Monthly Archives: October 2010

Alt-A, Prime, and Jumbo Loan Delinquencies and Foreclosures Rise

No matter how you slice and dice the mortgage data, it is a deteriorating picture punctuated by very large numbers of delinquencies and foreclosures.

Irvine Home Address … 15306 NORMANDIE Ave Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $995,000

I should have known better than to give a loan to you

That I would lose everything that you do

And I do, hey, hey, hey, and I do.

So, I should have realized a lot of things before

If this is a loan you've gotta give me more

Give me more, hey hey hey, give me more

Beatles — I Should Have Known Better

The banks should have known better than to underwrite the loans they did. Whenever I think about the greed and stupidity that overtook our lending industry — and the damage they have done to our society by creating a generation of Ponzis — I feel no compassion for their losses. Knowing my tax dollars are bailing them out irks me even more. In the ongoing debacle of lender creation, we are seeing further deterioration in loan performance. What a surprise.

Types of Borrowers

Do you remember the various borrower types: subprime, Alt-A, and prime? The ARM reset chart breaks down the outstanding ARMs by those borrower types and mixes in some types of loans (agency, Option ARM, and unsecuritized ARMs) just to make it a bit confusing.

The three main borrower classes can also be divided based on the size of the loan into conforming (up to $417,000), jumbo conforming ($417,000 to $729,750), and jumbo (over $729,750).

The stories forming the basis for today's featured articles examine the three main types of borrowers and separately the jumbo loan category.

As you may recall, subprime ARMs reset first. In 2007 and 2008, nearly all subprime loans reset, and the resulting wave of delinquencies and foreclosures trashed prices wherever subprime was found. From this the banks learned one important lesson: if you foreclose and dispose of the real estate, prices get crushed. Las Vegas proved that. Upon seeing the carnage, lenders opted for another strategy: amend-extend-pretend. As a result, the Alt-A, prime, and jumbo borrowers have similarly gone delinquent on their mortgage, but they have been allowed to squat so banks can preserve the illusion of value on their balance sheets. Homeowners are not complaining.

The problem for the banks is that failing to foreclose on people is causing distressed borrowers to strategically accelerate their default to take advantage of the bank's inaction. As we are about to see, Alt-A, prime and jumbo are on their way to becoming subprime; in fact, Alt-A is already there.

In worse-off states, Alt-A is becoming the new subprime

by CHRISTINE RICCIARDI — Tuesday, October 5th, 2010

Data released Tuesday by 1010data, in conjunction with the American Securitization Forum, CoreLogic and Equifax, confirmed what CoreLogic economist Mark Fleming mentioned during an interview with HousingWire one month ago — Alt-A loans are the new subprime. However, Alt-A mortgages passing 25% delinquency rates, levels similar to subprime loans, remain localized to only a few states.

The Market Review of Non-Agency MBS is the first in a series to be released by 1010data and the American Securitization Forum, which recently entered into a partnership. This report uses data collected through September and focuses on trends within the Alt-A category between 2004 and 2008, as well as jumbo and option ARMs.

Jonah Green, head of mortgage analytics at 1010data and contributor to the report, said the delinquency trends with Alt-A loans directly reflect a subprime attitude, or perhaps even worse.

"Alt-A is traditionally considered near prime collateral," Green told HousingWire. "But because of the housing crisis, the delinquencies you're seeing are so great that people are considering Alt-A, effectively, subprime."

According Green, 9% of Alt-A loans that were current six months ago are now delinquent.

Nearly 10% of all Alt-A loans that were current only six months ago are now delinquent. You don't have to run a 10% new delinquency rate very long before the entire pool of Alt-A loans goes bad. Those are horrendous numbers.

Approximately 40% of Alt-A loans originated in Nevada between 2004 and 2008 are more than 60-days delinquent or in foreclosure. Nevada is topped only by Florida, which has a reported 46.4% of issued Alt-A loans 60-days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Twenty states have Alt-A delinquencies exceeding 25% (see map).

It doesn't look like I will be running out of Las Vegas properties to bid on any time soon.

Green said that state delinquencies north of 25% are high, even for a subprime deal. Not only that, but Green said jumbo loans could be next to follow suit. In Nevada, 24.4% of jumbo loans are 60-plus days delinquent or in foreclosure, followed by 20% in Florida.

"Jumbo prime is performing like subprime, Alt-A is performing worse than subprime and subprime simply isn't performing," Green said. "The private label deals weren't structured with types of delinquencies in mind."

Nobody was prepared for the collapse of the housing bubble. Most were in denial, and many still are.

August delinquency inventory falls on highest foreclosure starts since January: LPS

by CHRISTINE RICCIARDI — Friday, September 24th, 2010

More homes moved from delinquency into foreclosure in August, as the inventory of homes 30-plus days and 90-plus days delinquent decreased and foreclosure starts rose to the highest level since January, according to Lender Processing Services.

HousingWire reported the initial results of the report last week. The firm's final monthly mortgage monitor was released today.

The majority of foreclosure inventory included prime loans, which increased 106.4% over an 18-month period in the agency sector, 102.4% in the non-agency sector, and 107% in the non-agency jumbo sector.

Those are shocking numbers. We have doubled the foreclosure inventory of the best performing loans in the portfolio. When the bank's prime loans become toxic waste, what do they do then?

The numbers below paint an even bleaker picture. I don't see the light at the end of the tunnel yet.

According to CoreLogic, there are about 40 million prime loans in the marketplace, 6.2% of which were 60-days delinquent in June and 3% of which were 90-days delinquent.

CoreLogic analyst Mark Fleming said the percentage of delinquent loans in the prime space have been masked because the volume is so huge.

LPS reported 282,528 foreclosure starts last month, up 1% from July and 3.8% higher than the year earlier. The year-to-date foreclosure rate is now 20.4% higher than 2009. Thirty-day delinquent inventory fell to 9.22%, the lowest level in over a year. The percentage was 9.3% in July and 9.7% a year ago. The inventory of 90-day delinquent loans decreased to 8.22%, down from 8.3% in July. The percentage was 8% a year earlier.

Despite the spike in overall foreclosure starts, the number of starts within agency loans decreased in August for the first time in three months, to less than 140,000. Agencies also have accelerated foreclosures in late-stage delinquencies, six-month delinquencies decreasing to 60,000 from 65,000. Six-month delinquency volume is the highest on agency portfolio. Three-month delinquencies account for more than 30,000 loans and two-month delinquent loans have risen for three month to almost 20,000 loans.

If any of you spotted any good news in there, point it out. i didn't see any.

They didn't spend the house!

It's very rare that I find a mortgage history with no proven HELOC abuse. It looks like these people were frugal and paid down their mortgage, so I have given them a "B" for mortgage management. They did get a couple of HELOCs, but there is nothing to suggest they actually took the money and spent it.

  • This house was purchased on 4/3/1990, the peak of the last housing bubble. I don't have their original mortgage data, but they paid $325,000, and they likely put at least 20% down.
  • On 9/8/1998 there is a refinance of the first mortgage for $220,000.
  • On 10/25/2000 they were approved for a $99,000 HELOC, but I don't think they used it.
  • On 3/17/2003 they refinanced their first mortgage again for $212,000. This tells me they didn't use the HELOC and paid down the first mortgage.
  • On 2/9/2005 they were approved for a $275,000 HELOC. Based on their past history, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and suggest that they have consistently reduced their indebtedness on the property.

There is no delinquency, and even if they maxed the HELOC, they are still sitting on a cloud of bubble equity.

