend more on housing, that more people are moving to the coasts, that we were running out of usable land — didn’t hold up.”

The fact that people believed these delusions amazes me. People were choosing to spend more on housing, but that was only because house prices were going up. More people were not moving to the coasts, but the people that were there were taking their home equity and buying multiple properties to create artificial demand. And despite running short of usable land, we have thousands of land deals all over California where the residual land value is negative right now. Each of these fallacies was promoted to the masses by the NAr to create false urgency to enrich realtors.

Instead, Mr. Humphries and other economists say, housing values will only keep up with inflation. A home will return the money an owner puts in each month, but will not multiply the investment.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, estimates that it will take 20 years to recoup the $6 trillion of housing wealth that has been lost since 2005. After adjusting for inflation, values will never catch up.

“People shouldn’t look at a home as a way to make money because it won’t,” Mr. Baker said.

If the long term is grim, the short term is grimmer. Housing experts are bracing themselves for Tuesday, when the sales figures for July will be released. The data is expected to show a drop of as much as 20 percent from last year.

The supply of homes sitting on the market might rise to as much as 12 months, about twice the level of a healthy market. That would push down prices as all those sellers compete to secure a buyer, adding to a slide that has already chopped off as much as 30 percent in home values.

Set against this dismal present and a bleak future, buying a home is a willful act of optimism. That explains why Adam and Allison Lyons are waiting to close on a $417,500 house in Deerfield, Ill.

“We’re trying not to think too far ahead,” said Ms. Lyons, 35, an information technology manager.

The couple’s first venture into real estate came in 2003 when they bought a condo in a 17-unit building under construction in Chicago. By the time they moved in two years later, it was already worth $50,000 more than they had paid. “We were thinking, great!” said Mr. Lyons, 34.

That quick appreciation started them on the same track as their parents, who watched the value of their houses ascend for decades. The real estate crash interrupted that pleasant dream. The couple cannot sell their condo. Unwillingly, they are becoming landlords.

“I don’t think we’re ever going to see the prosperity our parents did, but I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom either,” said Mr. Lyons, a manager at I.B.M. “At some point, you just have to say what the heck and go for it.”

Most people don't think about market conditions when they buy a home. Realistically, people buy and sell because of life's circumstances. This couple was going to buy now regardless of what happened in the market. Their house will decline in value for a while, but if they hold it long enough, they will be hurt less than those who bought from 2004-2008.

Other buyers have grand and even grander expectations.

In an annual survey conducted by the economists Robert J. Shiller and Karl E. Case, hundreds of new owners in four communities — Alameda County near San Francisco, Boston, Orange County south of Los Angeles, and Milwaukee — once again said they believed prices would rise about 10 percent a year for the next decade.

With minor swings in sentiment, the latest results reflect what new buyers always seem to feel. At the boom’s peak in 2005, they said prices would go up. When the market was sliding in 2008, they still said prices would go up.

“People think it’s a law of nature,” said Mr. Shiller, who teaches at Yale.

I am always astonished by how much people think house prices should go up — or even that house prices should go up at all. Do wages go up at 10% per year? Why should house prices go up any faster than wages? How can house prices go up faster than wages on a sustained basis? How are people supposed to pay for houses once it costs 100% or more of their income? Somehow logic seems to elude the average home buyer. Kool aid intoxication is very strong.

For the first half of the 20th century, he said, expectations followed the opposite path. Houses were seen the way cars are now: as a consumer durable that the buyer eventually used up.

The notion of housing as an investment first began to blossom after World War II, when the nesting urges of returning soldiers created a construction boom. Demand was stoked as their bumper crop of children grew up and bought places of their own. The inflation of the 1970s, which increased the value of hard assets, and liberal tax policies both helped make housing a good bet. So did the long decline in mortgage rates from the early 1980s.

Despite all these tailwinds, prices rose modestly for much of the period. Real home prices increased 1.1 percent a year after inflation, according to Mr. Shiller’s research.

By the late 1990s, however, the rate was 4 percent a year. Happy homeowners were taking about $100 billion a year out of their houses, which paid for a lot of good times.

