Since I am most interested in helping those in the market for the low- to mid-level priced housing, those are the Irvine homes that I will take the closest look at in my posts. However, now and then, a look at how the other half (Or is that the one percent?) live is interesting. So it’s on to a look at housing in Shady Canyon.

Any of you who are familiar with Irvine real estate know that Shady Canyon is Irvine’s most expensive neighborhood. According to Redin, 25 Shady Canyon homes are currently on the market (however, a savvy real estate agent might know of some others that are available but not listed). The median list price of these homes is $5,980,000 or $725 per square foot. Redfin stats show that no Shady Canyon homes sold in December 2011, but 5 homes sold in January 2012. The median selling price for these 5 homes was $2,670,000 or $534 per square foot.

Shady Canyon Price/SF courtesy Redfin

All the homes in Shady Canyon are single family, and not just single-family but mega single-family abodes. The 5-bedroom, 7.5 home at 66 Golden Eagle with 10,500 square feet is an example. It’s listed for $7,945,000 or $757 per square foot.

The most expensive of Redfin’s Shady Canyon listings is the 6-bedroom, 10-bath home at 36 Boulder View. It’s listed for $14,999,000 or $1,531 per square foot. Redfin stats also show that this home was listed for $15,499,000 on March 4, 2010 as well as $13,995,000 on May 3, 2010. According to Zestimate, the value for this home has not increased or decreased during the last 30 days. However, Zestimate lists the current value of this home at $12,748,200.

If that is too expensive for you, then you might be interested in Shady Canyon’s least expensive home. The 6-bedroom, 6.5-bath home at 26 Vernal Spring is listed at only $2,988,000 or $572 per square foot. What a steal! According to Redfin, this home was listed for $3,088,000 on November 16, 2011, and according to Zestimate, the value of 26 Vernal Spring has decreased by $32,700 in the last 30 days. The current Zestimate is $2,500,600.

If you want to take a look at some of this Shady Canyon real estate, the following homes will be hosting open houses in the near future:

• 55 Vernal Spring: Saturdays and Sundays, February 18, February 19, February 25, February 26; 1-4 pm
• 25 Needle Grass: Saturday and Sunday, February 18, February 19; 1-4 pm
• 53 Boulder: Saturday and Sunday, February 25, February 26; 1-4 pm

Before we leave the high-end housing market, let’s take a look at how the wider Orange County high-end market is faring.

According to Jon Lansner and colleagues:

“Just four of the 83 Orange County ZIP codes had median sales prices above $1 million in the 22 business days ending Jan.11. That’s quite a drop from 11 ZIP codes that had median sales prices above $1 million when the county median price peaked in June 2007. Since that pricing pinnacle, there’s been a 38 percent drop in the countywide median price.”—ZIPs above $1 million mark drop, The Orange County Register

Note: Since Irvine’s ZIP codes contain many different neighborhoods with different pricing levels, I focused on the Shady Canyon neighborhood instead of its ZIP code (92603).The 92603 ZIP code contains the Quail Hill, Turtle Rock, Turtle Ridge, and Shady Canyon neighborhoods. According to DataQuick Information Systems, the median price for homes in the 92603 ZIP code was $650,000 for the last 22 days ending in January 26, 2012. This is a 42.3% decrease from the 2010 price.

Well, looking at another slice of life was fun, but now it’s back to reality. In a future post, I will look at the other side of the equation by focusing on the Orange Tree neighborhood. Orange Tree contains some of Irvine’s least expensive homes.

26 Bowie Pl is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath single family detached home in the Liberty tract in the Independence section of West Irvine. Click the picture below for a closer view.

There are three main floor plans in the Liberty tract and at 1,755 square feet, 26 Bowie is the middle plan.

There are two other Plan 2's on the market that are in the Accepting Backup Offers status:

111 Confederation – Listed at $571,700

31 Halifax – Listed at $549,000

As far as Plan 2 Closed Sales, I found these:

9/23/11 155 Church Place $585,000

9/19/11 162 Church Place $585,000

Given the actual closed sales and the status of the two accepting backup offers, I'll use a price of $570k for the analysis.

