Market value of a property is subject to what a buyer is willing to pay the seller given the current local, regional and national market conditions. Irvine inventory is reaching a new low. Last April there were 807 properties for sale. Six months ago there were 780. A month ago 534. Today, we have 507 properties for sale in Irvine according to the Irvine Housing Blog chart. (506 according to www.movoto.com, 258 Single Family Residences and 248 Condominiums). Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index has been quoted saying “the market has a chance of rebounding even though the downward momentum in the real estate market has accelerated in the past five years”.

With the low inventory, and a low unemployment rate (6.0% in Irvine), is it time for Irvine home prices to rebound? Will the summer of 2012 become the turning point in the Irvine real estate market?

While we can’t predict what future holds, but here is a look at the inventory and corresponding data in the past five years.

	Inventory	Median Sale price	Sale Price/SF	Sold for loss
July 2007	1279	$714,000	$413/SF	7.62%
Dec 2009	448	$574,000	$344/SF	32.12%
June 2011	891	$548,000	$345/SF	36.42%
February 2012	568, and slid to 507 on April 15.	$495,000	$311/SF	43.52%

If that was the data for the City of Irvine, let’s see what data shows for specific villages of Irvine. The house I profile today was built in 2006, the so called peak of the housing market. The property I compare it with was built in the same village, has the same floor plan, same corner location, same school district and shopping district.

One of them is 59 Midnight Sky, and the other is 28 Rising Sun.

The Village of Woodbury has 26 homes for sale, and the inventory is down 39.7% on a year-on-year basis, and down 12.5% on a month-to-month basis. But the median price/SF is down to $289/SF and the median sold price is down to $678,000.

28 Rising Sun was sold for $986,500 on June 26, 2006.

59 Midnight Sky was sold for $875,000 on August 25, 2006.

59 Midnight Sky was listed on 26 June, 2011 for $839,000.

It was sold for $722,500 on November 25, 2011.

28 Rising Sun was listed at $828,888 on November 11, 2011.

MLS Listing:

28 Rising Sun, Irvine CA 92620

Listing Price	$828,888
Beds/ bath	3 Beds/ 2.5 Bath
Area	1949 SF
Price/ SF	$425/ SF
Levels	2
Year Built	2006
Floor Plan	Builders Tract Name: Portisol Builders Tract Code: WDPT Builders Model Code: 2
Type of Sale	Standard
Elementary School	Woodbury Elementary School
Middle School	Sierra Vista Middle School
High School	Irvine High School
Down payment	$165,778
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 4.125%	$3,166
Home Owner’s Dues	$105
Mello-Roos	$4597 Annually $383 Monthly
Property Tax (1.0595%)	$8782 Annually $732 Monthly
Fixed Cost of owning	$4386 Monthly

Floor Plan:

The main door opens into an entry room/ foyer. On the left is the staircase, and the powder room. One the right is the coat closet. The hallway from the entry room leads to the Great Room. An arch visually divides the living space and the dining space. The right wall of the dining space has a work desk, pantry, oven and refrigerator. The back wall has an L-shaped kitchen counter with a central island. Fortunately the dishwasher is on the far end of the counter making it easy to cook/ prep. Some of the newer houses have a kitchen layout where you can use only one appliance at a time. Coming back to the Portisol house, the garage opens into the kitchen. Upstairs, there is a small lobby to host a small home office, or a homework station. The Master bedroom is on the left with ample windows. There are two walk-in closets for the Master suite. One is big, and one is small. Talk about gender discrimination! I am sure the Architect has a simpler reason. The sinks, the tub, the laundry rooms were laid out to meet the specific size requirements first, and whatever space remained between that and the Master bedroom became the closets. YAY for laundry room upstairs! Also, it is housed within the cluster of bathroom and closet walls making it easy to relax in any of the bedrooms when washing a load of jeans. The secondary bedrooms are of a decent size. I like the flow of the floor plan. It is perfect for a family with school age children.

Here is the historical data of the Portisol home price/SF since they were built in 2006.

