I want to break free I want to break free I want to break free from your lies You’re so self-satisfied I don’t need you I got to to break free God knows, God knows I want to break free
Are any of you getting away to Las Vegas this weekend? Perhaps you might want to speculate in their housing market. Others have done so well recently… not!
If there is any market in the country that is the textbook example of a bubble it is Las Vegas. Take a good look at the Case-Shiller price chart for Las Vegas and the graphic for the psychological stages of a bubble market, and you see reality matches the concept perfectly.
There is a friend of my wife’s who is a lifelong Las Vegas resident. The condo she bought in 1994 has recently had comps in the same complex sell for 5% less than she paid in 1994.
That is an overshoot of fundamentals signalling market despair.
Beds 3 Baths 3 baths Size 1,904 sq ft ($309 / sq ft) Lot Size n/a Year Built 2001 Days on Market 3 Listing Updated 10/7/2009 MLS Number P706106 Property Type Condominium, Residential Community West Irvine Tract Othr
According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.
Beautiful open floor plan with plenty of upgrades including built in entertainment center. Granite countertops throughout, Jet spa tub, Large Master Bedroom with Master retreat large enough for office. Window shutters throughout. Great schoold district. Close to shopping, entertainment and freeways.
Today’s featured property was originally purchased for $679,000 on 12/3/2004. The owner used a $543,200 first mortgage and a $135,800 downpayment. On 10/28/2005 he opened a HELOC for $107,000, but it isn’t clear that he took it out and spent it. He probably wishes he did.
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 07/22/2009 Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale) Document #: 2009000391119
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 04/10/2009 Document Type: Notice of Default Document #: 2009000177255
Downey Savings — or now the FDIC — owns the property. They are hoping to make a few bucks back on the flip. This poor guy has all the damage of a foreclosure, but he didn’t extract his equity and have any fun. Too bad.
And so concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog, chronicling the Irvine home market since September of 2006.
Late at night Im takin you home I say I wanna stay, you say you wanna be alone You say you dont love me, girl you cant hide your desire `cause when we kiss, fire
Something restarted a fire in me; HELOC abuse is starting to make me angry again. (BTW, we have added Housing Bubble News to our sidebar.) Perhaps it was a full week of HELOC abuse posts. I didn’t seek them out; HELOC former HELOC abusers represent many of the houses for sale right now, particularly at lower prices.
Day after day of $250,000 or more of mortgage equity withdrawal and you become numb to the whole idea. Have you ever stopped to ponder how much spending $250,000 of extra disposable income really is? It pays off the typical American’s credit card debt more than 12 times over. It is probably more take home pay than many of these people had during the same period.
Our cartoon debtor in red is staring at $18,654, which is a typical families debt load. Many people will burn through a pile like that in just a few years and spend forever paying it back — or seek out ways to avoid paying it back at all.
Think about some irresponsible shopping sprees you have gone on (we have all done it). When the bills came due, and you had to deal with the financial hangover, imagine if you had the magic money machine that kept making your cash pile larger, even as you worked to make it smaller. What could be better than that?
What do you think would happen if every borrower in California had the same idea? and they borrowed the equity in their homes?
Our individual HELOC abusing homeowner in the red shirt is the little speck on the left side. The rest is the stack of pallets loaded with bundles of consumer debts consolidated into mortgages through refinancing and mortgage equity withdrawal.
How big is the national problem?
OK, OK, the debt is big. So what?
Well, the lenders lost much of that money, and when lenders lose money, it ceases to exist in our financial system, and we end up with deflation, zero percent interest rates (real interest rates are still high), and a stagnant economy. The worst part is that US taxpayers are being stuck with the bills. We will end up paying for this mistake for a generation.
In short, we will all be working — and paying our taxes — to pay off the spending sprees of HELOC abusers everywhere.
They got to have all the fun and spend irresponsibly while you worked hard, denied yourself indulgences and saved. They didn’t pay the borrowed money back, so now you have to pay it back for them. How do you feel about that? And what has this done to our society?