Purchase Price	$570,000
Closing costs	$17,100	3%
Total price	$587,100
Down payment	$131,100	20%
Loan Amount / Percentage Of Price	$456,000	80%
Interest Rate / Period (months)	4.00%	360
	Monthly	Yearly
Mortgage Payment	$2,177	$26,124
Interest Component	$1,520	$18,240
Property Tax	$503	$6,039	1.06%
Special Assessments	$96	$1,147	0.20%
Effective Tax rate			1.26%
Insurance	$50	$600
HOA 1	$0	$0
HOA 2	$0	$0
Cash Out	$2,826	$33,910

There are some possible adjustments that may apply to your situation. Be sure to also consider how long you may own the property (average is around 6 years), what kind of financing you actually qualify for, how much you put down, the effect of giving up the standard deduction, potential price declines, costs to sell the property, etc. The NY Times Buy or Rent calculator is a great tool that helps with some of these.

Possible Adjustments
Interest paid		$18,240
Property tax		$6,039
Total deductible		$24,279
Tax benefit	$506	$6,070	25%
Opportunity cost of down payment	-$219	-$2,622	2%
Principal paid in mortgage payment	$657	-$7,884

What do these Plan 2s rent for? I didn't find any recent closed leases for Plan 2s. There is a Plan 3 (~2000 sq ft) at 27 Halifax which is asking $2650/month.

Would you buy 26 Bowie for $570k or rent it for $2650/month?

Culver Drive, Irvine.

Did you know Culver Drive is named after the farmer Frederick Culver and his wife Agnes who built a house at the intersection of Highway 5, Culver Drive and Trabuco Road? The street was so busy and dangerous at that time, Agnes used to treat the crash victims at their house at the intersection. A century has passed and Culver is still one of the busiest streets in Irvine, serves as the main street for many Villages of Irvine as well as entries and exits to Highway 5 and Highway 405.

Today we will look at two communities, Northwood and Northpark on either side of Culver. Both have the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms, same square feet area, almost same listing price and great schools with a perfect ten API. Both are gated communities.

Which one would you buy?

Zipcode Sales Analysis in the past year:

In the past year, homes in Northwood have listed for a median price of $394/SF, and the homes in the 92620 zip code have listed for a median price of $367/SF.

In the past year, homes in Northpark have listed for a median price of $350/SF, and the homes in the 92602 zip code have listed for a median price of $348/SF.

Home 1: 46 NORTH MIDDLEBURY LN Irvine, CA 92620

List Price: $789,000

3 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathrooms

2308 SF, $342/ SF

Year Built: 1998

Community: Northwood

Estimated payments, assuming a Down-payment of 20%, and a 30 YR fixed mortgage at 3.75%:

Northwood Point monthly payment: $3498.00

Mortgage : $2923 + Property Tax: $5289 for 2011 + HOA 1 : $94 + HOA 2: $40

Home 2: 106 SPRING VLY, Irvine, CA 92602

List Price: $798,800

3 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathrooms

2300 SF, $347/ SF

Year Built: 2001

Community: Northpark

Estimated payments, assuming a Down-payment of 20%, and a 30 YR fixed mortgage at 3.75%:

Northpark monthly payment: $3878

Mortgage: $2959 + Property Tax: $9177 for 2011 + HOA 1: $155

The Northwood home will work out $380 cheaper per month than the Northpark home.

Community information:

Both of the communities have around 80% White Collar workforce residents, and around 85% of the residents have college education. On the income range, the median for 92620 is $108,483, while the median for 92602 is $90,555. Median age of the residents doesn’t differ much, 92620 is at 33, and 92602 is at 35. Housing inventory shows that there is 4.9% vacant homes in 92620, and 6.1% in 92602.

While both the zipcodes have low crime, keeping in line with the City of Irvine statistics, 92620 scored 1.54 on robbery and 92602 scores a 6.6. Both are gated communities, but 92602 is a “guard” gated community. Does that make a difference? Statistics seem to agree on that fact.

