Author Archives: IrvineRenter

IHB News 5-1-2010

I enjoy looking at Shady Canyon properties on the weekend. They are very beautiful homes. It's even more entertaining when you see a $650,000 loss….

Irvine Home Address … 59 GRANDVIEW Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $2,999,000

{book1}

You always wanted a lover

I only wanted a job

I've always worked for my living

How am I gonna get through?

How am I gonna get through?

I come here looking for money

(Got to have it)

And end up leaving with love, oh, oh

Now you left me with nothing

(Can't take that)

How am I gonna get through?

How am I gonna get through?

Pet Shop Boys — What Have I Done To Deserve This?

The Writer's Corner

The posts this week left me feeling a bit uneasy. I am afraid I have unleashed a financial weapon of mass destruction. I was both amused and disturbed when I reasoned through the problem and figured out what I had done.

I am of the opinion that once the substance of the post, How Hedge Funds Could Crush the Banking Cartel and Keep Original Buyers in Foreclosures, gets around the net, strategic default is going to come to the forefront of the national problems of lending and the housing market. I am not alone.

I have been contacted by a few readers and confidants more knowledgeable in banking and finance than me, and they have expressed their concerns over this idea. Not because it won't work, but because it will.

I didn't set out with the goal to discover a way to short real estate and crush the banks. I was merely exploring options for finding good renters on Inland Empire properties. Ideally, the portfolio manager wants a renter who feels like they own the place so they will take care of it and never leave. The former owner is a natural rental candidate. Even after considering the former owner, I didn't fully realize what would happen until I asked myself, "what would make an owner pay more in rent and stay on longer?" The obvious answer was to give them the option to repurchase their home later once their credit improved. When the purchase option came to me, I saw the short trade and the huge incentive to walk away it creates. It frightened me.

The only thing really keeping underwater home owners from defaulting in large numbers is the belief that they will need to leave the property. Once borrowers believe they can stay in their homes and have their housing costs reduced to rental rates, it's over. They will all walk.

If a big money player began doing this on a big scale, and there is no reason it couldn't be scaled up nationally, it will crush the banks, the housing market, and in the short term, the national economy. Personally, I think it would be a great thing for the long-term prosperity of the country because the excessive debt serves no one, but short term, much pain will be involved.

I'm not quite sure what to do with this idea. Perhaps I should do nothing. Perhaps I think it is more dangerous than it really is. I don't know. I feel a bit like Robert Oppenheimer or Alfred Nobel, both of whom did create weapons of mass destruction and lived to regret it.

The thing is, if I were operating a fund in Riverside County buying properties, I would be doing this. My fiduciary responsibility to the fund would demand it. It would be irresponsible to turn away a good renter who would treat the property well and pay more for it. It is quite an interesting set of circumstances.

What concerns me the most is the pressure this will put on banks for principal reductions. Principal reduction without foreclosure is the worst of both worlds — it rewards HELOC abusing squatters without doing much to lower prices. It would be less expensive for the banks than having the Cartel Crusher convince everyone to default because they can control the damage and prices will remain higher with fewer sales, the current status quo.

Turning Cartel Crusher into Family Home Savior

It was fun writing about the Cartel Crusher from the point of view of anger toward the banks, but the Cartel Crusher will be worshiped as a godsend by loan owners in default. Cartel Crusher will keep more owners in their homes than any government program or bank loan modification program. It is true redemption for hopeless borrowers. I may write a post for next week renaming the Cartel Crusher and portraying it as something soft and fuzzy and a little messianic. Whatever its called, loan owners are going to love it.

I'm not really that angry

I want to share a little secret. I laugh at my own material. My wife thinks I am goofy as I sit at my computer and break down laughing. My favorite sequence from last week sounds very angry — with a little help from Arnold Schwarzenegger — but every time I read it, I burst out laughing:

What is best in life?

To crush the banks, see them driven into oblivion, and to hear the lamentation of their bondholders.

And although Monday seems like ages ago, I also enjoyed this cartoon:

It is difficult to get dialogue that matches the people in the pictures. I'm never quite sure if others see the same personalities I do, or if I capture the essence I seek. My best effort of the week was inspired by Soylent Green Is People. It took me several iterations to get the dialogue right and to sequence it to be easy to follow.

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

Housing Recovery Hoorah! Or Is It a Decline? (housingwatch.com)

Housing Rebound at Least 3 Years Away (businessweek.com)

Not all is well on the housing front (mybudget360.com)

Laguna foreclosures jump 66.7% over year (lagunahomes.freedomblogging.com)

Four of nation's top 10 foreclosure cities in CA Central Valley (centralvalleybusinesstimes.com)

Tustin base project called worthless bc of falling land prices (lansner.freedomblogging.com)

Redmond, WA Condo Association Votes to Mass Default (Mish)

South Florida foreclosures way up in first quarter (miamiherald.com)

W Hotel's developer says it is bankrupt (boston.com)

Realtor: What is so wrong with renting? (realtytimes.com)

For Many Horse Breeders, a Losing Bet in Kentucky (nytimes.com)

Hedge Funds Could Crush Bank Cartel, Keep Buyers in Foreclosures (irvinehousingblog.com)

Provision would break up nine biggest banks (marketwatch.com)

Goldman looking to settle SEC fraud case (nypost.com)

Gosh, didn't we learn all of this in 1933? (bayarearealestatetrends.com)

Housing Bubble Didn't Faze Irrational Housing Thoughts (theatlantic.com)

Australian bubble still in full force despite rate increase (money.ninemsn.com.au)

Pandora's box of lending toxics (theautomaticearth.blogspot.com)

Care to donate money to the US government? (pay.gov)

"Existing house on lot is older and has no inherent value." (patrick.net)

South Florida house prices drop (miamiherald.com)

FL Housing prices: no bottom in sight (wap.myfoxtampabay.com)

Is Strategic Default a "Menace"? (city-journal.org)

New Tahoe Ritz-Carlton hotel in default (rgj.com)

Santa Monica rent vs buy (doctorhousingbubble.com)

NJ/NY Area house prices fall 4.1 percent (northjersey.com)

U.S. Households Lost $100,000 From Crisis (bloomberg.com)

Bernanke Says Budget Gap Might Raise Interest Rates (bloomberg.com)

Lost in the market mayhem, the Fed was meeting (latimesblogs.latimes.com)

The Fed: Bubble makers (network.nationalpost.com)

The 13 Bankers Who Control Washington (dailybail.com)

Goldman Sachs' Fabulous Fab's Testimony Body Language (geldpress.com)

Senator tells Goldman executives they had conflict' with client's interests (kansascity.com)

Chicago renters could get security deposits back in foreclosures (chicagobreakingnews.com)

How Senate candidates would fix Wall Street, or not (lasvegassun.com)

Counties can tax American Indian land, but cannot seize it for nonpayment (wktv.com)

Bush Family Buys Hideaway In Marijuana-growing Area Of Paraguay (trufax.org)

Paraguayan President Sends 1,000 Troops To Area Where Bush Bought Land (latindispatch.com)

Mass. foreclosure activity is up sharply (boston.com)

FL houseowners associations recoup losses via fees on new buyers (orlandosentinel.com)

Palm Beach, FL prop values fall 12 percent (palmbeachpost.com)

Dodging Social Pressures, Renters Enjoy Flexibility (npr.org)

House Tax Credit a Costly Failure (calculatedriskblog.com)

Federal government is lending $9 of every $10 of new mortgages (newobservations.net)

Houses lost, but some 2nd-mortgage debts remain (sfgate.com)

Buyers have no moral duty to lenders (azcentral.com)

Goldman execs deny inflating housing bubble (tvnz.co.nz)

Goldman Sachs Lawyer Advises Long Pauses, Rambling Answers (abajournal.com)

Sen. Levin Gets Testy With Goldman Executive — "That Was One Shitty Deal" (dailybail.com)

U.S. senators accuse Goldman of betting against clients (torontosun.com)

Goldman grilled over mortgage business (financialpost.com)

Blankfein, Pecora and the blinding limelight (theautomaticearth.blogspot.com)