Irvine Home Address … 15306 NORMANDIE Ave Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $995,000

Home Purchase Price … $325,000

Home Purchase Date …. 4/3/1990

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $610,300

Percent Change ………. 187.8%

Annual Appreciation … 5.5%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$995,000 ………. Asking Price

$199,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.21% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$796,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$187,902 ………. Income Requirement

$3,897 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$862 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$83 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,842 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$914 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$1105 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$300 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$124 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$3,248 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$9,950 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$9,950 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$7,960 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$199,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$226,860 ………. Total Cash Costs

$49,700 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$276,560 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 15306 NORMANDIE Ave Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds: 5

Baths: 5 baths

Home size: 3,700 sq ft

($269 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 6,315 sq ft

Year Built: 1971

Days on Market: 60

Listing Updated: 40459

MLS Number: P747674

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: El Camino Real

Tract: Rc

——————————————————————————

Completely remodeled home with unique skylighted-attrium with surround hall way entry, open lighted plan. Travertine flooring, granite kitchen counter,center island gas cook top, new kitchen cabinetry, dual a/c and ON-Demand Electric Tankless water heater. Well kept home with salt water pool, Gas BBQ ready patio, fruit trees, low water usage landscape. Entire yard and driveway with concrete paint, finished garage with Epoxy coated floor. The house also features ceiling fans, new appliances and fire place. A large upstairs Den/Entertainment room with surround sound wiring. All rooms are cable ready. Features also include a main floor bedroom and bath. Spacious Master bath with jacuzzi tub and shower. The house is priced to sell. There is no association or mello roos on this house. Pride of ownerhship. Priced to Sell.

attrium? ownerhship? And Mello Roos is capitalized; it is the last names of the two legislators who introduced the bill. Why did the realtor say it is priced to sell twice?

Wells Fargo: Full Speed Ahead with Foreclosures

Despite the political pressure, Wells Fargo is pressing ahead with its planned foreclosures.

Irvine Home Address … 14492 GUAMA Ave Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price …… $499,000

If you believe in the power of magic,

I can change your mind

And if you need to believe in someone,

Turn and look behind

When we were living in a dream world,

Clouds got in the way

We gave it up in a moment of madness

And threw it all away

Don't answer me, don't break the silence

Don't let me win

Alan Parsons Project — Don't Answer Me

Borrowers believe in the power of magic. Either the market will save them or the government will. Fortunately, not every bank answered the politicians' call to stop foreclosures. B of A answered this call and in a moment of madness, they threw it all away.

Wells Fargo Foreclosures Proceed After Data Queried

Wells Fargo & Co. is standing by the accuracy of its foreclosure filings and won’t follow competitors in delaying seizures, after an employee testified he signed documents for proceedings without personally reviewing records.

The bank said yesterday it doesn’t plan to halt repossessions because its “procedures and daily auditing demonstrate that our foreclosure affidavits are accurate.”

In a May 20 deposition, a Wells Fargo Home Mortgage employee said he signed 50 to 150 documents a day, including statements describing debts and borrowers used to justify foreclosures, without personally confirming the information was correct. His testimony related to a civil claim against the bank in a Washington state court. A judge dismissed the case in June.

Can you guess why the judge dimissed the claim? Because it was baseless. Who cares if some employee batch signed a few documents. Supervisors do this all the time. These documents were probably already reviewed by an army of staff before the signer ever saw them. The statement above implies that the banks were not reviewing these documents which is crazy.

Mortgage firms have drawn fire from borrowers, lawyers and state officials for letting employees sign affidavits for court- monitored foreclosures without personally checking loan records. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. last week delayed foreclosures to review the accuracy of their filings. Last month, Ally Financial Inc. said its GMAC Mortgage unit would halt evictions for a similar review.

Let's be clear here: mortgage holders do not have the power of eviction. If they did, we wouldn't have so many squatters. They only have the power to foreclose, an act that leads to auction and later an eviction if the former owner doesn't leave on their own.

The Wells Fargo employee said he relied on foreclosure lawyers and personnel in other departments to check files, according to a deposition transcript provided by Melissa Huelsman, the Seattle attorney representing the homeowner. The employee said he confirmed the date on the file before signing without verifying other information.

‘Out of Context’

Those comments “should not be taken out of context,” Wells Fargo said in yesterday’s statement, e-mailed by a spokeswoman, Vickee Adams. The judge “reviewed Wells Fargo’s procedures, documents and declarations and summarily dismissed the borrower’s case, confirming that the foreclosure was valid,” the bank said in the statement.

For once, I agree with a bank. These lawsuits are silly.

Such a dismissal doesn’t necessarily invalidate testimony, said Peter Henning, a professor at Wayne State University Law School in Detroit and a former federal prosecutor.

“It’s not that the judge rejected the deposition, or found that the deposition was incorrect,” he said. “The firm probably went back into court and said ‘Here you go, you can inspect all the documents.’ Maybe that was enough.”

Wells Fargo is the second-largest servicer of U.S. home loans, according to industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance. The San Francisco-based bank handles about $1.8 trillion of residential mortgages, according to company filings. Bank of America, JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc. and Ally round out the top five. Through June, 92 percent of Wells Fargo’s mortgages were current, according to the statement.

If 92% of its loans are current, then 8% are delinquent. That is still an astonishingly high number.

‘How Do You Know?’

Andrew Yates, a Seattle-based lawyer representing the employee, didn’t return calls for comment. Adams declined to comment beyond the statement.

During questioning from Huelsman, the bank employee described his efforts before signing filings.

“So you’re simply signing the document that’s presented to you and you’re just making sure the date is correct?” Huelsman asked during the deposition.

“Correct,” the employee said.

“So how do you know when you’re signing this document that it’s true and correct?” Huelsman said.

There are people that are responsible for” maintaining the paperwork, the employee said.

This is akin to asking the guy on the assembly line who installs doors if he knows anything about the motor mounts. If it isn't his responsibility, how is he supposed to have knowledge of it?

States Take a Stance

The employee said he oversaw 53 full-time staff and 15 contract workers, and that other supervisors within the department signed the same amount of paperwork. That would amount to each supervisor signing 1,000 to 3,000 documents during 20 business days each month.

In a separate case in Florida, an employee at New York- based JPMorgan said in May that her team of managers signed about 18,000 documents a month. In a December deposition, an employee at Detroit-based Ally said he signed about 10,000 documents a month. Attorneys general in at least seven states including Texas, Illinois and Ohio are investigating practices at Ally’s GMAC Mortgage unit.

In Wells Fargo’s home state, California Attorney General Jerry Brown asked JPMorgan to prove its foreclosures are legal or else freeze them, and made a similar request to Ally in September.

“This goes to the internal processes and oversight at these institutions with respect to the conduct of their employees,” said Jacob Frenkel, a partner at Potomac, Maryland- based law firm Shulman Rogers Gandal Pordy & Ecker, which isn’t representing any lenders in foreclosure proceedings. “It’s not in the banks’ interest for the records not to be right. As a lawyer I want to go into court with papers that are solid.”

If the fact that banks are processing large amounts of documents is the best these plaintiffs can do, no wonder the judges are dismissing these cases.

Published: Thursday, 7 Oct 2010 — Diana Olick

I'm not going to tally the number of Attorneys General filing lender lawsuits or lawmakers demanding foreclosure moratoria, because the minute I do the number will change.

Suffice it to say that you're not in political fashion these days if you're not "demanding" a federal investigation into shoddy foreclosure procedures or "ordering" a freeze on foreclosures for the foreseeable future, even though you might not exactly have the jurisdiction to do so.

“Our families deserve to know that an action with such a huge and lasting impact is the absolute last resort, and that every effort has been made to keep them in their homes prior to foreclosure,” wrote Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley. He's a Democrat, by the way, and they appear to be in the majority of those screaming at the wind; gee I wonder why.

No less than the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and her cadre of California lawmakers noted that, "Avoidable foreclosures end up being unnecessarily costly for homeowners, lenders and servicers, and our housing market, whose health is essential to our economic recovery," in a letter addressed to the U.S. Attorney General, Fed Chairman and the acting Comptroller of the Currency. "Recent reports that Ally Financial (formerly GMAC), JP Morgan, and Bank of America may have approved thousands of unwarranted foreclosures only amplify our concerns that systemic problems exist," she adds.

And it's not just the Dems posturing on this one. Far be it for Republicans to pass up a chance to use the scandal as a weapon. Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, ranking Republican on the Banking Committee is calling for a hearing: "I am highly troubled that once again our federal regulators appear to be asleep at the switch.”

I'm not going to feign surprise at any of this. It's to be expected, especially given this particular upcoming election. I just wish these folks would stick to the facts. This scandal is largely about bad paperwork, not "unwarranted foreclosures." Right now close to 10 percent of borrowers in this country are delinquent on their loans.

Translation: They're not paying their mortgages.

Another 4 percent have been delinquent for so long that they're now in the foreclosure process.

