In a recent report Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research said, “More problematic is the inventory of unsold homes. Not only are there still too many unsold housing units in the market, there are a large number of homes in the foreclosure process that will keep the supply of resale housing units at an elevated level.”

Home Address … 42 IDYLLWILD #55 Irvine, CA 92602

Asking Price ……. $399,900

They are projecting the median sales prices will remain flat. In this same report last year, Chapman blew it and projected an increase in the median sales price. The supply problems that caused their forecast to fail in 2011 became the reasoning for a more bearish forecast in 2012. Better late than never.

In my post on January 1, 2011, Predictions for 2011, I made the following predictions:

Basically, my outlook for 2011 is unchanged from 2010. (1) Inventory will go up. (2) Properties selling at or below rental parity will be the norm. (3) Sales volumes will increase. (4) Prices in Irvine will fall 2% to 5% in 2011.

I was right on all four points, and my first point, “Inventory will go up” is precisely what Chapman failed to recognize last year.

Chapman: No home price gain for 2012

December 7th, 2011 — posted by Jeff Collins

Forecasters at Chapman University predict that Orange County home prices will stop falling in 2012. That’s the good news, considering that home prices here have done nothing but that in 2011. But prices won’t go up much either. In fact, they’ll be virtually flat, with no more than a 0.2% gain.

So does this mean they are calling a bottom? Or is this a chickenshit forecast which could be interpreted either way? I think it's overly optimistic to believe prices won't decline further, particularly since we know lenders are increasing their foreclosure. Next year's spring rally will be greeted with an abundance of REOs. The only real question is whether or not the number of REOs pushes prices a lot lower or a little lower.

“Our forecast calls for the median selling price of a single-family unit … (to) remain flat in Orange County in 2012,” the forecast from the school’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research stated. “More problematic is the inventory of unsold homes,” the report said further. “Not only are there still too many unsold housing units in the market, there are a large number of homes in the foreclosure process that will keep the supply of resale housing units at an elevated level.” Of course, forecasting is a tough business. Last year, Chapman forecasters said prices would go up. They went down.

Oops. The problem with running complex econometric models and calling it forecasting is that these models all fail to account for the unusual or uncommon. We have never had a huge nationwide housing bubble before. The forecasters have never modeled what happens when banks foreclose on millions of homes. Of course, the weaknesses of econometric modelling does not excuse forecasters for missing the obvious. The model should be a point of departure from which a good forecaster can adjust the findings based on a subjective interpretation of the unique circumstances of the day. Given the obvious problems with foreclosures and delinquencies, forecasting a drop in prices in 2011 wasn't rocket science.

Among the highlights of this year’s housing forecast:

• The index value of an existing single-family home is expected to rise to 219.5, with 100 equal to 1990’s base value. That’s up 0.2% from 219.1 this year.

• This time last year, Chapman predicted that house prices would be up 3.3% in 2011. The university now project’s that the 2011 price will end the year down 5.1% from 2010 levels.

I predicted prices would be down between 2% and 5% in 2011. I was off by 0.1% as prices overshot my downside range.

• By comparison, California house prices are projected to drop 2.5% next year, following a 5.9% decrease estimated for 2011.
• The decrease in home sales has occurred despite historic high levels of housing affordability. A homebuyer earning the median family income in O.C. would need to spend 28.2% of his or her paycheck on housing at today’s prices. That compares to the need to spend 46.6% of the monthly earnings on housing back in 2006.

A 28.2% DTI is affordable, particularly by OC standards. If anything were to make the market strengthen next year, it is the tremendous affordability brought about by 4% interest rates.

The continued downturn in housing is putting a damper on the overall economic recovery, the forecast said. “The sharp drop in home prices is the main culprit (for slow job growth), leading to a very weak recovery,” it said. “With high inventory of unsold homes and high commercial real estate vacancy rates, construction spending nosedived.” The forecast also predicted that Orange County employers will hire more than 21,000 new workers next year, an improvement over 2011, but it won’t immediately turn the economy around, Register staff writer Mary Ann Milbourn reported. To read the full report on Chapman’s overall economic outlook, CLICK HERE!

Next year will be more of the same. House prices will continue to drop, particularly at the high end, and the economy will be weak, albeit improved over 2011.

