Category Archives: Library

Why Our Bear Rally Might Fizzle Out

Is the housing market ready to survive without government props and supports? We are about to find out.

Irvine Home Address … 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price …… $699,000

{book1}

Don't you know me I'm the boy next door

The one you find so easy to ignore

Is that what I was fighting for?

Walking on a thin line

Straight off the front line

Labeled as freaks loose on the streets of the city

Walking on a thin line

Angry all the time

Take a look at my face, see what it's doing to me

Huey Lewis and the News — Walking on a Thin Line

To all of you who served in the armed forces: thank you. Your sacrifice does not go unnoticed.

I hope everyone is enjoying this Memorial Day holiday.

And now, back to real estate…

The bust's second act

May 25th 2010, 15:12 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

FOR a brief moment last fall, it looked as though the American housing sector might not be the persistent economic drag economists had feared. Home prices and sales leveled off and began climbing. Construction did the same. In the third and fourth quarter of last year, residential investment was a minor but positive contributor to American output growth. Buoyed by a generous homebuyer tax credit and mortgage rates held down by Federal Reserve purchases, housing markets seem poised for stability, if not a new boom in activity.

But the good times haven't lasted. Construction and builder confidence have weakened once again. The latest data on existing home sales show a spike in activity and the best April performance since 2006. But this was almost certainly due to the looming end of the federal tax credit. Sales also rose and spiked before and immediately after the previous deadline, last fall, only to decline again through the winter. More worrying still, the previous spike in sales coincided with a decline in housing inventory. This time, inventories have risen dramatically. Even as the end of government incentive programmes lead buyers to exit the market, the number of homes for sale will have grown significantly.

And so it's not surprising that prices have also been falling again. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home prices declined 1.9% from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010. Prices were up 0.3% in March, according to the FHFA data, but the general trend is not encouraging. The latest Case-Shiller home price figures are similarly disappointing. Both of the Case-Shiller national indexes had declined for six consecutive months, through March. Only two of the individual markets, San Diego and San Francisco, saw a rise in home values in the first quarter. Total declines from last fall's price peak haven't been catastrophic. But they are troubling. Nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers remain underwater on their home loans. In the first quarter, the share of prime loans that were delinquent or in foreclosure rose sharply. That's bad for housing inventory, bad for home prices, and bad for the residential investment outlook.

These trends are the more worrisome given the end of the homebuyer tax credit and of Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Just this week, the head of the Federal Housing Administration declared that, "This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government…having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system.” The federal government may come to regret its decision to focus on measures aimed at encouraging sales, rather than on efforts to deal with negative homeowner equity. The latter issue has made for a steady-stream of foreclosed-upon housing inventory, too substantial to be absorbed by new buyers. And so with government measures winding down, the housing bust is free to carry on as before.

It is unlikely (though not impossible) that prices will plummet once more; price declines are likely to be small relative to those experienced in 2008 and 2009. But small declines are enough to do damage. Four years after the housing boom reached its apex and the bust began, and end to the mess remains just out of reach.

Delaying the decline

If justice delayed is justice denied, what is a market bust delayed? For as ominous as the signs are for our market, prices locally will likely continue to rise for the near term. Lenders have constricted inventory by failing to approve short sales and failing to foreclose on delinqent borrowers. With interest rates below 5% again, payment affordability is good. Until more product is released to the market or interest rates go up, prices will hold steady or rise. Unless lenders consider squatting a permanent solution to the problem, this product will come to the market, and it will impact pricing. it is only a matter of time.

Auction with equity

Today's featured property is a rarity in the trustee sale market since the crash: and equity owner who did not sell prior to auction.

The property was purchased on 4/15/2003 for $490,000. The owner used a $392,000 first mortgage and a $98,000 down payment. On 1/13/2005 he opened a $100,000 HELOC, but there is no indication that he used it. Then he defaulted:

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/26/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/18/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

I looks like they gave him about nine months after the NOT was filed before they actually went to auction. It isn't known why the owner did not sell and obtain his equity during that time.

The opening bid at auction was about $416,833.94. It was quickly bid up to $596,000. It is being flipped for a quick profit.

Irvine Home Address … 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price … $699,000

Home Purchase Price … $596,000

Home Purchase Date …. 3/16/2010

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $61,060

Percent Change ………. 17.3%

Annual Appreciation … 65.5%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$699,000 ………. Asking Price

$139,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.87% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$559,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$142,600 ………. Income Requirement

$2,958 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$606 ………. Property Tax

$225 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$58 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$151 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,998 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$719 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$688 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$262 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$87 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,940 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,592 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$139,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$159,372 ………. Total Cash Costs

$45,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$204,372 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 1,678 sq ft

($417 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 3,161 sq ft

Year Built: 1996

Days on Market: 40

Listing Updated: 40289

MLS Number: S614144

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Westpark

Tract: Rave

——————————————————————————

Gorgeous Home in Westpark. Upgraded Marble in entrance. Walking distance to school & park. Custom Window Covering. Mirrored walk-in closet door. Cathedral-vaulted ceilings. New Paint. Move-in ready.

.

I will not be participating in the comments today. It is my tenth wedding anniversary, and I will be be spending the day out with my family.

Ten years in, and I love my wife more than the day we were married. I am looking forward to the next ten and many more.

The Speculative Housing Bubble Mentality Still Governs the Market

The underlying mechanisms for inflating housing bubbles still exist, and the buyer mentality that inflated it still dominates the market. Only lender prudence prevents another housing bubble.

Irvine Home Address … 241 GREENMOOR Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $995,950

{book1}

Nobody asked for life to deal us

With these bullshit hands we're dealt

We have to take these cards ourselves

And flip them, don't expect no help

Now I could have either just

Sat on my ass and pissed and moaned

But take this situation in which I'm placed in

And get up and get my own

Eminem — Beautiful

The housing bubble and the kool aid mindset it spawned has been very disruptive to American life. Large segments of our population are addicted to Ponzi finance, and the prudent are being robbed to pay for the mistakes of the Ponzis. I find the IHB is an outlet for the frustrations with the insanity being inflicted upon us all. The sad part is how little has been done to correct the mistakes. We will do this again.

The Root of the Housing Bubble Remains Unchanged

Charles Hugh Smith (May 27, 2010)

The fundamental root of the housing bubble–the collusion of the Central State and banks to extend home ownership to millions of citizens who did not qualify for that burden– remains firmly in place.

The Federal government continues to pour tens of billions of dollars into … subsidies to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA. Mortgage lenders have been delighted to write mortgages in our completely nationalized market in which the government backs literally 99% of all mortgages and the Federal Reserve bought $1.2 trillion in mortgages that no sane private investor would touch.