Yes, the process is flawed because the banks clearly aren't equipped to handle the numbers.

Yes, there may be some loans that could have been saved, but the vast majority can't.

Still lawmakers want to freeze all foreclosures to make sure all of them are fair because, as Speaker Pelosi writes, "People in our districts are hurting."

Boo Hoo.

The question is, how much would a foreclosure freeze hurt the greater housing market?

I asked some mortgage mavens and got the following responses:

Josh Rosner, Graham-Fisher: With REO sales being a large part of supply we would see home prices artificially and unsustainably rise, foreclosure volumes paint a false picture of stability and investors in MBS would be further harmed as their losses grow. Once the moratorium ended prices would fall and foreclosures would skyrocket. But, it would paint a prettier picture than reality heading into mid-term elections.

That is a brilliant synopsis of what would happen if this moratorium continues and becomes more widespread.

Guy Cecala, Inside Mortgage Finance: Instead of having a ton of mortgage borrowers who haven’t made any payments in at least a year, we would have a ton who haven’t made a payment in a year-and-half. Keep in mind we will have new problem loans entering the system throughout any moratorium whether we acknowledge them or not. Do we seriously believe that a foreclosure moratorium can change the outcome of potentially 5 million or more homeowners losing their homes over the next two years? Ultimately, if we don’t do something to handle distressed properties more efficiently (and faster), the housing market is going to remain stuck in limbo with no recovery in sight.

Right again. any widespread moratorium will encourage strategic default.

Janet Tavakoli, Tavakoli Structured Finance: Banks are vulnerable to lawsuits from investors in the [securitization] trusts. This problem could cost the banks significantly more money, which could mean TARP II (Washington Post)

Another very likely outcome. Banks are going to either lose money through foreclosure or lose money through lawsuits due to their failure to foreclose.

Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac: If foreclosure sales are prohibited, home sales would tail off dramatically…foreclosures and REOs accounted for over 30% of all sales during the quarter [Q3] Fewer home sales will put more pressure on home prices, reduce tax receipts for already-strapped municipal and state governments, and put even more pressure on an already-moribund economy. This could cause at least a temporary loss of jobs in a number of sectors. A 90-day moratorium would also extend the housing market downturn, pushing the anticipated recovery from early 2014 into late 2014 – and possibly even longer.

Any foreclosure moratorium would be a disaster. Since B of A is at least temporarily going that route, perhaps Wells Fargo and other banks will take advantage and push a few more foreclosures through the system. If I were in their shoes, I would.

They got their share of the HELOC riches

  • The owners of today's featured property paid $486,000 on 5/29/2003. The used a $388,800 first mortgage, a $48,600 second mortgage, and a $48,600 down payment.
  • On 6/4/2004 they refinanced with a $437,000 first mortgage.
  • On 9/27/2004 they obtained a $75,000 HELOC.
  • On 3/16/2005 they refinanced with a first mortgage for $439,000.
  • On 1/26/2006 they refinanced the first mortgage for $555,000.
  • On 8/28/2006 they refinanced with a $564,000 Option ARM with a 1.25% teaser rate, and they obtained a $100,000 HELOC.
  • Total property debt is $664,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $226,600.
  • Total squatting time is about 18 months.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 10/29/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 07/24/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Irvine Home Address … 14492 GUAMA Ave Irvine, CA 92606

Resale Home Price … $499,000

Home Purchase Price … $486,000

Home Purchase Date …. 5/29/2003

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(16,940)

Percent Change ………. -3.5%

Annual Appreciation … 0.3%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$499,000 ………. Asking Price

$17,465 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.21% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$481,535 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$94,234 ………. Income Requirement

$2,358 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$432 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$42 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$43 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,875 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$371 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$668 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$26 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$62 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,924 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$4,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,815 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$17,465 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$32,260 ………. Total Cash Costs

$29,400 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$61,660 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 14492 GUAMA Ave Irvine, CA 92606

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 1 full 2 part baths

Home size: 1,897 sq ft

($263 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,130 sq ft

Year Built: 1971

Days on Market: 9

Listing Updated: 40457

MLS Number: S634529

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Walnut

Tract: Cp

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Ready to work, Here is great opportunity for you. Located in cul-de-sac. Walking distance to elementary school. Large house for little money.

Politicians Encourage Strategic Default with Foreclosure Moratoria

The announcement by BofA — who was blackmailed by numerous government officials — to suspend all foreclosures strongly encourages strategic default. Why would anyone pay their mortgage when they know they can stop paying and keep their house?

Irvine Home Address … 13 GREENWOOD Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $415,000

C'mon and hold me

Just like you told me

Then show me

What I want to know

Why don't we steal away

Why don't we steal away

Into the night

I know it ain't right

Robbie Dupree — Steal Away

Steal away. No, i don't mean to move quietly off into the night, I mean brazenly steal the house your living in. Why don't borrowers steal away? Why don't they keep the house and ignore the mortgage. With news like this, I really don't understand Why Struggling Homeowners Keep Paying Their Mortgages; after all Squatting is Becoming a Way of Life for Many Delinquent Borrowers, and now, the bank is stopping all foreclosures. Given these circumstances, isn't strategic default the most prudent course of action?

Not everyone will strategically default. Many borrowers really can afford their payments, and they rightfully figure the foreclosure moratorium will end; however, the struggling masses who are considering accelerating their defaults have just been given the green light to bail because they know the bank isn't going to foreclose on them. This is a dumb policy the banks will later regret.

BofA Halts Foreclosures

Bank Expands Freeze After Pressure From Government-Run Mortgage Firm

By DAN FITZPATRICK, DAMIAN PALETTA And ROBIN SIDEL — OCTOBER 9, 2010

Bank of America Corp. imposed a nationwide moratorium on foreclosures and the sale of foreclosed homes after it came under intense pressure from a government-run housing-finance giant worried about documentation problems, people familiar with the situation said.

The bank called the halt as concern mounted from legislators and state prosecutors about procedures used by lenders to foreclose on homes. Many banks use so-called robo signers, employees who sign hundreds of documents a day, without carefully reviewing their contents, when foreclosing on homes. Critics say that could result in improper foreclosures.

Improper foreclosures? Has anyone anywhere documented a case where a borrower who was current on their payments was foreclosed upon? Anyone who is not making their payments who ends up in foreclosure has experienced a "proper foreclosure." The notion of an improper foreclosure is simply a politician's fantasy. It gives those seeking election to public office something emotional to bluster about. The reality is there are no improper foreclosures.

Freddie Mac, the government-run mortgage-finance company that along with Fannie Mae owns many of the mortgages serviced by banks, pressed Bank of America to expand its search for problems with the foreclosure documentation process, said the people familiar with the situation.

On a call Thursday with several banks that included Bank of America, a Freddie official said the mortgage company wanted the institutions to look at foreclosure documentation across all 50 states, and asked them to consider putting a stop to the entire foreclosure process, say people familiar with the call.

Freddie Mac, an entity under government conservatorship and run by the Treasury department, asked major commercial banks to stop foreclosing on delinquent borrowers. This is one of two things: (1) It is a purely political act of desperate Democratic incumbents (Harry Reid and others) to make themselves look good going into next month's elections, or (2) the GSEs want to ramp up their own foreclosures while prices are still elevated and they don't want competition from the major banks (Government Expedites Foreclosures, Threatens Banking Cartel). I lean more toward political causes, but the economic issue cannot be dismissed.

Many in the banking industry fear that the widening paperwork problem could cause further delay on foreclosures and threaten an already weak housing market, which in turn is stalling the broader U.S. economic recovery. On the other hand, it could provide a brief financial respite to people who have defaulted on their mortgages and are still occupying their homes.

Could provide a respite? Do we need to give squatters any more breaks? For those of you waiting for these squatters to move out of your future home, how do you feel about this? You are paying a subsidy to the people living in your future home while you continue to work, pay bills, and rent.

As of August, there were more than 4.4 million home loans that were either in the foreclosure process or 90 days past due, according to mortgage research firm LPS Analytics. Since 2006, about 6.4 million homes have been lost through the foreclosure process.

