Inventory as of 13th April 2013: 208

Since the beginning of 2013, Irvine inventory has stayed close to the 200 range. We go up, and we go down, adjusting seasonally. As the sun shines more, and summer moving season begins, this might get heated up a bit, with everyone trying to test the market, listing their house at whatever price they deem is appropriate. There is always a foreign cash buyer with an all cash offer- if the house is in a desirable neighborhood, and not built by a second rate builder.

Here is a Single Family Residence, in Irvine, in a prestigious neighborhood, and still under $400/SF (thought the asking price is close to a million) which has become a bench mark for condominiums these days. It's very close to Beckman High School, and walk-able distance to Hicks Canyon Elementary school. The floor plan is nice, and the house is maintained well. It's only a decade old. Why the discount?

Of course there is a catch: It backs to Bryan. A couple of years ago, I didn't mind the street much and really bought into my Realtor's “this is Irvine, there is a 20' feet buffer to the street”. But after seeing how the buffer got pushed in Culver widening, I would put a thought or two before buying a house backing a street, even though there is a buffer in place now. Especially if I am putting a million dollars, in cash.

36 Whitford, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $978,000

HOA Dues: $214/ Month

Mello Roos: $3,169

Property tax rate: 1.0593

Estimated Property tax: $10,360

Estimated Monthly Mortgage: $4,814

Estimated Monthly Expenses

(Mortgage + Mello Roos + Property Tax +HOA) = $6,146

Beds/ Bath: 3 Bedrooms/ 2 Bathrooms

Area: 2450 SF

Price/ SF: $399

Year Built: 2003

Lot Size: 6634 SF

Community: Northpark Square

Builder's Tract Name: TRIANA

Builder's Tract Code: TRIA

Would you buy this property?

Does it bother you that the property backs to a busy street?

Since this property already falls under Tustin Unified school district, why not take a look at Tustin Ranch? The schools are almost the same, and the area is much quieter and nicer. Of course the house is a bit dated in comparison, but it's only $304/ SF, and the listing price is $899,999, HOA dues are only $38 per month, 5 beds and 3 baths. And 3-Car-garage too!

13282 Presidio Place, Tustin CA 92782

What do you think? Is it a fair comparison?

(About the title: These are the common words used by folks at Talk Irvine to describe the communities. North Park Square is the Step Sister of North Park, and Second Class Citizenship can be earned with a Tustin Ranch Home, all in jest! Both are beautiful communities, and have great schools)

Discuss at Talk Irvine: http://www.talkirvine.com/index.php/topic,3723.0.html

Oh boy! This is getting real. From December to now we talked about Irvine stabilizing, Irvine recovering, Irvine booming, Irvine bubbling, and as I write this blog, we are going through Irvine kool-aiding! If you thought $400/SF was pricing you out in this market, think again. This listing is asking for $610/SF. With million dollar homes being purchased in cash transactions, this too shall sell, and may be someone might feel charitable enough to bump up that asking price by another hundred thousand.

How to find out if it's an all cash purchase? Here is a tip one of the Realtors gave on Talk Irvine: It says in the Redfin link (under Listing Information) how the property was purchased (cash, conventional, FHA, etc). Like this one for 27 Early Lgt in Northwood, under buyer financing:

115 Lattice, Irvine CA 92603

Listing Price: $1,500,000

Beds/Bath: 4 Beds/ 2.5 Baths

Area: 2460 SF

Builders Tract Name: Olivos (OLIV)

Builders Tract Code: Olivos (OLIV)

Builders Name: California Pacific

Builders Model Name: Plan 2

Price/ SF: $610/SF

For anyone paying this price, especially if they are paying all cash, public schools might not be an attraction. But still, the house is served by all API 10 schools with great test scores.