Fannie Mae seeks $8.4 billion from government after loss: Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. residential mortgage funds provider, on Monday asked the government for an additional $8.4 billion after the company lost $13.1 billion in the first quarter.

Because of current trends in housing and financial markets, Fannie Mae expects to continue having a net worth deficit in future periods and to need to tap more funding from the Treasury.

"Promoting sustainable homeownership and maintaining ready access to liquidity are our guiding principles in serving the residential markets," said Michael Williams, the firm's chief executive.

The government has relied heavily on both companies, which buy mortgages from lenders to stimulate more lending, to stabilize the housing market.

In other words, the housing market would collapse without this massive Federal support, and there is no end to the losses this subsidy will require. Propping up the nation's fundamnetally insolvent housing market is truly a financial black hole.

The props to the housing market provided by the GSEs and FHA are a direct transfer of losses from banks to the Federal Government just like loan modification programs. Whether it stablizes the market or not is yet to be seen. The fact that lenders are being bailed out of future losses is certain. Losses from 2009 and 2010 vintage loans will all be covered by the US Taxpayer.

Meanwhile, the default rate on low-down-payment FHA loans is a staggering 20% on loans written in 2008–after the housing bust had already unfolded and the risk was undeniable: F.H.A. Problems Raising Concern of Policy Makers:

F.H.A. commissioner, David H. Stevens, acknowledged that some 20 percent of F.H.A. loans insured last year — and as many as 24 percent of those from 2007 — faced serious problems including foreclosure.

The Federal government has thus shown that it is so committed to propping up an unsustainable policy and housing market that it is ready to write off 1 in every 4 mortgages within a year of origination.

The problem with that willingness to absorb risk for the sake of incentivizing borrowing for home ownership is that next year another 20% will default, and then the following year another 20% will default, and by year Five the vast majority of those loans backed by FHA will be in default.

The theory is that the FHA buying will become the support the market needs to put in a durable bottom and prevent the 20% default year after year. It might work — if kool aid intoxication can form a durable bottom.

I have always stated it takes cashflow investors with a genuine reason to buy (outside of kool aid intoxication) to bring enough buyers to the market to stabilize pricing. The government has changed the dynamics of the trade. Instead of waiting for cashflow valuations to prompt buyers, the government is handing out 3.5% down payment mortgages and allowing people to take speculative option positions for little cost. The program does not entice cashflow buyers who will withstand a decline in price, it seduces the kool aid intoxicated who will bail if their position moves against them.

FHA Facing "Cataclysmic" Default Rates:

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has guaranteed about 25% of all new U.S. mortgages written in 2009, up from just 2% in 2005.

The key phrase here is "borrowing," not "home ownership." The key feature of State support of housing is not legitimate "home ownership," it is the enabling of massive new sources of income and transactional churn for lenders and Wall Street loan and derivatives packagers.

Home "ownership" when there is no equity in the purchase and no equity being built via principal payments is a simulacrum of ownership.

I wrote about this phenomenon in Money Rentership: Housing and the New American Dream. "Since lenders behave like owners of a borrower's real estate, and since lenders have right to force sale if a borrower defaults, lenders are owners, and owners are money renters." A property with no equity position is renting; it is either renting money or renting property. Renting money feels better because at least their is hope of free money later through appreciation.

If a buyer puts almost no money into the purchase–even now, FHA and VA loans can be had with a mere 3% down payment–and the loan is of the interest-only or adustable-rate (ARM) variety favored during the housing bubble's heyday, then there is no principal payment being made and thus no equity being built.

These "buyers" don't "own" anything; all they're doing is renting the money in the hopes that rising home prices will create equity for them out of thin air. What they "own" is essentially an option on a property which they "rent" monthly. If the government manages to reinflate the housing bubble (it won't, but hope and greed spring eternal), then the option will pay off handsomely. The "owner" put no money into the speculative bet, but they can then sell their option for a huge profit.

If housing plummets, then the "bet" was lost. But since "renting" the mortgage didn't cost much more than renting a real house, and there was no capital at risk, then the downside is modest indeed.

The author is aptly describing Mortgages as Options. "Mortgages took on the characteristics of options contracts in the Great Housing Bubble. Speculators utilized 100% financing and Option ARMs with low teaser rates to minimize the acquisition and holding costs of a particular property. The small amount they were paying was the “call premium” they were providing the lender. If prices went up, the speculator got to keep all the gains from appreciation, and if prices went down, the speculator could simply walk away from the mortgage and only lose the cost of the payments made, particularly when this debt was a non-recourse, purchase-money mortgage. Another method speculators and homeowners alike used was the “put” option refinance. Late in the bubble when prices were near their peak, many homeowners refinanced their properties and took out 100% of the equity in their homes. In the process, they were buying a “put” from the lender: if prices went down (which they did,) they already had the sales proceeds as if they had actually sold the property at the peak; if prices went up, they got to keep those profits as well. The only price for this “put” option was the small increase in monthly payments they had to make on the large sum they refinanced. If fact, on a relative cost basis, the premium charged to these speculators and homeowners was a small fraction of the premiums similar options cost on stocks."

In other words, heavily subsidized mortgages at low rates with little money down incentivizes not home "ownership" but speculation in credit-based bubbles.

In the "old days" (circa 1994), the expectation was that equity would be built by paying off the mortgage principal over time. Equity was a result of reducing the mortgage due, not the result of speculative gambling on future asset bubbles.

I wrote about the Ponzis all week. The defining characteristic of housing bubble Ponzis is their belief that income and wealth come with no sacrifice or effort. Free money is showered upon those who speculate by purchasing residential real estate. They don't need to save or be frugal; they obtain all their entitlements through borrowed money rather than industrious contribution to society.

The key feature of middle class wealth is thrift, not massive leveraged debt. What Washington and its financial Power Elite partners presented as "the road to middle class wealth" was in fact a mere chimera, a simulacrum of the road to middle class wealth. That road is fiscal prudence and thrift.

Immigrants have prospered in the U.S. for generations because they were thrifty and sacrificed for their children by sweating blood to save money for college educations and for 20% down payments on homes. They did not prosper by snagging Central State supported mortgages with no down payment on homes they could not afford under any prudent calculation of risk.

From this point of view, the entire "home ownership is for everyone" policy was a gigantic fraud, a con job sold to an American public greedy for a short-cut to middle class wealth. The bankers and the Central State government both profited immensely, as the bankers and Wall Street minted tens of billions in profits off the mortgage machine and its derivative spin-offs, and the government (at all levels, Federal, state and local) gorged on billions of dollars in transfer fees, capital gains taxes and the sales taxes on all the gewgaws home "owners" bought to fill up their new McMansions.