U.S. Stocks Set to Fall on Deepening Unemployment (bloomberg.com)

China: Red hot real estate (economist.com)

Real Estate Sales Girl In China Says "You should buy two" (timiacono.com)

Australia's Housing Shambles (scoop.co.nz)

Taibbi: Lunatics Who Made a Religion Out of Greed and Wrecked Economy (alternet.org)

The Economic Elite Vs. The People of the United States of America (ampedstatus.com)

Is It Really a Good Time to Buy a House? (washingtonindependent.com)

Look out below: U.S. pain not done yet (calgaryherald.com)

Texas has rational law limiting equity withdrawl to 80% of value (slate.com)

Fannie Encourages Strategic Default by Reducing Punishment Time for New Loan (irvinehousingblog.com)

CDO's For Dummies (zerohedge.com)

Fitch Downgrades Resource Real Estate Funding CDO 2007-1 (benzinga.com)

Berating the Raters (dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com)

Goldman's "Fabulous" Fab's conflicted love letters (finance.yahoo.com)

Canada's Bubbilicious Mortgage Deals Continue (seekingalpha.com)

China's real estate fever is rising (latimes.com)

China Stocks In Biggest Drop Of The Year As Asia Slumps (marketwatch.com)

How much do average Americans make after the Great Recession? (mybudget360.com)

Recessions, Housing Bubbles & the Real Unemployment Rate (trendlines.ca)

How to screw buyers with deceptive pricing (inman.com)

Government and media are largely controlled by corporate dollars (patrick.net)

Banks Control Washington DC (old but good) (theatlantic.com)

Tsunami of Red Ink – Global Look at National Debt and Who Owns US Debt (Mish)

The national debt and Washington's deficit of will (washingtonpost.com)

College Graduates' Debt Load May Outstrip Ability to Repay (bloomberg.com)

Unofficial Titusville, FL Tourism video (youtube.com)

It would take 103 Months (8.5 Years) to Clear Housing Inventory (blogs.wsj.com)

Where is the real, organic demand for housing? (novakeo.com)

Chicago back to organic house price slide (csmonitor.com)

Why I'm Waiting Until After 2012 To Buy A House (millionairemommynextdoor.com)

Facing foreclosure at $5 million and up (mortgage.freedomblogging.com)

FHFA House Price Index Declines in February (calculatedriskblog.com)

Credit Rating Firms Failed to See Rising Risk in Mortgage Products (ecreditdaily.com)

Former Employees Criticize Culture of Rating Firms (nytimes.com)

The Consensus on Big Banks Starts To Move (baselinescenario.com)

Jimmy Stewart is dead: Break up the banks (theautomaticearth.blogspot.com)

Obama's push for financial reform (latimes.com)

America must face up to the dangers of derivatives (georgesoros.com)

Reforming Housing Finance (nytimes.com)

E-mails show Goldman boasting as meltdown unfolds (news.yahoo.com)

Funny how the SEC porn story released just after Goldman investigation (latimes.com)

Chinas House Prices to Fall 20% This Year (businessweek.com)

Learning How to Fight the Debt Collector (nytimes.com)

Why is housing so expensive in Silicon Valley? (old but interesting) (PDF – scu.edu)

Does any real wealth exist?

It wasn't many years ago that when you saw a $3,000,000 home, you knew the owner probably owned it outright or with a minimal mortgage. Mortgages over $1,000,000 were not common because (1) borrowers didn't want them because they can't deduct all the interest, and (2) banks didn't want to underwrite them because so few borrowers qualify. Well, we all know what happened to lending standards, so now we have many, many high-end properties with enormous loans. A classic example of bubble inflation.

The high end is not stable. There is too much debt and too many pretenders that invaded these wealthy neighborhoods and drove up prices. Now they are squatting because the banks can't afford the write downs. From what I observe, the upper middle class is obtaining the greatest benefit from the amend-pretend-extend dance.

The loan owners occupying today's featured property borrowed $3,199,000 of their $3,474,500 purchase price. That is only $275,500 down. They could have made that selling a condo in 2006. So it isn't like they ported a great deal of equity into the property. No, they pretended and borrowed it.

To make matters worse, Washington Mutual loaned them $3,350,000 in a refi on 10/31/2007. WTF were they thinking? In the end, these borrowers had only $125,500 of their own money in a $3,474,500 property.

When people are successful and "arrive" they are supposed to do it with cash. Californian's arrive early with borrowed prosperity and fake it until they either make it or experience the The Unceremonious Fall from Entitlement.

The success of pretenders is amazing. Other people really believe California is a land of endless wealth. It is all an illusion. Did you know that almost 80% of the BMWs and Mercedes on the road are leased? That is pretending.

Irvine Home Address … 59 GRANDVIEW Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $2,999,000

Home Purchase Price … $3,474,500

Home Purchase Date …. 8/31/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(655,440)

Percent Change ………. -13.7%

Annual Appreciation … -3.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$2,999,000 ………. Asking Price

$599,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.16% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$2,399,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$632,333 ………. Income Requirement

$13,115 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$2599 ………. Property Tax

$600 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$250 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$410 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$16,974 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1932 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$2798 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$1220 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$375 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$13,838 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$29,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$29,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$23,992 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$599,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$683,772 ………. Total Cash Costs

$212,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$895,872 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 59 GRANDVIEW Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

Beds: 6

Baths: 6 full 1 part baths

Home size: 5,562 sq ft

($539 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 12,471 sq ft

Year Built: 2006

Days on Market: 114

MLS Number: S600991

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Turtle Ridge

Tract: Lacm

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Views! Views!! Views!!! One of the Most Spectacular View Homes in the Summit at Turtle Ridge! Charming Indoor and Outdoor Spaces Created around a Central Courtyard. Open Air Dining Loggia with Fireplace Provides a Glimpse of this Home's Brilliant use of Outdoor Space. Gourmet Kitchen and Pantry with Top-of-the-Line Appliances. Luxurious Main Floor Master Bedroom and Bath with Spectacular Views. Great Room with Fireplace, Opens to a Beautifully Landscaped Backyard with Gorgeous Views. Extra Large Bonus Room leads to the Central Court Yard. The Casita, a Completely Separate Living Suite with a Fireplace, is Generously Sized, creating a Private Oasis. Super Size Laundry Room, Four Car Garage, Travertine Floors, Upgraded Carpet, Granite Counters, and Many More Upgrades, add to the Luxury and Comfort of this Home. Upstairs includes Bonus Room, Two Bedrooms, each with Views and Full Baths, and a Separate Living Room with Kitchenette and Private Access to the Outside.

Why are so many of those words capitalized?

Irvine does have some beautiful properties.

Strategic Default Is Merely Collecting On Home Price Protection Insurance Sold By Lenders

There are many ways to view strategic default. Borrowers use mortgages like option contracts giving them a "put" from a lender. It can also be viewed as an insurance contract against downside price movements. Borrowers are merely collecting on their insurance policy.

Irvine Home Address … 26 MIRADOR #59 Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price …… $750,000

{book1}

Where do we go from here now that all other children are growin' up

And how do we spend our lives if there's no-one to lend us a hand

I don't wanna live here no more, I don't wanna stay

Ain't gonna spend the rest of my life, Quietly fading away

Games people play, You take it or you leave it

Things that they say, Honor Brite

If I promise you the Moon and the Stars, Would you believe it

Games people play in the middle of the night

Alan Parsons Project — Games People Play

Do loan owners really want to spend a decade or more under water? It will be difficult to send their children off to college when they make too much for their kids to get aid, but they haven't saved anything because they are paying on a bloated mortgage. At some point, they may decide they don't want to stay, but then they can't move because they can't sell. They spend the rest of their lives quietly fading away.

Many in California will stay because they believe the next housing bubble is right around the corner. Like gamblers at the craps table who were just wiped out, everyone places their bets and hopes for another long run. At least with HELOCs, you never have to worry about leaving chips on the table.