Schools:

Elementary School:

For Northwood: Canyon View Elementary School

For Northpark: Hicks Canyon Elementary School

The schools have a perfect 10 API, Great Schools website rates them a perfect ten and the parent rating are five stars. API growth score for Canyon View is 966 while Hicks lags behind at 942. Canyon View kids did better than Hicks Canyon kids in CST testing for language arts, but Hicks Canyon has a slight upper hand in math scores. Sorting by ethnicity, both have Asian population at the top followed by White. Teachers in both the schools have full credentials. The list of Hicks Canyon’s extracurricular activities is almost thrice the size of Canyon View’s.

Middle School:

For Northwood: Sierra Vista Middle School

For Northpark: Orchard Hills Middle School

Both schools have the perfect 10 API, perfect 10 Great Schools rating. Orchard Hills has a perfect five stars from the parents, but Sierra Vista has four stars. (Orchard Hills has only one review). Sierra Vista parents are not very pleased with the teachers, administrative staff and overcrowding. Orchard hills has a new building to house the 1200 kids. Orchard Hills also leads the API growth numbers at 952 vs. Sierra Vista’s 948. Other information like test scores, and teacher credential, student ethnicity could not be compared as the data is still unavailable for Orchard Hills.

High School:

For Northwood: Northwood High School

For Northpark: Arnold Beckman High School

High School is almost the same story. A perfect 10 API score, and perfect 10 Great School rating, and a four star from parent reviews. Beckman High scored 866 on API growth, and Northwood High scored 908. The test scores for Northwood High (99% for Grade 10 CAHSEE) are significantly higher than the test scores for Beckman (92% for Grade 10 CAHSEE). Ethnicity of the students is slightly different too, Beckman has -White 34%, Asian 29% and Hispanic 28% where as Northwood High has Asian 45%, White 43% and Hispanic 5%. Classroom size works in Northwood High’s favor with 26 students per class against the 31 at Beckman High.

Beckman High SAT Scores for 2011:

Critical Reading 548

Math 588

Writing 571

Northwood High SAT Scores for 2011:

Critical Reading: 579

Math 640

Writing 603

Personal Observations:

Personally, I would prefer 106 Spring Valley in Northpark (Mendocino North, MND2, according to the MLS). The house has interesting exterior features like the gated driveway to the courtyard. Laundry is upstairs, and there is a small study that could be converted into a nice home office. The small balcony off the master bedroom adds a romantic touch too. The linen closet and the corridor to the other side of the master bedroom turn me off, and the house has a linear feel to it.

I didn’t like the garage for 46 North Middlebury Lane (Carlyle at Lanes End Model Code 5, according to the MLS). What’s with the garage! For anything above 400k, I would want a nice and wide two car garage, and not tandem parking. Agreed, there are two exits, but there is something very unappealing about a long and narrow garage. The rest of the floor plan is functional and the home office with a deck is a nice touch. I don’t usually comment on the wall/ floor finishes, or anything that could be customized later, but I will make an exception and say that the homeowner worked really hard on the wall finishes. But the house lost me at the garage.

Without choosing a particular home, if I were to settle down in one of those two villages, I would choose Northwood. Northwood sales data is also in better than the Northpark. Northwood High is definitely more attractive than Beckman High based on the stats.

Which side of Culver would you choose? Would you buy in North Park or Northwood? Why?

Which house appeals more to you? Is garage a decisive factor to you?

When all schools have 10 API and a very good API growth score, does the slightly better option influence your decision? Why?

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

What a difference a Pointe makes…If you had $775,000 to spend on a home in Irvine and were debating between Northwood and Northwood Pointe, what would matter most to you? I did a quick search of homes sold in the Northwood and Northwood Pointe villages in Irvine and saw these two homes, similiar in size and price, but very different in age and features. Let's do a quick comparison.