Lost through the foreclosure process? Where did those houses go? Into the black hole of shadow inventory? The idea that these houses have been "lost" is very irritating. Any of those homes "found" on the MLS have been purchased by an owner-occupant or a cashflow investor who rented it out. While the squatter is living in the house, it is a completely non-productive asset; it costs money to maintain, but it produces no income. Foreclosure is the process by which we recycle these homes and obtain value from them. Nothing is lost in the foreclosure process.

Edward DeMarco, who heads the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said in an interview that officials were working to find a "tailored" response to the foreclosure problem that won't cause broader problems for the fragile housing market. "We are trying to be quick but measured in the approach and the response taken," he said. "We're concerned about the whole housing market, and we're concerned about what this means for taxpayers and other market participants."

Can you find any substance to Mr. DeMarco's comment above? I read only bullshit.

Last week Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Ally Financial Inc. agreed to more closely examine documents used in 23 states where a court's approval is required to foreclose on a home. J.P. Morgan said its review suspended nearly 56,000 foreclosures.

In conversations with Bank of America, Freddie said financial penalties or litigation could result if the bank did not take additional steps, said a person familiar with the conversations. Bank of America told Freddie that an audit of procedures in the 23 states uncovered no errors, this person said.

But Freddie said the work didn't go far enough and asked for a review in all 50 states, as well a stop to any foreclosure sales, said people familiar with the situation. Freddie Mac declined to comment.

Of course Freddie Mac declined to comment, they just threatened B of A with a lawsuit if B of A didn't do what Freddie Mac asked. This is government extortion through an intermediary.

Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said Friday that the bank hasn't found problems in its foreclosure process, but opted to temporarily halt all foreclosures to "clear the air." He said the bank wants to "go back and check our work one more time."

Its decision is expected to stop "a couple of thousand" foreclosure sales scheduled for the next week, according to one person familiar with the matter said. The bank declined to specify how many homes it has in the foreclosure pipeline.

All this is only expected to stop a few foreclosures for a single week? Talk about a tempest in a teapot. i hope the politicians get some mileage out of this.

So far, Bank of America is the only lender to expand its foreclosure freeze, but others may be forced to begin or broaden a review, banking executives say. Wells Fargo & Co., one of the nation's largest mortgage lenders, says it hasn't stopped foreclosing on any properties.

Apparently, the government is threatening other major banks, and they fully expect them to capitulate. Unbelievable.

At this point, J.P. Morgan isn't expanding its foreclosure moratorium, but is widening its document review beyond the 23 states where it has frozen foreclosures, according to a person close to the bank.

[BOFA]

Bank of America services 14 million mortgages, or one out of every five in the U.S., and its loan-servicing portfolio exceeds $2.1 trillion in size. Of its mortgages, 10 million came from its 2008 acquisition of troubled California lender Countrywide Financial Corp. More than 80% of its delinquent loans were acquired through Countrywide.

What a great bargain that deal turned out to be, right?

A push over the last week from politicians and law-enforcement officials troubled by reports of foreclosure problems only intensified the pressure on Bank of America, which has been working to improve its relations in Washington. It concluded that reviews in just 23 states wouldn't cut it with elected officials in the other states, a person close to the bank said.

"In this intense political season we are in, it didn't play well to say do it in some states but not your state," this person said.

That confirms this is nothing but a political ploy. Disgusting.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.), whose state has been hit hard by foreclosures, and House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Edolphus Towns (D., N.Y.), both said Friday they welcomed Bank of America's move and called on other banks to follow.

Cassandra Toroian, chief investment officer at Bell Rock Capital LLC, a money-management firm, says the additional reviews are unlikely to significantly impact the outcome for homeowners who are facing foreclosure. "It's just delaying the inevitable," she says.

Actually, this policy is likely to have impact — it is going to cause more accelerated default.

Momentum builds for full moratorium on foreclosures

By Ariana Eunjung Cha, Steven Mufson and Jia Lynn Yang

Washington Post Staff Writers

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Senior Obama administration officials said Friday that a nationwide moratorium on foreclosure sales may be inevitable, despite their grave reservations about the impact a broad freeze would have on the nation's housing market and economic recovery.

Their remarks were made as pressure for a nationwide moratorium mounted Friday when Bank of America, the nation's largest bank, halted evictions in all 50 states. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.), who is locked in a tight reelection campaign, called on other major lenders to follow suit.

The White House has so far resisted joining the election-season calls for action but convened two interagency meetings this week to discuss reports that banks filed fraudulent documents to evict borrowers who missed payments as well as fundamental questions about whether banks are seizing properties without having clear ownership of the mortgages.

I know the Democrats are desperate right now, but this kind of pandering is a major turnoff. It's the kind of thing that makes me want to see them lose. It's also clear evidence that the pressure being exerted by Freddie Mac is coming directly from the Obama administration and Harry Reid.

One meeting was made up mostly of groups that regulate the housing industry, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Treasury Department and the White House. The other, which involved the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Internal Revenue Service and U.S. attorneys from across the country, was focused on the question of whether financial fraud was committed.

With foreclosed properties comprising one in every four homes sold in the United States, the spreading moratorium could disrupt real estate deals in progress, slow down the process of clearing the backlog of troubled home loans and prolong the economic recovery, analysts said.

A freeze would also strike at the financial sector, just two years after it suffered one of the worst crises in its history. One government official who has been in discussions with several big financial firms said the banks are bracing themselves for a wave of lawsuits from homeowners who are fighting to keep their homes and from investors who had bought mortgage loans on Wall Street. On Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 11,000, most major bank stocks fell.

It looks as if the government is going to delay the recovery by keeping a huge overhang of shadow inventory despite the inevitably lawsuits.

… Also Friday, the Federal Housing Administration said it had asked agency-approved mortgage servicers – which includes the nation's largest banks – to immediately audit their foreclosure operations. The FHA can impose financial penalties on companies that do not follow rules set by housing regulators.

Questions over the legal standing of banks in foreclosure proceedings as well as reports that these firms cut corners as they pushed foreclosures through the legal system fueled calls in Congress for a nationwide freeze and federal investigations.

Another tool of threat the government has is the FHA.

Reid, who had earlier sent a letter to major banks asking them to suspend foreclosures in Nevada, expanded that call Friday after Bank of America's announcement.

"I thank Bank of America for doing the right thing by suspending actions on foreclosures while this investigation runs its course," he said.

The Senate banking committee's chairman, Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.), said Friday that his panel will hold hearings Nov. 16 to investigate the morass.

Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, said the top 10 mortgage lenders should immediately suspend foreclosure proceedings in all states.

"The implications of ignoring the foreclosure problems are far too great to be ignored," he said Friday.

Bullshit. I can't believe these guys have the nerve to say these things. I suppose they are politicians in close elections, so nothing should surprise me. These guys are unbelievable.

… "Calls for a blanket national moratorium on all foreclosures are a bad idea and would cause significant harm to communities at risk, the unstable housing market and the fragile economy," the industry letter said.

Suspending foreclosures could end up forcing banks, which act as service companies for the loans, to spend billions of dollars to compensate investors who own the pools of mortgages they manage. And it could add to the losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-owned mortgage financiers.

Pension funds and other investors in the pools of mortgage securities are worried that the big banks will get special treatment from Washington.

"What's happened is a gross mishandling of paperwork and often times a misrepresentation of the transaction," said Chris Katopis, a spokesman for the Association of Mortgage Investors. "The banks have to have some responsibility and accountability for this."

chaa@washpost.com mufsons@washpost.com yangjl@washpost.com

The only people who benefit from a moratorium are politicians and squatters. Everyone else gets screwed.

HELOC abusing squatters will benefit from a moratorium

As you contemplate whether or not this moratorium idea is good or bad, take a hard look at the people who will benefit the most. Today's featured property is a particularly bad case of HELOC abuse and squatting. They went to the housing ATM every year for another withdrawal. The income subsidy was enormous. After you see how these people lived over the last decade, ask yourself if this is the kind of behavior we want to subsidize and see more of.