Beds 3 Baths 2 baths Size 1,116 sq ft ($376 / sq ft) Lot Size 5,096 sq ft Year Built 1971 Days on Market 3 Listing Updated 10/7/2009 MLS Number S592003 Property Type Single Family, Residential Community El Camino Real Tract Wl
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
Beautiful single story detached home. Remodeled Kitchen with large dining area with breakfast counter and bar with granite. Bathrooms were also remodeled in 2005 with new cabinets with granite counters. Laminate flooring in front room with tile in kitchen. All ceilings are scraped and textured. Vaulted ceiling in the living room with a nice cozy fireplace. Crown molding in master bedroom. Garage attic storage w/hide a ladder. Over 5000 sq ft large lot with newer fence. Gas built in range. Newer roof. No Mello Roos or HOA’s. Close to Heritage Park Library and community center.
Today’s featured property is an interesting study in how coupling can lead to HELOC abuse.
This property was purchased on 9/22/2000 by a single man for $265,000. He used a $251,750 first mortgage and a $13,250 downpayment.
On 4/12/2004 a wife appears on title, and together they refinanced the first mortgage for $315,000. Paid for the honeymoon, right?
On 9/16/2004 they refinanced again for $381,500.
On 3/30/2005 they opened a stand-alone second for $50,000.
On 1/5/2006 they opened a stand-alone second for $50,000 and a $20,000 HELOC.
On 8/2/2006 they refinanced one last time with a stand-alone second for $119,100.
Total property debt is $500,600.
Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $248,850.
The guy goes 4 years without touching his equity, then he gets married and spends $250,000 in just over 2 years. Cause and effect? I don’t know, but it is an interesting change in behavior coincidental with the marriage. You decide… not that it matters….
{book5}
I was reading Mish’s blog yesterday, and he posed a hypothetical question I believe I can answer:
Sadly,
for all the 14 Trillion expansion in the Fed’s balance sheet, the $1+
trillion in various stimulus programs, and monetary printing to the
tune of $1 trillion as well, the economy has nothing to show for it
other than a stock market rally.
The wealthy have been bailed
out, while the middle class and poor are stuck without a job in
underwater mortgages, hoping for scraps of mortgage payment reductions
when many would be better off walking away. Meanwhile boomers are
headed into retirement, underfunded and scared half to death.
What did we get? We paid off this former owner’s $248,850 in HELOC abuse — that’s what we get.
Walking down the hall Like a soft heartbeat I won’t wake up Cause by the time that I do you’ll be gone I won’t look back On a past so long I won’t look back On the things gone wrong I won’t look back Cause by the time that I do you’ll be gone
Fifteen years, and $350,000 later, these owners have spent their home. Their equity is gone, spent on who knows what. Perhaps they bought some video games?
I have been playing far too much Mario Kart Wii lately. My entertaining family diversion inspired today’s post….
Turtle Rock Speedway
Tucked away in a quiet corner of Irvine is one of the most exciting racing circuits in the country. It doesn’t accommodate motor vehicles, and it probably would not stand up to a pack of bicycles, but if you are looking for a great place to race your children on bikes, scooters, rollerblades or even on foot, then Turtle Rock Speedway is waiting for you.
If you don’t have two cars to coordinate dropoff and pickup, you will
either have to park at the top of the hill, race down, then walk all
the way back up, or you can park at William R. Mason Park, walk up the
hill to the starting point, and finish near your car. I personally
would prefer the latter.
The course itself is 1.62 miles, and it drops significantly in elevation from start to finish. If you are on wheels, you can complete the entire course with minimal effort.
It starts at a park at the intersection of Sycamore Creek and Turtle Rock Drive. There is a neighborhood park there with private pool and tennis for Turtle Rock residents. (They will probably be annoyed if you park your car there, but too bad, that is where the track begins.)
First, as a disclaimer, I am not encouraging anyone to go flying down this hill at breakneck speeds. If you go there, race too fast and hurt yourself, you are a fool who needed no encouragement from me.
The course starts in a district I call the “Suburban Slalom.” It is characterized by gently falling terrain, eucalyptus canopies, and…
numerous entertaining corners.
This part of the track presents the best viewing opportunities for spectators, particularly on the open lawns elevated above the track.
Once you wend your way ’round the perilous slalom, you will be heading steeply downhill into Heaven’s Gate.
Once you have exited the tunnel, you will circle the Catholic Church at the corner — hence Heaven’s Gate. (Also, if you hate this post, you can use the Heaven’s Gate reference to the worst movie ever made.)
From there, the course moves back between the condos in another tree-lined avenue. This is the location to make your move. The track begins to drop off more steeply as you make the final decent from the hillside down to the Creekside Flats.