Elementary: Vista Verde

Middle School: Rancho San Joaquin

High School: University

Here is a little history of the Olivos homes in Quail Hill:

2012:

5/11 126 Treehouse $438/SF

6/27 105 Lattice $480/SF

7/2 100 Treehouse $558/SF

8/1 111 Lattice $449/SF

12/10 121 Lattice $481/SF

2011:

3/11 101 Lattice $451/SF

5/18 130 Weathervane $403/SF

6/17 114 Treehouse $386/SF

That is almost doubling Price/SF from two years ago! Considering most of the purchases made these days are all cash (every Realtor has stories to tell you of these foreign cash buyers who see a house online, decide to make an offer and buy), how will this bubble sustain in the long run? Will the million dollar homes affect the sale prices of the middle class homes now around $800,000? In 2008, there was a long line of foreclosures and short sales in the market. What's the exit strategy now? Up, up and away? Implode?

What are your thoughts? Share on Talk Irvine.

In the tiny pocket of land tucked between the Mericort homes and Freeway 5 are the Tamarisk condominiums. All of them share walls with their neighbors and patio at the entrance (no backyards). Affiliated schools have great ratings even though they are technically in Tustin Unified School District. Of late, these homes are catching up with the market and moving up, up and away.

The current property to hit the market is priced above $500,000.

46 Trailing Vine, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $525,000

Beds/ Bath: 3 Beds/ 2.5 Bath

Area: 1395 SF

Price/ SF: $376

HOA Dues: $290

Builders Tract Name: Tamarisk

Builders Tract Code: TAMR

In 2006, this house sold for $595,000. We haven't hit the 2006 prices yet, but here is a neat little tool that calculates inflation adjustment. (http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/) According to this website, if this property was sold at $595,000, the same item would cost $685,212.15 based on cumulative rate of inflation at 15.2%. So, technically we are not at the 2006 bubble level. But salaries haven't increased, unemployment hasn't decreased.

Here is a brief history of Tamarisk homes in the past three years:

2013:

33 Trailing Vine $329/SF

38 League $354/SF

81 Trailing Vine $330/SF

2012:

16 New Season $274/SF

80 New Season $257/SF

94 New Season $295/SF

74 Trailing Vine $267/SF

2011:

62 New Season $297/SF

37 Trailing Vine $306/SF

Going by the sales history from the time these homes were built in 2005, they have bottomed in 2012, and 2013 brought in a miraculous recovery of $100~ /SF. While we salaried people with the down payment + mortgage combination will gasp in shock and awe at the trend of the market in 2013, a foreign cash buyer will probably pick up the property as an investment and rent it out within a month. In Irvine, in current market conditions where inventory is struggling to reach the two hundred mark, anything and everything will sell. This too shall!

Here is what $525,000 can also buy in Irvine:

146 Hedge Bloom in Woodbury

Listed at $519,000 ($440/SF)

6 Stanford Ct #3 in University Park

Listed at $519,000 ($433/SF)

80 Deermont in West Irvine

Listed at $529,800 ($434/SF)

At $376/SF, 46 Trailing Vine is the cheapest option currently in Irvine, at this price range. Still not very affordable, or not a fair deal for those who have kept a tab on prices since 2007 waiting for the right market to make their move.

What would you do?

Would you buy an attached condominium for $500,000+?

Would you put in as much as cash you can in down payment?

Share your thoughts at Talk Irvine.

Inventory as of 24th March, 2013: 184.

I know, you all laugh when you hear the legendary Realtor statement “Buy now or be priced out forever”. But of late, the Irvine market has flipped, and is clearly on the seller's side, forcing people to buy before they are priced out, or the interest rates rise! Oh wait, this is Irvine. We don't care about interest rates. We buy all cash. At least most of the people I talk to are sharing stories of exorbitant down payments or all cash purchases. It's a different world from what we saw four years ago, when we looking to buy. Inventory was maximum, and even though there were multiple offers of properties, people were under bidding each other as opposed to over bidding now to get a property, guaranteed.