Year Sold	Highest Price/ SF	Lowest Price/SF
2006	$477	$360
2007	$439	$413
2008	$425	$345
2009	$468	$324
2010	$446	$344
2011	$398	$332

59 Midnight Sky sold at $370/SF.

28 Rising Sun is listed at $425/SF.

Here is more specific data. These are the Portisol Model 2 houses (1949 SF) sold since 2008:

2011: 59 Midnight Sky at $722,500

2010: 80 Loganberry at $870,000

62 Rising Sun at $790,000

2009: 59 Midnight Sky at $710,000

2008: 50 Rising Sun at $799,231

62 Rising Sun at $830,000

74 Loganberry at $770,000

There have been no changes in the list price of 28 Rising Sun after listing. It is an unusual move given the market conditions and the comparable property sale. A quick look at the pictures on the MLS listing does not reveal any upgrades amounting to $106,388- the price difference between the list price and the sold price of the comparable property.

I am hoping the ex-model status and low inventory will account for the premium! Also, as the historical data reveals, buyers have paid $870,000 in 2010 for the same model. End of the day it comes to what a buyer has to offer. As an Irvine home owner, I would love for things to get better and my neighbors to sell their homes for a profit. I hope the sun rises on the better housing market!

Discuss below or on Talk Irvine.

Today we will compare two homes in the guard gated Northpark community of Irvine. Both the houses have the same floor plan, and same square feet area. But one of them is priced $60,000 more than the other. When you see the MLS pictures of the houses, there isn’t much difference between both in terms of interior upgrades. Both are standard sales. Northpark has about 36 homes for sale now, 12 sold this year.

For the 92602 zip code, inventory is down 27.6% on a year-t0-year basis.

11 homes sold in February. Median sold price has climbed 11.1% to $450,000.

	77 Modesto #94 Irvine, CA 92602	43 Meadow Vly Irvine, CA 92602
Listing Price	$648,800	$588,800
Beds/ bath	3 Beds/ 2.5 Baths	3 Beds/ 2.5 Baths
Area	1650	1650
Price/ SF	$393	$357
Levels	2	2
Year Built	2001	2001
Floor Plan	Tract Name: San Simeon Tract Code: SANS Model Code: 3
Type of Sale	Standard Sale	Standard Sale
Elementary School	Hicks Canyon Elementary (K-5) Address: 3817 Viewpark, Irvine CA 92602 API rank 10, and API Score of 942 for 2011. For more information: http://hickscanyon.org/
Middle School	Orchard Hills (Middle School 5-7 for 2011, K-8 planned) Address: 11555 Culver Dr, Irvine CA 92602 API rank not available (new school), API score of 952 for 2011. For more information: http://ohhawks.org
High School	Arnold Beckman High School (9-12) Address: 3588 Bryan Ave, Irvine CA 92602 API rank 10, API score of 866 for 2011. For more information: http://beckman.tustin.k12.ca.us/ SAT Scores for 2011: Critical Reading 548 Math 588 Writing 571
Down payment	$129,760	$117,760
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 4.125%	$2,516	$2283
Home Owner’s Dues	$155+$116 = $271 Monthly	$155+$116 = $271 Monthly
Mello-Roos	$2211 Annually $185 Monthly	$2211 Annually $185 Monthly
Property Tax (1.0595%)	$6874 Annually $573 Monthly	$6238 Annually $520 Monthly
Fixed Monthly Cost of owning	$3545	$3259

About the Floor-plan:

This is a two level plan. The living areas are downstairs, and the three bedrooms are upstairs. The entry door opens into a mini foyer, and you can access the den/family room on one side, and the great room on another. There is a half bathroom downstairs. Washer and Dryer are in the garage. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, and two bathrooms. The secondary bedrooms are as big as the Master bedrooms in the new houses of Stonegate. It is a nice floor plan for a family with young kids. Except for the laundry unit in the garage, I like the overall floor plan.

The property is classified as a detached condominium. That means none of the walls of the structure are shared with the neighbors.