This pending sale at $233/SF in Irvine represents a 35% drop from the peak. If 2006 construction starts selling for the low $200/SF, what hope does the rest of Irvine have? How is the Irvine Company supposed to get $400/SF for its new construction? What does that do to the value of older houses?

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 42 IDYLLWILD #55 Irvine, CA 92602

Asking Price ……. $399,900

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1500

$267/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: One Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 2003

Community: Northpark

County: Orange

MLS#: S680830

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 15 days

——————————————————————————

Nice lower level single story home facing greenbelt. Corner lot location in gated Northpark Square. Open layout with laminate flooring, 2 car attached garage, greenbelt views and good size patio off master. Newer construction and appeal. Great opportunity to own in desirable community near Beckman High School.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $399,900

Purchase Price … $562,000

Purchase Date …. 5/26/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($186,094)

Percent Change ………. -33.1%

Annual Appreciation … -5.9%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$399,900 ………. Asking Price

$13,997 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$385,904 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$120,832 ………. Income Requirement

$1,847 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$347 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$100 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$83 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$444 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$301 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,121 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$287 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$554 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$20 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$70 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,370 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$3,999 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$3,999 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$3,859 ………. Interest Points

$13,997 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$25,854 ………. Total Cash Costs

$36,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$62,154 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

The median home price for single-family detached homes, excluding condos and new construction, was down a whopping 9% over the last 12 months. As a sign that prices are still far too high, sales volumes are still more than 20% off their historic norms. The housing market will not bottom until prices get low enough to entice buyers to clean up the mess the banks made. The distressed properties must be taken from those who cannot afford them and resold to buyers who can. Foreclosure and short sale are the most likely paths forward as loan modifications have generally failed miserably. In the meantime, prices continue to fall.

Home Address … 104 MILLBROOK Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $650,000

O.C. median home price slumps 6%

December 9th, 2011, 1:06 pm — posted by Jon Lansner

Highlights of DataQuick’s Orange County homebuying report. For the 22 business days ending November 23 — the latest numbers — Orange County’s real estate market saw …

• Median selling price for all residences of $408,000 — that is off 6.3% vs. a year ago.
• Total Orange County sales of 2,647 residences closed in the latest period — that is off down 0.2% vs. a year ago.
• When broken down by sales volume by price segment, the priciest Orange County ZIPs had sales up 10.5% vs. a year ago. Meanwhile, sales of homes in middle-priced ZIPs were off 4.7% vs. a year ago. As for the bottom third of ZIPs by pricing? Sales off 0.5% vs. a year ago.

The increase in sales rate at high-end zip codes is a direct result of lenders finally moving to sell their REO. This increase in sales volumes is coming off very low sales levels. As banks increase their discounting to find the market, high-end asking prices continue to drop, and sales prices are falling precipitously.

• Note: 9 of 83 Orange County ZIPs had both rising sales and prices in the period. Is your ZIP one of those neighborhoods? To see, CLICK HERE!

Here’s the breakdown of recent activity by key category; included is how the latest results compare to the average monthly sales pace from 1988 through 2010:

Slice	Price	Price vs. year ago	Sales	Sales vs. year ago	Sales vs. ’88-’10 avg.
Houses	$455,000	-9.0%	1,756	+3.2%	-22.2%
Condos	$265,000	-7.0%	738	+3.5%	-14.3%
New	$566,000	-4.1%	153	-35.2%	-70.9%
All O.C.	$408,000	-6.3%	2,647	-0.2%	-27.4%

And more analysis …

• $408,000 median selling price is 37% below June 2007′s peak of $645,000.
• Current price is 9.3% below 2010′s peak (May and July) of $450,000; 0% below end of 2010′s median ($410,000.)
• The most recent median is 10% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — so the median has recouped 14% of the $275,000 price drop from the peak.

It bears repeating that the drop in the median in 2009 was artificially low due to the change in sales mix. Very little was selling at the high end while condo were being cleared out as subprime REO. More accurate indicators of the change in value of individual homes is the Case-Shiller index or the $/SF. Both of those indicators show the market at new lows.