The California Economy Is Dependent Upon Ponzi Borrowers. The transition from a Ponzi economy to a thrift economy will be painful, and the economic malaise will drag on for quite some time.

Today's featured owner spent $360,000 of his middle class wealth

  • Today's featured property was purchased on 6/27/2000 for $610,000. The owners used a $610,000 loan according to my records. It is unusual to see a 100% first mortgage, particularly in 2000.
  • Kool aid did not seduce them until late. On 1/27/2005 they refinanced with a $595,000 first mortgage and a $100,000 HELOC. To this point, the owners were still paying down their mortgage. Apparently, that HELOC got them going.
  • On 9/13/2005 they opened a HELOC for $200,000.
  • On 12/21/2005 the wife borrows $250,000 in a stand-alone second.
  • On 6/29/2006, the couple refinanced with a $900,000 Option ARM with a 2.5% teaser rate.
  • On 8/3/2006, they obtained a $70,000 HELOC.
  • Total property debt is $970,000 plus negative amortization.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $360,000.
  • They have been squatting since late last year.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/09/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

Debt destruction or wage inflation are the answers

I believe only two reasonable solutions to this problem exist; either the debt gets destroyed through bank write-offs and debt destruction, or workers see massive wage inflation to make the debt affordable.

I have seen many articles suggesting that inflation is the cure, but that isn't accurate. Price inflation in the absence of wage inflation merely lowers everyone's standard of living and would cause widespread debt destruction as the over-burdened are crushed. Wage inflation without price inflation would be a miraculous panacea; house prices could get pushed back up to peak levels, and borrowers would still have disposible income without HELOC borrowing. With massive unemployment, wage inflation does not look iminent, and without it, debt destruction becomes the only viable option.

Short term, expect to see a great deal of squatting while the lenders remain in denial.

Irvine Home Address … 241 GREENMOOR Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $995,950

Home Purchase Price … $610,000

Home Purchase Date …. 6/27/2000

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $326,193

Percent Change ………. 63.3%

Annual Appreciation … 5.0%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$995,950 ………. Asking Price

$199,190 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.94% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$796,760 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$204,815 ………. Income Requirement

$4,248 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$863 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$83 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$78 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$5,272 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1036 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$968 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$381 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$124 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,774 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$9,960 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$9,960 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$7,968 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$199,190 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$227,077 ………. Total Cash Costs

$57,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$284,877 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 241 GREENMOOR Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 2,794 sq ft

($356 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,500 sq ft

Year Built: 1985

Days on Market: 23

Listing Updated: 40311

MLS Number: P733319

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Woodbridge

Tract: Othr

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

This property is in backup or contingent offer status.

Woodbridge is most sought after neighborhood with lots of upgrades. The hard wood floors have been refinished. All the room are very spacious, especially the master with a big walk-in closet. The layout is open, light and airy. Downstairs has dark hardwood floors. Upstairs has new carpet. Partial wall removed between two bedrooms to make a two-rooms suite for our kids, which can be easily replaced, this room also has separate door to the master.Ideal for young children.Inside the loop close to elementary school. Four community swimming pools and tennis courts within two blocks (free access to all Woodbridge residents). The South Lake lagoon is a few blocks away, with sand beaches, swimming, small water slides, picnic areas, and boat rentals. This home is in a fabulous school district in an excellent location.Backyard had a covered Saltillo patio; grass and kids play structure. Children play unit built in back yard. Tennis courts and Community pools nearby.

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

California Millionaires: Debtors Who Service Over $1,000,000

An accepted Calfornia oxymoron is debt is equal to wealth. Today we take a special look at the lives of debt millionaires.

Irvine Home Address … 29 LOOKOUT Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price …… $1,300,000

{book1}

Some boys kiss me, some boys hug me

I think they’re o.k.

If they don’t give me proper credit

I just walk away

They can beg and they can plead

But they can’t see the light, that’s right

’cause the boy with the cold hard cash

Is always mister right, ’cause we are

Living in a material world

And I am a material girl

You know that we are living in a material world

And I am a material girl

Madonna — Material Girl

Arriving Early

I have noticed that many in California believe the trappings of success are immediate. You get a job, and you lease the BMW. You get a $1,000 a year raise at work, you get an additional $10,000 credit line. You get married, and you borrow $1,000,000 and get your dream home. You have no need to save or wait, you can have it all now. You service the debt for your working life, and you obtain a reverse mortgage to retire on your boundless appreciation. Once you go into debt, you never, ever get out.

To "arrive" in life is to obtain every object of status you desire. Rich people arrive once they have saved enough money to pay cash for a few indulgences. High wage earners arrive once they can prove enough income to service a $1,000,000 debt.

Ponzis are changing the definition of a millionaire. In California debt equals wealth, so a millionaire is someone capable of obtaining and servicing a $1,000,000 debt. A million dollars in debt makes you rich.

I cannot fathom what is must be like to feed a beast that large. Right now the debt monster has a low 5% appetite, but what will those adjustable rate mortgages feel like when rates go up? To paraphrase and parody Irving Fisher, perhaps interest rates have reached what looks like a permanently low floor.

Irvine properties in default on $1,000,000+ mortgages

The following list of addresses are in default on mortgages over $1,000,000.

