Inventory on 25th January 2012: 2-1-6.

Irvine seems to be settling in the new normal of low inventory. As expected, property values are rising steadily keeping pace with the declining inventory. Condominiums that foreclosed for around $500,000 are now back into the market after some sprucing up for a bigger price tag. Good news for sellers, good news for Realtors and Brokers, and great news for flippers. Flipping as a career choice seems to be making sense again, just as day trading is.

72 Alevera St, Irvine CA 92618

Bed rooms/ Bathrooms: 4 Beds/ 2.5 Baths

Area: 1500 SF

Year Built: 2002

Type: Detached Condominium

Builders Tract Name: Aldea

Builders Tract Code: ALDE

Builders Model Code: 4

Elementary School: Oak Creek

Middle School: Lakeside

High School: Woodbridge

Listing Price: $639,000

Price/ SF: $426

HOA Dues: $175

Monthly mortgage: $2,295

Annual Property Taxes @ 1.033: $6600

Annual Mello Roos: $1480

Monthly Taxes + Mello Roos: $674

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $3144

This house was foreclosed in November 2012 for $498,000.

Inventory has gone down 23.1% in Oak Creek, and listing price/sf has gone up by 3.7%.

Comparable properties in the neighborhood:

1. 50 Alevera, 3 Bedroom-2.5 Bathroom detached condominium listed at $430/SF.

2. 16 Alevera, 4 Bedroom-3 Bathroom detached condominium sold for $403/SF in November 2012.

3. 85 Alevera, 3 Bedroom-2.5 Bathroom detached condominium sold for $416/SF in October 2012.

What do you think? Will the prices continue moving upwards to adjust to the spiraling inventory levels and push us into a bubble prematurely? Or does Irvine deserve a bubble bigger and faster than the rest of the nation because we are the safest, most desirable and fashionable city, and most recently one of the best run cities in the country? Will you still buy in Irvine if you see prices go up by more than 20% annually on the homes that you wanted to buy?

It’s too soon to predict buy and hold, but flip seems to be the mantra of the moment.

Discuss on Talk Irvine: http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3494.0.html

Inventory: 227 Homes for sale on January 21, 2013.

But, there are only 23 homes in the popular $500,000-$600,000 range, and only 66 in $500,000-$750,000 range. This inventory includes attached condominiums, detached condominiums and may be some single family residences. It’s not easy as before to find an identical home to compare and contrast as it was before. Like I said in my previous blogs, Irvine is turning into a seller’s market again, and we are in a mini-bubble right now. Whether this bubble will just grow bigger will be for time and economic conditions to tell, but right now Irvine homeowners are listing their homes for a premium price, and getting it, almost.

36 San Clemente, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price above $500,000 for an attached condominium? Check.

Price/ SF way above recent comparable sales in the area? Check.

At least two HOA dues and an additional Mello Roos payment? Check.

Itty-bitty backyard with enough space to fit two chairs in it? Check.

Perigraniteel and upgrades that you might want to.. umm.. term eclectic? Check.

There is something magical about the first sip of Kool Aid.. those who drank it warned you not to drink it, but such is life, everyone wants to know the taste first hand!

Listing Price: $539,000

Monthly Mortgage: $1893

Monthly HOA: $362

Monthly Mello Roos: $100

Monthly Property Taxes: $475

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $2830

36 San Clemente is a Brisbane Plan B home. It has two bedrooms, two and half bathrooms. There are two patios, one at the entrance, and one off the kitchen. The entry is nice, feels grand for a 1500 SF condominium. The staircase inside adds to the grandeur. For someone looking to rent it out, it might be a good opportunity, but one of the Brisbane properties in the North Park area was leased at $1.62/SF. That would bring in $2430/Month. Not much profitable as an investment property unless you have eyes on the probable bubble and boom value down the lane.

Here is a brief sales history of the Brisbane homes (2012):

01/13 37 Spring Valley $304/SF

05/08 34 Spring Valley $248/SF

05/09 40 Spring Valley $258/SF

05/16 41 Burlingame $281/SF

09/11 58 Burlingame $308/SF

09/14 73 Burlingame $276/SF

Do you think this property makes a good “investment opportunity” as stated in the MLS listing?

What does investment opportunity mean when the property is listed way above the comparable sales, and the trending lease Price/SF won’t cover the fixed monthly expenses, diving into negative cash flow?

