Author Archives: IrvineRenter

House Price to Income

This is what people are referring to when they say prices revert to the mean. You can clearly see the bubble of the late 80s and the price deflation that followed. You can also get a sense of the magnitude of our current bubble.

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Just for fun today, I want to share a couple of items with your today. First is an email I was forwarded by a reader. It shows the desperation of realtors to find knife catchers, and their arguments are completely refuted by the chart above…

This was an interesting blog I found that I wanted to share with you……………

Here is what the thought is of todya’s buyers market…

There will always be a stand off between buyers & sellers, in a buyers market. Sellers eventually give up some in but not nearly as much as ALL of the buyers sitting on the fence would like. This explains why the slowdown of RE in the early 80’s prices NEVER reverted to the 70’s levels. Then the next RE slowdown occurred in the 90’s and once again prices never did return to the 80’s levels. And in the current slowdown in prices, if histroy repets itself, should NEVER drop back to their 1990’s levels

In the end it is being said that the market will bottom out in 2008 & interest rates will drop to historical lows. (we are almost there now!) 2008 will prove to be the BEST time to buy. BUT, very few buyers will have the COURAGE to take the plunge until they know for a fact the bottomed out! UNFORTUNATELY, nobody rings the bell at the bottom, instead buyers must wait for wait for signs that the market has officially improved,when all the buyers get off the and buy. The conditions will not be prime at that point. It goes on to say that the prime time to buy will be in 2008, with many choices, GREAT opportunities, pressure on prices the absolute best interest rates and the knowledge that in time , the market will hit higher highs again, than those of 2006.

Your Realtor who put your name in the “Home Buyers Scouting Report” can help guide you to create wealth in this market for the long term! Using this system to shop and tracking those properties in your notebook that you like will give you knowledge to have them negotiate the best deal possible.

Have an Amazing and profitable 2008!

Indy Mac Bank & the Home Team Phil, Ron,& Steve are here for you as well!

The Home Team

Office Phone: 562 988-1774

Fax: 866 451-9550

Steve x226: Phil x273

Ron x221:

Email

Indymac Bank

View my Video message

I debated to myself whether or not to include the links and the pictures above. Is this free advertising for them, or is it over-the-top public humiliation? I will leave that judgment to all of you.

How do you like the varied use of fonts, font sizes, bold face and random CAPS LOCK?

It does get worse though, below is quite possibly the worst description in the MLS:

Price: $1,656,888

105 CAPEBERRY

Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 4
Baths: 4.5
Sq. Ft.: 3,150
$/Sq. Ft.: $526
Lot Size: 6,800 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Contemporary/Modern
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): City Lights
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: S515386
Status: Active
On Redfin: 26 days

* * LARGE LOT ON VIEW SIDE IN QUIL HILL OF CHANTILLTY TRACT. * * 4BED, 4.5BATH, EACH BEDROOM WITH BATH, * * HUGE FAMILY ROOM WITH /FIRE PLACE, * * FORMAL DINING ROOM WITH SIDE YARD. * * KITCHEN COUNTER TOP IS GRANITE. * * STAINLESS STEEL APPLANCES, DOUBLE OVEN, * * BUILD-IN STAINLESS REFRIGERATOR, * * GRANITE TILE FLOOR IN ENTRANCE AREA, HALLWAY, KITCHEN & ALL BATHROOM. * * MASTER BATH ROOM OF SINK COUNTER TOP IS BUTIFULLY GRANITE, MASTER BEDROOM WITH BALOCONY TO LOOK PANORAMIC VIEW, * * LAUNTRY ROOM IN 2ND FLOOR WITH MATAG WASHER & DRYER. * * HUGE BACK YARD WITH A BIG SIZE OF BUILD-IN BBQ, 3 PATIOES AND A WATER FALL. * * ALARM SYSTEM. * * NEXT TO CUL-DE-SAC. * * COUMMUNITY POOL, TENNIS COURT, CLUB HOUSE. * * CLOSE TO PARK, SCHOOL, SHAPPING PLAZA, FREE WAY.