I have profiled the West Irvine condominiums a couple of times to show how the market has changed for them in a year, some even appreciating as much as $200,000. Today, I will profile another condominium from the 92602 zip code, but not in West Irvine.

46 Trailing Vine, Irvine CA 92602

Listing Price: $525,000

Beds/ baths: 3 Beds/ 2.5 Baths

Area: 1395 SF

Year Built: 2005

Monthly Expenses:

Mortgage: $1915

HOA Dues: $290

Mello Roos: $113

Property tax: $463

Total Monthly Expenses: $2781

Cost of owning/ SF: $2/ SF Monthly

When the market was going down a couple of years ago, there was a lot of chatter about shadow inventory. Technically, if the market performed as the graph projected, that would be the case, and we would have reached the rock bottom in the summer of 2012. But, now we all know that those who bought in the 2008-2011 time period did not catch a falling knife.

Here is a brief history of trailing vine properties:

2007: $419/SF

2008: $349/SF – $367/SF

2009: $311/SF – $329/SF

2010: $302/SF – $342/SF

2011: $297/SF – $306/SF

2012: $274/SF – $295/SF

2013: 81 Trailing Vine, $330/SF

92 Trailing Vine, $294/SF

33 Trailing Vine, $329/SF

38 League, $354/SF

From $419/SF to $274/SF, Tamarisk has seen it all.

What do you think?

Would you buy a Tamarisk house fearing that you might actually be priced out very soon if the trend continues?

Are you willing to pay half a million dollars to buy a house with a tiny patio, and view of the freeway from the bedrooms?

Share your views at Talk Irvine.

Condos listing for $400+/SF are becoming a new normal in Irvine. People are flocking to see these homes, and without a second thought, are putting in offers with more than the usual twenty percent down payment. I talked to a Realtor friend of mine recently, and asked him if people were throwing in all cash offers to these overpriced condos since the appraisals might not even be favorable for loans. He said it's a combination of down payments in excess (to cover if the appraisal came in lower than the purchase/listing price) and appraisals done to suit current market conditions. As an Irvine home owner, and as a buyer to upgrade, it's confusing to me as well. At this point, I am not sure if we should sell and get out before the water gets murky, or buy another one before I get priced out! (I am sure all the Realtors have started using the legendary threat “Buy now, or be priced out forever” again!)

Things are getting so crazy, the house with this MLS picture (only picture) sold at $363/SF!

I had written about “Campaniles of North Park” and wondered if the unexciting exclamations and the use of teenage jargon had decreased interest in one of the properties. Turns out we are at a point where everything sells, and everything sells for more! I think busy Realtors can start employing their Kindergarten children to take pictures and write property descriptions, and still mint money.

Here is a picture from a property listed at $599,999 (pending sale, back-up offers accepted!).

Topsy-turvy market? Agreed.

Topsy-turvy world? Maybe.

Topsy-tuvry backyard? Oh, must be a new phenomenon, inspired by the topsy-turvy tomato plants!

Many pictures in this listing are blurry. But this one has a certain spooky element to it.

Here is a listing by another Irvine Realtor. Although there are a couple of very professional Realtors on Talk Irvine, I didn't want to choose their listings – a good listing is a good listing, but I don't want to play favorites. (6 Night Bloom listing description and pictures/ staging were very professional in my opinion, and so was 95 Waterman). In a day and age where technology has advanced so much that you can point and shoot great pictures with your cell phone, and spell-check what you write using almost any tool you are using to write, it's a turn off to look at blurry pictures and read incomplete property descriptions. An average buyer spends one third of his pay check on his house. If my department store can send a glossy catalogue to lure me into buying a $50 sweater, I think my Realtor can at least spend a few minutes to present the house in a decent manner.

Do you scan a property via MLS listing before you visit the property?

What are your thoughts? Do the blurry pictures and incomplete information bother you?

When you hire a Realtor, what are the qualities you look for?

Discuss on Talk Irvine