A little history of the same floor plan over the past six years…

2006:

91 Talmadge $506/SF

39 Modesto $493/SF

63 Modesto $477/SF

62 Meadow Valley $474/SF

73 Arcata $457/SF

83 Modesto $434/SF

2007:

44 Arcata $477

51 Meadow Valley $459/SF

55 Meadow Valley $453/SF

87 Talmadge $447/SF

49 Modesto $437/SF

97 Talmadge $425/SF

68 Arcata $420/SF

60 Meadow Valley $416/SF

78 Arcata $406/SF

43 Modesto $390/SF

79 Modesto $366/SF

2008:

36 Arcata $403/SF

65 Modesto $394/SF

39 Modesto $393/SF

74 Arcata $389/SF

46 Olivehurst $387/SF

61 Meadow Valley $385/SF

60 Meadow Valley $380/SF

67 Arcata $380/SF

63 Arcata $380/SF

63 Modesto $373/SF

83 Talmadge $373/SF

35 Modesto $368/SF

64 Meadow Valley $364/SF

2009:

73 Modesto $383/SF

59 Arcata $383/SF

95 Talmadge $377/SF

64 Arcata $376/SF

62 Arcata $370/SF

72 Arcata $368/SF

66 Arcata $361/SF

53 Meadow Valley $357/SF

53 Modesto $353/SF

75 Modesto $334/SF

2010:

91 Talmadge $440/SF

67 Modesto $394/SF

71 Meadow Valley $381/SF

41 Modesto $380/SF

48 Olivehurst $368/SF

49 Meadow Valley $351/SF

2011:

66 Meadow Valley $382/SF

54 Arcata $367/SF

35 Meadow Valley $362/SF

2012:

68 Meadow Valley $350/SF.

The price per square foot area for the San Simeon homes in Northpark guard gated community has gone from $506 in 2006 to $350 in 2012. That is $156 down in six years. Coming to think of it, 91 Talmadge is not a good comparable property for the other San Simeon properties. It has a huge driveway, and a front yard which is unusual for a detached condo. But the next sold price is at $493/SF which is not too far off from the $506/SF of 91 Talmadge.

Where do you think these homes are headed to? Will we see a drop below $300/SF this summer, the so called bottom before the rebound? Which house would you buy?

Considering the floor plans are same, they were built in the same year and none of them back busy streets or freeways, I would go with the cheaper option, 43 Meadow Valley.

Discuss below or on Talk Irvine.

When you ask people what matters most in the house they will buy, they will pick floor plan. If you ask me, there is one more decision to make before you set out to buy. Attached, detached or Single Family Residence. All Irvine villages offer the three choices. Today, we will compare three properties around the same square feet area in the village of Woodbury. One of them is an attached condominium that shares common wall with neighbors, and one of them is a detached condominium that doesn’t have any shared wall, and the other one is a single family residence.

15 Herringbone, Irvine CA 92620

(Attached Condominium)

55 Plantation, Irvine, CA 92620

(Detached Condominium)

28 Rising Sun, Irvine CA 92620

(Single Family Residence)

Here is a side-by-side comparison of the three properties:

	15 Herringbone Irvine, CA 92620 (Attached)	55 Plantation Irvine, CA 92620 (Detached)	28 Rising Sun Irvine, CA 92620 (Single Family Residence)
Listing Price	$648,800	$729,000	$828,888
Beds/ bath	3 Beds/ 3 Baths	3 Beds/2.75 Baths	3 Beds/ 2.5 Baths
Area	2090	1964	1949
Price/ SF	$310	$371	$425
Levels	Two	Two	Two
Year Built	2008	2005	2006
Previous sale	$680,000 in Jan 2008 Listed for $31,200 less than the last sale	$669,880 in Dec 2007 Listed for $59,120 more than the last sale	$986,500 in Jun 2006 Listed for $157,612 less than the last sale
Floor Plan	Builders Tract Name: la Casella Builders Tract Code: LACA Builders Model Name: PLAN 2 Builders Model Code: 2	Builders Tract Name: Stonetree Builders Tract Code: WDST Builders Model Code: 1	Builders Tract Name: Portisol Builders Tract Code: WDPT Builders Name: California Pacific Homes Builders Model Code: 2
Type of Sale	Standard	Standard	Standard
Elementary School	Woodbury Elementary School API Rank: 9 API Growth: 918
Middle School	Sierra Vista Middle School API Rank: 10 API Growth: 948
High School	Northwood High School API Rank: 10 API Growth: 908
Down payment	$129,760	$145,800	$165,778
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 4.0%	$2,478.00	$2,784.00	$3,166
Home Owner’s Dues	$105+$220	$158+$105	$105
Mello-Roos	$3,732 Annually $311 Monthly	$4053 Annually $338 Monthly	$4598 Annually $383 Monthly
Property Tax (1.0595%)	$6874 Annually $573 Monthly	$7724 Annually $644 Monthly	$8782 Annually $732 Monthly
Fixed Monthly Cost of owning	$3687.00	$4029.00	$4386.00

Which one would you buy? What are the factors that help you decide? In a village where 62% of homes have offered a price reduction of about 6%, will you buy your house now, or wait for the summer of 2012?