• Compared to cyclical low, single-family house median is 9% higher ($418,250 in January 2009); condo median is 5% higher ($252,000 in March 2009.) Builder prices for new homes are 33% above June 2009′s $424,000 bottom.
• The median selling price of a single-family home is 38% less than their peak pricing (June ’07). Condos sell 44% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 34% below their February ’05 top.
• Single-family homes were 72% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 75% a year ago. From 1988-2010, the average house/condo gap was 57%.

Yet another sign of lower prices to come at the high end. The premium for detached is well above its historic norms. Either condo prices have to go up, or detached house prices need to go down. The latter is the more likely scenario.

• Builder’s new homes sales were 6% of all residences sold in the period vs. 9% a year ago. From 1988-2010, builders did 14% of the Orange County homeselling.

The Irvine Company isn't selling much because their prices are too high. They have targeted the weakest part of the market as the lack of move-up equity and a weak economy make their houses unaffordable.

When will the crash end?

The good news for the market is that lower prices, low interest rates, and firming rents is making home ownership much more attractive to potential buyers. In most markets in Orange County, prices are at or below rental parity. Affordability is at record highs in many locations. Of course, prices are still dropping, and many buyers will sit on the sidelines knowing they will either save money on a future purchase or obtain a better house for the money they spend. Deflation psychology is keeping many of the depleted buyer pool from buying homes. It should. Until the monthly cost of ownership declines enough to entice renters to take the leap, prices will continue to fall.

$314,000 in mortgage equity withdrawal

The owners of today's featured property clearly believed prices would rise forever. Over the course of six years, they refinanced their home seven times pulling out more and more equity. Since this is being sold as a fixer, it is safe to assume they didn't spend much of this money on the house. They ended their journey with a $640,000 Option ARM and a $38,000 HELOC in 2007. Falling prices cut off the Ponzi borrowing. No NOD has been filed on this property, so it's impossible to tell if they are still making payments. If not, this is an example of shadow inventory. Given that it is being marketed as a short sale, I doubt they're making any payments.

The loudest and most polluted house in Oak Creek

This house is located in the extreme southeast corner of Oak Creek adjacent to the interchange at the 5 and Sand Canyon. Having lived in Oak Creek more than 200 yards further away from the freeway, I can attest to how loud it can be. With the extra exhaust from cars accelerating to enter the freeway and the nearby power lines, this isn't my first choice for an Irvine home. It can be yours for only $700,000. I think I will pass.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 104 MILLBROOK Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $650,000

Beds: 4

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2079

$313/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Other

Year Built: 2001

Community: Oak Creek

County: Orange

MLS#: S680823

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 14 days

——————————————————————————

End of Cul de Sac single family detached home in Oak Creek. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, 2 car attached garage, 2 story home with upgrades. L shaped backyard with BBQ island. Gated community of Kelsey Lane. Upstairs laundry. Kitchen has granite counters and island. Property has unfinished repairs and needs some work. This is a short sale.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $650,000

Purchase Price … $364,500

Purchase Date …. 4/13/2001

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $246,500

Percent Change ………. 67.6%

Annual Appreciation … 5.4%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$650,000 ………. Asking Price

$130,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$520,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$135,496 ………. Income Requirement

$2,489 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$563 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$233 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$135 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$80 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,500 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$403 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$747 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$182 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$101 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,634 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,200 ………. Interest Points

$130,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$148,200 ………. Total Cash Costs

$40,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$188,500 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

The OC Housing News

Irvine Renter is writing his entertaining and insightful market analysis at a new website, OC Housing News.

After nearly five years of writing for the Irvine Housing Blog, I feel it is time to expand my gaze beyond Irvine to the rest of Orange County. The Irvine housing market does not exist in a vacuum. Properties in nearby communities compete with Irvine for the attention of buyers. To really understand any housing market, we need to review properties and market conditions in surrounding communities. Therefore, the new blog will examine interesting properties in all of Orange County, California.

Add to your bookmarks

If you like my writing, take a moment to go to ochousingnews.com and add it to your bookmarks. The entertaining and insightful market analysis you have come to expect from me can be found there from now on.

Blog Posts

My usual posts on national, state, and local housing issues have each been categorized as “featured.” One of the first things you will notice about the blog is a post box which rotates through the last twelve featured posts. If you are not a daily reader, and you want to see what interesting topics I have been writing about, this new feature will allow you to quickly browse headlines and excerpts.

