Author Archives: IrvineRenter

Another One Bites the Dust

How do you think I’m going to get along

Without you when you’re gone

You took me for everything that I had

And kicked me out on my own

Are you happy are you satisfied?

How long can you stand the heat

Out of the doorway the bullets rip

To the sound of the beat look out

Another one bites the dust

Another one bites the dust

And another one gone and another one gone

Another one bites the dust hey

Hey I’m gonna get you too

Another one bites the dust

Another One Bites the Dust — Queen

Link to Music Video

7 Hawkcreek Front7 Hawkcreek Kitchen

Asking Price: $695,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $173,750

Downpayment Needed: $139,000

Purchase Price: $730,000

Purchase Date: 7/9/2005

Address: 7 Hawkcreek, Irvine, CA 92618

1st Loan $584,000

2nd Mtg. $146,000

Downpayment $0

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,750

$/Sq. Ft.: $397

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Mediterranean

Year Built: 2001

Stories: Three or More LevelsRollback

View(s): Hills

Area: Oak Creek

County: Orange

MLS#: P603968

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day

New Listing (24 hours)

From Redfin, “ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS DETACHED HOME IN GATED OAK CREEK FEATURES: 3 FULL BEDROOMS & 3 BATHS, SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN WITH MAIN FLOOR BEDROOM & BATH, LIVING ROOM W/ FIREPLACE, LIGHT & BRIGHT KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR, FORMAL DINING ROOM, MASTER BEDROOM WITH RETREAT ON TOP FLOOR WITH BEAUTIFUL PARK & HILL VIEW, LONG DRIVEWAY WITH 2-CAR ATTACHED GARAGE! UPGRADES INCLUDE HARDWOOD FLOORS, DESIGNER PAINT, NEUTRAL CARPET, AND CERAMIC TILE. ASSOC. POOL, CLUBHOUSE, TENNIS COURT – A MUST SEE!”

THE CAPS LOCK ATTACK. Am I the only one who finds that painful to read?

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I know it is hard to believe, but I do not set out to find 100% financing deals gone bad. Lately, almost all of the properties up for sale as a short sale are 100% financing. That really should not be terribly surprising. Which homeowners have the least holding power? Those who bought with someone else’s money.

If this property sells for asking price, the owner stands to lose $0, and the bank stands to lose $76,700 assuming a 6% commission.

Are these posts getting redundant? Well, so is the market. Loser after loser after loser… Another One Bites the Dust.

The Renting Stigma

Don’t waste your time on jealousy;

sometimes you’re ahead,

sometimes you’re behind.

The race is long, and in the end,

it’s only with yourself.

Everyone’s Free — Baz Luhrmann

Link to Music Video

IrvineRenter

I have ranted on numerous occasions on this blog about people’s desires to feel superior to their fellow man. I find it to be the least desirable feature of California’s culture. This need people have to raise their low self-esteem at the expense of other people is part of the impetus behind my posts on The Grand Illusion and The Reservoir of Schadenfreude. Releasing the anger caused by these interactions is part of the energy I find for writing on this blog. Today I want to address one of these California traditions and examine why homeowners feel superior to renters and see if there is any validity to these feelings.

Any group that feels superior to another group can live with their happy delusions forever. Every religious zealot or racial bigot carries a false belief of superiority.Cartoon Cow We can all laugh at them and let them be (assuming the “superior” group is not violent.) If those placed in the inferior position do not share the feelings of inferiority, the “inferior” group is not harmed — their energy is not stolen. It is when this latter group accepts and believes the feelings of inferiority that harm is done. To put it in terms of the housing market, homeowners can feel they are superior if they want to, but it is only when renters believe it that renters are harmed. Other than than the need to prop up a weak ego, why would a homeowner feel superior to a renter?

There was a time when home ownership was obtainable only by people of character. You knew if you met a homeowner, they went through the rite of passage necessary to achieve that status. Demonstrating the character necessary to become a homeowner used to be a good reason to respect someone — not anymore. I wrote in the post, Brio New World, “Smiley FacePrevious generations had a formula for a “normal,” happy life. You used to save your money until you had a 20% downpayment, then you bought a house, and if you had increases in income, you could move up to a nicer place. Home ownership was a symbol of success. It proved you could save to reach a goal; it proved you were responsible; it made you happy. It was also a ticket to financial security as your home equity would become a savings account you could use to fund your retirement when you downsized to smaller accommodations. These were the rules of old.

The lending industry changed all of that. They eliminated all measures of responsibility including honesty with “liar loans,” integrity with low FICO scores, and accountability with 100% financing. When homes can be purchased by people who lie, cheat and steal, the prestige of home ownership is diminished — no make that eliminated. Home ownership no longer symbolizes sacrifice and success, instead it now is synonymous with greed and gambling in the commodities market. Welcome to our Brave New World.”

It reminds me of fashion fads. When a new fashion comes out, good-looking people buy the fashion, and it becomes popular. FashionAs long as the fashion is the exclusive purview of good-looking people, the fad will remain popular. Eventually, the not-so-good-looking who want to join the club purchase the fashion, and it goes out of style. When people who do not possess the attributes of the club they are trying to join are given access, the prestige of the club is immediately diminished. As Groucho Marx said, “I don’t want to belong to any club that will accept me as a member.”

Many homeowners are still living with the belief they are superior and they are members of an exclusive club. They turned a blind eye to the not-so-desirable element that was admitted to their exclusive club during the rally. Why would they care when admitting these people made them huge amounts of phantom equity?