The median sold price of the homes has dropped 29.3% in the past year in Woodbury. Will it drop further this summer? The rate of unemployment is headed south in Irvine. Will that help the housing market? What do you think?

Here is an updated list of the housing numbers for each Irvine neighborhood. Does anyone care to give an opinion on what these numbers mean?

Area	List Price/# of Homes Listed	Sold Price/# Homes Sold	List Per SF	Sold Per SF	% Chg M-O-M Sold Price/SF	% Chg Y-O-Y Sold Price/SF
Airport/IBC
February 2012	$392K/48	$330K/15	$337	$288	-4.30%	-11.70%
January 2012	$374K/52	$327K/18	$332	$317	15.90%	-17%
Columbus Grove	n/a
El Camino
February 2012	$467K/26	$340K/5	$339	$281	5.20%	-6.60%
January 2012	$462K/28	$389K/6	$322	$267	-10.10%	-28.40%
Northpark
February 2012	$459K/74	$415K/13	$301	$280	1.10%	-9.40%
January 2012	$465K/91	$412K/19	$290	$277	-3.10%	-20.90%
Northwood
February 2012	$504K/66	$292K/13	$300	$287	-1.70%	-7.10%
January 2012	$489K/78	$518K/17	$286	$292	3.90%	-7.60%
Oak Creek
February 2012	$487K/26	$267K/13	$317	$267	3.80%	-15.8
January 2012	$350K/33	$249K/9	$308	$261	-8.10%	-20.40%
Orange Tree
February 2012	$242K/6	$200K/6	$249	$230	-7.60%	-33.50%
January 2012	$216K/12	$205K/5	$252	$249	-4.20%	-13.50%
Portola Springs
February 2012	$641K/31	$510K/1	$317	$249	-15%	-12%
January 2012	$623K/43	$570K/7	$321	$293	16.70%	1.40%
Quail Hill
February 2012	$515K/21	$470k/6	$364	$307	-5.80%	-10.80%
January 2012	$560K/20	$512K/8	$324	$326	-5%	-13.30%
Rancho San Joaquin
February 2012	$492K/6	$360K/1	$297	$336	49.30%	n/a
January 2012	n/a
Shady Canyon
February 2012	$5,995K/23	$3,200K/3	$725	$603	12.90%	7.50%
January 2012	$5,980K/23	$2,670K/5	$720	$534	n/a	24.20%
Turtle Ridge
February 2012	$1,899K/27	$955K/4	$527	$441	24.20%	18.90%
January 2012	$1,672K/32	$532K/4	$493	$355	-13.80%	-25.30%
Turtle Rock
February 2012	$1,024K/38	$1,422K/4	$457	$559	89.50%	14.30%
January 2012	$974K/40	$545K/8	$458	$295	-20.30%	-14.20%
University Park
February 2012	$578K/14	$555K/4	$297	$286	1.80%	9.60%
January 2012	$595K/14	$420K/7	$289	$281	-15.10%	-10.80%
University Town Center
February 2012	$347K/6	$384K/1	$342	$265	-15.90%	-19.50%
January 2012	$467K/10	$480K/1	$330	$315	-4%	n/a
Walnut
February 2012	$600K/5	$509K/3	$316	$310	19.70%	-9.40%
January 2012	$600K/11	$596K/4	$298	$259	-9.80%	-12.80%
West Irvine	n/a
Westpark
February 2012	$649K/21	$506K/6	$319	$361	1.40%	21.50%
January 2012	$552K/20	$695K/2	$331	$356	-6.60%	-11.20%
Woodbridge
February 2012	$459K/83	$399K/23	$328	$312	14.30%	-4.90%
January 2012	$435K/93	$402K/15	$317	$273	-13.10%	-6.20%
Woodbury
February 2012	$650K/33	$419K/8	$330	$298	1.40%	-4.70%
January 2012	$611K/44	$460K/8	$314	$292	-2%	-16.80%