“The experience we had from the late 1970s to the late 1990s was an aberration,” said Barry Ritholtz of the equity research firm Fusion IQ. “People shouldn’t be holding their breath waiting for it to happen again.”

Not everyone views the notion of real appreciation in real estate as a lost cause.

realtors will never accept that real estate appreciation is a lost cause, nor will anyone who likes to use this fallacy to generate false urgency in buyers.

Bob Walters, chief economist of the online mortgage firm Quicken, acknowledges that the recent collapse will create a “mind scar” just as the Great Depression did. But he argues that housing remains unique.

“You have to live somewhere,” he said. “In three or four years, people will resume a normal course, and home values will continue to increase.”

Housing is special. Irvine is different. How many times have we heard that bullshit before?

All homes are different, and some neighborhoods and regions will rebound more quickly. On the other hand, areas where there was intense overbuilding, like Arizona, will be extremely slow to show any sign of renewal.

“It’s entirely likely that markets like Arizona will not recover even in the 15- to 20-year time frame,” said Mr. Humphries of Zillow. “The demand doesn’t exist.”

Wrong. Arizona may not see peak prices for quite some time, but it will recover. Of all the distressed markets out there, Phoenix is one of those most likely to make a comeback. The economy is diverse and the population is growing. I would buy cashflow properties there if I had more contacts. I am more excited about Las Vegas mostly because I have the contacts to get cashflow properties there. The economic story in Phoenix is actually more compelling.

Owners in those foreclosure-plagued areas consider themselves lucky if they are still solvent. But that does not prevent the occasional regret that a life-changing sum of money was so briefly within their grasp.

Robert Austin, a Phoenix lawyer, paid $200,000 for his home in 2000. Five years later, his neighbors listed a similar home for $500,000.

Freedom beckoned. “I thought, when my daughter gets out of school, I can sell the house and buy a boat and sail around the world,” said Mr. Austin, 56.

His home is now worth about what he paid for it. As for that cruise, “it may be a while,” Mr. Austin said. Showing the hopefulness that is apparently innate to homeowners, he added: “But I won’t rule it out forever.”

The fantasies of Mr. Austin are shared by homeowners everywhere. He has been forced to let go of his fantasies whereas Orange County and Irvine home owners are still clinging to theirs.

The contrarian view

I would like to believe that stories like today's reflect a positive and permanent change in buyer attitudes, but there is another way to see it.

Housing must be nearing a bottom..

… Because now I'm starting to see more articles about how housing is a lousy investment and no one should buy a house. Anyone who's been paying attention knows that this statement is just a wrong as home ownership is always better than renting. Both statements are just flat out wrong. But that doesn't stop the pundits.

One sign of a market bottom is a change in sentiment. When an asset class is strongly out of favor with the investment community is often a great time to purchase it.

I believe we are about to see a leg down in house prices, but what happens after that is a mystery. There are far too many variables to predict. I am planning a future post to look at some of these scenarios and try to assess the probability of each. One possible scenario is that low interest rates persist until the inventory is absorbed, and the leg down we are about to see is the last one. This may not be the most likely scenario, but this winter should be (1) the bottom of the recession, (2) the peak of inventory, and (3) the bottom of buyer demand. When conditions are at their worst is often when markets find a durable bottom. Only time (and interest rates) will tell.

No money in, much money out

Houses were a great trading vehicle during the bubble. Lenders were giving houses to people with no money down, and when values went up, lenders gave people this money as well. With that kind of lender behavior, it isn't surprising that houses were in high demand.

  • The owner of today's featured property paid $570,000 on 1/9/2004. He used a $456,000 first mortgage, a $114,000 second mortgage, and a $0 down payment.
  • On 5/8/2006 he refinanced with a $586,000 Option ARM with a 1.25% teaser rate.
  • On 11/26/2007 Wells Fargo refinanced his first mortgage for $604,000 and gave him a $37,750 HELOC. How stupid is that?
  • Total property debt is $641,750.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $71,750.
  • Total squatting time was about 14 months.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 11/12/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee's Sale)

Click here to get Foreclosure Report.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/10/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Wells Fargo bought the property back for $663,586 on 6/10/2010. They will lose about $100K on the deal.