Would you buy a property in anticipation of the “probably bubble”

Comment below, or share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.

Inventory: 214 homes.

Two hundred seems to be the new normal for the Truman World. We go up a few properties, down a few properties, but for the past two months, we have been around that number. Realtors are talking about multiple offers, listings flying off the shelves, and very soon they will say “Buy now or you will be priced out forever” without even feeling guilty about it. Average list prices are trending higher with each passing month, and as of now we are entering a seller’s market. But before we declare a mini bubble in Irvine due to low inventory, let’s see if inventory is really as low as the numbers we see. I am not talking shadow inventory from the foreclosures. New homes. Last week, I came across an article on OC Register about new home sales by The Irvine Company. According to the article, 1346 new homes were sold in 2012. That’s right, more than a thousand homes. 774 homes were sold in 2011.

1346 New Homes + 600 Regular Sales = Around 1946 homes were on the market in January, 2012.

774 New Homes + 710 Regular Sales = Around 1484 homes were on the market in January 2011.

What do you think? Will the influx of more new homes bring the market down? We have five thousand homes approved near the El Toro-Great Park neighborhood within the next ten years.

402 Rockefeller #210, Irvine CA 92612

This is one of the elite airport area condominiums built last year. It comes with concierge service.

Listing Price: $751,000

Beds/ Baths: 2 Bedrooms/ 2.5 Bathrooms

Area: 1841 SF

Year Built: 2011

Property Type: Condominium

Builder Tract Name: Lennox

Builder Tract Code: CPWLX

Monthly Mortgage: $2638

HOA Dues: $719

Property Tax: $530

Mello Roos: $93

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $ 3980

This is not the only property on the market in this tract. Here is the list of other listed properties:

402 South Rockefeller #102 $378/SF

402 South Rockefeller #105 $397/SF

402 South Rockefeller #108 $346/SF

402 South Rockefeller #109 $443/SF

402 South Rockefeller #201 $401/SF

402 South Rockefeller #204 $366/SF

402 South Rockefeller #209 $444/SF

402 South Rockefeller #205 $359/SF

402 Rockefeller #113 $363/SF

402 Rockefeller #116 $357/SF

402 Rockefeller #210 $408/SF

402 Rockefeller #212 $371/SF

402 Rockefeller #214 $337/SF

402 Rockefeller #215 $376/SF

Does that feel like an influx of inventory in the airport area?

This property has been on the market for more than one hundred days and so have a few similar ones. If the real inventory is around two hundred, and every buyer is desperate, and things are flying off the shelves, why haven’t the airport condos flown yet? Agreed there is a huge price tag for HOA Dues, but I am sure the Company did demographics and requirements study before proposing the community, and City of Irvine did its own study and projections before approving it.

Comment below, or share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.

Inventory on January 5, 2013: 181.

Inventory has dropped 8.6% on month to month basis.

Median List Price/ SF has increased 1.4% on month to month basis.

In an article, Orange County Register says “Last year, the (Irvine Pacific) company sold 1,436 new homes, nearly twice what it sold in 2011 when it ranked fourth in the nation for master planned community home sales according to an annual survey from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Ten neighborhoods and two entire villages sold out. And what's happened to every neighborhood they started selling in January 2010? Sold out, too”.

But, two weeks ago Robert Shiller said, “A lot of people seem to think that if the market turns around, that means more of the same, meaning another big boom. I don't think that's in the cards. We might see home prices go up a little bit, you know, a little bit above inflation, maybe. Not likely that we'll see a real boom.”

Shiller and Roubini have always given a pessimistic projection of the economy. But, in my opinion, when irrational exuberance begins, it’s good to keep ourselves educated of things to come. We have not entered a bubble phase but with unemployment for Orange County at 7.0%, Dow Jones at 13,435, low inventory and buyer desperation, Irvine can expect a mini bubble this year.

What are your Real Estate plans for the year? Buying or selling?

The featured property today is one of the “Wisteria” detached condominiums of West Irvine. In a neighborhood where single family homes were selling in the high $500s last year, we have a detached condominium listed for $619,000. Given the market conditions, it might sell quickly also, at the listing price or even more. There are already talks about how all cash offers are pushing others away from the market. Remember those fairy tales where princes came from a land far away? I can imagine Realtors telling the story of the client coming from land far away with briefcases filled with dollars to make an all cash offer!