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However, the fact remains, there are a great many “homeowners” who are not financially responsible, they do not know how to save, and they do not know what it means to sacrifice. These late entrants to the housing club are now defaulting in record numbers. They aspire to the respect homeowners were given in the past; they desperately want to look down on their renting acquaintances with that feeling of moral superiority of generations past; however, they just don’t possess the attributes which made homeowners a group to respect. The presence of these interlopers has made home ownership something to be ashamed of not something to be aspired to.

Foreclosure

Flushing these interlopers out of the system is going to be painful. House prices are going to decline to pre-bubble levels when the fundamentals make sense again. It will be as if the bubble never happened. Homeowners who survive will be left with lingering memories of what their houses were temporarily selling for during the bubble. Those who are not qualified to be homeowners will be forced to rent again after the foreclosure. They will end up in the “renting class” all over again.

When this time comes, many “bitter renters” who sat out the rally and subsequent crash with money in the bank will step in to save the day. After the painful purge, the prestige of home ownership will be restored, as only owners will be the financially prudent who can sacrifice and save money — the attributes of respect formerly associated with home ownership. These are the times I look forward to. The next time a homeowner denegrates a “bitter renter,” I hope they realize these are the people who will step up and restore the prestige of home ownership when the time is right.

Irvine Median Home Price History

I thought everyone might find this data interesting.

1988 $216,464

1989 $237,410

1990 $239,024

1991 $242,877

1992 $237,451

1993 $230,598

1994 $228,529

1995 $229,959

1996 $246,865

1997 $245,437

1998 $263,172

1999 $278,148

2000 $308,089

2001 $334,741

2002 $379,852

2003 $461,888

2004 $609,397

2005 $635,675

2006 $722,928

2007 $665,807

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

Prev. 4 weeks

change

 from ’06

Prev. 4 weeks

change

from ’06

92602

$650,000

-15.5%

20

-28.6%

92603

$943,000

-3.2%

20

-42.9%

92604

$581,000

-13.9%

18

-33.3%

92606

$735,000

2.4%

15

25.0%

92612

$695,000

12.1%

21

-12.5%

92614

$611,500

11.2%

21

-16.0%

92618

$525,000

-2.2%

19

111.1%

92620

$762,500

-12.2%

30

-50.0%

Has IHB Impacted the Market?

I’ve got the power hey yeah heh

I’ve got the power

Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh yeah-eah-eah-eah-eah-eah

I’ve got the power

Oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh-oh yeah-eah-eah-eah-eah-eah

Gettin’ kinda heavy

The Power – Snap!

Link to Music Video

As you might have surmised, the real estate community is not thrilled with the writings of yours truly and the exchange of accurate, un-bullish information at this blog. Realtors in particular are accustomed to controlling the information regarding real estate, and media outlets like this blog are a threat to their monopoly.

They even have the audacity to criticize anyone who broadcasts a negative truth as if the dissemination of information is the problem and not the information itself. After we published Irvine Realtor Ratings 7-8-2007 the realtors pressured OC Home Review to stop giving the general public access to the information we used in our report. Apparently incompetence and poor performance are OK with the real estate community. It is all part of the old game of blame the media.

Does the real estate community have anything to worry about? Is it possible for the Irvine Housing Blog to have an impact on the housing market?

It Didn't Work Out

Should have been different but

It wasn’t different, was

Same old story, dear john, and so long

Should have fit like a glove

Should have fit like a ring

Like a diamond ring

A token of true love

Should have all worked out

But it didn’t

There’s Your Trouble — Dixie Chicks

Link to Music Video

The rally was supposed to be different this time, wasn’t it? People say it every time, but it never is. Today’s property was purchased during the peak of the frenzy to buy real estate. It should have been a ticket to riches; it should have all worked out, but it didn’t…

73 Chula VIsta Front 73 Chula Vista Kitchen

Asking Price: $649,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $162,250

Downpayment Needed: $129,800

Purchase Price: $685,000

Purchase Date: 6/22/2005

Address: 73 Chula Vista, Irvine, CA 92602

1st Loan $547,920

2nd Mtg. $136,980

Downpayment $100

Beds: 3

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 1,820

$/Sq. Ft.: $357

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Other

Year Built: 2002

Stories: Two Levels

View(s): Has View

Area: Northpark

County: Orange

MLS#: M107208

Status: Active

On Redfin: 91 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Great Opportunity! Highly Upgraded WIth A View!!!! Short Sale!!! Must Go Fast!!! Priced Below Market Value For Quick Sale!!! Present All Offers!!!”

Enough with the exclamation points. Do realtors realize how incredibly stupid they look when they write like that? My guess is no!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What Is With The Title Case?

Must be written for the ADHD buyer. Each sentence has between 2 and 7 words.

That description is painful to my eyes. If realtors are trying to stand out in the crowd with their descriptions, they are succeeding. They stand out as being terrible.

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If this seller gets their asking price — which seems unlikely after more than 90 days on the market — they stand to lose $74,940 after a 6% commission. Of course, the seller is only losing $100, and the bank will lose $74,840. Yet another 100% financing deal gone bad.

I know I am flagellating the equine which has already perished, but 100% financing is hastening the decline of prices. These borrowers have no holding power. These are gamblers who saw an opportunity to make huge sums with no risk, and they acted on it. How many of these properties does it take to cause prices to plummet? How many more of these time bombs are awaiting detonation? If there is any one factor which has the potential to greatly increase the rate of price decent, it is 100% financing deals.

Works for me. I would be happy to buy sooner rather than later…

Does anybody really know what time it is? Sometimes I wonder if I have too much time on my hands.

Another week has passed at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come join us next week as we continue to chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

🙂

Circle of Hell