Irvine Home Address … 18 BAHIA Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $594,900

Home Purchase Price … $663,586

Home Purchase Date …. 6/10/2010

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(104,380)

Percent Change ………. -15.7%

Annual Appreciation … -42.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$594,900 ………. Asking Price

$118,980 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.51% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$475,920 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$116,401 ………. Income Requirement

$2,414 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$516 ………. Property Tax

$67 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$50 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$50 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,096 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$403 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$626 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$199 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$74 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,341 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$5,949 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,949 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,759 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$118,980 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$135,637 ………. Total Cash Costs

$35,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$171,437 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 18 BAHIA Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 3 baths

Home size: 1,599 sq ft

($372 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 4,138 sq ft

Year Built: 1988

Days on Market: 15

Listing Updated: 40415

MLS Number: P747732

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Westpark

Tract: Pr

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.

If your client likes sunlight- loves a well lit home- then this is their home. Dozens of windows in this home and house is sunny and bright and cheery. A place to come home to after the end of a day. Upgraded glazed kitchen countertops. Gazebo/patio cover out back to relax. Centrally located near both freeways and near shopping centers. Lushly landscaped for the gardener in you.

Technically, this doesn't deserve the lite-brite graphic, but since the realtor went out of her way to sell sunshine, I thought she still deserved it.

Existing-Home Sales Sink to Lowest Level Ever Recorded

On Monday, I reported that California home sales were down 21.4%. Now the national figures show a similar, alarming drop.

Irvine Home Address … 4511 CHARLEVILLE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $850,000

When I was younger, so much younger than today,

I never needed anybody's help in anyway.

But now these days are gone, I'm not so self assured,

Now I find I've changed my mind, I've opened up the doors.

Help me if you can, I'm feeling down

And I do appreciate you being 'round.

Help me get my feet back on the ground,

Won't you please, please help me?

The Beatles — Help!

Help! Sales are hitting record lows. Months of supply is hitting record highs. Asking prices are starting to come down. Housing market prices are about to double dip.

We have been waiting almost 18 months for the government to allow housing prices to fall to their natural market-clearing levels. First, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and directly purchased mortgage-backed securities, then the federal government began providing tax incentives and credits to further prop up prices, even California got into the tax credit act. And for what? Prices are still going to fall.

July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise

National Association of realtors — Washington, August 24, 2010

Existing-home sales were sharply lower in July following expiration of the home buyer tax credit but home prices continued to gain, according to the National Association of realtors®.

Notice how carefully the NAr spins this disastrous headline. First, they fail to mention that the sales fell to a record low. Second, they suggest that a decline of this magnitude was expected. And third, they add that prices rose even though the rise was tiny and more likely attributable to a changing mix rather than an increase in value. So they downplayed the devastating truth and added some feel-good nonsense to soften the blow. It is laughably obvious, and it should be embarrassing, but this is the NAr.

Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 27.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units in July from a downwardly revised 5.26 million in June, and are 25.5 percent below the 5.14 million-unit level in July 2009.

Sales are at the lowest level since the total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.

How can this be interpreted as any way other than a complete catastrophe? We have more people and more homes than we did in 1995 or 1999, yet we managed to sell far fewer homes. The viability of the housing market is in question. It certainly appears that prices are going to have to come down for transaction volumes to increase. We already have record low interest rates. Doesn't record low sales and record low interest rates suggest that prices are too high?

Lawrence Yun, NAr chief economist, said a soft sales pace likely will continue for a few additional months. “Consumers rationally jumped into the market before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit expired. Since May, after the deadline, contract signings have been notably lower and a pause period for home sales is likely to last through September,” he said. “However, given the rock-bottom mortgage interest rates and historically high housing affordability conditions, the pace of a sales recovery could pick up quickly, provided the economy consistently adds jobs.

Consumers rationally jumped into the market? People were paying $30,000 to $40,000 more for properties to obtain an $8,000 tax credit. Is that rational, or is Yun trying to justify the taxpayer ripoff he supported?