In addition to my daily news and analysis posts, I provide a second post on a specific property of interest somewhere in Orange County. The post has a sentence or two on why it caught my eye, then it displays the property data and my proprietary cost of ownership analysis. For those who are primarily interested in properties, these new posts should prove interesting. If you come across a property you would like me to profile, email me at larry@ochousingnews.com.

If you scroll down the page, you will see the last several posts on the ochousingnews.com. The featured posts show cartoons and an excerpt, and property posts display the house, and my reason for profiling the property.

Blog Tour

I want to take a moment to tell you about the new features and information you can find on the ochousingnews.com.

Purple Navigation

As I mentioned in the introduction, the focus of my attention has broadened to the entire Orange County housing market. The purple navigation tabs below the header logo will limit the display of posts to only those about that area or topic. So if you are only interested in what's happening in Newport Beach, clicking on that navigation tab will show you only the posts I have done on Newport Beach.

Main Navigation

Above the header is the main site navigation. This will lead you to features and services not related to the blog posts.

MLS Listings

You can browse the listings from any city or zip code in Orange County as well as the various villages of Irvine. By default, the listings will be displayed by time on the market with the newest being listed first. If you want to quickly see what has just hit the market in a particular area, this is a handy feature. These same queries by city and Irvine village can be found in the right sidebar as well.

MLS Map Search

If you prefer to set detailed parameters to facilitate your search for a particular home, the MLS map search is the best method. You can perform as many searches as you like, and if you register with the system, you can save your searches and receive email updates.

Foreclosure Deals

If you want to find upcoming foreclosure properties to find the best deals in the current market, we have a special search page just for that.

Investment Rentals

As most of you know, I run a fund buying rental properties in Las Vegas to sell to Orange County cashflow investors. My available inventory can be found on the Investment rental tab.

Free Services

As part of my commitment to benefit the community, I provide a number of free services. These include a monthly market newsletter, live presentations, property value reports, an affordability calculator, and a library of educational writings.

Market Newsletter

Each month, I compile the data on real estate transactions in Orange County and publish a newsletter containing my findings. I sort through the information to provide the key data I believe is important to making a buying decision. If you sign up, you will receive this free report by email each month.

Live Presentations

Shevy Akason and I provide a number of free live presentations. We provide first-time homebuyer training, an OC housing market update, a Las Vegas investment property seminar twice monthly, and a short sale and REO workshop. We also put on guest presentations from time to time. All presentations are free of charge.

Value Reports

I developed a proprietary report detailing the value and the cost of ownership. We can prepare this report for any property in the MLS coverage area at your request. It provides both resale and rental comps, our estimation of current value and fundamental value, and a detailed breakdown of the monthly cost of ownership.

Affordability Calculator

If you want to determine what you can really afford and how much a property will cost both up-front and on an ongoing basis, our affordability calculator is designed to tell you. It provides the same cost of ownership breakdown as our value reports, and it allows you to run scenarios and explore options on your own.

Education Library

Over the course of nearly five years of writing for the Irvine Housing Blog, I wrote a number of educational pieces. These writings have been collected and organized by topic into our education library. These same links can be found at the bottom of the sidebar on any blog page.

Finest Agents

I believe I am fortunate to work with Shevy Akason and his team. I believe them to be among the finest agents in Orange County. Our many testimonials from happy clients attests to his skills. If you don't know Shevy, I recommend you come to one of our live presentations and see for yourself what separates him from other agents.

About Me

No blog would be complete without a biography of the blogger.

Sidebar elements

Many of the sidebar elements are shortcuts to the features and services described above. In addition to that, I have a link to my book, The Great Housing Bubble, post tags, recent “thoughtful remarks,” a blogroll of frequently updated blogs I like, and a random collection of my cartoons at the bottom of the page.

Thank you for reading

I want to thank you for checking out OC Housing News and for your years of readership here at the Irvine Housing Blog. As with anything I do, this new site is a work in progress subject to constant and consistent improvement. I appreciate any constructive suggestions you might have to make OC Housing News a better blog and website.