Buyers have no moral duty to lenders

by Brent T. White Brent T. White – Apr. 25, 2010 12:00 AM

Associate professor of law, UA The Arizona Republic

As a result of the housing collapse, many Arizonans have seen their homes lose half of their value. Many owe several hundred thousand dollars more than their homes are worth and are unlikely to dig out of their negative equity hole for decades.

For these homeowners, the American dream has become a nightmare – and their financial future is dim.

To compound the stress and anxiety, when they've called their lender to work out a solution, they've discovered that their lender won't even talk to them about a loan modification or a short sale as long as they are current on their mortgage.

With no help in sight, some of these underwater homeowners have decided that they would be better off letting go of their homes and have stopped making their mortgage payments. Many have done so with the hope that defaulting will finally bring their lender to the table, but they are also resigned to the fact that they will likely lose their homes.

Wait until Cartel Crusher LLC makes its way to Arizona. They appear to need widespread debt destruction to enable them to get on with their lives. I suspect a broadcast message of hope to home debtors to stay in their homes and eliminate the crushing debt would be well received, at least among the indebted.

It has been suggested that such homeowners are immoral or, at least, irresponsible. I disagree.

Before explaining why, it is important to emphasize that the decision to strategically default on a mortgage involves many complex, localized and individualized factors. No one should decide to strategically default on their mortgage without sitting down first with a knowledgeable professional.

I wonder if professor White laughed to himself as he wrote that silly disclaimer.

But let's say that you've actually sat down with a professional to do the calculations and have concluded that defaulting on your mortgage is the only way out of your financial nightmare. Would it be immoral or irresponsible for you to do so?

The arguments against homeowners intentionally defaulting on their mortgages generally center on the same three basic points.

First, underwater homeowners "promised" to pay their mortgages when they signed the mortgage contract. Second, foreclosures lead to depreciation of neighborhoods, so underwater homeowners should hang on in order to help preserve their neighbors' property values. And, third, if all underwater homeowners defaulted, the housing market might crash. Homeowners thus have a social obligation to pay their underwater mortgage in order to save the economy.

While all three of these arguments might hold some initial appeal, none holds water.

I had never considered the final two arguments Dr. White presents because they are so silly, but he does go on to address them.

First, a mortgage contract, like all other contracts, is purely a legal document – not a sacred promise.

Think of it this way: when you got your cellphone, you likely signed a contract with your carrier in which you "promised" to pay a set monthly payment for two years. Would it be immoral for you to break your contractual "promise" to pay for two years if you decided that you no longer needed the cellphone and elect instead to pay the early termination fee? Of course not. The option to breach your "promise" to pay is part of the contract.

Though involving more money and something of great sentimental value to most people, a mortgage contract is simply a contract. Like a cellphone contract, a mortgage contract explicitly sets out the consequences of a breach of contract.

A mortgage is like a cellphone contract? Wow, I broke one of those and paid the fee. When you break it down like that, you see how much of the argument about morality and mortgages is pure emotional bullshit. Commercial lenders deal with default all the time because commercial borrowers are completely unemotional about their decisions to pay or default. Since loan owners get emotional about their houses, lenders have learned to play on that emotional bond to create a bogus moral connection.

In other words, the lender has contemplated in advance that the mortgagor might be unable or unwilling to continue making payments on his mortgage at some point and has decided in advance what fair compensation to the lender would be. Specifically, the lender included clauses in the contract providing that the lender can foreclose on the property and keep any payments that have been made. By writing this penalty into the contract, the lender has agreed to accept the property and any payments already made in lieu of the remaining payments.

Moreover, lenders charge Arizona borrowers on average an extra $800 per $100,000 borrowed because Arizona is a non-recourse state, meaning the lender cannot come after the borrower for a deficiency judgment on a purchase money loan. In other words, borrowers in Arizona pay for the option to default on a purchase money loan without recourse. The lender can only take the house.

That's the agreement. No one forced the lender to make the loan or sign the contract. Indeed, the lender wrote it. And, to be sure, the lender wouldn't hesitate to exercise his right to take a person's house if it was in his financial interest to do so. Concerns of morality or socially responsibility wouldn't be part of the equation.

In short, as far as the law is concerned, choosing to exercise the default option in a mortgage contract is no more immoral than choosing to cancel a cellphone contract. Indeed, exercising the default option in your mortgage contract is similar to cashing in on an insurance policy. You paid for it – and have you a right to exercise it.

I have demonstrated that borrowers used mortgages as option contracts. It is the same idea. Lenders sold downside risk protection to borrowers. They assumed 100% of the risk of price decline, and now lenders want to appeal to borrowers misguided sense of right and wrong to cajole borrowers into paying for the lender's mistakes.

But what about the argument that mortgage default hurts neighborhoods and the economy?

Well, first, in a capitalist society, we don't generally expect individuals to make personal economic decisions for the collective good. Aside from this fact, however, it's unfair, in my opinion, to ask underwater homeowners to prop up neighborhood property values, or the housing market, on their backs – especially if means sacrificing their ability to send their children to college or save adequately for their own retirement.

Distressed sellers are under no obligation to endure pain for the fantasies of their neighbors. If the neighborhood values get inflated by a few stupid buyers enabled by reckless lenders, and if the owners in that neighborhood concoct fanciful dreams of wealth, the people become poisoned with entitlement and HELOC spending and other abuses. In my opinion, distressed sellers are doing the neighbors a favor by removing the air from the bubble. As long as the bubble air is present, lenders have room to enable more HELOC borrowing.

Why take homeowners, and not lenders, to task for putting their own financial interest ahead of the common good? Indeed, if lenders were less intransigent and more willing to negotiate, underwater homeowners wouldn't have to walk away from their homes in order to save themselves from financial ruin. And we wouldn't have to worry about the fragile housing market crashing again.

Why it is that we speak of morality and social responsibility only when talking about the little guy, who must take his lumps for the common good, while financial institutions are free to protect their bottom line?

It just can't be the case that it's morally acceptable for banks to look out for their financial best interest, but it's not OK for the average American do to exactly the same thing.

I covered Dr. White when he came on the national scene with his paper on walking way, Should You Walk Away from Home Debt?

Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Housing Crisis

Brent T. White

Abstract

"Contrary to reports that homeowners are increasingly "walking away" from their mortgages, most homeowners continue to make their payments even when they are significantly underwater. This article suggests that most homeowners do not strategically default as a result of two emotional forces: 1) the desire to avoid the shame and guilt of foreclosure; and 2) exaggerated anxiety over foreclosure's perceived consequences. Moreover, these emotional constraints are actively cultivated by the government and other social control agents in order to induce homeowners to ignore market and legal norms under which strategic default might not only be a viable option, but also the wisest financial decision. Unlike lenders, individual homeowners have thus generally not acted to minimize their losses and have born a disproportionate share of the burden from the housing collapse."

WalkingAway1029.pdf

From the main text:

"This article suggest that most underwater homeowners don't default as a result of two emotional forces: 1) the desire to avoid the shame or guilt associated with foreclosure; and 2) fear over the perceived consequences of foreclosure – consequences that are in actuality much less severe than most homeowners have been led to believe. Moreover, fear, shame, and guilt are not mere "transaction costs" that homeowners calculate according to their own personal tolerance for each. Rather, these emotional constraints are actively cultivated by the government, the financial industry, and other social control agents in order to induce individual homeowners to act in ways that are against their own self interest, but which are – wrongly this article contends – argued to be socially beneficial."

Dr. White gets it.

Games People Play

When I look through the property records I often come across the shady games people play to attempt to dodge responsibilities for their debts. California is a community property state which means marital assets are owned jointly; however, it is common for both husbands and wives to maintain separate lives, particularly if there was an extreme asset imbalance prior to the marriage.

The owners of today's featured property attempted some rather bizarre things to compartmentalize what happens with this property. I can't see how they were successful.

