From the Press-Telegram: “Housing market’s looking positive – About 12,000 Realtors gathered in Long Beach for three days last week to hear the fate of the market at the California Realtor Expo 2006 at the convention center. A housing report delivered at the conference on Wednesday forecast the median home price to fall slightly for the first time in 10 years. But most Realtors spoken with at the conference viewed the market with optimism, as did those who compiled the numbers.”

“The experts offered mostly positive outlooks for the 2007 economy and housing market for California, despite the expected drop in the median home price and a foreclosure report issued on Wednesday that showed the number of foreclosure notices sent to Californians rose to double what it was last year. Cagan discussed a study he recently released on housing resets, which looks at the impact of adjustable mortgages resetting to a higher rate after a three or so year period of fixed rates. Cagan said foreclosures will have some effect on the market, but it won’t be anything like the gloom and doom scenario of a bursting real estate bubble.

From the OC Register: “Reporter Jeff Collins joins the record numbers taking the state’s real estate license exam and struggles to avoid becoming one of the thousands who fail.”

“The number of tests administered in this state increased from about 34,000 in fiscal year 1997-98 to more than 185,000 in fiscal year 2005-06. Of those, nearly 24,000 tests were taken this past year right here in Anaheim, the fourth-busiest of the state’s 13 test sites.”

“Orange County had the second-highest number of real estate license holders in California, second only to Los Angeles.”

From the Press Enterprise: “UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff called the recent report by Moody’s Economy.com, which forecast home prices in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to drop almost 12 percent, a bit drastic. … ‘We definitely think the real price of houses will fall, but you won’t see it in the nominal price of the home, or what’s on the price tag,’ Ratcliff said.”

“Redlands-based economist John Husing said he expects the Inland region’s steady population growth to help it bounce back from the housing slowdown before the rest of the state. ‘The Inland market is in a little bit better shape than other places because it’s still so much less expensive than the coast,’ he said. ‘The growth in Orange County is basically done.’ “

Also from the Press Enterprise: “Commuters looking for a cheaper place to live are still gazing east toward Riverside and San Bernardino counties, even though apartment rents have risen 6 percent since this time last year, according to a report released last week. Inland-area rents have risen to an average of $1,129, but that’s still cheaper than a $1,546 average monthly rent payment in Orange and Los Angeles counties, according to RealFacts Inc.”

” ‘Because house prices are high and interest rates are high, the monthly payment for homes is substantially higher than rent,’ she said ‘(Homebuyers) right now are sitting on the sidelines,’ and renting while they wait out the housing price dip, she said. Land in Los Angeles and Orange County is still expensive and sparse, which makes the Inland region more attractive for dense apartment buildings, said Jack Keyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. But many homeowners say ‘not in my backyard’ when dense rental development is proposed”

From abc7: “In Orange County, there was a 101.9 percent jump in default notices sent to homeowners over the same quarter last year, according to DataQuick Information Systems.”

“It was much the same story across Southern California, with foreclosure notices increasing 104.8 percent in the six-county region in the third quarter, DataQuick reported. San Diego County saw a nearly 160 percent jump in foreclosure notices over the same quarter last year, while Riverside saw a 140 percent rise.”

From the OC Register: “Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, is projecting a ‘modest’ price decline following years of price gains in the double digits.”

“Young projected that the median California home price will fall to $550,000 next year from this year’s projected median of 561,000. Sales will tumble to 447,500 homes changing hands in 2007, compared to 481,200 home sales expected this year.”

UPDATE #1 – Here’s the link to the foreclosure info from DataQuick

UPDATE #2 – Some nice charts from the OC Register

From CBS 2: “The unsold inventory of new homes in Orange County is at the highest level since 1996, according to an economic forecast released Friday in Irvine.”

“The report noted that what usually happens when a real estate market bubble bursts “is that sales just dry up” because buyers won’t buy homes at the listed price and sellers are unwilling to cut their prices. It described the result as “the economic equivalent of Chinese water torture” — with the decline in prices starting slowly but lasting a long time.”

“The economists said they do not expect a major decline in home prices this year.”

From the OC Register: “Orange County’s home prices continued to soften last month as sellers weathered the slowest September in 14 years, new housing figures released Thursday show.”

“The median price of an Orange County home sold last month was $626,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems.”

“Although the median price is up $16,000, or 2.6 percent, from 12 months ago, it’s the third monthly decline in a row.”

“In addition, the median price of an existing condominium fell from year-ago levels for the first time since June 1997. Last month, the median condo price was $440,000, down 3.3 percent from September 2005.”

From the LA Times: “Sellers who aren’t keeping pace with buyers’ expectations are growing discouraged and withdrawing their listings.”

“That’s exactly what Kurt Freck did. His Anaheim Hills home was on the market at the same price of $849,000 for three months. But after no nibbles, and seeing price reductions at comparable homes for sale in his neighborhood, he decided to cancel his listing agreement when it expired Tuesday.”

“‘I’m fortunate because I don’t have to sell,” said Freck, who purchased his home three years ago and believes that it has since doubled in value. “But as a homeowner, you got so used to watching homes sell quickly in the last couple of years.'”

“‘The market hasn’t gone into that desperation mode yet, but we see it as in the earliest stage of the downward pressure on prices,’ said Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange.”