Inventory as of 23rd December: 202.

Lowest: 2 Verde @ $246/SF

Highest: 36 Boulder View @ $1,429/SF

At this rate, we might dip below 200 before the New Year. It's good news for sellers, but not so great for buyers. The market conditions have changed a lot since January this year. The inventory has dipped 65.1% since January. Median List Price has shot up by 45.6%, and Median list Price/SF by 16.4%. Last January when I started writing for Irvine Housing Blog, I knew Irvine was on path to recovery, defying all charts and projected prices and inventory by the experts, but I didn't anticipate this big a change.

Today, I will profile a property that has defied mostly all micro and macro market conditions, and continues to hold a good price of $376/SF despite being more than twenty five year old townhouse. It's been upgraded and updated beautifully. Another half-a-million dollar condo on Irvine, less than 1500 SF area.

131 Goldenrod #70, Irvine CA 92614

Listing Price: $530,000

Price/ SF: $376/SF

Area: 1411 SF

Beds/ Baths: 3 Beds/ 2.5 Bath

Year Built: 1985

Even though the condominium is less than 1500 SF, it has a functional floor plan. You enter into the living room/ dining room. The staircase takes up one side of the wall, and the powder room sits neatly below the staircase. There is a bay window on side of the living room, which to me is the focal point of this space. Kitchen is a separate room, and it has an attached space which can be used as a family room. There is a small patio off the kitchen, and a two car garage attached to the patio. Sometimes it's not the nicest things to have, a patio between garage and home, but some Irvine townhouses have this kind of floor plan. In my opinion, the only con for this property is, it's attached, and that severely restricts natural light and ventilation, limiting the number of windows for each room. The offset space between the house and the curb is good enough to have some green space, something that we don't see in the recent construction. The houses are moving close to each other, and to the curb. The Architects and Developers are maximizing the usable space, and construct on every allowable inch.

Monthly Expenses:

Listing Price: $530,000

HOA Dues: $297/ Month

Current Mortgage Rates: 3.25%

Monthly Mortgage: $1,847

Property Tax: 1.03361%

Monthly Property Tax: $456

Mello Roos: $148/ Annually

Total Monthly Expenses: $2612

Price/ SF, Monthly: $1.85/ SF

(There will be additional Property Insurance, Earthquake Insurance and Home Owner's Insurance expenses, and maintenance expenses considering the age of the property)

Here is another condominium in a very elite Irvine area. It's housed in a guard gated community. It has tandem parking. It has no patio to boast of, not even a small space to stand and water the plants. The offset to the street probably is the minimal required to get a Building Permit. But it shows up on the popular Irvine property list for the week. How are the monthly expenses?

Listing Price: $375,000

Estimated Mortgage: $1310

Monthly Property Tax @ 1.0593: $331

Monthly Mello Roos: $92

HOA Dues: $405

Total Monthly Expenses: $2,138

Price/SF, Monthly: $1.98/SF

Which one would you buy?

Or the question should be, will you buy an attached condominium with tandem parking, or detached garage at these prices?

What's your idea of a perfect condominium?

Discuss below, or share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.

Inventory on Dec 16th, 2012: 226.

12/12/12 passed and the world didn’t come to an end. But inventory in Irvine seems to be coming to an end. If things continue at the same pace, we might soon see Irvine go below 200 by 2013. The new construction is selling out too, irrespective of the air quality due to highways in vicinity, or landfills with potential health risks. A bubble city in the bubble county, we are different people, immune to such things, as long as we live in the safest and most desirable city in America. The Great Housing Depression didn’t drag us down much, and what the fiscal cliff can do will be seen in the future. Right now, it’s a seller’s market. Even though we might never see the Kool Aid prices of 2006-2007, we have recovered better than projected, and luckily we didn’t hit the projected bottom.