  • First, the property was purchased by the husband as his sole and separate property for $428,500 on 2/29/2000. He used a $385,650 first mortgage and a $42,850 down payment.
  • On 4/13/2001, he refinnced the first mortgage for $390,000.
  • Then on 6/13/2003 the husband sells the property to the wife as her sole and separate property. Perhaps an attorney can comment on how this would work. Seems like commingling to me.
  • On 6/2/2004 the wife opens a $100,000 HELOC.
  • On 6/2/2005 she obtains $280,000 HELOC.
  • On 11/10/2005 the wife sells the property to a family trust owned by both the husband and wife.
  • Then on 2/14/2006, the trust sells the property back to the wife as her sole and separate property. I can't see how that is valid, but they tried.
  • On the same day, the wife borrowers $800,000 in a first mortgage, and takes out a $150,000 stand-alone second.
  • Then on 2/15/2005 — the next day — the wife sells the property back to the trust with the husband. Do they really think they can compartmentalize the debt like that?
  • Total property debt is $950,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is 564,350.
  • Total squatting time is at least one year.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/11/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/12/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Irvine Home Address … 26 MIRADOR #59 Irvine, CA 92612

Resale Home Price … $750,000

Home Purchase Price … $428,500

Home Purchase Date …. 2/29/2000

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $276,500

Percent Change ………. 75.0%

Annual Appreciation … 5.2%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$750,000 ………. Asking Price

$150,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.16% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$600,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$158,136 ………. Income Requirement

$3,280 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$650 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$63 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$487 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,479 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$808 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$700 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$305 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$94 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,371 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$7,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,000 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$150,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$171,000 ………. Total Cash Costs

$51,600 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$222,600 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 26 MIRADOR #59 Irvine, CA 92612

——————————————————————————

Beds: 2

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 1,830 sq ft

($410 / sq ft)

Lot Size: n/a

Year Built: 1985

Days on Market: 211

MLS Number: S591359

Property Type: Condominium, Residential

Community: Turtle Rock

Tract: Po

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

THIS IS A SHORT SALE!!!!!! Stunning Tuscan Villa with professional chef's kitchen; granite counters; Viking appliances; Enjoy the peaceful serene setting while relaxing in your totally upgraded remodeled home. This is a perfect home in an exclusive gated Turtle Rock neighborhood; This home is gorgeous!!!

No shortage of exclamation points. The realtor must be very excited about this deal. Of course, some ALL CAPS are thrown in for good measure.

There are not many words, but she did manage to use two of my graphics.

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

How Hedge Funds Could Crush the Banking Cartel and Keep Original Buyers in Foreclosures

Loan modifications are no longer a borrower's only option to stay in their home. Hedge funds can buy up properties, rent it to the former owners, and offer to resell it back to them when they qualify for a loan. The hedge funds win, the buyers win, and the lenders lose. Perfect.

Irvine Home Address … 7 ROANNE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $750,000

Party time, going down

you better not mess us around

the stakes are rich, take a hit or stay

the price is high, someone's gonna pay

Looking for trouble, now you've found it

you're a drum and we're gonna pound it

Last one standing wins the fight

hear us scream and shout all night

down on the floor and eat the grit

this is gonna hurt a little bit

Megadeth — Crush 'em

The banking cartel has tied up most of the inventory in California. A third to half of homeowners are now underwater and unable to sell without lender approval. Many more borrowers are facing foreclosure as about 15% of homeowners are not paying their mortgages. The lenders already own many properties. Between what they own and what they control, lenders have withheld inventory and kept much of the air in the real estate bubble.

I think this is shameful. I want to see the lending cartel crushed. Californian's have too much of their incomes going to debt service so Goldman Sachs' investors can make a few more pennies.

I have a better idea.

Short Sellers are reviled

Many people have a negative view of short sellers. They feel that short-selling is profiting at the expense of others. The people who really hate short sellers are owners of overpriced assets.

Short sellers borrow assets and sell them only to buy them back later at a lower price and profit from the difference. Short selling has a very valuable place in financial markets. Without the activity of short-sellers, assets become hopelessly inflated in price, and money that should be freed up for more productive uses is tied up in unproductive assets. For money to be released, the assets must be sold. Short sellers actively sell when no other sellers are motivated, and in selling, they re-balance market prices.

Real estate markets are very inefficient, and part of the reason is a lack of short sellers. Nobody, including the banking cartel, is anxious to sell real estate right now. That simply maintains an overly inflated valuation in the market. The activity of owners buying and renting has not been significant, and that only puts people in a "flat" financial position. What the market needs is short sellers — true short sellers. Until now, nobody has known how to be short real estate. Today, I am going to explain how it can be done.

Hedge Fund Basics

Hedge funds are investment pools formed as a company and managed with a specific investment plan. Hedge funds are generally private capital limited to sophisticated investors. Joe Six Pack is not permitted to invest in hedge funds. There are as many hedge funds as their are investment strategies capable of raising money. Some are very successful, most are not.

Since hedge funds are private investment pools made up of sophisticated investors, they are free to invest in whatever they want within the constraints of law. Many hedge funds invest in real estate, and many are forming now to clean up the debris from the Great Housing Bubble.

Real Estate Hedge Fund Investments

Today we are going to discuss the investment strategy of a mythical company, Cartel Crusher, LLC. Limited Liability Companies are a favored form of many hedge funds because they provide limited risk and all gains or losses are passed through to the individual investors.

Cartel Crusher LLC is real estate investment fund that buys rental properties at auction and keeps them in portfolio to obtain the cashflow from rentals. Last week, in the post, Buying a Rental at Trustee Sale, I outlined the math and analysis required to obtain a rental property at foreclosure auction.

In areas where the subprime foreclosures are common, pricing is 50% or more below the peak, and cap rates range from 6% to 8%. For an investment company like Cartel Crusher LLC, this return is sufficient to bring in outside capital to buy foreclosures. A typical deal would be like the Corona property below going to auction on 3 May 2010.

A property like this one could increase returns and free up capital for more acquisitions by applying 15-year debt at a payment with positive cashflow.

This is the type of long-term hold acquisition that is the ultimate goal of Cartel Crusher LLC.

From Cartel Crusher LLC's perspective, it doesn't matter who the renter is as long as they pay the rent reliably and don't trash the place. The landlord's dream is to find a renter that cares for the place as if it were their own and doesn't want to move out. That is difficult to find, but in the aftermath of the housing crash, a special opportunity exists to find that special renter — the former owner.

Making owners a better deal

Cartel Crusher LLC would very much like to keep the former owner in the property. Note some of the key numbers from page 2 above that are improved by this arrangement:

  1. Real Estate Improvements.
  2. Tenant move-out allowance.
  3. Gross Rent
  4. Vacancy and Collection loss

All four of those numbers improve by keeping the owner in place. There are no real estate improvements, and no tenant move out allowance when the owner stays in place. Vacancy and collection loss is also eliminated because the owner will stay for the duration (more on that later). Gross rents are also higher and more predictable. These benefits to Cartel Crusher LLC are great if the owner can be persuaded to stay in the property.

Why would an owner do this? Why not get a loan modification?

In the short term, if the owner were to obtain a loan modification, they may be able to lower the payment enough to be competitive with a rental for a while; however, loan modifications are a temporary fix, and the debt on the property is still double what it should be. The only way an owner is going to see a principal reduction is through a foreclosure. There is less opportunity for most owners in a loan modification to have equity because their loan balance is simply too high.

The deal being offered to an owner by Cartel Crusher LLC will give them peace-of-mind on their cost of housing, and if they buy the property back later, the debt will be reduced significantly. Basically, Cartel Crusher LLC is offering owners a much better deal.

Owner stays on as a renter

After the foreclosure, no lender will give the newly foreclosed a loan. There is a mandatory waiting period — recently reduced to two years — when former owners must be renters. When most face foreclosure and walk through this valley of death, they have no idea when, where, or if they will be owners again. Very scary.

Cartel Crusher LLC makes these worries go away. Cartel Crusher LLC will go to auction to acquire the property and rent it back to them, and it will give them an option to buy the property back at a later date at a pre-negotiated price.

For this feeling of ownership continuity, the renting former owner will pay a 5% premium on area rents, plus they will agree to an automatic 2% yearly rental increase. Since this rental payment will be much less than the mortgage payment, the lower cost of housing will be a major financial benefit. If they can't afford the rent, then they are hopeless and need to move on.