You can pick up too much speed if you are not careful, and when you emerge from the trees, there is a sharp right turn at the Devil’s Elbow, then there is another sharp bender to the left. From there it is a race across the Creekside Flats to one of three good finish-line locations.
The intersection of Culver and University is as far as the path can
take you without crossing any streets, so it is a natural location to
stop. The first finishing location is where a small tributary crosses the main creek. It is a low point just before an important fork, and there is plenty of time to stop before getting to the streets. The other finish lines are closer to the street. You should decide in advance in case you have a photo finish.
Suburban Hiking in Turtle Rock
Turtle Rock, like most Irvine Villages, has wonderful nieghborhood amenities. The three-mile long walking trail is part of a larger network that ties together William R. Mason Park with Turtle Creek Community Park. This is one of the more interesting suburban hikes in our area.
If you start in either park, you will have an uphill trudge to begin your journey. The drop to Turtle Creek Community Park is steeper, but a bit less interesting to travel. The starting point for Speedway Turtle Rock is a park at the half-way point on this hike. If you plan to walk, I would allow an hour each way. There are public restrooms at the parks at each end of the trail.
{book}
Let’s take a look at a property near Speedway Turtle Rock in University Park.
Beds 3 Baths 2 baths Size 1,741 sq ft ($287 / sq ft) Lot Size 4,753 sq ft Year Built 1967 Days on Market 2 Listing Updated 10/8/2009 MLS Number S591952 Property Type Single Family, Residential Community Westpark Tract Othr
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
Open floorplan, large kitchen, dining room area opens to patio and rear yard. 3 bed, 2 bath, home in desireable Irvine area on cul de sac near UC and fwys, needs TLC. Beautiful tennis facility, pool, spa and park
This house was purchased for $264,000 on 4/22/1995. The owners used a $185,300 first mortgage and a $78,700 downpayment. Not to worry, they got their downpayment back and then some.
On 8/30/2005 they refinanced the first mortgage for $405,000 and opened a HELOC for $125,000.
Total property debt $530,000.
Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $344,700.
Foreclosure Record Recording Date: 06/04/2009 Document Type: Notice of Default Document #: 2009000286409
Where is all that HELOC money? Gone. Where are the owners going to be soon? Gone.
The median sales price is a reasonable measure of property values in a market; however, (1) the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is superior for tracking relative price change and market price direction, and (2) cost per-square-foot is superior for determining what was obtained for the money spent.
And the years rolled slowly past And I found myself alone Surrounded by strangers I thought were my friends I found myself further and further from my home And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed
Moving eight miles a minute for months at a time Breaking all of the rules that would bend I began to find myself searchin’ Searching for shelter again and again
Against the wind A little something against the wind I found myself seeking shelter Against the wind
The median sales prices does not give any indication of what was obtained for the money spent. Median prices may be flat while people are either getting more for their money or settling for less. Also, the median sales price when charted over time occasionally gives false signals when prices appear to be moving on one direction when the prices of individual properties in the market are moving another. To deal with these problems with the median, alternate measures of pricing are used.
Cost Per-Square-Foot
Many data reporting services measure, record, and report the average
sales cost on a per-square-foot basis to address the problem of
evaluating what buyers are getting for their money. For instance, in a
declining market if people start buying much larger homes at the limit
of affordability, the generic median sales price would remain
unchanged, but since buyers are getting much larger homes for the same
money, the average cost per-square-foot would decline accordingly. This
makes the average cost per-square-foot a superior measure for capturing
qualitative changes in house prices; however, this method of
measurement does not capture the relative quality of the square footage
purchased, only the price paid for it. High quality finishes may
justify a higher price per square foot. There is no way to objectively
evaluate the impact finish quality has on home prices. The main
problems with using the average cost per-square-foot to measure price
is that it does not provide a number comparable to sales prices since
it has been divided by square feet, and it is not widely measured and
reported.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
To address some of the weaknesses of the generic median sales price
as a measure of market value, Karl Case and Robert Shiller developed
the Case-Shiller indices for measuring market trends. This index
measures the change in price of repeat sales. It solves the dilemma of
pricing like-kind properties–almost. Although these indices capture the
price movements of individual properties far better than the generic
median sales price, it does not take into account value added through
renovation and improvement. To address this issue, the index gives less
weight to extreme price changes assuming the outlier is a significant
renovation. However, if there is a market-wide renovation of
properties, as was the case in many markets during the Great Housing
Bubble; this will cause a distortion in the index.