Address

Value

Loan Balance

SaleDate

Published Bid

59 GRANDVIEW $ 2,975,376 $ 3,350,000 6/9/2010 $ 3,542,938
65 GRANDVIEW $ 3,018,675 $ 3,556,567 5/28/2010 $ 3,351,639
1672 REYNOLDS AVE $ 1,924,306 $ 7,170,000 9/10/2010 $ 2,570,000
27 STARVIEW $ 2,149,100 $ 2,990,000 7/7/2010 $ 2,361,129
58 CEZANNE $ 1,339,060 $ 2,250,000 6/16/2010 $ 2,186,850
136 STARCREST $ 1,369,470 $ 3,900,000 7/19/2010 $ 2,119,577
31 VILLAGE WAY $ 1,842,061 $ 2,485,750 7/6/2010 $ 2,089,102
17801 CARTWRIGHT RD 250 $ 3,036,374 $ 3,487,500 6/10/2010 $ 1,981,419
8871 RESEARCH DR $ 2,788,321 $ 3,609,000 9/1/2010 $ 1,980,000
51 CEZANNE $ 1,549,068 $ 3,770,000 6/7/2010 $ 1,939,524
28 SYLVAN $ 1,739,418 $ 1,810,000 6/28/2010 $ 1,851,139
23 CLOUDS PT $ 1,617,945 $ 3,550,000 7/2/2010 $ 1,800,000
35 TRIPLE LEAF $ 1,128,734 $ 1,726,660 6/3/2010 $ 1,725,079
24 ROSE TRELLIS $ 1,212,019 $ 282,800 6/10/2010 $ 1,693,240
27 MOMENTO $ 1,794,521 $ 1,800,700 5/27/2010 $ 1,652,288
24 PISMO BCH $ 1,432,305 $ 1,700,000 5/27/2010 $ 1,644,278
23 SHADY LN $ 1,393,233 $ 1,990,000 7/28/2010 $ 1,600,000
33 TALL HEDGE $ 1,553,769 $ 2,836,709 6/3/2010 $ 1,563,247
29 ANTIQUE ROSE $ 1,127,091 $ 1,630,000 6/10/2010 $ 1,504,574
29 LILY POOL $ 1,218,079 $ 1,470,000 6/10/2010 $ 1,484,931
16500 ASTON $ 1,200,270 $ 2,916,000 8/13/2010 $ 1,458,000
11 GAVIOTA $ 1,520,671 $ 6,652,937 5/27/2010 $ 1,411,878
7 BUELLTON $ 1,179,546 $ 1,426,000 6/8/2010 $ 1,327,302
101 LATTICE $ 1,188,392 $ 1,104,000 6/10/2010 $ 1,322,836
24 TWIGGS $ 1,181,325 $ 1,529,800 6/1/2010 $ 1,301,968
3131 MICHELSON DR 1702 $ 1,276,361 $ 1,226,600 6/3/2010 $ 1,295,430
109 LATTICE $ 1,218,342 $ 1,282,500 5/28/2010 $ 1,270,512
20 ROSE TRELLIS $ 1,294,508 $ 1,883,023 6/16/2010 $ 1,267,500
24 ARBORWOOD $ 1,092,891 $ 1,428,000 6/18/2010 $ 1,228,000
22 FAITH $ 1,194,303 $ 2,650,000 6/4/2010 $ 1,223,705
40 DESERT WILLOW $ 964,519 $ 1,175,420 6/24/2010 $ 1,205,941
15 PASO ROBLES $ 1,219,922 $ 1,346,250 6/10/2010 $ 1,205,837
9 OLYMPUS $ 1,520,417 $ 1,200,000 7/10/2010 $ 1,200,000
103 RETREAT $ 1,200,302 $ 1,620,000 6/22/2010 $ 1,196,779
152 TAPESTRY $ 982,692 $ 956,250 6/14/2010 $ 1,183,656
23 WALNUT CRK $ 1,162,055 $ 1,247,467 6/9/2010 $ 1,153,285
39 CRIMSON ROSE $ 1,340,634 $ 1,760,000 6/2/2010 $ 1,089,990
28 CRIMSON ROSE $ 1,250,228 $ 1,530,000 5/27/2010 $ 1,088,739
147 TAPESTRY $ 1,183,862 $ 1,341,000 6/21/2010 $ 1,088,509
16480 BAKE PKWY $ 1,689,903 $ 1,946,700 6/30/2010 $ 1,081,500
5 BAYPORTE $ 1,060,316 $ 1,347,500 6/16/2010 $ 1,079,174
41 MOJAVE $ 1,248,973 $ 1,080,000 6/21/2010 $ 1,062,837
129 LATTICE $ 1,071,133 $ 1,000,000 6/10/2010 $ 1,062,797
29 LOOKOUT $ 1,248,257 $ 1,048,000 5/29/2010 $ 1,048,000
59 BAMBOO $ 857,115 $ 1,601,000 6/14/2010 $ 1,043,759
19 PETRIA $ 930,592 $ 1,080,000 6/7/2010 $ 1,034,881
8083 SCHOLARSHIP $ 1,313,197 $ 2,595,000 6/28/2010 $ 1,033,331
29 PASO ROBLES $ 1,395,677 $ 2,010,000 6/3/2010 $ 1,018,865
20 VILLAGER $ 1,018,786 $ 952,000 6/14/2010 $ 1,006,757
36 PRAIRIE $ 1,266,928 $ 1,401,486 6/22/2010 $ 1,000,000
20 TOPIARY $ 1,531,562 $ 1,704,347 7/29/2010 $ 999,950
12 GALAXY 24 $ 861,094 $ 1,062,000 6/11/2010 $ 988,749
20 BRIGADIER $ 1,824,777 $ 1,880,000 6/29/2010 $ 980,000
31 SHEPARD $ 1,148,118 $ 1,366,000 8/21/2010 $ 966,000
40 VACAVILLE $ 899,371 $ 1,289,880 7/16/2010 $ 960,000
13645 ALTON PKWY A $ 1,099,580 $ 2,047,000 5/27/2010 $ 899,679
18971 GLENMONT TER $ 1,064,859 $ 1,091,800 6/28/2010 $ 895,949
64 ROCKPORT $ 808,905 $ 1,026,000 6/2/2010 $ 872,698
2 HICKORY TREE LN $ 897,980 $ 1,102,900 6/10/2010 $ 863,428
5502 SIERRA ROJA RD $ 955,606 $ 1,375,250 6/2/2010 $ 818,490
6052 SIERRA SIENA RD $ 1,029,837 $ 1,000,800 6/10/2010 $ 801,982
46 WHITFORD $ 831,784 $ 1,016,000 7/24/2010 $ 791,000
17752 FITCH $ 2,752,146 $ 2,216,657 8/18/2010 $ 750,000
18 HIDDEN CRK $ 1,330,028 $ 1,911,641 7/20/2010 $ 200,000

This list barely scratches the surface on the problems stemming from the lack of a jumbo loan market. For example, only 6 homes in Irvine with an estimated value over the conforming limit of $729,750 went through foreclosure last month. There are 146 in pre-foreclosure or scheduled for auction. In Orange County, there are 2,046 in the foreclosure process over the conforming limit, and only 101 foreclosure sales.

Also, since banks know the jumbo market is hopeless, fewer of these homes have been served notice. The shadow inventory of squatters with huge loans is bigger than the banks are willing to face.

Shadow Inventory's Shadow

It isn't only the distress we see that feeds into the problems with housing. Visible inventory includes the properties on ForeclosureRadar.com on which there has been some filings. Shadow Inventory includes those properties where the owners are not making payments but the bank has not begun foreclosure proceedings. Shadow inventory's shadow includes all the Ponzis who are not currently behind on their mortgage payments but are completely dependant upon increasing debt in order to survive. The people in Shadow inventory's shadow living the life of a Ponzi will implode before this debacle is truly behind us.

Over the last few weeks, I have collected a few stories about Ponzis living in shadow inventory's shadow. The names and circumstances have been changed, but the essential facts of the following stories are true.