Home 1:

17 Mount Vernon

Village of Northwood Pointe

Home Size: 2390 Sq Ft

Lot Size: 3741

Bedrooms: 4

Bathrooms: 2.5

Year Built: 1999

$325/sq ft

Sold for $777,000 on 9/14/11

Home 2:

21 West Ensueno

Village of Northwood

Home Size: 2392

Lot Size: 5500

Bedrooms: 4

Bathrooms: 2.5

Year Built: 1978

$324/sq ft

Sold for $775,000 on 10/20/11

Let's get the easy part out of the way first. Here's what the two homes had in common for about $775k:

• Square footage (2390)
• Price and price/sq ft
• 4 Bedrooms
• 2 1/2 bath
• Stainless steel appliancesric
• Detached, no common walls
• Middle School – Sierra Vista
• High School – Northwood

The Differences:

• Elementary Schools

  • Home 1 goes to Canyon View
  • Home 2 goes to Santiago Hills Elementary
  • Both belong to Irvine Unified School District

• Home 2 is in on a cul-de-sac, Home 1 is not
• Taxes –

  • Home 2 in Northwood does not have Mello Roos but Home 1 in Northwood Pointe does
  • 2010 Property taxes for Home 1 were $10,084 vs. $5626 fo Home 2

• Home owners association dues

  • Home 1: $90 +$45 = $135 per month
  • Home 2: $83 per month

• Age

  • Home 1 is almost 20 years newer than Home 2 and it shows:

Luckily Home #2 has been updated to include a more modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances:

Is it just me or does it seem like there are a whole lotta cabinets in this kitchen? Home 1 also has a lot of cabinets with stainless steel appliances but I think I like the shape of the island and setup of the the kitchen in Home 2.

• Lot Size

  • Home 1 has a lot size of 3741 with a 2390 square foot house built upon it. Once you factor in the space used by the driveway, garage, etc., there's not a ton of yard left. But it does have some lawn in the backyard and actually a nice little outdoor barbeque/counter setup for entertaining. I could see myself gettin' all Bobby Flay out there with that.

• Home 2 has a lot size of 5500 sqft and has considerably more space to play with. They have a pool, a spa and a grassy patch too…I could see myself gettin' all “coolest mom on the street” with that pool and the fun chandelier.

And really, the chandelier isn't enough to make me want the house. If the home didn't have a pool, I'd actually lean towards Home 2 over Home 1. The $4400 per year break that you receive as a result of having no Mello Roos is significant. Although the older home has “Newer (?) Interior Doors” and would require some updating, I would still pick it over Home 1…if it weren't for the pool. What would you do?

Discuss below or at Talk Irvine.

166 Alicante Aisle is a 2bd/2ba condo in the Tiempo tract in Westpark. Tiempo is bounded by the San Diego River Trail, Alton Parkway, Harvard Ave and San Marco Park. Click the picture below for a closer view. The streets in this tract are Alicante, Costero, Abrazio, Marbella and Giovanni.

There are a number of floorplans here and it looks like this property is a plan D. It looks like there is another Plan D listed currently at $389k: 132 Alicante. The only recent sale I found for a Plan D looks to be 164 Alicante which closed on 12/29/2011 for $300k. We'll use that price in the analysis.

166 Alicante

Purchase Price	$300,000
Closing costs	$9,000	3%
Total price	$309,000
Down payment	$69,000	20%
Loan Amount / Percentage Of Price	$240,000	80%
Interest Rate / Period (months)	4.00%	360
	Monthly	Yearly
Mortgage Payment	$1,146	$13,750
Interest Component	$800	$9,600
Property Tax	$258	$3,101	1.03%
Special Assessments	$54	$644	0.21%
Effective Tax rate			1.25%
Insurance	$50	$600
HOA 1	$185	$2,220
HOA 2	$0	$0
Cash Out	$1,693	$20,315

And here are some possible adjustments that may apply to your situation. Be sure to also consider how long you may own the property (average is around 6 years), what kind of financing you actually qualify for, how much you put down, the effect of giving up the standard deduction, potential price declines, costs to sell the property, etc. The NY Times Buy or Rent calculator is a great tool that helps with some of these.

Possible Adjustments
Interest paid		$9,600
Property tax		$3,101
Total deductible		$12,701
Tax benefit	$265	$3,175	25%
Opportunity cost of down payment	-$115	-$1,380	2%
Principal paid in mortgage payment	$346	-$4,150

As far as rentals, 36 Marbella was listed on 12/31 and is asking $1850/month. And 86 Costero leased on 5/3/2011 at $1650/month. Similar 2 bedroom apartments at San Marco Villa rent between $1,670 and $1,825. Would you rent or buy this property?

Discuss below or on our companion thread at Talk Irvine.