People are afraid to face the hard landing, so we prompt our officials to endlessly support the market to avoid an uncertain fate. Which is better? crashing hard? or landing soft?

Irvine Home Address … 33 Gingerwood Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $550,000
{book1}
I felt all flushed with fever, embarrassed by the crowd,
I felt he found my letters and read each one out loud.
I prayed that he would finish but he just kept right on …
Strumming my pain with his fingers,
Singing my life with his words,
Killing me softly with his song,
Killing me softly with his song,
Telling my whole life with his words,
Killing me softly with his song …
Killing Me Softly With His Song — Shirley Bassey
The mess in our housing and financial markets are slowly draining the life out of us. The powers-that-be are killing us softly with their endless song and dance. Our government and the Federal Reserve want to engineer the fabled “soft landing.” So how would we measure their success?
A soft landing for the FED would be a slow and controlled decline of
house prices to levels sustainable by local incomes and free-market
financing conditions. The reason they will let it drop is to shorten
the time they have to support the market. The reason the Federal Reserve does not want to let it crash hard… they do not want their member banks to lose any more money. Wait, perhaps you thought it was because the US Government cares about you and your home prices… victim of the spin machine.
The FED’s mechanism for making the soft landing happen is the control of mortgage interest rates through direct purchase of agency paper. If the government insures it and the FED buys it, they could theoretically completely support the US housing market. There is no limit to the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. I doubt it would come to that.
The mechanism for recycling bad debt is (1) for the GSEs and the FHA to encase it in a new 30-year fixed loan at very low interest rates and (2) have the Federal Reserve buy that paper and hold it through maturity. The FED would not care about its actual value, it is merely stockpiling the detritus from the housing bubble… A toxic mortgage enema… The Federal Reserve’s Yucca Mountain… It will fester on the FEDs balance sheet — a pestilence contained in a paper sarcophagus where nobody looks and nobody cares.
{book4}
Soft Landing?
Payments are now affordable with conventional financing on most
properties, particularly those outside of Irvine. This is just a fact. The Federal Reserve has accomplished its primary market objective — stabilize prices through creating affordability. I believe prices will continue to fall for a number of other reasons, but payment affordability is no longer driving the price decline.
Now that we have reached payment affordability, how stable is that
affordability? and what happens if the system collapses?
You get Las Vegas.
Hard Landing?
Above is the Las Vegas S&P Case-Shiller Index with the conceptual stages of a bubble superimposed on it. Las Vegas landed hard; I am bullish on Las Vegas real estate. As you can see,
the despair stage can go on for a while and prices can remain depressed
and even fall further, but in my opinion, you have much greater
downside risk in Orange County than you do in Las Vegas.
Soft Landing? or Hard Crash?
The most common metaphor for a soft or a hard landing is removing a
band-aid quickly or slowly. You get the idea, but it doesn’t convey the
emotional trauma of an economic recession. The soft landing — to
continue the medical metaphor — is like a series painful bruises and
abrasions. It isn’t life threatening, but there is nothing pleasant
about daily pounding and skin scraping.
The hard crash is like a violent faceplant that is both humiliating and extremely painful — for a short period of
time, but then it is over, and you can move on with your life.
In many ways, the hard crash is better. Which would you prefer?
{book2}
Good Photo Presentation?
It is easy to make fun of the poor quality of marketing display on listings in the MLS because so many of them are so bad. Today, I want to compliment the photo presentation of this listing. The first photo on the listing display is not the drab front elevation, it is the best interior photo of the group. This presentation is much more eye-catching in a positive way. That’s the good…. Using the fisheye lens and distorting reality… that is not so good.


Irvine Home Address … 33 Gingerwood Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price … $550,000
Income Requirement ……. $101,229
Downpayment Needed … $110,000
Home Purchase Price … $636,000
Home Purchase Date …. 12/2/2004
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(119,000)
Percent Change ………. -13.5%
Annual Appreciation … -2.9%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $2,362
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $3,340
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $2,560
Redfin Property Details for 33 Gingerwood Irvine, CA 92603
Beds 2
Baths 2 baths
Size 1,598 sq ft
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 2004
Days on Market 6
Listing Updated 10/15/2009
MLS Number L31191
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Turtle Ridge
Tract Whgl
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
BEAUTIFUL HIGHLY UP GRADED SHORT SALE! Spacious 2 Bedroom and Den, Soring ceiling with lots of windows and light! Gorgeous hardwood floors,upgraded carpets in carpeted areas, upgraded tile in entry, MaBa, Laundry, Guest Bath. Upgraded cabinets & cabinet hardware throughout. Granite kitchen counter tops, upgraded tile backsplash & stainless appliances. Remote controlled shades in upper windows. Doorbell hookup to phone line. Master bedroom closets by California Closets, mirrored doors. Frosted glass/wood windows sliders in Master Bedroom. Silhouette brand window treatments. UV window tint on patio door and stairway windows. Phone trunk in Master Bedroom closet wired with wireless router & ethernet for jacks. Keypad entry at garage exterior, Epoxy garage floors. Park across street has Tennis, Basketball, etc. Near Beach, Newport Beach: Fashion Island, Corporate Plaza. Newport Coast Plaza. Orange County Airport, Freeways. Beautiful area! A must see home!
The pictures were good, but the description still needs work….
What is MaBa? Do they have Mexican Radio?
Master Bedroom closet wired with wireless router & ethernet for jacks? Is there a big demand for that?
- This property was purchased on 12/2/2004 for $636,000. The owners used a $508,712 first mortgage and a $127,288 downpayment.
- They did not waste much time before starting on the HELOC gravy train ride.
- On 11/14/2006 they refinanced with a $652,000 Option ARM and a $81,410 HELOC.
- Total property debt $733,410 plus negative amortization.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $224,698 which includes their downpayment.
The gave up early this year…
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/16/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2009000379425
Irvine Company News
For those interested in what the Irvine Company is doing, you may have seen the story on Sunday, Irvine Co. bets on homebuyer sensibility. Below are links to the support materials also released by the Irvine Company.
ICDC New Home Collection Press Release — Irvine Company — Fall 2009.pdf
New Home Neighborhood Fact Sheet — Irvine Company — Fall 2009.pdf
New Home Builder Profile Fact Sheet — Irvine Company — Fall 2009.pdf