Property ladder to oblivion

One family lived in a 1,500 SF 3/2 in a comfortable area of Irvine. They HELOCed about $200,000 out of their property, but they still sold it in 2006 for a hefty profit and a check for $250,000 of remaining equity. They took this $250,000 and put it down on a $1,100,000 dream home. They now have an $800,000 interest-only mortgage. The husband is a sole breadwinner whose based salary is about $120,000 a year.

This family is treading water after borrowing 6.6 times their income. Unless or until house prices go back up and they are able to access HELOC money like they used to in their old house, they will not make it. In 2016, their $800,000 mortgage will amortize over 20 years, and their payment will go sky high. Of course, their plan is to refinance the $800,000 debt in 2016, probably with another interest-only loan. They cannot afford their house, but they pay the huge rent on money to stay there. They do not show up in statistics on shadow inventory, but they are doomed.

Baby on the way

One family bought a small home in a really expensive market in 2005. They put $100,000 down, and they have a $950,000 mortgage which is now underwater. The husbands job is secure, but the wife is pregnant and wants to quit work when the baby is born. She can't afford to. Because of their house loan, she must work to make ends meet. The HELOC money they were counting on to renovate the house and substitute for her wage income is not forthcoming. They are trapped and unhappy. They may not be doomed to lose the house, but keeping it is ruining their family life and future plans. They are very house poor.

Side business suffers

One family bought an ocean view property in 2004 for about $1,100,000. Two years later, they sink several hundred thousand into a renovation, and they refinance with a $1,400,000 Option ARM. The property would currently sell for about $1,000,000.

When they took out the Option ARM, the man had a base salary of $120,000 per year, and he was running a side business making about $100,000 — or so he said on his loan application. The side business dried up during the recession, so they have drained all savings and tapped their other credit lines to keep making the minimum payment on their Option ARM. The only way these people survive is another infusion of borrowed money or the side business coming back. Even then, their prospects are bleak. Their real hope was for the housing ATM machine.

I need that bonus

Many people spend like drunken sailors running up huge credit card bills and pay them off with yearly bonuses. Over the last two years, one family received no bonus which used to be almost 50% of the husbands take-home pay. The lack of a bonus did nothing to curb their spending. They are paying the bills on their $1,300,000 mansion, taking vacations, and generally continuing to spend in a conspicuous manner. So far they have managed on increasing credit card balances.

Perhaps they believe big bonuses are in the future, perhaps they think the housing ATM will save them, or perhaps they are simply committed to living as Ponzis until their creditors cut them off. Either way, it doesn't seem likely they will sustain ownership even when the bonus money comes in.

None of the people I described above appear on any measure of housing distress, but given their situations, most of them will not make in through the next five years in their homes. Financial distress will cause them to sell and move.

Who will take their place?

The Ponzis are far more common than frugal savers with huge down payments and high incomes. Heavy cash buyers are common in Irvine's market, not because there are so many of them, but because they are the only ones capable of paying our still inflated prices. Because there are more Ponzis than frugal replacements, there will be more Ponzi homes coming to market than the frugal buyers can absorb. Lenders know this. They are restricting inventory as long as they can hoping that somehow the Ponzis will get bailed out and the banks will have someone to sell their houses to. So far denial and inaction has worked out well for the banks — unless you count the loss of income from all those squatters….

Today's would-be millionaire couldn't cut it

The owner of today's featured property used his million dollar loan and a substantial down payment to acquire the property. Unfortunately, his reach exceeded his grasp.

Today's featured property was purchased on 11/16/2006 for $1,478,000. The first mortgage is $1,048,000 and the owner used a $430,000 down payment. The current asking price. would yield him about $180,000 out of the $430,000 he put down. I question whether he will get the asking price. Not much is selling at these price points.

Irvine Home Address … 29 LOOKOUT Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $1,300,000

Home Purchase Price … $1,478,000

Home Purchase Date …. 11/16/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(256,000)

Percent Change ………. -12.0%

Annual Appreciation … -3.4%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$1,300,000 ………. Asking Price

$260,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.94% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$1,040,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$267,342 ………. Income Requirement

$5,545 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$1127 ………. Property Tax

$450 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$108 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$105 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$7,335 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1468 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1264 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$497 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$163 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$5,263 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$13,000 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$13,000 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$10,400 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$260,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$296,400 ………. Total Cash Costs

$80,600 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$377,000 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 29 LOOKOUT Irvine, CA 92620

——————————————————————————

Beds: 6

Baths: 6 full 1 part baths

Home size: 3,500 sq ft

($371 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,300 sq ft

Year Built: 2007

Days on Market: 16

Listing Updated: 40318

MLS Number: P734262

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Woodbury

Tract: Wdmf

——————————————————————————

3,500 sq2 house with 6 bedrooms, 6 1/2 baths, marble floor, granite countertop and island, fully landscaped and hardscaped, gorgeous conditions, more than $100,000 upgrade w/ backyard barbecue island for family entertainment.

Do you know anyone living in shadow inventory's shadow?

Vacant Bank-Owned Properties Are Being Sold Into the Market Rally

The fix is in to stabilize prices through restricting supply. Will the cartel arrangement hold up and permit an orderly liquidation of REO without crashing prices?

14911 Sumac Ave   Irvine, CA 92606  kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 14911 SUMAC Ave Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price …… $719,000

{book1}

Where were you when I was burned and broken

While the days slipped by from my window watching

And where were you when I was hurt and I was helpless

Because the things you say and the things you do surround me

While you were hanging yourself on someone else's words

Dying to believe in what you heard

I was staring straight into the shining sun

Lost in thought and lost in time

While the seeds of life and the seeds of change were planted

Outside the rain fell dark and slow

While I pondered on this dangerous but irresistible pastime

I took a heavenly ride through our silence

I knew the moment had arrived

For killing the past and coming back to life

Pink Floyd — Coming Back To Life

Is the housing market coming back to life? Am I being foolishly cautious to believe the massive inventory of delinquent borrowers will be a problem for the market?

The fix is in

Whether through concerted effort, foreclosure moratoria, or a coincidental paralysing reaction to crashing prices, banks stopped processing foreclosures as borrowers went delinquent in mid 2008. By early 2009, banks stabilized prices by constricting supply through dis-approving short sales and allowing widespread squatting. The banking regulators who are supposed to watch over lender's non-performing loans are turning a blind eye and allowing the amend-pretend-extend dance to go on. As far as I can tell lenders are going to continue on this path for the foreseeable future.

Everyone in the homebulding and development industries has responded to the apparent stabilization to provide new product to the market. Houses are being built and sold, loans are being written, and people are going to work. I think that is great, but there is one big problem: distressed inventory.