  • This house was purchased on 7/22/1998 for $132,000. Their original mortgage and down payment does not show up in my records. Let's assume they used an 80% first mortgage ($105,600) and a $26,400 down payment. This may have been a 3% down FHA purchase, but I don't know.
  • On 10/4/2001 they refinanced with a $130,000 first mortgage.
  • On 12/24/2002 they refinanced with a $175,000 first mortgage.
  • On 10/30/2003 they refinanced with a $279,300 first mortgage.
  • On 11/15/2004 they refinanced with a $385,000 first mortgage.
  • On 11/14/2005 they refinanced with a $450,000 first mortgage.
  • On 12/28/2006 they refinanced with a $524,000 Option ARM.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $418,400.

  • Total squatting time is about 20 months.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 09/11/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 06/08/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/12/2009

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/06/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

This family lived off their housing ATM machine. They were pulling out an average of $83,680 per year. That was roughly the median income in Irvine during that time.

Do you think we should encourage this kind of financial management? If we bail these people out or let them keep their house, we are ensuring we will have many more borrowers who emulate them in the future.

Irvine Home Address … 13 GREENWOOD Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $415,000

Home Purchase Price … $132,000

Home Purchase Date …. 7/22/1998

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $258,100

Percent Change ………. 195.5%

Annual Appreciation … 9.2%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$415,000 ………. Asking Price

$14,525 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.21% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$400,475 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$78,371 ………. Income Requirement

$1,961 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$360 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$35 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$320 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,675 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$309 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$556 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$22 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$52 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,884 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$4,150 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,150 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,005 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$14,525 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$26,830 ………. Total Cash Costs

$28,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$55,630 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 13 GREENWOOD Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 1 full 2 part baths

Home size: 1,642 sq ft

($253 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 2,110 sq ft

Year Built: 1976

Days on Market: 128

Listing Updated: 40459

MLS Number: S619881

Property Type: Condominium, Residential

Community: El Camino Real

Tract: St

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Wonderful 3 bedroom 2.5 bath, two car garage with enclosed paito. Close to shoping, fwy, school and parks. Price to sell!

paito? shoping? That description is fewer than 20 words, and the realtor managed to misspell two of them.

IHB News 10-9-2010

Do you think B of A has given away all the homes they have mortgages on?

Irvine Home Address … 4121 OLD MILL St Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $599,999

I turn on the tube what do i see,

a whole lot a people cryin' "don't blame me"

they point their crooked little fingers at everybody else

spend all their time feelin' sorry for them selves

victim of this, victim of that

your momma's too thin; and your daddy's too fat

get over it,

get over it

all this whinin' and cryin' and pitchin' a fit

get over it, get over it

you say ya haven't been the same since ya had your little crash

but you might feel better if they gave you some cash

The Eagles — Get Over It

As I contemplated the impact of the B of A foreclosure moratorium, the lyrics to the song above kept coming into my mind. Perhaps we should just give these people the houses they are squatting in. That might make them happy.

The squatters and HELOC abusers have already lost their homes, but they are being allowed to squat in the empty shell of their financial lives. They need to move on and get over it.

Shevy got really worked up about it…

Why Would B of A ANNOUNCE that they are halting foreclosures?

"Attention, Attention, everyone considering strategic default, we will not foreclose, you can live in your home for free for the foreseeable future and then rent the same home up the street for 1/2 as much, if and when we get around to foreclosing. By the way, please vote for the politicians that we gave a bunch of money to!" (who cares that your responsible neighbors and grandparents retirements will/are paying for it, the heck with them, our execs need to keep getting bonuses, they are used to it)

They might as well have announced that everyone that is underwater can stop paying their mortgage because they are increasing the time they will allow them to squat and its already pretty long. I understand that B of A is halting foreclosures because of actions of some attorneys, forcing them look at their foreclosure process and make sure they are executing it correctly. However, B of A has a huge staff of lawyers on staff the last I heard, the foreclosure process is not rocket science, and shouldn't they have already been on top of this?

This is highly suspect.?Isn't it likely that by announcing to people that they will not foreclose, at least not in the short term, they will encourage those teetering on the brink of foreclosure to strategically default? Won't many take the leap now that they know that B of A has halted foreclosures? Doesn't it make the most sense for those are underwater, will likely be able to live in the home for free for 6+ months and can likely rent the home up the street for about ½ of the cost of paying for their current home.

Moreover, won't this make title companies apprehensive to give title insurance on foreclosures? How many loans and how many millions if not billions of dollars in losses will this create? Is the system so corrupt that the tax payer will pick up this bill? Can anyone think of any good reason why they would ANNOUNCE this? There is only one reason I can come to.

1) Political- Politicians can jump on board and make out like they are coming down on the banks and forcing them to halt foreclosures.?

I believe that bankers and politicians believe they are smarter than everyone else, I hope they are wrong. Unfortunately, even if they are I don't see any good alternatives to our currently corrupt political parties. From what I can tell, this will only help the banks because supply was going up and demand was going down bringing prices closer to reasonable levels and since B of A is now likely the largest property owner in the country and they no longer are forced to use mark to market accounting their assets were losing value fast.

I do not know the details behind their Countrywide deal but I believe that it's likely that the taxpayers are picking up a huge tab for this debacle. If they do not slow play this inventory, they don't have to show losses, thus bank execs can keep getting their bonuses, and politicians can take credit for halting foreclosures all the while they will continue to trick Americans into believing delaying foreclosures and creating artificial value in housing is a good thing. In reality it's only good for the banks.

My recommendation; let house prices fall back in line with incomes, of course with artificially low rates they are in most of the country, but what if rates were at 8%? By keeping rates artificially low they are basically guaranteeing low to no appreciation for a long time to come in most of the country and delaying the inevitable in others. If underwater loan owners don't listen to the spin and guilt trip that having to move to a rental. And have not been tricked into believing or allowing a foreclosure to ruin their family, cause divorce, or cause their children massive amounts of stress and force them into a life of juvenile delinquency. If underwater home owners have a purchase money loan, they should let it go, rent, let prices come down and buy a new home for much less after this mess is cleared. If it's not a purchase-money loan speak with an attorney but don't be tricked into being an indentured servant for the bank for the next 20+ years. They already tricked you once; it does not have to happen again. Enough with the games, if people have not been paying for the last 3 months and are underwater by 10's of thousands of dollars it does not matter how or when you foreclose.

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

Fri Oct 8 2010

Housing faces powerful downside risks (lansner.ocregister.com)

Which cities face biggest housing risks (finance.yahoo.com)

Ex-Ginnie Mae's President on US Housing – Going to get worse (bloomberg.com)

The Freddie and Fannie Scam (greatdepression2006.blogspot.com)

Paradise Valley, AZ targets owners of abandoned luxury houses (azcentral.com)

Foreclosure freeze slows South Florida's residential real estate sales (miamiherald.com)

Foreclosure sales freeze leaves buyers in the cold (poten.com)

In foreclosure controversy, problems run deeper than flawed paperwork (washingtonpost.com)

Robosigned? That'll Be $25,000 – Each (market-ticker.org)

Putting the Foreclosure Paperwork Scandal in Perspective (propublica.org)

IMF and World Bank call for cooler heads on currencies (msnbc.msn.com)

Inflation Expectation Noise (Mish)

Refrigerator Price History at NexTag Seems To Show Deflation (nextag.com)

Obama sends bad forclosure documentation bill back to Congress (news.ino.com)

English Housing market crash feared after average house prices take record plunge (guardian.co.uk)

English Property prices drop 6,000 in a month (telegraph.co.uk)

Tech CEOs tell US gov't how to cut $1 trillion from deficit (networkworld.com)

Our Future In Chains: The For-Profit Debtors' Prison System (activistpost.com)

Suburbs take hit as US poverty climbs (dailybreeze.com)

Equality: Thomas Jefferson to James Madison in 1785 (press-pubs.uchicago.edu)

Compare the returns of renting vs buying


Thu Oct 7 2010

Prediction that California metro area price peaks won't return until 2025 (firsttuesdayjournal.com)

Wisconsin foreclosure filings reach record high (jsonline.com)

Real estate improvement for buyers could last 8 years: IMF (marketwatch.com)

Housing market stumbles again (for sellers) (finance.yahoo.com)

10 reasons renters live mortgage free (finance.yahoo.com)

Housing slump hammers local government tax revenue (finance.yahoo.com)

The Gathering Storm Over Foreclosures (dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com)

JPMorgan, Bank of America Face Hydra of Foreclosure Probes (bloomberg.com)

U.S. bank industry entering new crisis (marketwatch.com)

Foreclosure Furor Rises; Many Call for a Freeze (nytimes.com)

Banking giants suspend thousands of foreclosures (webofdebt.com)

Foreclosure Fraud Reveals Structural & Legal Crisis (ritholtz.com)

Foreclosure Procedures by State (all-foreclosure.com)

Global policymakers clash on currency policies (news.yahoo.com)

Stiglitz: Fed's Flood Of Liquidity Throwing World Into Currency Chaos (dailybail.com)

Insider access to Federal Reserve is goose that lays golden eggs (reuters.com)

McDonald's health insurance plan that caps annual benefits at $2,000 (nytimes.com)

Where is renting cheaper than owning?