How many errors can you count?

Duet ** Update 1 **

This was first posted on September 11, 2007. Now our desperate sellers are considering becoming floplords. They haven’t moved much on the price, but now they are offering the unit for rent at $2,395. If this is a fair rental rate (it probably is), then the property is worth about $382,300 with a gross rent multiplier of 160. The rent finance value would be $378,914 assuming a 6.5% interest rate. Basically, this unit is still overpriced by about $200,000. Perhaps they can hold on until about 2025 when a rent of $3,620 will justify their asking price.

You got to keep them separated

Come Out And Play — The Offspring

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Have you ever stopped to contemplate why a detached home of similar size and character sells for a significant premium over attached product? It isn’t just the noise. In my opinion, there is a deeper psychological issue in play here. There is something about being able to clearly identify a specific object as “mine,” that you cannot obtain from an attached condo. Intellectually, you might know there are property lines at the walls, but when you look at an attached condo, you see one massive building you only own a part of. It is not as emotionally satisfying.

Today’s property is a detached condo. This kind of product obtains the highest possible density in a detached format. There are versions that get higher density than the property shown, but make no mistake, these properties are tightly packed.

40 Duet Kitchen

New Asking Price: $579,000

Old Asking Price: $589,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $147,250

Downpayment Needed: $117,800

Purchase Price: $634,000

Purchase Date: 9/25/2006

Address: 40 Duet, Irvine, CA 92603

1st Loan $507,200
Downpayment $126,800

Beds: 2
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 1,145
$/Sq. Ft.: $514
Lot Size: –
Type: CondominiumRollback
Style: French
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: S504277
Status: Active
On Redfin: 4 days

From Redfin, “QUAIL HILL BEAUTY IS TOP OF THE LINE!! If your clients are looking for style, here it is. Two SEPARATE MASTERS plus COMPUTER NICHE and roomy PRIVATE stone PATIO create a perfect retreat from the world. Walk to Starbucks, market, shops, three pools, tennis, parks, even a GYM. Tucked away just outside the gates to Shady Canyon and near the new Kaiser hospital, all major highways and nearby Laguna Canyon, the BEACH is just a latte away. Look at pix. This place has CLASS!”

Intermittent CAP lock PROBLEM…

Notice how roomy the roomy patio is? I guess if you get a 12′ x 12′ exterior space these days that is spacious. Sitting in a cavern surrounded by two story walls isn’t my ideal retreat from the world.

What are pix? Is it classier to say pix or pictures?

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Do you think many families with household incomes close to $150,000 that have $117,800 in the bank will want to live in a cramped 2/2? IMO, this is the kind of property someone making close to the median income should be able to afford. You could probably rent this place for $2,400 to a stable renter, so the gross rent multiplier of 160 puts the value at $384,000 for an owner occupant. The income requirement would be $96,000.

Just for the record, this was not a particularly good investment. After one year of ownership, if the seller gets his asking price and pays a 6% commission, he stands to lose $80,340.

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Since this post was on Duet, I thought I would share with you what is, in my opinion, one of the finest guitar duets ever performed: Boston — Hitch a Ride. The duet starts 2:30 into the video.

Link to Studio Version

I didn’t know Brad Delp died this year. πŸ™

Boston

Day is night in new york city
Smoke, like water, runs inside
Steel idle trees to pity
Every living things thats died

Gonna hitch a ride
Head for the other side
Leave it all behind
Never change my mind
Gonna sail away
Sun lights another day
Freedom on my mind
Carry me away for the last time
Oh yeah

Life is like the coldest winter
People freeze the tears I cry
Words of hail their minds are into
Ive got to crack this ice and fly

Gonna hitch a ride
Head for the other side
Leave it all behind
Never change my mind
Gonna sail away
Sun lights another day
Freedom on my mind
Carry me away for the last time
Oh yeah

Carnage

Trapped in purgatory

A lifeless object, alive

Awaiting reprisal

Death will be their acquisition

The sky is turning red

Return to power draws near

Fall into me, the sky’s crimson tears

Abolish the rules made of stone

Raining Blood — Slayer

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Trapped in the purgatory of their home, awaiting repossession, the slow death of bank acquisition. The sky is falling; it is raining blood; the return to renting is near.

Hell

21 Carriage Front21 Carriage Kitchen

Asking Price: $695,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $173,750

Downpayment Needed: $139,000

Purchase Price: $778,000

Purchase Date: 7/28/2005

Address: 21 Carriage, Irvine, CA 92602

First Mortgage $622,400Short Sale

Second Mortgage $150,000

Downpayment $5,600

Beds: 4
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,250
$/Sq. Ft.: $309
Lot Size:
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Traditional
Year Built: 1998
Stories: Two Levels
Area: West Irvine
County: Orange
MLS#: P615321
Status: Active
On Redfin: 11 days

Quality shows throughout in this beautiful Fieldstone home. The great functional kitchen with walk-in pantry and glistening black granite on counters and center island opens into a huge family room with fireplace, and French doors lead into the broad backyard. Off the vast master bedroom is a bath suite with separate tub and shower and giant walk-in closet. Upstairs are three more roomy bedrooms and even a walk-in linen closet. Myford Elementary and Pioneer Middle are both California Distinguished Schools and this beautiful, nearly new community has NO association dues!

That is a well-written MLS description.

Do you see how the “r” and the “i” run together to turn carriage into carnage?

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How much will the lenders lose today? Well, assuming a 6% commission, the total loss on the property will be $124,700. The people who have been renting from the bank — sorry, the owners — will lose $5,600. The lender will lose $119,100. This gets worse. There is a HELOC for $192,500 issued on 3-8-2007. I have no idea how much if any of this money has been borrowed. If the owners were smart, they would take it all out and hide the cash somewhere. Of course, a HELOC is a recourse loan, and they would still be required to pay it back, but if it is already borrowed and spent…

There has been plenty of carnage in our real estate market, and if you are in to that sort of thing, there will be plenty more as Armageddon approaches. The God of bear markets is hungry, and he is consuming everyone in his path. He gives new meaning to “Credit Crunch.”

Carnage

Come back next week as we continue chronicling β€˜the seventh circle of real estate hell.’

Lonetree

The heart is a bloom

Shoots up through the stony ground

There’s no room

No space to rent in this town

You’re out of luck

And the reason that you had to care

The traffic is stuck

And you’re not moving anywhere

Beautiful Day – U2

We are running out of land. There’s no room, no space to rent in this town. You’re priced out forever, you’re out of luck — or so you thought. The market is stuck and houses are not moving. Don’t worry, it’s a beautiful day…

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When Zovall first started this blog, he profiled many attempted flips. As 2006 gave way to 2007, there were fewer and fewer people making the attempt. Today, we have one complete with a WTF asking price. But what do we know. The seller is a realtor, and realtors know more about housing than we ever will…

211 Lonetree Front211 Lonetree Kitchen

Asking Price: $729,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $182,250

Downpayment Needed: $145,800

Purchase Price: $639,000

Purchase Date: 1/17/2007

Address: 211 Lonetree, Irvine, CA 92603

First Mortgage $510,900WTF

Downpayment $128,100

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,500

$/Sq. Ft.: $486

Lot Size: 1 sq. ft.