What are we going to do with all those homes?

Whenever I attend a Building Industry Association meeting, I ask the same question, "What are we going to do with all those homes?" Nobody really knows the answer.

Everyone hopes the lenders can meter out the supply at a rate that allows some amount of new construction and doesn't crash prices. The lenders hope the same. The problem is the arrangement is a cartel, and each bank has incentive to cheat and liquidate its non-performing assets. Banks need that capital, and it is wasted while it is tied up in a squatter's loan or vacant property. The incentive to liquidate is stronger than the incentive to hold out for higher prices, particularly since liquidation of the cheaters leads to lower prices for those who hold on.

Imagine the thousands of properties in distress being held until there is sufficient price and volume for lenders to liquidate. This is overhead supply. Until the market absorbs these homes, prices are not going higher. Perhaps in the short term, the limited supply can move prices up, but eventually, lenders need to foreclose and liquidate otherwise they have purchased a large number of properties and given them to squatters.

Today's featured property

This property was originally purchased on 10/28/2005 for $795,000. The owner used $636,000 first mortgage, a $159,000 second mortgage, and a $0 down payment. He defaulted in late 2006, and the property was purchased by U S BANK NA, ; HOME EQUITY ASSET TRUST 2006-1HOME EQUIT, ; SELECT PORTFOLIO SERVICING on 05/22/2007.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 04/27/2007

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 01/25/2007

Document Type: Notice of Default

I first wrote about today's featured property in Pass the Knife from last July. Back then, the owner was asking $650,000 and couldn't get it. Now they believe the market has appreciated 10% and they can get $719,000.

14911 Sumac Ave   Irvine, CA 92606  kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 14911 SUMAC Ave Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price … $719,000

Home Purchase Price … $600,000

Home Purchase Date …. 5/14/2010

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $75,860

Percent Change ………. 19.8%

Annual Appreciation … 238.0%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$719,000 ………. Asking Price

$143,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.94% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$575,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$147,861 ………. Income Requirement

$3,067 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$623 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$60 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$42 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,792 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$748 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$699 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$275 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$90 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,710 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$7,190 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,190 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,752 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$143,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$163,932 ………. Total Cash Costs

$41,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$205,432 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 14911 SUMAC Ave Irvine, CA 92606

——————————————————————————

Beds: 5

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 2,350 sq ft

($306 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1972

Days on Market: 8

Listing Updated: 40312

MLS Number: S617168

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Tract: Cp

——————————————————————————

FAVORITE FLOORPLAN IN COLLEGE PARK WITH 5 BEDROOMS AND 2.5 BATHS .OVER 2 YEARS OLD PAINT IN AND OUT , RECESSED LIGHTING , NEW FLORRING , NEW GAS STOVE , SECTIONAL GARAGE DOOR , GRANITE COUNTERTOP , STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE , CELLING FAN . CLOSE TO SCHOOL, SHOPPING,PARK , ASS POOL , FWY. BEST PRICE FOR THIS SIZE OF HOUSE IN IRVINE .

FLORRING? CELLING? This listing agent has random double-letter disorder.

I love the abbrviation for "association." I typically add an OC to the end to form "assoc." Although, an OC ASS POOL might be nice too….

{book3}

Despite the threat of overhanging supply and uncertainty about what will happen with distressed inventory, builders are building and selling homes.

Building Is Booming in a City of Empty Houses

By DAVID STREITFELD Published: May 15, 2010

LAS VEGAS — In a plastic tent under a glorious desert sky, Richard Lee preached the gospel of the second chance.

The chance to make money on the next housing boom “is like it’s never been,” Mr. Lee, a real estate promoter, assured a crowd of agents, investors and bankers. “We’re going to come back like you’ve never seen us before.”

Home prices in Las Vegas are down by 60 percent from 2006 in one of the steepest descents in modern times. There are 9,517 spanking new houses sitting empty. An additional 5,600 homes were repossessed by lenders in the first three months of this year and could soon be for sale.

Yet builders here are putting up 1,100 homes, and they are frantically buying lots for even more.

We have bulldozed thousands of homes on paper by tieing them up with squatters or allowing them to stay empty. Jim Cramer was right about bulldozing significant areas of Riverside County. We have. We bulldozed houses on paper by pretending and acting as if the houses are not there. It is even worse in Las Vegas.

Las Vegas is trying to recover by building what it does not need. It is an unlikely pattern being repeated in many of the areas where the housing crash was most severe.

“There’s a surprising rebound in the hardest-hit markets,” said Brad Hunter, chief economist with the consultant Metrostudy. “People are buying again.” From the recession’s lows, construction has nearly doubled in Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tucson. It is up 74 percent in inland Southern California and soaring in Florida.

Some of the demand is coming from families that are getting shut out of the bidding for foreclosures by syndicates that pay in cash, and some is from investors who are back on the prowl.

This statement is accurate, but it fails to capture what is really happening. The demand is still very low. Total construction and sales are far below the lowest low experienced since WWII. The blue line in the chart below is single-family residential development and construction. The bottom of the trough of the early 90s would feel like a housing boom relative to current activity levels.

The recovery we are seeing in the new home construction market is completely a result of the tight constriction of resale real estate by the banks. The inventory sits over the market waiting for banks to do something. Right now, the banks are feeling rewarded by doing nothing; prices are going up, and on paper, they are doing much better. Of course, they eventually have to sell those homes, and the demand is not infinite. As they sell, either prices will go down or appreciation will be held in check for decades.

Land and labor costs have fallen significantly, so the newest homes are competitively priced. …

“We’re building them because we’re selling them,” Mr. Anderson said. “Our customers wouldn’t care if there were 50 homes in an established neighborhood of 1980 or 1990 vintage, all foreclosed, empty and for sale at $10,000 less. They want new. And what are we going to do, let someone else build it?”

Builders are suppliers who react to market conditions. Builders do not make a market, nor do they exercise much influence over it. If conditions are such that a profit can be made building homes, that is what builders are going to do.

All of this goes contrary to the conventional wisdom, which suggests an improved market for builders is years away. Nationwide, new home sales at the beginning of this year plunged to a level below any recorded since 1963, when the figures were first officially tabulated.

The entire building industry is on life support. The minimal amount of homes we are building right now isn't enough to sustain very many people. We had over-employment in the building industry during the bubble, but now employment is so low that many qualified and experienced workers are having to retrain themselves for other work. The small core of knowledgeable professionals that we will need when real demand returns to the housing market is barely getting by.

Simply put, the country already has too many houses, the legacy of wide-scale overbuilding during the boom. The Census Bureau says there are two million vacant homes for sale, about double the historical level. Fewer new households, moreover, are being formed as families double up for economic reasons, putting a further brake on demand.

… “Housing is construction. It’s tables. It’s paint. It’s couches. It’s toilets,” said Sally Taylor, a specialist in liquor and gambling establishments who attended the American West festivities. “If we build more houses, we’re creating more jobs.”

… Analysts have calculated that it could take as long as a decade for inventories to return to their precrash levels and for demand to once again exceed supply. That is a grim prospect for any owner who hopes to accrue equity through rising prices.

That is why buyers should never purchase because of dreams of appreciation riches. That is kool aid intoxication, and it will be revealed as the illusion it is at the worst possible time.

The California Economy Is Dependent Upon Ponzi Borrowers

After years of free HELOC money, our economy is not completely dependent upon Ponzi borrowers. Today's featured property was another spent by its owners who stimulated California's economy.

Irvine Home Address … 74 LINHAVEN Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price …… $710,000

{book1}

It's like you're a drug

It's like you're a demon I can't face down

It's like I'm stuck

It's like I'm running from you all the time

And I know I let you have all the power

It's like the only company I seek is misery all around

It's like you're a leech

Sucking the life from me

Kelly Clarkson — Addicted

Californians are addicted to borrowed money. We are stuck waiting for lenders to make us feel powerful again. Borrowed money is a vice provided by lenders who suck the life blood from our economy.

Yesterday we explored what it means to be a Ponzi, and today, we are going to look at some of the ramifications of widespread Ponzi borrowing.

Ponzi borrowing and HELOC Abuse

Most people fail to budget properly for unexpected expenses or expenses that do not occur monthly. When these expenses occur, most will borrow the money, often on credit cards. During the year, this debt will accumulate like tooth plaque, and at the end of the year, many debtors hope for a work bonus or a tax refund to clean the debt from their balance sheets. Homeowners, particularly in California, would go to the housing ATM and add to their mortgage to pay for these un-budgeted expenses of daily life.

The sad reality is that this method of Ponzi borrowing can work as long as (1) the amounts added to the home mortgage are less than the sustained rate of appreciation and (2) if the payments are still affordable with wage income. During the housing bubble, many borrowed much more than the sustained rate of appreciation and took out every penny as it accumulated. With the steadily falling interest rates of the last 30 years and the profusion of toxic financing, affordable payments were seldom a problem. Therefore, many people have become accustomed to Ponzi borrowing on the home ATM, and that source of borrowing is shut down for a while — probably for a very long time.

Personal Ponzi Schemes

First, let's review how personal Ponzi Schemes work:

HELOC

Examine the graphic above. The first column shows a graphical breakdown of the income of a typical homeowner. Total home related debt (including taxes, insurance, HOA and other monthly expenses) is limited to 28% of gross income. Consumer debt including all other debt service payments is limited to 8%. Taxes take up about 24% (depending on income and tax bracket), and the remaining 40% is disposable income to cover the other expenses of daily life.

The second column shows what happens as people start to stretch to buy a home in a financial mania (charts are below). The increasing home debt reduces the tax burden a little, but the increased consumer spending and home debt takes a big chunk out of disposable income. The recession of the early 90s lingered for so long here in California because the people who bought in the frenzy of the late 1980s found themselves with crushing debts and greatly reduced disposable income. Prior to the increase in housing debt, this disposable income would have been spent in the local economy; instead, this money was sent out of state to the creditor who made the loan.

The big financial innovation—if you want to call it that—of the Great Housing Bubble was the nearly unrestricted use of cash-out refinancing and HELOCs to tap into home price appreciation. The third column shows the impact this new source of credit had on personal income statements. HELOC money allowed people to pay off their consumer debt while only modestly increasing their home debt. Since this income was untaxed (borrowed money is not truly income), the extracted money was entirely converted to disposable income. This incredible influx of disposable income caused our economy to explode.

Unfortunately, as is documented in the post Our HELOC Economy, the loss of this HELOC income is having devastating effects on local tax revenues and our economy. When you examine the personal income statements of borrowers in column four, you see that home debt and consumer debt have now become so burdensome that there is no longer enough disposable income to cover life’s basic needs; borrowers are insolvent.

The only solution to the problem of borrower insolvency is a monumental restructuring of both home and consumer debt. Realistically, the only way this is going to occur is through foreclosure and bankruptcy. We are not going to re-inflate this Ponzi Scheme because when sustainable loan terms are applied to real incomes, people cannot raise bids to sustain or inflate home prices—even with 4.5% interest rates. Without home price appreciation and subsequent HELOC borrowing, the Ponzi Scheme does not work.

The implications of this are clear; we are going to experience an extended recession bordering on depression here in California that is going to linger for many, many years. During this extended crisis, a significant percentage of California homeowners are going to face foreclosure and personal bankruptcy.

Lending to Ponzis

Lenders may loan to Ponzis for a time, but eventually the losses mount, and lenders realize their folly and stop making Ponzi loans. That is the market mechanism in place right now. The credit crunch was a direct result of lenders realizing they were making Ponzi loans and abruptly stopping.

The market-only solution to keeping lenders from making dumb loans is working for the most part. The US Government in cahoots with the Federal Reserve has completely taken over mortgage finance because they are the only entities willing to underwrite loans. Borrowers who try to get a jumbo loan, a HELOC or a stand-alone second right now are shocked at the qualification standards and the high interest rate spreads. The lack of a jumbo market is also why lenders are not foreclosing on anything above the $729,750 conforming limit and thereby allowing a great deal of squatting.

The problem with the market-only solution is that the mechanism that inflated the housing bubble is still in place, and the market will likely inflate another bubble once lenders believe they have no risk. Borrowers and owners would be delighted to see the lure of HELOC riches prompt a rally in prices. Lenders would also be delighted as they could sell their garbage into the rally. Without some basic reforms, our market will become very volatile as changes in credit availability take prices up and down. The ongoing turmoil and the capricious nature of winners and losers in the real estate market would be very unsettling just as it has over the last several years.

Ponzi borrowing and loan amortization

In Conservative House Financing – Part 1, I wrote about the basic loan types in mortgage finance:

There are 3 main categories of loans: Conventional, Interest-Only, and Negative Amortization. The distinction between these loans is how the amount of principal is impacted by monthly payments. A Conventional mortgage includes some amount of principal in the payment in order to repay the original loan amount. The greater the amount of principal repaid, the quicker the loan is paid off. An Interest-Only loan does just what it describes; it only pays the interest. This loan does not pay back any of the principal, but it at least “treads water” and does not fall behind. The Negative Amortization loan is one in which the full amount of interest is not paid with each payment, and the unpaid interest gets added to the principal balance. Each month, the borrower is increasing the debt.

A conventionally amortized mortgage loan pays off the principal over time — sometimes over a very long time. The best form of mortgage finance is the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, but 30-year terms are common, and provide a reasonable balance between purchasing power and Time to Payoff. Japan experimented with 100-year loans as their housing bubble deflated. The marginal returns in the form of reduced payments get very small as the amortization length gets much over 30 years.

The interest-only loan is a Ponzi limit loan. This is the event horizon that leads to the singularity. Of course, the kool aid intoxicated think this loan is too conservative because it fails to capture and spend the inevitable and unending home price appreciation. The solution many fools employ is the interest-only loan in combination with a HELOC that can grow with appreciation. Once the cost of HELOC financing gets too high, the debt can be reconsolidated into a lower cost first mortgage or a stand-alone second. The trip to foreclosure and bankruptcy sounds very reasoned and reasonable, doesn't it?

The negative amortization loan (Option ARM) is the pinnacle of Ponzi financing. The Ponzi borrowing is directly built in to the loan itself. Borrowers are able to spend some of their appreciation each month through a payment subsidy built into the loan. Rather than combine an interest-only with a HELOC, the Option ARM indirectly builds the HELOC into it. As long as home prices go up faster than Option ARM loan balances, these loans successfully convert appreciation to income. Work of genius, when you think about it, except that the loan ignores the reality of Ponzi financing and the inevitable collapse that entails.

The larger impact of Ponzi borrowing

The cultural reliance on appreciation and Ponzi borrowing creates a number of disturbing conditions:

  1. Ponzis live a life of luxury that far exceeds their contribution, and responsible people pay for it.
  2. California's economy depends on borrowed money.
  3. The economic recovery depends on re-inflating the housing bubble and turning on the housing ATM.
  4. The collapse of the Ponzis will be a long-term drag on the economy.

Do you like paying the bills of the Ponzis? You are. If you are a responsible saver, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to take money from you and give it to banks. If that form of theft is not enough, the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low and steal from savers by devaluing the currency with inflation. One way or the other, the Federal Reserve is stealing from the responsible to pay for the irresponsible. If that wasn't enough, our own federal government is stealing from you with a variety of tax incentives and bogus loan modification programs to transfer the losses from banks to the taxpayer.

The dependency of California on Ponzi borrowing is evident. Our state budget is a Ponzi scheme imploding right now, but the real reason for the state budget problems isn't just Sacramento's inability to say no to special interest groups. The state budget is a wreck because tax revenues rely heavily on Ponzi borrowers spending borrowed money and circulating it through the economy.

How many people do you know that are borrowing from other sources until the housing ATM gets turned on? I will tackle this subject in more detail tomorrow, but for many Californians the end of the recession will not come when they find a job or get a raise, it will come when they get a new credit line or when house prices come back enough to allow them to get more HELOC money. Our state economy is on hold until HELOC money returns.

Since HELOC riches and ATM spending isn't coming back any time soon, our state economy will limp along with the Ponzis collapsing one at a time. With each Ponzi collapse, the money that used to go to debt service payments is freed up to circulate in the local economy. It is a slow and painful process, but weaning society off Ponzi borrowing is necessary to have a real economy based on wages and growth in productivity. Do any of you remember the lingering effects of the last bubble from 1993-1997? Unfortunately, we will probably take the short cut through Ponzi borrowing if given the chance.

Today's featured Ponzi borrower

  • Today's featured property was purchased on 11/13/1999 for $485,000. My records say the owners used a $502,000 first mortgage, but that is unlikely. It is more likely they used a $402,000 first mortgage and a $83,000 down payment.
  • On 5/13/2003 they opened a HELOC for $63,400
  • On 1/26/2004 they got a HELOC for $100,000.
  • On 2/1/2005 they refinanced with a $634,500 Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate.
  • On 3/23/2005 they obtained a $80,000 HELOC.
  • On 8/10/2005 they got a HELOC for $100,000.
  • On 11/3/2006 they refinanced with a $688,000 first mortgage and a $85,000 HELOC from Wells Fargo. Since Wells owns both mortgages, they are in no hurry to foreclose on this owner and wipe out their HELOC. Look for this property to be in the amend-pretend-extend dance forever.
  • Total property debt is $773,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $484,227 plus whatever down payment they put into the property.
  • Total squatting is at least 5 months.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 04/15/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

This couple spent almost half a million dollars in a four-year span. That is a one-family stimulus plan. If they were an isolated case, it may be a titillating story, but I have profiled hundreds of these here in Irvine. It is a widespread practice.

California implicitly endorses Ponzi finance

Since we have done nothing in California to reform mortgage finance, we are implicitly saying this is acceptable behavior. Apparently, we want people to do this. It stimulates the economy, and since the losses are passed on to investors around the world, California gets all of the benefit and endures only a fraction of the pain. And now that the US taxpayer is covering all future losses either through the GSEs or FHA, there is no reason at all for California to do anything other than inflate another housing bubble.

Truth be told, nobody in power to do anything in California sees HELOC abuse as a problem. It is spending. It stimulates the California economy, and fills the State's coffers with tax revenues. Few in Sacramento seem to care about the stability of the tax stream, so we will continue on this cycle of boom and bust completely dependent upon creditors. For all its economic prowess, California is the weakest state in the nation. Financially, everything here is an illusion.

What will happen to government entitlements and the individual entitlements of loan owners everywhere should lenders realize they are supporting a entire state of Ponzis? They might just cut us off.

I wish they would. California would be a much better place.

Irvine Home Address … 74 LINHAVEN Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price … $710,000

Home Purchase Price … $485,000

Home Purchase Date …. 11/13/1999

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $182,400

Percent Change ………. 46.4%

Annual Appreciation … 4.3%

Cost of Ownership

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$710,000 ………. Asking Price

$142,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.94% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$568,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$146,010 ………. Income Requirement

$3,028 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$615 ………. Property Tax

$125 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$59 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$200 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

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$4,028 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$738 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$690 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$271 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$89 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

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$2,959 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$7,100 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,100 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,680 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$142,000 ………. Down Payment

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$161,880 ………. Total Cash Costs

$45,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$207,180 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 74 LINHAVEN Irvine, CA 92602

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Beds: 4

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 2,478 sq ft

($287 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 6,937 sq ft

Year Built: 1999

Days on Market: 14

Listing Updated: 40315

MLS Number: S616662

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: West Irvine

Tract: Othr

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This property is in backup or contingent offer status.

Highly upgraded home in West Irvine! Very private yard, extra long driveway, Granite countertops.

In case you missed it a few weeks ago, not all lenders are anxious to loan money to the Ponzis….