Wed Oct 6 2010

Marin, CA house values sink (marinij.com)

Housing Inventory Climbs Again In September (blogs.wsj.com)

Feldstein Warns House Prices May Get More Affordable Without U.S. Aid (businessweek.com)

House Prices Will Drop Another 20% (businessinsider.com)

New-house prices fall to levels of 10 years ago (lvrj.com)

Strategic Defaults Threaten To Make All Major Housing Markets Affordable (realestatechannel.com)

No-interest loans offered to jobless houseowners (boston.com)

Japan's central bank cuts key rate to around zero (washingtonpost.com)

Japanese Politicians fed up with Deflation, Challenge BOJ Independence (Mish)

Economy, jobs expected to remain weak through 2014 (money.cnn.com)

Banks have misled houseowners, lawmakers say (mortgage.ocregister.com)

Banker's Foreclosure Fraud Threatens a New Financial Meltdown (thepennsylvaniaprogressive.com)

Please tell President Obama NOT to sign Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act (4closurefraud.org)

Buffett Compares Wall Street to Church With Raffle (bloomberg.com)

Goldman Sachs Sued Over German Bank's $37 Million Loss on CDO (bloomberg.com)

Lawyer fees bloom along foreclosure paper trail (contracostatimes.com)

Google's CEO: 'The Laws Are Written by Lobbyists' (theatlantic.com)

Real Democracy (patrick.net from 2006)

What are the rent/buy ratios near you?


Tue Oct 5 2010

A Mammoth One in Five Borrowers Will Default; Jumbo Mortgages Plummet (housingstory.net)

Jersey shore house prices still falling (philly.com)

Sellers pulling houses off O.C. market (lansner.ocregister.com)

Companies Fleeing California For Utah Over Confiscatory Tax Rate (nevadanewsandviews.com)

California Has to Delay Bills to Avert IOUs (bloomberg.com)

Plainfield, IL Real Estate Market is Worse Than You Can Imagine (plainfield.patch.com)

Foreclosure numbers poised to rise again (nctimes.com)

A Way Out For Houseowners In Trouble Hits A Snag (npr.org)

Are The Legal Foreclosure Problems Working In Banks' Interests? (butthenwhat.com)

Banking's New Bailout (newsweek.com)

Why monetary policy can't revive housing (boston.com)

Benefits of houseownership challenged by Fed employees (who will soon be fired) (latimes.com)

Lessons From Ireland's Real Estate Crisis (fool.co.uk)

Bankrupt originators paid in full can't foreclose (4closurefraud.org)

3 Banks Freeze Faulty Foreclosures (video – abcnews.go.com)

Health insurers throw support behind Republican candidates (latimes.com)

S. Carolina Lawmaker Introduces Legislation To Substitute Gold, Silver Coins For Dollar (dailybail.com)

When does it make sense to be your own landlord?


Mon Oct 4 2010

Congress puts rest of America on the hook for overpriced Calif. houses, again (cnbc.com)

Las Vegas faces deepest slide since 1940s (msnbc.msn.com)

Pensacola, FL housing market hits slide (pnj.com)

Sesame Street's Elmo Explains How Mortgage Debt Becomes National Debt (dailybail.com)

Net Private Borrowing Graph (monthlyreview.org)

Socialization Of Credit To Prop Up Asset Prices (Mish)

If mortgage rates plunged to 0% (marketwatch.com)

41.7 Million Spend Too Much on Housing (blogs.wsj.com)

The Wisdom of Property and the Politics of the Middle Classes (monthlyreview.org)

Values artificially high because all foreclosures not on market yet (google.com)

Paperwork storm hits nation's biggest bank (washingtonpost.com)

My Turn: Bring the Big Banks to Justice (newsweek.com)

Company Stops Insuring Titles in Chase Foreclosures (nytimes.com)

When real estate riches turn to rags (ocregister.com)

Policeman charged with damaging house after being foreclosed on (pe.com)

In a tough market, house sellers feel discouraged (northjersey.com)

The High-End Real Estate Holdouts (online.wsj.com)

116 Cliff Ave, Capitola, CA 95010 (patrick.net)

Human landscapes in SW Florida (boston.com)

Nothing changes (mattweidnerlaw.com)

Irvine Home Address … 4121 OLD MILL St Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price … $599,999

Home Purchase Price … $460,000

Home Purchase Date …. 12/5/08

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $103,999

Percent Change ………. 22.6%

Annual Appreciation … 13.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$599,999 ………. Asking Price

$120,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.52% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$479,999 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$117,536 ………. Income Requirement

$2,438 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$520 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$50 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$65 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,073 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$407 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$630 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$201 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$75 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,312 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,000 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,000 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,800 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$120,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$136,800 ………. Total Cash Costs

$35,400 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$172,200 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 4121 OLD MILL St Irvine, CA 92604

——————————————————————————

Beds: 2

Baths: 2 baths

Home size: 1,192 sq ft

($503 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 5,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1972

Days on Market: 126

Listing Updated: 40447

MLS Number: A10060545

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: El Camino Real

Tract: 0

——————————————————————————

LARGE 2 BEDROOM HOME WITH LIVING ROOM,DINING ROOM KITCHEN FAMJLY ROOM WITH COUNTER,WALKOUT TO SIDE .BEAUTIFUL BACKYARD WITH LOTS OF FRUIT TREES.'TILE FLOOR IN LIVING ROOM,DINING ROOM,KITCHEN, FAMILY ROOM,2 BATHROOM. CARPET IN BEDROOMS. VERY BRIGHT HOME. HOUSE FACES WEST.DOUBLE FRONT ATTACHED GARAGE WITH ENTRANCE INTO THE HOUSE.SHOWS VERY GOOD.READY TO MOVE IN.ON A CUL DE SAC.TWO FULL BATHS . COULD BE ADDED ON UPSTAIRS AND BACK AND FRONT.MUST SEE.IT LOOKS LARGER THAN IT IS .MUST SEE TO BELIEVE.BEAUTIFUL BACK YARD. NOTE: OWNER MAY carry a new first mortgage FOR $460,000 at 6% INTEREST FOR 5 YEARS TERM,INTEREST ONLY.PAYMENT,$140,000 DOWN. NO SECONDS. TO BE $2300 PLUS 1/12 TAXES A MONTH.PURCHASE PRICE MUST BE $600,000.bUYERS TO PAY 1% CLOSING COSTS PLUS TRASFER FEES AND RECORDING FESS AND OTHER FEES NECCESARY TO CLOSE,INCLUDING ALL ESCROW FEES AND TITLE. BUYERS MUST HAVE GOOD CREDIT AND PROOF OF DOWNPAYENT MUST BE SUBMITED WITH THE OFFER.FAMILY ROOM CAN BE CONVERTED TO THIRD BEDROOM.

Financial ripoff

Do you follow the financing terms in the description above? This owner — who is underwater — wants to sell this home by carrying a pass-through note for what he paid for the house and he wants a $140,000 profit as a cash down payment. Please tell me nobody is stupid enough to take this deal.

What Really Prompts Borrowers to Accelerate Their Default?

A series of new studies on borrower behavior shed some light on the motivations behind those who quit paying their mortgages.

Irvine Home Address … 23 FOXHOLLOW Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price …… $319,900

On and on we're charging to the place so many seek

In perfect synchronicity of which so many speak

We feel so close to heaven in this roaring heavy load

And then in sheer abandonment, we shatter and explode.

Judas Priest — Turbo Lover

Strategic default: the abandonment of mortgage and property. A financial explosion.