National S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, 1987-2007
The other weaknesses
of the Case Shiller indices concern how and where it is reported. Since
it is an index of relative price change rather than a direct measure of
price, the index is reported as an arbitrary number based on a baseline
date; therefore, the numbers are not useful for evaluating current
pricing. The index is also confined to 20 large metropolitan areas
around the United States. The large geographical coverage areas are
required to obtain enough repeat sales to construct a smooth index. The
broad yet limited geographical coverage fails to capture price changes
in smaller markets. Also, since the Case-Shiller index is a measure of
changes in prices of sales of the same home, it does not include any
newly constructed homes. No measure is perfect, but the Case-Shiller
index is the best at measuring historic movements in pricing because
its methodology is focused on repeat sales of the same property.
Los Angeles S&P/Case-Shiller Index, 1987-2007
{book}
The Great Housing Bubble was an asset bubble of unprecedented
proportions. Between 2000 and 2006, home prices increased 45%
nationally, and in California home prices increased 135%. [iv] Had this
amazing price increase coincided with a period of high inflation, it
may not have been indicative of a price bubble, merely the general
increase in prices of all goods and services; however, inflation was
low during this period. The inflation adjusted price increases
nationwide were 23% and in California it was 100%. There was no great
improvement in the quality of houses justifying the higher prices.
Although some homeowners made cosmetic improvements, the vast majority
of homes were unchanged during this period, and many deteriorated with
age. Resale homes did not undergo any form of manufacturing process
where value was added to the final product. There was little real
wealth created during the bubble, just a temporary exaggeration of
value.
Beds 1 Baths 1 bath Size 728 sq ft ($330 / sq ft) Lot Size n/a Year Built 1989 Days on Market 1 Listing Updated 10/8/2009 MLS Number P706322 Property Type Condominium, Residential Community Westpark Tract Ti
According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.
Bright, one bedroom one bath, lower unit in great location. Kitchen has tile counters, wood/laminate cabinets and breakfast bar; spacious living room with window shutters; bedroom with walk-in closet; bathroom has tile flooring and fiberglass shower enclosure; washer/dryer connections located at front courtyard closet. Great for individual, new couple or investor. Close to schools and shopping centers.
Today’s featured property is a 2003 rollback. It was originally purchased with 100% financing on 10/29/2003. The owners later expanded their $51,000 second mortgage by opening a $271,200 HELOC and a $67,800 HELOC. Their total property debt was $543,000, and mortgage equity withdrawal was $339,000. The lender is actually losing about $350,000.
Cause I was born lonely down by the riverside Learned to spin fortune wheels, and throw dice And I was just thirteen when I had to leave home Knew I couldn’t stick around, I had to roam
But I got to ramble (ramblin’ man) Oh I got to gamble (gamblin’ man) Got to got to ramble (ramblin’ man) I was born a ramblin’ gamblin’ man Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Man — Bob Seger
Is everyone ready to gamble on the housing market again? Are prices going up again? Are you sure?
Median as Housing Market Price Measurement
There is no perfect measure for any broad financial market activity.
Markets for stocks, bonds and other securities are the most widely
reported and measured financial markets. It is relatively easy to
measure activity in these markets because all sales are recorded at a
few central exchanges and the “products” are uniform (one share of
stock is equal to another). In contrast, real estate markets are much
more difficult to evaluate. Real estate transactions are recorded
into the public record in thousands of locations across the country.
Keeping an organized database of these records is such a daunting task
that the title insurance industry has taken this responsibility as part
of its business model, and many people are devoted to the arduous task
of obtaining and organizing these records on a daily basis.
Real estate
does not have the uniformity of stocks or other financial instruments.
Each property has unique qualities that differentiate it from all other
properties making like-kind comparisons very difficult. Geographical
location is a major influence on the value of real estate. Even if two
properties could be found with identical physical characteristics, the
values of these properties could vary considerably based on where they
are located. Ideally, a market measure would record the changes in
sales prices of identical assets or in the case of an index, a group of
similar assets. The unique nature of real estate assets makes it
difficult to use standard measures of reporting utilized in other
financial markets.