The pace of recovery could pick up quickly? You better buy now, right? Lawrence Yun has mastered the art of bullshit over the last few years. He obviously has no conscience. At least he bothered to add his weasel statement about the economy consistently adding jobs. Since he knows that isn't going to happen, he can always argue that his prediction would have come true if the condition had been met.

“Even with sales pausing for a few months, annual sales are expected to reach 5 million in 2010 because of healthy activity in the first half of the year. To place in perspective, annual sales averaged 4.9 million in the past 20 years, and 4.4 million over the past 30 years,” Yun said.

More spin. First, do you think the activity in the first half of the year truly healthy? The housing market was smoking government tax-credit crack, and buyers purchased in a stupor. Now that the stimulants are gone, the market is crashing to sleep it off. Second, the annual sales rates over the last 20 or 30 years should be lower than today; we had fewer homes! If you adjust the current sales rates for population or housing stock, the rate would be at an all-time low. This is a blatant misuse of statistics.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.56 percent in July from 4.74 percent in June; the rate was 5.22 percent in July 2009. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed was down to 4.42 percent.

Mortgage interest rates are at the lowest level every recorded too.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $182,600 in July, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Distressed home sales are unchanged from June, accounting for 32 percent of transactions in July; they were 31 percent in July 2009.3

“Thanks to the home buyer tax credit, home values have been stable for the past 18 months despite heavy job losses,” Yun said. “Over the short term, high supply in relation to demand clearly favors buyers. However, given that home values are back in line relative to income, and from very low new-home construction, there is not likely to be any measurable change in home prices going forward.”

Volume always precedes price. There almost certainly will be a measurable downward change in home prices going forward. I will agree with Yun that prices will not be going up any time soon. Notice that when the signs are unambiguously bearish, the furthest he will go is to say the prices will remain flat.

Months of Supply hits highest level ever recorded

Total housing inventory at the end of July increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 12.5-month supply4 at the current sales pace, up from an 8.9-month supply in June. Raw unsold inventory is still 12.9 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

While we are looking at housing market records, the months of supply of homes on the market is at an all-time high. We have high unemployment, record low sales, increasing inventory, and record high of months of supply. How do prices hold up with pressures like that?

NAr President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said there are great opportunities now for buyers who weren’t able to take advantage of the tax credit. “Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position,” she said.

She had to slip in the nonsense about prices firming to convince people that it is okay to buy when its likely that prices will be heading lower. Although, to be fair to her, in Arizona where she is, prices have already been crushed, so prices don't have near as much bubble air in them as they do in Orange County.

A parallel NAr practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 38 percent of homes in July, down from 43 percent in June. Investors accounted for 19 percent of sales in July, up from 13 percent in June; the balance were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales rose to 30 percent in July from 24 percent in June.

Single-family home sales dropped 27.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.37 million in July from a pace of 4.62 million in June, and are 25.6 percent below the 4.53 million level in July 2009; they were the lowest since May 1995 when the sales rate was 3.34 million. The median existing single-family home price was $183,400 in July, which is 0.9 percent above a year ago.

Single-family median existing-home prices were higher in 11 out of 19 metropolitan statistical areas reported in July in comparison with July 2009 (the price in one of 20 tracked markets was not available). However, existing single-family home sales fell in all 20 areas from a year ago.

This is a broad-based drop. All real estate may be local, but all local markets are seeing the same dramatic decline in sales.

Existing condominium and co-op sales fell 28.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 460,000 in July from 640,000 in June, and are 24.0 percent below the 605,000-unit level in July 2009. The median existing condo price was $176,800 in July, down 1.7 percent from a year ago.

Condo prices have already rolled over.

… Existing-home sales in the West fell 25.0 percent to an annual level of 870,000 in July and are 23.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $224,800, up 3.3 percent from July 2009.

Sales volumes are very weak.

WTF are they thinking?

Do any of you think house prices have appreciated 11% per year each and every year since 2002? These owners do.

Perhaps in 2003 and 2004 that really did happen. The housing bubble frenzy was ridiculous. However, the rate of appreciation dropped in 2005, and the market peaked in 2006. In 2007 and 2008 prices dropped. They stabilized in 2009 — thanks to our expired stimulants — and now they are about to roll over again… But don't provide these facts to the owners of today's featured property. They think prices are still going to the moon. Perhaps they wanted to give some room to negotiate down to $550,000 where this property might have a chance to sell.