Sincerely,

Larry Roberts (Irvine Renter)

P.S. I will still be known by my blog name Irvine Renter.

12/10 NOTE: Had to do a DB restore to yesterday morning so we've lost all comments since then. -zovall

The Mortgage Bankers Association released a report comparing strategic default to a virus that is spreading across the land.

Home Address … 16 FAITH Irvine, CA 92612

Asking Price ……. $1,599,000

Virus alert!

Delete immediately before someone gets hurt!

Forward this message on to everybody

Soon, very soon, it will make all the paint peel off your walls

WEIRD AL YANKOVIC – VIRUS ALERT

One of the great advances which has come from the internet is the quick dissemination of useful information. In short, secrets don't remain secret very long.

Lenders don't want borrowers to know that their friends and neighbors have stopped paying their mortgages, and their lives have improved. Lenders want borrowers to remain in the dark and fall victim to old beliefs and habits which prompt them to keep paying even when it is not in their best interest to do so.

Unfortunately, the quick spread of information on the internet is getting out the word, and “mavens” like myself are not helping lenders out. Too bad for lenders.

What disease and strategic default on mortgages have in common

November 17, 2011 — Jamie Smith Hopkins

A new report conducted for a mortgage-industry trade group likens “strategic default” — walking away from a mortgage you can afford to pay because you owe more than your house is worth — to a contagious disease.

It's an interesting analogy I imagine lenders embrace. To them it is disease, but to borrowers it is medicine for their debt disease. It depends on your point of view, doesn't it?

It's not just the idea that strategic defaulters spawn more strategic defaulters. The report's authors focus much of their attention on real estate experts — “mavens” — who advocate such a move and sway underwater homeowners to their way of thinking.

“Much the same way as a disease spreads throughout a population, so too do decisions to 'strategically' default,” the report concludes, adding: “Mavens are more contagious than non-Mavens because people place greater trust in their opinions. … In fragile markets, advice by influential Mavens can result in a flood of strategic defaults, causing a contagious downward spiral of home prices and potentially a market collapse.”

I had no idea I was so powerful. I have certainly been advocating strategic default for many reasons, not the least of which is that it's very often the best thing for the families. The fact that it punishes the banks who created this mess is a bonus.

I have a hard time believing any voice, no matter how influential could really impact a housing market. People are going to do what they are going to do irrespective of what supposed experts say.

The report was sponsored for the Mortgage Bankers Association's Research Institute for Housing America. Last year, the bankers association's then-CEO said would-be strategic defaulters should think about the damage they would do to their neighbors' property values and their own reputations. “What about the message they will send to their family and their kids and their friends?” John Courson told The Wall Street Journal at the end of 2009.

Let't think about that one. What message does strategic default send to a family, kids and friends? It says I am strong enough to admit I made a mistake and change course. It says I value my families financial future more than the profits of a lender.

That just before the Mortgage Bankers Association sold its headquarters building for millions less than its 2007 purchase price — and millions less than its financing, too. The WSJ reported at the time that the association would not disclose the terms it negotiated with its lenders, but sources thought the group would be paying back only part of the $30 million that the sale price hadn't covered. Irony lovers had a field day.

Yes, the mortgage bankers themselves strategically defaulted while simultaneously decrying their borrowers from doing the same. I guess when it is a business decision, the agreements signed in the past go out the window. What message does that say to the families, children and friends of the bankers?

People have debated the ethics and bottom-line considerations of walking away for several years now. The ethics argument boils down to whether paying your debts is a moral obligation or a contractual one (i.e. “I pay the mortgage or I give you back the house, so here's the house, buddy”). On the financial side, there's the chance to get out from under a house that might never be worth what you paid for it vs. the effect on credit scores, the ability to get security clearances and the possibility of future dunning attempts.

Some states are non-recourse, meaning that mortgage holders can't come after you for the difference between what you owe and what they can sell the house for. Others — including Maryland — allow the debt collectors to come calling.

Last year I wrote about a strategic defaulter who was planning to file for bankruptcy protection after he walked away from his Baltimore home.

So, folks: What do you think of strategic default nowadays? Do you think the “disease” theory is apt?

My views on strategic default are clear:

Has Turtle Rock continued to appreciate?