Due to the problems of asset uniformity and variability based on
location, real estate markets are typically measured using some form of
median pricing over a specified geographic area. The median is a
statistical measure of central tendency where half the data points are
above and half the data points are below. For instance, in a list of 5
numbers sorted by size ($100,000, $200,000, $300,000, $500,000,
$900,000,) the third number in the list ($300,000) would be the median
because it has two numbers that are larger and two numbers that are
smaller. The median ($300,000) is used rather than an average
($400,000) because a few very expensive properties can increase the
average significantly, and the resulting number does not represent the
bulk of the price activity in the market.
Median Home Prices, 1968-2006
Median is Not Perfect
One of the problems with a median as a measure of house prices is a
lag between when a top or a bottom actually occurs and when this top or
bottom is reflected in the index. During the beginning of a market
decline, the lower end of the market has a more dramatic drop in volume
than the top of the market. This causes the median to stay at
artificially high levels not reflective of pricing of individual
properties in the market. In other words, for a time things look better
than they are.
Then as the price decline takes hold, transaction volume picks up at the low end and drys up at the high end. The flood of low-end transactions at much lower price points makes the median snap back and make the decline look worse than it really is.
Finally, as the price decline wears on, transaction volume will begin to accelerate at the high end — at much lower price points. This activity is still above the median, so the median moves higher whereas prices are actually moving lower.
At the beginning of a market rally, transaction volume
picks up at the bottom of the market at first restarting the chain of
move ups. During this time, the prices of individual properties can be
moving higher, but since the heavy transaction volume is at the low
end, the median will actually move lower.
With all variability caused by changes in the product mix, the median is a poor record of market tops and bottoms, and it is prone to show a direction of market prices that is incongruous with what is happening with individual properties.
Other Distortions of Median
The median has another significant weakness: it does not indicate
the value buyers are obtaining in the market. The houses or structures
built on the land compose the most significant portion of real estate
value in most markets. These structures deteriorate over time and
require routine maintenance that is often deferred. During times of
prosperity, many people renovate homes to add value and improve their
living conditions. The impact of deterioration and renovation of
individual properties is not reflected in the median resale value.
Also, at the time of sale, there are often buyer incentives which
inflate the recorded sales price relative to the actual cost to the
buyer. These buyer incentives also distort the median sales price as a
measure of value.
Median is the Best We Have
With all these distortions of market reality, it is a wonder the
median is used at all. Winston Churchill noted, “It has been said that democracy is the
worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.” The same is true of the median. We use it not because it is perfect, but because it is the best available for the task. Despite its weaknesses, distortions in the index
are not extreme, and it is the best tool available that provides a
meaningful number.
Tomorrow, we will look at Alternate Market Price Measurements including the more reliable S&P/Case-Shiller Index.
Beds 4 Baths 2 full 1 part baths Size 1,873 sq ft ($384 / sq ft) Lot Size 5,500 sq ft Year Built 1972 Days on Market 3 Listing Updated 10/6/2009 MLS Number S591760 Property Type Single Family, Residential Community Walnut Tract Cp
Fantastic 2 story home located in the very desirable College park community. Enjoy this very open floor plan featuring 4 BR, 3 baths, formal dining room, very large living room and family room with view of pool. The home is extremely clean and has been very well maintained, new paint throughout much of the house, professionally cleaned carpets, and fantastic large backyard with pool for entertaining. Also enjoy the great association pool located just down the street from the property.
I must admit, this one made me sad when I reviewed it. When I saw a discretionary seller from 1973, I hoped I would find a property with zero debt. They bought 36 years ago; surely they paid it off by now, right? Well, this is Southern California…
By 2001, they had the debt up to $231,000. By the time they stopped borrowing in 2006 when they took out a 1-year ARM for $340,000. WTF is a long-term owner doing with a $340,000 1-year ARM? Sophisticated financial management?
I guess this won’t be a short sale as this is about a 50% LTV. I was hoping to profile a celebration of zero debt, and instead I find $340,000 worth of HELOC abuse. It is sad… 🙁
OK, OK, the debt is big. So what?
First, as a disclaimer, I am not encouraging anyone to go flying down this hill at breakneck speeds. If you go there, race too fast and hurt yourself, you are a fool who needed no encouragement from me.
The intersection of Culver and University is as far as the path can