This property was purchased on 3/27/2002 for $337,500. The owners used a $269,900 first mortgage, a $50,000 second mortgage, and a $17,600 down payment. From that seed, they believe they should make $461,500.

They refinanced on 6/12/2003 for $309,000, and they have a credit line that has increased since then, but an increasing credit line is not proof positive that they took out the money. If they did, the final HELOC was for $275,600.

Obviously, at this asking price, it would be an equity sale…

Irvine Home Address … 4511 CHARLEVILLE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $850,000

Home Purchase Price … $337,500

Home Purchase Date …. 3/27/2002

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $461,500

Percent Change ………. 136.7%

Annual Appreciation … 11.0%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$850,000 ………. Asking Price

$170,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.51% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$680,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$166,315 ………. Income Requirement

$3,450 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$737 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$71 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,257 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$823 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$894 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$284 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$106 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,931 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$8,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$8,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,800 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$170,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$193,800 ………. Total Cash Costs

$44,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$238,700 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 4511 CHARLEVILLE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 3 full 1 part baths

Home size: 1,369 sq ft

($621 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1970

Days on Market: 27

Listing Updated: 40388

MLS Number: P745790

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: West Irvine

Tract: Othr

——————————————————————————

Great Area, Good Curb Appeal, Sharp Home, Kitchen Has New Stove, Dishwasher Eating Area,living Room W/fireplace, Family Room, 2 Car Garage With Roll Up Garage Door & Garage Access. home is also located at the end of a cul-de-sac street. All award winning schools are within walking distance.

The pictures and the description read to me like the realtor knows this listing is hopeless and he doesn't want to waste any effort on it. I wouldn't want to either.

Professional Investment Funds Take Over the Foreclosure Flipping Market

Hedge funds are forming to buy auction properties and flip them. Individuals investors are being crowded out by an increasingly professional group.

Irvine Home Address … 52 CAPE COD Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $949,500

That ain't workin' that's the way you do it

Money for nothin' and your chicks for free

Now that ain't workin' that's the way you do it

Lemme tell ya them guys ain't dumb

Dire Straits — Money For Nothing

When the housing crash first began, there were few funds organized to take advantage of it. As the need for more liquidity at the auction site grew, so did the discounts which enticed more bidders. At first, these were mostly wealthy individuals, but now, the hedge funds have moved in to the auction market.

Professional investors move into flipping foreclosed homes

Squeezing out amateurs, private equity funds and wealthy individuals are buying distressed properties at public auctions, refurbishing them and selling them for quick profits.

By Walter Hamilton and Alejandro Lazo

Los Angeles Times

August 20, 2010

Hoping there are big profits to be made in the aftermath of California's housing collapse, professional investors are flocking to the business of buying foreclosed homes at distressed prices.

The investors, primarily private equity funds and groups of wealthy individuals, purchase the homes at public auctions, which are held daily on the steps of local courthouses. They refurbish the properties and try to sell them for quick profits.

Not long ago, the typical home flipper was an amateur tapping a home equity line or savings for an investment property. But professionals have rushed in, partly because of sparse investment opportunities elsewhere.

There are huge differences between the amateur flipper of the bubble and the professional flipper of the bust. Amateurs used leverage to buy resale properties. Professionals use cash to buy auction properties. Amateurs made money because the frenzy drove prices higher. Professionals make money because they buy at a discount and resell at whatever price the market will bear. Amateurs can only make money when the market rallies. Professionals make money in any market where they can reasonably forecast prices 90 days out.

"In crisis there's opportunity," said Rick Hudson, president of investment firm Prosperity Group Real Estate in Irvine. "Right now there's huge opportunity with flipping houses."

Closely watched gauges of professional buying have surged over the last two years.

The number of homes sold at foreclosure auctions statewide increased to 4,336 in April, from 884 in January 2009, according to research firm ForeclosureRadar. It eased back to 3,483 in July as banks offered fewer properties for sale. The auctions are dominated by professional investors who shop with cash (although not usually with actual greenbacks, for practical reasons).