Owner gets right to repurchase

Cartel Crusher LLC will establish a baseline value from comparable resales on the date of the sale. The price increases 4% per year. After 10 years, if an owner still has not purchased, the deal expires.

There is one very important condition, the price actually paid for the property is the greater of the number in the chart below and appraised value at the time of sale. If California inflates another housing bubble, this right-to-repurchase can't be exercised like an option to a third party to profit from the difference. If the borrower is unable to get their act together to qualify for a loan and resale values are higher than the numbers above, the benefit of the irrational market exuberance comes back to Cartel Crusher LLC. If values never come back, the owner is certainly no worse off by renting.

Consider the resale value chart above compared to the deal the owner gets from the government or their lender if they get a loan modification. In the Corona property, the debt today is $704,000. If it were an owner-occupied property, the owner would not be above water until 2023. Cartel Crusher LLC would sell it to him for less than his current debt for the next 13 years. And in doing so, Cartel Crusher LLC would make a great return on its investment through rent and appreciation while keeping an owner in their home.

The government can't do that.

The lenders won't do that.

Cartel Crusher LLC will do that.

Busting the cartel through strategic default

The private sector hedge funds have the answer. Any fund operating like Cartel Crusher LLC will be able to keep owners in their properties until they can own again. Since this offer is so enticing to underwater homeowners whose payments exceed rent, waves of strategic default will inundate the land. Owners who strategically default and rent from Cartel Crusher LLC will be short real estate. They will be ditching their mortgage and their higher tax basis and buying the same house back later for a lower price. By selling short, stategic defaulters will rebalance pricing at cashflow levels.

The only thing the owner has to do is stop paying their mortgage. The lender cannot evict an owner from a property for being in default. The only option available to a lender to compel payment is foreclosure, and as we have all seen, they are choosing not to foreclose and allowing squatters to live all over the nation. That's fine. The owner is still living in the property, and they are never going to give the bank another dime. From the owner's perspective, this state of affairs can go on forever.

When the lender finally gets around to foreclosing, Cartel Crusher LLC will be at the auction to buy the property. And since Cartel Crusher LLC has established a higher rental rate and knows there will be no improvement costs, holding costs, cash-for-keys and the like, Cartel Crusher LLC will be able to bid higher than others who will be facing those costs.

There are no guarantees at auction, and Cartel Crusher LLC may not be the high bidder, and the property owner may still have to move out, but with the lower cost structure, Cartel Crusher LLC will bid higher than the rational professionals, and most often that will be a successful acquisition.

The banks could defeat this fund by failing to drop bids. If the bank bought every property at auction, the bank could go out of its way to boot the strategic defaulters out. If lenders go that route, there will be millions and millions of REO properties.

Everyone benefits except the banks

The only party who suffers in this process is the lender, and perhaps the US taxpayer who is paying their losses. The aggrieved party in this instance is the one most deserving of pain, the irresponsible lenders who ruined the housing market and the economy. Screw them. Crush them.

What is best in life?

To crush the banks, see them driven into oblivion, and to hear the lamentation of their bondholders.

Will owners really strategically default in large numbers?

The picture above is taken near Canyon View Elementary School in Irvine. There are two closely-spaced signs that say "no parking any time." They are conspicuous and obvious. Whenever I drive by this location, cars are parked in the street, sometimes two or three of them because this parking spot is adjacent to a daycare center. The illegal parking place is 40 feet from the door. The proper alternative is to drive up the street, turn right, and enter a parking lot about 200 feet away.

Here is what happens: A few parents reason that they are not going to be very long, and it is inconvenient to park in the proper location, so they brazenly park between the two signs. Other parents driving by to get their own children see the lawbreakers obtaining the advantage of their disobedience, so they too decide to park on the street in the no parking area.

After enough parents do this, there is a critical mass where everyone ignores the law and does what is convenient for them, park on the street. At that point, nobody really cares about the law. In fact, those that do the right thing (like stupid me) are playing the fool. Those who follow the law are missing out on the benefit obtained by all those breaking the law.

This is the phenomenon lenders fear most. Once people start to strategically default, and others in the same circumstances see how much the defaulters benefit for their actions, many others will join them. After a time, the stigma disappears, and the final holdouts realize they are foolish not to join the default party and obtain the benefits for themselves.

Once strategic default clears out the debt in one community, the substitution effect will lower prices in nearby communities putting more homeowners in position to benefit from strategic default. Like small outbreaks of lender virus, the spread of strategic default will cleanse the land of its excess debt and put prices at cashflow levels everywhere. Houses will be affordable, borrowers will have manageable debt-service payments, and the California economy will benefit from a citizenry with more disposable income — the real kind, not borrowed money.

Driving the message home

Cartel Crusher LLC will extol the benefits to every underwater homeowner facing foreclosure with high payments. It's a simple message:

Are you facing foreclosure? Do you owe more on your home that it is currently worth? Can you rent a similar home for much less? Do you want to stay in your home, reduce your monthly payments, and cut your debt in half? Cartel Crusher LLC is here to help.

Cartel Crusher LLC will send that message to every house in neighborhoods like the one in Corona where a Notice of Default has been filed. It will get a response. After a few of these deals go through, the floodgates will open up and the inflated property debt will be washed away through strategic default. I will feel good about it.

The Lending Cartel is on notice

This is coming, and there isn't much the lending cartel can do about it. Cartel Crusher LLC has arrived, and it's hungry.

Dogs of war and men of hate

With no cause, we don't discriminate

Discovery is to be disowned

Our currency is flesh and bone

Hell opened up and put on sale

Gather 'round and haggle

For hard cash, we will lie and deceive

Even our masters don't know the webs we weave

One world, it's a battleground

One world, and we will smash it down

One world … One world

Invisible transfers, long distance calls,

Hollow laughter in marble halls

Steps have been taken, a silent uproar

Has unleashed the dogs of war

You can't stop what has begun

Signed, sealed, they deliver oblivion

We all have a dark side, to say the least

And dealing in death is the nature of the beast

One world, it's a battleground

One world, and we will smash it down

One world … One world

The dogs of war don't negotiate

The dogs of war won't capitulate,

They will take and you will give,

And you must die so that they may live

Isn't Cartel Crusher LLC helping out HELOC abusing squatters?

Yes, it is.

The nefarious characters of the housing bubble all deserve to suffer. But I have argued that lenders are more culpable than borrowers in creating this mess. If bailing out a few HELOC abusing squatters is necessary to crush the banking cartel, so be it.

  • I can't tell what is happening with this property from the available records, but I do see a purchase for $615,000 on 11/3/2004. The owners used a $492,000 first mortgage and a $123,000 down payment.
  • Exactly two months later (the required waiting period), the owners obtained a $123,000 HELOC and got their money out.
  • On 7/15/2005 they obtained a $253,000 HELOC.
  • On 8/31/2006 they obtained a $300,000 HELOC. Since these are all HELOCs after the first, there is no way to know if the borrower took out the money. But why would borrowers keep enlarging it if they weren't spending it?
  • Total property debt is $792,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $300,000.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 04/07/2010

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/24/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 11/17/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

This appears to have been sold short on 25 March 2010, but Redfin shows it as still being for sale.

Cartel Crusher LLC isn't soft on the borrowers

Some investors may feel that the investment plan for Cartel Crusher LLC is not balanced because it hurts only the banks and rewards the borrowers. Perhaps some of the proceeds from crushing the banks could be reinvested in foreclosed second mortgages and other zombie debt to even the score with HELOC abusing squatters. Sounds like a winning combination.

Irvine Home Address … 7 ROANNE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $750,000

Home Purchase Price … $615,000

Home Purchase Date …. 11/3/2004

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $90,000

Percent Change ………. 22.0%

Annual Appreciation … 3.6%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$750,000 ………. Asking Price

$150,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.16% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$600,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$158,136 ………. Income Requirement

$3,280 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$650 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$63 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,992 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$808 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$700 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$305 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$94 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,884 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$7,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,000 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$150,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$171,000 ………. Total Cash Costs

$44,200 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$215,200 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 7 ROANNE Cir Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 2,225 sq ft

($337 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 7,705 sq ft

Year Built: 1971

Days on Market: 148

MLS Number: S597813

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: El Camino Real

Tract: Rc

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

This property is in backup or contingent offer status.

