Category Archives: News

$15,000,000 in Irvine?

How do you value very high end homes? I don’t know. The person who is buying a $15,000,000 property probably isn’t getting a subprime option ARM with 100% financing and a 1% teaser rate. In fact, people who buys homes at these price levels often don’t use financing at all.

I do have to wonder, would you pay $15,000,000 to live in Irvine?

72 Golden Eagle Front 72 Golden Eagle View

Price: $15,000,000

72 GOLDEN EAGLEIrvineRenter

IRVINE, CA 92603

Beds: 6

Baths: 6.5

Sq. Ft.: –

Lot Size: 0.94 acres

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 2007

Stories: Three or More Levels

View(s): Golf Course

Area: Shady Canyon

County: Orange

MLS#: U7001252

Status: Active

On Redfin: 156 days

Unsold in 90+ days

A pleasing departure from other Shady Canyon custom homes. This uniquely elegant 6 bedroom, 6 and 3 half-bath residence, modeled after the famed La Suvera in Tuscany, boasts a dramatic 3-level sunken central courtyard and the area’s best views. Theater, library, 9 car garage, wine cellar, pool, spa and best golf course view. Home to be completed in early 2008.

.

.

Nice place. What do you think?

Home Sales Data for July 2007

From the OC Register: “For the month of July 2007, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 19.8 percent. The median sales price did not change. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.

 “Change” is based on comparison to same period one year ago.

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

July 2007

% Change

July 2007

% Change

92602

$746,500

0.6%

21

-8.7%

92603

$855,000

-37.5%

40

42.9%

92604

$637,500

-1.9%

21

0.0%

92606

$725,000

-3.3%

21

5.0%

92612

$745,000

15.7%

43

104.8%

92614

$503,000

-16.2%

10

-56.5%

92618

$590,000

-5.6%

22

46.7%

92620

$743,500

-11.3%

52

8.3%

Source: DataQuick

Home Sales Data thru 7-25-2007

From today’s OC Register: “For the 22 business days ending July 25, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 18.9 percent. The median sales price increased 1.1 percent. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

92602

$765,000

4.8%

23

-30.3%

92603

$918,000

-6.6%

46

12.2%

92604

$626,250

-6.8%

26

13.0%

92606

$662,500

-11.7%

30

76.5%

92612

$900,000

70.2%

49

250.0%

92614

$474,000

-21.0%

12

-52.0%

92618

$670,000

15.8%

17

70.0%

92620

$748,500

-17.4%

57

-5.0%

Source: DataQuick

Crimson and Clover

Now I don’t hardly know her

But I think I could love her

Crimson and clover

Crimson and clover, over and over

Crimson and clover, over and over

Crimson and clover, over and over

Crimson and Clover — Tommy James and the Shondells

Link to Video

Joan Jett’s Version

If your a bear, and you have been waiting for the sign of the apocalypse, this is it. Get ready because I suspect we will see this over and over…

30 Crimson Front 30 Crimson Kitchen

Original Purchase Price: $1,722,000IrvineRenter

Original Purchase Date: 12/23/2005

Auction Sale Price: $1,400,000

Auction Sale Date: 8/1/2007

Address: 30 Crimson, Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 4

Baths: 4.5

Sq. Ft.: 3,403

$/Sq. Ft.: $558

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2005

Stories: 2

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Turtle Ridge

MLS#: S451259

Status: Active

On Redfin: 378 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “* * $100K PRICE REDUCTION!!FOR THIS TURTLE RIDGE SUMMIT HOME. MAIN FLOOR MASTER SUITE W/ CUSTOM CLOSET, KITCHEN W/ CTR ISLAND, NOOK, LIMESTONE FLOOR, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES. FAM. ROOM W/ WOOD FLOORS & FIREPLACE OPENS TO BACKYARD COVERED PATIO W/ BUILT-IN BBQ BAR AND BUBBLY SPA. FORMAL LR, FORMAL DR OPENS TO COURTYARD. WINE ROOM AND 1BR CASITA W/ BATH & PRIVATE ENTRANCE. CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS. MEDIA ROOM W/ BUILT-IN 89′ TV. EACH SECONDARY BR W/ BATH SUMMIT ASSOC has POOL, SPA, PARKS, TRAILS”

I guess the big price reduction and the ALL CAPS didn’t inspire many buyers…

I bet that 89′ TV is cool (I suspect that is inches and not feet though.)

.

.

If this were just a listing I was writing about, I would be wishing it a happy birthday. A full year on the market.

For any of you who don’t want to break out your calculators, this is a sales price at $411 / SF in Turtle Ridge. This doesn’t bode well for the argument that the high end is immune.Mushroom Cloud

This is a scenario we are going to see a lot of over the next few years: Homedebtors unable to sell because they are above the market, and unable to lower their price because they don’t have the cash to buy their way out. They put the property on the market at breakeven and hope they get lucky. In the meantime, the carry costs destroy them, they stop making payments, they go into foreclosure, and in the end, their whole financial empire is obliterated in a crimson mushroom cloud.

Evict the Squatters

Someone asked me recently if we should feel sorry for people like this, as if they were victims of circumstance. No we shouldn’t.

These people were victims of their own greed and ignorance. The circumstances which lead to this debacle were visible to those willing to see. Greed blinds people to the truth just like denial is blinding them now. There is an element of Shakespearian Tragedy to all of this, but at the root of every morality play is the idea that people are responsible for their own choices in life. These people are no less responsible for theirs.

The sad part, if there is one, is that these people were led to believe they could have this home in the first place. Obviously, they could not afford it, or they would still be there. A great many people in this market have set up a circumstance where they rent from the bank on temporary terms. Now, they are surprised when the bank evicts them. It was “their” house in their own minds. It was all one great illusion they set up for themselves (with some enabling from a lender.) It is a dream which has since turned into a nightmare.Squatter

In essence these people are all squatters. They are in possession of real estate they don’t really own, and they are crowding out those of us who really could own. Real ownership requires an understanding of what you can and cannot afford. It requires financing terms which provide stability and security (Financially Conservative Home Financing.) Most homebuyers during the rally overlooked this simple fact. When someone is making less money than you are, and they take possession of property that is of superior quality to what you can obtain, they are crowding you out. They are squatting in your house. Would you feel bad evicting a squatter from your property? I don’t think so.

Do I feel sad for these people? Sure. It is very sad when someone’s dream evaporates into the ethers, but that is part of life. You deal with it, and you move on. I feel compassion for their plight, but it is tempered by the knowledge that they created their own circumstances, and in life, you have to accept the consequences of what you do whether you want to or not.

Squatters Cartoon

I would like to thank GavriloPrincip for providing the auction sales information in our forum.

Home Sales Data thru 7-30-2007

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

92602

$751,500

0.9%

24

-31.4%

92603

$981,250

7.4%

36

-28.0%

92604

$628,750

-3.8%

21

-22.2%

92606

$606,250

-21.8%

31

210.0%

92612

$855,000

46.2%

46

130.0%

92614

$555,000

3.3%

21

-30.0%

92618

$804,500

69.4%

18

38.5%

92620

$750,000

-20.2%

42

-42.3%

The bulls can find some confirming data points here. The action in 92612 and 92618 is very bullish. Whenever there is increasing price and increasing volume, things are looking up. Of course, this could be foreclosure sales of high-end properties (which would not be bullish), but the data shows bullish activity.

The rest of the market… not so much, particularly 92606 where a dramatic increase in sales volume at much lower prices signifies fire-sale pricing. This is very bearish.