Type: CondominiumKnife Catcher Award

Year Built: 2004

Stories: Three or More Levels

View(s): City Lights, Hills, Mountain, Has View

Area: Turtle Ridge

County: Orange

MLS#: L25056

Status: Active

On Redfin: 18 days

From Redfin, “Beautiful Dramtic Corner Town Home! No One Lives Below or Above, Double High Ceiling! Lots of Windows, Light, Warm Open Floor Plan, Highly Upgraded, Gorgeous Hardwood & Slate Floors & Seagrass Carpet, Slate Fireplace Surround, Designer Paints, Fabulous Designer Kitchen, Stainless Kitchen Aid Appliances, Concrete Counters! Loft Landing Office Area With Mountain, City Lights View. Master Suite With Walk In Closet Wth Mirrored Door. Enchanting Ceiling Fan, High Ceiling Master Bath. Covered Patio Off The Living Room. Laundry Room, Double Car Attached Garage with Built in Closets( Not Tandem) Community Pool, Spa, BBQ. Across Street, Park with Tennis Courts, Many Sports Fields and Activities.”

What Is The Deal With Title Case Writing? I guess it is more Dramtic.

What is Seagrass Carpet? Do you eat it, mow it, or smoke it?

Concrete Counters? Do you prepare your food on the sidewalk?

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Kool Aid Man

I guess we should not be too surprised. Turtle Ridge is the last place in Irvine where the kool aid is free flowing. Apparently, this seller has not seen the recent developments in Newport Coast. The high end is not immune, and people are simply not willing to pay ridiculous prices for Irvine tract homes. This seller wants over $700K for a 2 bedroom condo. WTF! I guess it is under $500 / SF, so it must be a bargain, right? If she gets her sales price and pays a 3% commission (she would make the other 3% as listing agent), she stands to make $68,130.

This will be a real test of your sales abilities. Good luck with that selling price, you are going to need it. Feel free to contact us if you succeed. I will post an update.

BTW, Trooper posted this hilarious video in our forums. Enjoy…

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Northwood Pointe Cottages

Beyond the horizon of the place we lived when we were young

In a world of magnets and miracles

Our thoughts strayed constantly and without boundary

The ringing of the division bell had begin

Along the long road and on down the causeway

Do they still meet there by the cut

Lanes EndThe grass was greener

The light was brighter

With friends surrounded

The night of wonder

Encumbered forever by desire and ambition

Theres a hunger still unsatisfied

Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon

Though down this road we’ve been so many times

High Hopes — Pink Floyd

Are those who bought during the rally encumbered forever by desire and ambition? Will their hunger go unsatisfied? Our market has gone down this road many times, but each time the grass is greener and the light is brighter. Like moths to the flame, the greedy get consumed by the market’s hunger. In our long night of wonder many will long for the simplicity of youth.

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Today’s rental price comparison is not for the same property, but it is for two identical properties in the Northwood Pointe village of Lanes End. The for-sale property is an REO we profiled on a number of occasions with the most recent being The English Garden ** Final Update **. The bank has relisted the property at a market price designed to move the house. As we will see, it is still overpriced relative to value, but it is a significant step forward for market affordability.

Paisley Place Front 54 Paisley Place

Asking Price: $490,000

IrvineRenter

Asking Rent: $2,350

Gross Rent Multiplier: 208

Rent Finance Value: $371,795

Income Requirement: $122,500

Downpayment Needed: $98,000

Purchase Price: $506,429

REO

Purchase Date: 11/9/2007

For Sale Address: 54 Paisley Place, Irvine, CA 92620

Rental Address: 212 Garden Gate Lane, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,050

$/Sq. Ft.: $467Rollback

Lot Size: –

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 1998

Stories: Two LevelsRental

View(s): Hills

Area: Northwood

County: Orange

MLS#: S513519

Status: Active

On Redfin: 44 days

From Redfin, “Quiet interior location in Northwood Pointe Cottage in Lanes End. Charming curb appeal! Cozy fireplace with attached garage. Walk to Blue Ribbon Schools, Association pool, tennis and parks.”

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If the rental rate is appropriate for this “median” home then the market here is only overvalued by about $120,000 or 30%. That is real progress from the peak price paid for this unit which was about 60% to 70% over rental value. Of course, that means we are only at the halfway point for the correction in this neighborhood, but we are getting there…