Turtle Rock is a special community. It is probably my favorite in Irvine. It has large lots, nice homes, a great trail system, and many homes have nice views. There is much to like about the community. But is it immune to the effects of the collapsing housing bubble?

As prices crumble all around Turtle Rock, the substitution effect starts to kick in. Yes, people may prefer Turtle Rock, but if a similar property can be found for much less nearby, many people will not pay an exaggerated premium. The Turtle Rock owners will either have to lower price or simply not sell their homes.

Today's featured property is a nice home, but it's not as nice as this one:

$1,650,000 15 SKYCREST Sold on Nov 29, 2011

0.96 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 3,235 Sq. Ft.

And is it $500,000 better than this one?

$1,062,625 31 JASPER

0.06 miles 4 bd / 4 ba 3,109 Sq. Ft.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 16 FAITH Irvine, CA 92612

Asking Price ……. $1,599,000

Beds: 5

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 3200

$500/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Other

View: Hills, Mountain

Year Built: 1995

Community: Turtle Rock

County: Orange

MLS#: S681346

Source: CRMLS

On Redfin: 1 day

——————————————————————————

Magnificent, highly upgraded executive home located in the exclusive gated community of Concordia. A professionally designed lush front yard welcomes you to gorgeous interior. Spiral staircase greets you as you enter the foyer. Vaulted ceiling. Two Greek Columns lead you into the formal dining room. Breakfast area overlooks a beautiful landscaped backyard with built-in BBQ and fountain. Family room comes with fireplace and built-in cabinets. Fully upgraded Gourmet Kitchen with granite countertops and center island. Walk in pantry, new stainless steel appliances. Other upgrades include crown molding, recess lights, plantation shutters and new gorgeous slates at front & backyard. 5 bedrooms up & 1 office/bath down. Master suite includes a large retreat with a two sided fireplace. NO MELLO ROOS, LOW TAX. Walking distance to the famous Uni High School, Turtle Rock Elementary, Preschool and Concordia University. Minutes away from UCI, OC Airport and Newport Beach. This home is a must see to appreciate!

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $1,599,000

Purchase Price … $825,000

Purchase Date …. 12/22/2000

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $678,060

Percent Change ………. 82.2%

Annual Appreciation … 6.1%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$1,599,000 ………. Asking Price

$319,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$1,279,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$312,030 ………. Income Requirement

$6,122 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$1386 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$333 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$220 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$8,061 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1326 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1837 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$448 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$220 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$5,566 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$15,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$15,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$12,792 ………. Interest Points

$319,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$364,572 ………. Total Cash Costs

$85,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$449,872 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Some lenders may be increasing the rate of foreclosures, but overall, the time it's taking banks to foreclose is increasing. The foreclosure time now stands at a record 631 days.

Home Address … 1114 SCHOLARSHIP Irvine, CA 92612

Asking Price ……. $243,000

It's forever, this time I know

and there's no doubt in my mind

Forever, until my life is thru,

house I'll be livin' in you forever

Kiss — Forever

Foreclosures don't take forever, but they certainly do take a very long time. Foreclosure used to be a deterrent to prevent borrowers from becoming delinquent on their loans. Now that the process takes so long, the prospect of two years of free housing is actually becoming an inducement for strategic default.

Average Foreclosure Time Sets New Record

Published: Thursday, 1 Dec 2011 — 9:30 AM ET

By: Diana Olick

CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Foreclosures are setting new records again, this time not in their overall numbers, but in the time it is taking for all of these properties to be processed through the legal system. The average loan in foreclosure has now been delinquent a record 631 days, according to a new report from Florida-based Lender Processing Services.

631 days. That is quickly approaching two years. The process is supposed to take about six months, not two years. How many people have been induced to strategically default because the know they can get two years of free housing? Why would anyone struggle if they know the rewards for not paying?

The after effects of the so-called “robo-signing” foreclosure paperwork scandal, now more than a year old, continue to plague states which require these cases to go before a judge.

The differences in processing times are blatant when you compare judicial versus non-judicial states. Non-judicial state foreclosures inventories are less than half those of judicial states, and foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states are four to five times that of judicial states.

Judges are starting to ramp up the process.