Most buyers of property were seeking riches from appreciation. They all enjoyed the synchronized movements of the market when everyone was clamoring for more property. Trees don't grow to the sky, and no matter how close prices get to heaven, nirvana is always out of reach.

Strategic Defaults Threaten All Major U.S. Housing Markets

Posted by Keith Jurow 09/30/10 8:00 AM EST

In my last article, we examined the shadow inventory to determine how many distressed properties (not on MLS) were almost certain to be forced onto the market in the not-to-distant future.

For a sensible follow up, let's take an in-depth look at so-called "strategic defaults" to see how many homeowners are likely to "walk away" from their mortgage debt although they might be financially able to continue paying it.

Strategic Default Defined

According to Wikipedia, a strategic default is "the decision by a borrower to stop making payments (i.e., default) on a debt despite having the financial ability to make the payments." This has become the commonly accepted view.

From Accelerated Default: What Strategic Default Really Is: "There is no accepted definition of strategic default. Lenders have tried to define the issue as any borrower who is capable of making a payment and chooses not to. On the surface that sounds reasonable, but that misses a very important distinction. Some people chose to default because they know they can't afford the home and they are merely choosing the timing of the inevitable.

When I think about strategic default, I think about people who chose the timing of their default when there is little reasonable hope of having equity and they are facing escalating payments. The only thing strategic about the default is the timing, not whether or not they will lose the home."

In a recent, thorough study of strategic defaults, an effort was made to narrow its definition even more specifically. The report examining 6.6 million first lien mortgages was published this past April by Morgan Stanley analysts. They considered a default to be strategic only if a borrower went from being current on the debt to 90 days delinquent in consecutive months "without any curing in between or thereafter."

The authors went further and included two other prerequisites. First, the borrower had to be "underwater" on the first lien mortgage. Second, the homeowner had to have an outstanding non-mortgage debt balance of more than $10,000. The purpose of this last requirement was explained to me in a phone conversation with the lead analyst. He clarified that unless the borrower had at least $10,000 in non-mortgage debts which continued to be kept current; it was very likely that the mortgage default was induced by the inability to continue making the payments.

While this definition by the Morgan Stanley analysts is plausible, I consider it to be too narrow. It excludes too many borrowers who choose to stop paying the mortgage even though they may miss payments on some of their other debt obligations. I define a strategic defaulter to be any borrower who goes from never having missed a mortgage payment directly into a 90 day default. We'll examine a graph a little later which clearly illustrates this definition.

This definition is not a bad way to identify people who default by choice, but it doesn't necessarily tell us why they made the choice. Many people who financially implode keep it all together until the reach a breaking point where they capitulate. The only thing we can be sure of about the people Mr. Jarow has singled out is that they were decisive. Once they stopped making payments, they didn't bother to play around with loan modifications or otherwise game the system.

I believe it is important to note that most people chose to default because they know continuing to pay is futile. Just because someone is capable of continuing a futile act doesn't mean that stopping is an irrational decision. In fact, those that acclerate their defaults are far more rational than those who continue to pay when it makes no financial sense for them to do so.

Why Do Homeowners Walk Away from Their Mortgage?

In the midst of the housing bubble, it was inconceivable that a homeowner would voluntarily stop making payments on the mortgage and lapse into default while having the financial means to remain current on the loan.

Then something happened which changed everything. Prices leveled off in 2006 before starting to decline. With certain exceptions, they have been falling ever since around the country. In recent memory, this was something totally new and it has radically altered how homeowners view their house.

In those metros where prices soared the most during the housing bubble and collapsed most severely, many homeowners who have strategically defaulted shared three essential assumptions:

1. The value of their home would not recover to their original purchase price for quite a few years.

2. They could rent a house similar to theirs for considerably less than what they were paying on the mortgage.

3. They could sock away tens of thousands of dollars by stopping mortgage payments before the lender finally got around to foreclosing.

Notice the considerable value lenders obtained by their failure to foreclose. Locally, where house prices are still elevated above reason, people believe house prices will return to peak valuations in a few years and the HELOC party will be back on. Denial keeps people making payments who would ordinarily accelerate their default. Many families in Orange County cannot afford their houses. Many have already defaulted. Few have been foreclosed on so prices remain elevated, and the hopeless maintain denial of a brighter tomorrow.

Put yourself into the mind and the shoes of an underwater homeowner who held these three assumptions. The temptation to default became very difficult to resist. What would you have done?

The author presumes everyone believes accelerated default is wrong. He portrays it as something evil that people are tempted with. It isn't the default that is a tempting evil, it was taking out the loan in the first place. If someone goes out on an all night bender, are they tempted by evil aspirin in the morning? People who accelerate their defaults are merely curing the problem that was created by their earlier mistakes.

Now you may ask: What has kept most underwater homeowners from defaulting?

Why Do Struggling Homeowners Keep Paying Their Mortgages?

This is not an easy question to answer. I suggest that you take a look at a very thorough discussion of this issue in a paper written by Brent White, a professor of law at the University of Arizona and published in February 2010. Its title is "Underwater and Not Walking Away: Shame, Fear and the Social Management of the Social Crisis." He asserts that there are strong societal norms and pressures that lead to feelings of shame, fear and guilt which prevent many underwater homeowners from choosing to default.

He also cites the strong moral condemnation heaped on strategic defaulters by the press as well as by significant political figures. Take the speech given in March 2008 by then Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson. Paulson declared on national television: "Let me emphasize, any homeowner who can afford his mortgage payment but chooses to walk away from an underwater property is simply a speculator – and one who is not honoring his obligations." Coming from the former Chairman of a Wall Street firm that earns billions every year by speculating, these words had a certain hollow ring to them.

Strategic Default Is Merely Collecting On Home Price Protection Insurance Sold By Lenders

Walking Away from a Mortgage to Secure Their Children’s Future

Two Key Studies Show that Strategic Defaults Continue to Grow

Within the past six months, two important studies were published which have tried to get a handle on strategic defaults. First came the April report by three Morgan Stanley analysts entitled "Understanding Strategic Defaults." Remember their narrow definition of a strategic defaulter which I described earlier:

1. an underwater homeowner who goes straight from being current on the mortgage to a 90+ day delinquency "without any curing in between or thereafter"

2. has an outstanding non-mortgage debt balance of at least $10,000 which does not become delinquent

The study analyzed 6.5 million anonymous credit reports from TransUnion's enormous database while focusing on first lien mortgages taken out between 2004 and 2007.

One conclusion which the authors reach is that the percentage of defaults which they label strategic has risen steadily since early 2007. By the end of 2009, 12% of all defaults were strategic. Even more significant is that loans originating in 2007 have a significantly higher proportion of defaults which are strategic than those originated in 2004.

Interesting. It appears that people who have not been in the home as long are more prone to walk away. Are they less attached? Since their values went nowhere but down, did they fail to get a taste of kool aid to keep them hooked?

The following chart clearly shows this difference.

kj-09292010-chart-1.jpg

It is also important to note that with higher Vantage credit scores, the strategic default rate rises very sharply. [Vantage scoring was developed jointly by the three credit reporting agencies and now competes with FICO scoring].

Is anyone else surprised that strategice default is more common among people with good credit scores? I guess we really are all subprime now.

Another Morgan Stanley chart shows us that for loans originated in 2007, the strategic default percentage also climbs with higher credit scores.

kj-09292010-chart-2.jpg

Notice that although the percentage of loans which default at each Vantage score level declines, the percentage of defaults which are strategic rises. A fairly safe conclusion to draw from these two charts is that homeowners with high credit scores have less to lose by walking away from their mortgage. The provider of these credit scores, VantageScore Solutions, has reported that the credit score of a homeowner who defaults and ends up in foreclosure falls by an average of 21%. This is probably acceptable for a borrower who can pocket perhaps $40,000 to $60,000 or more by stopping the mortgage payment.

Very interesting data. If you had an 800 FICO score, a strategic default will lower it 160 points to a value of 640. It probably doesn't take long to bring that up enough to qualify for most forms of credit, albeit at a higher rate.

There is one more key chart from the study that is worth looking at. This one looks at strategic default rates for different original loan balances.

kj-09292010-chart-3.jpg

Note that the size of the original loan balance has little impact on the strategic default rate.