Source: Redfin.com

In the gated community of Corta Bella in Westpark where half of the housing inventory is rented, there are two identical two bedroom condominiums for sale. They would make good rental properties, or starter homes. In 2011, these homes had rented between $1900 to $2100 per month. Both have a two car garage on one floor, living/dining spaces and kitchen on another one, and bedrooms on the top floor. The community has a mix of 83% white collar, and 17% blue collar workforce with a median income of $95,883.

	19 PALMIERI AISLE Irvine, CA 92606	15 BETTONI AISLE Irvine, CA 92606
Listing Price	$360,000	$341,900
Beds/ bath	2 Beds + 2 Baths	2 Beds + 2.5 Baths
Area	1302	1302 SF
Price/ SF	$276	$263
Levels	Three Levels	Two Levels
Year Built	1993	1993
Previous sale	$177,000 in May 1994 $186,000 in Feb 1998 $375,000 in July 2003 $537,500 in Aug 2005 Discount from peak: $177,50	$186,500 in Dec 1994 $571,000 in May 2006 $360,000 in June 2011 (Foreclosed) Discount from peak: $229,100
Floor Plan	Builders Tract Name: Corte Bella Builders Tract Code: CB Builders Model Name: IL Romantico Builders Model Code: B	Builders Tract Name: Corte Bella Builders Tract Code: CB Builders Model Name: IL Romantico Builders Model Code: G
Type of Sale	Short Sale	Standard Sale
Elementary School	Westpark Elementary School (Year Round School) API Rank 9 API Growth: 913 Culverdale Elementary School API Rank: 8 API Growth: 857
Middle School	Southlake Middle School API Rank: 10 API Growth: 916
High School	University High School API Rank: 10 API Growth: 908
Down payment	$72,000	$68,380
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 3.875%	$1396.00 Monthly	$1326.00 Monthly
Home Owner’s Dues	$305 + $41 = $346	$292 + $43 = $335
Mello-Roos	$643.63 Annually $53.63 Monthly	$643.63 Annually $53.63 Monthly
Property Tax (1.18681%)	$4272.50 Annually $356 Monthly	$4057.70 Annually $338 Monthly
Fixed Monthly Cost of owning	$2151.63	$2052.63

Westpark Sales History of similar homes since 2006:

2006:

1 Torrigiani Aisle $598,000

15 Bettoni Aisle $571,000

1 Cigliano isle $570,000

3 Palmieri Aisle $550,000

3 Imperial Aisle $530,000

2007:

2 Arese Aisle $550,000

1 Crivelli Aisle $530,000

20 Palmieri Aisle $529,000

3 Crivelli Aisle $484,000

2008:

2 Arese Aisle $485,000

2009:

3 Crivelli Aisle $449,000

2 Crivelli Aisle $443,000

3 Cigliano Aisle $440,000

2010:

1 Palmieri Aisle $445,000

21 Palmieri Aisle $441,000

1 Mozzoni Aisle $429,000

14 Bettoni Aisle $427,000

3 Cuzzano Aisle $410,000

1 Arese Aisle $399,000

2011:

26 Crivelli Aisle $358,888

Over the period of five years, the price of these condos has fallen from $598,000 to $358,888. That is a loss of $239,112, or forty percent loss on the investment. 2012 listing prices are in the $340,000 to $360,000 range. The market is still in correction mode. According to Trulia,” The median sales price for homes in Irvine CA for Dec 11 to Feb 12 was $480,000. This represents a decline of 2.7%, or $13,500, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 12.6% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 29.4% over the last 5 years in Irvine.”

Would you buy one of these condominiums as a starter home or an investment property? Which one would you prefer? Short Sale or Standard Sale?

Plan G (15 Bettoni) has a half bathroom downstairs, but Plan B (19 Palmieri) has bathrooms only with the bedroom spaces. Plan G has laundry in the garage, while Plan B has laundry with the living spaces. Going by those two, I would prefer Plan G. Would the half bathroom and laundry space matter to you in a three level house?