Another measure, the percentage of all homes sold to absentee buyers, paints a similar picture. In the hard-hit Inland Empire, for instance, 30% of all homes sold in April went to absentee buyers — up from 19% at the end of 2008 and the highest level in at least seven years, according to San Diego research firm MDA DataQuick. It was at 28.2% in July.

The binge of professional buying has helped spark a nascent housing recovery in Southern California because investors have cut significantly into the glut of foreclosed properties after the subprime mortgage meltdown.

Professional flippers have not stabilized the market. If anything, the continued activity of flippers adds more supply to the market and keeps appreciation in check. Auction flippers are merely a conduit between the two markets.

The main reason funds are forming to buy these properties is because there is a huge need for liquidity at the auction site. The banks have far too many delinquent borrowers, and there is not enough cash at the auction site to absorb the inventory of these foreclosures.

Banks gauge the liquidity at the site through dropped bids. Not every dropped bid gets purchased by an investor. It is quite common for a lender to drop their bid 20% below resale value and no third party steps forward to purchase the discounted property. When banks see their dropped bids are not being purchased, they don't bring more properties to auction because it will become another REO.

The reason you are seeing articles like this one is because the banks want more liquidity at the auction site. By telling the investment world about this opportunity through articles like this one, lenders hope more funds will form to absorb their massive shadow inventory.

Home sales in the six-county region rose 7.2% in June from May and 2.6% from a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick. In July, overall sales tumbled primarily because of the expiration of federal tax credits, falling 20.6% from the month before in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura counties. But the region's median home price of $295,000 was off only 1.7% from June.

The fragile rebound in the broader market contrasts with the behind-the-scenes scramble at foreclosure auctions.

"There's a tremendous amount of capital that is desperate to just buy anything right now," said Gil Priel, principal of a real estate investment firm in Woodland Hills.

That is nonsense. This guy simply doesn't want other competitors at his auction site.

In some cases, well-financed newcomers are elbowing out smaller investors at auction sales.

"The people who want to go and buy a house to flip, and do one or two, are already exiting the market," said Jan Brzeski, who manages a residential investment fund at Standard Capital in Los Angeles.

That much is true: small investors are being crowded out.

I have watched the big fish at the Orange County auction site bid up small investors to prevent them from getting a good deal. The big fish didn't want these properties, but he reads the poker faces of the small investors and knows he can bid them higher. After one such incident, I heard him quip, "I would have taken the property." True enough, but he didn't want the property, he merely wanted the small investor not to make any money so he wouldn't come back and become a competitor.

The swarm of new investors, however, is making a treacherous and labor-intensive business even tougher.

Investors must do their homework on dozens of homes for every one they buy. Legal and other impediments usually prevent them from going into homes prior to buying them, leaving no way to gauge repair costs. And despite being foreclosed on, the original owners often still live in the houses. That forces buyers to pay them to leave, a dynamic known as cash-for-keys.

The influx of new players is pushing up auction prices and squeezing profits. The average discount at auctions — the difference between a home's sale price and its actual value — is 21.6%, down from 28% in January 2009, according to ForeclosureRadar.

Shall we shed a tear for the auction investor who only makes a 21.6% profit?

Last year, Chase Merritt, a Newport Beach private equity fund management firm, notched strong returns from auction sales, said Chad Horning, its chief executive. Chase Merritt bought a property in Costa Mesa in June 2009 for $315,500 and sold it 21/2 months later for $470,000. It bought a Mission Viejo home for $305,371 and sold it within two months for $375,000.

Chase Merritt launched its first foreclosure fund in May 2009 and has started two more funds since then. But "it's literally gone from a business that's very attractive, even lucrative, 12 to 18 months ago to something that almost doesn't make sense," Horning said.

"It's just like the housing bubble," he said. "It's almost like we're in a bubble at the courthouse steps."

Spoken like a man who doesn't want any more competitors…. Ask any auction buyer, and they will tell you that the margins are poor now compared to some past golden era. The truth is that margins are still pretty fat, and they want to keep them that way.

The scramble was on display recently at an auction at the Norwalk courthouse.