Rich people and poor people accelerate their defaults at the same rate. I would have guessed that wealthier people would hold out longer by drawing on other sources of credit. Apparently not.

The Key Factor Behind Strategic Defaults

Then what is the decisive factor that causes a strategic default? To answer this, we need to turn to the other recent study.

This past May, a very significant study on strategic defaults was published by the Federal Reserve Board. Entitled "The Depth of Negative Equity and Mortgage Default Decisions," the study was extremely focused in scope. It examined 133,000 non-prime first lien purchase mortgages originated in 2006 in the four bubble states where prices collapsed the most — California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. All of the loans had 100% financing with no down payment. These loans came to be known as 80/20s – an 80% first lien and a 20% piggy back second lien. It's hard to remember that those deals once flourished.

The first conclusion to note is that an astounding 80% of all these homeowners had defaulted by September 2009.

Anecdotally, I am not surprised by that number. Do you remember back in 2007 and 2008 many of the properties I profiled were 100% financing walkaways. By the end of 2008 and into 2009, we stopped seeing those and we began seeing people who had put 5% to 10% down. It is still rare to see a default where the owner put 20% or more down and there was no HELOC abuse.

Half the defaults occurred in less than 18 months from origination date. During that time, prices had dropped by roughly 20%. By September 2009 when the study's observation period ended, median prices had fallen another 20%.

The study really zeroes in on the impact which negative equity has on the decision to walk away from the mortgage. Take a look at this first chart which shows strategic default percentages at different degrees of being underwater.

kj-09292010-chart-4.jpg

Notice that the percentage of defaults which are strategic rises steadily as negative equity increases. For example, with FICO scores between 660 and 720, roughly 45% of defaults are strategic when the mortgage amount is 50% more than the value of the home. When the loan is 70% more than the house's value, 60% of the defaults were strategic.

Now take a look at this last chart. It focuses on the impact which negative equity has on strategic defaults based upon whether or not the homeowner missed any mortgage payments prior to defaulting.

kj-09292010-chart-5.jpg

This chart shows what I consider to be the best measure of strategic defaulters. It separates defaulting homeowners by whether or not they missed any mortgage payments prior to defaulting. As I see it, a homeowner who suddenly goes from never missing a mortgage payment to defaulting has made a conscious decision to default. The chart reveals that when the mortgage exceeds the home value by 60%, roughly 55% of the defaults are considered to be strategic. For those strategic defaulters who are this far underwater, the benefits of stopping the mortgage payment outweigh the drawbacks (or "costs" as the authors portray it) enough to overcome whatever reservations they might have about walking away.

Intuitively, this makes sense: the further you are underwater, the more hopeless your situation, so you are far more likely to accelerate your default. With deeply underwater homeowners — like anyone who has not defaulted already in Las Vegas — true strategic default becomes much more common. I am sure I would default on my mortgage if I were 50% underwater. Anyone that far underwater is stupid not to default.

Where Do We Go From Here?

The implications of this FRB report are scary. Keep in mind that 80% of the 133,000 no down payment loans examined had gone into default within three years. Clearly, homeowners with no skin in the game have little incentive to continue paying the loan when the property goes further and further underwater.

While many of these 80/20 zero down payment loans have already gone into default, there are still a large number of them originated in 2004-2005 which have not. We know from LoanPerformance that roughly 33% of all the Alt A loans that were securitized in 2004-2006 were 80/20 no down payment deals. Over 20% of all the subprime loans in these mortgage-backed security pools had no down payments. These figures are confirmed by the Liar Loan study which I referred to in a previous article. It found that 28% of the more than 700,000 loans examined in that report which had been originated between 2004 and 2007 were 80/20 no down payment deals.

The problem of strategic defaults goes far beyond those homeowners who put nothing down when they bought their home. Although the Morgan Stanley study found that only 12% of all the defaults observed were homeowners walking away from the mortgage, I think their definition of a strategic defaulter is much too narrow.

The chart from that study which we looked at earlier shows strategic default rates when the loan exceeded the home value by 20-60%. Total default rates were over 40% for mortgages of all sizes. This tells me that a substantial proportion of all these defaults by underwater homeowners were walk-aways.

It is not only the four worst bubble states examined in the FRB study to which these two reports are applicable. Remember, prices have declined by 30% or more in just about all of the 25 large metros that had the highest number of distressed properties which I examined in my previous article on the shadow inventory.

Another chart from the Morgan Stanley study showed that for all the 6.6 million loans analyzed, the percentage of them defaulting rose steadily from 45% for loans with a LTV of 100 to 63% for loans with a LTV of 155. It seems clear from these two reports that as home values continue to decline and LTV ratios rise, the number of homeowners choosing to strategically default and walk away from their mortgage obligation will relentlessly grow. That means real trouble for all major housing markets around the country.

Where we go from here is simple: we foreclose on the squatters and let whatever happens happen. There is no real dilemma here. We just don't want to do what is necessary and endure the pain that goes along with it.

The HELOC Lifestyle

California is the only place in the world where people come to believe they can live on home price appreciation as a reliable source of income. It isn't surprising that real estate takes on a special level of desirability when each house comes with a built-in ATM machine. It becomes obvious that people come to expect and rely on this source of income when you witness them steadily and methodically increasing their mortgage balance.

Of course, since banks allow people to borrow this money and become dependant upon this source of income, houses become desirable beyond all reason. The competition for free money becomes intense, house prices rise, and when the market rally fizzles, prices crash back to earth, and the banks lose billions of dollars.

  • The owners of today's featured property paid $175,000 on 3/18/1999. They used a $169,750 first mortgage and a $5,250 down payment.
  • On 11/15/2001 they refinanced with a $229,500 first mortgage.
  • On 12/4/2002 they refinanced with a $240,000 first mortgage.
  • On 2/11/2003 they refinanced with a $278,000 first mortgage.
  • On 11/1/2004 they refinanced with a $300,000 first mortgage.
  • On 2/11/2008 they refinanced with a $323,000 first mortgage.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal was $153,250.
  • Total squatting time is about 15 months so far.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 09/14/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/24/2010

Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 03/09/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 10/30/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

This is what passes for good mortgage management in California. They tried to live within their means so to speak; they only spent what they perceived to be within the bounds of normal appreciation for their property. Of course, they were wrong, but that is the mindset by which they approached their mortgage management.

Am I the only one who thinks this is crazy?

Irvine Home Address … 23 FOXHOLLOW Irvine, CA 92614

Resale Home Price … $319,900

Home Purchase Price … $175,000

Home Purchase Date …. 3/18/1999

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $125,706

Percent Change ………. 71.8%

Annual Appreciation … 5.2%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$319,900 ………. Asking Price

$11,197 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.74% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$308,704 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$64,292 ………. Income Requirement

$1,608 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$277 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$27 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$340 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,252 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$150 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$389 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$20 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$40 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,774 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$3,199 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$3,199 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$3,087 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$11,197 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$20,682 ………. Total Cash Costs

$27,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$47,782 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 23 FOXHOLLOW Irvine, CA 92614

——————————————————————————

Beds: 3

Baths: 1 full 1 part baths

Home size: 1,300 sq ft

($246 / sq ft)

Lot Size: n/a

Year Built: 1985

Days on Market: 17

Listing Updated: 40443

MLS Number: S632715

Property Type: Condominium, Residential

Community: Woodbridge

Tract: St

——————————————————————————

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Desirable 3 bedroom two story condominium in the Somerset Tract near an amazing and tranquil rest and park area, Green Belt and Pool. This perfect starter home includes super upgraded laminate and travertine floors. Kitchen has gas stove and stainless steel sink. Crown moulding and 3 inch baseboards grace each of the rooms, along with custom paint, smooth ceilings, and textured walls. For your comfort, home also features an oversized five year old air conditioner. Bathrooms feature new light fixtures. Living Room is showcased with a slate Fireplace and beautiful French Doors that open on to the Patio with an 8 year old fruit bearing guava tree. Enjoy all the Woodbridge area amenities, including the Lakes, Pools, Parks, Schools and Shopping. This home is lovingly maintained by this family and not a short sale fixer upper.

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter