Is the housing market ready to survive without government props and supports? We are about to find out.
Irvine Home Address … 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606
Resale Home Price …… $699,000
{book1}
Don't you know me I'm the boy next door
The one you find so easy to ignore
Is that what I was fighting for?
Walking on a thin line
Straight off the front line
Labeled as freaks loose on the streets of the city
Walking on a thin line
Angry all the time
Take a look at my face, see what it's doing to me
Huey Lewis and the News — Walking on a Thin Line
To all of you who served in the armed forces: thank you. Your sacrifice does not go unnoticed.
I hope everyone is enjoying this Memorial Day holiday.
And now, back to real estate…
The bust's second act
May 25th 2010, 15:12 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
FOR a brief moment last fall, it looked as though the American housing sector might not be the persistent economic drag economists had feared. Home prices and sales leveled off and began climbing. Construction did the same. In the third and fourth quarter of last year, residential investment was a minor but positive contributor to American output growth. Buoyed by a generous homebuyer tax credit and mortgage rates held down by Federal Reserve purchases, housing markets seem poised for stability, if not a new boom in activity.
But the good times haven't lasted. Construction and builder confidence have weakened once again. The latest data on existing home sales show a spike in activity and the best April performance since 2006. But this was almost certainly due to the looming end of the federal tax credit. Sales also rose and spiked before and immediately after the previous deadline, last fall, only to decline again through the winter. More worrying still, the previous spike in sales coincided with a decline in housing inventory. This time, inventories have risen dramatically. Even as the end of government incentive programmes lead buyers to exit the market, the number of homes for sale will have grown significantly.
And so it's not surprising that prices have also been falling again. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, home prices declined 1.9% from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010. Prices were up 0.3% in March, according to the FHFA data, but the general trend is not encouraging. The latest Case-Shiller home price figures are similarly disappointing. Both of the Case-Shiller national indexes had declined for six consecutive months, through March. Only two of the individual markets, San Diego and San Francisco, saw a rise in home values in the first quarter. Total declines from last fall's price peak haven't been catastrophic. But they are troubling. Nearly a quarter of all mortgage borrowers remain underwater on their home loans. In the first quarter, the share of prime loans that were delinquent or in foreclosure rose sharply. That's bad for housing inventory, bad for home prices, and bad for the residential investment outlook.
These trends are the more worrisome given the end of the homebuyer tax credit and of Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Just this week, the head of the Federal Housing Administration declared that, "This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government…having FHA do this much volume is a sign of a very sick system.” The federal government may come to regret its decision to focus on measures aimed at encouraging sales, rather than on efforts to deal with negative homeowner equity. The latter issue has made for a steady-stream of foreclosed-upon housing inventory, too substantial to be absorbed by new buyers. And so with government measures winding down, the housing bust is free to carry on as before.
It is unlikely (though not impossible) that prices will plummet once more; price declines are likely to be small relative to those experienced in 2008 and 2009. But small declines are enough to do damage. Four years after the housing boom reached its apex and the bust began, and end to the mess remains just out of reach.
Delaying the decline
If justice delayed is justice denied, what is a market bust delayed? For as ominous as the signs are for our market, prices locally will likely continue to rise for the near term. Lenders have constricted inventory by failing to approve short sales and failing to foreclose on delinqent borrowers. With interest rates below 5% again, payment affordability is good. Until more product is released to the market or interest rates go up, prices will hold steady or rise. Unless lenders consider squatting a permanent solution to the problem, this product will come to the market, and it will impact pricing. it is only a matter of time.
Auction with equity
Today's featured property is a rarity in the trustee sale market since the crash: and equity owner who did not sell prior to auction.
The property was purchased on 4/15/2003 for $490,000. The owner used a $392,000 first mortgage and a $98,000 down payment. On 1/13/2005 he opened a $100,000 HELOC, but there is no indication that he used it. Then he defaulted:
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 05/26/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/18/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default
I looks like they gave him about nine months after the NOT was filed before they actually went to auction. It isn't known why the owner did not sell and obtain his equity during that time.
The opening bid at auction was about $416,833.94. It was quickly bid up to $596,000. It is being flipped for a quick profit.
Irvine Home Address … 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606
Resale Home Price … $699,000
Home Purchase Price … $596,000
Home Purchase Date …. 3/16/2010
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $61,060
Percent Change ………. 17.3%
Annual Appreciation … 65.5%
Cost of Ownership
————————————————-
$699,000 ………. Asking Price
$139,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.87% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$559,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$142,600 ………. Income Requirement
$2,958 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$606 ………. Property Tax
$225 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$58 ………. Homeowners Insurance
$151 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$3,998 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$719 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$688 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$262 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$87 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$2,940 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$6,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$6,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$5,592 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$139,800 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$159,372 ………. Total Cash Costs
$45,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$204,372 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 2 SANTA LUZIA AISLE Irvine, CA 92606
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Beds: 3
Baths: 2 full 1 part baths
Home size: 1,678 sq ft
($417 / sq ft)
Lot Size: 3,161 sq ft
Year Built: 1996
Days on Market: 40
Listing Updated: 40289
MLS Number: S614144
Property Type: Single Family, Residential
Community: Westpark
Tract: Rave
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Gorgeous Home in Westpark. Upgraded Marble in entrance. Walking distance to school & park. Custom Window Covering. Mirrored walk-in closet door. Cathedral-vaulted ceilings. New Paint. Move-in ready.
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I will not be participating in the comments today. It is my tenth wedding anniversary, and I will be be spending the day out with my family.
Ten years in, and I love my wife more than the day we were married. I am looking forward to the next ten and many more.