Inventory: 214 homes.

Two hundred seems to be the new normal for the Truman World. We go up a few properties, down a few properties, but for the past two months, we have been around that number. Realtors are talking about multiple offers, listings flying off the shelves, and very soon they will say “Buy now or you will be priced out forever” without even feeling guilty about it. Average list prices are trending higher with each passing month, and as of now we are entering a seller’s market. But before we declare a mini bubble in Irvine due to low inventory, let’s see if inventory is really as low as the numbers we see. I am not talking shadow inventory from the foreclosures. New homes. Last week, I came across an article on OC Register about new home sales by The Irvine Company. According to the article, 1346 new homes were sold in 2012. That’s right, more than a thousand homes. 774 homes were sold in 2011.

1346 New Homes + 600 Regular Sales = Around 1946 homes were on the market in January, 2012.

774 New Homes + 710 Regular Sales = Around 1484 homes were on the market in January 2011.

What do you think? Will the influx of more new homes bring the market down? We have five thousand homes approved near the El Toro-Great Park neighborhood within the next ten years.

402 Rockefeller #210, Irvine CA 92612

This is one of the elite airport area condominiums built last year. It comes with concierge service.

Listing Price: $751,000

Beds/ Baths: 2 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathrooms

Area: 1841 SF

Year Built: 2011

Property Type: Condominium

Builder Tract Name: Lennox

Builder Tract Code: CPWLX

Monthly Mortgage: $2638

HOA Dues: $719

Property Tax: $530

Mello Roos: $93

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $ 3980

This is not the only property on the market in this tract. Here is the list of other listed properties:

402 South Rockefeller #102 $378/SF

402 South Rockefeller #105 $397/SF

402 South Rockefeller #108 $346/SF

402 South Rockefeller #109 $443/SF

402 South Rockefeller #201 $401/SF

402 South Rockefeller #204 $366/SF

402 South Rockefeller #209 $444/SF

402 South Rockefeller #205 $359/SF

402 Rockefeller #113 $363/SF

402 Rockefeller #116 $357/SF

402 Rockefeller #210 $408/SF

402 Rockefeller #212 $371/SF

402 Rockefeller #214 $337/SF

402 Rockefeller #215 $376/SF

Does that feel like an influx of inventory in the airport area?

This property has been on the market for more than one hundred days and so have a few similar ones. If the real inventory is around two hundred, and every buyer is desperate, and things are flying off the shelves, why haven’t the airport condos flown yet? Agreed there is a huge price tag for HOA Dues, but I am sure the Company did demographics and requirements study before proposing the community, and City of Irvine did its own study and projections before approving it.

Comment below, or share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.

Turtle Rock Townhouse Magnet

5031 Paseo Segovia $834,300

The Sunday open house traffic was brisk over the holiday weekend as this Turtle Rock single family home opened its doors and a steady stream of visitors trooped through. Just up the hill from Campus Drive off of Turtle Rock Drive, the home is vacant and back on the market.

The home was listed in September, taken off the market with an October offer, and returned to the market in December.

Significant Numbers: Built in 1973, the home is 2028 sq. ft., on a 3,744 sq. ft. lot. The $/sq. ft. is $379. HOA dues are $150. There is no Mello Roos tax and this is a standard sale. This 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath, two level contemporary home has been remodeled throughout, but bathrooms appear to be original.

CloseUp: Situated across from the greenbelt, on a secluded street, a spacious courtyard leads into a large living room with shutters, gleaming wood laminate floors, and sliding glass doors and windows overlooking greenery. There is an enclosed patio and a small backyard.

The overall impression is light, bright and ready for a new imprint. It’s easy to picture this home operating as a comfortable entertainment/family base. It could be a fresh canvas for the right buyer, an appealing property in a prime spot in Turtle Rock.

The fireplace in the living room has a custom wood mantel and there is another stacked stone fireplace in the family room. Throughout the home there are vaulted and scraped ceilings, custom paint, custom baseboards, and crown moldings.

The kitchen has been remodeled with custom tile countertops and backsplash, upgraded appliances and a garden/bay window.