Fantastic end of cul-de-sac 4 bedroom pool home. Move-in ready! Close to park on cul-de-sac in desirable Ranch/El Camino neighborhood. Award winning school district. Major interior upgrades and remodeling. Granite counter kitchen with center island, Newer double pane windows. Living room with fire place, formal dining room, family room set-up as theater, master with walk-in closet. Tiled remodeled bathrooms, tiled and wood flooring, carpeting in bedrooms. Ceiling fans, Attached 3-car garage, Gas forced-air heating/AC. cable ready. Easy access to 3 major freeways. Must see to appreciate! No HOA, Low tax rate with NO Mello Roos. Home is highlighted by a large Family room and four bedrooms, all on this quiet street. Custom window coverings, wood floor, crown molding, home also has newer pool equipment and much more.

.

Total Delinquent Loans 21.3 Percent Higher Than Last Year; Foreclosure Rates At Record High

Delinquencies and foreclosures and inventory are all rising. But the current market is controlled by the banking cartel who is hoping to limit available inventory to force you to over pay for a home.

133 Danbrook Kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 133 DANBROOK Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… Listed at: $320,000

{book1}

Ooo and it's alright and it's comin' 'long

We got to get right back to where we started from

Love is good, love can be strong

We got to get right back to where we started from

Maxine Nightingale — Right Back Where We Started From

The last year has been a complete waste of time and resources as the government and the banking cartel conspired to prop up prices through taxpayer incentives and the Federal Reserve printing a lot of money. Delinquencies and foreclosures are rising, inventory is creeping up, and resale volume is low. Together these circumstances provide the market an illusion of stability and prosperity.

All our efforts have really accomplished is to delay the losses lenders must take before clearing the market at affordable prices, and in the process, we have cajoled many people into overpriced real estate and a lifetime of debt service. Our government puts the interests of bankers above the interests of the citizens of the United States.

Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Again [not]

By RUTH SIMON

In another encouraging sign for the U.S. housing market, mortgage delinquencies fell in March for the second month in a row, according to new data.

The number of mortgage loans that were at least 30 days past due or in foreclosure declined 8.6% in March, according to LPS Applied Analytics, which tracks loan performance. The biggest slide came in loans that were 30 days past due. Such loans fell by a record 342,000 to roughly 1.45 million, a level not seen since spring 2008.

Delinquencies nearly always fall in February and March as evidenced by the last five years shown in the related chart below. The monthly drops aren't reason to celebrate.

The graphic does show a decline in the percentage of loans in default, but this is a direct result of HAMP loan modifications, most of which are doomed to fail.

Ignoring the misleading headlines about declining delinquencies, what is the truth of the situation?

Total Delinquent Loans 21.3 Percent Higher Than Last Year; Foreclosure Rates At Record High

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – April 12, 2010 – The latest Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS), a leading provider of mortgage performance data and analytics, shows that the total number of delinquent loans was 21.3 percent higher than the same period last year. Although the data showed a small 1.45 percent seasonal decline in delinquencies from January 2010 to February 2010 month-end, the national delinquency rate still stood at 10.2 percent. The report is based on data as of February 2010 month-end.

The nation’s foreclosure inventories reached record highs. February’s foreclosure rate of 3.31 percent represented a 51.1 percent year-over-year increase. The percentage of new problem loans also remains at a five-year high. The total number of non-current first-lien mortgages and REO properties is now more than 7.9 million loans. Furthermore, the percentage of new problem loans is also at its highest level in five years. More than 1.1 million loans that were current at the beginning of January 2010 were already at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure by February 2010 month-end.

As a result of the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), delinquent loans that were modified and that remained current through HAMP’s three-month trial period – called “cures-to-current” – have increased. Advanced delinquency rolls, however, remain elevated from a historical perspective.

Other key results from LPS’ latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

  • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 10.2 percent
  • Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 3.3 percent
  • Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.5 percent
  • States with most non-current* loans: Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Mississippi, California, New Jersey, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio and Indiana
  • States with fewest non-current* loans: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana, Vermont, Colorado, Washington and Minnesota

Back to Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Again:

… There is still plenty of pain left in the mortgage sector. More than 320,000 loans that started the year current were at least 60 days past due at the end of March, according to LPS. More than 3.6 million homes will be lost from 2010 to 2012 because borrowers can't make their loan payments, Moody's Economy.com estimates.

Among other reasons for caution, mortgage delinquencies typically fall in February and March as borrowers get their tax refunds, said Lou Tisler, executive director of Neighborhood Housing Services of Greater Cleveland, which works with financially troubled homeowners. In the Cleveland area, foreclosure filings are on pace to equal the highs of 2008.

So the reporter comes back to the fact that negates her rosy headline later in the article.

Have you noticed that pattern before? Reporters start with a few rosy statistics, often taken out of context, then they proceed to fill in the story with the gory details of a deteriorating picture. Here we are in April 2010, and the reality of the housing market hasn't changed. It was like the market was encased in amber in early 2009, and we have been waiting for the collective incompetence on Wall Street and in Washington to get out of the way and let the market clear.

The number of borrowers seeking aid also continues to rise. At Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Greater Atlanta, foreclosure-prevention counseling sessions were up 4.7% through March compared with a year earlier. "We're probably seeing, at mortgage-counseling programs across the country, 5,000 to 7,000 new people a week," says Douglas Robinson, a spokesman for NeighborWorks America, which administers the government's national foreclosure-mitigation-counseling program.

Some borrowers are being helped by the Obama administration's foreclosure-prevention program and other modification efforts. Irma Bravo, the owner of a cleaning service in San Diego, recently received a loan workout that lowers the monthly payment on her $522,000 mortgage to $1,736 from nearly $5,000.

"It's a big, big relief," Ms. Bravo says.

No kidding! Of course, this borrower is now paying on a government sponsored Option ARM, but they have put off foreclosure for a few years.

Through March, more than 230,000 borrowers have received permanent modifications through the government program, according to the Treasury Department. It isn't clear how many borrowers will remain current once their loan is modified. [LOL! very few will remain current]

But getting a loan workout remains difficult. "There are still a huge number of cases in the pipeline or on hold," said Gabe del Rio, a senior vice president with Community HousingWorks in San Diego, which counsels borrowers facing foreclosure.

Yes, there is a substantial pipeline of new delinquencies and foreclosures. When will they release them for sale? We have been tracking the success rate at auction recently, and in many markets, more than 90% of properties scheduled for auction are postponed at the last minute. Lenders keep playing the music.

I found another chart very revealing: the cure ratio is still lopsided which means more loans are going bad than are getting better. The more loans we modify the more behind we get.

At least it is getting better, right?

This next chart is really disturbing. A third of all delinquent borrowers have been squatting for over a year.

For every delinquent borrower in California not in foreclosure — that means they stopped paying and no notices have been filed — thirty six percent have not made a payment in over twelve months. That is shadow inventory, a squatter's paradise. The banks have not begun foreclosure proceedings against these people, and as you can see from the data, it is not a phenomenon isolated to California.

At least the economy is seeing some benefit from all this squatting. $10 Billion a Month Freed up Each Month from People not paying their Mortgage. $1.9 Billion of That is in California so People can continue Leasing their SUV Mercedes and Getting Tans. Thanks Bailouts!

For those worried about taxpayer losses, this next chart will cause you to lose sleep.

FHA loan performance is slightly better than subprime, option ARM and Alt-A. Hurray! We as taxpayers are going to lose a great deal of money.

Very interesting data. Check out the PDF of the full report for yourself.

The banking cartel

Does the housing bubble seem like it is resolved? Can we celebrate the bottom and the return to prosperity? Can the government sponsored banking cartel hold together and keep prices high through supply restriction? Is that a good thing?