60 Reunion, Irvine CA 92603

Listing Price: $509,000

Beds/ Baths: 2 Beds/ 2.5 baths

Year Built: 2004

Property Type: Condominium

Style: Two level, Santa Barbara

Area: 1145 SF

Price/ SF: $445/ SF

Monthly Expenses:

Property Tax at 1.04938: $5342

Mello Roos: $2,291

Monthly mortgage at 3.25%: $1,763

HOA Dues: $190/ Month

Monthly Tax + Mello Roos: $636

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $2,589 ($2.26/SF)

Buy now or be priced out forever? Let’s see how the “Sage- Reunion” condominiums in Quail Hill have performed in the past two years.

46 Reunion $406/SF

28 Reunion $401/SF

106 Reunion $436/SF

54 Reunion $350/SF

44 Reunion $420/SF

Inventory has diminished considerably (January 2011: around 700, January 2013 projected around 200). The sellers are taking advantage of the inventory and adding a premium.

In 2008, when we were in the market for a condominium, we looked at one of the Reunion condos. 110 Reunion. It was listed at $560,000, and sold at $558,000 ($429/SF, down from $557/SF in 2007). Still, we didn’t think it was discounted enough. We were looking at the projected Case-Shiller Index, and the shadow inventory and many such data that pointed at a much lower justified Price/SF. In 2009, these properties sold for $360/SF. But the expected doom and gloom spared Irvine, much like 12.12.12.

Premium to be the safest city, best school district, diverse neighborhood, fashion capital is fine. All it takes is one buyer to change the statistics of the neighborhood, but where do we draw a line?

When does justified premium turn into Kool Aid?

Will these condominiums see the exorbitant prices of $500+/SF?

What is the right price for Irvine condos in your opinion?

Comment below, or discuss at Talk Irvine.

231 homes for sale as of December 09, 2012

In 2008, there were articles everywhere about the doom and gloom that shadow inventory would create in 2012. Fear stopped us from buying, but hope and change brought by the low interest rates, and low inventory changed the scene by the time we hit 2012. Each village of Irvine hit a low once during this four year period, some recovering faster than others, some sliding faster than others. 2012 has become a happy transition year for the entire city from the great housing depression to the new era of zero growth. The property prices might be climbing, but when you compare the price with the rate of inflation and add in the low interest rates, not much has changed other than the outlook of the buyer.

How much has the outlook changed? What does $500,000 buy today in Irvine?

Woodbridge:

Address: 52 Wetstone #37

Listing Price: $499,900

Area: 1296 SF (2 Beds/ 2 Bathrooms)

Price/ SF: $386/SF

El Camino Real:

Address: 14821 Groveview Ln

Listing Price: $499,000

Area: 1156 SF (4 beds/ 2 baths)

Price/ SF: $432/SF

Turtle Ridge:

Address: 125 Jadestone

Listing Price: $498,000

Area: 1200 SF (2 beds/ 2 baths)

Price/ SF: $415/SF

Airport Area:

Address: 1118 Scholarship St

Listing Price: $490,000

Area: 1200 SF (3 Beds/ 2 baths)

Price/SF: $360/SF

Woodbury:

Address: 22 Calypso

Listing Price: $489,000

Area: 1441 SF ( 2 Beds/ 2.5 Baths)

Price/ SF: $339/SF

University Park:

Address: 9 Featherwood #1

Listing Price: $485,000

Area: 1185 SF (2 Beds/ 2.5 Baths)

Price: $363/SF

Quail Hill:

Address: 60 Reunion

Listing Price: $509,000

Area: 1145 SF (2 Beds/ 2.5 Baths)

Price: $445/SF

What are your thoughts?

Would you buy a condominium at any price, and update it if necessary, just to live in Irvine?

What brings you to Irvine? Is it the safety ranking? Is it the school district?

Share your thoughts at Talk Irvine, or comment below.

Two Campanile Plans are on the market in Northpark Square are on the market at the same price. Neither back to major freeways or busy streets, both are almost at the same distance from the entrance to the community, both are the same shade of beige, and except for a slightly different treatment for entrance, it would be hard to tell them apart. That would be only if you are familiar with the area, and know the neighborhood.

For a potential client scouting via internet, it’s an easy task. Listed at $420/SF, the Realtor is bound to make a lot of money when the deal closes, but still, there are five grainy pictures of the property on the MLS. Grandfathered Blackberry models took better pictures than that. The schools aren’t listed correct. It’s not Pioneer Middle School anymore, it’s Orchard Hills. The HOA dues cannot be $1. At that amount, the HOA will end up spending more money processing your check. What riled me up was ““UPGRADES are to many to mention”. Really? I am not even questioning the use of spell-check here. The client who spent his money and time on upgrades at least deserves two lines explaining the work done on the house.

But then, tables are turning. Inventory is low. There are currently 241 homes on the market. Anything and everything will sell, and at any price. The house will probably sell itself without any help of the MLS pictures, or videos, or accurate listing data. “Stainless Steal appliances” will be just fine, the buyer will get the idea. 92606 is OK too. If you really zeroed in on the Northpark Square area, it shows on your search via Redfin. Keywords matter more maybe.

Here are the addresses of the listed properties:

24 Spyrock, Irvine CA 92602

14 Longvale, Irvine CA 92602

Both are 3 Bedroom/ 2.5 bath Single Family Residences with 2000SF area, and 4000SF lot. They were built in 2006. Both are listed at $840,000, $420/SF.

Here is how Campanile homes performed last year when the inventory was in the 700-800 range:

2011:

9 Longvale $365/SF

8 Inglenook $322/SF

20 Longvale $345/SF

64 Masterson $365/SF

21 Longvale $385/SF

15 Inglenook $339/SF

In the zip code 92602, inventory has dropped 30% on month-to-month basis, and 68% in year-to-year basis. Median sold price has grown 11.4% Price/SF on month-to-month basis, and 5.7% on year-to-year basis.

What do you think?

Is the Kool-Aid ready to drink?

Will the banks start doling out equity loans again?

What are your thoughts about Campanile properties, and Northpark Square area?

Share your thoughts and comments below, or at Talk Irvine, but before you leave, here is a bonus MLS listing picture for your viewing pleasure! This is the only picture the Realtor has used to list a San Simeon property in the guard gated Northpark!

This West Irvine property is ready to be sold at $878,800 thirteen years after being bought at $402,500. The property is well maintained going by the MLS pictures, and the location is good. The schools – Myford Elementary School, Pioneer Middle School and Beckman High School all have excellent parent ratings and test scores, and a perfect 10 API. The listing price is $283/SF at a time when rest of the Irvine is crossing the $350/SF mark and heading towards $400/SF.

2 Ivy Lane, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $878,800

Beds/Bath: 4 Beds/ 3 Baths

Area: 3,100 SF

Price/ SF: $283/SF

Lot Size: 5,135SF

Builders Tract Name: Briarwood

Builders Tract Code: BRIW

Builders Model Code: 3

Is it a good deal, or is the property just keeping with rest of the West Irvine neighborhood prices?

Here are similar properties listed for sale:

3 Freedom Place $300/SF

7 Parma $362/SF

12 Proclamation Way $352/SF

Here is the sales history for similar properties in the past two years:

45 Elizabeth $290/SF

38 Elizabeth Ln $271/SF

98 Briar $270/SF

15 Elizabeth Ln $278/SF

As of today, there are exactly 250 properties on sale in the Irvine market. 92602 has 24 properties listed for sale, and it’s dropped 72% from last year. Median list price is $894,000, and it’s up 79% from last year. Median listing price/SF is $348, and it’s up 17% from last year. Irvine real estate, and the 92602 area statistics have improved.

Here is a chart from Zillow that shows the increase in value per square feet in Irvine, and in West Irvine:

We are not close to the bubble numbers, but we didn’t follow the graphs and charts at the onset of the Great Housing Depression and head deep south. Many walked away, but many found an opportunity to invest, and now that things appear stabilized, many more are buying. For those who bought at the peak of the real estate bubble, it might be a long road to recovery. For those who bought before 2003, there is hope that things might turn around.

What do you think?

Is this house priced right, or is it priced to sell?

Have you bought or sold recently?

Share your views. Comment below, or discuss at Talk Irvine.