There is a main floor bedroom and the second floor has three good sized bedrooms with two baths.

The home also has a newer tile roof and copper plumbing.

More Specifics:

Bedrooms, 4

Baths, 2.5

Forced air, central air

1 common wall attached

Association pool and spa

Double garage, 2 parking spaces

Irvine Unified School System

What should be considered? The home size, location, age and upgrades will all come up for evaluation. With four bedrooms, including one downstairs, two fireplaces, and ample square footage in Turtle Rock, buyers may compare this property with others that are similar in Irvine. The schools, recreational options and overall setting should be competitive.

Who will be the next owner? A family looking for good schools in Turtle Rock will be attracted to this home. A family needing space, and a downstairs bedroom, might also choose this home. Professionals who are working in Irvine or involved with UCI will appreciate the location.

Recent listings: 7 Windsor, $835,000; 26 Summerwind, $739,900.

Recent sales: 4912 Basswood sold for $799,000 in November and 5412 Sierra Baja sold for $959,000 in November.

Discuss on Talk Irvine: http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3453.0.html

Inventory on January 5, 2013: 181.

Inventory has dropped 8.6% on month to month basis.

Median List Price/ SF has increased 1.4% on month to month basis.

In an article, Orange County Register says “Last year, the (Irvine Pacific) company sold 1,436 new homes, nearly twice what it sold in 2011 when it ranked fourth in the nation for master planned community home sales according to an annual survey from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Ten neighborhoods and two entire villages sold out. And what's happened to every neighborhood they started selling in January 2010? Sold out, too”.

But, two weeks ago Robert Shiller said, “A lot of people seem to think that if the market turns around, that means more of the same, meaning another big boom. I don't think that's in the cards. We might see home prices go up a little bit, you know, a little bit above inflation, maybe. Not likely that we'll see a real boom.”

Shiller and Roubini have always given a pessimistic projection of the economy. But, in my opinion, when irrational exuberance begins, it’s good to keep ourselves educated of things to come. We have not entered a bubble phase but with unemployment for Orange County at 7.0%, Dow Jones at 13,435, low inventory and buyer desperation, Irvine can expect a mini bubble this year.

What are your Real Estate plans for the year? Buying or selling?

The featured property today is one of the “Wisteria” detached condominiums of West Irvine. In a neighborhood where single family homes were selling in the high $500s last year, we have a detached condominium listed for $619,000. Given the market conditions, it might sell quickly also, at the listing price or even more. There are already talks about how all cash offers are pushing others away from the market. Remember those fairy tales where princes came from a land far away? I can imagine Realtors telling the story of the client coming from land far away with briefcases filled with dollars to make an all cash offer!

95 Waterman #155, Irvine CA 92602

Beds/ Baths: 4 Beds/ 2.75 Bath

Area: 1730 SF

Year Built: 2001

Builder Tract Name: Wisteria

Builder Tract Code: WIST

Builder’s Name: California Pacific

Builder’s Model Code: 4

Listing Price: $619,000

HOA Dues: $174 Monthly

Property tax @ 1.0593: $6557 Annually

Mello Roos: $1278 Annually

Monthly Property Tax+ Mello Roos: $652

Monthly Mortgage: $2194

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $3,020

Here is how Wisteria homes have performed in the past two years:

2011:

85 Avondale $344/SF

49 Avondale $366/SF

80 Glen Arbor $305/SF

66 Glen Arbor $331/SF

46 Congress Pl $321/SF

68 Glen Arbor $342/SF

2012:

86 Deermont $323/SF

73 Glen Arbor $350/SF

105 Waterman $361/SF

84 Deermont $350/SF

111 Waterman $344/SF

In the past two years, the Wisteria homes have steadily marched from $300/SF to $350/SF, and now consolidating that position further with the listed property at $358/SF.

Property History:

Oct 2001: $332,000 ($191/SF)

April 2004: $660,000 ($381/SF)

What would you do?

Join the frenzy and buy before you are priced out forever?

Hold off, because you can spot a bubble, and a recession?

Comment below, or discuss at Talk Irvine.