The supply constriction cartel arrangement is particularly maddening. Does anyone remember gas lines in the 1970s? How do you feel about OPEC?

There is really no difference between OPEC and the banking cartel withholding our housing inventory. For their own enrichment both cartels act to control the supply of a resource we cannot do without. If houses are made scarce enough, the few desperate buyers will bid higher than they otherwise would. That is the goal of the cartel.

Not just is our government permitting this injustice, they are actively encouraging it.

  • Your government wants you to overpay for housing.
  • Your government wants you to either settle for less housing or pledge all your income to their lending overlords.
  • Your government wants existing debtors to overpay for housing and stay trapped underwater in debt servitude for a lifetime.
  • Your government wants to screw you in order to enrich stupid greedy bankers.

An example of the cartel in action….

807 Days on the Market

133 Danbrook Kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 133 DANBROOK Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $320,000

Home Purchase Price … $445,000

Home Purchase Date …. 3/25/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(144,200)

Percent Change ………. -28.1%

Annual Appreciation … -5.3%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$320,000 ………. Asking Price

$11,200 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

5.16% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$308,800 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$67,471 ………. Income Requirement

$1,688 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$277 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$27 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$80 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,072 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$161 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$360 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$23 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$40 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,614 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$3,200 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$3,200 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$3,088 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$11,200 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$20,688 ………. Total Cash Costs

$24,700 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$45,388 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 133 DANBROOK Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

Beds: 1

Baths: 1 bath

Home size: 822 sq ft

($389 / sq ft)

Lot Size: n/a

Year Built: 2004

Days on Market: 807

MLS Number: S521349

Property Type: Condominium, Residential

Community: Turtle Ridge

Tract: Ashg

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

This property is in backup or contingent offer status.

Best deal in Turtle Ridge! Better then a model, granite counters, designer paint, berber carpet, upgraded bathroom, and much more. There is a garage with direct access, a fireplace, and air conditioning. This is a primo location with access to Newport Beach, Fashion Island, The Spectrum and the Beach! There is a really nice community pool and spa with clubhouse and nearby walking trails. only way to be in the area for this price! Only one of a few 1 bedrooms every built!

Inspired by Soylent Green Is People….

Proposed Subsidies to Housing Market Prices Benefit Only Bankers

Many alternatives to large numbers of foreclosures are being proposed by pundits in Washington. Their only common denominator is benefit to the banks.

Irvine Home Address … 30 NIGHTHAWK Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $720,000

{book1}

Once I lived the life of a millionaire,

spending my money, I didn't care

I carried my friends out for a good time,

buying bootleg liquor, champagne and wine

Then I began to fall so low,

I didn't have a friend, and no place to go

So if I ever get my hand on a dollar again,

I'm gonna hold on to it till them eagle's grin

Nobody knows you when you down and out

In my pocket not one penny,

and my friends I haven't any

But If I ever get on my feet again,

then I'll meet my long lost friend

It's mighty strange, without a doubt

Nobody knows you when you down and out

I mean when you down and out

Bessie Smith — Nobody Knows You When You're Down and Out

The indulgent lives of the Great Housing Bubble were last seen during the Roaring Twenties, another era notable for its sequence of financial bubbles. First came the Florida land boom (from Wikipedia):

The Florida land boom of the 1920s was Florida's first real estate bubble, which burst in 1925, leaving behind entire new cities and the remains of failed development projects such as Isola di Lolando in north Biscayne Bay. The preceding land boom shaped Florida's future for decades and created entire new cities out of the Everglades land that remain today. The story includes many parallels to the modern real estate boom, including the forces of outside speculators, easy credit access for buyers, and rapidly-appreciating property values.

That massive bubble was followed by a stock market bust (from Wikipedia):

The Roaring Twenties, the decade that led up to the Crash, was a time of wealth and excess. Despite caution of the dangers of speculation, many believed that the market could sustain high price levels. Shortly before the crash, economist Irving Fisher famously proclaimed, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." However, the optimism and financial gains of the great bull market were shattered on "Black Tuesday", October 29, 1929, when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) collapsed. Stock prices plummeted on that day, and continued to fall at an unprecedented rate for a full month.

The October 1929 crash came during a period of declining real estate values in the United States (which peaked in 1925) near the beginning of a chain of events that led to the Great Depression, a period of economic decline in the industrialized nations.

It is interesting that they reversed the order; the real estate bubble came first, and the stock market bubble came after. The Great Depression followed the Roaring 20s, just like night follows day or a hangover follows drinking, the Great Recession follows The Great Housing Bubble. Massive Ponzi schemes and credit binges always end badly.

Foreclosed Dreams

The Obama administration’s remedy for the housing crisis benefits bankers, not homeowners.

By David Moberg

Like millions of other Americans, Alicia and Jorge Hernandez are hanging on to their home by a thread. Six years ago they bought their brick bungalow in a working-class neighborhood on Chicago’s southwest side for $175,000, a bargain compared to homes nearby that sold for $250,000. Jorge, who earned $18 per hour as a roofer, had earnestly avoided debt, but a mortgage broker offered him a fixed interest rate of 5.25 percent on a conventional loan. With a growing family, now including three young children, it seemed like a good deal.

[Kareem Rashed stands outside of a foreclosed home on March 12, 2010 in Bridgeport, Conn. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)]

Then the housing bubble burst in 2007. On each block throughout the neighborhood, several families—at first mainly those with sub-prime loans—lost their homes to foreclosure. Housing prices fell sharply. The Hernandez home is now worth $119,000, well below the $146,000 still owed on the mortgage. The construction industry imploded and Jorge, 41, could find only scattered jobs. He now collects about $220 per week in unemployment benefits.

“We are a little bit struggling to make our payments,” says Alicia, 39, her voice breaking as she juggles her two-year-old son. “We’ve cut out what luxuries we could, like cable. Now we have to decide to continue our lifestyle or cut everything and make the mortgage payments.”

The family ran through its savings, then borrowed from relatives as Jorge’s income continued to slide. But unlike many unemployed workers in past recessions, they had no equity in their home as collateral for temporary credit. Early this year, they fell behind on their mortgage by three months.

Alicia looked for an administrative assistant job similar to the one she had after college, but nothing turned up. Then she found a job for $8 per hour at a bulk-mailing subcontractor to the U.S. Census Bureau. But even with that paycheck and Jorge’s unemployment compensation, they owe more than half of their monthly income for the mortgage. “Like many Americans, we were hoping next year would be better,” Alicia says. “We just relied on hope. That was our mistake.”

No, this family did not make a mistake. In fact, they did everything right. This is the very first borrower-in-distress profile I have seen anywhere in the media where the family truly did nothing wrong. The reporter's search was worth while because it is very difficult to find a borrower-in-distress who didn't borrow too much using unstable terms, usually to capture appreciation or to get free money to spend. This borrower was a working-class guy providing for his family. If there is any family that I would like to see benefit from the various bailouts, it would be this family. It is the other ninety-nine out of one hundred that irritate me.

The Hernandez family is the new face of the deepening home mortgage foreclosure crisis—a crisis that is increasingly affecting suburban and upper middle-income homeowners as well.

Note the setup here: the reporter advocates a political position in this article, so it was important that people feel like they are saving this family rather than the HELOC abusing squatters I profile here every day.

In the earlier waves, most foreclosures involved speculators or holders of sub-prime loans that were designed to fail, according to the North Carolina-based Center for Responsible Lending, an advocacy and research organization. Its research shows the fault in the sub-prime collapse lay with the loans, not the people who borrowed the money. Many of them could have qualified for a conventional, fixed-rate mortgage and not defaulted.

Although the new wave of foreclosures this year will involve other exotic mortgages (especially interest-only and payment-option adjustable rate mortgages), most recent serious deliquencies and foreclosures involve conventional loans.

Around three-fifths of homeowners seeking loan modifications under President Barack Obama’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) cite loss of income as the cause of their hardship. At least one-fourth—and by some estimates one-third, heading toward one-half—of all mortgages are currently “under water,” meaning that they are worth more than the market value of the home. Under those conditions, homeowners have strong incentives to walk away, leaving investors holding their costly mortgage and devalued property.

Very good synopsis of the problem. This author did his homework.

The White House tinkers

Responding in late March to these new trends in the housing crisis, the Obama administration rolled out the latest version of HAMP, which offers new provisions to deal with underwater mortgages and unemployment, some of which might help homeowners like the Hernandez family.

But consumer advocates like the Center for Responsible Lending and the Washington-based National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) are not happy with the Treasury Department’s proposals. “We continue to tinker around the edges of foreclosure prevention,” says NCRC President John Taylor. “We rush to give banks tax breaks, but we dawdle to help homeowners.

The fundamental problem is that the Obama administration and Congress are reluctant to use the legal, political and judicial forces at their disposal to cut through the Gordian knot of special interests that block meaningful reforms. Instead, banks, investors, mortgage service companies, rating agencies and other financial interests that caused the problem are encouraged and bribed (“incentivized”) to modify troubled loans voluntarily.

The fundamental problem is that any reform is a bailout loaded with moral hazard. The lack of progress is a great thing, and the administration should be reluctant to institute some reform that will further hurt the prudent at the expense of the foolish.

Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for TARP, warns that this scheme “risks helping the few, and for the rest, merely spread[s] out the foreclosure crisis over the course of several years, at significant taxpayer expense and even at the expense of those borrowers” who struggle to pay modified loans but eventually default.

I profiled this guy before. He clearly understands the problem.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, advocates giving defaulting homeowners the option of staying in their homes and renting at market rates for five or more years. Besides keeping people in their homes, the right to rent gives them bargaining leverage with banks to modify loans, since bankers have no interest in being landlords.

I really like Dean Baker's idea. If lenders knew their payments could get knocked down to rental levels, they would never loan beyond what the cashflow of the property would warrant. I proposed something similar in The Great Housing Bubble. Lenders created more debt than borrowers could service. This is more difficult to accomplish if lenders are limited by a rental equivalence income stream.

Consumer advocates, such as NCRC, National Peoples Action and the Center for Responsible Lending, fought hard for Congress to give bankruptcy courts the power to modify home mortgages—the only major property excluded from the courts’ oversight. But the proposal was defeated in the Senate, which prompted legislation sponsor Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) to say the banks “own the place.”

Yes, the banks own the Senate. I do happen to agree that bankruptcy judges should not be able to reduce mortgage principal. It would merely encourage borrowers to overextend themselves and petition for relief later. I do like that it would burn the banks though.

With the support of the NCRC, Rep. Brad Miller (D-N.C.) and 26 other congressional Democrats recently proposed that the Treasury use its existing powers to set up an equivalent to the Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC), the successful New Deal-era agency. The new HOLC would use the power of eminent domain to buy up large quantities of distressed loans at their current market value, then modify and refinance them.

I only like that idea if the borrowers are kicked to the curb. The programs sounds like a direct government subsidy to be doled out as political largess in poor Democratic districts.

Both homeowners at risk of foreclosure and the government need such powerful tools to get deals done quickly and to shift the costs of resolving the crisis to investors and institutions that were responsible. Such cost-shifting could weaken some banks, but oddly, it could also be the best option available—it’s certainly better than foreclosure—in most cases for banks and investors, as well as for homeowners.

Everyone seems to think foreclosure is a big problem. It's not. Foreclosure is not the problem; foreclosure is the cure.

Bleeding homeowners

… But many investors or banks hope they can bleed homeowners as long as possible, even though many banks now feel pressure from their growing inventory of distressed loans and the increasing risk of underwater borrowers walking away in strategic default. And they hold out hope for bigger government bailouts, like proposals to pay banks to reduce principal on distressed loans.

Efforts to modify distressed loans started in a modest, ineffective way under former President George W. Bush. The Obama administration has continued to rely on voluntary action by financial interests, and has committed larger amounts of money to support and stabilize home ownership through loan guarantees, purchase of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, incentives to banks and new homeowners, and its modifying of mortgages through the Making Homes Affordable programs (including HAMP).

An ineffectual solution

… Though homeowner advocates lament the loss of $7 trillion in wealth with the housing crash, much of that was bubble money. Trying to prop up home prices below their historic trends helps no one ultimately, says Baker. …

The efforts to forestall foreclosure need to be stopped, and the foreclosures need to occur unimpeded. Lenders were unconscionably stupid during the housing bubble, and they need to bear the brunt of pain through losses and oppressive regulation or they will repeat their mistakes.

It was obvious to anyone who bothered to care that most borrowers in the bubble era could only afford their homes with Ponzi borrowing; however, lenders did not care. They believed they had no risk. The collateral would appreciate endlessly, the loans were sold to investors, and any other risk could be mitigated with a credit default swap form AIG. With no concern for risk, lenders underwrote really foolish loans.

I am opposed to any effort to save borrowers or lenders. It is sad that families like the one in this article were hurt, but it is not sad that HELOC abusing squatters like today's owners were hurt. We need neither irresponsible lending nor irresponsible borrowing, and bailouts encourage both.

Stop the bailouts!

Yet another HELOC abusing squatter

The owners of today's featured property heard the Siren's Song of unlimited spending money, and they went Ponzi.

  • This property was purchased on11/17/1995 for $353,000. The owners used a $335,350 first mortgage and a $17,650 down payment.
  • On 11/6/2008 they refinanced with a $316,000 first mortgage — which looks like they paid down debts, but…
  • On 12/9/1998 they obtained a $79,000 stand-alone second.
  • On 1/14/2002 they obtained a $120,000 HELOC.
  • On 1/13/2004 they obtained a $245,000 HELOC.
  • On 6/23/2005 they refinancedd their first mortgage for $723,350.
  • Total property debt is $723,350.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $380,000.
  • Total squatting time is at least 10 months.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/11/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 02/04/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 10/27/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Have you noticed that someone who withdrew $380,000 and squatted for six months — a horrible example of theft — looks like a mild case? By Irvine standards, these people were not extreme. I couldn't even give them an F because they didn't keep gaming the system. I think they left a couple hundred thousand dollars in the bank vault that they could have appropriated by signing a few more documents.

Irvine Home Address … 30 NIGHTHAWK Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $720,000

Home Purchase Price … $353,000

Home Purchase Date …. 11/17/1995

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $323,800

Percent Change ………. 104.0%

Annual Appreciation … 4.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$720,000 ………. Asking Price

$144,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

5.16% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$576,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$151,810 ………. Income Requirement

$3,149 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$624 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$60 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$80 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,913 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$775 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$672 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$293 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$90 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,848 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$7,200 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,200 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,760 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$144,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$164,160 ………. Total Cash Costs

$43,600 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$207,760 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 30 NIGHTHAWK Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds:: 4

Baths:: 2

Sq. Ft.:: 2076

Lot Size:: 6,077 Sq. Ft.

Property Type:: Residential, Single Family

Style:: One Level, Contemporary

Year Built:: 1976

Community:: Woodbridge

County:: Orange

MLS#:: S610039

——————————————————————————

Highly desired single level home on the park! House is nicely maintained and cared for. Private atrium off two bedrooms! Step down formal livingroom. Wood flooring in entry, kitchen and dining/family room. Master bedroom has walk-in closet. Oversized garage. Nicely landscaped yard mirrors the parks atmosphere from the backyard! Walk to schools and lake. Does need a roof and some corrective work in the master bathroom.

Does need a roof and some corrective work in the master bathroom. WTF? These people took out hundreds of thousands of dollars in HELOC money, and not just didn't they update the property, they refused to do even routine maintenance. What did they spend the money on?

If this gets sold to new owners who plan to run a brothel, they will not need to repaint.

Reader Email

What is that?

1888 NIXON Ave Placentia, CA 92870

I see a monkey's face tilted slightly with his hand reaching over the top and grabbing his forehead or scratching an eyebrow. I see two bulbous eyes with dark pupils, a thin burger-bun mouth and his right ear (on the left).

I also see a child reflected in profile below the window apparently being stalked by the ghost in the mirror.

What do you see?