A semicircle of people crowded around auctioneer Elwood Brown. Most were clad in cargo shorts and flip-flops. A few sat in lawn chairs. But their laptops and cellphones, as well as the thousands of dollars' worth of cashier's checks they clutched, marked them as professional investors girding for battle.

Brown took a swig from his oversized water bottle and announced that bidding for a four-bedroom duplex in Hawthorne would start at $179,598.60.

The price shot up within seconds as two men and a woman raised one another's bids in $1,000 increments.

"It's at 229, Daryl," a man in a polo shirt and sunglasses whispered intently into his cellphone. "About to close. Do you want it?"

He increased his offer, but a rival bidder claimed the home a few seconds later for $237,000.

I have watched these guys on the phone at the auction site. I think they are crazy. Don't they know the most they are willing to pay in advance? Why would you be exercising discretion on the bid amount at the auction site? In my opinion, it is a recipe to overpay on emotion.

Competition at the auctions is brutal, said Bruce Norris of Norris Group, a real estate investment firm in Riverside.

Norris unwittingly bought a house that was the site of a gruesome double murder. No one else bid — a rare occurrence that showed others knew the history — leaving Norris with less cash to bid for other houses.

"It's a very lonely place out there," Norris said.

That's only one of many risks in the foreclosure business. People who've lost their homes through foreclosure sometimes vent their anger by smashing walls, knocking over water heaters or ripping out toilets.

"We've literally had people take $20,000 of cabinetry out and feel perfectly justified doing it," Norris said.

Aaron Norris stopped my on August 11, and relayed the following comment: "We’ve had to kick out the same “tenant” from two houses that we’ve purchased. Some will hop from house to house knowing they can draw up fake lease agreements and go for cash for keys."

They have seen everything.

The daily auction ritual begins each morning when banks signal which homes they are likely to dispose of that day. That sets off an early-hours scramble as would-be buyers speed through suburban neighborhoods to investigate the homes.

I have been asked on many occasions why banks don't announce their dropped bids in advance. It seems obvious that they would get more bids and a better recovery if they announced a dropped bid well in advance. I wish I had a good answer for that question. My guess is bureaucratic incompetence, but I honestly don't have a good answer. I do know that it costs them money, and it makes the job of finding deals much more difficult.

On a recent day, Norris steered his sport utility vehicle into the driveway of a 3,300-square-foot McMansion on a corner lot in Moreno Valley. The front lawn was brown and the backyard was littered with garbage. But the windows were intact and there was no visible damage — far better than many foreclosures.

Aiming for an all-important look inside, Norris rang the doorbell and delivered the bad news to the teenage boy who answered the door that the home was scheduled to be sold that day.

"Do you mind if I poke around a little bit to see what kind of condition it's in?" Norris asked, angling his body to get a glimpse of the living room.

Then another car sped up and a rival buyer hurried up the driveway. She studied the house for a few seconds and craned her neck over the wooden fence protecting the backyard.

"This is a dream compared to a lot of them," she said in a satisfied tone as she rushed back to her car.

In the end, no one bought the home. The sale was delayed after the owner filed for bankruptcy protection.

Norris was philosophical, knowing that there were plenty more foreclosures.

"If you miss one," he said, "oh well, tomorrow's another pile."

walter.hamilton@latimes.com alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

Yes, tomorrow's another pile. At our current rate of absorption, it will take another 18 months just to deal with the visible inventory and another 60 months to deal with the shadow inventory. The flipping funds will be busy for a while.

Private Placement Hedge Funds

The funds described in the article above are private placements, also known as hedge funds. These funds provide a mechanism for investors to pool their money to invest in opportunities that may be too large or too risky to purchase on their own. This makes them ideal for trustee sale flipping.

Smaller investors may have $25,000 to $100,000 available to invest, but with houses costing $200,000 or more, auction properties are out of their reach. However, if ten or more investors band together, they have sufficient buying power to be successful at auction. A wealthy individual takes significant risk investing in auction properties on their own. It is difficult to diversify into a large number of properties due to the high capital requirement. Pooling smaller investments into a large fund creates more investment opportunities and diversifies risks into a broader collection of properties.