95 Waterman #155, Irvine CA 92602

Beds/ Baths: 4 Beds/ 2.75 Bath

Area: 1730 SF

Year Built: 2001

Builder Tract Name: Wisteria

Builder Tract Code: WIST

Builder’s Name: California Pacific

Builder’s Model Code: 4

Listing Price: $619,000

HOA Dues: $174 Monthly

Property tax @ 1.0593: $6557 Annually

Mello Roos: $1278 Annually

Monthly Property Tax+ Mello Roos: $652

Monthly Mortgage: $2194

Fixed Monthly Expenses: $3,020

Here is how Wisteria homes have performed in the past two years:

2011:

85 Avondale $344/SF

49 Avondale $366/SF

80 Glen Arbor $305/SF

66 Glen Arbor $331/SF

46 Congress Pl $321/SF

68 Glen Arbor $342/SF

2012:

86 Deermont $323/SF

73 Glen Arbor $350/SF

105 Waterman $361/SF

84 Deermont $350/SF

111 Waterman $344/SF

In the past two years, the Wisteria homes have steadily marched from $300/SF to $350/SF, and now consolidating that position further with the listed property at $358/SF.

Property History:

Oct 2001: $332,000 ($191/SF)

April 2004: $660,000 ($381/SF)

What would you do?

Join the frenzy and buy before you are priced out forever?

Hold off, because you can spot a bubble, and a recession?

Comment below, or discuss at Talk Irvine.

While the world is busy counting down to the New Year, we, the residents of Unicornville did a countdown of our own. Lo and behold, the inventory is below 200. 193 properties on the market as of December 31st,2012. Good news for the home owners, and not so bad news for the buyers because the mortgage rates are at their lowest. Fiscal Cliff decisions tomorrow could drive the market either way for 2013 – if we dip into another recession, the projected legendary housing depression of 2012 might happen in 2013, or in 2014 when people start losing jobs again, and run out of benefits thereby stopping the mortgage payments, and foreclosing their properties. But, today, the post is about 2012.

Here is a report card for one my favorite Irvine villages, West Irvine:

Inventory is down by 72.8% Vs 2011.

Median Sold Price is up 37.2% Vs 2011.

Median Sold Price/ SF is up 3.3%.

All properties currently on the market in this village are above $300/SF, and one of them is $401/SF.

There are no condominiums (detached or attached) for sale.

33 Halifax Place, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $619,800

Price/SF: $401/SF

Beds/ Baths: 3 Beds/ 2.5 Bath

Area: 1,545 SF

Lot Size: 3,446 SF

Year Built: 1998

(There are only two pictures of the property on MLS- this is another trend I am observing as the market recovers. Realtors Some Realtors are putting very low quality pictures, and writing substandard descriptions of the property. Those who know the area and have kept a tab on related information will have no problem making a decision, but the Realtors are losing out on the clients who scan the pictures before visiting the property. For a $600,000 listing, the least you can do is spend 60 minutes preparing a detailed listing)

Monthly Expenses:

Mortgage @ 3.193% : $2,142

Property Tax @ 1.0593%: $548

Mello Roos: $89

Home Owner’s Association: $0.0

Total Fixed Monthly Expenses: $2,779

Here is a sales history for the “Liberty” homes in 2012:

26 Bowie Place $347/SF

34 Halifax Place $312/SF

84 Legacy Way $363/SF

87 Legacy Way $337/SF

31 Halifax Place $321/SF

11 Red Coat Place $344/SF

5 Bowie Place $333/SF

165 Church Place $353/SF

If this property sells for $401/SF, it will set a new sales trend and move the range of similar properties up. The first owner who bought in 1998 tripled his money in six years, but the next owner who held the property for eight years will take a loss of $60,000 if it sells at the list price. Timing is everything in real estate. 2006 and 2007 was the time to sell and go away, but once you are used to a life in Irvine, it’s hard to “go away”. And there aren’t many places to go away if you want wide roads, safety and good schools – all that comes with a price tag of $400/SF+.

What are your Real estate plans for 2012?

Are you joining we-the-sheeple of Irvine?

Are you running away from us and settling some place where the grass is greener?

What are your resolutions?

Please comment below, or share your views at Talk Irvine.