That's good to hear. If the paperwork is in order, the process should go forward unimpeded.

Bank repossessions actually surged in October in many judicial states, up 48 percent in New Jersey and up 73 percent in Indiana month-to-month, according to RealtyTrac. Still the backlog is still enormous. Overall foreclosure inventory is at an all-time high, 4.29 percent of all active loans, according to LPS.

“The discrepancy will go on in perpetuity, as there always has been a difference between judicial and non-judicial timelines,” said Kyle Lundstedt, managing director of LPS Applied Analytics. “Even prior to the worst of the crisis, loans were 4-5 months more delinquent in judicial states at time of foreclosure sale. The number today is more like 8 months, but will return to the 4-5 month difference depending on when and how fast foreclosure sales occur.

A record-high inventory of foreclosures in process does not bode well for the near future of the housing recovery. All those distressed properties will sell at a deep discount, likely bringing down the prices of surrounding homes.

Remember how real estate bulls used to claim the shadow inventory predictions were doom and gloom? Well, we are about to find out because this inventory is working its way out of the shadows and on to the MLS. All the predictions of the housing bears will come true.

They will also add to already historically high existing home inventories, while demand is still weak. While there is considerable investor demand for distressed properties, new foreclosures are still outnumbering foreclosure sales by over 3:1. In addition to the “robo-signing” delays, we are now beginning to see the effects of ineffective loan modifications.

Loan modifications were always a delaying tactic. Banks kicked the can down the road, but now we are back at the can again. Will banks try to kick it again and permit more squatting?

Repeat foreclosures made up nearly 45 percent of new foreclosures in October. Of the 2.1 million modifications since the start of 2008 more than 10 percent were in foreclosure with another 27.4 percent delinquent 30 or more days, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

I don't see how loan modification programs can be viewed as anything other than a complete and total failure.

Lundstedt said foreclosure moratoria, process/documentation reviews, evaluation for loss mitigation and bankruptcies make up the rest of the repeat foreclosures.

As the mortgage market continues to work through the backlog of troubled loans, looking forward, loans originated in 2010 and 2011 are now the best performers on record, thanks to tighter credit requirements.

Of course that begs the question: Did the pendulum swing farther than necessary to the conservative side? Is underwriting now unnecessarily restrictive?

No, it hasn't. Loan standards haven't gotten strict enough until new loans stop going bad. Loan standards are designed to weed out those people who will default and fail to pay back their loans. Until loan standards accomplish their primary function, they have not become strict enough.

45% off the peak and more to go

Sometimes when I see what people paid at the peak, it really takes my breath away. This tiny one bedroom one bath condo sold for $417,000 at a time of 6.5% interest rates. The cost of ownership would have been nearly $3,500 per month for a shoebox.

Even at today's prices, this unit still isn't a bargain. The $1,480 cost of ownership is still above rental parity, and condos like this one should carry a significant discount to rental parity to attract an owner. Why else would you live here if not to save significantly over rent? To capture that rapid appreciation, right? Well, we all know that isn't going to happen.

I expect prices on these units to fall further. Perhaps in the sub $200,000 range, they may find some willing owners, assuming interest rates stay near 4%.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 1114 SCHOLARSHIP Irvine, CA 92612

Asking Price ……. $243,000

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 725

$335/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: One Level, Other

Year Built: 2006

Community: Airport Area

County: Orange

MLS#: P804669

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 2 days

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Subject is a lower unit condominium featuring new interior paint, new carpet, granite counters and a private patio. HOA offers a community pool, spa, fitness center, meeting rooms, clubhouse and media room. Located near the 405 Freeway and John Wayne Airport.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $243,000

Purchase Price … $417,000

Purchase Date …. 7/17/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($188,580)

Percent Change ………. -45.2%

Annual Appreciation … -9.7%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$243,000 ………. Asking Price

$8,505 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$234,495 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$74,675 ………. Income Requirement

$1,122 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$211 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$51 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$270 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$276 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

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$1,929 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$174 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$337 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$12 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$50 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

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$1,480 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$2,430 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$2,430 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$2,345 ………. Interest Points

$8,505 ………. Down Payment

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$15,710 ………. Total Cash Costs

$22,600 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$38,310 ………. Total Savings Needed

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