Private Placements are typically open to what are termed "sophisticated" or "accredited" investors, and usually have some minimum threshold for investment. These aren't like mutual funds that take small contributions and are available to anyone.

Accredited investors are usually one of the following:

Either individually or with a spouse, a net worth (i.e., total assets in excess of total liabilities) currently exceeds $1,000,000;

A natural person who has an individual income in excess of $200,000, or $300,000 jointly with a spouse, in the last two years and reasonably expect an income in excess of $200,000, if an individual, or $300,000 if jointly with a spouse, in this year.

There are trusts and institutions that can also qualify as accredited investors.

Sophisticated investors are defined as:

not an accredited investor possessing such knowledge and experience in financial and business matters so as to be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of, and protecting personal interest in connection with investing in the Interests. The total investment in the Interest does not exceed 20% of the Investor’s net worth at the time of purchase of the Units (excluding personal residence(s), furnishings, and automobiles).

Private placements qualify under an exemption from SEC regulations, and as such, they must maintain fewer than 35 sophisticated investors to maintain their exemption. There is no limit to the number of accredited investors.

Private placements are limited to these special investment classes because they are risky. The SEC doesn't want to see grandma put her life's savings into a risky investment and lose it, so these regulations are designed to bar those who are not financially savvy from participating in them.

Expect to see more of these funds popping up over the next few years as the foreclosure crisis grinds on. There is a huge need for liquidity at the auctions, and hedge funds are just now starting to deliver the capital to where it is needed.

Renovation gone wrong

Today's featured property was the wrong project at the wrong time. The property was purchased near the peak on 3/21/2006 for $699,000. The owner used a $559,200 first mortgage, a $139,800 stand alone second, and a $0 down payment. No risk on his part.

The owner then formed an LLC and deeded the property to it. On 12/28/2006, he found a private party to loan him $1,000,000 to cover the original loan and renovation costs. Presumably the property renovation was complete at that time, but the bird's eye view shows the construction in progress, and based on the auction price, this renovation may have been only partially complete.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 01/19/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 10/14/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

According to ForeclosureRadar, this property sold for $400,727 at auction. If that is accurate, and if the property did not require major work to complete, the flipper is going to make a fortune. Since this auction was back in February, I suspect there was significant renovation work still to be completed.

The current asking price of $949,500 suggests this property is overbuilt for the neighborhood, but at $256/SF, it will likely find a buyer.

If you would like to learn how you can get involved with trustee sales, please contact me at sales@idealhomebrokers.com.

Irvine Home Address … 52 CAPE COD Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $949,500

Home Purchase Price … $491,727

Home Purchase Date …. 2/9/2010

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $400,803

Percent Change ………. 81.5%

Annual Appreciation … 118.3%

Cost of Ownership

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$949,500 ………. Asking Price

$189,900 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.51% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$759,600 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$185,784 ………. Income Requirement

$3,853 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$823 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$79 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,755 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$919 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$998 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$318 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$119 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,274 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$9,495 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$9,495 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$7,596 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$189,900 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$216,486 ………. Total Cash Costs

$50,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$266,586 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 52 CAPE COD Irvine, CA 92620

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Beds: 4

Baths: 3 full 1 part baths

Home size: 3,710 sq ft

($256 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 4,725 sq ft

Year Built: 2006

Days on Market: 42

Listing Updated: 40411

MLS Number: S624928

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Northwood

Tract: Kb

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Fantastic custom home remodeled from the ground up! No Home Owner Association Dues! No Mello Roos! Located in the highly sought after, award winning Northwood High School District! Travertine and granite features accent the architectural beauty of this home. A gourmet kitchen offers new cabinetry with plenty of storage and a island. This open floor plan is perfect for entertaining while enjoying the ambiance of a fire in the fireplace on those cool evenings. This home has two master bedroom suites: a main floor master suite as well as another on the second floor with a private retreat and fireplace for those relaxing times. A walk-in closet and balcony overlooking a lovely, serene greenbelt are just two more of this home s special features! The second floor provides an open area perfect for study, den or media niche. The third floor offers a unique opportunity for the creative. . . a home theatre? a library? a music studio? or maybe a romantic hideaway?